2001-2010年疏勒河流域植被净初级生产力时空变化及其与气候因子的关系

通过改进的光能利用率CASA模型估算2001-2010年间疏勒河流域陆地生态系统的净第一性生产力（NPP）,采用线性趋势分析、变异系数和Hurst指数等方法,分析了NPP的时空变化特征及其与气候因子的相关性。结果表明：①疏勒河流域NPP的空间分布具有明显差异,空间上呈现西北低、东南高的趋势,且具有较明显的经向"条带"分布特征,2001-2010年,NPP平均值为102.26 gC m^-2 a^-1。②2001-2010年,疏勒河流域NPP总体呈增长趋势,年际波动较大,NPP明显增加的区域占总面积25.15%,明显减小的区域约占11.93%。③Hurst指数分析显示,疏勒河流域NPP变化的同向特征强于反向特征,其中持续改善地区占总面积的78.3%,21.7%的区域将由改善转为退化。④在年尺度上,降水是植被NPP变化的主要影响因素,NPP与降水呈弱的正相关关系,与温度相关性不显著;在月尺度上,温度是NPP变化的主要控制因子。疏勒河流域NPP对气候因子不存在明显的时滞和累积效应。     

2000—2012年京津风沙源治理区植被覆盖时空演变特征

植被是陆地生态系统的主体,分析长时期植被覆盖变化,有助于揭示陆地生态环境的演变规律。研究以京津风沙源重点治理区的MODIS02B产品为数据源,通过数据处理获得2000—2012年的NDVI(Normalized difference vegetation index)时序数据集,采用线性趋势分析、标准差、Hurst指数和相关系数等方法,分析京津风沙源重点治理区植被覆盖的时空变化特征及影响因子。结果显示:(1)近13年来,治理区植被覆盖总体呈上升趋势(R2=0.70),2012年NDVI值达最大值0.324,比2000年增加了135.62%。但增加速率和幅度各异:北部干旱区(Bbghq)增加速度最快,浑善达克区(Hsdkq)次之,农牧交错区(Nmjcq)植被变化相对稳定。(2)工程区地表植被覆盖改善区域的面积明显大于退化区域,其中得到改善且通过显著性检验(P=0.10)的区域约占总面积的94.31%;Hurst指数分析表明,工程区植被变化整体呈中强持续性特征,面积合计约占64.48%;综合分析表明,工程区植被变化以良性发展为主,特别是强持续性的退化区和弱持续性的改善区值得关注,二者合计占35.27%。(3)人类活动是京津风沙地区植被覆盖上升的重要驱动因素;自然因素中,降水是控制工程区植被生长的主要因子,温度的影响相对较弱。     

1982-2013年基于GIMMS-NDVI的新疆植被覆盖时空变化

利用美国国家航天航空局（NASA）全球检测与模型组（Global Inventor Modeling and Mapping Studies,GIMMS）的归一化植被指数数据（NDVI）和英国东英格利亚大学气候研究所（Climate Research Unit,CRU）全球气温降水数据（1982至2013年）,研究新疆1982-2013年植被覆盖格局的时空变化。运用一元线性回归法分析近32年来新疆NDVI变化趋势;运用Theil-Sen median与Mann-Kendall检验研究新疆NDVI格局及趋势特征;并将检验的结果和Hurst指数的结果相结合,研究新疆NDVI格局的可持续性特征。研究表明：（1）新疆植被覆盖在空间分布上差异明显,其中北疆优于南疆,西北优于东南;（2）近32年来新疆年NDVI均值在0.10-0.12之间波动,且存阶段变化性;（3）新疆植被改善趋势的区域占总面积的25.89%,轻微退化的区域占总面积的18.00%;（4）从可持续性来看,新疆大部分地区植被变化将保持现在的趋势,但局部地区具有反持续性,持续性改善的面积占全疆总面积的24.39%,持续性轻微退化的区域占15.73%,另外59.88%为严重退化和未来变化趋势无法确定区域。开展NDVI空间格局的变化研究,对于干旱区新疆来说具有重要的理论和实际意义。     

中国西北干旱区植被碳汇估算及其时空格局

通过修正的CASA模型估算2001—2012年间西北干旱区陆地生态系统的净第一性生产力(NPP),并结合土壤微生物呼吸方程,计算出12a的净生态系统生产力(NEP),分析了植被碳汇的时空变化规律。结果表明:研究区的NPP表现出很强的随季节变化的规律,全年7月份NPP为最高值,12月为最低值,12年间NPP的年均值变化不大。2001—2012年研究区的植被碳汇在波动变化中有所增加,其中2006年的碳汇平均值最小,为609.04 g C m~(-2)a~(-1),2012年最大,为648.02 g C m~(-2)a~(-1);年内碳汇的最大值主要出现在5—7月;碳汇能力由大到小的植被类型为针叶林农田灌丛阔叶林草原荒漠草原。研究区多年平均碳汇量呈现自西向东逐渐增加的规律,西辽河流域草原区的NPP和碳汇平均值最大,塔里木盆地暖温带荒漠区最小。     

疏勒河流域土地利用变化对净初级生产力的影响

研究区域土地利用变化对植被净初级生产力(NPP)的影响, 对厘清植被的生长状况及其和土地利用变化的关系, 以及维持区域生态环境可持续发展具有重要意义。以中国西北干旱区疏勒河流域为例, 基于土地利用数据和CASA模型计算的2001—2015年植被NPP数据, 分析了疏勒河流域NPP的时空变化特征, 探讨土地利用变化对植被NPP的影响。结果如下: 2001—2015年, 疏勒河流域NPP年总值整体上呈上升的趋势。NPP增加的区域占总面积的84.29%,上游山区和中下游绿洲区增加的最显著。NPP减少的区域占总面积的15.71%,主要分布于北部的肃北、敦煌的西部和南部及中下游绿洲的南北两侧。15年间土地利用的面积变化对NPP贡献率空间差异显著, 但总体上对NPP总量增加起到促进作用, 且耕地面积的变化对NPP总量的贡献率最大。     

青海省植被净初级生产力(NPP)时空格局变化及其驱动因素

植被净初级生产力(NPP)作为陆地生态过程的关键参数,不仅用以估算地球支持能力和评价陆地生态系统的可持续发展,也是全球碳循环的重要组成部分和关键环节。基于2000—2014年MOD17A3年均NPP数据和气象站点气温、降水资料,采用简单差值、趋势分析、相关性分析和Hurst指数等方法,分析了青海省NPP的时空变化特征及其与气候因子的关系。结果表明:①青海省植被年均NPP在2000—2014年间整体分布呈现由南到北、由东到西递减的趋势,各生态区的空间存在显著差异,表现为Ⅱ区Ⅰ区Ⅲ区Ⅳ区Ⅴ区。②2000—2014年,青海省NPP变化趋势由北到南、由西到东呈现逐渐增加趋势,平均趋势系数为0.61,NPP值增加的区域占总面积的15%,其中显著增加区域为2.8%,轻度增加区域为12.2%。③青海省NPP值的Hurst的值域范围为0—0.39,均值为0.12,除了河流湖泊,建筑用地和未利用土地,青海省NPP变化特征为反持续性特征。④气候因子(年平均降水量和年均气温)对年均NPP的分布有影响,海拔的高低造成气温、降水和土壤的差异,间接影响植被NPP,15年土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)表现为草地面积减少最多,这是导致NPP减少的主要原因。     

基于多源数据的三江源区生态工程建设前后草地动态变化及驱动因素研究

基于2000-2015年的NDVI、NPP和GPP多源数据,并结合人类干扰强度等级的构建,采用线性回归分析和地理加权回归分析方法,对比分析了在不同干扰等级下三江源区生态工程实施前5年和后10年草地的动态变化及其驱动因素。结果表明：（1）人类干扰强度和NDVI、NPP、GPP在空间上具有显著的区域差异,均表现为从西北向东南增加的趋势,且2006-2010年和2011-2015年草地NDVI、NPP和GPP值明显高于2000-2004年;（2）与2000-2004年相比,2006-2010年草地NDVI、NPP和GPP值的草地退化面积均减少,而2011-2015年退化面积又均增加,表明生态工程建设后的5年较前5年草地退化状况得到改善,然而在下一个5年草地又出现退化趋势;（3）在各人类干扰等级下生态工程实施后的5年内70%以上的草地处于改善状态,均出现退化面积比例显著减少,改善面积比例显著增加的趋势,而在2011-2015后5年草地退化面积比例增加,表明生态工程的实施促进了草地生态系统的改善,尤其在重度人类干扰区,草地由2000-2004年的52.71%退化区域到2006-2010年84.95%的改善区域。（4）影响草地动态变化的主要因素为距离道路的距离、距离居民点的距离、人口密度、干旱、温度和坡度等,各影响因素分布具有明显的空间异质性。研究结果将有助于为三江源区草地生态系统恢复、管理和战略制定提供科学指导和决策依据。     

1960～2011年秦岭南北气温和降水变化对植被净第一性生产力的影响研究

基于秦岭南北1960～2011年月平均气温和降水量等气候要素资料,应用周广胜-张新时模型计算了近52年的植被净第一性生产力(NPP),分析其年际和年代际变化特征及其对温度和降水的响应。结果表明:(1)研究区多年平均气温呈南高北低分布格局,1993年为气温变化转折点,此前为降温趋势,秦岭以南降温更明显,此后研究区大面积升温,近52年间98%以上的站点呈升温趋势。(2)降水量由北向南递增,1985年为降水变化转折点,此前降水呈减少趋势,此后70%以上站点降水增多;1960～2011年间秦岭以北地区有变干趋势,而秦岭南坡以变湿为主,其余地区变化不明显。(3)周广胜-张新时模型的模拟结果与实测值的平均误差为11.1%,整体上精度较高,说明模型可以用于秦岭南北地区NPP的估算;研究区NPP呈南高北低分布格局,NPP增加的站点所占比例排序为汉水流域>秦岭南坡>巴巫谷地>秦岭以北;NPP年际波动较小,极值比介于1.34～1.89之间。(4)未来气候变化对NPP的可能影响预测结果显示,水热条件同时改善(a情景)的情况下NPP普遍增加14.8%以上,秦岭以北增加趋势更明显,温带落叶阔叶林增幅最大,温带草丛增幅最小;温度升高而降水减少(b情景)的情况下大部分站点NPP减少,亚热带(热带)常绿(落叶阔叶)林减幅最大,温带落叶阔叶林减幅最小;c情景下NPP增幅有限,明显小于a情景,秦岭以北地区的增加趋势更明显,不同植被类型的变化趋势与a情景一致,但明显小于前者。     

基于机器学习估算青藏高原多年冻土区草地净初级生产力

净初级生产力(NPP)的估算还存在很大的不确定性。本文利用机器学习算法(RF和RBF-ANN)估算了2002—2018年青藏高原多年冻土区草地NPP,分析了青藏高原多年冻土区草地NPP的时空格局、变化特征及其对气候因子的响应。结果表明:(1)机器学习估算结果可靠,简单易行。(2)青藏高原多年冻土区草地NPP表现为东南向西北逐渐递减的趋势;NPP总量为175.39 Tg C·a~(-1),单位面积均值为164.10 g C·m~(-2)·a~(-1),呈波动上升的趋势。(3)青藏高原多年冻土区草地NPP增加的面积占20.49%;各草地类型的NPP增长幅度不一致表现为高寒沼泽草甸高寒草甸高寒草原高寒荒漠草原。(4)温度是青藏高原多年冻土区草地NPP变化的主导因子,降水的影响沿东南向西北逐渐减弱。     

2000-2018年京津冀地区植被净初级生产力时空演变及其驱动因素

基于MODIS-NDVI(Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)、气象站点及植被类型数据, 采用改进的CASA(Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) 模型估算了2000-2018年京津冀地区NPP (Net Primary Productivity), 并采用趋势分析、相关分析等方法对该地区NPP时空分布特征及其影响因素进行了分析。结果表明: 1)时间上, 2000-2018年京津冀地区NPP整体呈增加趋势(slope=0.6535 gC·(m2·a)-1), 其中草地增速最快(slope=1.5123 gC·(m2·a)-1); 2)空间上, 2000-2018年年均NPP为349.96 gC·(m2·a)-1, 高值区主要集中在燕山山脉及太行山脉等地, 低值区主要集中在西北部高原以及东部沿海地区。西北高原及山地地区植被恢复显著, 中部及沿海区域NPP退化严重; 3)地形上, NPP随海拔升高呈“增加-减少-增加”的变化趋势, 随地形起伏度整体呈增加趋势, 不同植被NPP随地形的变化大致相同; 4)就相关性来看, NPP与气温整体呈负相关关系(r=-0.03), 与降水整体呈正相关关系(r=0.36), 降水对NPP影响更大; 5)就不同地形的NPP变化来看, 中海拔地区、丘陵及山地地区绿化趋势显著, 耕地、草地和林地恢复显著, NPP显著增加; 低海拔、低起伏度处, 受耕地NPP显著减少影响, 植被退化严重。     

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化V.宁夏农业气候资源变化特征

基于1961-2009年宁夏21个气象站点的气象资料,分析了宁夏各区农业气候资源的时空变化趋势.结果表明:研究期间,宁夏各地气温逐渐升高,呈北高南低的空间分布特征,年均气温的气候倾向率为0.4℃·(10 a)-1;大部分地区年降水量呈逐渐减少趋势,年降水量的气候倾向率为4.26 mm·(10 a)-1;无霜期和作物生长季天数随着气候变暖逐渐延长;≥10℃积温在3200℃·d以上的区域向南扩展,宁夏适宜种植中晚熟水稻的区域有所扩大;2001-2009年,宁夏大部分地区适宜种植冬小麦,全区各地几乎都适宜种植春小麦;宁夏南部山区各地7月平均气温≤20℃的区域面积逐渐缩小,适宜种植马铃薯的地域也随之缩小.     

Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900–1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.     

The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century

Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on‐going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit (deficit) over the contiguous US during the 20th century (1916–2005). Vectors for these variables demonstrate a complex mosaic of patterns that vary spatially and temporally and are dependent on the spatial resolution of input climate data. Velocities for variables that characterize the climatic water balance were similar in magnitude to that derived from temperature, but frequently differed in direction resulting in the divergence of climate vectors through time. Our results strain expectations of poleward and upslope migration over the past century due to warming. Instead, they suggest that a more full understanding of changes in multiple climatic factors, in addition to temperature, may help explain unexpected or conflicting observational evidence of climate‐driven species range shifts during the 20th century.     

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅴ.宁夏农业气候资源变化特征

基于1961—2009年宁夏21个气象站点的气象资料,分析了宁夏各区农业气候资源的时空变化趋势.结果表明：研究期间,宁夏各地气温逐渐升高,呈北高南低的空间分布特征,年均气温的气候倾向率为0.4 ℃·(10 a)^-1;大部分地区年降水量呈逐渐减少趋势,年降水量的气候倾向率为4.26 mm·(10 a)^-1;无霜期和作物生长季天数随着气候变暖逐渐延长;≥10 ℃积温在3200 ℃·d以上的区域向南扩展,宁夏适宜种植中晚熟水稻的区域有所扩大;2001—2009年,宁夏大部分地区适宜种植冬小麦,全区各地几乎都适宜种植春小麦;宁夏南部山区各地7月平均气温≤20 ℃的区域面积逐渐缩小,适宜种植马铃薯的地域也随之缩小.     

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO₂ rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified.     

植物物候与气候研究进展

植物物候及其变化是多个环境因子综合影响的结果,其中气候是最重要、最活跃的环境因子。主要从气候环境角度分析了植物物候与气候以及气候变化间的相互关系,概述了国内外有关植物物候及物候模拟等方面的研究进展。表明,温度是影响物候变化最重要的因子;同时,水分成为胁迫因子时对物候的影响也十分重要。近50a左右,世界范围内的植物物候呈现出了春季物候提前,秋季物候推迟或略有推迟的特征,从而导致了多数植物生长季节的延长,并成为全球物候变化的趋势。全球气候变暖改变了植物开始和结束生长的日期,其中冬季、春季气温的升高使植物的春季物候提前是植物生长季延长的主要原因。目前对物候学的研究方向主要集中在探讨物候与气候变化之间的关系,而模型模拟是定量研究气候变化与植物物候之间关系的重要方式,国内外已经开发出多种物候模型来分析气候驱动与物候响应之间的因果关系。另外遥感资料的应用也为物候模型研究提供了新的方向。物候机理研究、物候与气候关系以及物候模型研究将是研究的重点。     

Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change

Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical challenge. We explore multiple drivers of heterogeneous vulnerability across the distributions of 96 vegetation types of the ecologically diverse western US, using data on observed climate trends from 1948 to 2014 to highlight emerging patterns of change. We ask three novel questions about factors potentially shaping vulnerability across the region: (a) How does sensitivity to different climate variables vary geographically and across vegetation classes? (b) How do multivariate climate exposure patterns interact with these sensitivities to shape vulnerability patterns? (c) How different are these vulnerability patterns according to three widely implemented vulnerability paradigms—niche novelty (decline in modeled suitability), temporal novelty (standardized anomaly), and spatial novelty (inbound climate velocity)—each of which uses a distinct frame of reference to quantify climate departure? We propose that considering these three novelty paradigms in combination could help improve our understanding and prediction of heterogeneous climate change responses, and we discuss the distinct climate adaptation strategies connected with different combinations of high and low novelty across the three metrics. Our results reveal a diverse mosaic of climate change vulnerability signatures across the region's plant communities. Each of the above factors contributes strongly to this heterogeneity: climate variable sensitivity exhibits clear patterns across vegetation types, multivariate climate change data reveal highly diverse exposure signatures across locations, and the three novelty paradigms diverge widely in their climate change vulnerability predictions. Together, these results shed light on potential drivers of individualistic climate change responses and may help to inform effective management strategies.     

Human land uses reduce climate connectivity across North America

Climate connectivity, the ability of a landscape to promote or hinder the movement of organisms in response to a changing climate, is contingent on multiple factors including the distance organisms need to move to track suitable climate over time (i.e. climate velocity) and the resistance they experience along such routes. An additional consideration which has received less attention is that human land uses increase resistance to movement or alter movement routes and thus influence climate connectivity. Here we evaluate the influence of human land uses on climate connectivity across North America by comparing two climate connectivity scenarios, one considering climate change in isolation and the other considering climate change and human land uses. In doing so, we introduce a novel metric of climate connectivity, ‘human exposure’, that quantifies the cumulative exposure to human activities that organisms may encounter as they shift their ranges in response to climate change. We also delineate potential movement routes and evaluate whether the protected area network supports movement corridors better than non‐protected lands. We found that when incorporating human land uses, climate connectivity decreased; climate velocity increased on average by 0.3 km/year and cumulative climatic resistance increased for ~83% of the continent. Moreover, ~96% of movement routes in North America must contend with human land uses to some degree. In the scenario that evaluated climate change in isolation, we found that protected areas do not support climate corridors at a higher rate than non‐protected lands across North America. However, variability is evident, as many ecoregions contain protected areas that exhibit both more and less representation of climate corridors compared to non‐protected lands. Overall, our study indicates that previous evaluations of climate connectivity underestimate climate change exposure because they do not account for human impacts.     

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts,processes and potential future impacts

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance‐induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well‐defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta‐analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land‐cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground‐based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub‐)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks.     

Range expansion during the Pleistocene drove morphological radiation of the fir genus (Abies,Pinaceae) in the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau and Himalayas

Range expansion caused by climate oscillations in the past probably promoted morphological radiation in a few plant groups. In this study, we aim to test this hypothesis through phylogeographical analysis of the cold‐tolerant fir genus (Abies) in the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) and Himalayas, where it comprises 12 described species. We examined sequence variation in two maternally inherited mitochondrial (mt) DNA fragments (nad5‐4 and nad7‐1) and two paternally inherited plastid DNA fragments (trnS‐G and trnL‐F) for 733 individuals from 75 populations of the species in a monophyletic group. Only six mtDNA haplotypes were recovered, but five were shared between multiple species and one occurred at a high frequency, providing strong evidence of range expansion. Forty‐three plastid DNA haplotypes were detected, 19 of which were shared between species and three occurred at high frequency. Network, mismatch and Bayesian skyline plot analyses of all plastid DNA haplotypes from this clade clearly suggested range expansion. This expansion was dated as having occurred during the longest and most extensive glaciation in the Pleistocene. Our results therefore supported the range expansion hypothesis for this clade of Abies during the Pleistocene; expansion probably drove the morphological radiation of the clade in the QTP and Himalayas, although it remains unclear whether the different morphotypes should be acknowledged as independent, reproductively isolated species. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 179 , 444–453.