盐肤木上四种倍蚜主要生物学特性和预测的研究

本文报道1983—1986年作者在四川省绵竹、成都、夹江、涪陵和南川等县(市)境内,海拔500～1500米范围内,对寄生在盐肤木上的角倍蚜,倍蛋蚜,倍花蚜和红倍花蚜等四种主要倍蚜春迁蚜羽化迁飞期、干母营瘿期、倍子生长进程和瘿内倍蚜的生殖数量与世代数以及干母营瘿的寄主物候等的观察测定结果,并建立预测方程,为引移挂放和适宜采倍期的确定提供科学依据。     

Markov chain analysis finds a significant influence of neighboring bases on the occurrence of a base in eucaryotic nuclear DNA sequences both protein-coding and noncoding

Summary Sixty-four eucaryotic nuclear DNA sequences, half of them coding and half noncoding, have been examined as expressions of first-, second-, or third-order Markov chains. Standard statistical tests found that most of the sequences required at least second-order Markov chains for their representation, and some required chains of third order. For all 64 sequences the observed one-step second-order transition count matrices were effective in predicting the two-step transition count matrices, and 56 of 64 were effective in predicting the three-step transition count matrices. The departure from random expectation of the observed first- and second-order transition count matrices meant that a considerable sample of eucaryotic nuclear DNA sequences, both protein coding and noncoding, have significant local structure over subsequences of three to five contiguous bases, and that this structure occurs throughout the total length of the sequence. These results suggested that present DNA sequences may have arisen from the duplication, concatenation, and gradual modification of very early short sequences.     

Species dispersion profiles of anthropogenic grasslands in the Italian Eastern Pre-Alps

A method is proposed to analyse the dispersion profiles of species in classes of environmental variables, based on the decomposition of the expected frequencies in contingency tables with many interacting species. The method has been applied to data of dominant or very frequent graminoid species in grasslands of the Natisone Valley (Friuli, Italy). It allowed to make predictions by removing the random component of variation.Nomenclature follows: P. Zangheri (1976). Flora Italica, CEDAM, Padua.The authors were recipients of an Italian CNR grant (E. Feoli) and a Canadian NSERC grant (L. Orlóci) during tenure of this project. The results are in partial fulfillment of a commitment to the Centro Regionale per la Sperimentazione Agraria per il Friuli-Venezia Giulia.     

A prediction model for parasitic gastro-enteritis in lambs

Paton G., Thomas R. J. and Waller P. J. 1984. A prediction model for parasitic gastroenteritis in lambs. International Journal for Parasitology14: 439–445. The parasite Ostertagia circumcincta is a major cause of parasitic gastro-enteritis in lambs in temperate countries. A prediction model is described, based on a mathematical representation of the external and internal stages of the life-cycle.The model is used to predict the numbers of infective larvae on a permanent experimental paddock grazed by ewes and lambs in 1973 and 1974. The “moisture status” of the surface layer of the pasture was found to be of fundamental importance for the successful prediction of the development and survival of the pre-infective larval stages. For the years studied the contribution to the summer wave of infection by lamb derived larvae was particularly significant.     

Full and reduced models for yield trials

Summary Empirical results routinely demonstrate that the reduced Additive Main effects and Multiplicative Interaction (AMMI) model achieves better predictive accuracy for yield trials than does the full treatment means model. It may seem mysterious that treatment means are not the most accurate estimates, but rather that the AMMI model is often more accurate than its data. The statistical explanation involves the Stein effect, whereby a small sacrifice in bias can produce a large gain in accuracy. The corresponding agricultural explanation is somewhat complex, beginning with a yield trial's design and ending with its research purposes and applications. In essence, AMMI selectively recovers pattern related to the treatment design in its model, while selectively relegating noise related to the experimental design in its discarded residual. For estimating the yield of a particular genotype in a particular environment, the AMMI model uses the entire yield trial, rather than only the several replications of this particular trial, as in the treatment means model. This use of more information is the source of AMMI's gain in accuracy.This research was supported by the Rhizobotany Project of the USDA-ARS     

Assessing the risk of invasive success in Pinus and Banksia in South African mountain fynbos

Abstract. South African mountain fynbos has been severely invaded by trees and shrubs introduced from other mediterranean-climate regions. Management of these invasions should involve controlling current invaders and screening future introductions. Invasion windows are described and functional groups are defined for pines based on life history attributes important for invasion in the fire-prone mountain fynbos. The most successful invasive pines here (Pinus halepensis, P. pinaster and P. radiata) are fire-resilient and have small seeds, low seed-wing loadings, short juvenile periods, moderate to high degrees of serotiny and relatively poor fire-tolerance as adults. Other species with these attributes, especially from mediterranean-climate regions, wouldbe high-risk introductions. Taxa in other functional groups have not become major weeds even with widespread man-aided dissemination. Experience with pine invaders was used to define functional groups in western Australian Banksia species (Proteaceae), shrubs and trees which include taxa with similar attributes to fynbos invaders (e.g. Hakea and Pinus spp.). Banksias have only recently been introduced to the Cape, and are likely to be increasingly cultivated for the cut flower market. Tall serotinous shrubs with many small seeds per plant, short juvenile periods and low fire tolerance were identified as high risk introductions. This group includes thicket-forming species which maintain very large viable seed banks, e.g. Banksia burdettii, B. hookeriana and B. leptophylla. Low sprouting shrubs with few large seeds per plant and long juvenile periods are unlikely to become invasive in mountain fynbos. The approach of defining functional groups based on life history attributes and invasion windows is valuable for predicting the probability of invasive success. Chance interactions suchas an opportunistic dispersal mutualism between Pinus pinea and an introduced squirrel sometimes confound these predictions and underscore the idiosyncracies inherent in biological invasions.     

自花授粉作物杂交育种组合潜势的预测和比较

在黄花烟草Nicotiana russica中,开花期这一性状用V_5作亲本可能产生较大变异,无论是选择早开花的还是选择迟开花的,都有较大机会得到理想目标株系;对于株高这一性状,含有V(?)的组合可望有较大机会产生高于标准品种的株系。通过组合间育种潜势的比较,能了解各亲本中基因分布的基本情况,进而进行客观评价并对杂交组合做出取舍。试验证明,用一个组合的早期世代的参数m和D来预测高世代或纯系的育种潜势是可行的。     

甘蓝类无蜡粉亮叶性状遗传规律及其利用的研究

我们于1987年从普通结球甘蓝“迎春”品种自交二代群体中,发现了无蜡粉亮叶甘蓝突变株, 经过多年对其遗传规律进行的研究,认为这一无蜡粉亮叶性状是由一对隐性纯合基因控制。利用这一性状可培育结球甘蓝及其它甘蓝类具有这同一性状的新类型、新品种,提高其品质,更可作一代杂种利用的标记性状,充分发挥一代杂种的优势。     

向日葵籽实产量预测数学模型的研究

根据2年10个点次的田间试验结果建立了由数粒法、盘重法和盘径法预测向日葵籽实产量的回归数学模型,并根据1994年4个点次的产量实测结果对各模型的可靠性进行了验证．结果表明,三种方法建立的模型均有效、可靠．但在我国向日葵科研和生产实践中,以盘径法最为实用,建议推广应用．     

高危结直肠腺瘤的危险因素及风险预测模型的构建与验证

摘要 目的：探讨高危结直肠腺瘤的影响因素,构建风险预测模型并验证。方法：回顾性分析2021年1月至2021年12月期间在江苏大学附属人民医院进行诊疗的1408例结直肠腺瘤患者的资料,根据病理特征分为高危结直肠腺瘤组（759例）和非高危结直肠腺瘤组（649例）。采用Logistic回归分析筛选高危结直肠腺瘤的独立危险因素并建立风险预测模型,并验证预测模型的应用效能。结果：Logistic回归分析结果显示,病灶部位为直肠、高血压、高脂血症、年龄≥53岁、吸烟是高危结直肠腺瘤的独立危险因素（P＜0.05）。基于以上因素建立预测高危结直肠腺瘤风险的列线图模型,经Hosmer-Lemeshow检验和受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）分析显示,该风险预测模型具有较好的拟合度和预测效能,可以用于高危腺瘤的风险预测。结论：病灶部位为直肠、高血压、高脂血症、年龄≥53岁、吸烟是高危结直肠腺瘤的独立危险因素,临床医生可尽早对高危患者进行预防性干预以减缓高危腺瘤的发生。