黑龙江省东完达山地区东北虎猎物种群现状及动态趋势

猎物种群丰度是限制虎分布和数量的关键因子,因此猎物种群密度监测和估算是虎保护的重要内容之一。应用采用大样方法,地理信息系统技术和多元统计分析,研究了黑龙江东完达山东部地区东北虎猎物种群(马鹿、狍子和野猪)现状及动态变化趋势。结果表明:研究地区马鹿的种群平均密度为(0.2010±0.0270)只/km²、狍子的平均种群密度为(0.4980±0.0436)只/km²、野猪的平均种群密度为(0.3423±0.0275)只/km²。单因素方差分析表明,在相同生境下,3种有蹄类密度在在阔叶混交林中和杂木林中差异极为显著;不同的生境,3种猎物的猎物的密度也存在着显著差异。相关分析表明马鹿密度和野猪密度程正相关,而马鹿密度和狍子密度、狍子密度和野猪密度则不相关。 同1989年该地区东北虎猎物种群相比:1989-2002年的13 a时间内马鹿的年平均递减率为13.48%、狍子的年平均递减率为12.69%、野猪的年平均递减率为1.89%。     

黑龙江省完达山东部林区东北虎猎物生物量

研究一个地区猎物种群生物量能否满足捕食动物种群数量的需求,这对于了解濒危大型食肉动物是否受到来自于食物缺乏的威胁和制定相应的保护措施极其重要。为了掌握黑龙江省完达山东部林区东北虎食物需求与猎物生物量之间的关系,于2008年冬季至2009早春积雪覆盖期采用随机布设样线,通过收集有蹄类动物在雪地上留下的足迹等活动的方法,在东方红林业局和迎春林业局管辖境内3 692.06 km²的区域布设大样方48个,并在大样方里共布设样线240条开展有蹄类动物种群数量调查,确定东北虎猎物生物量。调查结果表明:研究地区野猪(成体502 606只,亚成体209 210只)、马鹿(成体331 357只,亚成体67 72只)和狍子(成体810 815只,亚成体202 203只)的生物量分别为74 767.50 87 825.00 kg、79 744.50 85 984.50 kg 和 31 337.00 31 525.50 kg,3种有蹄类动物生物量共计1 85 849.00 205 335.00 kg。研究地区猎物总生物量为209 619.89 231 598.24 kg。如果按8%的生物提供给东北虎,3种主要猎物生物量可满足5.22 6.92只东北虎个体的食物需求,研究地区猎物总生物量则可满足5.89 7.81只东北虎个体的食物需求。此外,对足迹遇见率与抽样强度、抽样强度与足迹遇见率的均值标准误差之间关系的分析表明,在完达山东部林区布设120条样线(抽样距离600 km)、150条样线(抽样距离750 km)和115条样线(抽样距离675 km)能满足野猪、马鹿、狍子种群数量调查准确性的最低需求。     

完达山东部地区东北虎主要猎物种群的时空动态模拟

基于能体现直接与间接人为干扰的不同意外死亡率和环境容纳量情景,使用景观尺度的动物种群模型（LAPS）模拟了1990—2009年完达山东部地区东北虎主要猎物种群的时空动态,研究了意外死亡率和环境容纳量对种群动态的影响,并直观展现了研究区内动物集群的时空分布状况,比较了不同生境斑块类型中个体密度的差异.结果表明：意外死亡率对研究区动物种群动态的影响较环境容纳量大;灌丛中动物种群的密度高于阔叶林中的密度.研究结果为有效进行东北虎主要猎物的保护与管理提供了科学依据,但相关的定量验证还需深入研究.     

中国野生东北虎数量监测方法有效性评估

虎数量监测是虎保护的核心内容之一。野生虎现存数量少、领域宽广,加之习性机警,很难对其数量和种群变化趋势做出准确的评估。合适的虎数量监测方法随着监测目标、监测尺度、虎密度、猎物密度、气候及其它环境因素的变化而不同。2002—2011年,用东北虎信息收集网络法,样线调查法,猎物生物量和捕食者关系法,对东北虎数量进行监测。(1)用老虎信息收集网络法研究2006年完达山东部地区东北虎的种群现状,结果显示东完达山地区2006年东北虎数量为6—9只,由1只成年雄虎,2—3只成年雌虎,2—4只亚成体虎和1只小于1岁的幼体虎组成;(2)用猎物生物量和捕食者关系法得到东完达山地区2002年东北虎的密度为0.356只/100 km2,能容纳22—27只东北虎;(3)用样线法在黑龙江的老爷岭南部和吉林省大龙岭北部面积1735.99 km2的区域内设置样线64条,总长609 km,没有发现东北虎足迹链。样线调查的结果表明,在2011年2—3月该调查区域东北虎的数量为0只。监测结果表明,用猎物生物量和捕食者关系得到东北虎数量远远超过现实数量,人们对有蹄类的盗猎和猎套对老虎的伤害可能是其主要原因;样线法调查得出的结果低于现实种群,主要原因是老虎数量极低和调查者对野生虎行为学了解甚少,较难在野外有效的发现虎信息;且样线法监测仅应用于当东北虎以一定的密度(即有定居虎)存在的情况下(多数监测样线能发现虎信息)。虽然和样线法一样存在着诸如专家估计密度和真实密度之间的关系,老虎足迹数量和老虎真实密度间关系不确定,保守估计等内在缺点,在目前中国东北地区野生东北虎种群密度极低,且多是穿越于中俄边境地区的游荡个体的现状下,信息收集网络法是一种高效,可行东北虎监测方法。因此,建议建立更广泛的监测信息收集网络,培训监测人员,严格执行信息收集程序,减少专家估计误差以完善此监测方法。此外,其他监测方法,如占有法、基于标志重捕远红外照相法、粪便DNA法、足迹数码信息法、警犬法等,应根据各种方法的理论前提、误差来源、适用范围和老虎是否定居及密度等具体情况有选择地加以应用,且有些方法可能成为未来中国野生东北虎种群的有效监测工具。     

东北虎种群的时空动态及其原因分析

作者通过对广泛的历史资料的综合分析, 研究了东北虎(Panthera tigris altaica)种群在近一个多世纪以来的时空动态及其原因, 并从景观生态学和可持续性科学的角度对东北虎的保护提出了建议。东北虎是俄罗斯远东、中国东北、蒙古东部以及朝鲜的关键种。近百年以来的多种人为干扰因素使该种群从一个世纪前的近3,000只的历史最高纪录减少到目前约500只的低水平。现存种群主要分布在俄罗斯远东地区Sikhote山脉的一个大生境区域和两个靠近中俄边境孤立的小生境斑块, 少数个体零星分布在中国境内几个小而孤立的生境斑块中。威胁东北虎种群生存的两个最主要因素是捕猎、生境丧失和破碎化。此外, 食物匮乏、战争等因素也对东北虎的生存和繁衍有一定程度的影响。我们建议建立长期监测平台; 禁止盗猎并限制在东北虎潜在栖息地采伐、狩猎以及修筑道路等人类活动; 建立相互连通的保护区域, 特别是建立中国与俄罗斯间跨国界的生态廊道。这些保护措施应该以景观生态学和可持续性科学为指导, 实现空间资源的合理配置和土地利用格局的优化, 同时考虑东北虎种群的生存和当地经济、社会发展的需求, 从而促进实现区域可持续发展的最终目标。     

张广才岭南部东北虎猎物种群冬季营养容纳量研究

猎物匮乏是影响东北虎（Panthera tigris altaica）种群恢复的关键因素之一。容纳量研究是开展东北虎猎物恢复工作的必要前提。通过Maxent模型、聚类分析和训练随机树分类等方法,结合调查数据,预测了吉林省张广才岭南部黄泥河林业局东北虎主要猎物的适宜栖息地空间分布,解译了植被类型,在此基础上基于不同植被类型动物可采食部分代谢能、不同生境等级食物可利用率、马鹿（Cervus elaphus）和狍（Capreolus capreolus）生境等级重叠情况以及动物冬季能量需求,分析了东北虎猎物的冬季营养容纳量。结果表明：黄泥河林业局狍、野猪（Sus scrofa）和马鹿的适宜栖息地分别占研究区域总面积的52.8%、40.7%和25.4%;从猎物获取能量来看,以山杨（Populus davidiana）、桦树（Betula）、核桃楸（Juglans mandshurica）为主的植被类型是马鹿、狍可获得能量较多的生境,以蒙古栎（Quercus mongolica）、核桃楸为主的植被类型是野猪可获得能量较多的生境。东北虎猎物种群的综合冬季营养容纳量为574只马鹿（0.29只/km²）,7016只狍（3.54只/km²）,4785只野猪（2.38只/km²）。     

黑龙江省完达山东部林区马鹿冬季环境容纳量估算

2005 年和2006 年冬季,在黑龙江省完达山东部林区采用分层抽样技术,测定马鹿生境中主要食物的生物量供给量。通过食物营养成分分析,确定野外生境食物营养供给量。经饲喂实验,测定圈养马鹿冬季的日营养需求。结合研究地区马鹿生境食物资源类型,以干物质、代谢能和氮为基础估算了完达山东部林区野生马鹿的营养容纳量。研究结果表明:以干物质为估算基础,完达山东部林区冬季马鹿容纳量为11 115 ± 1 419头,以代谢能为基础估算值为5 845 ± 1 077头,而基于氮的计算结果为16 958 ± 2 983头;显示该地区马鹿主要食物含氮量超出马鹿日平均需求量,而代谢能供给量则略显不足,成为种群增长的主要限制因子,所以本文以代谢能为基础估算的容纳量作为该地区冬季马鹿种群环境容纳量。此外,由于受雪被厚度、食物生物量、光照等环境因子的影响,两年估算的容纳量数值存在一定差异。      

中国虎的概况

虎是世界上最大的猫科动物。曾广泛分布在亚洲13个国家。但由于栖息地的丧失、猎物数量减少以及人类的捕杀,其野生种群已经从一个世纪前的超过10万只锐减到目前的3000～5000只。中国境内分布着4个野生亚种,对于世界范围的老虎保护有着重要作用。建立连接破碎化栖息地的生物走廊带、杜绝由于虎制品贸易消费而造成的疯狂盗猎、有效地保护好老虎残存的自然栖息地及其中的有蹄类猎物种群是维持老虎野外种群持续生存的关键。     

黑龙江省完达山地区马鹿生境破碎化及其影响因子

应用景观生态学原理和地理信息系统技术,分析黑龙江省完达山地区马鹿生境相关因子重要性、对景观连接度进行模糊相对赋值,建立了景观连接度评价模型及景观斑块指数,研究了黑龙江省完达山地区关于马鹿生境的景观连接度水平、生境的适宜性以及景观的空间结构。结果表明:(1)在155.6km2的面积中,适宜地区的总面积仅为14.81km2,占研究地区的9.52%;次适宜地区的总面积为9.57km2,占研究地区的6.15%;一般适宜地区的总面积为130.05km2,占研究地区的83.58%;不适宜地区的总面积为1.17km2,占研究地区的0.75%;(2)研究地区马鹿各类适宜地区呈多个斑块且相互隔离,在空间分布上处于破碎状态,而且不适宜地区斑块(人为活动景观)的面积比例虽小,在生态系统中形态上的破碎化程度较小,但对马鹿的生境的生态功能的丧失起到重要作用。     

完达山东部林区野猪种群数量和栖息地特征的初步分析

2008 年11 月18 日至2009 年3 月20 日,为了调查黑龙江省完达山东部林区野猪种群数量和栖息地特征,我们采用随机布设样线的方法在东方红林业局境内13 个林场共布设大样方40 个,样线200 条。调查结果表明,东方红林业局境内野猪分布平均密度为0.175 头/ km² , 种群数量为546 ～ 680 头;野猪主要分布在河口、奇源、青山、五林洞、独木河、海音山和东林7 个林场,位于海拔300 ～ 800 m 的范围内。1989 年调查的野猪平均密度为0.372 头/ km² ,种群数量为1302 ; 2002 年调查的野猪平均密度为0. 342 头/ km² , 种群数量为1 198 头。近年来野猪种群密度降低,种群数量呈加速下降趋势。对野猪栖息地特征分析表明,野猪喜欢选择中坡位、阳坡、坡度小于5°、地表植被盖度大于30% 、隐蔽度和郁闭度在25% ～ 50% 之间的生境。阔叶林、灌丛是野猪的主要栖息地。非法捕猎、森林采伐、坚果采摘和东北虎的捕食是造成野猪种群数量减少、栖息地质量下降的主要因素。     

Bacterial predator–prey dynamics in microscale patchy landscapes

Soil is a microenvironment with a fragmented (patchy) spatial structure in which many bacterial species interact. Here, we explore the interaction between the predatory bacterium Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus and its prey Escherichia coli in microfabricated landscapes. We ask how fragmentation influences the prey dynamics at the microscale and compare two landscape geometries: a patchy landscape and a continuous landscape. By following the dynamics of prey populations with high spatial and temporal resolution for many generations, we found that the variation in predation rates was twice as large in the patchy landscape and the dynamics was correlated over shorter length scales. We also found that while the prey population in the continuous landscape was almost entirely driven to extinction, a significant part of the prey population in the fragmented landscape persisted over time. We observed significant surface-associated growth, especially in the fragmented landscape and we surmise that this sub-population is more resistant to predation. Our results thus show that microscale fragmentation can significantly influence bacterial interactions.     

景观破碎化对植物种群的影响

景观破碎化是目前存在的一种普遍现象,是由于人为因素或其它非人为因素的干扰所导致的景观破碎分离并由简单趋向复杂的过程。它直接或间接影响着景观的结构、功能及其动态。本文首先简要介绍景观破碎化的成因和不同研究角度与水平上景观破碎化影响的表现;然后着重分析景观破碎化对植物种群的大小和灭绝速率、扩散和迁入、遗传和变异以及存活力等的影响;同时归纳现阶段研究景观破碎化对植物种群影响的主要方法和模型;最后提出目前景观破碎化对植物种群影响研究中存在的三个主要问题：缺乏原始的资料、成熟的模型和破碎化与其他因素,如污染、气候变化等,交互作用的识别。     

The Effect of Habitat Fragmentation on Cyclic Population Dynamics: A Numerical Study

Through four spatially explicit models, we investigate how habitat fragmentation affects cyclic predator–prey population dynamics. We use a Partial Differential Equation (PDE) framework to describe the dispersal of predators and prey in a heterogeneous landscape made of high quality and low quality habitat patches, subject to increasing fragmentation through habitat separation and/or habitat loss. Our results show that habitat fragmentation decreases the amplitude of the predator–prey population cycles while average population density is not as strongly affected in general. Beyond these simple trends however, the four models show differing responses to fragmentation, indicating that when making predictions about population survival and persistence in the face of habitat fragmentation, the choice of model is important. Our results may inform conservation efforts in fragmented habitats for cyclic species such as the snowshoe hare and Canada lynx. Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.     

Potential impacts of climate and landscape fragmentation changes on plant distributions: Coupling multi-temporal satellite imagery with GIS-based cellular automata model

Climate change and landscape fragmentation are considered to be the main treats to biodiversity. In this study, probable alteration of future species distribution was tested based on the association of landscape fragmentation and climate change scenarios compared to the classical approach that assumed an unchanged landscape. Also, projected range shifts including realistic dispersal scenarios were compared with classical models, in which no or full dispersal has been supposed.A GIS-based cellular automata model, MigClim, was implemented to projection of future distribution over the 21st century for three plant species in a study area of the central Germany. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (full dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal, and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events), two landscape fragmentation (static and dynamic change) and two climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. In this research, temporal satellite data were utilized to simulate landscape changes by the use of a hybrid (CA-Markov) model for the years 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2080.A significant difference appears to be between the simulations of realistic dispersal limitations and those considering full or no dispersal for projected future distributions. Although simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our study area, results that were closer to no dispersal than to full dispersal. Additionally, our results revealed that change in landscape fragmentation is more effective than the climate change impacts on species distributions in this study.     

Effects of landscape and patch-level attributes on regional population persistence

Species responses are influenced by processes operating at multiple scales, yet many conservation studies and management actions are focused on a single scale. Although landscape-level habitat conditions (i.e., habitat amount, fragmentation and landscape quality) are likely to drive the regional persistence of spatially structured populations, patch-level factors (i.e., patch size, isolation, and quality) may also be important. To determine the spatial scales at which habitat factors influence the regional persistence of endangered Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii) in Alberta, Canada, we simulated population dynamics under a range of habitat conditions. Using a spatially-explicit population model, we removed groups of habitat patches based on their characteristics and measured the resulting time to extinction. We used proportional hazards models to rank the influence of landscape and interacting patch-level variables. Landscape quality was the most influential variable followed by patch quality, with both outweighing landscape- and patch-level measures of habitat quantity and fragmentation/proximity. Although habitat conservation and restoration priorities for this population should be in maximizing the overall quality of the landscape, population persistence depends on how this goal is achieved. Patch quality exerted a significant influence on regional persistence, with the removal of low quality road margin patches (sinks) reducing the risk of regional extinction. Strategies for maximizing overall landscape quality that omit patch-level considerations may produce suboptimal or detrimental results for regional population persistence, particularly where complex local population dynamics (e.g., source-sink dynamics) exist. This study contributes to a growing body literature that suggests that the prediction of species responses and future conservation actions may best be assessed with a multi-scale approach that considers habitat quality and that the success of conservation actions may depend on assessing the influences of habitat factors at multiple scales.     

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long‐term demographic study on tawny owls

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent‐scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole‐eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27‐year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high‐ to a low‐amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid‐1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First‐year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole‐eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe.     

The impact of soybean expansion on mammal and bird,in the Balsas region,north Brasilian Cerrado

In order to analyse the impact of land use change, it is particularly important to know how organisms use resources distributed across a heterogeneous landscape. The main objective of this study is to analyse the potential impact of land use change on bird and mammal fauna, by using a coupled model approach. The CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model has been applied to obtain the spatial pattern of land use change for a scenario with soybean expansion in the Cerrado of Maranhão State in Brazil. These land use change maps were used as the input for the LEDESS (Landscape Ecological Decision and Evaluation Support System) model to evaluate the impact of habitat fragmentation on mammal and bird species. The scenarios demonstrated that high quality habitat for all studied species will be lost in the future when current trends in agricultural expansion continue, but these changes will have species-specific impacts. The most relevant ecological impact under the explored scenarios was habitat fragmentation expressed by the increase the number of habitat clusters. The coupled model approach of LEDESS and CLUE made it possible to project the spatial impact of soybean expansion on habitat dynamics in the studied region. This model approach can help to design effective ecological infrastructure to facilitate species survival and to implement an effective habitat network in the Balsas region.     

不同农业景观结构对麦蚜种群动态的影响

研究表明农业景观结构的复杂性与害虫种群发生强度关系密切,然而在不同农业景观结构下研究麦蚜的发生、种群及寄生蜂的变化还不多。设计了不同的麦田景观结构,调查研究了不同麦田景观结构对麦蚜种群的影响。在简单与复杂两种农业景观结构下,分析了不同种类麦蚜的入田时间、入田量、种群增长率、种群密度及寄生性天敌的多样性与寄生率。结果表明:景观结构对不同种类麦蚜影响不同,但复杂农业景观下麦蚜迁飞入田时间都要晚于简单农业景观(连片种植)下的入田时间,复杂农业景观下有翅蚜的迁入量显著低于简单景观下有翅蚜的迁入量,并且复杂农业景观下麦蚜种群增长速率高于简单农业景观下的增长速率。不同种类麦蚜对景观结构的不同反应可能与形态学与生活史特征有关,两种不同农业景观结构下寄生性天敌的多样性与寄生率无显著差异。复杂景观结构下的麦蚜有翅蚜低的迁入量、高的增长速率可能与生境高度破碎化有关,其中与温室大棚塑料白色反光有的很大的影响。生境破碎化影响了麦蚜对寄主植物寻找以及天敌对猎物的寻找效应。     

Consequences of landscape fragmentation on Lyme disease risk: a cellular automata approach

The abundance of infected Ixodid ticks is an important component of human risk of Lyme disease, and various empirical studies have shown that this is associated, at least in part, to landscape fragmentation. In this study, we aimed at exploring how varying woodland fragmentation patterns affect the risk of Lyme disease, through infected tick abundance. A cellular automata model was developed, incorporating a heterogeneous landscape with three interactive components: an age-structured tick population, a classical disease transmission function, and hosts. A set of simplifying assumptions were adopted with respect to the study objective and field data limitations. In the model, the landscape influences both tick survival and host movement. The validation of the model was performed with an empirical study. Scenarios of various landscape configurations (focusing on woodland fragmentation) were simulated and compared. Lyme disease risk indices (density and infection prevalence of nymphs) differed considerably between scenarios: (i) the risk could be higher in highly fragmented woodlands, which is supported by a number of recently published empirical studies, and (ii) grassland could reduce the risk in adjacent woodland, which suggests landscape fragmentation studies of zoonotic diseases should not focus on the patch-level woodland patterns only, but also on landscape-level adjacent land cover patterns. Further analysis of the simulation results indicated strong correlations between Lyme disease risk indices and the density, shape and aggregation level of woodland patches. These findings highlight the strong effect of the spatial patterns of local host population and movement on the spatial dynamics of Lyme disease risks, which can be shaped by woodland fragmentation. In conclusion, using a cellular automata approach is beneficial for modelling complex zoonotic transmission systems as it can be combined with either real world landscapes for exploring direct spatial effects or artificial representations for outlining possible empirical investigations.