The Proportion of Three Foundation Plant Species and Their Genotypes Influence an Arthropod Community: Restoration Implications for the Endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher

As part of a restoration project, multiple genotypes of two tree species, Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii) and Goodding's willow (Salix gooddingii), and one shrub species, Coyote willow (S. exigua), were experimentally planted in different proportions at the Palo Verde Ecological Reserve near Blythe, California, U.S.A. These common woody plant species are important to the endangered southwestern willow flycatcher, providing perch, nesting, and foraging habitat. We conducted this study to evaluate plant species proportion and plant genotype effects on the arthropod community, the prey base for the endangered southwestern willow flycatcher. Three patterns emerged. First, plant species proportions were important; the arthropod community had the greatest richness and diversity (H′) when Goodding's willow proportion was high and Fremont cottonwood proportion was lower; that is, fewer Fremont cottonwoods are required to positively affect overall arthropod diversity. Second, we found significant genotypic effects, for all three plant species, on arthropod species accumulation. Third, while both planting proportion and genotype effects were significant, we found that the effect of planting proportion on arthropod richness was about twice as large as the effect of plant genotype. This shows that both plant species proportions and genotype should be utilized in restoration projects to maximize habitat heterogeneity and arthropod richness. Similar studies can determine which planting proportion and specific genotypes may result in a more favorable arthropod prey base for the southwestern willow flycatcher and other species of concern. Greater attention to planting design and genotype can result in significant gains in diversity at little or no additional project cost.     

Southwestern Willow Flycatcher Population and Habitat Response to Reservoir Inundation

ABSTRACT One of the largest known populations of the federally endangered southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) occurs at Roosevelt Lake, Arizona, USA. Modifications to Roosevelt Dam, completed in 1996, raised the height of the dam and resulted in a high probability of willow flycatcher habitat inundation within the reservoir's conservation pool. We collected habitat measurements and monitored 922 willow flycatcher nests from 1996 to 2006 to investigate effects of inundation on willow flycatcher habitat and subsequent changes in nest success, productivity, and distribution. Inundation of willow flycatcher habitat at Roosevelt Lake occurred in 2005, changing the location and amount of suitable breeding habitat and significantly altering habitat structure (e.g., thinner vegetation, more canopy gaps) of formally occupied nest sites. The willow flycatcher population at Roosevelt Lake decreased 47% from 209 territories in 2004 to 111 territories in 2006 in response to habitat changes. Willow flycatchers made fewer nesting attempts and nest success rates were significantly lower during inundation (2005 and 2006: 45%) than preinundation (1996–2004: 57%). Combined, these factors negatively affected the population's productivity during inundation. Although inundation caused extensive vegetation die-off, we did observe regeneration of vegetation in some areas at Roosevelt Lake in 2006. The Roosevelt Lake population remains one of the largest willow flycatcher populations in the state and territory numbers remain high enough that the population may not suffer long-term effects if sufficient suitable habitat continues to exist during the cycle of inundation and regeneration. Reservoir managers may be able to develop dam management guidelines that reduce damage to habitat, encourage habitat growth, and mimic the dynamic nature of unaltered riparian habitat. These guidelines can be implemented, as appropriate, at reservoirs throughout the willow flycatcher's range.     

An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population‐level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype–environment association analysis, we identify potential climate‐adaptive SNPs in our genomic data set and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore, a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.     

Ecological genomics meets community‐level modelling of biodiversity: mapping the genomic landscape of current and future environmental adaptation

Local adaptation is a central feature of most species occupying spatially heterogeneous environments, and may factor critically in responses to environmental change. However, most efforts to model the response of species to climate change ignore intraspecific variation due to local adaptation. Here, we present a new perspective on spatial modelling of organism–environment relationships that combines genomic data and community‐level modelling to develop scenarios regarding the geographic distribution of genomic variation in response to environmental change. Rather than modelling species within communities, we use these techniques to model large numbers of loci across genomes. Using balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera) as a case study, we demonstrate how our framework can accommodate nonlinear responses of loci to environmental gradients. We identify a threshold response to temperature in the circadian clock gene GIGANTEA‐5 (GI5), suggesting that this gene has experienced strong local adaptation to temperature. We also demonstrate how these methods can map ecological adaptation from genomic data, including the identification of predicted differences in the genetic composition of populations under current and future climates. Community‐level modelling of genomic variation represents an important advance in landscape genomics and spatial modelling of biodiversity that moves beyond species‐level assessments of climate change vulnerability.     

Adaptive population divergence and directional gene flow across steep elevational gradients in a climate‐sensitive mammal

The ecological effects of climate change have been shown in most major taxonomic groups; however, the evolutionary consequences are less well‐documented. Adaptation to new climatic conditions offers a potential long‐term mechanism for species to maintain viability in rapidly changing environments, but mammalian examples remain scarce. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) has been impacted by recent climate‐associated extirpations and range‐wide reductions in population sizes, establishing it as a sentinel mammalian species for climate change. To investigate evidence for local adaptation and reconstruct patterns of genomic diversity and gene flow across rapidly changing environments, we used a space‐for‐time design and restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing to genotype American pikas along two steep elevational gradients at 30,966 SNPs and employed independent outlier detection methods that scanned for genotype‐environment associations. We identified 338 outlier SNPs detected by two separate analyses and/or replicated in both transects, several of which were annotated to genes involved in metabolic function and oxygen transport. Additionally, we found evidence of directional gene flow primarily downslope from high‐elevation populations, along with reduced gene flow at outlier loci. If this trend continues, elevational range contractions in American pikas will likely be from local extirpation rather than upward movement of low‐elevation individuals; this, in turn, could limit the potential for adaptation within this landscape. These findings are of particular relevance for future conservation and management of American pikas and other elevationally restricted, thermally sensitive species.     

Prediction of near-term climate change impacts on UK wheat quality and the potential for adaptation through plant breeding

Wheat is a major crop worldwide, mainly cultivated for human consumption and animal feed. Grain quality is paramount in determining its value and downstream use. While we know that climate change threatens global crop yields, a better understanding of impacts on wheat end-use quality is also critical. Combining quantitative genetics with climate model outputs, we investigated UK-wide trends in genotypic adaptation for wheat quality traits. In our approach, we augmented genomic prediction models with environmental characterisation of field trials to predict trait values and climate effects in historical field trial data between 2001 and 2020. Addition of environmental covariates, such as temperature and rainfall, successfully enabled prediction of genotype by environment interactions (G × E), and increased prediction accuracy of most traits for new genotypes in new year cross validation. We then extended predictions from these models to much larger numbers of simulated environments using climate scenarios projected under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 for 2050–2069. We found geographically varying climate change impacts on wheat quality due to contrasting associations between specific weather covariables and quality traits across the UK. Notably, negative impacts on quality traits were predicted in the East of the UK due to increased summer temperatures while the climate in the North and South-west may become more favourable with increased summer temperatures. Furthermore, by projecting 167,040 simulated future genotype–environment combinations, we found only limited potential for breeding to exploit predictable G × E to mitigate year-to-year environmental variability for most traits except Hagberg falling number. This suggests low adaptability of current UK wheat germplasm across future UK climates. More generally, approaches demonstrated here will be critical to enable adaptation of global crops to near-term climate change.     

Plio-Pleistocene climate change and geographic heterogeneity in plant diversity–environment relationships

Plio‐Pleistocene climate change may have induced geographic heterogeneity in plant species richness–environment relationships in Europe due to greater in situ species survival and speciation rates in southern Europe. We formulate distinct hypotheses on how Plio‐Pleistocene climate change may have affected richness–topographic heterogeneity and richness–water‐energy availability relationships, causing steeper relationships in southern Europe. We investigated these hypotheses using data from Atlas Florae Europaeae on the distribution of 3069 species and geographically weighted regression (GWR). Our analyses showed that plant species richness generally increased with topographic heterogeneity (ln‐transformed altitudinal range) and actual evapotranspiration (AET). We also found evidence for strong geographic heterogeneity in the species richness–environment relationship, with a greater increase in species richness with increasing topographic heterogeneity in southern Europe (mean standardized local slope 0.610±0.245 SD in southern Europe, but only 0.270±0.175 SD in northern Europe). However, the local AET slopes were, at most, weakly different between the two regions, and their pattern did not conform to predictions, as there was a band of high local slopes across southern‐central northern Europe. This band broadly matches the transition between the temperate and boreal zones and may simply reflect the fact that few species tolerate the boreal climate. We discuss the potential explanations for the contrasting findings for the two richness–environment relationships. In conclusion, we find support for the idea that Plio‐Pleistocene climate change may sometimes affect current species richness–environment relationships via its effects on regional species pools. However, further studies integrating information on species ages and clade differentiation rates will be needed to substantiate this interpretation. On a general level, our results indicate that although strong richness–environment relationships are often found in macroecological studies, these can be contingent upon the historical constraints on the species pool.     

Protecting rare and endangered species under climate change on the Qinghai Plateau,China

Climate change‐induced species range shift may pose severe challenges to species conservation. The Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau is the highest and biggest plateau, and also one of the most sensitive areas to global warming in the world, which provides important shelters for a unique assemblage of species. Here, ecological niche‐based model was employed to project the potential distributions of 59 key rare and endangered species under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Qinghai Province. I assessed the potential impacts of climate change on these key species (habitats, species richness and turnover) and effectiveness of nature reserves (NRs) in protecting these species. The results revealed that that climate change would shrink the geographic ranges of about a third studied species and expand the habitats for two thirds of these species, which would thus alter the conservation value of some local areas and conservation effectiveness of some NRs in Qinghai Province. Some regions require special attention as they are expected to experience significant changes in species turnover, species richness or newly colonized species in the future, including Haidong, Haibei and Haixi junctions, the southwestern Yushu, Qinghai Nuomuhong Provincial NR, Qinghai Qaidam and Haloxylon Forest NR. The Haidong and the eastern part of Haibei, are projected to have high species richness and conservation value in both current and future, but they are currently not protected, and thus require extra protection in the future. The results could provide the first basis on the high latitude region to formulate biodiversity conservation strategies on climate change adaptation.     

Climate change and biological invasions: evidence,expectations, and response options

A changing climate may directly or indirectly influence biological invasions by altering the likelihood of introduction or establishment, as well as modifying the geographic range, environmental impacts, economic costs or management of alien species. A comprehensive assessment of empirical and theoretical evidence identified how each of these processes is likely to be shaped by climate change for alien plants, animals and pathogens in terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments of Great Britain. The strongest contemporary evidence for the potential role of climate change in the establishment of new alien species is for terrestrial arthropods, as a result of their ectothermic physiology, often high dispersal rate and their strong association with trade as well as commensal relationships with human environments. By contrast, there is little empirical support for higher temperatures increasing the rate of alien plant establishment due to the stronger effects of residence time and propagule pressure. The magnitude of any direct climate effect on the number of new alien species will be small relative to human‐assisted introductions driven by socioeconomic factors. Casual alien species (sleepers) whose population persistence is limited by climate are expected to exhibit greater rates of establishment under climate change assuming that propagule pressure remains at least at current levels. Surveillance and management targeting sleeper pests and diseases may be the most cost‐effective option to reduce future impacts under climate change. Most established alien species will increase their distribution range in Great Britain over the next century. However, such range increases are very likely be the result of natural expansion of populations that have yet to reach equilibrium with their environment, rather than a direct consequence of climate change. To assess the potential realised range of alien species will require a spatially explicit approach that not only integrates bioclimatic suitability and population‐level demographic rates but also simulation of landscape‐level processes (e.g. dispersal, land‐use change, host/habitat distribution, non‐climatic edaphic constraints). In terms of invasive alien species that have known economic or biodiversity impacts, the taxa that are likely to be the most responsive are plant pathogens and insect pests of agricultural crops. However, the extent to which climate adaptation strategies lead to new crops, altered rotations, and different farming practices (e.g. irrigation, fertilization) will all shape the potential agricultural impacts of alien species. The greatest uncertainty in the effects of climate change on biological invasions exists with identifying the future character of new species introductions and predicting ecosystem impacts. Two complementary strategies may work under these conditions of high uncertainty: (i) prioritise ecosystems in terms of their perceived vulnerability to climate change and prevent ingress or expansion of alien species therein that may exacerbate problems; (ii) target those ecosystem already threatened by alien species and implement management to prevent the situation deteriorating under climate change.     

Role of population genetics in guiding ecological responses to climate

Population responses to climate were assessed using 3–7 years height growth data gathered for 266 populations growing in 12 common gardens established in the 1980s as part of five disparate studies of Pinus contorta var. latifolia. Responses are interpreted according to three concepts: the ecological optimum, the climate where a population is competitively exclusive and in which, therefore, it occurs naturally; the physiological optimum, the climate where a population grows best but is most often competitively excluded; and growth potential, the innate capacity for growth at the physiological optimum. Statistical analyses identified winter cold, measured by the square root of negative degree‐days calculated from the daily minimum temperature (MINDD0^1/2), as the climatic effect most closely related to population growth potential; the colder the winter inhabited by a population, the lower its growth potential, a relationship presumably molded by natural selection. By splitting the data into groups based on population MINDD0^1/2 and using a function suited to skewed normal distributions, regressions were developed for predicting growth from the distance in climate space (MINDD0^1/2) populations had been transferred from their native location to a planting site. The regressions were skewed, showing that the ecological optimum of most populations is colder than the physiological optimum and that the discrepancy between the two increases as the ecological optimum becomes colder. Response to climate change is dependent on innate growth potential and the discrepancy between the two optima and, therefore, is population‐specific, developing out of genotype‐environment interactions. Response to warming in the short‐term can be either positive or negative, but long term responses will be negative for all populations, with the timing of the demise dependent on the amount of skew. The results pertain to physiological modeling, species distribution models, and climate‐change adaptation strategies.     

Future vulnerability mapping based on response to extreme climate events: Dieback thresholds in an endemic California oak

Aim

This study presents a bioclimate modelling approach, using responses to extreme climate events, rather than historical distributional associations, to project future species vulnerability and refugia. We aim to illustrate the compounding effects of groundwater loss and climate on species vulnerability.

Location

California, USA.

Methods

As a case study, we used the 2012–2015 California drought and resulting extensive dieback of blue oak (Quercus douglasii). We used aerial dieback surveys, downscaled climate data and subsurface water change data to develop boosted regression tree models identifying key thresholds associated with dieback throughout the blue oak distribution. We (1) combined observed dieback–climatic threshold relationships with climate futures to anticipate future areas of vulnerability and (2) used satellite‐derived measurements of subsurface water loss in drought/dieback modelling to capture the mediating effect of groundwater on species response to climatic drought.

Results

A model including climate, climate anomalies and subsurface water change explained 46% of the variability in dieback. Precipitation in 2015 and subsurface water change accounted for 62.6% of the modelled probability of dieback. We found an interaction between precipitation and subsurface water in which dieback probability increased with low precipitation and subsurface water loss. The relationship between precipitation and dieback was nonlinear, with 99% of dieback occurring in areas that received <363 mm precipitation. Based on a MIROC_rcp85 future climate scenario, relative to historical conditions, 13% of the blue oak distribution is predicted to experience more frequent years below this precipitation threshold by mid‐century and 81% by end of century.

Main conclusions

As ongoing climate change and extreme events impact ecological processes, the identification of thresholds associated with observed dieback may be combined with climate futures to help identify vulnerable populations and refugia and prioritize climate change‐related conservation efforts.     

Synthesizing the role of epigenetics in the response and adaptation of species to climate change in freshwater ecosystems

Freshwater ecosystems are amongst the most threatened ecosystems on Earth. Currently, climate change is one of the most important drivers of freshwater transformation and its effects include changes in the composition, biodiversity and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Understanding the capacity of freshwater species to tolerate the environmental fluctuations induced by climate change is critical to the development of effective conservation strategies. In the last few years, epigenetic mechanisms were increasingly put forward in this context because of their pivotal role in gene–environment interactions. In addition, the evolutionary role of epigenetically inherited phenotypes is a relatively recent but promising field. Here, we examine and synthesize the impacts of climate change on freshwater ecosystems, exploring the potential role of epigenetic mechanisms in both short‐ and long‐term adaptation of species. Following this wrapping‐up of current evidence, we particularly focused on bringing together the most promising future research avenues towards a better understanding of the effects of climate change on freshwater biodiversity, specifically highlighting potential molecular targets and the most suitable freshwater species for future epigenetic studies in this context.     

Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions

Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species‐level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait‐based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio‐temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change.     

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in climate change limits species' dispersal capabilities and adaptive potential

Global climate change has already caused local declines and extinctions. These losses are generally thought to occur because climate change is progressing too rapidly for populations to keep pace. Based on this hypothesis, numerous predictive frameworks have been developed to project future range shifts and changes in population dynamics resulting from global climate change. However, recent empirical work has demonstrated that seasonally asynchronous climate change regimes – when a region is warming during some parts of the year, but cooling in others – are constraining species' responses to climate change more strongly than rapid warming, leading to intra‐specific variation in responses to climate change and local population declines. Here, we couple a review of the literature related to asynchronous climate change regimes with meta‐population simulations and an analysis of long‐term North American climate trends to show that seasonally asynchronous regimes are occurring throughout most of North America and that their current spatial distribution may be a strong barrier to dispersal and gene flow across many species' ranges. Thus, even though adaptation to climate change may potentially be more common and rapid than previously thought, species whose ranges overlap with asynchronous regimes will likely succumb to local declines that may be difficult to mitigate via dispersal. Future climate‐related predictive frameworks should therefore incorporate asynchronous regimes as well as more traditional measures of climate velocity in order to fully capture the array of potential future climate change scenarios.     

Parapatric species and the implications for climate change studies: a case study on hares in Europe

Parapatry is a biogeographical term used to refer to organisms whose ranges do not overlap, but are immediately adjacent to each other; they only co‐occur – if at all – in a narrow contact zone. Often there are no environmental barriers in the contact zones, hence competitive interaction is usually advocated as the factor that modulates species distribution ranges. Even though the effects of climate change on species distribution have been widely studied, few studies have explored these effects on the biogeographical relationships between closely related, parapatric, species. We modelled environmental favourability for three parapatric hare species in Europe – Lepus granatensis, L. europaeus and L. timidus – using ecogeographical variables and projected the models into the future according to the IPCC A2 emissions scenario. Favourabilities for present and future scenarios were combined using fuzzy logic with the following aims: (i) to determine the biogeographical relationships between hare species in parapatry, that is L. granatensis/L. europaeus and L. europaeus/L. timidus and (ii) to assess the effects of climate change on each species as well as on their interspecific interactions. In their contact area L. granatensis achieved higher favourability values than L. europaeus, suggesting that if both species have a similar population status, the former species may have some advantages over the latter if competitive relationships are established. Climate change had the most striking effect on the distribution of L. timidus, especially when interspecific interactions with L. europaeus were taken into account, which may compromise the co‐existence of L. timidus. The results of this study are relevant not only for understanding the distribution patterns of the hares studied and the effects of climate change on these patterns, but also for improving the general application of species distribution models to the prediction of the effects of climate change on biodiversity.     

基于潜在植被的中国陆地生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性定量评价

 陆地生态系统对气候变化的响应及其脆弱性评价研究是当前全球变化领域的重要内容之一。该研究在生态系统过程模型的基础上,耦合了潜在 植被对气候变化的动态响应,模拟气候变化对潜在植被分布格局和生态系统主要功能的影响,以潜在植被的变化次数和变化方 向定义植被分布 对气候变化的敏感性和适应性,以生态系统功能特征量的年际变率及其变化趋势定义生态系统功能对气候变化的敏感性和适应性,进而对生态 系统的脆弱性进行定量评价,分析不同气候条件下我国陆地生态系统的脆弱性分布格局及其区域特点。结果表明,我国自然生态系统气候脆弱 性的总体特点为南低北高、东低西高,气候变化将会增加系统的脆弱性。采用政府间气候变化委员会排放情景特别报告国内和区域资源情景, 即IPCC-SRES-A2气候情景进行的预测模拟表明,到21世纪末我国不脆弱的生态系统比例将减少22%左右,高度脆弱和极度脆弱的生态系统所占的 比例较当前气候条件下分别减少1.3%和0.4%。气候变化对我国陆地生态系统的脆弱性分布格局影响不大。不同气候条件下,高度脆弱和极度脆 弱的自然生态系统主要分布在我国内蒙古、东北和西北等地区的生态过渡带上及荒漠-草地生态系统中。总体而言,华南及西南大部分地区的生 态系统脆弱性将随气候变化而有所增加,而华北及东北地区则有所减小。     

Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability,adaptation action benefits,and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection

Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30‐day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species’ distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold‐water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid‐century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our study demonstrates that even relatively small differences in the definitions of climate metrics can result in very different projections and reveal high uncertainty in predicted climate change effects.     

Climate change, plant migration, and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot: the Banksia (Proteaceae) of Western Australia

Climate change has already altered global patterns of biodiversity by modifying the geographic distributions of species. Forecasts based on bioclimatic envelop modeling of distributions of species suggests greater impacts can be expected in the future, but such projections are contingent on assumptions regarding future climate and migration rates of species. Here, we present a first assessment of the potential impact of climate change on a global biodiversity hotspot in southwestern Western Australia. Across three representative scenarios of future climate change, we simulated migration of 100 Banksia (Proteaceae) species at a rate of 5 km decade^?1 and compared projected impacts with those under the commonly applied, but acknowledged as inadequate, assumptions of ‘full‐’ and ‘no‐migration.’ Across all climate × migration scenarios, 66% of species were projected to decline, whereas only 6% were projected to expand or remain stable. Between 5% and 25% of species were projected to suffer range losses of 100% by 2080, depending mainly on climate scenario. Species losses were driven primarily by changes in current precipitation regimes, with the greatest losses of species projected to occur in a transition zone between wet coastal areas and interior arid regions and which is projected to become more arid in the future. Because the ranges of most species tended to collapse in all climate scenarios, we found that climate change impacts to flora of southwestern Western Australia may be large, even under optimistic assumptions regarding migration abilities. Taken together, our results suggest that the future of biodiversity in southwestern Western Australia may lie largely in the degree to which this hotspot experiences increased drought and in the ability of species to tolerate such decreases in precipitation. More broadly, our study is among a growing number of theoretical studies suggesting the impacts of future climate change on global biodiversity may be considerable.     

A trait-based approach to assess the vulnerability of European aquatic insects to climate change

Aquatic insects are the dominant taxon group in most freshwater ecosystems. As temperature is the main driver of their life cycle development, metabolic activity, and geographic distribution, these macroinvertebrates are particularly suitable for large scale and comparative studies of freshwater community responses to climate change. A dataset of bio-ecological traits of 1,942 Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa was used to analyze (1) the relationships among traits, (2) the potential vulnerability of EPT species to climate change, and (3) the geographical occurrence patterns of these potentially endangered species at the scale of European ecoregions. By means of a fuzzy correspondence analysis (FCA), two gradients emerged: (1) a longitudinal gradient, describing successive upstream–downstream features, and (2) a biogeographical gradient, separating endemic and micro-endemic species from widely distributed taxa. Moreover, aquatic insects of southern European ecoregions emerged as those most endangered in terms of potential vulnerability to climate change. Comparative multi-taxon studies provide important new insights into freshwater ecosystem functioning and responses to climate change, and could be the first step toward developing integrative monitoring or assessment tools (e.g., trait-based indicators at the species level) by means of non-arbitrary statistical methods.     

Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province,China

Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species’ habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least‐cost model for the current period (1960–1990) and the 2050s (2041–2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least‐cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km² of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km² and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km² and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high‐priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.