Uncertainty associated with river health assessment in a varying environment: The case of a predictive fish-based index in France

Sensitive biological measures of river ecosystem quality are needed to assess, maintain or restore ecological conditions of water bodies. Since our understanding of these complex systems is imperfect, decision-making requires recognizing uncertainty. In this study, a new predictive multi-metric index based on fish functional traits was developed to assess French rivers. Information on fish assemblage structure, local environment and human-induced disturbances of 1654 French river sites was compiled. A Bayesian framework was used to predict theoretical metric values in absence of human pressure and to estimate the uncertainty associated with these predictions. The uncertainty associated with the index score gives the confidence associated with the evaluation of site ecological conditions.Among the 228 potential metrics tested, only 11 were retained for the index computation. The final index is independent from natural variability and sensitive to human-induced disturbances. In particular, it is affected by the accumulation of different degradations and specific degradations including hydrological perturbations. Predictive uncertainty is globally lower for IPR+ than for underlying metrics.This new methodology seems appropriate to develop bio-indication tools accounting for uncertainty related to reference condition definition and could be extended to other biological groups and areas. Our results support the use of multi-metric indexes to assess rivers and strengthen the idea that examination of uncertainty could contribute greatly to the improvement of the assessment power of bio-indicators.     

Stable isotope-based statistical tools as ecological indicator of pollution sources in Mediterranean transitional water ecosystems

N-stable isotope analysis of macroalgae has become a popular method for the monitoring of nitrogen pollution in aquatic ecosystems. Basing on changes in their δ¹⁵N, macroalgae have been successfully used as biological traps to intercept nitrogen inputs. As different nitrogen sources differ in their isotopic signature, this technique provides useful information on the origin of pollutants and their extension in the water body. However, isotopic fractionation potentially resulting from microbial nitrogen processing, and indirect isotopic variations due to effects of physicochemical conditions on algal nutrient uptake and metabolism, may affect anthropogenic N isotopic values during transportation and assimilation. This in turn can affect the observed isotopic signature in the algal tissue, inducing isotopic variations not related to the origin of assimilated nitrogen, representing a “background noise” in isotope-based water pollution studies.In this study, we focused on three neighbouring coastal lakes (Caprolace, Fogliano and Sabaudia lakes) located south of Rome (Italy). Lakes were characterized by differences in terms of anthropogenic pressure (i.e. urbanization, cultivated crops, livestock grazing) and potential “background noise” levels (i.e. nutrient concentration, pH, microbial concentration). Our aim was to assess nitrogen isotopic variations in fragments of Ulva lactuca specimens after 48 h of submersion to identify and locate the origins of nitrogen pollutants affecting each lake. δ¹⁵N were obtained for replicated specimens of U. lactuca spatially distributed to cover the entire surface of each lake, previously collected from a benchmark, unpolluted site. In order to reduce the environmental background noise on isotopic observations, a Bayesian hierarchical model relating isotopic variation to environmental covariates and random spatial effects was used to describe and understand the distribution of isotopic signals in each lake.Our procedure (i) allowed to remove background noise and confounding effects from the observed isotopic signals; (ii) allowed to detect “hidden” pollution sources that would not be detected when not accounting for the confounding effect of environmental background noise; (iii) produced maps of the three lakes providing a clear representation of the isotopic signal variation even where background noise was high. Maps were useful to locate nitrogen pollution sources, identify the origin of the dissolved nitrogen and quantify the extent of pollutants, showing localized organic pollution impacting Sabaudia and Fogliano, but not Caprolace. This method provided a clear characterization of both intra- and inter-lake anthropogenic pressure gradients, representing a powerful approach to the ecological indication and nitrogen pollution management in complex systems, as transitional waterbodies are.     

Estimating the human appropriation of land in Brazil by means of an Input–Output Economic Model and Ecological Footprint analysis

As we confront the current environmental crisis, determining the biophysical base (e.g., materials, energy, land, and water) of nations has become paramount. With advanced economies benefiting from the import of resource-intensive primary goods originating from poorer parts of the world, especially emerging nations, these are dilapidating their natural capital. Brazil is one of such emerging economies, whose mining and farming activities, propping up its export-led economic growth, exert great pressure on the environment. In particular, farming has been shown to have one of the world's greatest environmental impacts, especially as a consequence of land use associated with cattle ranching. Since a nation-wide evaluation of land-use types across the whole sectorial spectrum of the country's economy is still lacking, we used the most recently available Input–Output Economic Model for Brazil and the Ecological Footprint method to identify those economic sectors with the greatest potential for appropriating portions of the natural world.Our results show that: (i) the biggest chunk of Brazil's Ecological Footprint is due to its Carbon Footprint and, in particular, emissions from cattle; (ii) only a few economic sectors exhibit high Ecological Footprint values, chiefly those belonging to livestock farming and energy production based on fossil fuels; (iii) excluding the soybeans and slaughter sectors, export-oriented sectors have below-average Ecological Footprint values; and (iv) the percentage of Brazil's Ecological Footprint due to household consumption (excluding imports) is three times bigger than that attributable to exports, with sectors belonging to livestock farming contributing the most to such disparity.These results underscore that the environmental impact of the Brazilian economy can be drastically reduced by tackling the emission-intensive production processes of a few sectors only and disincentivizing the domestic consumption of a narrow range of products, especially with respect to the livestock segment.     

The impact of hybrids between genetically modified crop plants and their related species: introgression and weediness

Assessing the impact of hybrids between transgenic plants and nontarget wild species involves answering several questions such as: (i) what are the hybridization and introgression rates; (ii) what is the behaviour of a transgene in a wild population; and (iii) what will be the consequences of the expression of a transgene in a wild population? These issues are discussed using results from experiments on oilseed rape and wild related Brassiceae. Evidence is given of large variations in the estimates of cross-fertilization probabilities. The first stage of introgression into wild populations is demonstrated to occur spontaneously through back-crossing. Population analysis may also be valuable to detect traces of past introgression. Data from the literature on weed biology, and especially herbicide resistance, are used to illustrate the behaviour of a new gene in weed populations. The need for computer models simulating the introgression process is stressed.     

Spatial evaluation of the ecological importance based on GIS for environmental management: A case study in Xingguo county of China

How to assort with the relationship between the urban construction and the maintenance of ecological security is a hot issue during the process of urbanization. The purpose of this study is to identify the key ecological land maintaining ecological security and to put forward some measures for environmental management. Based on the GIS technology, from the view of water security, biodiversity conservation, disaster protection, natural recreation security, and human disturbance, an integrated index is put forward to evaluate the ecological importance of regional space. Then, a GIS-based approach for evaluating ecological importance was created, with Xingguo county of China as a case study. The results show that the area of core eco-space in the study area accounts for 30% of the total area. These areas mainly consist of the core areas of regional river systems, wetlands, nature reserves, forest parks, and scenic spots and the endangered and protected zone of geological hazards. According to the spatial characteristics of ecological importance for different regions, this study proposes some zoning regulations and measures for environmental management.     

Risk assessment of heavy metal and metalloid toxicity through a contaminated vegetable (Cucurbita maxima) from wastewater irrigated area: A case study for a site-specific risk assessment in Jhang,Pakistan

The present research was conducted in district Jhang, Pakistan, to evaluate the concentration of metals/metalloids in soil and pumpkin (Cucurbita maxima) irrigated with domestic wastewater. Data revealed that the levels of metals and metalloids in soil samples from two different sites were below the safe limits except Cd, whereas, in the vegetable, the concentrations of As, Se, Ni, Mo, Pb, Mn, and Cu were above the safe limits. The levels of 12 metals and metalloids in the soil were ranged between 0.14 to 22.76 mg/kg at site-I and 0.16 to 22.13 mg/kg at site-II. The levels of these metals in the vegetable were found 0.35 to 61.13 mg/kg at site-I and 0.31 to 53.63 mg/kg at site-II. The transfer factor at both sites was highest for As and Co. The pollution load index recorded for Se, Cu, Cd, Mo, Pb, and Co was greater than 1. The daily intake of As, Mn, and Mo was above the oral reference dose, which reflects that the intake of pumpkin is not safe for the inhabitants of the selected sites. The control measures should be taken to phytoextract heavy metals and metalloids from polluted sites so as to reduce the health risks.     

重庆市生态风险预警等级划分及演化趋势模拟

生态风险预警等级评估和演化趋势模拟，可为生态风险管理提供可靠的辅助决策。以重庆市为研究对象，基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应模型，构建重庆市生态风险预警指标体系，采用正态云模型和集对分析法，定量分析重庆市生态风险时空分异特征和演化趋势。研究结果表明：（1）2013-2019年，重庆市生态风险值呈"上升-下降"的波动趋势，综合生态风险隶属于重警等级，生态风险综合值从0.295下降到0.278，生态环境逐年好转；（2）重庆市生态风险有下降、不变、先上升后降低、先降低后上升以及一直升高5种演化趋势，分别占比39%、16%、5%、21%、24%；（3）重庆市生态风险转移分为两个方向，2013-2016年生态风险空间分异性增大，中警、轻警和无警风险等级不断向东北、东南和西部四周分散转移；2016-2019年生态风险分布格局变化较小，重警风险区在东部聚集；（4）演化趋势模拟结果表明，未来重庆市生态风险降低的区县有13个，占比34%，生态环境有向好发展的趋势；生态风险上升的区县有25个，占比66%，生态环境会有所恶化，但是恶化程度较低。将生态风险等级划分与预警演化趋势相结合，能为城市生态风险管理提供科学依据。     

Planktonic indices in the evaluation of the ecological status and the trophic state of the longest lake in Poland

Due to the intensive mixing polymictic lakes should be homogenous. However, morphometric diversity and high water dynamics contribute to the differentiation of many parameters in various areas of the lakes. This study analyzes both phytoplankton and zooplankton to assess differences in water quality along the north–south axis of the longest lake in Poland. New phytoplankton indicators were applied for determining the lake's ecological status: the Q index based on functional groups and the PMPL (Phytoplankton Metric for Polish Lakes) index based on phytoplankton biomass. TSI_ROT index (Rotifer Trophic State Index), which comprises the percentage of species indicating a high trophic state in the indicatory group and the percentage of bacteriovorus in the Rotifera population, was used for zooplankton analysis.TP content was different at different sites – we observed its gradual increase from the south to the north. Spatial variation of phosphorus did not considerably affect plankton diversity. The phytoplankton was dominated by Oscillatoriales, typical of shallow, well-mixed eutrophic lakes. The ecological status of the lake based on the EQR (Ecological Quality Ratio) was poor or moderate. The zooplankton was dominated by rotifers (at almost all sites), which indicates a eutrophic state of the lake. The values of phytoplankton indices at the studied sites did not differ considerably; the differences resulted more from local conditions such as the contaminant inflow and the macrophyte development than water dynamics.We have demonstrated that in the lake dominated by filamentous Cyanobacteria the ecological status should be determined according to the PMPL index or other indices dependent on the dominant Cyanobacteria species. Since the Q index does not include the functional group S1, the results can lead to the false conclusion that water quality improves with an increased amount of phytoplankton. The high abundance of Cyanobacteria in the lake may have contributed to the poor growth of rotifers.