Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations

North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river‐specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate‐driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations.     

Changes in scale circulus spacings of an endangered Atlantic salmon Salmo salar population: evidence of a shift in marine migration?

Post‐smolt scale circulus spacing patterns for two Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations from the Southern Upland (SU) of Nova Scotia, Canada, were compared with spacings from two endangered populations from the inner Bay of Fundy (iBoF) Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, to determine if growth patterns differed among these populations, and if growth patterns had changed as the abundance of these populations declined. An analysis of numbers of marine circuli from scales of post‐smolts and one‐sea‐winter adults of known age indicated that circuli were deposited at a rate of about one circulus per week in summer and slowed to one every 2 weeks in winter. During the summer and the autumn, mean circulus spacing in the iBoF populations, known to have occupied the outer Bay of Fundy during these seasons, was lower than in the SU populations, which are known to migrate to the North Atlantic. Similar circulus spacing patterns within SU populations is suggestive of a common marine distribution for these populations. In contrast, a cluster analysis revealed that within the geographically intermediate Big Salmon River (iBoF), some individuals exhibited wider spacing patterns that resemble the distant migrating SU populations, while others exhibited narrower spacing similar to other iBoF S. salar. Within the Big Salmon River, the relative abundance of the wider and the narrower spacing patterns varied in the earlier years, but all fish sampled since 1999, exhibited wider spacings similar to distant migrating SU S. salar. The apparent disappearance of the narrower pattern, characteristic of localized migration and indicative of historical iBoF populations, suggests that local migration may not presently be a successful strategy for these populations.     

Association between environmental factors, smolt size and the survival of wild and reared Atlantic salmon from the Simojoki River in the Baltic Sea

The survival of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in the Baltic Sea was examined in relation to smolt traits (length and origin) and annual environmental factors [sea surface temperature (SST) and seasonal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index], and prey fish abundance (herring Clupea harengus and sprat Sprattus sprattus) in the main basin and the southern Gulf of Bothnia. The study was based on recapture data for Carlin‐tagged hatchery‐reared and wild smolts from the Simojoki, a river flowing into the northern Gulf of Bothnia. The survival of the wild and reared groups was analysed using an ANOVA model and a stepwise regression model, with the arcsin‐transformed proportion of recaptured fish as the response variable. The results demonstrated a combined influence of smolt traits and environmental factors on survival. For the reared Atlantic salmon released in 1986–1998 (28 groups), the increasing annual mean SST in July in the southern Gulf of Bothnia and increasing mean smolt size improved survival. If the SST in July was excluded from the model, the NAO index in May to July also had a positive effect on survival (P < 0·10). The log₁₀‐transformed abundance of 0+ year herring in the southern Gulf of Bothnia entered the model (P < 0·15) if the SST and NAO index were excluded. For the wild Atlantic salmon released in 1972–1993 (21 groups), only the increasing SST in July showed a significant association with improved survival (P = 0·004). Prey fish abundance in the main basin of the Baltic Sea had no influence on the survival of reared or wild smolt groups. The interaction between smolt size and the SST in July was not significant. The origin was a better, but not a significant, predictor of marine survival compared to the smolt size or the SST in July. The mean recapture rate of the wild groups was twice that of the reared groups in the whole data. The results suggest that cold summers in the Gulf of Bothnia reduce the survival of young Atlantic salmon in both wild and reared groups. The larger smolt size of the reared groups compared with the wild groups to some extent compensated for their lower ability to live in the wild.     

A global assessment of salmon aquaculture impacts on wild salmonids

Since the late 1980s, wild salmon catch and abundance have declined dramatically in the North Atlantic and in much of the northeastern Pacific south of Alaska. In these areas, there has been a concomitant increase in the production of farmed salmon. Previous studies have shown negative impacts on wild salmonids, but these results have been difficult to translate into predictions of change in wild population survival and abundance. We compared marine survival of salmonids in areas with salmon farming to adjacent areas without farms in Scotland, Ireland, Atlantic Canada, and Pacific Canada to estimate changes in marine survival concurrent with the growth of salmon aquaculture. Through a meta-analysis of existing data, we show a reduction in survival or abundance of Atlantic salmon; sea trout; and pink, chum, and coho salmon in association with increased production of farmed salmon. In many cases, these reductions in survival or abundance are greater than 50%. Meta-analytic estimates of the mean effect are significant and negative, suggesting that salmon farming has reduced survival of wild salmon and trout in many populations and countries.     

Detrimental effects of recent ocean surface warming on growth condition of Atlantic salmon

Ocean climate impacts on survivorship and growth of Atlantic salmon are complex, but still poorly understood. Stock abundances have declined over the past three decades and 1992–2006 has seen widespread sea surface temperature (SST) warming of the NE Atlantic, including the foraging areas exploited by salmon of southern European origin. Salmon cease feeding on return migration, and here we express the final growth condition of year‐classes of one‐sea winter adults at, or just before, freshwater re‐entry as the predicted weight at standard length. Two independent 14‐year time series for a single river stock and for mixed, multiple stocks revealed almost identical temporal patterns in growth condition variation, and an overall trend decrease of 11–14% over the past decade. Growth condition has fallen as SST anomaly has risen, and for each year‐class the midwinter (January) SST anomalies they experienced at sea correlated negatively with their final condition on migratory return during the subsequent summer months. Stored lipids are crucial for survival and for the prespawning provisioning of eggs in freshwater, and we show that under‐weight individuals have disproportionately low reserves. The poorest condition fish (～30% under‐weight) returned with lipid stores reduced by ～80%. This study concurs with previous analyses of other North Atlantic top consumers (e.g. somatic condition of tuna, reproductive failure of seabirds) showing evidence of major, recent climate‐driven changes in the eastern North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem, and the likely importance of bottom‐up control processes. Because salmon abundances presently remain at historical lows, fecundity of recent year‐classes will have been increasingly compromised. Measures of year‐class growth condition should therefore be incorporated in the analysis and setting of numerical spawning escapements for threatened stocks, and conservation limits should be revised upwards conservatively during periods of excessive ocean climate warming.     

Juvenile salmonid populations in a temperate river system track synoptic trends in climate

Widespread declines among Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) over recent decades have been linked to pollution, exploitation and catchment modification, but climate change is increasingly implicated. We used long‐term, geographically extensive data from the Welsh River Wye, formerly a major salmon river, to examine whether climatically mediated effects on juveniles (>0+) might contribute to population change. Populations of Atlantic salmon and brown trout fell across the Wye catchment, respectively, by 50% and 67% between 1985 and 2004, but could not be explained by pollution because water quality improved during this time. Stream temperatures, estimated from calibrations against weekly air temperature at eight sites, increased by 0.5–0.7 °C in summer and 0.7–1.0 °C in winter, with larger tributaries warming more than shaded headwaters. Rates of winter warming were slightly greater after accounting for the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (1.1–1.4 °C). However, warming through time was smaller than measured variations among tributaries, and alone was insufficient to explain variations in salmonid density. Instead, population variations were best explained in multilevel mixed models by a synoptic variate representing a trend towards hotter, drier summers, implying interactions between climate warming, varying discharge and fluctuations in both brown trout and salmon. Taken alongside recent data showing effects of warming on survival at sea, these data suggest that Atlantic salmon might be jeopardized by future climatic effects in both their marine and freshwater stages. Effects on nondiadromous brown trout also imply climatically mediated processes in freshwaters or their catchments. Climate projections for the United Kingdom suggest that altered summer flow and increasing summer temperatures could exacerbate losses further in these species, and we advocate management actions that combine reduced abstraction with enhanced riparian shading.     

Annual survival of adult Atlantic Puffins Fratercula arctica is positively correlated with Herring Clupea harengus availability

Atlantic Herring is a keystone species in several marine ecosystems, supporting intensive fisheries as well as many predators including seabirds. Biomass of this stock in eastern North America has declined considerably in recent years, potentially putting at risk populations of its predators. Although adult survival in seabirds is considered robust to moderate changes in food availability, it is also the life‐history component most critical to sustaining populations of long‐lived birds. To investigate the possibility that Atlantic Puffin survival has been affected by reduced abundance of its main prey, we analysed the encounter histories of 2999 Atlantic Puffins ringed on Machias Seal Island to estimate annual adult survival for the years 1999–2011 and assess trends in survival and the effects of several biological and environmental covariates. Features of Puffin biology and resighting procedures likely to introduce heterogeneity into our resighting probabilities were accounted for and models of survival were assessed using standard methods. We used the variance components procedure in Program MARK and survival estimates from a time‐varying model to estimate the process variance (biological variation in survival) accounted for by suspected covariates of survival. Two proxies of food availability each explained more than half of the variation in annual survival: fishery landings of Atlantic Herring (52%) and per cent (by mass) of 1‐group Herring in the diet of Puffin chicks (51%). In addition to these proxies, May sea‐surface temperature accounted for 37% of variance in survival, but winter values of North Atlantic Oscillation showed no effect. Of those parameters of Puffin biology examined, chick growth rate explained 19% of the process variance in annual survival; laying date, fledging condition and fledging date all explained no variance. A decline in fishery landings of Herring since the early 1990s, and a concurrent decline in adult Puffin survival, reinforces concern for the health of the population of Herring, a keystone forage fish in this region, and of the community of marine predators in the Gulf of Maine that rely on Herring for their survival and reproduction.     

Migration patterns and navigation cues of Atlantic salmon post-smolts migrating from 12 rivers through the coastal zones around the Irish Sea

The freshwater phase of the first seaward migration of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is relatively well understood when compared with our understanding of the marine phase of their migration. In 2021, 1008 wild and 60 ranched Atlantic salmon smolts were tagged with acoustic transmitters in 12 rivers in England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland. Large marine receiver arrays were deployed in the Irish Sea at two locations: at the transition of the Irish Sea into the North Atlantic between Ireland and Scotland, and between southern Scotland and Northern Ireland, to examine the early phase of the marine migration of Atlantic salmon smolts. After leaving their natal rivers' post-smolt migration through the Irish Sea was rapid with minimum speeds ranging from 14.03 to 38.56 km.day⁻¹ for Atlantic salmon smolts that entered the Irish Sea directly from their natal river, to 9.69–39.94 km.day⁻¹ for Atlantic salmon smolts that entered the Irish Sea directly from their natal estuary. Population minimum migration success through the study area was strongly correlated with the distance of travel, populations further away from the point of entry to the open North Atlantic exhibited lower migration success. Post-smolts from different populations experienced different water temperatures on entering the North Atlantic. This was largely driven by the timing of their migration and may have significant consequences for feeding and ultimately survivorship. The influence of water currents on post-smolt movement was investigated using data from previously constructed numerical hydrodynamic models. Modeled water current data in the northern Irish Sea showed that post-smolts had a strong preference for migrating when the current direction was at around 283° (west-north-west) but did not migrate when exposed to strong currents in other directions. This is the most favorable direction for onward passage from the Irish Sea to the continental shelf edge current, a known accumulation point for migrating post-smolts. These results strongly indicate that post-smolts migrating through the coastal marine environment are: (1) not simply migrating by current following (2) engage in active directional swimming (3) have an intrinsic sense of their migration direction and (4) can use cues other than water current direction to orientate during this part of their migration.     

Carcass analogues provide marine subsidies for macroinvertebrates and juvenile Atlantic salmon in temperate oligotrophic streams

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Adaptive divergence in embryonic thermal plasticity among Atlantic salmon populations

In the context of global changes, the long‐term viability of populations of endangered ectotherms may depend on their adaptive potential and ability to cope with temperature variations. We measured responses of Atlantic salmon embryos from four populations to temperature variations and used a Q_ST–F_ST approach to study the adaptive divergence among these populations. Embryos were reared under two experimental conditions: a low temperature regime at 4 °C until eyed‐stage and 10 °C until the end of embryonic development and a high temperature regime with a constant temperature of 10 °C throughout embryonic development. Significant variations among populations and population × temperature interactions were observed for embryo survival, incubation time and length. Q_ST was higher than F_ST in all but one comparison suggesting an important effect of divergent selection. Q_ST was also higher under the high‐temperature treatment than at low temperature for length and survival due to a higher variance among populations under the stressful warmer treatment. Interestingly, heritability was lower for survival under high temperature in relation to a lower additive genetic variance under that treatment. Overall, these results reveal an adaptive divergence in thermal plasticity in embryonic life stages of Atlantic salmon suggesting that salmon populations may differentially respond to temperature variations induced by climate change. These results also suggest that changes in temperature may alter not only the adaptive potential of natural populations but also the selection regimes among them.     

Thiamin dynamics during the adult life cycle of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Thiamin is an essential water-soluble B vitamin known for its wide range of metabolic functions and antioxidant properties. Over the past decades, reproductive failures induced by thiamin deficiency have been observed in several salmonid species worldwide, but it is unclear why this micronutrient deficiency arises. Few studies have compared thiamin concentrations in systems of salmonid populations with or without documented thiamin deficiency. Moreover, it is not well known whether and how thiamin concentration changes during the marine feeding phase and the spawning migration. Therefore, samples of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) were collected when actively feeding in the open Baltic Sea, after the sea migration to natal rivers, after river migration, and during the spawning period. To compare populations of Baltic salmon with systems without documented thiamin deficiency, a population of landlocked salmon located in Lake Vänern (Sweden) was sampled as well as salmon from Norwegian rivers draining into the North Atlantic Ocean. Results showed the highest mean thiamin concentrations in Lake Vänern salmon, followed by North Atlantic, and the lowest in Baltic populations. Therefore, salmon in the Baltic Sea seem to be consistently more constrained by thiamin than those in other systems. Condition factor and body length had little to no effect on thiamin concentrations in all systems, suggesting that there is no relation between the body condition of salmon and thiamin deficiency. In our large spatiotemporal comparison of salmon populations, thiamin concentrations declined toward spawning in all studied systems, suggesting that the reduction in thiamin concentration arises as a natural consequence of starvation rather than to be related to thiamin deficiency in the system. These results suggest that factors affecting accumulation during the marine feeding phase are key for understanding the thiamin deficiency in salmonids.     

The influence of broad scale climatic phenomena on long term trends in Atlantic salmon population size: an example from the River Foyle, Ireland

The effect of marine climatic conditions in the North Atlantic on the abundance of returning migrant Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in the River Foyle, Ireland was examined. Catches of Atlantic salmon from commercial netting stations significantly predicted a measure of population size independent of catches over a 48 year period, thus commercial net catches were used as a measure of relative population size over a longer period in this study. The North Atlantic Oscillation index in winter (wNAOI) provides a generalized measure of climate variation for the northern hemisphere and between 1875 and 2001, the wNAOI was a highly significant predictor of the 5 year running mean of catches of migrant Atlantic salmon returning to the River Foyle. When the index was <0·151, the wNAOI correlated significantly and negatively with Atlantic salmon catches, with 70% of the variance in population size explained by variation in conditions in the marine environment between 1875 and 2001. When the wNAOI was >0·151, however, this relationship uncoupled. The probability of catches exceeding the long‐term median was 2·34 times lower in years where the wNAOI was above the 0·151 breakpoint than for years when it was <0·151. The wNAOI exceeded the 0·151 threshold on 8 out of the 10 years prior to 2001. Models of climate change indicated that the NAOI is likely to increase significantly with time. If these models are correct, this study would lead to the conclusion that a decoupling of these broad scale climate effects on Atlantic salmon population size will become the norm. Data presented here suggests two consequences of this. Firstly that the value of the NAOI as a predictive tool for forecasting adult Atlantic salmon population size will be limited and secondly that the median population size will become lower in the future.     

Comparative estuarine and marine migration ecology of Atlantic salmon and steelhead: blue highways and open plains

This synthesis focuses on the estuarine and ocean ecology of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) across their southern ranges in North America. General life history and ecology share many common traits including iteroparity, duration of freshwater (0–3 years) and marine (2–5 years) rearing, ocean emigration at relatively large sizes and strong surface orientation compared to other salmonids. Despite parallels in life history and anthropogenic pressures, several differences emerged for these species. First, steelhead have greater life history diversity and a broader geographic distribution. Generally, estuary habitats serve as short-term migration corridors for both species. However, some steelhead populations used lagoon habitat in south-coast watersheds. While both species are epipelagic, Atlantic salmon exhibit more vertical migration. Atlantic salmon tend to follow migratory highways—relatively narrow bands along the coastal shelf, then crossing the Atlantic to feed inshore and in fjords of West Greenland. Conversely, steelhead exit the coastal shelf quickly, dispersing across the Pacific, and rarely use coastal environments. Despite inhabiting rivers in warm dry Mediterranean climates, the extended range and stability of southern steelhead distribution is likely buffered by cool upwelled waters of the California Current. Whereas Atlantic salmon populations are restricted by warmer Northwest Atlantic circulation patterns lacking cool upwelling with greater susceptibility to warming associated with climate change. Determining the rate of marine habitat changes in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is important to the conservation of these species, including subtleties of temporal and spatial habitat use, and adaptability to ocean ecosystems under climate change.     

Perspectives on wild and hatchery salmon interactions at sea,potential climate effects on Japanese chum salmon,and the need for sustainable salmon fishery management reform in Japan

Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) play an important role as a keystone species and provider of ecosystem services in the North Pacific ecosystem. We review our studies on recent production trends, marine carrying capacity, climate effects and biological interactions between wild and hatchery origin populations of Pacific salmon in the open sea, with a particular focus on Japanese chum salmon (O. keta). Salmon catch data indicates that the abundance of Pacific salmon increased since the 1976/77 ocean regime shift. Chum and pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) maintained high abundances with a sharp increase in hatchery-released populations since the late 1980s. Since the 1990s, the biomass contribution of hatchery returns to the total catch amounts to 50% for chum salmon, more than 10% for pink salmon, and less than 10% for sockeye salmon (O. nerka). We show evidence of density-dependence of growth and survival at sea and how it might vary across spatial scales, and we provide some new information on foraging plasticity that may offer new insight into competitive interactions. The marine carrying capacity of these three species is synchronized with long-term patterns in climate change. At the present time, global warming has positively affected growth and survival of Hokkaido populations of chum salmon. In the future, however, global warming may decrease the marine carrying capacity and the area of suitable habitat for chum salmon in the North Pacific Ocean. We outline future challenges for salmon sustainable conservation management in Japan, and recommend fishery management reform to sustain the hatchery-supported salmon fishery while conserving natural spawning populations.     

Date of marine annulus formation in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and implications for retrospective growth analyses using scales

Fish scales have increasingly been used to quantify annual and seasonal growth trends and in efforts to relate growth to environmental conditions. Understanding the timing of formation of an annulus (a group of narrowly spaced circuli) is critical when assessing the influence of marine ecosystem conditions on seasonal growth patterns of Atlantic salmon, yet the literature does not provide consistent answers regarding the timing or drivers of marine annulus formation. This study demonstrates a novel method for estimating stock-specific annulus formation timing based on marked individuals with known emigration and return/recovery dates. An equation was applied to estimate the date of annulus completion for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) using known dates, number of circuli after the most recent annulus and marine circulus deposition rate. Five marine circulus deposition rate scenarios were tested, some of which accounted for individual, seasonal and age-related variability and others which use previously published marine circulus deposition rates. Based on these results, an argument is presented to reconsider the practice of assigning annulus formation dates to winter solstice in favour of dates estimated by a scenario that accounts for individual, seasonal and age-related variation in circulus deposition. This scenario suggests that annulus formation occurs between mid-February and late March. In this case, the annulus would be formed during the coldest part of the year in the primary overwintering area for North American Atlantic salmon.     

Widespread hybridization between native Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, and introduced brown trout, S. trutta, in eastern Newfoundland

Hybridization between native Atlantic salmon and introduced brown trout was found to occur at a mean frequency of 0.9% in Atlantic salmon populations in eastern Newfoundland. Hybrids were detected in five of the 10 watersheds studied, but consideration of sampling error suggests that they could have been present in the remaining five watersheds although they were not detected. The frequency found in the Newfoundland and other North American salmon populations is significantly greater than the 0.3% reported for salmon populations in the British Isles, and both are higher than frequencies observed in salmon populations in Sweden. The higher frequency in North America is in accord with the prediction that hybridization between species will be more frequent where one species is introduced than in areas where both are native.     

Parallel declines in survival of adult Northern Fulmars Fulmarus glacialis at colonies in Scotland and Ireland

Assessing broad‐scale changes in seabird populations across the North Atlantic requires an integration of available datasets to understand the spatial extent of potential drivers and demographic change. Here, we compared survival of Northern Fulmars Fulmarus glacialis from a Scottish and an Irish colony from 1974 to 2009. Despite lower recapture probabilities of monel‐ringed Irish birds compared with colour‐ringed Scottish birds, survival probability decreased at both colonies. The extent to which the decline in survival is related to density‐dependent processes or other external drivers remains uncertain, but our results suggest that these changes in survival are possibly indicative of larger‐scale processes and are not confined to local colony dynamics.     

SURVIVAL ESTIMATES FOR FLORIDA MANATEES FROM THE PHOTO-IDENTIFICATION OF INDIVIDUALS

We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) in four regional populations using photoidentification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727–0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827–0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946–0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.     

It is the economy,stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological–economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species – Atlantic salmon and European sea bass – mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process‐based ecological–economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.