Dynamic effects of predators on cyclic voles: field experimentation and model extrapolation

Mechanisms generating the well-known 3-5 year cyclic fluctuations in densities of northern small rodents (voles and lemmings) have remained an ecological puzzle for decades. The hypothesis that these fluctuations are caused by delayed density-dependent impacts of predators was tested by replicated field experimentation in western Finland. We reduced densities of all main mammalian and avian predators through a 3 year vole cycle and compared vole abundances between four reduction and four control areas (each 2.5-3 km(2)). The reduction of predator densities increased the autumn density of voles fourfold in the low phase, accelerated the increase twofold, increased the autumn density of voles twofold in the peak phase, and retarded the initiation of decline of the vole cycle. Extrapolating these experimental results to their expected long-term dynamic effects through a demographic model produces changes from regular multiannual cycles to annual fluctuations with declining densities of specialist predators. This supports the findings of the field experiment and is in agreement with the predation hypothesis. We conclude that predators may indeed generate the cyclic population fluctuations of voles observed in northern Europe.     

Experimental tests of the role of predation in the population dynamics of voles and lemmings

• 1 Reasons for fluctuating populations of small mammals have been intensively investigated since the early days of modern ecology. Particular interest has been taken in vole populations exhibiting multiannual oscillations. Much empirical and theoretical work has been accomplished to find out the key factor(s) driving these population cycles and many reviews have been written about the results.
• 2 One of the most plausible processes for explaining regular fluctuations in small mammals is predation. Here I review the existing literature on the experimental studies of the role of predation in vole population dynamics in the hope that a critical examination of these studies will help researchers improve the design of future experiments.
• 3 Most predation manipulations have been done in exclosures, but there are also studies that have attempted to reduce or increase predator numbers in non‐fenced areas, islands and enclosures.
• 4 As the number of experimental studies has increased, their quality in terms of replication, use of controls and realistic spatial and temporal scales has also improved.
• 5 Most studies have found population‐level effects of predator manipulations on prey populations. The effects have varied from very weak to very strong, reflecting dissimilar experimental designs and the great variety of predator–prey interactions among different kinds of species in different landscapes. Most of these studies show that predation limits population growth of voles, and in some circumstances even regulate vole population fluctuations, but none of them clearly demonstrates that predation consistently changes fluctuation patterns of voles.
• 6 To be able to assess more reliably the true role of predation on (cyclic) population fluctuations of voles, more competent experiments are still needed not only over the geographical range of cyclic population dynamics, but also in areas of weakly or non‐cyclic populations of voles.

     

Dynamics of voles and small mustelids in the taiga landscape of northern Fennoscandia in relation to habitat quality

In the forests of northern Fennoscandia during the I980's, the dynamics of microtine rodents changed from multiannual high amplitude fluctuations (cycles) to, depending on species, fluctuations with a strong seasonal component or fluctuations with smaller amplitude and lower frequency. Microtine and predator data from the Pallasjarvi area, Finnish Lapland, suggest that this transition took place at different rates in different parts of the taiga landscape. Generally, densities in forest habitats have been primarily seasonal since 198S-86. In mesic spruce taiga and in drier forest habitats microtines had a prolonged peak in 1981-83 and a crash in 1984-83. At the timberline, however, microtine populations dropped from peak to low densities already in 1982-83 but the final crash did not occur until spring 1985. The synchronous decrease in microtines densities in all habitat types in 1984-85 coincided with increase in weasel activity. Activity of other carnivores was consistently high in mesic lowland habitats. The data support following three conjectures. 1) Periodic abundance of least weasels is crucial for sustained vole cycles. 2) Predominance of stoats and other generalist predators lead to less regular fluctuations with a strong seasonal component where density declines occur in autumn and early winter. 3) In barren tundra areas, the vegetation cannot sustain high densities of microtines and. consequently, predation is not a necessary condition for population crashes.     

Large brood sizes of pied flycatcher, sparrowhawk and goshawk in peak microtine years: support for the mast depression hypothesis

The mast depression hypothesis (MDH) proposes that cyclic population fluctuations of microtines and other herbivores are an effect of cyclic seed cropping of plants. This is because high seed crops, termed masts, are produced at the expense of chemical defence against herbivores. It has generally been assumed that bird-hunting raptors produce high numbers of offspring when microtine prey are abundant because of reduced competition from generalist predators. However, this may also be caused by higher production of herbivorous insects, and thus insectivorous bird prey, because of lower contents of chemical defence compounds in some plant species, such as bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus and cowberry V. vitis-idaea. In Aust-Agder county, southern Norway, the mean brood size of pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus and goshawk A. gentilis was higher in peak vole years than in other years. The effect was not due to variation in nest predation, as only successful nesting attempts were included in the analyses. For the pied flycatcher, the annual proportion of large broods (>6 fledglings) was positively correlated with the vole trapping index. No correlation was found between the offspring production of goshawks and the proportion of voles in their diet. During a 3-year light-trapping study of nocturnal moths prior to our study, four moth species whose larvae ate Vaccinium were commonest in the vole peak year. All these results are consistent with the MDH. Received: 16 March 1998 / Accepted: 20 April 1998     

Does risk of predation by mammalian predators affect the spacing behaviour of rodents? Two large-scale experiments

Predator-prey interactions between small mammals and their avian and mammalian predators have attracted much attention. However, large-scale field experiments examining small-mammal antipredatory responses under the risk of predation by mammals are rare. As recently pointed out, the scale of experiments may cause misleading results in studies of decision-making under predation risk. We studied the effect of small mustelid predators on the spacing behaviour of the gray-tailed vole (Microtus canicaudus) and the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) in two separate field enclosure experiments. The experiments were conducted during the breeding season in North America and northern Europe, where small mustelids have been suggested to be important mammalian predators of voles. As in most of the earlier laboratory studies, predation risk was simulated using fresh mustelid faeces and urine. This made it possible to compare the results from experiments at different spatial scales. We did not find any effect of increased predation risk on spacing behaviour (mean and/or maximum distance moved and home range size) or trappability in either vole species. Simulated predation risk did not affect the breeding of females in gray-tailed voles, as has previously been shown in bank voles. The results disagree with most of the studies conducted in laboratory conditions with small mammals. We discuss whether this discrepancy could be caused by differences in the scale of the experiments. Received: 12 April 1999 / Accepted: 7 October 1999     

Species‐specific limitation of vole population growth by least weasel predation: facilitation of coexistence?

Interspecific competition is usually understood as different species competing directly with each other for limited resources. However, predators can alter such competitive interactions substantially. Predation can promote the coexistence of species in a situation where it would otherwise be impossible, for example if a tradeoff between the competitive abilities and predation resistance of the prey species exists. The field vole Microtus agrestis and the sibling vole M. rossiaemeridionalis are sympatric grassland species, which compete for the same resources. At the population level sibling voles are suggested to be superior competitors to field voles, yet more vulnerable to predation. We tested the effects of predation on the two species in 0.5 ha outdoor enclosures by exposing vole populations to radio-collared freely-hunting least weasels Mustela nivalis nivalis for three weeks. Lethal and non-lethal impacts of predation limited population densities of both species during and after the experimental period, but the effect was more pronounced in sibling voles in which population densities decreased markedly during the treatment period and even after that. Field vole population densities remained stable under weasel predation, while densities increased in controls. Survival in both species was lower in treatment populations compared to controls, but the effect tended to be more pronounced in sibling voles and in females of both species. The average mass of adults in both species declined in the treatment populations. These results suggest that predation by least weasels can limit vole populations locally, even during favourable summer conditions, and have extended negative effects on the dynamics of vole populations. In addition, predation alleviated interspecific competition between the vole species and is, therefore, a potential factor enabling the coexistence of them.     

Population cycles in voles and lemmings: state of the science and future directions

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Predator population dynamics under a cyclic prey regime: numerical responses,demographic parameters and growth rates

The consequences of cyclic fluctuations in abundance of prey species on predator continue to improve our understanding of the mechanisms behind population regulation. Among predators, vole‐eating raptors usually respond to changes in prey abundance with no apparent time‐lag and therefore contradict predictions from the predator–prey theory. In such systems, the interplay between demographic traits and population growth rate in relation to prey abundance remains poorly studied, yet it is crucial to characterize the link between ecological processes and population changes. Using a mechanistic approach, we assessed the demographic rates associated to the direct and indirect numerical responses of a specialist raptor (Montagu's harrier) to its cyclic prey (common vole), using long term data from two adjacent study sites in France. First‐year survival rates were weakly affected by vole abundance, probably due to the fact that Montagu's harriers are trans‐Saharan migrants and thus escape the vole collapse occurring in autumn–winter. Recruitment of yearling as well as breeding propensity of experienced adult females were strongly affected by vole abundance and at least partially shaped the trajectory of the breeding population. We argued that the strong density dependent signal detected in predator time series was mostly the phenomenological consequence of the positive direct numerical response of harriers to vole abundance. Accounting for this, we proposed a method to assess density dependence in predator relying on a cyclic prey. Finally, the variation in Montagu's harrier population growth rates was best explained by overwinter growth rates of the prey population and to a lesser extent by previous residual predator density.     

Timing of vole hunting in aerial predators: RAPTOR GROUP RUG/RIJP*

In a short but intense field investigation, surface activity of common voles in a cropped lucerne field was assayed by live-trapping while, simultaneously, hunting activity and yield of three species of raptors were recorded by continuous observation. Pronounced short-term rhythms in trappability of the vole population ran parallel with fluctuations in yield per hour of flight-hunt of hen harriers and kestrels. These raptors, as well as Rough-legged buzzards, hunted more at times of increased vole surface activity; hen harriers saved c. 15 hours of flight-hunt per day by such temporal adjustment, corresponding to about 12% of their daily energy intake. Voles suffered a predation rate of an estimated 0 2% per day; under such heavy predation and temporal concentration of raptor hunting at times of increased vole activity, surface feeding in synchrony with the vole majority was associated with increased risk of predation.     

田鼠种群波动的原因和时间

本文总结了橙腹田鼠（Microtus ochrogaster）和草原田鼠（M．permsylvanicus）25年的种群统计学研究结果和结论。探讨了田鼠种群波动周期性、诱发种群波动以及导致波动期间峰值变异的因素。并对种群存活值和繁殖活动的作用进行了分析和评价。根据两种田鼠种群波动周期性、波动峰值出现的时间以及特定年份峰值的高度等特征,证明两物种波动均具有不稳定性。两种田鼠存活值的变化是由特定年份是否发生波动以及波动峰值出现的时间决定。增加初始阶段的种群密度及时间长度是造成两种动物种群波动峰值不同的主要原因。橙腹田鼠种群停止增长的原因是存活值降低,而草原田鼠则是繁殖活动减少。据推测,与种群波动初始密度相关的种群死亡率的差异是由捕食者的净效应（Net effect）决定的,调控两种群密度的因素均为非密度的其它生态学因子。由于特定年份田鼠种群捕食压力的不确定性,导致了橙腹田鼠和草原田鼠种群波动的不稳定性。     

Fox predation on cyclic field vole populations in Britain

The diet of the red fox Vulpes vulpes L. was studied during three winter periods in spruce pklantations in Britain, during which time the cyclic field vole Microtus agrestis L. populations varied in abundance. Field voles and roe deer Capreolus capreolus L. were the two main prey species in the diet of the red fox. The contribution of lagomorphs to fox diet never exceeded 35% and species of small mammal other than field voles were of minor importance. The contribution of field voles was dependent on vole density. The non-linear density dependent relationship with a rather abrupt increase of field voles in fox did when vole density exceeded ca 100 voles ha⁻¹ was consistent with a prey-switching response. The contribution of field voles to fox diet during the low phase of population cycles was lower in Kielder Forest than in other ecosystems with cyclic vole populations. The number of foxes killed annually by forestry rangers was consistent with the evidence from other studies that foxes preying on cyclic small rodents might show a delayed numerical response to changes in vole abundance. Estimates of the maximum predation rate of the fox alone (200–290 voles ha⁻¹ of vole habitat year⁻¹) was well above a previously predicted value for the whole generalist predator community in Kielder Forest. Our data on the functional response of red foxes and estimates of their predation rates suggest that foxes should have a strong stabilising impact on vole populations, yet voles show characteristic 3-4 yr cycles.     

Heterogeneous landscapes and the role of refuge on the population dynamics of a specialist predator and its prey

How, and where, a prey species survives predation by a specialist predator during low phases of population fluctuations or a cycle, and how the increase phase of prey population is initiated, are much-debated questions in population and theoretical ecology. The persistence of the prey species could be due mainly to habitats that act as refuges from predation and/or due to anti-predatory behaviour of individuals. We present models for the former conjecture in two (and three) habitat systems with a specialist predator and its favoured prey. The model is based on dispersal of prey between habitats with high reproductive output but high risk of predation, and less productive habitats with relatively low risk of predation. We illustrate the predictions of our model using parameters from one of the most intriguing vertebrate predator–prey systems, the multi-annual population cycles of boreal voles and their predators. We suggest that cyclic population dynamics could result from a sequence of extinction and re–colonization events. Field voles (Microtus agrestis), a key vole species in the system, can be hunted to extinction in their preferred meadow habitat, but persist in sub-optimal wet habitats where their main predator, the least weasel (Mustela nivalis nivalis) has a low hunting efficiency. Re–colonization of favourable habitats would occur after the predator population crashes. At the local scale, the model suggests that the periodicity and amplitude of population cycles can be strongly influenced by the relative availability of risky and safe habitats for the prey. Furthermore, factors like intra-guild predation may lead to reduced predation pressure on field voles in sub-optimal habitats, which would act as a refuge for voles during the low phase of their population cycles. Elasticity analysis suggested that our model is quite robust to changes in most parameters but sensitive to changes in the population dynamics of field voles in the optimal grassland habitat, and to the maximum predation rate of weasels.     

Population fluctuations of Field voles (Microtus): a background to the problems involved in predicting vole plagues

The course of various investigations into vole cycles is briefly reviewed and it is shown that an increasing proportion of workers are looking for intrinsic mechanisms of control which might cause the periodic fluctuations; however, no single line of investigation can be said to dominate the field and extrinsic factors such as food supply or predation could be heavily involved. The majority of work has failed to take into account the spatial aspects of these cycles and future work in this field might resolve some of the conflicts about the demographic aspects. As yet few workers have considered vole cycles on a geographical scale and just how these major changes in abundance relate to the local fluctuations of smaller populations is not known. Various methods used to measure vole densities are reviewed and suggestions are made on how they can be used to provide information on different aspects of vole population studies.     

Smaller Microtus vole species competitively superior in the absence of predators

Interspecific competition is assumed to generate negative effects on coexisting species, possibly including slower population growth and lower survival. The field vole ( Microtus agrestis ) and the sibling vole ( M. rossiaemeridionalis ) are sympatric close relatives which compete for similar resources. Previous non-experimental studies suggest that the smaller sibling vole is a superior competitor, yet more vulnerable to predation than the larger field vole. We studied the effects of coexistence on population densities, reproductive parameters, and survival in these two species by means of experimentation in large, predator-free outdoor enclosures. While populations of both species reached higher densities in the absence of the other, field voles appeared to suffer more from interspecific competition than sibling voles. The proportion of young individuals in the population was higher in the sibling vole than in the field vole at the end of the experiment. The presence of a coexisting species reduced the survival of field voles. Sibling voles, on the other hand, appeared to suffer more from intraspecific competition than interspecific competition. On a population level, the sibling vole seems to be a superior competitor in the absence of predators due to better survival and possibly a higher reproductive capacity. However, predation probably has a profound influence on the interspecific dynamics of these two species indicating that in natural surroundings apparent competition (i.e. competition via shared predators) is stronger than direct competition.     

Competition, predation and interspecific synchrony in cyclic small mammal communities

Although competition and predation are considered to be among the most important biotic processes influencing the distribution and abundance of species in space and time, the relative and interactive roles of these processes in communities comprised of cyclically fluctuating populations of small mammals are not well known. We examined these processes in and among populations of field voles, sibling voles, bank voles and common shrews in western Finland, using spatially replicated trapping data collected four times a year during two vole cycles (1987–1990 and 1997–1999). Populations of the four species exhibited relatively strong interspecific temporal synchrony in their multiannual fluctuations. During peak phases, we observed slight deviations from close temporal synchrony: field vole densities peaked at least two months earlier than those of either sibling voles or bank voles, while densities of common shrews peaked even earlier. The growth rates of all four coexisting small mammal species were best explained by their own current densities. The growth rate of bank vole populations was negatively related to increasing densities of field voles in the increase phase of the vole cycle. Apart from this, no negative effects of interspecific density, direct or delayed, were observed among the vole species. The growth rates of common shrew populations were negatively related to increasing total rodent (including water voles and harvest mice) densities in the peak phase of the vole cycle. Sibling voles appeared not to be competitively superior to field voles on a population level, as neither of these Microtus voles increased disproportionately in abundance as total rodent density increased. We suggest that interspecific competition among the vole species may occur, but only briefly, during the autumn of peak years, when the total available amount of rodent habitat becomes markedly reduced following agricultural practices. Our results nonetheless indicate that interspecific competition is not a strong determinant of the structure of communities comprised of species exhibiting cyclic dynamics. We suggest that external factors, namely predation and shortage of food, limit densities of vole populations below levels where interspecific competition occurs. Common shrews, however, appear to suffer from asymmetric space competition with rodents at peak densities of voles; this may be viewed as a synchronizing effect.     

Numerical response of small mustelids to vole abundance: delayed or not?

One of the most studied problems in population ecology has been to understand the relative roles of top–down and bottom–up forces in regulating animal populations. This has also been a key issue in studies of vole population dyna mics. Vole populations exhibit a wide variation of dynamics, from seasonal fluctuations to multiannual variations or cyclicity. One of the hypotheses to explain cyclic population dynamics is predation by the specialist predators. A common counterargument against the predation hypothesis has been the lack of conclusive observations of the time delay in the predators’ numerical response. We studied the interaction between voles and their specialist small mustelid predators, the stoat Mustela erminea and the least weasel Mustela n. nivalis, by modelling their interaction to data sets that cover large areas of Finland. Vole abundance was monitored with biannual trappings and their predators with snow‐tracking. Results show a high dependence of the predators on the voles, and this connection is generally tighter in weasels than in stoats. Weasel abundance is affected most strongly by the vole abundance in previous spring, 8.5– 10 months earlier, while in stoats the effect of autumn abundance of voles, 2.5–6 months earlier, was the strongest. These results, together with the observation that the weasels’ effects on voles are stronger after a time lag of 6–9.5 than 2–4.5 months, indicate the existence of a time lag in weasels’ numerical response. A time lag in the predators’ numerical response is a necessary condition for the predators to drive population cycles in its prey, and therefore our results support the specialist predation hypothesis.     

Multiple predators induce risk reduction in coexisting vole species

Large predators may affect the hunting efficiency of smaller ones directly by decreasing their numbers, or indirectly by altering their behaviour. Either way this may have positive effects on the density of shared prey. Using large outdoor enclosures, we experimentally studied whether the presence of the Tengmalm's owl Aegolius funereus affects the hunting efficiency of the smallest member of the vole-eating predator guild, the least weasel Mustela nivalis, as measured by population responses of coexisting prey species, the field vole Microtus agrestis and the sibling vole M. levis . We compared the density and survival probability of vole populations exposed to no predation, weasel predation or combined predation by a weasel and an owl. The combined predation of both owl and weasel did not result in obvious changes in the density of sibling and field vole populations compared to the control populations without predators, while predation by least weasel alone decreased the densities of sibling voles and induced a similar trend in field vole densities. Survival of field voles was not affected by predator treatment while sibling vole survival was lower in predator treated populations than in control populations. Our results suggest that weasels are intimidated by avian predators, but without changing the effects of predators on competitive situations between the two vole species. Non-lethal effects of intraguild predation therefore will not necessarily change competitive interactions between shared prey species.     

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background

Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling.

Methodology/Principal Findings

By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations.

Significance

There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics.     

Breeding suppression in the bank vole as antipredatory adaptation in a predictable environment

Summary In northern Fennoscandia, microtine rodent populations fluctuate cyclically. The environment of an individual vole can be considered to be predictable when the risks of predation and intra- and interspecific competition change with the cycle, such that both are high during the population highs of voles. The risk of predation is also high during the vole crash. After the crash, the vole population is characterized by low intra- and interspecific competition and low predation pressure. The main predators affecting voles during the crash are the small mustelids, least weasel and stoat. The density of these specialist predators declines drastically during the winter after the vole crash. We studied experimentally the impact of the perceived presence of stoats on the breeding and mating behaviour of voles. In a series of breeding experiments with bank voles,Clethrionomys glareolus, both old and young females suppressed breeding when exposed to the odour of stoats,Mustela erminea. The weights of females decreased in both experimental and control groups, but more among the voles under odour exposition. It seems that females actively avoided copulations under high predation risk and that breeding suppression is mediated by a change in female mating behaviour. There was no change in male behaviour or physical condition between the experimental and control treatments. An alternative mechanism for the observed breeding suppression could be the one caused by decreased feeding in females mediated with low energy intake which does not allow breeding. Regardless of its mechanism, delay of breeding should increase the probability of non-breeding females to survive to the next breeding season. The females surviving the crash should gain a strong selective advantage in a predator-free environment of the subsequent breeding season, which could explain the adaptive function of this antipredatory strategy.     

Fading out of vole and predator cycles?

Northern voles and lemmings are famous for their spectacular multiannual population cycles with high amplitudes. Such cyclic vole populations in Scandinavia have shown an unexpected and marked long-term decline in density since the early 1970s, particularly with a marked shift to lower spring densities in the early 1980s. The vole decline, mainly characterized by a strongly decreased rate of change in numbers over winter, is associated with an increased occurrence of mild and wet winters brought about by a recent change in the North Atlantic Oscillation. This has led to a decrease in winter stability and has shortened the period with protective snow cover, the latter considered as an important prerequisite for the occurrence of multiannual, high-amplitude cycles in vole populations. Although the vole decline is predicted to be negative for predators' reproduction and abundance, empirical data showing this are rare. Here we show that the dynamics of a predator-prey system (Tengmalm's owl, Aegolius funereus, and voles), have in recent years gradually changed from 3-4 yr, high-amplitude cycles towards more or less annual fluctuations only.