Climate change at the landscape scale: predicting fine-grained spatial heterogeneity in warming and potential refugia for vegetation

Current predictions of how species will respond to climate change are based on coarse‐grained climate surfaces or idealized scenarios of uniform warming. These predictions may erroneously estimate the risk of extinction because they neglect to consider spatially heterogenous warming at the landscape scale or identify refugia where species can persist despite unfavourable regional climate. To address this issue, we investigated the heterogeneity in warming that has occurred in a 10 km × 10 km area from 1972 to 2007. We developed estimates by combining long‐term daily observations from a limited number of weather stations with a more spatially comprehensive dataset (40 sites) obtained during 2005–2006. We found that the spatial distribution of warming was greater inland, at lower elevations, away from streams, and at sites exposed to the northwest (NW). These differences corresponded with changes in weather patterns, such as an increasing frequency of hot, dry NW winds. As plant species were biased in the topographic and geographic locations they occupied, these differences meant that some species experienced more warming than others, and are at greater risk from climate change. This species bias could not be detected at coarser scales. The uneven seasonal nature of warming (e.g. more warming in winter, minimums increased more than maximums) means that climate change predictions will vary according to which predictors are selected in species distribution models. Models based on a limited set of predictors will produce erroneous predictions when the correct limiting factor is not selected, and this is difficult to avoid when temperature predictors are correlated because they are produced using elevation‐sensitive interpolations. The results reinforce the importance of downscaling coarse‐grained (∼50 km) temperature surfaces, and suggest that the accuracy of this process could be improved by considering regional weather patterns (wind speed, direction, humidity) and topographic exposure to key wind directions.     

LIFE-CENTERED ETHICS, AND THE HUMAN FUTURE IN SPACE

In the future, human destiny may depend on our ethics. In particular, biotechnology and expansion in space can transform life, raising profound questions. Guidance may be found in Life‐centered ethics, as biotic ethics that value the basic patterns of organic gene/protein life, and as panbiotic ethics that always seek to expand life. These life‐centered principles can be based on scientific insights into the unique place of life in nature, and the biological unity of all life. Belonging to life then implies a human purpose: to safeguard and propagate life. Expansion in space will advance this purpose but will also raise basic questions. Should we expand all life or only intelligent life? Should we aim to create populations of trillions? Should we seed other solar systems? How far can we change but still preserve the human species, and life itself? The future of all life may be in our hands, and it can depend on our guiding ethics whether life will fulfil its full potentials. Given such profound powers, life‐centered ethics can best secure future generations. Our descendants may then understand nature more deeply, and seek to extend life indefinitely. In that future, our human existence can find a cosmic purpose.     

Systematics, biogeography and diversification of the Indo-Australian genus Delias Hübner (Lepidoptera: Pieridae): phylogenetic evidence supports an 'out-of-Australia' origin

Abstract Two alternative hypotheses for the origin of butterflies in the Australian Region, that elements dispersed relatively recently from the Oriental Region into Australia (northern dispersal hypothesis) or descended from ancient stocks in Gondwana (southern vicariance hypothesis), were tested using methods of cladistic vicariance biogeography for the Delias group, a diverse and widespread clade in the Indo‐Australian Region. A phylogenetic hypothesis of the twenty‐four species‐groups recognized currently in Delias and its sister genus Leuciacria is inferred from molecular characters generated from the nuclear gene elongation factor‐1 alpha (EF‐1α) and the mitochondrial genes cytochrome oxidase subunits I and II (COI/COII) and NADH dehydrogenase 5 (ND5). Phylogenetic analyses based on maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference of the combined dataset (3888 bp, 1014 parsimony informative characters) confirmed the monophyly of Delias and recovered eight major lineages within the genus, informally designated the singhapura, belladonna, hyparete, chrysomelaena, eichhorni, cuningputi, belisama and nigrina clades. Species‐group relationships within these clades are, in general, concordant with current systematic arrangements based on morphology. The major discrepancies concern the placement of the aganippe, belisama and chrysomelaena groups, as well as several species‐groups endemic to mainland New Guinea. Two species (D. harpalyce (Donovan), D. messalina Arora) of uncertain group status are currently misplaced based on strong evidence of paraphyly, and are accordingly transferred to the nigrina and kummeri groups, respectively. Based on this phylogeny, a revised systematic classification is presented at the species‐group level. An historical biogeographical analysis of the Delias group revealed that the most parsimonious reconstruction is an origin in the Australian Region, with at least seven dispersal events across Wallacea to the Oriental Region. The eight major clades of Delias appear to have diverged rapidly following complete separation of the Australian plate from Gondwana and its collision with the Asian plate in the late Oligocene. Further diversification and dispersal of Delias in the Miocene–Pliocene are associated with major geological and climatic changes that occurred in Australia–New Guinea during the late Tertiary. The ‘out‐of‐Australia’ hypothesis for the Delias group supports an origin of the Aporiina in southern Gondwana (southern vicariance hypothesis), which proposes that the ancestor of Delias + Leuciacria differentiated vicariantly on the Australian plate.     

The importance of water regimes operating at small spatial scales for the diversity and structure of wetland vegetation

1. In most cases, the most important determinant of wetland vegetation is the water regime. Although water regime is usually described and managed at the scale of whole wetlands, the patterning of vegetation is likely to be determined by water regimes that are experienced at much finer spatial scales. In this study, we assess the significance of internal heterogeneity in water regimes and the role that this heterogeneity plays in vegetation patterning. 2. The effects of water regime on wetland plant species richness and vegetation structure were studied at Dowd Morass, a 1500 ha, Ramsar‐listed wetland in south‐eastern Australia that is topographically heterogeneous. Data on plant variables and water depth were collected along 45 (50 m) transects throughout the wetland and related to water regimes assigned individually for each transect. Wetland plants were assigned to plant functional groups (PFG) that describe the response of plants to the presence or absence of water at different life stages. 3. The classification of water depth data indicated four distinct water regimes in the wetland that were differentiated primarily by the duration of the dry period. Representatives of all PFGs co‐existed over small spatial scales where topographical variation was present, and the richness and cover of understorey species declined as transects became more deeply and permanently flooded. Some PFGs (e.g. amphibious fluctuation tolerator‐low growing and amphibious fluctuation responder‐morphologically plastic) were eliminated by extended periods of flooding, which increased the cover but not richness of submerged plants. Species richness and foliage projective cover declined as water regimes shifted from shallow and frequently exposed conditions to regimes typified by deeper and longer inundation. Cover of the structurally dominant woody species was compromised by deeply flooded conditions but vegetative regeneration occurred despite high water levels. 4. Internal topographical variation generates mosaics of water regimes at fine spatial scales that allow plant species with different water regime requirements to co‐exist over small distances. Deep water and an absence of dry periods result in decreased cover of plants and an overall loss of species richness in the understorey. Water regimes are described that promote regeneration and cover of structurally dominant taxa and increased species richness in the understorey. The study demonstrates a strong association between vegetation and the diverse water regimes that exist within a single wetland, a pattern that will be useful for modelling the effects of modified water regimes on wetland vegetation.     

Rapid cooling triggers forisome dispersion just before phloem transport stops

Phloem transport stops transiently within dicot stems that are cooled rapidly, but the cause remains unknown. Now it is known that (1) rapid cooling depolarizes cell membranes giving a transient increase in cytoplasmic Ca²⁺, and (2) a rise of free calcium triggers dispersion of forisomes, which then occlude sieve elements (SEs) of fabacean plants. Therefore, we compared the effects of rapid chilling on SE electrophysiology, phloem transport and forisomes in Vicia faba. Forisomes dispersed after rapid cooling with a delay that was longer for slower cooling rates. Phloem transport stopped about 20 s after forisome dispersion, and then transport resumed and forisomes re‐condensed within similar time frames. Transport interruption and forisome dispersion showed parallel behaviour – a cooling rate‐dependent response, transience and desensitization. Chilling induced both a fast and a slow depolarization of SE membranes, the electrical signature suggesting strongly that the cause of forisome dispersion was the transient promotion of SE free calcium. This apparent block of SEs by dispersed forisomes may be assisted by other Ca²⁺‐dependent sealing proteins that are present in all dicots.     

Use of gaseous 13NH3 administered to intact leaves of Nicotiana tabacum to study changes in nitrogen utilization during defence induction

Nitrogen‐13 (t_1/2 9.97 m), a radioactive isotope of nitrogen, offers unique opportunities to explore plant nitrogen utilization over short time periods. Here we describe a method for administering ¹³N as gaseous ¹³NH₃ to intact leaves of Nicotiana tabacum L. (cv Samsun), and measuring the labelled amino acids using radio high‐performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) on tissue extract. We used this method to study the effects of defence induction on plant nitrogen utilization by applying treatments of methyl jasmonate (MeJA), a potent defence elicitor. MeJA caused a significant increase relative to controls in key [¹³N]amino acids, including serine, glycine and alanine by 4 h post‐treatment, yet had no effect on ¹³NH₃ incorporation, a process that is primarily under the control of the glutamine synthatase/glutamate synthase pathway (GS/GOGAT) in cellular photorespiration. We suggest that the reconfiguration of nitrogen metabolism may reflect induction of non‐photorespiratory sources of nitrogen to better serve the plant's defences.     

Relations of sugar composition and δ13C in phloem sap to growth and physiological performance of Eucalyptus globulus (Labill)

We characterized differences in carbon isotopic content (δ¹³C) and sugar concentrations in phloem exudates from Eucalyptus globulus (Labill) plantations across a rainfall gradient in south‐western Australia. Phloem sap δ¹³C and sugar concentrations varied with season and annual rainfall. Annual bole growth was negatively related to phloem sap δ¹³C during summer, suggesting a water limitation, yet was positively related in winter. We conclude that when water is abundant, variations in carboxylation rates become significant to overall growth. Concentrations of sucrose in phloem sap varied across sites by up to 600 mm, and raffinose by 300 mm . These compounds play significant roles in maintaining osmotic balance and facilitating carbon movement into the phloem, and their relative abundances contribute strongly to overall δ¹³C of phloem sap. Taken together, the δ¹³C and concentrations of specific sugars in phloem sap provide significant insights to functions supporting growth at the tree, site and landscape scale.     

Co‐limitation of photosynthetic capacity by nitrogen and phosphorus in West Africa woodlands

Photosynthetic leaf traits were determined for savanna and forest ecosystems in West Africa, spanning a large range in precipitation. Standardized major axis fits revealed important differences between our data and reported global relationships. Especially for sites in the drier areas, plants showed higher photosynthetic rates for a given N or P when compared with relationships from the global data set. The best multiple regression for the pooled data set estimated V_cmax and J_max from N_DW and S. However, the best regression for different vegetation types varied, suggesting that the scaling of photosynthesis with leaf traits changed with vegetation types. A new model is presented representing independent constraints by N and P on photosynthesis, which can be evaluated with or without interactions with S. It assumes that limitation of photosynthesis will result from the least abundant nutrient, thereby being less sensitive to the allocation of the non‐limiting nutrient to non‐photosynthetic pools. The model predicts an optimum proportionality for N and P, which is distinct for V_cmax and J_max and inversely proportional to S. Initial tests showed the model to predict V_cmax and J_max successfully for other tropical forests characterized by a range of different foliar N and P concentrations.     

Weather-Related Indices of Autumn– Winter Dabbling Duck Abundance in Middle North America

ABSTRACT Research on effects of key weather stimuli influencing waterfowl migration during autumn and winter is limited. We investigated relationships between changes in relative abundances of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and other dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) and weather variables at midlatitude locations in North America. We used waterfowl survey data from Missouri Conservation Areas and temperature and snow cover data from the Historical Climatology Network to evaluate competing models to explain changes in relative abundance of ducks in Missouri, USA, during autumn-winter, 1995–2005. We found that a cumulative weather severity index model (CumulativeWSI; calculated as mean daily temp - degrees C + no. of consecutive days with mean temp ≤ 0° C + snow depth + no. of consecutive days with snow cover) had the greatest weight of evidence in explaining changes in relative abundance of ducks. We concluded the CumulativeWSI reflected current and cumulative effects of ambient temperatures on energy expenditure by ducks, and snow cover and wetland icing, on food availability for ducks. The CumulativeWSI may be useful in determining potential changes in autumn-winter distributions of North American waterfowl given different climate change projections and associated changes in habitat conservation needs. Future investigations should address interactions between CumulativeWSI and landscape habitat quality, regional waterfowl populations, hunter harvest, and other anthropogenic influences to increase understanding of waterfowl migration during autumn-winter.