Simulation of nitrogen assimilation by heterotrophic soil microbial biomass

Assimilation of N by heterotrophic soil microbial biomass is associated with decomposition of organic matter in the soil. The form of N assimilated can be either low molecular weight organic N released from the breakdown of organic matter (direct assimilation), or NH⁺₄ and NO⁻₃ from the soil inorganic N pool, into which mineralized organic N is released (mineralization immobilization turnover). The kinetics of C and N turnover in soil is quantifiable by means of computer simulation models. NCSOIL was constructed to represent the two assimilation schemes. The rate of N assimilation depends on the rate of C assimilation and microbial C/N ratio, thereby rendering it independent of the assimilation scheme. However, if any of the N forms is labeled, a different amount of labeled N assimilation will be simulated by the different schemes. Experimental data on inorganic N and ¹⁵N and on organic ¹⁵N dynamics in soils incubated with ¹⁵N added as NH⁺₄ or organic N were compared with data simulated by different model schemes. Direct assimilation could not account for the amount of ¹⁵N assimilated in any of the experimental treatments. The best fit of the model to experimental data was obtained for the mineralization immobilization turnover scheme when both NH⁺₄ and NO⁻₃ were assimilated, in proportion to their concentration in the soil.     

水稻自然生长趋势的数学模型和动态分析

本研究以随机过程理论为基础,应用数理方法,在分期播种的基础上,提出了一个受遗传特性控制的水稻各生物学参量自然生长趋势的数学模型。并进行了重复验证,得到了不同生育时段各生物学参量的生长速度（一阶导数）和生长速度的变化率（二阶导数）,揭示了水稻生长的基本规律。并结合实测资料,通过相关分析,得到影响各生物学参量的关键气象因子,将水稻生长的研究建立在定量的基础上,有利于更加合理地采用各项高产栽培和农田管理措施。     

杭州西湖水质预测方法和结果分析

本文利用二维对流扩散模型对西湖水质总磷浓度进行预测,给出方程的理论基础,编制FORTRAN77程序,在386微机上实现预测,并对预测结果作了较为详细的分析．本模型对水质环境防治决策具有实际意义．     

Variability in the distribution and abundance of stream salmonids, and the associated use of habitat models

The effective management of salmonid fisheries requires that the factors influencing variation in the abundance of stream populations are understood. The use of habitat models to explain the spatial component of population variance offers potential for management, but has not previously been set in the context of long term variation in population abundance because of the lack of suitable data sets. This paper examines contributions of spatial and temporal factors lo fish density variance using a 10-year data set from five tributaries of the River Conwy, North Wales. Recently developed habitat models were applied to the data to test their ability to explain nominal spatial variance. Spatial variance accounted for between 21 and 62% of the overall variance of salmonid abundance, and habitat models explained up to 95% of the spatial variance component. Synchrony in population variation amongst sites within and between tributaries is described, and some of the factors that may influence this are discussed.     

Accumulation of scopoletin is associated with the high disease resistance of the hybrid Nicotiana glutinosa x Nicotiana debneyi

The high disease resistance of the amphidiploid hybrid of Nicotiana glutinosa x Nicotiana debneyi is associated with high constitutive levels of two phenolic compounds as analysed by high-performance liquid chromatography. The structures of these two compounds were elucidated by means of gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, fluorescence- and light-spectrophotometry to be those of scopolin and scopoletin. They reached levels of 4 nmol·(g FW)^?1 and 35 nmol·(g FW)^?1, respectively, in leaf tissues of the hybrid, about 10–50 times the amount found in the parental species. Scopoletin showed a direct antimicrobial activity against Cercospora nicotianae, Phytophthora parasitica var. nicotianae, Pseudomonas syringae pvs. tabaci and syringae and tobacco mosaic virus when added to synthetic growth media, mixed with the inoculum or sprayed onto tobacco plants prior to inoculation. We postulate that the high amount of toxic phenolics in the leaves of the hybrid N. glutinosa x N. debneyi contributes to its high disease resistance.     

Influence of A1 cytoplasmic substitution on the downy-mildew incidence of pearl millet

Large-scale cultivation of pearl millet [Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R. Br. F₁ hybrids in India has led to increased incidence of downy-mildew (Sclerospora graminicola). There is concern that the A₁ male-sterile cytoplasm used in all the hybrids released so far is responsible for this increase. The influence of A₁ malesterile cytoplasm on downy-mildew incidence in pearl millet was studied by comparing the disease reaction of 40 pairs of F₁ hybrids, each pair carrying respectively a₁ male-sterile and normal B cytoplasm. Mean downy-mildew incidence was similar in the hybrids carrying either A₁ male-sterile or B cytoplasm. The general combining ability of lines with and without A₁ cytoplasm was found to be similar for downy-mildew incidence. These results indicated that in pearl millet A₁ cytoplasm is not associated with increased downymildew incidence. The possible danger of using only one source of cytoplasm has been briefly discussed.     

The decline of tree diversity on newly isolated tropical islands: A test of a null hypothesis and some implications

Summary Six islands, each less than a hectare in area, were isolated in about 1913 from the mainland of central Panamá by the rising waters of Gatun Lake. By 1980, the diversity of trees on all but one of these islands was far lower than on mainland plots of comparable size. A restricted subset of tree species has spread on these islands, notablyProtium panamense, Scheelea zonensis, Oenocarpus panamanus andSwartzia simplex. We constructed a null model to predict how chance would change tree diversity and the similarity of tree species compositions of different islands, assuming that each mature tree has equal chances of dying and/or reproducing, regardless of its species. This model cannot account for the diminished diversity of the changes in vegetation on these islands: some factors must be favoring a particular set of tree species.Two factors, exposure to wind and absence of mammals, seem needed to bring about the vegetation changes observed on these small islands. Their vegetation shows many signs of wind damage and of adaptation to resist wind, reflecting its exposure to dry season winds and storm winds sweeping across the lake from the west. Their most common tree species appear to have spread because mammals rarely visit these small and isolated islands. Seed of these common species are normally much eaten by mammals and do not need burial by mammals to escape insect attack.A thorough grasp of plant—animal interactions is needed to understand the events that have taken place on these islands. Identifying those keystone animals essential for maintaining plant diversity is a necessary element of reserve design and forest management in the tropics.The US government has the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright covering this paper.     

Large old trees increase growth under shifting climatic constraints: Aligning tree longevity and individual growth dynamics in primary mountain spruce forests

In a world of accelerating changes in environmental conditions driving tree growth, tradeoffs between tree growth rate and longevity could curtail the abundance of large old trees (LOTs), with potentially dire consequences for biodiversity and carbon storage. However, the influence of tree-level tradeoffs on forest structure at landscape scales will also depend on disturbances, which shape tree size and age distribution, and on whether LOTs can benefit from improved growing conditions due to climate warming. We analyzed temporal and spatial variation in radial growth patterns from ~5000 Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] H. Karst) live and dead trees from the Western Carpathian primary spruce forest stands. We applied mixed-linear modeling to quantify the importance of LOT growth histories and stand dynamics (i.e., competition and disturbance factors) on lifespan. Finally, we assessed regional synchronization in radial growth variability over the 20th century, and modeled the effects of stand dynamics and climate on LOTs recent growth trends. Tree age varied considerably among forest stands, implying an important role of disturbance as an age constraint. Slow juvenile growth and longer period of suppressed growth prolonged tree lifespan, while increasing disturbance severity and shorter time since last disturbance decreased it. The highest age was not achieved only by trees with continuous slow growth, but those with slow juvenile growth followed by subsequent growth releases. Growth trend analysis demonstrated an increase in absolute growth rates in response to climate warming, with late summer temperatures driving the recent growth trend. Contrary to our expectation that LOTs would eventually exhibit declining growth rates, the oldest LOTs (>400 years) continuously increase growth throughout their lives, indicating a high phenotypic plasticity of LOTs for increasing biomass, and a strong carbon sink role of primary spruce forests under rising temperatures, intensifying droughts, and increasing bark beetle outbreaks.     

Climate change disrupts core habitats of marine species

Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of >33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO₂ emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.     

Change in climatically suitable breeding distributions reduces hybridization potential between Vermivora warblers

Aim

Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and subsequent biotic interactions, including hybridization potential. The imperiled Golden-winged Warbler (GWWA) competes and hybridizes with the Blue-winged Warbler (BWWA), which may threaten the persistence of GWWA due to introgression. We examined how climate change is likely to alter the breeding distributions and potential for hybridization between GWWA and BWWA.

Location

North America.

Methods

We used GWWA and BWWA occurrence data to model climatically suitable conditions under historical and future climate scenarios. Models were parameterized with 13 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables. Using ensemble modeling, we estimated historical and modern distributions, as well as a projected distribution under six future climate scenarios. We quantified breeding distribution area, the position of and amount of overlap between GWWA and BWWA distributions under each climate scenario. We summarized the top explanatory variables in our model to predict environmental parameters of the distributions under future climate scenarios relative to historical climate.

Results

GWWA and BWWA distributions are projected to substantially change under future climate scenarios. GWWA are projected to undergo the greatest change; the area of climatically suitable breeding season conditions is expected to shift north to northwest; and range contraction is predicted in five out of six future climate scenarios. Climatically suitable conditions for BWWA decreased in four of the six future climate scenarios, while the distribution is projected to shift east. A reduction in overlapping distributions for GWWA and BWWA is projected under all six future climate scenarios.

Main Conclusions

Climate change is expected to substantially alter the area of climatically suitable conditions for GWWA and BWWA, with the southern portion of the current breeding ranges likely to become climatically unsuitable. However, interactions between BWWA and GWWA are expected to decline with the decrease in overlapping habitat, which may reduce the risk of genetic introgression.