Aggregated mental models predict observed outcomes following Eurasian Beaver (Castor fiber) reintroduction

Outcome prediction is important for conservation; however, analysis may be hampered by specialist resource deficiencies. Mental modelling techniques offer a potential solution, drawing on accessible sources of knowledge held informally by local stakeholders. Mental models show linked social and ecological variables from the perspectives of community members, whose insights may otherwise be neglected. Currently, an important weakness in conservation mental modelling is inadequate attention paid to real-time model predictive validity. To address this knowledge gap, baseline mental model predictions concerning Beaver (Castor fiber) reintroduction in Southwest England were followed up at three years. Participants were invited to submit outcome observations for concept variables identified in their original models, blind to inferences based on model dynamic analysis, so that the two sets of data could be compared. Individual concept values and models were found to show weak and highly inconsistent predictive validity, however, multi-stakeholder aggregated mental models showed consistently strong predictive performance. This finding was enhanced by setting tighter thresholds for inclusion of individual model items in aggregation procedures. Threshold effects can be interpreted as a reflection of greater agreement: tighter thresholds retain more highly shared model components. It is proposed that enhanced real-time predictive validity for aggregated models is explained by a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ statistical effect, analogous to well-recognised crowd judgement effects observed in relation to much simpler questions. The findings show the scope for stakeholder mental modelling methods as an investigative tool, to supplement more conventional ecosystem assessments in predicting data-poor conservation outcomes.     

Multiple conservation criteria,discursive conflicts and stakeholder preferences in the era of ecological modernization

Implementation of conservation plans as the final stage of a long process of institutionalization of modern strategic environmental management theory meets with difficulties in real world conditions. When actual application of scientific principles is confronted with public appreciation and engagement on the ground, the perception per se of—and reaction to—the scientific discourse and technical arguments regarding conservation value(s) of designated areas, it often turns into a critique by local communities of the preponderant role of experts and the dominance of a western scientific worldview in the ecological modernization era. In this paper, we develop the formalism—and use variations—of a multiplicative model of conservation value, involving concepts that are central to the IPBES decomposition of values into interacting meanings: principles and preferences. Technically, overall valuation after a suite of conservation criteria of an exemplary designated site, i.e. the Natura 2000 Kalloni Gulf, Greece, is decomposed into the product of two factors, technical score and appreciation, as perceived by a series of local influential stakeholder groups. We use a multi-criteria valuation profile adopted and promoted by scientific experts as reference to which respective valuations of stakeholder groups are contrasted. The study refers to a case where a two decade-long fierce social conflict drove to stagnation the implementation process. Divergence(s) in scoring and appreciation of conservation criteria between scientific experts versus local stakeholder groups are measured using our models variables and classic decomposition analysis techniques. Our model(s) treat the following problems: (1) the relative effects of singular conservation criteria when only one conservation criterion in one site is considered; (2) the relative effects of multiple conservation criteria when applied in one site. A narrative story is attempted regarding discursive conflicts between social groups in the studied case: (1) a pattern of mistrust of the public against scientific discourse on conservation planning: scientists are perceived just as ‘another stakeholder group’ promoting their own pro-conservation agenda; (2) a NIMBY-like reaction based on individuals’ property-defence discourse; and, (3) the by-effects of poor governance in downscaling decision-making from centralized to regional/local level.     

Risk-Based Approaches to Managing Contaminants in Catchments

Risk-based methods promise improved decision-making for managing of contaminants, such as salinity, sediments, nutrients, and toxicants, that can adversely affect the ecological condition of aquatic ecosystems. Two aspects of ecological risk assessment (ERA) and management—stakeholder involvement and more quantitative approaches to risk analysis—are particularly challenging. Stakeholder involvement is crucial both in the risk assessment process and the development, acceptance, and implementation of a risk management plan. Additionally, a number of quantitative approaches (particularly Bayesian approaches and multi-criteria decision-making) have been identified as having the potential to include expert-based inputs into risk-based decision-making. These offer promise for better inclusion of stakeholder knowledge and preferences into the decision-making process, and for improving the links between stakeholder inputs and potential risks to the ecological condition of the system. A major challenge for ecologists and natural resource managers is to make the ERA process more quantitative. Most ERAs conducted to date have been qualitative assessments that suffer from a number of deficiencies, the most serious being the lack of transparency and a reliance on subjective judgments. This article argues that the most productive way forward may be to use Bayesian methods to couple existing process-based models, empirical relationships based on good data, and expert opinion, to make the analysis of ecological risks more robust, consistent, and repeatable.     

The MIAmaxent R package: Variable transformation and model selection for species distribution models

The widely used “Maxent” software for modeling species distributions from presence‐only data (Phillips et al., Ecological Modelling, 190, 2006, 231) tends to produce models with high‐predictive performance but low‐ecological interpretability, and implications of Maxent's statistical approach to variable transformation, model fitting, and model selection remain underappreciated. In particular, Maxent's approach to model selection through lasso regularization has been shown to give less parsimonious distribution models—that is, models which are more complex but not necessarily predictively better—than subset selection. In this paper, we introduce the MIAmaxent R package, which provides a statistical approach to modeling species distributions similar to Maxent's, but with subset selection instead of lasso regularization. The simpler models typically produced by subset selection are ecologically more interpretable, and making distribution models more grounded in ecological theory is a fundamental motivation for using MIAmaxent. To that end, the package executes variable transformation based on expected occurrence–environment relationships and contains tools for exploring data and interrogating models in light of knowledge of the modeled system. Additionally, MIAmaxent implements two different kinds of model fitting: maximum entropy fitting for presence‐only data and logistic regression (GLM) for presence–absence data. Unlike Maxent, MIAmaxent decouples variable transformation, model fitting, and model selection, which facilitates methodological comparisons and gives the modeler greater flexibility when choosing a statistical approach to a given distribution modeling problem.     

基于不同利益相关者认知分析的生态移民安置区生态风险识别

生态移民安置区内,不同群体在生态环境保护方面存在复杂的利益冲突.基于安置区内利益群体对风险类别、干扰强度的识别,构建相应的决策模型,是生态移民安置区生态风险管理亟待解决的重要课题.本文依据利益相关者理论划分出生态移民安置区4类不同利益群体,并采用参与式半结构访谈法和定性聚合法,构建了3类一级变量和13个二级变量的生态风险因子体系,进一步运用模糊认知图模型(FCM)和人工神经网络(ANN)开展生态移民安置区生态风险识别.结果表明: 从利益相关者群体生态风险变量认知来看,其共同点是不同利益群体对垃圾污染风险变量提及数量最多,但整体上又存在显著差异,即管理者注重环境保护政策的制定和实施;居民则关注生活水平的提高,且直接关系到其环保意识和行为;经济活动者多追求经济利益;环境保护者专注于生态环境问题.不同利益相关者群体认知图论指数结果显示,管理者和环境保护者对安置区生态风险认知较为全面且清晰.从安置区4方利益相关者的整体风险认知结果来看,生态环境风险因子显著影响居民的人身安全及满意度;公共政策对安置区风险管理起关键作用;风险变量的中心度结果进一步表明,提高居民生活水平是防范生态风险的关键.从利益相关者群体生态风险感知与管理情景模拟结果来看,解决垃圾污染有助于生态环境整体改善,且关键是要完善和落实相关公共政策;建立健全社会保障制度,直接关系居民生活水平和环保行为;加强基础设施建设,影响景观生态格局、生物生境和多样性,同时可提高居民满意度和公众参与度.     

Palaeontology., adaptation and community ecology: A response to Walter and Pater son (1994)

Abstract This paper challenges Walter and Paterson's (1994) assertion that the community concept ought to be abandoned because of recent palaeontological evidence pointing to the ‘individualistic’ nature of biological communities. The ‘individualistic’ versus ‘superorganismic’ community concepts might provide good grist for the philosophical mill, but have little practical relevance to contemporary community ecology. Ecologists define communities in terms of current species distributions and interactions, and seek to integrate the roles of both biotic and abiotic factors influencing species distributions. There is no assumption of tight co-evolution among component species; Walter and Paterson confuse ‘organization’ with ‘co-adaptation’. Nor, contrary to the authors’ claims, is there an implicit assumption that all community patterns are caused by competition. For most ecologists, the ‘competition debate’ ended a decade ago. Walter and Paterson's view that competition is rarely, if ever, important in structuring communities is not even held by the main protaganists of the ‘competition is not so important’ school of the 1980s, and is in direct contradiction of the extensive, more recent literature on the subject. It entirely ignores plant ecology. Many of Walter and Paterson's misunderstandings appear to arise from the false premise that explanation of adaptation should be the ultimate goal of any ecological discipline. The authors are hostile to community ecology because, if communities are individualistic, then little light can be shed on species adaptations. Fortunately, most ecologists are not so preoccupied with adaptation.     

Should conservation of biodiversity involve private land? A Q methodological study in Poland to assess stakeholders’ attitude

Biodiversity conservation is gradually shifting its dependency on public protected areas to take a more holistic ecosystem and landscape approach that includes private lands in addition to public lands. However, effective practice of biodiversity conservation on private land also depends on landowners’ attitude and their willingness to participate and cooperate. This study focuses on Poland where conservation on private land is a relatively new concept but it is slowly gaining recognition, especially after its accession into the European Union. It investigates and classifies the diverse attitudes among stakeholder groups in Poland toward biodiversity conservation on private land that are part of protected areas. Four primary stakeholder groups were considered: conservation and park authorities, local administrative officials, local conservation based NGOs and private landowners. The study was conducted across three sites that represented three different forms of protected areas in Poland: a national park, a landscape park and a Natura 2000 site. Q methodology, a research method from psychology and other social sciences, was used to classify human subjectivity in stakeholders’ attitude in a more systematic manner. The analysis yielded three predominant factors which highlighted the diversity in attitudes among the stakeholder groups based on their knowledge, concerns and experience in the subject. Additionally, it underlined the common recognition among all stakeholder groups for better policy support, stronger collaboration among stakeholder and more financial or compensatory support for landowners to make private land conservation more feasible. Understanding the differences in attitudes will help bridge the gap between conservation priority and conservation opportunity—a current challenge in the field of biodiversity conservation.     

Modeling the habitat suitability for deep-water gorgonian corals based on terrain variables

The coral species Paragorgia arborea and Primnoa resedaeformis are abundant and widely distributed gorgonians in North Atlantic waters. Both species add significant habitat complexity to the benthic environment, and support a host of invertebrate species. Mapping their distribution is an essential step in conservation and resource management, but challenging as a result of their remoteness. In this study, three predictive models — Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production and Maximum Entropy modeling (MaxEnt) were applied to predict the distribution of species' suitable habitat across a region of Røst Reef (Norwegian margin) based on multiscale terrain variables.All three models were successful in predicting the habitat suitability for both gorgonian species across the study area, and the MaxEnt predictions were shown to outperform other predictions. All three models predicted the most suitable habitats for both species to mainly occur along the ridges and on the upper section of the large slide, suggesting both species preferentially colonize topographic highs. Jackknife tests for MaxEnt predictions highlighted the seabed aspect in relation to P. arborea distribution, and the seabed relative position (curvature) in relation to the distribution of both species. Given the vulnerability of deep-water corals to anthropogenic impacts, further comparative study over a wider study area would be particularly beneficial for the management of the species.     

Tree invasions: patterns,processes, challenges and opportunities

Tree invasions have escalated in importance in the last few decades (more species, greater area invaded, more types of impacts, increasing complexity of management challenges), and are increasingly studied from many perspectives. This research spans many disciplines, including ecology, population biology, genetics, remote sensing, ecological modelling, risk analysis, resource economics and, increasingly, the humanities. There has been substantial progress in understanding patterns and processes, but many unanswered questions remain. Only a few invasive trees have been well studied, many of them in only a small part of their invasive range. Invasive trees often have substantial impacts, especially when they invade formerly treeless vegetation. Trees have several features that make them useful for understanding key aspects of biological invasions (the determinants of invasiveness and invasibility), but also the full spectrum of human perceptions and values that frames biological invasions as an environmental problem. This editorial provides background and summarizes the main outputs from a workshop held in Argentina in September 2012 that set out to summarize current knowledge on key topics and to determine the most important challenges facing researchers and managers. The sixteen papers in the special issue of Biological Invasions span disciplines, geographic regions and taxa and provide novel insights on pathways and historical perspectives, detection and monitoring, determinants of invasiveness, function and impact, and the many challenges that face managers.     

Integration of software tools for integrative modeling of biomolecular systems

Integrative modeling computes a model based on varied types of input information, be it from experiments or prior models. Often, a type of input information will be best handled by a specific modeling software package. In such a case, we desire to integrate our integrative modeling software package, Integrative Modeling Platform (IMP), with software specialized to the computational demands of the modeling problem at hand. After several attempts, however, we have concluded that even in collaboration with the software’s developers, integration is either impractical or impossible. The reasons for the intractability of integration include software incompatibilities, differing modeling logic, the costs of collaboration, and academic incentives. In the integrative modeling software ecosystem, several large modeling packages exist with often redundant tools. We reason, therefore, that the other development groups have similarly concluded that the benefit of integration does not justify the cost. As a result, modelers are often restricted to the set of tools within a single software package. The inability to integrate tools from distinct software negatively impacts the quality of the models and the efficiency of the modeling. As the complexity of modeling problems grows, we seek to galvanize developers and modelers to consider the long-term benefit that software interoperability yields. In this article, we formulate a demonstrative set of software standards for implementing a model search using tools from independent software packages and discuss our efforts to integrate IMP and the crystallography suite Phenix within the Bayesian modeling framework.     

Assessing Fishers' Support of Striped Bass Management Strategies

Incorporating the perspectives and insights of stakeholders is an essential component of ecosystem-based fisheries management, such that policy strategies should account for the diverse interests of various groups of anglers to enhance their efficacy. Here we assessed fishing stakeholders’ perceptions on the management of Atlantic striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and receptiveness to potential future regulations using an online survey of recreational and commercial fishers in Massachusetts and Connecticut (USA). Our results indicate that most fishers harbored adequate to positive perceptions of current striped bass management policies when asked to grade their state’s management regime. Yet, subtle differences in perceptions existed between recreational and commercial fishers, as well as across individuals with differing levels of fishing experience, resource dependency, and tournament participation. Recreational fishers in both states were generally supportive or neutral towards potential management actions including slot limits (71%) and mandated circle hooks to reduce mortality of released fish (74%), but less supportive of reduced recreational bag limits (51%). Although commercial anglers were typically less supportive of management changes than their recreational counterparts, the majority were still supportive of slot limits (54%) and mandated use of circle hooks (56%). Our study suggests that both recreational and commercial fishers are generally supportive of additional management strategies aimed at sustaining healthy striped bass populations and agree on a variety of strategies. However, both stakeholder groups were less supportive of harvest reductions, which is the most direct measure of reducing mortality available to fisheries managers. By revealing factors that influence stakeholders’ support or willingness to comply with management strategies, studies such as ours can help managers identify potential stakeholder support for or conflicts that may result from regulation changes.     

Why conserve biodiversity? A multi-national exploration of stakeholders’ views on the arguments for biodiversity conservation

Given the concern about biodiversity loss, there are a number of arguments used for biodiversity conservation ranging from those emphasising the intrinsic value of biodiversity to those on the direct use value of ecosystems. Yet arguing the case for biodiversity conservation effectively requires an understanding of why people value biodiversity. We used Q methodology to explore and understand how different conservation practitioners (social and natural science researchers, environmental non-Governmental organisations and decision-makers) in nine European countries argue for conservation. We found that there was a plurality of views about biodiversity and its conservation. A moral argument and some arguments around the intrinsic and ecological value of biodiversity were held by all stakeholder groups. They also shared the view that species valuation does not justify the destruction of nature. However, there were also some differences within and between the groups, which primarily reflected the espousal of either ecocentric or anthropocentric viewpoints. Our findings suggest that moral arguments and those around biodiversity’s intrinsic and ecological value could potentially serve as a starting point for building consensus among conservation practitioners.     

An improved environmental index based on the relative abundance of oligochaete species

Howmiller & Scott (1977) presented an ‘Environmental Index’ based on thorough knowledge of the ecological demands of species of freshwater oligochaetes frequently found in North American waters. These authors emphasized the fact that common diversity measures do not utilize information about the ecological attributes of the constituent species but rather about community structure. A modification of the ‘Environmental Index’ is here presented with the aim of increasing its sensitivity in Europe and possibly also in North America. Four ecological groups are here preferred to the original three, and the ecological valence of the ‘key-species’ Tubifex tubifex is discussed at some length. Whereas most environmental and diversity indices remain little affected by changes in the total abundance of oligochaetes, the modified index is sensitive to such changes. Comparisons are made with two of the most popular diversity indices applied to specific situations, i.e. the Shannon-Weaver index and Simpson's index. In spite of recommendation in pollution manuals, indices of diversity may be inadequate in correctly characterizing situations of nutrient enrichment of freshwater environments. In the present study it is stressed that low diversity is usually found at both ends of the trophic scale and high diversity, which is supposed to characterize a clean and unstressed environment, is generally obtained in zones of transit between oligotrophic and eutrophic conditions — a likely result of the ‘nonequilibrium state’ described by Connell (1978) from coral reefs and rain forests in the tropics.     

Randomization Modelling of the Crossover Experiment for Clinical Trials

The two-period cross-over experiment for clinical trials has been examined by several writers following a Gaussian linear model approach. Some authors have expressed interest in the “derivation of the finite permutation model” and have pointed out that the randomization approach to modeling the two-period cross-over design “would highlight the importance of randomizing the subjects to the two groups as a basis for inference”. However, in the literature, there is no development of the randomization approach to this important design. In this paper, after a statement of the experimental design and formulation of the observation random variables of the finite population, two additive randomization models—one with residual effects, the other without—which are the analogues of Grizzle's Gaussian models, are derived. Statistical inference is developed for these randomization models and the results are compared with those of the corresponding Gaussian models. Also, exact inference based upon Fischer's approach is presented.     

Why aren't there more black football managers?

Abstract

The number of black and minority ethnic (BME) managers in English professional association football, or soccer, has been stable for nearly ten years: there are usually between two and four (out of a possible ninety two). Yet black players regularly make up more than a quarter of professional club squads. The reasons for this apparent under-representation are explored among 1,000 football fans, including players and ex-players, both white and BME. Opinions were solicited via an online research platform http://www.topfan.co.uk, designed and executed by the authors. The findings indicate 56 per cent of respondents believe racism operates at the executive levels of football, i.e. the boardroom. While some accuse club owners and directors of deliberate discrimination, most suspect a form of unwitting or institutional racism in which assumptions about black people's capacities are not analysed and challenged and so continue to circulate. Among the possible remedies to this is the American National Football League's Rooney Rule, which mandates BME candidates’ inclusion on shortlists for senior coaching positions. A third of participants in the research approved of this type of initiative. While black managers are scarce when compared to the number of black players in professional football, their presence is actually an accurate reflection of their number in the total British population. So is the dearth of black managers an under-representation?     

Toward an adequate mathematical model of mental space: Conscious/unconscious dynamics on m-adic trees

We try to perform geometrization of cognitive science and psychology by representing information states of cognitive systems by points of mental space given by a hierarchic m-adic tree. Associations are represented by balls and ideas by collections of balls. We consider dynamics of ideas based on lifting of dynamics of mental points. We apply our dynamical model for modeling of flows of unconscious and conscious information in the human brain. In a series of models, Models 1–3, we consider cognitive systems with increasing complexity of psychological behavior determined by structure of flows of associations and ideas.     

Personality,Relationship Conflict,and Teamwork-Related Mental Models

This study seeks to explore whether neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness moderate the influence of relationship conflict experienced in groups on changes in group members'' evaluative cognitions related to teamwork quality (teamwork-related mental models). Data from 216 students, nested in 48 groups were analyzed using a multilevel modeling approach. Our results show that the experience of relationship conflict leads to a negative shift from the pre-task to the post-task teamwork-related mental models. Moreover, the results indicate that conscientiousness buffered the negative association between relationship conflict and the change in teamwork-related mental models. Our results did not support the hypothesized moderating effect of agreeableness and show that the detrimental effect of relationship conflict on the shift in teamwork-related mental models is accentuated for group members scoring low rather than high on neuroticism. These findings open new research venues for exploring the association between personality, coping styles and change in teamwork-related mental models.     

Multi‐model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi‐arid shrub

A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi‐model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata, we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi‐model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.     

The effects of information in a resource management problem: A social trap analog

A resource management simulation was devised in which players could harvest points for individual short-term gain, causing the premature destruction of the resource pool, or they could curb their own individual harvesting to preserve the pool for a longer overall supply. Although the first strategy was explained to be self-defeating, most groups opted for it, as they did even when an optimal harvesting strategy was provided that would avoid pool destruction. Groups whose members were allowed to communicate generally made better resource managers and achieved larger individual harvests.     

Probabilistic modeling and mapping of plant indicator species in a Northeast Oregon industrial forest,USA

Managing forest ecosystems for sustainable, multiple use requires forest resource managers to understand and predict how plant species composition and distribution varies across environmental gradients and responds to landscape scale disturbances. This study demonstrates predictive vegetation modeling and mapping for a Northeast Oregon forest using non-parametric Multiplicative Regression (NPMR) with presence/absence data for the species Clintonia uniflora (CLUN) and a set of stand structural and raster-based predictor variables. NPMR is a flexible probability modeling system that can find the best subset of habitat factors influencing species occurrence. NPMR was compared with logistic regression (LR) by building reduced models from variables selected as best by NPMR and full models from variables identified as significant with a forward stepwise process and further manual testing. log β was used to select models with the highest predictive capability. NPMR models were less complex and had higher predictive capability than LR for all modeling approaches. Spatial coordinates were among the most powerful predictors and the modeling approach with physiographic and stand structural variables together was the most improved relative to the average frequency of occurrence. GIS probability maps produced with the application of the physiographic models showed good spatial congruence between high probability values and plots that contained CLUN. NPMR proved to be a reliable probability modeling and mapping tool that could be used as the analytical link between monitoring and quantifying the status and trends of vegetation resources.