A null model of temporal trends in biological invasion records

Biological invasions are a growing aspect of global biodiversity change. In many regions, introduced species richness increases supralinearly over time. This does not, however, necessarily indicate increasing introduction rates or invasion success. We develop a simple null model to identify the expected trend in invasion records over time. For constant introduction rates and success, the expected trend is exponentially increasing. Model extensions with varying introduction rate and success can also generate exponential distributions. We then analyse temporal trends in aquatic, marine and terrestrial invasion records. Most data sets support an exponential distribution (15/16) and the null invasion model (12/16). Thus, our model shows that no change in introduction rate or success need be invoked to explain the majority of observed trends. Further, an exponential trend does not necessarily indicate increasing invasion success or 'invasional meltdown', and a saturating trend does not necessarily indicate decreasing success or biotic resistance.     

Disease mapping of stage-specific cancer incidence data

We propose two approaches for the spatial analysis of cancer incidence data with additional information on the stage of the disease at time of diagnosis. The two formulations are extensions of commonly used models for multicategorical response data on an ordinal scale. We include spatial and age-group effects in both formulations, which we estimate in a nonparametric smooth way. More specifically, we adopt a fully Bayesian approach based on Gaussian pairwise difference priors where additional smoothing parameters are treated as unknown as well. We argue that the methods are useful in monitoring the effectiveness of mass cancer screening and illustrate this through an application to data on cervical cancer in the former German Democratic Republic. The results suggest that there are large spatial differences in the stage proportions, which indicate spatial variability with respect to the introduction and effectiveness of Pap smear screening programs.     

Nonparametric Tests for Interval‐Censored Failure Time Data

This paper discusses two sample nonparametric comparison of survival functions when only interval‐censored failure time data are available. The problem considered often occurs in, for example, biological and medical studies such as medical follow‐up studies and clinical trials. For the problem, we present and study several nonparametric test procedures that include methods based on both absolute and squared survival differences as well as simple survival differences. The presented tests provide alternatives to existing methods, most of which are rank‐based tests and not sensitive to nonproportional or nonmonotone alternatives. Simulation studies are performed to evaluate and compare the proposed methods with existing methods and suggest that the proposed tests work well for nonmonotone alternatives as well as monotone alternatives. An illustrative example is presented.     

基于DTTD-MCR-PLUS模型的三生空间格局优化——以长沙市为例

优化三生空间格局有助于实现区域国土空间可持续高质量发展。研究提出利用动态交通时间数据优化最小阻力成本模型指标体系，对生态累计最小阻力与生活最小累计阻力差值进行聚类分析，利用突变点对各情景下的三生空间数量进行优化，从生活扩张、生态优先及基于资源与环境承载力视角下的粮食安全3个方面，提出了一种基于DTTD-MCR-PLUS的三生空间格局优化方法。研究发现：1) 基于动态数据优化的长沙市生态功能优化分区结果显示生态空间保护核心区面积为4111.41 km2，生态空间保护边缘区面积为2285.29 km2，生产空间开发重点区面积为2144.79 km2，生产空间开发边缘区面积为1928.59 km2，生活空间扩张集中区面积为1235.55 km2； 2) 耦合DTTD-MCR-PLUS模型模拟的多情景结果表明：生活优先情景下，生活空间面积增幅高达43.57%，主要分布在望城区南部，长沙县西部和雨花区东部；生态优先情景下，生态空间转出速度最低，与生活优先情景相比下降了3.11%；粮食安全情景下，生产空间侵占生态空间速度加快，增幅高达58.79%；3) 协调基本农田、生态保护红线、以及自然保护区下的2030 年长沙市三生空间格局优化布局方案结果表明：生产空间、生活空间和生态空间比例分别为37.63%、7.67%和54.70%。     

Constrained parametric model for simultaneous inference of two cumulative incidence functions

We propose a parametric regression model for the cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) commonly used for competing risks data. The model adopts a modified logistic model as the baseline CIF and a generalized odds‐rate model for covariate effects, and it explicitly takes into account the constraint that a subject with any given prognostic factors should eventually fail from one of the causes such that the asymptotes of the CIFs should add up to one. This constraint intrinsically holds in a nonparametric analysis without covariates, but is easily overlooked in a semiparametric or parametric regression setting. We hence model the CIF from the primary cause assuming the generalized odds‐rate transformation and the modified logistic function as the baseline CIF. Under the additivity constraint, the covariate effects on the competing cause are modeled by a function of the asymptote of the baseline distribution and the covariate effects on the primary cause. The inference procedure is straightforward by using the standard maximum likelihood theory. We demonstrate desirable finite‐sample performance of our model by simulation studies in comparison with existing methods. Its practical utility is illustrated in an analysis of a breast cancer dataset to assess the treatment effect of tamoxifen, adjusting for age and initial pathological tumor size, on breast cancer recurrence that is subject to dependent censoring by second primary cancers and deaths.     

Genetic diversity in nutritional composition of oat (Avena sativa L.) germplasm reported from Pakistan

In the present study, 30 potential germplasm of oat (Avena sativa L.) were subjected to proximate, elemental, and HPLC analysis to provide a scientific basis to genetic diversity present among them. The extracts of the selected germplasms were also evaluated for their antioxidant potentials through DPPH and ABTS assays. Proximate analysis showed protein contents to be in the range 8.35–17.72% with the highest protein contents in the accession line 22,365 (17.72 ± 0.38%). The genotype-725 showed the highest carbohydrate, and dry matter (53.35 ± 0.01 and 93.50 ± 0.07% respectively) contents whereas, the germplasm-830 contained the highest fat (7.88 ± 0.12%) contents while the highest moisture contents were there in germplasm-22348 (11.95 ± 0.06%). The crude fiber contents (19.67 ± 0.19%) were found high in germplasm-832. The mentioned contents were also correlated to each other where a negative (?0.431*) correlation was noted for crude protein and carbohydrate while ash content to crude protein has a positive (0.38*) correlation. A positive and a negative correlation were there in Crude fats/crude protein (0.30*) and crude fats/moisture contents (?0.39*) respectively. Principal component analysis showed an Eigenvalue of 0.76 with a total variation of 85.01% when applied to proximate components. Based on cluster analysis to proximate composition all the oat germplasms were divided into 5 sub-clusters, where accession numbers 769 and 817 were found to be the most diverse genotypes. The elemental analysis confirmed the presence of magnesium (2.89–7.62 mg/L), sodium (3.71–8.03 mg/L), manganese (0.93–3.71 mg/L), copper (0.35–3.36 mg/L), iron (2.15–6.82 mg/L), zinc (1.30–3.37 mg/L), chromium (0.37–3.34 mg/L), and potassium (50.70–59.60 mg/L) in the selected germplasms. Principal component analysis for elemental composition showed the total variation of 73.75% with the Eigenvalue of 0.97. Cluster analysis on an elemental basis divided all the oat germplasms into 7 sub-clusters where accession numbers 769 and 22,350 were found to be the most diverse germplasm. Phytochemical analysis performed through HPLC resulted in the identification of nine possible compounds (malic acid, epigallocatechin gallate, quercetin, morin, ellagic acid, catechin hydrate, rutin, pyrogallol, and mandelic acid) in various germplasm of oat. A concentration-dependent antioxidant response was recorded when extracts were tested as an inhibitor of DPPH and ABTS free radicals. The results revealed that oat grains are a good source of nutrients, minerals, and phytochemicals that can be used as nutraceuticals and as food. The genetic differences revealed that this plant can be grown under varied environmental conditions.     

Linear Diagonals‐Parameter Symmetry and Quasi‐Symmetry Models for Cumulative Probabilities in Square Contingency Tables with Ordered Categories

For the analysis of square contingency tables with ordered categories, Caussinus (1965) considered the quasi‐symmetry (QS) model, Goodman (1979) considered the diagonals‐parameter symmetry (DPS) model, and Agresti (1983) considered the linear diagonals‐parameter symmetry (LDPS) model. These models show the structures of symmetry for cell probabilities. Tomizawa (1993) proposed another DPS model which has a similar multiplicative form for cumulative probabilities that an observation will fall in row (column) category i or below and column (row) category j (>i) or above. This paper proposes another LDPS and QS models that have the corresponding similar multiplicative forms for cumulative probabilities instead of cell probabilities. Special cases of the proposed models include symmetry. Two kinds of unaided distance vision data and endometrial cancer data are analyzed using these models. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Omnibus tests for comparison of competing risks with adjustment for covariate effects

This article develops omnibus tests for comparing cause-specific hazard rates and cumulative incidence functions at specified covariate levels. Confidence bands for the difference and the ratio of two conditional cumulative incidence functions are also constructed. The omnibus test is formulated in terms of a test process given by a weighted difference of estimates of cumulative cause-specific hazard rates under Cox proportional hazards models. A simulation procedure is devised for sampling from the null distribution of the test process, leading to graphical and numerical technques for detecting significant differences in the risks. The approach is applied to a cohort study of type-specific HIV infection rates.     

Components and Controls of Water Flux in an Old-growth Douglas-fir–Western Hemlock Ecosystem

We report measurements of rates of sap flow in dominant trees, changes in soil moisture, and evaporation from coarse woody debris in an old-growth Douglas-fir–western hemlock ecosystem at Wind River, Washington, USA, during dry periods in summer. The measurements are compared with eddy-covariance measurements of water-vapor fluxes above the forest (E_e) and at the forest floor (E_u) to examine the components of ecosystem water loss and the factors controlling them. Daily values of E_u were about 10% of E_e. Evaporation from coarse woody debris was only about 2% of E_e. Transpiration (E_t), estimated by scaling sap-flow measurements accounted for about 70% of (E_e– E_u); transpiration from subdominant trees may account for the remainder. The daily total change in soil moisture (E_s) in the top 30 cm was larger than the net change, probably because of hydraulic redistribution of soil water by roots. Observed differences between E_s and E_e were probably because roots also extract water from greater depth, and/or because the measuring systems sample at different spatial scales. The ratio of E_t to E_s decreased with decreasing soil water content, suggesting that partitioning in water use between understory and overstory changed during the season. The rate of soil drying exceeded E_e early in the day, probably because water vapor was being stored in canopy air space and condensed or adsorbed on tree stems, lichens, and mosses. The daily variation of E_e with vapor-pressure deficit showed strong hysteresis, most likely associated with transpiration of water stored in tree stems and branches.     

半干旱区不同垄沟集雨种植马铃薯模式对土壤蒸发的影响

通过垄沟集雨种植马铃薯试验,研究了不同垄沟集雨种植模式对土壤蒸发的影响.结果表明,在马铃薯全生育期,垄上覆盖塑料薄膜(CR)处理土壤蒸发量为122.9～165 mm,垄上原土夯实不覆膜(UR)处理土壤蒸发量为90.9～101.2 mm,无垄带状种植(CK) 土壤蒸发量为80.7 mm.其中,覆膜垄处理CR₆₀在马铃薯成熟期土壤蒸发强度最大,达2.6 mm·d^-1,平均为1.46 mm·d^-1,而对照的土壤蒸发强度为0.65 mm·d^-1;不覆膜土垄处理(UR₃₀)土壤蒸发强度苗期最小,只有0.2 mm·d^-1,平均为0.39 mm·d^-1,而对照的土壤蒸发强度为0.58 mm·d^-1.在马铃薯生长的现蕾期和开花期,水面蒸发量最大,日平均水面蒸发量分别为8.3和9.0 mm,与土壤蒸发不同步.马铃薯成熟期,各处理棵间土壤蒸发量都达到最大值.覆膜垄蒸发量最大,集雨效果显著,所以应采取抑制土壤蒸发措施,以便进一步提高水分利用效率.