Analysis of Multiply Matched Retrospective Studies When Risk Factor Under Study is Discrete,With Two or More Levels

The odds ratio is known to closely approximate the relative risk when the disease is rare. Logistic regression models are often used to estimate such odds ratios, but here a different model is used which avoids the assumptions implicit in logistic modelling; it also has the advantage of providing a test of homogeneity for odds rat os in situations where the logistic model cannot.     

The Treatment of Missing Values in Logistic Regression

The efficiencies of the estimators in the linear logistic regression model are examined using simulations under six missing value treatments. These treatments use either the maximum likelihood or the discriminant function approach in the estimation of the regression coefficients. Missing values are assumed to occur at random. The cases of multivariate normal and dichotomous independent variables are both considered. We found that in general, there is no uniformly best method. However, mean substitution and discriminant function estimation using existing pairs of values for correlations turn out to be favourable for the cases considered.     

Logistic曲线参数的一个最佳估计方法

本文提出用O．628优选法和SAS/STAT软件NLIN模块中的DUD法,对Logistic曲线中的参数k,a和b可得到最佳估计。     

Experimental evaluation of realized niche models for predicting responses of plant species to a change in environmental conditions

Abstract. We estimated, using logistic regression techniques, the realized niches of the four dominant species in an experimental marsh complex located in the Delta Marsh, Manitoba, Canada. These models were then used to predict the probability of occurrence of these species in selected elevation ranges when water levels were raised in 1985 either 0, 30 or 60 cm above the long-term normal water level. These realized-niche models were calculated using elevation and species data collected in 1980. After having been eliminated by two years of deep flooding, the emergent vegetation in this complex had been re-established during a drawdown beginning in either 1983 or 1984. Our hypothesis was that from 1985 to 1989 the frequencies of occurrence of species in selected elevation ranges would converge to their probabilities predicted from the 1980 logistic models. This was not borne out by our results. Actual frequencies and predicted probabilities of occurrence of a species were similar at best less than 40% and then mostly in the control (0 cm) treatment. The realized-niche models were not adequate to predict the distribution of emergents after an increase in water level in the short term because the emergent species did not migrate upslope. Emergent species in the medium and high treatments either (1) died out - Scolochloa festucacea and Scirpus lacustris - after 3 yr because they could not survive permanent flooding, (2) stayed where they were - Phragmites australis - because they were unable to move upslope through clonal growth, or (3) became more widespread - Typha glauca only because of the expansion of small local populations already established in 1985 in areas dominated formerly by other species.     

Culturally-transmitted feeding behaviour in primates: Evidence for accelerating learning rates

Cultural transmission implies the rapid spread of behavioural innovations when initially naïve individuals copy more informed ones. Mathematical models of transmission feature accelerating (and in most cases, logistic) rates of learning as animals that acquire an innovation provide ever increasing numbers of informers for potential learners. Conversely, non-accelerating rates have been proposed as a null hypothesis for apparent cases of cultural transmission that can best be explained by simpler mechanisms such as trial-and-error learning. Using the AIC technique for comparing models with different numbers of parameters, this paper examines the 21 cases in the primate literature where quantifiable data are available on learning rates for presumed culturally-transmitted feeding innovations. In each case, cumulative distributions over time of the frequency or proportion of individuals that acquire an innovation are compared with three accelerating functions (logistic, positive exponential, and hyperbolic sine) and two non-accelerating ones (linear and logarithmic). In 16 cases, the best fit is given by an accelerating function: nine of these support the logistic, four support the positive exponential and three, the reverse S-shaped hyperbolic sine. Individual cases often show small differences between alternative functions, but overall trends support the cultural assumption of accelerating learning rates.     

内蒙古察哈尔丘陵啮齿动物种群数量的波动和演替

根据内蒙古自治区正镶白旗乌宁巴图苏木９７４－１９９３年随啮齿动物密度监测资料进行分析,得到如下结果。共捕啮齿动物１３种,其中达乌尔黄鼠为优势种（６７．８５％）、一趾鼠为次优势种（１０．１６％）,长爪沙鼠、布氏田鼠、达乌尔鼠兔为常见种,余为少见种。黄鼠密度与个体数呈正相关（Ｐ〈０．０００１）、五趾跳鼠与个体数、黄鼠密度呈负相关（Ｐ〈０．００１）。个体数与黄鼠、五趾跳鼠密度的回归模型为：（个体数）＝１     

单纯形加速法拟合生态学中的非线性模型

本文以Logistic模型,Taylor幂法则模型,Holling功能反应模型,以及种群内禀增长力Rm等模型的拟合和参数估计为例,探讨单纯形加速法在生态模型优化拟合和参数估计中的应用.结果表明,单纯形加速法拟合生态学中的非线性模型不仅适用广泛,而且拟合过程是直接求原来非线性模型的最优拟合,因而优于生态学中通常使用的将原模型“线性化后再拟合”的方法,而与其它一些最优化方法,如:麦夸方法、枚举选优法等比较,由于单纯形法不需计算目标函数的偏导数,因而计算不受目标函数及其偏导函数复杂程度的限制,而且对于各种模型其求优计算过程十分相似,可以编制统一的计算程序.本研究所编制的计算机程序对于本文未提到的其它一些模型也是完全适用的,在应用时仅需修改定义目标函数的自定义函数语句即可.研究也发现,在求优过程中,只要搜索系数选择适当和实际数据合理,是可以保证寻优成功的.     

离散广义Logistic模型的稳定性和浑沌现象

文[1]提出了单种生长的连续性文广义Logistic dx/dt=γx({K-x}/(K+px))其中γ>ο为种群的内禀生长率,K>0为环境容纳量,ν>-1表示种群对环境(包括营