Making predictive ecology more relevant to policy makers and practitioners

One of the aims of ecology is to aid policy makers and practitioners through the development of testable predictions of relevance to society. Here, we argue that this capacity can be improved in three ways. Firstly, by thinking more clearly about the priority issues using a range of methods including horizon scanning, identifying policy gaps, identifying priority questions and using evidence-based conservation to identify knowledge gaps. Secondly, by linking ecological models with models of other systems, such as economic and social models. Thirdly, by considering alternative approaches to generate and model data that use, for example, discrete or categorical states to model ecological systems. We particularly highlight that models are essential for making predictions. However, a key to the limitation in their use is the degree to which ecologists are able to communicate results to policy makers in a clear, useful and timely fashion.     

On density and extinction in continuous population models

Survival analyses, investigations of extinction and persistence, are executed for populations represented by a nonautonomous differential equation model. The population is assumed governed by density dependent and time varying density independent demographic parameters. While traditional approaches to extinction postulate extinction on an infinite time horizon and at zero abundance level, survival analysis is developed not only for this traditional setting but also on a finite time horizon and at a nonzero threshold level. A main conclusion is that extinction of a temporally stressed population is determined by a totality of density independent and density dependent factors.     

Effects of simulated acid precipitation on the cycling of manganese under Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis)

Simulated acid rain at pH 3.3, 4.3 and 5.3 has been applied by overheadspraying to reconstructed soil profiles and young Sitka spruce (Piceasitchensis) trees in pots to assess the effect of rainfall acidityonthe fate and recycling efficiency of Mn from ⁵⁴Mn-labelled Sitkaspruce litter. The concentration of ⁵⁴Mn in throughfall wassignificantly increased by acidification of the rain, but ⁵⁴Mnactivity in drainage water remained low and was not significantly affected. Thefact that only < 1.5% of ⁵⁴Mn was lost in drainage water suggeststhat forest ecosystems efficiently retain Mn, at least in the short term. Thebulk of ⁵⁴Mn (approximately 60 to 70%) was retained in the litterlayer. Compared with rain at pH 4.3, rain at pH 3.3 acidified L/F and H/Ahorizon soils. The amount of ⁵⁴Mn found in the different soilhorizons was only influenced significantly by rainfall acidity in the E horizonsoil, however, where ⁵⁴Mn activity was increased by the most acidtreatment. The activity of ⁵⁴Mn in Sitka spruce needles did notdiffer significantly with treatments.     

biological activity of ancient cultivated soil with buried horizons (the iverskii monastery, XVII century)

The biological activity of an ancient cultivated soil that has been in intense agricultural use since approximately the first half of the XVII century was studied. The potential biological activity of the buried horizon of the ancient cultivated soil was higher than that of its modern horizon or that of the noncultivated soil of an adjacent territory occurring under similar lithological and geomorphological conditions. A decreased rate of oxidative processes (decreased rates of CO₂ production and CH₄ oxidation) and an increased rate of reductive processes (denitrification and nitrogen fixation) were found in the buried horizon. A high potential denitrification activity (with predominant formation of nitrous oxide) was found in the buried horizon; in the upper horizon, the end product was molecular nitrogen.     

Planning horizons and end conditions for sustained yield studies in continuous cover forests

The contemporary forestry preoccupation with non-declining even-flow during yield simulations detracts from more important questions about the constraints that should bind the end of a simulation. Whilst long simulations help to convey a sense of sustainability, they are inferior to stronger indicators such as the optimal state and binding conditions at the end of a simulation. Rigorous definitions of sustainability that constrain the terminal state should allow flexibility in the planning horizon and relaxation of non-declining even-flow, allowing both greater economic efficiency and better environmental outcomes. Suitable definitions cannot be divorced from forest type and management objectives, but should embrace concepts that ensure the anticipated value of the next harvest, the continuity of growing stock, and in the case of uneven-aged management, the adequacy of regeneration.     

Invasive non‐native species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the Antarctic Peninsula region

The Antarctic is considered to be a pristine environment relative to other regions of the Earth, but it is increasingly vulnerable to invasions by marine, freshwater and terrestrial non‐native species. The Antarctic Peninsula region (APR), which encompasses the Antarctic Peninsula, South Shetland Islands and South Orkney Islands, is by far the most invaded part of the Antarctica continent. The risk of introduction of invasive non‐native species to the APR is likely to increase with predicted increases in the intensity, diversity and distribution of human activities. Parties that are signatories to the Antarctic Treaty have called for regional assessments of non‐native species risk. In response, taxonomic and Antarctic experts undertook a horizon scanning exercise using expert opinion and consensus approaches to identify the species that are likely to present the highest risk to biodiversity and ecosystems within the APR over the next 10 years. One hundred and three species, currently absent in the APR, were identified as relevant for review, with 13 species identified as presenting a high risk of invading the APR. Marine invertebrates dominated the list of highest risk species, with flowering plants and terrestrial invertebrates also represented; however, vertebrate species were thought unlikely to establish in the APR within the 10 year timeframe. We recommend (a) the further development and application of biosecurity measures by all stakeholders active in the APR, including surveillance for species such as those identified during this horizon scanning exercise, and (b) use of this methodology across the other regions of Antarctica. Without the application of appropriate biosecurity measures, rates of introductions and invasions within the APR are likely to increase, resulting in negative consequences for the biodiversity of the whole continent, as introduced species establish and spread further due to climate change and increasing human activity.     

Identifying potentially invasive non‐native marine and brackish water species for the Arabian Gulf and Sea of Oman

Invasive non‐native species (NNS) are internationally recognized as posing a serious threat to global biodiversity, economies and human health. The identification of invasive NNS is already established, those that may arrive in the future, their vectors and pathways of introduction and spread, and hotspots of invasion are important for a targeted approach to managing introductions and impacts at local, regional and global scales. The aim of this study was to identify which marine and brackish NNS are already present in marine systems of the northeastern Arabia area (Arabian Gulf and Sea of Oman) and of these which ones are potentially invasive, and which species have a high likelihood of being introduced in the future and negatively affect biodiversity. Overall, 136 NNS were identified, of which 56 are already present in the region and a further 80 were identified as likely to arrive in the future, including fish, tunicates, invertebrates, plants and protists. The Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS‐ISK) was used to identify the risk of NNS being (or becoming) invasive within the region. Based on the AS‐ISK basic risk assessment (BRA) thresholds, 36 extant and 37 horizon species (53.7% of all species) were identified as high risk. When the impact of climate change on the overall assessment was considered, the combined risk score (BRA+CCA) increased for 38.2% of all species, suggesting higher risk under warmer conditions, including the highest‐risk horizon NNS the green crab Carcinus maenas, and the extant macro‐alga Hypnea musciformis. This is the first horizon‐scanning exercise for NNS in the region, thus providing a vital baseline for future management. The outcome of this study is the prioritization of NNS to inform decision‐making for the targeted monitoring and management in the region to prevent new bio‐invasions and to control existing species, including their potential for spread.     

Soil tillage systems to reduce the harmful effect of extreme weather and hydrological situations

Soil as the largest potential natural water reservoir in the Carpathian Basin has increasing importance under conditions of predicted climate change resulting in increase of probability of extreme hydrological events. Soil management changes soil structure and has a major effect on soil water, heat and nutrition regimes. In this study the effect of four tillage treatments in combination with catch crop management was studied on soil hydraulic properties and water regime under semi-arid conditions. Investigations were carried out in a long-term soil tillage experiment established on Calcic Chernozem soil in Hungary. Tillage variants comprised mouldboard ploughing, disking, loosening combined with disking and direct drilling. The crop sequence between September 2003 and September 2004 comprised maize (main crop), rye (catch crop) and pea (forage). In May 2004, disturbed samples and undisturbed soil cores were collected from each tillage treatment/catch crop combination. The main soil physical and hydrophysical properties were determined in laboratory. In each treatment, capacitive soil moisture probes were installed up to 80 cm depth to ensure continuous measurement of soil water content. Total soil water amounts of chosen soil layers and soil water content dynamics as a function of depth were evaluated for selected periods in order to quantify the effect of the studied management systems on soil water regime. The main conclusion from the experiment is that under such (or similar) ecological conditions, the uniform, „over-standardized“ adaptation of tillage methods for soil moisture conservation is rather risky, their application needs special care and the future is for site-specific precision technologies. These are, in combination with catch crop application can be efficient measures of environmental protection and soil structure and water conservation.     

Changes in soil carbon and nitrogen cycling along a 72-year wildfire chronosequence in Michigan jack pine forests

We investigated the changes in soil processes following wildfire in Michigan jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forests using a chronosequence of 11 wildfire-regenerated stands spanning 72 years. The objective of this study was to characterize patterns of soil nutrients, soil respiration and N mineralization with stand development, as well as to determine the mechanisms driving those patterns. We measured in situ N mineralization and soil respiration monthly during the 2002 growing season and used multiple regression analysis to determine the important factors controlling these processes. Growing-season soil respiration rates ranged from a low of 156 g C/m² in the 7-year-old stand to a high of 254 g C/m² in the 22-year-old stand, but exhibited no clear pattern with stand age. In general, soil respiration rates peaked during the months of July and August when soil temperatures were highest. We used a modified gamma function to model a temporal trend in total N mineralization (total N mineralization = 1.853−0.276 × age × e ^{−0.814 × age}; R ² = 0.381; P = 0.002). Total N mineralization decreased from 2.8 g N/m² in the 1-year-old stand to a minimum value of 0.5 g N/m² in the 14-year-old stand, and then increased to about 1.5 g N/m² in mature stands. Changes in total N mineralization were driven by a transient spike in N turnover in the mineral soil immediately after wildfire, followed by a gradual accrual of a slow-cycling pool of N in surface organic horizons as stands matured. Thus, in Michigan jack pine forests, the accumulation of surface organic matter appears to regulate N availability following stand-replacing wildfire.