Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non‐additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single‐factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best‐fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change.     

A METHOD FOR ASSESSING PHYLOGENETIC LEAST SQUARES MODELS FOR SHAPE AND OTHER HIGH‐DIMENSIONAL MULTIVARIATE DATA

Studies of evolutionary correlations commonly use phylogenetic regression (i.e., independent contrasts and phylogenetic generalized least squares) to assess trait covariation in a phylogenetic context. However, while this approach is appropriate for evaluating trends in one or a few traits, it is incapable of assessing patterns in highly multivariate data, as the large number of variables relative to sample size prohibits parametric test statistics from being computed. This poses serious limitations for comparative biologists, who must either simplify how they quantify phenotypic traits, or alter the biological hypotheses they wish to examine. In this article, I propose a new statistical procedure for performing ANOVA and regression models in a phylogenetic context that can accommodate high‐dimensional datasets. The approach is derived from the statistical equivalency between parametric methods using covariance matrices and methods based on distance matrices. Using simulations under Brownian motion, I show that the method displays appropriate Type I error rates and statistical power, whereas standard parametric procedures have decreasing power as data dimensionality increases. As such, the new procedure provides a useful means of assessing trait covariation across a set of taxa related by a phylogeny, enabling macroevolutionary biologists to test hypotheses of adaptation, and phenotypic change in high‐dimensional datasets.     

CONFOLD: Residue‐residue contact‐guided ab initio protein folding

Predicted protein residue–residue contacts can be used to build three‐dimensional models and consequently to predict protein folds from scratch. A considerable amount of effort is currently being spent to improve contact prediction accuracy, whereas few methods are available to construct protein tertiary structures from predicted contacts. Here, we present an ab initio protein folding method to build three‐dimensional models using predicted contacts and secondary structures. Our method first translates contacts and secondary structures into distance, dihedral angle, and hydrogen bond restraints according to a set of new conversion rules, and then provides these restraints as input for a distance geometry algorithm to build tertiary structure models. The initially reconstructed models are used to regenerate a set of physically realistic contact restraints and detect secondary structure patterns, which are then used to reconstruct final structural models. This unique two‐stage modeling approach of integrating contacts and secondary structures improves the quality and accuracy of structural models and in particular generates better β‐sheets than other algorithms. We validate our method on two standard benchmark datasets using true contacts and secondary structures. Our method improves TM‐score of reconstructed protein models by 45% and 42% over the existing method on the two datasets, respectively. On the dataset for benchmarking reconstructions methods with predicted contacts and secondary structures, the average TM‐score of best models reconstructed by our method is 0.59, 5.5% higher than the existing method. The CONFOLD web server is available at http://protein.rnet.missouri.edu/confold/ . Proteins 2015; 83:1436–1449. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Revealing hidden evolutionary capacity to cope with global change

The extent to which global change will impact the long‐term persistence of species depends on their evolutionary potential to adapt to future conditions. While the number of studies that estimate the standing levels of adaptive genetic variation in populations under predicted global change scenarios is growing all the time, few studies have considered multiple environments simultaneously and even fewer have considered evolutionary potential in multivariate context. Because conditions will not be constant, adaptation to climate change is fundamentally a multivariate process so viewing genetic variances and covariances over multivariate space will always be more informative than relying on bivariate genetic correlations between traits. A multivariate approach to understanding the evolutionary capacity to cope with global change is necessary to avoid misestimating adaptive genetic variation in the dimensions in which selection will act. We assessed the evolutionary capacity of the larval stage of the marine polychaete Galeolaria caespitosa to adapt to warmer water temperatures. Galeolaria is an important habitat‐forming species in Australia, and its earlier life‐history stages tend to be more susceptible to stress. We used a powerful quantitative genetics design that assessed the impacts of three temperatures on subsequent survival across over 30 000 embryos across 204 unique families. We found adaptive genetic variation in the two cooler temperatures in our study, but none in the warmest temperature. Based on these results, we would have concluded that this species has very little capacity to evolve to the warmest temperature. However, when we explored genetic variation in multivariate space, we found evidence that larval survival has the potential to evolve even in the warmest temperatures via correlated responses to selection across thermal environments. Future studies should take a multivariate approach to estimating evolutionary capacity to cope with global change lest they misestimate a species’ true adaptive potential.     

High performance computation of landscape genomic models including local indicators of spatial association

With the increasing availability of both molecular and topo‐climatic data, the main challenges facing landscape genomics – that is the combination of landscape ecology with population genomics – include processing large numbers of models and distinguishing between selection and demographic processes (e.g. population structure). Several methods address the latter, either by estimating a null model of population history or by simultaneously inferring environmental and demographic effects. Here we present sam βada , an approach designed to study signatures of local adaptation, with special emphasis on high performance computing of large‐scale genetic and environmental data sets. sam βada identifies candidate loci using genotype–environment associations while also incorporating multivariate analyses to assess the effect of many environmental predictor variables. This enables the inclusion of explanatory variables representing population structure into the models to lower the occurrences of spurious genotype–environment associations. In addition, sam βada calculates local indicators of spatial association for candidate loci to provide information on whether similar genotypes tend to cluster in space, which constitutes a useful indication of the possible kinship between individuals. To test the usefulness of this approach, we carried out a simulation study and analysed a data set from Ugandan cattle to detect signatures of local adaptation with sam βada , bayenv , lfmm and an F_ST outlier method (FDIST approach in arlequin ) and compare their results. sam βada – an open source software for Windows, Linux and Mac OS X available at http://lasig.epfl.ch/sambada – outperforms other approaches and better suits whole‐genome sequence data processing.     

Multiset sparse redundancy analysis for high‐dimensional omics data

Redundancy Analysis (RDA) is a well‐known method used to describe the directional relationship between related data sets. Recently, we proposed sparse Redundancy Analysis (sRDA) for high‐dimensional genomic data analysis to find explanatory variables that explain the most variance of the response variables. As more and more biomolecular data become available from different biological levels, such as genotypic and phenotypic data from different omics domains, a natural research direction is to apply an integrated analysis approach in order to explore the underlying biological mechanism of certain phenotypes of the given organism. We show that the multiset sparse Redundancy Analysis (multi‐sRDA) framework is a prominent candidate for high‐dimensional omics data analysis since it accounts for the directional information transfer between omics sets, and, through its sparse solutions, the interpretability of the result is improved. In this paper, we also describe a software implementation for multi‐sRDA, based on the Partial Least Squares Path Modeling algorithm. We test our method through simulation and real omics data analysis with data sets of 364,134 methylation markers, 18,424 gene expression markers, and 47 cytokine markers measured on 37 patients with Marfan syndrome.     

Multi-trait association mapping in sugar beet (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Beta vulgaris</Emphasis> L.)

Association mapping promises to overcome the limitations of linkage mapping methods. The main objective of this study was to examine the applicability of multivariate association mapping with an empirical data set of sugar beet. A total of 111 diploid sugar beet inbreds was selected from the seed parent heterotic pool to represent a broad diversity with respect to sugar content (SC). The inbreds were genotyped with 26 simple sequence repeat markers chosen according to their map positions in proximity to previously identified quantitative trait loci for SC. For SC and beet yield (BY), the genotypic variances were highly significant (P < 0.01). Based on the global test of the bivariate mixed-model approach, four markers were significantly associated with SC, BY, or both at a false discovery rate of 0.025. All four markers were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with BY but only two with SC. The identification of markers associated with SC, BY, or both indicated that association mapping can be successfully applied in a sugar beet breeding context for detection of marker-phenotype associations. Furthermore, based on our results multivariate association mapping can be recommended as a promising tool to discriminate with a high mapping resolution between pleiotropy and linkage as reasons for co-localization of marker-phenotype associations for different traits.     

Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming

New analyses are presented addressing the global impacts of recent climate change on phenology of plant and animal species. A meta‐analysis spanning 203 species was conducted on published datasets from the northern hemisphere. Phenological response was examined with respect to two factors: distribution of species across latitudes and taxonomic affiliation or functional grouping of target species. Amphibians had a significantly stronger shift toward earlier breeding than all other taxonomic/functional groups, advancing more than twice as fast as trees, birds and butterflies. In turn, butterfly emergence or migratory arrival showed three times stronger advancement than the first flowering of herbs, perhaps portending increasing asynchrony in insect–plant interactions. Response was significantly stronger at higher latitudes where warming has been stronger, but latitude explained < 4% of the variation. Despite expectation, latitude was not yet an important predictor of climate change impacts on phenology. The only two previously published estimates of the magnitude of global response are quite different: 2.3 and 5.1 days decade⁻¹ advancement. The scientific community has assumed this difference to be real and has attempted to explain it in terms of biologically relevant phenomena: specifically, differences in distribution of data across latitudes, taxa or time periods. Here, these and other possibilities are explored. All analyses indicate that the difference in estimated response is primarily due to differences between the studies in criteria for incorporating data. It is a clear and automatic consequence of the exclusion by one study of data on ‘stable’ (nonresponsive) species. Once this is accounted for, the two studies support each other, generating similar conclusions despite analyzing substantially nonoverlapping datasets. Analyses here on a new expanded dataset estimate an overall spring advancement across the northern hemisphere of 2.8 days decade⁻¹. This is the first quantitative analysis showing that data‐sampling methodologies significantly impact global (synthetic) estimates of magnitude of global warming response.     

Dimensionality reduction for microarray data using local mean based discriminant analysis

A new method is proposed for finding a low dimensional subspace of high dimensional microarray data. We developed a new criterion for constructing the weight matrix by using local neighborhood information to discover the intrinsic discriminant structure in the data. Also this approach applies regularized least square technique to extract relevant features. We assess the performance of the proposed methodology by applying it to four publicly available tumor datasets. In a low dimensional subspace, the proposed method classified these tumors accurately and reliably. Also, through a comparison study, we verify the reliability of the dimensionality reduction and discrimination results.     

Bryophyte‐cyanobacteria associations as regulators of the northern latitude carbon balance in response to global change

Ecosystems in the far north, including arctic and boreal biomes, are a globally significant pool of carbon (C). Global change is proposed to influence both C uptake and release in these ecosystems, thereby potentially affecting whether they act as C sources or sinks. Bryophytes (i.e., mosses) serve a variety of key functions in these systems, including their association with nitrogen (N₂)‐fixing cyanobacteria, as thermal insulators of the soil, and producers of recalcitrant litter, which have implications for both net primary productivity (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration. While ground‐cover bryophytes typically make up a small proportion of the total biomass in northern systems, their combined physical structure and N₂‐fixing capabilities facilitate a disproportionally large impact on key processes that control ecosystem C and N cycles. As such, the response of bryophyte‐cyanobacteria associations to global change may influence whether and how ecosystem C balances are influenced by global change. Here, we review what is known about their occurrence and N₂‐fixing activity, and how bryophyte systems will respond to several key global change factors. We explore the implications these responses may have in determining how global change influences C balances in high northern latitudes.     

Pleiotropy informed adaptive association test of multiple traits using genome‐wide association study summary data

Genetic variants associated with disease outcomes can be used to develop personalized treatment. To reach this precision medicine goal, hundreds of large‐scale genome‐wide association studies (GWAS) have been conducted in the past decade to search for promising genetic variants associated with various traits. They have successfully identified tens of thousands of disease‐related variants. However, in total these identified variants explain only part of the variation for most complex traits. There remain many genetic variants with small effect sizes to be discovered, which calls for the development of (a) GWAS with more samples and more comprehensively genotyped variants, for example, the NHLBI Trans‐Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) Program is planning to conduct whole genome sequencing on over 100 000 individuals; and (b) novel and more powerful statistical analysis methods. The current dominating GWAS analysis approach is the “single trait” association test, despite the fact that many GWAS are conducted in deeply phenotyped cohorts including many correlated and well‐characterized outcomes, which can help improve the power to detect novel variants if properly analyzed, as suggested by increasing evidence that pleiotropy, where a genetic variant affects multiple traits, is the norm in genome‐phenome associations. We aim to develop pleiotropy informed powerful association test methods across multiple traits for GWAS. Since it is generally very hard to access individual‐level GWAS phenotype and genotype data for those existing GWAS, due to privacy concerns and various logistical considerations, we develop rigorous statistical methods for pleiotropy informed adaptive multitrait association test methods that need only summary association statistics publicly available from most GWAS. We first develop a pleiotropy test, which has powerful performance for truly pleiotropic variants but is sensitive to the pleiotropy assumption. We then develop a pleiotropy informed adaptive test that has robust and powerful performance under various genetic models. We develop accurate and efficient numerical algorithms to compute the analytical P‐value for the proposed adaptive test without the need of resampling or permutation. We illustrate the performance of proposed methods through application to joint association test of GWAS meta‐analysis summary data for several glycemic traits. Our proposed adaptive test identified several novel loci missed by individual trait based GWAS meta‐analysis. All the proposed methods are implemented in a publicly available R package.     

A hybrid omnibus test for generalized semiparametric single‐index models with high‐dimensional covariate sets

Numerous statistical methods have been developed for analyzing high‐dimensional data. These methods often focus on variable selection approaches but are limited for the purpose of testing with high‐dimensional data. They are often required to have explicit‐likelihood functions. In this article, we propose a “hybrid omnibus test” for high‐dicmensional data testing purpose with much weaker requirements. Our hybrid omnibus test is developed under a semiparametric framework where a likelihood function is no longer necessary. Our test is a version of a frequentist‐Bayesian hybrid score‐type test for a generalized partially linear single‐index model, which has a link function being a function of a set of variables through a generalized partially linear single index. We propose an efficient score based on estimating equations, define local tests, and then construct our hybrid omnibus test using local tests. We compare our approach with an empirical‐likelihood ratio test and Bayesian inference based on Bayes factors, using simulation studies. Our simulation results suggest that our approach outperforms the others, in terms of type I error, power, and computational cost in both the low‐ and high‐dimensional cases. The advantage of our approach is demonstrated by applying it to genetic pathway data for type II diabetes mellitus.     

Marginal false discovery rate control for likelihood‐based penalized regression models

The popularity of penalized regression in high‐dimensional data analysis has led to a demand for new inferential tools for these models. False discovery rate control is widely used in high‐dimensional hypothesis testing, but has only recently been considered in the context of penalized regression. Almost all of this work, however, has focused on lasso‐penalized linear regression. In this paper, we derive a general method for controlling the marginal false discovery rate that can be applied to any penalized likelihood‐based model, such as logistic regression and Cox regression. Our approach is fast, flexible and can be used with a variety of penalty functions including lasso, elastic net, MCP, and MNet. We derive theoretical results under which the proposed method is valid, and use simulation studies to demonstrate that the approach is reasonably robust, albeit slightly conservative, when these assumptions are violated. Despite being conservative, we show that our method often offers more power to select causally important features than existing approaches. Finally, the practical utility of the method is demonstrated on gene expression datasets with binary and time‐to‐event outcomes.     

Utility of Marine Benthic Associations as a Multivariate Proxy of Paleobathymetry: A Direct Test from Recent Coastal Ecosystems of North Carolina

Benthic marine fossil associations have been used in paleontological studies as multivariate environmental proxies, with particular focus on their utility as water depth estimators. To test this approach directly, we evaluated modern marine invertebrate communities along an onshore-offshore gradient to determine the relationship between community composition and bathymetry, compare the performance of various ordination techniques, and assess whether restricting community datasets to preservable taxa (a proxy for paleontological data) and finer spatial scales diminishes the applicability of multivariate community data as an environmental proxy. Different indirect (unconstrained) ordination techniques (PCoA, CA, DCA, and NMDS) yielded consistent outcomes: locality Axis 1 scores correlated with actual locality depths, and taxon Axis 1 scores correlated with actual preferred taxon depths, indicating that changes in faunal associations primarily reflect bathymetry, or its environmental correlatives. For datasets restricted to taxa with preservable hard parts, heavily biomineralized mollusks, open ocean habitats, and a single onshore-offshore gradient, the significant correlation between water depth and Axis 1 was still observed. However, for these restricted datasets, the correlation between Axis 1 and bathymetry was reduced and, in most cases, notably weaker than estimates produced by subsampling models. Consistent with multiple paleontological studies, the direct tests carried out here for a modern habitat using known bathymetry suggests that multivariate proxies derived from marine benthic associations may serve as a viable proxy of water depth. The general applicability of multivariate paleocommunity data as an indirect proxy of bathymetry is dependent on habitat type, intrinsic ecological characteristics of dominant faunas, taxonomic scope, and spatial and temporal scales of analysis, highlighting the need for continued testing in present-day depositional settings.     

Discovering Associations in Biomedical Datasets by Link-based Associative Classifier (LAC)

Associative classification mining (ACM) can be used to provide predictive models with high accuracy as well as interpretability. However, traditional ACM ignores the difference of significances among the features used for mining. Although weighted associative classification mining (WACM) addresses this issue by assigning different weights to features, most implementations can only be utilized when pre-assigned weights are available. In this paper, we propose a link-based approach to automatically derive weight information from a dataset using link-based models which treat the dataset as a bipartite model. By combining this link-based feature weighting method with a traditional ACM method–classification based on associations (CBA), a Link-based Associative Classifier (LAC) is developed. We then demonstrate the application of LAC to biomedical datasets for association discovery between chemical compounds and bioactivities or diseases. The results indicate that the novel link-based weighting method is comparable to support vector machine (SVM) and RELIEF method, and is capable of capturing significant features. Additionally, LAC is shown to produce models with high accuracies and discover interesting associations which may otherwise remain unrevealed by traditional ACM.     

Network‐based global inference of human disease genes

Deciphering the genetic basis of human diseases is an important goal of biomedical research. On the basis of the assumption that phenotypically similar diseases are caused by functionally related genes, we propose a computational framework that integrates human protein–protein interactions, disease phenotype similarities, and known gene–phenotype associations to capture the complex relationships between phenotypes and genotypes. We develop a tool named CIPHER to predict and prioritize disease genes, and we show that the global concordance between the human protein network and the phenotype network reliably predicts disease genes. Our method is applicable to genetically uncharacterized phenotypes, effective in the genome‐wide scan of disease genes, and also extendable to explore gene cooperativity in complex diseases. The predicted genetic landscape of over 1000 human phenotypes, which reveals the global modular organization of phenotype–genotype relationships. The genome‐wide prioritization of candidate genes for over 5000 human phenotypes, including those with under‐characterized disease loci or even those lacking known association, is publicly released to facilitate future discovery of disease genes.     

An Efficient Stepwise Statistical Test to Identify Multiple Linked Human Genetic Variants Associated with Specific Phenotypic Traits

Recent advances in genotyping methodologies have allowed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to accurately identify genetic variants that associate with common or pathological complex traits. Although most GWAS have focused on associations with single genetic variants, joint identification of multiple genetic variants, and how they interact, is essential for understanding the genetic architecture of complex phenotypic traits. Here, we propose an efficient stepwise method based on the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test (for stratified categorical data) to identify causal joint multiple genetic variants in GWAS. This method combines the CMH statistic with a stepwise procedure to detect multiple genetic variants associated with specific categorical traits, using a series of associated I × J contingency tables and a null hypothesis of no phenotype association. Through a new stratification scheme based on the sum of minor allele count criteria, we make the method more feasible for GWAS data having sample sizes of several thousands. We also examine the properties of the proposed stepwise method via simulation studies, and show that the stepwise CMH test performs better than other existing methods (e.g., logistic regression and detection of associations by Markov blanket) for identifying multiple genetic variants. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to two genomic sequencing datasets to detect linked genetic variants associated with bipolar disorder and obesity, respectively.