Local adaptation,genetic divergence,and experimental selection in a foundation grass across the US Great Plains’ climate gradient

Many prior studies have uncovered evidence for local adaptation using reciprocal transplant experiments. However, these studies are rarely conducted for a long enough time to observe succession and competitive dynamics in a community context, limiting inferences for long‐lived species. Furthermore, the genetic basis of local adaptation and genetic associations with climate has rarely been identified. Here, we report on a long‐term (6‐year) experiment conducted under natural conditions focused on Andropogon gerardii, the dominant grass of the North American Great Plains tallgrass ecosystem. We focus on this foundation grass that comprises 80% of tallgrass prairie biomass and is widely used in 20,000 km² of restoration. Specifically, we asked the following questions: (a) Whether ecotypes are locally adapted to regional climate in realistic ecological communities. (b) Does adaptive genetic variation underpin divergent phenotypes across the climate gradient? (c) Is there evidence of local adaptation if the plants are exposed to competition among ecotypes in mixed ecotype plots? Finally, (d) are local adaptation and genetic divergence related to climate? Reciprocal gardens were planted with 3 regional ecotypes (originating from dry, mesic, wet climate sources) of Andropogon gerardii across a precipitation gradient (500–1,200 mm/year) in the US Great Plains. We demonstrate local adaptation and differentiation of ecotypes in wet and dry environments. Surprisingly, the apparent generalist mesic ecotype performed comparably under all rainfall conditions. Ecotype performance was underpinned by differences in neutral diversity and candidate genes corroborating strong differences among ecotypes. Ecotype differentiation was related to climate, primarily rainfall. Without long‐term studies, wrong conclusions would have been reached based on the first two years. Further, restoring prairies with climate‐matched ecotypes is critical to future ecology, conservation, and sustainability under climate change.     

Effect of growth temperature on photosynthetic capacity and respiration in three ecotypes of Eriophorum vaginatum

Ecotypic differentiation in the tussock‐forming sedge Eriophorum vaginatum has led to the development of populations that are locally adapted to climate in Alaska's moist tussock tundra. As a foundation species, E. vaginatum plays a central role in providing topographic and microclimatic variation essential to these ecosystems, but a changing climate could diminish the importance of this species. As Arctic temperatures have increased, there is evidence of adaptational lag in E. vaginatum, as locally adapted ecotypes now exhibit reduced population growth rates. Whether there is a physiological underpinning to adaptational lag is unknown. Accordingly, this possibility was investigated in reciprocal transplant gardens. Tussocks of E. vaginatum from sites separated by ~1° latitude (Coldfoot: 67°15′N, Toolik Lake: 68°37′, Sagwon: 69°25′) were transplanted into the Toolik Lake and Sagwon sites and exposed to either an ambient or an experimental warming treatment. Five tussocks pertreatment combination were measured at each garden to determine photosynthetic capacity (i.e., V_cmax and J_max) and dark respiration rate (R_d) at measurement temperatures of 15, 20, and 25°C. Photosynthetic enhancements or homeostasis were observed for all ecotypes at both gardens under increased growth temperature, indicating no negative effect of elevated temperature on photosynthetic capacity. Further, no evidence of thermal acclimation in R_d was observed for any ecotype, and there was little evidence of ecotypic variation in R_d. As such, no physiological contribution to adaptational lag was observed given the increase in growth temperature (up to ~2°C) provided by this study. Despite neutral to positive effects of increased growth temperature on photosynthesis in E. vaginatum, it appears to confer no lasting advantage to the species.     

Evidence for concerted movement of nuclear and mitochondrial clines in a lizard hybrid zone

Moving hybrid zones provide compelling examples of evolution in action, yet long‐term studies that test the assumptions of hybrid zone stability are rare. Using replicated transect samples collected over a 10‐year interval from 2002 to 2012, we find evidence for concerted movement of genetic clines in a plateau fence lizard hybrid zone (Sceloporus tristichus) in Arizona. Cline‐fitting analyses of SNP and mtDNA data both provide evidence that the hybrid zone shifted northward by approximately 2 km during the 10‐year interval. For each sampling period, the mtDNA cline centre is displaced from the SNP cline centre and maintaining an introgression distance of approximately 3 km. The northward expansion of juniper trees into the Little Colorado River Basin in the early 1900s provides a plausible mechanism for hybrid zone formation and movement, and a broadscale quantification of recent land cover change provides support for increased woody species encroachment at the southern end of the hybrid zone. However, population processes can also contribute to hybrid zone movement, and the current stability of the ecotone habitats in the centre of the hybrid zone suggests that movement could decelerate in the future.     

An ecological genetic delineation of local seed‐source provenance for ecological restoration

An increasingly important practical application of the analysis of spatial genetic structure within plant species is to help define the extent of local provenance seed collection zones that minimize negative impacts in ecological restoration programs. Here, we derive seed sourcing guidelines from a novel range‐wide assessment of spatial genetic structure of 24 populations of Banksia menziesii (Proteaceae), a widely distributed Western Australian tree of significance in local ecological restoration programs. An analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) of 100 amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers revealed significant genetic differentiation among populations (Φ_PT = 0.18). Pairwise population genetic dissimilarity was correlated with geographic distance, but not environmental distance derived from 15 climate variables, suggesting overall neutrality of these markers with regard to these climate variables. Nevertheless, Bayesian outlier analysis identified four markers potentially under selection, although these were not correlated with the climate variables. We calculated a global R‐statistic using analysis of similarities (ANOSIM) to test the statistical significance of population differentiation and to infer a threshold seed collection zone distance of ~60 km (all markers) and 100 km (outlier markers) when genetic distance was regressed against geographic distance. Population pairs separated by >60 km were, on average, twice as likely to be significantly genetically differentiated than population pairs separated by <60 km, suggesting that habitat‐matched sites within a 30‐km radius around a restoration site genetically defines a local provenance seed collection zone for B. menziesii. Our approach is a novel probability‐based practical solution for the delineation of a local seed collection zone to minimize negative genetic impacts in ecological restoration.     

Plants adapted to warmer climate do not outperform regional plants during a natural heat wave

With ongoing climate change, many plant species may not be able to adapt rapidly enough, and some conservation experts are therefore considering to translocate warm‐adapted ecotypes to mitigate effects of climate warming. Although this strategy, called assisted migration, is intuitively plausible, most of the support comes from models, whereas experimental evidence is so far scarce. Here we present data on multiple ecotypes of six grassland species, which we grew in four common gardens in Germany during a natural heat wave, with temperatures 1.4–2.0°C higher than the long‐term means. In each garden we compared the performance of regional ecotypes with plants from a locality with long‐term summer temperatures similar to what the plants experienced during the summer heat wave. We found no difference in performance between regional and warm‐adapted plants in four of the six species. In two species, regional ecotypes even outperformed warm‐adapted plants, despite elevated temperatures, which suggests that translocating warm‐adapted ecotypes may not only lack the desired effect of increased performance but may even have negative consequences. Even if adaptation to climate plays a role, other factors involved in local adaptation, such as biotic interactions, may override it. Based on our results, we cannot advocate assisted migration as a universal tool to enhance the performance of local plant populations and communities during climate change.     

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide‐ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north

Choosing drought‐tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long‐term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change.     

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment,slowing the pace of population range shifts

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low‐elevation provenance had more than three‐fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high‐elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low‐ and high‐elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long‐term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low‐elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.     

Quantifying the effects of drought on abrupt growth decreases of major tree species in Switzerland

Drought entails important effects on tree physiology, which may result in short‐ to long‐term radial growth decreases. While the majority of studies have focused on annual drought‐related variability of growth, relatively little is known about sustained growth decreases following drought years. We apply a statistical framework to identify climatic factors that induce abrupt growth decreases and may eventually result in tree mortality. We used tree‐ring data from almost 500 standing dead trees and 200 living trees in eight sites of the Swiss network of strict forest reserves, including four of the most important Central European tree species (Abies alba, Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus spp.). First, to assess short‐term growth responses to drought under various climate and site conditions, we calculated correlations and linear mixed‐effects models between ring‐width indices (RWIs) and drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Second, to quantify drought effects on abrupt growth decreases, we applied distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), which account for both delayed effects and the nonlinear relationship between the SPEI and the occurrence of abrupt growth decreases. Positive correlations between RWIs and the SPEI indicated short‐term growth responses of all species, particularly at arid sites. Results of the DLNMs revealed species‐specific growth responses to drought. For Quercus spp., abrupt growth decreases were more likely to occur several years following severe drought, whereas for P. abies, A. alba, and F. sylvatica abrupt growth decreases started frequently immediately in the drought year. We conclude that the statistical framework allows for quantifying the effects of drought intensity on the probability of abrupt growth decreases, which ultimately contributes to an improved understanding of climate impacts on forest community dynamics.     

Local Adaptation and the Effects of Grazing on the Performance of Nassella pulchra: Implications for Seed Sourcing in Restoration

The use of local seed sources for revegetation is accepted practice to reduce the potential that propagules will be poorly adapted to site conditions. However, data are often lacking to determine the distance within which seed sources represent local genotypes. Short‐term reciprocal transplant studies represent a class of tools to detect local adaptation of target species. We conducted a reciprocal transplant of Nassella pulchra between two central California locations to test for adaptation to local environmental conditions over a 3‐year period. Experimental plots at one location were split between grazed and ungrazed sites to evaluate the potential influence of livestock grazing on the detection or magnitude of local adaptation. During each year of the study, evidence of a home‐site advantage depended on the location, traits studied, and population. At the end of the 3‐year study period, however, we detected consistent evidence of a home‐site advantage for seedling biomass among grazed sites at one location and ungrazed plots at the other location. In effect, local adaptation was only apparent in the final year of the study. Short‐term reciprocal transplant studies are an effective tool to guide the selection of seed sources most likely to germinate and to become established at a restoration site, but such studies cannot rule out local adaptation, which may not be immediately detectable.     

The seesaw effect of winter temperature change on the recruitment of cotton bollworms Helicoverpa armigera through mismatched phenology

Knowing how climate change affects the population dynamics of insect pests is critical for the future of integrated pest management. Rising winter temperatures from global warming can drive increases in outbreaks of some agricultural pests. In contrast, here we propose an alternative hypothesis that both extremely cold and warm winters can mismatch the timing between the eclosion of overwintering pests and the flowering of key host plants. As host plants normally need higher effective cumulative temperatures for flowering than insects need for eclosion, changes in flowering time will be less dramatic than changes in eclosion time, leading to a mismatch of phenology on either side of the optimal winter temperature. We term this the “seesaw effect.” Using a long‐term dataset of the Old World cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in northern China, we tested this seesaw hypothesis by running a generalized additive model for the effects of the third generation moth in the preceding year, the winter air temperature, the number of winter days below a critical temperature and cumulative precipitation during winter on the demography of the overwintering moth. Results confirmed the existence of the seesaw effect of winter temperature change on overwintering populations. Pest management should therefore consider the indirect effect of changing crop phenology (whether due to greenhouse cultivation or to climate change) on pest outbreaks. As arthropods from mid‐ and high latitudes are actually living in a cooler thermal environment than their physiological optimum in contrast to species from lower latitudes, the effects of rising winter temperatures on the population dynamics of arthropods in the different latitudinal zones should be considered separately. The seesaw effect makes it more difficult to predict the average long‐term population dynamics of insect pests at high latitudes due to the potential sharp changes in annual growth rates from fluctuating minimum winter temperatures.     

Conservation of old individual trees and small populations is integral to maintain species' genetic diversity of a historically fragmented woody perennial

Historically fragmented and specialized habitats such as granite outcrops are understudied globally unique hot spots of plant evolution. In contrast to predictions based on mainstream population genetic theory, some granite outcrop plants appear to have persisted as very small populations despite prolonged geographic and genetic isolation. Eucalyptus caesia Benth. is a long‐lived lignotuberous tree endemic with a naturally fragmented distribution on granite outcrops in south‐western Australia. To quantify population to landscape‐level genetic structure, we employed microsatellite genotyping at 14 loci of all plants in 18 stands of E. caesia. Sampled stands were characterized by low levels of genetic diversity, small absolute population sizes, localized clonality and strong fine‐scale genetic subdivision. There was no significant relationship between population size and levels of heterozygosity. At the landscape scale, high levels of population genetic differentiation were most pronounced among representatives of the two subspecies in E. caesia as originally circumscribed. Past genetic interconnection was evident between some geographic neighbours separated by up to 20 km. Paradoxically, other pairs of neighbouring stands as little as 7 km apart were genetically distinct. There was no consistent pattern of isolation by distance across the 280 km range of E. caesia. Low levels of gene flow, together with strong drift within stands, provide some explanation of the patterns of genetic differentiation we observed. Individual genet longevity via the ability to repeatedly resprout and expand from a lignotuber may enhance the persistence of some woody perennial endemic plants despite small population size, minimal genetic interconnection and low heterozygosity.     

Impacts of climate warming and habitat loss on extinctions at species' low-latitude range boundaries

Polewards expansions of species' distributions have been attributed to climate warming, but evidence for climate‐driven local extinctions at warm (low latitude/elevation) boundaries is equivocal. We surveyed the four species of butterflies that reach their southern limits in Britain. We visited 421 sites where the species had been recorded previously to determine whether recent extinctions were primarily due to climate or habitat changes. Coenonympha tullia had become extinct at 52% of study sites and all losses were associated with habitat degradation. Aricia artaxerxes was extinct from 50% of sites, with approximately one‐third to half of extinctions associated with climate‐related factors and the remainder with habitat loss. For Erebia aethiops (extinct from 24% of sites), approximately a quarter of the extinctions were associated with habitat and three‐quarters with climate. For Erebia epiphron, extinctions (37% of sites) were attributed mainly to climate with almost no habitat effects. For the three species affected by climate, range boundaries retracted 70–100 km northwards (A. artaxerxes, E. aethiops) and 130–150 m uphill (E. epiphron) in the sample of sites analysed. These shifts are consistent with estimated latitudinal and elevational temperature shifts of 88 km northwards and 98 m uphill over the 19‐year study period. These results suggest that the southern/warm range margins of some species are as sensitive to climate change as are northern/cool margins. Our data indicate that climate warming has been of comparable importance to habitat loss in driving local extinctions of northern species over the past few decades; future climate warming is likely to jeopardize the long‐term survival of many northern and mountain species.     

Good‐bye to tropical alpine plant giants under warmer climates? Loss of range and genetic diversity in Lobelia rhynchopetalum

The main aim of this paper is to address consequences of climate warming on loss of habitat and genetic diversity in the enigmatic tropical alpine giant rosette plants using the Ethiopian endemic Lobelia rhynchopetalum as a model. We modeled the habitat suitability of L. rhynchopetalum and assessed how its range is affected under two climate models and four emission scenarios. We used three statistical algorithms calibrated to represent two different complexity levels of the response. We analyzed genetic diversity using amplified fragment length polymorphisms and assessed the impact of the projected range loss. Under all model and scenario combinations and consistent across algorithms and complexity levels, this afro‐alpine flagship species faces massive range reduction. Only 3.4% of its habitat seems to remain suitable on average by 2,080, resulting in loss of 82% (CI 75%–87%) of its genetic diversity. The remaining suitable habitat is projected to be fragmented among and reduced to four mountain peaks, further deteriorating the probability of long‐term sustainability of viable populations. Because of the similar morphological and physiological traits developed through convergent evolution by tropical alpine giant rosette plants in response to diurnal freeze‐thaw cycles, they most likely respond to climate change in a similar way as our study species. We conclude that specialized high‐alpine giant rosette plants, such as L. rhynchopetalum, are likely to face very high risk of extinction following climate warming.     

Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx

The classic 10‐year population cycle of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus, Erxleben 1777) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis, Kerr 1792) in the boreal forests of North America has drawn much attention from both population and community ecologists worldwide; however, the ecological mechanisms driving the 10‐year cyclic dynamic pattern are not fully revealed yet. In this study, by the use of historic fur harvest data, we constructed a series of generalized additive models to study the effects of density dependence, predation, and climate (both global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and northern hemispheric temperature (NHT) and local weather data including temperature, rainfall, and snow). We identified several key pathways from global and local climate to lynx with various time lags: rainfall shows a negative, and snow shows a positive effect on lynx; NHT and NAO negatively affect lynx through their positive effect on rainfall and negative effect on snow; SOI positively affects lynx through its negative effect on rainfall. Direct or delayed density dependency effects, the prey effect of hare on lynx and a 2‐year delayed negative effect of lynx on hare (defined as asymmetric predation) were found. The simulated population dynamics is well fitted to the observed long‐term fluctuations of hare and lynx populations. Through simulation, we find density dependency and asymmetric predation, only producing damped oscillation, are necessary but not sufficient factors in causing the observed 10‐year cycles; while extrinsic climate factors are important in producing and modifying the sustained cycles. Two recent population declines of lynx (1940–1955 and after 1980) were likely caused by ongoing climate warming indirectly. Our results provide an alternative explanation to the mechanism of the 10‐year cycles, and there is a need for further investigation on links between disappearance of population cycles and global warming in hare–lynx system.     

Ecological change predicts population dynamics and genetic diversity over 120 000 years

While ecological effects on short‐term population dynamics are well understood, their effects over millennia are difficult to demonstrate and convincing evidence is scant. Using coalescent methods, we analysed past population dynamics of three lizard species (Psammodromus hispanicus, P. edwardsianus, P. occidentalis) and linked the results with climate change data covering the same temporal horizon (120 000 years). An increase in population size over time was observed in two species, and in P. occidentalis, no change was observed. Temporal changes in temperature seasonality and the maximum temperature of the warmest month were congruent with changes in population dynamics observed for the three species and both variables affected population density, either directly or indirectly (via a life‐history trait). These results constitute the first solid link between ecological change and long‐term population dynamics. The results moreover suggest that ecological change leaves genetic signatures that can be retrospectively traced, providing evidence that ecological change is a crucial driver of genetic diversity and speciation.     

Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth

Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species’ life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross‐validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long‐term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO₂ concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long‐term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.     

When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change

Globally, long‐term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long‐term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002–2014) of citizen science‐driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75–0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human‐modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high‐quality forest patches is essential for long‐term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long‐term citizen science monitoring data unfolds the complex relationships between the environmental dynamics and range fluctuations of this food nomadic species.     

Using genetic variation to infer associations with climate in the common frog,Rana temporaria

Recent and historical species' associations with climate can be inferred using molecular markers. This knowledge of population and species‐level responses to climatic variables can then be used to predict the potential consequences of ongoing climate change. The aim of this study was to predict responses of Rana temporaria to environmental change in Scotland by inferring historical and contemporary patterns of gene flow in relation to current variation in local thermal conditions. We first inferred colonization patterns within Europe following the last glacial maximum by combining new and previously published mitochondrial DNA sequences. We found that sequences from our Scottish samples were identical to (92%), or clustered with, the common haplotype previously identified from Western Europe. This clade showed very low mitochondrial variation, which did not allow inference of historical colonization routes but did allow interpretation of patterns of current fine‐scale population structure without consideration of confounding historical variation. Second, we assessed fine‐scale microsatellite‐based patterns of genetic variation in relation to current altitudinal temperature gradients. No population structure was found within altitudinal gradients (average F_ST = 0.02), despite a mean annual temperature difference of 4.5 °C between low‐ and high‐altitude sites. Levels of genetic diversity were considerable and did not vary between sites. The panmictic population structure observed, even along temperature gradients, is a potentially positive sign for R. temporaria persistence in Scotland in the face of a changing climate. This study demonstrates that within taxonomic groups, thought to be at high risk from environmental change, levels of vulnerability can vary, even within species.     

Height differences in two eucalypt provenances with contrasting levels of aridity

Huge investments are fed into repairing the world's degraded land, placing unparalleled pressure on delivering large quantities of quality seed. One of the most pressing issues is to identify which region to collect seed from and specifically whether local seed has a home‐site advantage, particularly given the pressures of climate change. Recent theoretical recommendations have supported supplementing local seed with seed transferred in an arid‐to‐mesic direction to improve climate resilience of plantings. We tested this recommendation by establishing a reciprocal transplant trial in June 2010 of two seed provenances with contrasting aridity of Eucalyptus socialis, a tree widely used for restoration in Southern Australia. We recorded survival and height over 5 years. The years 2010 and 2011 were particularly wet years at both sites (>1.8 times historical rainfall), but the years 2012–2015 were consistent with long‐term rainfall trends, with the arid site receiving 12–48% less annual rainfall than the mesic site. Only the arid provenance showed a home‐site advantage, and only for height after the two wet years followed by the three drier years. Provenances had similar levels of survival at both sites and did equally well at the mesic site. These results only provide initial evidence to support the recommendation that restoration plantings aiming to incorporate climate resilience should include arid‐to‐mesic transferred seed. Further work is needed to fully explore potential confounding site‐specific effects. Supplementing locally collected seeds with arid‐to‐mesic transferred seed could be important to increase climate resilience of plantings and demands further studies to explore its costs versus benefits.     

Adaptation,ancestral variation and gene flow in a ‘Sky Island’ Drosophila species

Over time, populations of species can expand, contract, fragment and become isolated, creating subpopulations that must adapt to local conditions. Understanding how species maintain variation after divergence as well as adapt to these changes in the face of gene flow is of great interest, especially as the current climate crisis has caused range shifts and frequent migrations for many species. Here, we characterize how a mycophageous fly species, Drosophila innubila, came to inhabit and adapt to its current range which includes mountain forests in south‐western USA separated by large expanses of desert. Using population genomic data from more than 300 wild‐caught individuals, we examine four populations to determine their population history in these mountain forests, looking for signatures of local adaptation. In this first extensive study, establishing D. innubila as a key genomic "Sky Island" model, we find D. innubila spread northwards during the previous glaciation period (30–100 KYA) and have recently expanded even further (0.2–2 KYA). D. innubila shows little evidence of population structure, consistent with a recent establishment and genetic variation maintained since before geographic stratification. We also find some signatures of recent selective sweeps in chorion proteins and population differentiation in antifungal immune genes suggesting differences in the environments to which flies are adapting. However, we find little support for long‐term recurrent selection in these genes. In contrast, we find evidence of long‐term recurrent positive selection in immune pathways such as the Toll signalling system and the Toll‐regulated antimicrobial peptides.