基于牧户感知和野外调查相结合的内蒙古东部草甸草原健康评价

治理草原退化是我国草原管理的重点和难点。我国目前关于草原退化判断、退化程度、原因及治理等系列问题的确定几乎皆以科学研究结果为依据,而忽视了牧户作为草原直接使用者和管理者的重要性。牧户对草原有自己的判断和认知,其与科学方法研究之间的矛盾已经影响到草原生态保护政策的有效实施。以内蒙古东部草甸草原牧户尺度草原为研究对象,借助牧户调研和野外调查相结合的方法,将牧户划分为高、中、低3个经济水平,并运用Condition-Vigor-Organization-Resilience (CVOR)指数评价法,分析评价草原生态系统健康状况。研究结果显示,牧户对草原健康状况的感知主要从植被、土壤、牲畜等方面,与科学方法评价指标选取具有相似性;牧户感知和CVOR指数法评价结果具有一致性,均判定草原生态系统呈现不同程度退化;统计检验显示牧户对植被、土壤、牲畜影响等指标变化感知方面均不存在显著差异(P0.05),CVOR指数法下不同经济水平牧户草场健康指数之间亦无显著差异(P0.05),两种方法均显示不同经济水平牧户草场退化程度无显著差异(P0.05)。研究证实了牧户感知在指标选取、评价结果方面具备用于准确评价草原健康状况的可行性和可信度。两种方法相互补充,将有利于更加准确、实时动态监测和评价牧户尺度草原生态健康状况,为调整优化畜牧业生产实践提供指导和草原生态保护和建设政策的有效实施提供保障。     

基于牧户感知和野外调查相结合的内蒙古东部草甸草原健康评价

治理草原退化是我国草原管理的重点和难点。我国目前关于草原退化判断、退化程度、原因及治理等系列问题的确定几乎皆以科学研究结果为依据,而忽视了牧户作为草原直接使用者和管理者的重要性。牧户对草原有自己的判断和认知,其与科学方法研究之间的矛盾已经影响到草原生态保护政策的有效实施。本研究以内蒙古东部草甸草原牧户尺度草原为研究对象,借助牧户调研和野外调查相结合的方法,将牧户划分为高、中、低3个经济水平,并运用Condition-Vigor-Organization-Resilience(CVOR)指数评价法,分析评价草原生态系统健康状况。研究结果显示,牧户对草原健康状况的感知主要从植被、土壤、牲畜等方面,与科学方法评价指标选取具有相似性;牧户感知和CVOR指数法评价结果具有一致性,均判定草原生态系统呈现不同程度退化;统计检验显示牧户对植被、土壤、牲畜影响等指标变化感知方面均不存在显著差异(P0.05),CVOR指数法下不同经济水平牧户草场健康指数之间亦无显著差异(P0.05),两种方法均显示不同经济水平牧户草场退化程度无显著差异(P0.05)。研究证实了牧户感知在指标选取、评价结果方面具备用于准确评价草原健康状况的可行性和可信度。两种方法相互补充,将有利于更加准确、实时动态监测和评价牧户尺度草原生态健康状况,为调整优化畜牧业生产实践提供指导和草原生态保护和建设政策的有效实施提供保障。     

浅谈西藏草地畜牧业的保护与可持续发展

西藏是我国传统五大牧区之一,但其畜牧业基础设施建设较差,生产经营方式滞后,草地资源受到破坏,导致生态失衡,使得天然草原退化、荒漠化、极大地降低了载畜能力。因此合理保护草场资源,实现天然草原的永续利用和可持续发展,走畜牧业集约化道路已迫在眉睫。     

牧户的草原生态补偿政策满意度与支持度——基于CSI框架和SEM的检验

从生计和生态双重维度探究牧户的草原生态补偿政策满意度与支持度,对于深化草原生态补偿制度改革,促进草原生态文明建设和牧区绿色发展,具有重要的理论与现实意义。基于马克思“生态经济人”预设的微观视角,以费耐尔满意度逻辑模型(CSI)为理论框架,使用2020年若尔盖草原574个牧户调研数据,通过反映性指标的结构方程模型(SEM),对牧户草原生态补偿政策满意度和支持度的因果机制进行了多变量、多路径的验证性分析。结果表明：(1)牧户对生计收入和生态质量越重视、“生态经济人”理性越高,其政策满意度就越高,生态保护的心理主动性也越大,相对效应大小=0.271。(2)牧户对政策实施结果的质量评价,是牧户政策满意度和支持度的主要影响因素,相对效应大小=0.518。(3)牧户对政策实施效果的价值感知,将会直接提升其政策满意度,并进一步促进其生态保护理性,相对效应大小=0.312。因此,提高牧户对草原生态补偿政策的满意度与支持度,应重点从三个维度综合施策：首先,应重视发展草原生态文化,培育牧户生态经济理性。其次,要稳步提升生态补偿标准,加强草原保护的工作力量,提升政策实施结果的质量。最后,草原生态补偿要重点加...     

内蒙古草原草场放牧退化模式研究及退化监测专家系统雏议

本文将定位研究与路线考察相结合,将放牧影响下草原的动态演替及其在牧压梯度上的空间变化相对比,研究了内蒙古主要草原草场的放牧退化模式,并在此基础上初步探讨了判别草场退化的数量指标和退化监测专家系统。1)植物种与牧压关系的分析,区别出放牧的定性和定量指示植物及宜中牧植物,并划分植物为不同的放牧生态种组。2)退化草原恢复过程的研究表明,根茎禾草的恢复快于丛生禾草;群落恢复过程是单稳态的,且恢复演替动态与其牧压梯度上的空间变化相对应。3)内蒙古高原主要草原草场在持续放牧影响下均趋同于冷蒿(Artemisia frigida)草原。冷蒿是最可靠的正定量放牧指示植物,但同时又是优良牧草和草原退化的阻击者。4)讨论了草原草场退化的概念,论述了草原逆向演替与草场退化的区别和联系,提出了区分草原的逆向演替为草场熟化和退化两个过程,并依草场群落与牧压的关系建立了判定草场是否退化及退化程度的数量指标。5)初步设计了草原草场退化监测—决策专家系统,包括监测、判别和决策三个步骤。     

天山北坡家庭牧场复合系统对极端气候的响应过程

在草原牧区,家庭牧场作为取代游牧制度而产生的新生事物,其对极端气候响应过程的研究尚未见报道.以“极端气候敏感性-影响途径-响应方式”为分析框架,基于问卷调查方法,研究了天山北坡山地草原牧民对极端气候的响应过程.结果表明:1)天山北坡1980-2009年冬季雪灾、秋季旱灾风险趋于增大,家庭牧场草料储备不足、畜种结构经济驱动型增加了对极端气候的敏感性;2)旱灾、雪灾是影响家庭牧场的主要极端气候类型,其作用介质为牲畜和草场;3)自适应与外力适应是牧户响应极端气候的2种主要形式,其中购买草料是最主要的响应策略;4)通过Probit模型估计显示,极端气候认知、家庭特征、资产状况与牧户间适应行为选择有显著的关系.研究认为,家庭牧场对极端气候短期响应的反馈过程主要围绕草、畜2因子展开,基于降水波动的周期性,牧户长期响应形成了家庭牧场生产周期.     

啮齿动物在草原生态系统中的作用与科学管理

在概述草原啮齿动物群落的功能群及其过牧演替规律基础上,针对退化-鼠害草场的管理提出草-畜-鼠协同调控策略的控害原理及实施要点.运用草原生态系统原理.探索可同步整合无公害持续控制和整体效益目标的生态学途径,应作为发展草原鼠害管理策略和技术的主导方向.     

内蒙古典型草原优化放牧管理模拟研究——以内蒙古太仆寺旗为例

针对太仆寺旗公共草地全年连续放牧的传统放牧方式,通过控制性试验,并结合太仆寺旗多年的草地、家畜、经济和气象等数据,建立中国西部草地生态经济模型,对太仆寺旗典型草原公共放牧系统进行模拟分析。以草原生态恢复和牧民收入增加为目的,对典型草原的最适载畜率、家畜在冬春季节的合理补饲等问题进行探讨,提出了典型草原放牧管理优化模式。研究结果表明,从当年10月到翌年5月份,家畜能量需求与放牧、补饲能量供给严重不平衡,家畜体重下降;随着载畜率的增加,牧民年均净收入先增加后降低,在载畜率为2.275羊单位/hm2时,收入达到最高;太仆寺旗最适载畜率为每公顷1.55-2.275羊单位。降低载畜率、加强补饲、提高草地质量都有利于提高牧民收入。     

内蒙古荒漠草原牧户对气候变化的感知和适应

荒漠草原是气候变化影响的脆弱和敏感地区.荒漠草原的牧户主要依赖天然草原维持生计,正面临着严峻的气候变化挑战.本文采用问卷调查的实证分析方法,在获取内蒙古苏尼特右旗荒漠草原牧户对气候变化和极端气候事件感知和适应的第一手资料基础上,分析了荒漠草原牧户对气候变化趋势和极端气候事件感知和适应的现状与行为特征.结果表明:在降水稀少、气象灾害频繁发生的荒漠草原,干旱是影响范围最广、影响程度最深、发生频率最高的极端气候事件;牧户不仅对干旱的敏感度远高于其他极端气候事件,而且对大风、沙尘暴和大雪等极端气候事件的深刻感知伴随着对干旱的感知而产生;相对于长期气候变化的感知,牧户对短期气候变化趋势的感知更深刻、准确,并主要依据近10年气候变化的感知结果来判断较长期气候变化的总体趋势;牧户认为,气候变化在很大程度上影响了牲畜健康和草场产量,但牧户应对气候变化的行为相对单一,且多为自发性被动适应,缺乏行之有效的主动适应.     

三江源牧户参与草地生态保护的意愿

牧民对环境保护的响应是生态保护战略有效实施的关键,主体参与意愿直接影响生态保护项目实施的成效和可持续性,是区域生态经济可持续发展的前提。通过对三江源地区约283户藏族牧民通过翻译进行结构式访谈,采用Logistic模型从主体角度探讨了牧户愿意参与生态保护行为响应的主要影响因素。结果表明:(1)三江源区域约87%的牧户认为生态保护对牧户有好处,但受各种内外部因素的影响只有近70%的牧户是在政府主导下基于有限理性而被动的参与生态保护行为响应。(2)三江源牧户参与生态保护行为响应的意愿主要受当地政府的保护力度及牧户对生态保护外部性的认知水平、生计水平、外界接触程度、工作机会的正影响,并受牧户的年龄、离中心城镇的距离和区域气候恶劣情况等因素的负影响,系数依次为:2.22、3.98、1.93、2.26、1.48、-1.63、-2.43、-0.92。(3)牧户的生计水平、退化感知和外部性认知是影响三江源牧户参与生态保护意愿的关键因素,牧户参与生态保护意愿的概率不仅仅是牧户出于自身利益和未知风险考虑下被动的响应,更是当地政府的环境知识宣传和保护投入影响下个体的抉择结果。(4)创造更多的就业机会和解决牧户的单一化生计问题,构建完善地生态补偿机制让牧户分享生态保护的外部性效益,并激励牧户主动参与生态保护行为响应,才能最终实现区域生态保护、牧户幸福和生态经济可持续发展的多赢局面。     

牧民对草地可持续利用的生态认知水平及其影响因素——以黄河源区5个县为例

牧民对草地可持续利用认知水平很大程度上影响了当地土地的利用状况,进而影响牧民保护草地行为的产生。基于黄河源区（玛多、玛沁、班玛、达日、甘德）的入户调查数据,在分析牧民生计方式和草地退化认知特征的基础上,运用Tobit模型探究影响牧民对草地退化生态认知的主要因素。研究结果表明：（1）黄河源区88%的牧民认为近5年草地出现了不同程度的退化,与学术界普遍认同的观点相一致;（2）联户放牧、子女受教育程度、新技术培训、牲畜养殖规模等对牧民关于草地退化的认知有正向引导作用;（3）户年均收入、国家草原奖补对牧民关于草地退化的认知有负向作用。为有效解决黄河源区牧民对草地的严重依赖性和源区内产业结构单一的问题,应（1）加强牧民专业技能培训、提升草原牧民整体文化水平;（2）鼓励中小牧民参与联户经营;（3）优化牧户生计方式,改善生计策略,减小牧民对草地的依赖程度,实现社会-生态系统的可持续发展。     

基于草地生态系统服务认知的牧民生计选择——以新疆喀拉峻天山世界自然遗产地为例

牧民对草地生态系统服务的重要性认知成为推动牧区生态环境保护以及牧民生计可持续发展的重要前提。以喀拉峻180份牧户实地调研数据为基础，在分析牧民对草地生态系统服务的认知程度和生计选择的基础上，运用灰色关联分析探究生态认知与生计选择的总体关联性，并采用多元Logistic模型探究生态系统服务认知对生计选择的具体影响。结果显示：（1）生态系统服务认知水平依次为调节服务（79.83%） > 支持服务（78.21%） > 文化服务（77.06%），且对气体调节的认知度最高（82.67%），对科研教育的认知度最低（72.11%）；（2）生态系统服务认知与生计选择的总体关联度均在0.47以上，处于中等关联水平；3）生态系统服务认知对选择旅游畜牧兼业生计影响相对显著，其中气体调节和土壤保持正向影响旅游畜牧兼业生计选择，而废物处理对其产生负向影响。     

牧民对草地生态补偿政策的满意度实证研究

实施草地生态补偿政策是恢复退化草地、建设生态安全屏障、提高牧民生活水平,促进牧区社会经济发展的重要手段。研究牧民对草地生态补偿政策的满意度及其影响因素,对完善我国草地生态补偿政策,提高补偿绩效具有重要意义。选取甘肃牧区中甘南、肃南和天祝三地500户牧民作为样本数据,结合问卷调查与深度访谈,构建有序Logit模型,从牧民一般社会经济特征、对其居住与放牧地区生态环境评估,以及对生活满意度评估三方面入手研究了牧民对草地生态补偿政策实施的满意度及其影响因素。结果表明,影响牧民对补偿政策满意度的显著因素包括牧民受教育水平、牲畜养殖数量与体重变化情况、补偿金额、牧民对环境与经济重要性的评估,以及对社会福利满意度的主观评价。从政策角度看,提高牧民受教育水平,改变牧民传统放牧观念;改善贫困牧民生活水平,提高牧民社会福利;优化补偿方式,构建补偿政策监管体系,有利于草地生态补偿政策的进一步完善与有效实施。     

三江源国家公园长江源园区人熊冲突现状与牧民态度认知研究

大型哺乳动物肇事导致人类与野生动物之间的关系恶化,报复性猎杀严重威胁到野生动物的生存。三江源国家公园内人熊冲突问题严重,棕熊肇事不断突破了当地牧民的容忍度,严重影响其保护的积极性,了解人熊冲突现状和牧民态度认知对于制定和实施有效的防熊措施至关重要。通过分析2014年1月—2017年12月三江源国家公园长江源园区内上报的296起棕熊肇事案件,同时结合半结构式访谈法对71户牧民进行访谈,以期了解该地区人熊冲突现状和牧民对棕熊的态度认知。研究结果表明:(1)棕熊主要肇事类型为入侵房屋,同时也捕食少量牲畜,以绵羊和山羊为主;(2)每年6—8月为人熊冲突高发期,8—10月为案件上报高峰期;(3)年纪较小和经历过棕熊肇事的受访者对棕熊的态度更为消极;(4)多数受访者认为过去10年里棕熊种群数量有所增加,其主要原因是新枪支政策的执行;(5)大部分受访者在防熊措施选择偏好上较为保守,认为修筑水泥墙和找人看守是保护财产最有效的两种途径。建议地方政府完善当前野生动物肇事补偿制度,促进利益相关者参与人熊冲突管理过程;提升电围栏防控技术,选择合适地点建立棕熊补饲站;为了保护人身安全,允许牧民在一定范围内合法使用防熊喷雾;未来应加强牧民生产生活方式的改变与棕熊行为之间关系的研究。     

Human Wagering Behavior Depends on Opponents' Faces

Research in competitive games has exclusively focused on how opponent models are developed through previous outcomes and how peoples'' decisions relate to normative predictions. Little is known about how rapid impressions of opponents operate and influence behavior in competitive economic situations, although such subjective impressions have been shown to influence cooperative decision-making. This study investigates whether an opponent''s face influences players'' wagering decisions in a zero-sum game with hidden information. Participants made risky choices in a simplified poker task while being presented opponents whose faces differentially correlated with subjective impressions of trust. Surprisingly, we find that threatening face information has little influence on wagering behavior, but faces relaying positive emotional characteristics impact peoples'' decisions. Thus, people took significantly longer and made more mistakes against emotionally positive opponents. Differences in reaction times and percent correct were greatest around the optimal decision boundary, indicating that face information is predominantly used when making decisions during medium-value gambles. Mistakes against emotionally positive opponents resulted from increased folding rates, suggesting that participants may have believed that these opponents were betting with hands of greater value than other opponents. According to these results, the best “poker face” for bluffing may not be a neutral face, but rather a face that contains emotional correlates of trustworthiness. Moreover, it suggests that rapid impressions of an opponent play an important role in competitive games, especially when people have little or no experience with an opponent.     

Influencing factors of the grassland ecological compensation policy to herdsmen's behavioral response: An empirical study in Hexi corridor

Ecological protection of grassland is an important part of the construction of ecological civilization in China. Grassland ecological compensation and reward policy is an important policy for grassland ecological protection in China. As the main participants in the grassland ecological compensation and reward policy, herders' behavioral response largely affects the effect of policy implementation. In this study, 550 herders in two regions with different compensation standards were selected as samples, and the comparative analysis of herdsmen's response to policy behavior and influence factors was carried out. The results showed that the grassland area owned by herders, ethnic group and perception of policies were important factors to affect the response of herdsmen's behavior in the two regions, but larger differences existed in the two regions. The grassland area and family size owned by herders are important factors that affect the response of herdsmen's behavior in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; However, the ethnic group, the understanding of policy and family income are the important factors in the western desert area.     

Neural signatures of betrayal aversion: an fMRI study of trust

Decisions are said to be ‘risky’ when they are made in environments with uncertainty caused by nature. By contrast, a decision is said to be ‘trusting’ when its outcome depends on the uncertain decisions of another person. A rapidly expanding literature reveals economically important differences between risky and trusting decisions, and further suggests these differences are due to ‘betrayal aversion’. While its neural foundations have not been previously illuminated, the prevailing hypothesis is that betrayal aversion stems from a desire to avoid negative emotions that arise from learning one''s trust was betrayed. Here, we provide evidence from an fMRI study that supports this hypothesis. In particular, our data indicate that the anterior insula modulates trusting decisions that involve the possibility of betrayal.     

The role of fear in modern societies: Our ancient fear response to new situations is not always helpful in a civilised society

The COVID‐19 pandemic highlights how our ancient fear response can be exploited for nefarious purposes with social media lending a helping hand. Subject Categories: S&S: Economics & Business, Ecology, Microbiology, Virology & Host Pathogen Interaction

The COVID‐19 pandemic has underscored more than any previous crisis how fear can be exploited by multiple actors from outright conspiracy theorists with pernicious agendas to governments seeking to maximise public compliance with lockdowns and social distancing. The crisis has also given new urgency to the debate over how to handle fake news and its rapid propagation over social media, as well as the part science should play in leading and supporting governments'' decisions.At a fundamental level, the pandemic has highlighted the balance evolution has struck between fear and its aversion, between risk taking and risk avoidance. Indeed, for many animals, fear is necessary to avoid predation or accidental death, but it must be kept in check to avoid starvation by never setting out to search for food.

At a fundamental level, the pandemic has highlighted the balance evolution has struck between fear and its aversion, between risk taking and risk avoidance.

     

Differential Reward Learning for Self and Others Predicts Self-Reported Altruism

In social environments, decisions not only determine rewards for oneself but also for others. However, individual differences in pro-social behaviors have been typically studied through self-report. We developed a decision-making paradigm in which participants chose from card decks with differing rewards for themselves and charity; some decks gave similar rewards to both, while others gave higher rewards for one or the other. We used a reinforcement-learning model that estimated each participant''s relative weighting of self versus charity reward. As shown both in choices and model parameters, individuals who showed relatively better learning of rewards for charity – compared to themselves – were more likely to engage in pro-social behavior outside of a laboratory setting indicated by self-report. Overall rates of reward learning, however, did not predict individual differences in pro-social tendencies. These results support the idea that biases toward learning about social rewards are associated with one''s altruistic tendencies.