Meta-analysis for Discovering Rare-Variant Associations: Statistical Methods and Software Programs

There is heightened interest in using next-generation sequencing technologies to identify rare variants that influence complex human diseases and traits. Meta-analysis is essential to this endeavor because large sample sizes are required for detecting associations with rare variants. In this article, we provide a comprehensive overview of statistical methods for meta-analysis of sequencing studies for discovering rare-variant associations. Specifically, we discuss the calculation of relevant summary statistics from participating studies, the construction of gene-level association tests, the choice of transformation for quantitative traits, the use of fixed-effects versus random-effects models, and the removal of shadow association signals through conditional analysis. We also show that meta-analysis based on properly calculated summary statistics is as powerful as joint analysis of individual-participant data. In addition, we demonstrate the performance of different meta-analysis methods by using both simulated and empirical data. We then compare four major software packages for meta-analysis of rare-variant associations—MASS, RAREMETAL, MetaSKAT, and seqMeta—in terms of the underlying statistical methodology, analysis pipeline, and software interface. Finally, we present PreMeta, a software interface that integrates the four meta-analysis packages and allows a consortium to combine otherwise incompatible summary statistics.     

Reconsidering association testing methods using single-variant test statistics as alternatives to pooling tests for sequence data with rare variants

Association tests that pool minor alleles into a measure of burden at a locus have been proposed for case-control studies using sequence data containing rare variants. However, such pooling tests are not robust to the inclusion of neutral and protective variants, which can mask the association signal from risk variants. Early studies proposing pooling tests dismissed methods for locus-wide inference using nonnegative single-variant test statistics based on unrealistic comparisons. However, such methods are robust to the inclusion of neutral and protective variants and therefore may be more useful than previously appreciated. In fact, some recently proposed methods derived within different frameworks are equivalent to performing inference on weighted sums of squared single-variant score statistics. In this study, we compared two existing methods for locus-wide inference using nonnegative single-variant test statistics to two widely cited pooling tests under more realistic conditions. We established analytic results for a simple model with one rare risk and one rare neutral variant, which demonstrated that pooling tests were less powerful than even Bonferroni-corrected single-variant tests in most realistic situations. We also performed simulations using variants with realistic minor allele frequency and linkage disequilibrium spectra, disease models with multiple rare risk variants and extensive neutral variation, and varying rates of missing genotypes. In all scenarios considered, existing methods using nonnegative single-variant test statistics had power comparable to or greater than two widely cited pooling tests. Moreover, in disease models with only rare risk variants, an existing method based on the maximum single-variant Cochran-Armitage trend chi-square statistic in the locus had power comparable to or greater than another existing method closely related to some recently proposed methods. We conclude that efficient locus-wide inference using single-variant test statistics should be reconsidered as a useful framework for devising powerful association tests in sequence data with rare variants.     

Re-sequencing Expands Our Understanding of the Phenotypic Impact of Variants at GWAS Loci

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified >500 common variants associated with quantitative metabolic traits, but in aggregate such variants explain at most 20–30% of the heritable component of population variation in these traits. To further investigate the impact of genotypic variation on metabolic traits, we conducted re-sequencing studies in >6,000 members of a Finnish population cohort (The Northern Finland Birth Cohort of 1966 [NFBC]) and a type 2 diabetes case-control sample (The Finland-United States Investigation of NIDDM Genetics [FUSION] study). By sequencing the coding sequence and 5′ and 3′ untranslated regions of 78 genes at 17 GWAS loci associated with one or more of six metabolic traits (serum levels of fasting HDL-C, LDL-C, total cholesterol, triglycerides, plasma glucose, and insulin), and conducting both single-variant and gene-level association tests, we obtained a more complete understanding of phenotype-genotype associations at eight of these loci. At all eight of these loci, the identification of new associations provides significant evidence for multiple genetic signals to one or more phenotypes, and at two loci, in the genes ABCA1 and CETP, we found significant gene-level evidence of association to non-synonymous variants with MAF<1%. Additionally, two potentially deleterious variants that demonstrated significant associations (rs138726309, a missense variant in G6PC2, and rs28933094, a missense variant in LIPC) were considerably more common in these Finnish samples than in European reference populations, supporting our prior hypothesis that deleterious variants could attain high frequencies in this isolated population, likely due to the effects of population bottlenecks. Our results highlight the value of large, well-phenotyped samples for rare-variant association analysis, and the challenge of evaluating the phenotypic impact of such variants.     

General Framework for Meta-analysis of Rare Variants in Sequencing Association Studies

We propose a general statistical framework for meta-analysis of gene- or region-based multimarker rare variant association tests in sequencing association studies. In genome-wide association studies, single-marker meta-analysis has been widely used to increase statistical power by combining results via regression coefficients and standard errors from different studies. In analysis of rare variants in sequencing studies, region-based multimarker tests are often used to increase power. We propose meta-analysis methods for commonly used gene- or region-based rare variants tests, such as burden tests and variance component tests. Because estimation of regression coefficients of individual rare variants is often unstable or not feasible, the proposed method avoids this difficulty by calculating score statistics instead that only require fitting the null model for each study and then aggregating these score statistics across studies. Our proposed meta-analysis rare variant association tests are conducted based on study-specific summary statistics, specifically score statistics for each variant and between-variant covariance-type (linkage disequilibrium) relationship statistics for each gene or region. The proposed methods are able to incorporate different levels of heterogeneity of genetic effects across studies and are applicable to meta-analysis of multiple ancestry groups. We show that the proposed methods are essentially as powerful as joint analysis by directly pooling individual level genotype data. We conduct extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of our methods by varying levels of heterogeneity across studies, and we apply the proposed methods to meta-analysis of rare variant effects in a multicohort study of the genetics of blood lipid levels.     

Targeted exon sequencing fails to identify rare coding variants with large effect in rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction

Although it has been suggested that rare coding variants could explain the substantial missing heritability, very few sequencing studies have been performed in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We aimed to identify novel functional variants with rare to low frequency using targeted exon sequencing of RA in Korea.

Methods

We analyzed targeted exon sequencing data of 398 genes selected from a multifaceted approach in Korean RA patients (n = 1,217) and controls (n = 717). We conducted a single-marker association test and a gene-based analysis of rare variants. For meta-analysis or enrichment tests, we also used ethnically matched independent samples of Korean genome-wide association studies (GWAS) (n = 4,799) or immunochip data (n = 4,722).

Results

After stringent quality control, we analyzed 10,588 variants of 398 genes from 1,934 Korean RA case controls. We identified 13 nonsynonymous variants with nominal association in single-variant association tests. In a meta-analysis, we did not find any novel variant with genome-wide significance for RA risk. Using a gene-based approach, we identified 17 genes with nominal burden signals. Among them, VSTM1 showed the greatest association with RA (P = 7.80 × 10⁻⁴). In the enrichment test using Korean GWAS, although the significant signal appeared to be driven by total genic variants, we found no evidence for enriched association of coding variants only with RA.

Conclusions

We were unable to identify rare coding variants with large effect to explain the missing heritability for RA in the current targeted resequencing study. Our study raises skepticism about exon sequencing of targeted genes for complex diseases like RA.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13075-014-0447-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Integrating comprehensive functional annotations to boost power and accuracy in gene-based association analysis

Gene-based association tests aggregate genotypes across multiple variants for each gene, providing an interpretable gene-level analysis framework for genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Early gene-based test applications often focused on rare coding variants; a more recent wave of gene-based methods, e.g. TWAS, use eQTLs to interrogate regulatory associations. Regulatory variants are expected to be particularly valuable for gene-based analysis, since most GWAS associations to date are non-coding. However, identifying causal genes from regulatory associations remains challenging and contentious. Here, we present a statistical framework and computational tool to integrate heterogeneous annotations with GWAS summary statistics for gene-based analysis, applied with comprehensive coding and tissue-specific regulatory annotations. We compare power and accuracy identifying causal genes across single-annotation, omnibus, and annotation-agnostic gene-based tests in simulation studies and an analysis of 128 traits from the UK Biobank, and find that incorporating heterogeneous annotations in gene-based association analysis increases power and performance identifying causal genes.     

Rare Variants Association Analysis in Large-Scale Sequencing Studies at the Single Locus Level

Genetic association analyses of rare variants in next-generation sequencing (NGS) studies are fundamentally challenging due to the presence of a very large number of candidate variants at extremely low minor allele frequencies. Recent developments often focus on pooling multiple variants to provide association analysis at the gene instead of the locus level. Nonetheless, pinpointing individual variants is a critical goal for genomic researches as such information can facilitate the precise delineation of molecular mechanisms and functions of genetic factors on diseases. Due to the extreme rarity of mutations and high-dimensionality, significances of causal variants cannot easily stand out from those of noncausal ones. Consequently, standard false-positive control procedures, such as the Bonferroni and false discovery rate (FDR), are often impractical to apply, as a majority of the causal variants can only be identified along with a few but unknown number of noncausal variants. To provide informative analysis of individual variants in large-scale sequencing studies, we propose the Adaptive False-Negative Control (AFNC) procedure that can include a large proportion of causal variants with high confidence by introducing a novel statistical inquiry to determine those variants that can be confidently dispatched as noncausal. The AFNC provides a general framework that can accommodate for a variety of models and significance tests. The procedure is computationally efficient and can adapt to the underlying proportion of causal variants and quality of significance rankings. Extensive simulation studies across a plethora of scenarios demonstrate that the AFNC is advantageous for identifying individual rare variants, whereas the Bonferroni and FDR are exceedingly over-conservative for rare variants association studies. In the analyses of the CoLaus dataset, AFNC has identified individual variants most responsible for gene-level significances. Moreover, single-variant results using the AFNC have been successfully applied to infer related genes with annotation information.     

Gene Level Meta-Analysis of Quantitative Traits by Functional Linear Models

Meta-analysis of genetic data must account for differences among studies including study designs, markers genotyped, and covariates. The effects of genetic variants may differ from population to population, i.e., heterogeneity. Thus, meta-analysis of combining data of multiple studies is difficult. Novel statistical methods for meta-analysis are needed. In this article, functional linear models are developed for meta-analyses that connect genetic data to quantitative traits, adjusting for covariates. The models can be used to analyze rare variants, common variants, or a combination of the two. Both likelihood-ratio test (LRT) and F-distributed statistics are introduced to test association between quantitative traits and multiple variants in one genetic region. Extensive simulations are performed to evaluate empirical type I error rates and power performance of the proposed tests. The proposed LRT and F-distributed statistics control the type I error very well and have higher power than the existing methods of the meta-analysis sequence kernel association test (MetaSKAT). We analyze four blood lipid levels in data from a meta-analysis of eight European studies. The proposed methods detect more significant associations than MetaSKAT and the P-values of the proposed LRT and F-distributed statistics are usually much smaller than those of MetaSKAT. The functional linear models and related test statistics can be useful in whole-genome and whole-exome association studies.     

Family-based association studies for next-generation sequencing

An individual's disease risk is determined by the compounded action of both common variants, inherited from remote ancestors, that segregated within the population and rare variants, inherited from recent ancestors, that segregated mainly within pedigrees. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies generate high-dimensional data that allow a nearly complete evaluation of genetic variation. Despite their promise, NGS technologies also suffer from remarkable limitations: high error rates, enrichment of rare variants, and a large proportion of missing values, as well as the fact that most current analytical methods are designed for population-based association studies. To meet the analytical challenges raised by NGS, we propose a general framework for sequence-based association studies that can use various types of family and unrelated-individual data sampled from any population structure and a universal procedure that can transform any population-based association test statistic for use in family-based association tests. We develop family-based functional principal-component analysis (FPCA) with or without smoothing, a generalized T(2), combined multivariate and collapsing (CMC) method, and single-marker association test statistics. Through intensive simulations, we demonstrate that the family-based smoothed FPCA (SFPCA) has the correct type I error rates and much more power to detect association of (1) common variants, (2) rare variants, (3) both common and rare variants, and (4) variants with opposite directions of effect from other population-based or family-based association analysis methods. The proposed statistics are applied to two data sets with pedigree structures. The results show that the smoothed FPCA has a much smaller p value than other statistics.     

Variant Association Tools for Quality Control and Analysis of Large-Scale Sequence and Genotyping Array Data

Currently there is great interest in detecting associations between complex traits and rare variants. In this report, we describe Variant Association Tools (VAT) and the VAT pipeline, which implements best practices for rare-variant association studies. Highlights of VAT include variant-site and call-level quality control (QC), summary statistics, phenotype- and genotype-based sample selection, variant annotation, selection of variants for association analysis, and a collection of rare-variant association methods for analyzing qualitative and quantitative traits. The association testing framework for VAT is regression based, which readily allows for flexible construction of association models with multiple covariates and weighting themes based on allele frequencies or predicted functionality. Additionally, pathway analyses, conditional analyses, and analyses of gene-gene and gene-environment interactions can be performed. VAT is capable of rapidly scanning through data by using multi-process computation, adaptive permutation, and simultaneously conducting association analysis via multiple methods. Results are available in text or graphic file formats and additionally can be output to relational databases for further annotation and filtering. An interface to R language also facilitates user implementation of novel association methods. The VAT''s data QC and association-analysis pipeline can be applied to sequence, imputed, and genotyping array, e.g., “exome chip,” data, providing a reliable and reproducible computational environment in which to analyze small- to large-scale studies with data from the latest genotyping and sequencing technologies. Application of the VAT pipeline is demonstrated through analysis of data from the 1000 Genomes project.     

Identifying causal variants by fine mapping across multiple studies

Increasingly large Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) have yielded numerous variants associated with many complex traits, motivating the development of “fine mapping” methods to identify which of the associated variants are causal. Additionally, GWAS of the same trait for different populations are increasingly available, raising the possibility of refining fine mapping results further by leveraging different linkage disequilibrium (LD) structures across studies. Here, we introduce multiple study causal variants identification in associated regions (MsCAVIAR), a method that extends the popular CAVIAR fine mapping framework to a multiple study setting using a random effects model. MsCAVIAR only requires summary statistics and LD as input, accounts for uncertainty in association statistics using a multivariate normal model, allows for multiple causal variants at a locus, and explicitly models the possibility of different SNP effect sizes in different populations. We demonstrate the efficacy of MsCAVIAR in both a simulation study and a trans-ethnic, trans-biobank fine mapping analysis of High Density Lipoprotein (HDL).     

A Novel Test for Recessive Contributions to Complex Diseases Implicates Bardet-Biedl Syndrome Gene BBS10 in Idiopathic Type 2 Diabetes and Obesity

Rare-variant association studies in common, complex diseases are customarily conducted under an additive risk model in both single-variant and burden testing. Here, we describe a method to improve detection of rare recessive variants in complex diseases termed RAFT (recessive-allele-frequency-based test). We found that RAFT outperforms existing approaches when the variant influences disease risk in a recessive manner on simulated data. We then applied our method to 1,791 Finnish individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and 2,657 matched control subjects. In BBS10, we discovered a rare variant (c.1189A>G [p.Ile397Val]; rs202042386) that confers risk of T2D in a recessive state (p = 1.38 × 10⁻⁶) and would be missed by conventional methods. Testing of this variant in an established in vivo zebrafish model confirmed the variant to be pathogenic. Taken together, these data suggest that RAFT can effectively reveal rare recessive contributions to complex diseases overlooked by conventional association tests.     

Analysis of Rare,Exonic Variation amongst Subjects with Autism Spectrum Disorders and Population Controls

We report on results from whole-exome sequencing (WES) of 1,039 subjects diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and 870 controls selected from the NIMH repository to be of similar ancestry to cases. The WES data came from two centers using different methods to produce sequence and to call variants from it. Therefore, an initial goal was to ensure the distribution of rare variation was similar for data from different centers. This proved straightforward by filtering called variants by fraction of missing data, read depth, and balance of alternative to reference reads. Results were evaluated using seven samples sequenced at both centers and by results from the association study. Next we addressed how the data and/or results from the centers should be combined. Gene-based analyses of association was an obvious choice, but should statistics for association be combined across centers (meta-analysis) or should data be combined and then analyzed (mega-analysis)? Because of the nature of many gene-based tests, we showed by theory and simulations that mega-analysis has better power than meta-analysis. Finally, before analyzing the data for association, we explored the impact of population structure on rare variant analysis in these data. Like other recent studies, we found evidence that population structure can confound case-control studies by the clustering of rare variants in ancestry space; yet, unlike some recent studies, for these data we found that principal component-based analyses were sufficient to control for ancestry and produce test statistics with appropriate distributions. After using a variety of gene-based tests and both meta- and mega-analysis, we found no new risk genes for ASD in this sample. Our results suggest that standard gene-based tests will require much larger samples of cases and controls before being effective for gene discovery, even for a disorder like ASD.     

A novel genome-information content-based statistic for genome-wide association analysis designed for next-generation sequencing data

The genome-wide association studies (GWAS) designed for next-generation sequencing data involve testing association of genomic variants, including common, low frequency, and rare variants. The current strategies for association studies are well developed for identifying association of common variants with the common diseases, but may be ill-suited when large amounts of allelic heterogeneity are present in sequence data. Recently, group tests that analyze their collective frequency differences between cases and controls shift the current variant-by-variant analysis paradigm for GWAS of common variants to the collective test of multiple variants in the association analysis of rare variants. However, group tests ignore differences in genetic effects among SNPs at different genomic locations. As an alternative to group tests, we developed a novel genome-information content-based statistics for testing association of the entire allele frequency spectrum of genomic variation with the diseases. To evaluate the performance of the proposed statistics, we use large-scale simulations based on whole genome low coverage pilot data in the 1000 Genomes Project to calculate the type 1 error rates and power of seven alternative statistics: a genome-information content-based statistic, the generalized T(2), collapsing method, multivariate and collapsing (CMC) method, individual χ(2) test, weighted-sum statistic, and variable threshold statistic. Finally, we apply the seven statistics to published resequencing dataset from ANGPTL3, ANGPTL4, ANGPTL5, and ANGPTL6 genes in the Dallas Heart Study. We report that the genome-information content-based statistic has significantly improved type 1 error rates and higher power than the other six statistics in both simulated and empirical datasets.     

Estimating Genetic Effects and Quantifying Missing Heritability Explained by Identified Rare-Variant Associations

Next-generation sequencing has led to many complex-trait rare-variant (RV) association studies. Although single-variant association analysis can be performed, it is grossly underpowered. Therefore, researchers have developed many RV association tests that aggregate multiple variant sites across a genetic region (e.g., gene), and test for the association between the trait and the aggregated genotype. After these aggregate tests detect an association, it is only possible to estimate the average genetic effect for a group of RVs. As a result of the "winner’s curse," such an estimate can be biased. Although for common variants one can obtain unbiased estimates of genetic parameters by analyzing a replication sample, for RVs it is desirable to obtain unbiased genetic estimates for the study where the association is identified. This is because there can be substantial heterogeneity of RV sites and frequencies even among closely related populations. In order to obtain an unbiased estimate for aggregated RV analysis, we developed bootstrap-sample-split algorithms to reduce the bias of the winner’s curse. The unbiased estimates are greatly important for understanding the population-specific contribution of RVs to the heritability of complex traits. We also demonstrate both theoretically and via simulations that for aggregate RV analysis the genetic variance for a gene or region will always be underestimated, sometimes substantially, because of the presence of noncausal variants or because of the presence of causal variants with effects of different magnitudes or directions. Therefore, even if RVs play a major role in the complex-trait etiologies, a portion of the heritability will remain missing, and the contribution of RVs to the complex-trait etiologies will be underestimated.     

Blocking Approach for Identification of Rare Variants in Family-Based Association Studies

With the advent of next-generation sequencing technology, rare variant association analysis is increasingly being conducted to identify genetic variants associated with complex traits. In recent years, significant effort has been devoted to develop powerful statistical methods to test such associations for population-based designs. However, there has been relatively little development for family-based designs although family data have been shown to be more powerful to detect rare variants. This study introduces a blocking approach that extends two popular family-based common variant association tests to rare variants association studies. Several options are considered to partition a genomic region (gene) into “independent” blocks by which information from SNVs is aggregated within a block and an overall test statistic for the entire genomic region is calculated by combining information across these blocks. The proposed methodology allows different variants to have different directions (risk or protective) and specification of minor allele frequency threshold is not needed. We carried out a simulation to verify the validity of the method by showing that type I error is well under control when the underlying null hypothesis and the assumption of independence across blocks are satisfied. Further, data from the Genetic Analysis Workshop are utilized to illustrate the feasibility and performance of the proposed methodology in a realistic setting.     

A general framework for detecting disease associations with rare variants in sequencing studies

Biological and empirical evidence suggests that rare variants account for a large proportion of the genetic contributions to complex human diseases. Recent technological advances in high-throughput sequencing platforms have made it possible for researchers to generate comprehensive information on rare variants in large samples. We provide a general framework for association testing with rare variants by combining mutation information across multiple variant sites within a gene and relating the enriched genetic information to disease phenotypes through appropriate regression models. Our framework covers all major study designs (i.e., case-control, cross-sectional, cohort and family studies) and all common phenotypes (e.g., binary, quantitative, and age at onset), and it allows arbitrary covariates (e.g., environmental factors and ancestry variables). We derive theoretically optimal procedures for combining rare mutations and construct suitable test statistics for various biological scenarios. The allele-frequency threshold can be fixed or variable. The effects of the combined rare mutations on the phenotype can be in the same direction or different directions. The proposed methods are statistically more powerful and computationally more efficient than existing ones. An application to a deep-resequencing study of drug targets led to a discovery of rare variants associated with total cholesterol. The relevant software is freely available.     

A powerful test for multiple rare variants association studies that incorporates sequencing qualities

Next-generation sequencing data will soon become routinely available for association studies between complex traits and rare variants. Sequencing data, however, are characterized by the presence of sequencing errors at each individual genotype. This makes it especially challenging to perform association studies of rare variants, which, due to their low minor allele frequencies, can be easily perturbed by genotype errors. In this article, we develop the quality-weighted multivariate score association test (qMSAT), a new procedure that allows powerful association tests between complex traits and multiple rare variants under the presence of sequencing errors. Simulation results based on quality scores from real data show that the qMSAT often dominates over current methods, that do not utilize quality information. In particular, the qMSAT can dramatically increase power over existing methods under moderate sample sizes and relatively low coverage. Moreover, in an obesity data study, we identified using the qMSAT two functional regions (MGLL promoter and MGLL 3'-untranslated region) where rare variants are associated with extreme obesity. Due to the high cost of sequencing data, the qMSAT is especially valuable for large-scale studies involving rare variants, as it can potentially increase power without additional experimental cost. qMSAT is freely available at http://qmsat.sourceforge.net/.     

Simulation of Finnish Population History,Guided by Empirical Genetic Data,to Assess Power of Rare-Variant Tests in Finland

Finnish samples have been extensively utilized in studying single-gene disorders, where the founder effect has clearly aided in discovery, and more recently in genome-wide association studies of complex traits, where the founder effect has had less obvious impacts. As the field starts to explore rare variants’ contribution to polygenic traits, it is of great importance to characterize and confirm the Finnish founder effect in sequencing data and to assess its implications for rare-variant association studies. Here, we employ forward simulation, guided by empirical deep resequencing data, to model the genetic architecture of quantitative polygenic traits in both the general European and the Finnish populations simultaneously. We demonstrate that power of rare-variant association tests is higher in the Finnish population, especially when variants’ phenotypic effects are tightly coupled with fitness effects and therefore reflect a greater contribution of rarer variants. SKAT-O, variable-threshold tests, and single-variant tests are more powerful than other rare-variant methods in the Finnish population across a range of genetic models. We also compare the relative power and efficiency of exome array genotyping to those of high-coverage exome sequencing. At a fixed cost, less expensive genotyping strategies have far greater power than sequencing; in a fixed number of samples, however, genotyping arrays miss a substantial portion of genetic signals detected in sequencing, even in the Finnish founder population. As genetic studies probe sequence variation at greater depth in more diverse populations, our simulation approach provides a framework for evaluating various study designs for gene discovery.