Leaf phenology in 22 North American tree species during the 21st century

Recent shifts in phenology are the best documented biological response to current anthropogenic climate change, yet remain poorly understood from a functional point of view. Prevailing analyses are phenomenological and approximate, only correlating temperature records to imprecise records of phenological events. To advance our understanding of phenological responses to climate change, we developed, calibrated, and validated process-based models of leaf unfolding for 22 North American tree species. Using daily meteorological data predicted by two scenarios (A2: +3.2 °C and B2: +1 °C) from the HadCM3 GCM, we predicted and compared range-wide shifts of leaf unfolding in the 20th and 21st centuries for each species. Model predictions suggest that climate change will affect leaf phenology in almost all species studied, with an average advancement during the 21st century of 5.0 days in the A2 scenario and 9.2 days in the B2 scenario. Our model also suggests that lack of sufficient chilling temperatures to break bud dormancy will decrease the rate of advancement in leaf unfolding date during the 21st century for many species. Some temperate species may even have years with abnormal budburst due to insufficient chilling. Species fell into two groups based on their sensitivity to climate change: (1) species that consistently had a greater advance in their leaf unfolding date with increasing latitude and (2) species in which the advance in leaf unfolding differed from the center to the northern vs. southern margins of their range. At the interspecific level, we predicted that early-leafing species tended to show a greater advance in leaf unfolding date than late-leafing species; and that species with larger ranges tend to show stronger phenological changes. These predicted changes in phenology have significant implications for the frost susceptibility of species, their interspecific relationships, and their distributional shifts.     

Impact of climate change on plant phenology in Mediterranean ecosystems

Plant phenology is strongly controlled by climate and has consequently become one of the most reliable bioindicators of ongoing climate change. We used a dataset of more than 200 000 records for six phenological events of 29 perennial plant species monitored from 1943 to 2003 for a comprehensive assessment of plant phenological responses to climate change in the Mediterranean region. Temperature, precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were studied together during a complete annual cycle before phenological events to determine their relative importance and potential seasonal carry‐over effects. Warm and dry springs under a positive phase of NAO advance flowering, leaf unfolding and fruiting dates and lengthen the growing season. Spatial variability of dates (range among sites) was also reduced during warm and dry years, especially for spring events. Climate during previous weeks to phenophases occurrence had the greatest impact on plants, although all events were also affected by climate conditions several months before. Immediate along with delayed climate effects suggest dual triggers in plant phenology. Climatic models accounted for more than 80% of variability in flowering and leaf unfolding dates, and in length of the growing season, but for lower proportions in fruiting and leaf falling. Most part of year‐to‐year changes in dates was accounted for temperature, while precipitation and NAO accounted for <10% of dates' variability. In the case of flowering, insect‐pollinated species were better modelled by climate than wind‐pollinated species. Differences in temporal responses of plant phenology to recent climate change are due to differences in the sensitivity to climate among events and species. Spring events are changing more than autumn events as they are more sensitive to climate and are also undergoing the greatest alterations of climate relative to other seasons. In conclusion, climate change has shifted plant phenology in the Mediterranean region.     

北京地区木本春季物候特征与生物学特性的关系

植物物候是植物生活史中的重要性状,也是指示气候与自然环境变化的重要指标,现已成为全球变化领域的研究热点之一。传统物候研究多假设物候由气候因素决定,如气温、降水、光照等,并主要从植物物候的年际变化角度探讨了气候因素对物候特征的影响。然而,不同物种的物候存在较大差异表明植物物候还与自身生物学特性（如系统发育和功能性状）有关,但植物生物学特性如何影响植物物候仍缺乏深入研究。基于北京地区44种木本植物1965-2018年的展叶始期和开花始期观测资料,以展叶始期和开花始期的3类物候特征（平均物候期、物候对温度的响应敏感度和物候期的积温需求）为例,探究植物物候特征与系统发育和功能性状的关系。首先,利用系统发育信号Blomberg’s K和进化模型检验植物物候特征是否具有系统发育保守性,并通过系统发育信号表征曲线直观表达植物物候特征的进化模式;之后,利用广义估计方程分析植物生活型、传粉型与物候特征的关系,以揭示不同植物的资源利用方式及生存策略的差异。研究发现：（1）除展叶始期的温度敏感度外,其余物候特征的进化均受随机遗传漂变和自然选择力的共同作用,可推断物候特征具有系统发育保守性,即亲缘关系越近的物种物候特征越相似。（2）开花始期的系统发育信号强度比展叶始期更大,表明繁殖物候的系统发育可能比生长物候更保守。（3）植物展叶始期及其积温需求与生活型密切相关。灌木比乔木的展叶时间早、积温需求少。植物开花始期与传粉型相关,风媒植物开花显著早于虫媒植物。研究成果有助于深入理解物候变化的生物学机制,对于丰富物候学的理论研究有重要意义,同时对植物保护也具有重要的指导价值。     

Responses of leaf unfolding and flowering to climate change in 12 tropical evergreen broadleaf tree species in Jianfengling,Hainan Island

为了探讨我国热带地区植物物候与气候变化的关系, 利用海南岛尖峰岭热带树木园12种热带常绿阔叶乔木植物2003-2011年物候观测资料结合同期月平均气温和降水数据, 运用积分回归分析方法, 筛选出影响海南岛12种乔木(8种本地种、4种引入种)展叶始期与开花始期的气象因素以及不同气象因素月值变化(月平均气温和月降水量)综合作用对这些树种物候期的动态影响, 最终建立积分回归-物候预测模型, 对气候变化背景下我国热带地区植物物候变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明: 海南岛12种热带常绿阔叶乔木展叶始期与开花始期均对气候变化做出较明显的响应, 几乎所有的树种展叶始期与开花始期的发生都受到气温和降水的共同影响。多数树种展叶始期受展叶前冬季及春季气温影响显著, 且在临近展叶始期的月份, 气温的影响更显著。上一年秋季月降水量对各树种开花始期的影响比其他时段显著, 这验证了降水的滞后性假说。本地种展叶始期对气候变化的响应比其开花始期对气候变化的响应更敏感, 引入种则相反。各树种展叶和开花在受气温和降水综合影响最明显的月份(假设其余11个月份月平均气温和月降水量不变), 月平均气温升高0.1 ℃、月降水量增加10 mm可使展叶始期和开花始期提前或推迟1-3天。积分回归分析方法为解释海南岛热带常绿阔叶乔木物候与气温和降水的动态关系提供了有效的途径, 基于气温和降水与物候资料建立的积分回归-物候预测模型具有对气温和降水变化影响下物候响应的解释率和预测精度高(R²≥ 0.943)的优点, 对于预测气候变化影响下的植物物候变化趋势有一定的适用性。     

海南岛尖峰岭12种热带常绿阔叶乔木展叶期与开花期对气候变化的响应

为了探讨我国热带地区植物物候与气候变化的关系, 利用海南岛尖峰岭热带树木园12种热带常绿阔叶乔木植物2003-2011年物候观测资料结合同期月平均气温和降水数据, 运用积分回归分析方法, 筛选出影响海南岛12种乔木(8种本地种、4种引入种)展叶始期与开花始期的气象因素以及不同气象因素月值变化(月平均气温和月降水量)综合作用对这些树种物候期的动态影响, 最终建立积分回归-物候预测模型, 对气候变化背景下我国热带地区植物物候变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明: 海南岛12种热带常绿阔叶乔木展叶始期与开花始期均对气候变化做出较明显的响应, 几乎所有的树种展叶始期与开花始期的发生都受到气温和降水的共同影响。多数树种展叶始期受展叶前冬季及春季气温影响显著, 且在临近展叶始期的月份, 气温的影响更显著。上一年秋季月降水量对各树种开花始期的影响比其他时段显著, 这验证了降水的滞后性假说。本地种展叶始期对气候变化的响应比其开花始期对气候变化的响应更敏感, 引入种则相反。各树种展叶和开花在受气温和降水综合影响最明显的月份(假设其余11个月份月平均气温和月降水量不变), 月平均气温升高0.1 ℃、月降水量增加10 mm可使展叶始期和开花始期提前或推迟1-3天。积分回归分析方法为解释海南岛热带常绿阔叶乔木物候与气温和降水的动态关系提供了有效的途径, 基于气温和降水与物候资料建立的积分回归-物候预测模型具有对气温和降水变化影响下物候响应的解释率和预测精度高(R²≥ 0.943)的优点, 对于预测气候变化影响下的植物物候变化趋势有一定的适用性。     

中国东部温带植被生长季节的空间外推估计

利用地面植物物候和遥感归一化差值植被指数（NDVI）数据,以及一种物候-遥感外推方法,实现植被生长季节从少数站点到较多站点的空间外推。结果表明：（1）在1982～1993年期间,中国东部温带地区植被生长季节多年平均起讫日期的空间格局与春季和秋季平均气温的空间格局相关显著;（2）在不同纬度带和整个研究区域,植被生长季节结束日期呈显著推迟的趋势,而开始日期则呈不显著提前的趋势,这与欧洲和北美地区植被生长季节开始日期显著提前而结束日期不显著推迟的变化趋势完全不同;（3）北部纬度带的植被生长季节平均每年延长1．4～3．6d,全区的植被生长季节平均每年延长1．4d,与同期北半球和欧亚大陆植被生长季节延长的趋势数值相近;（4）植被生长季节结束日期的显著推迟与晚春至夏季的区域性降温有关,而植被生长季节开始日期的不显著提前则与晚冬至春季气温趋势的不稳定变化有关;（5）在年际变化方面,植被生长季节开始和结束日期分别与2～4月份平均气温和5～6月份平均气温呈负相关关系。     

Spatial and temporal variation of phenological growing season and climate change impacts in temperate eastern China

Using phenological and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 1993 at seven sample stations in temperate eastern China, we calculated the cumulative frequency of leaf unfolding and leaf coloration dates for deciduous species every 5 days throughout the study period. Then, we determined the growing season beginning and end dates by computing times when 50% of the species had undergone leaf unfolding and leaf coloration for each station year. Next, we used these beginning and end dates of the growing season as time markers to determine corresponding threshold NDVI values on NDVI curves for the pixels overlaying phenological stations. Based on a cluster analysis, we determined extrapolation areas for each phenological station in every year, and then implemented the spatial extrapolation of growing season parameters from the seven sample stations to all possible meteorological stations in the study area. Results show that spatial patterns of growing season beginning and end dates correlate significantly with spatial patterns of mean air temperatures in spring and autumn, respectively. Contrasting with results from similar studies in Europe and North America, our study suggests that there is a significant delay in leaf coloration dates, along with a less pronounced advance of leaf unfolding dates in different latitudinal zones and the whole area from 1982 to 1993. The growing season has been extended by 1.4–3.6 days per year in the northern zones and by 1.4 days per year across the entire study area on average. The apparent delay in growing season end dates is associated with regional cooling from late spring to summer, while the insignificant advancement in beginning dates corresponds to inconsistent temperature trend changes from late winter to spring. On an interannual basis, growing season beginning and end dates correlate negatively with mean air temperatures from February to April and from May to June, respectively.     

Scaling phenology from the local to the regional level: advances from species‐specific phenological models

Plant phenology, the study of seasonal plant activity driven by environmental factors, has found a renewal in the context of global climate change. Phenological events, such as leaf unfolding, exert strong control over seasonal exchanges of matter and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Phenological models that simulate the start of the growing season should be efficient tools to predict vegetation responses to climatic changes and related changes in energy balance. Species‐specific phenological models developed in the eighties have not been used for global‐scale predictions because their predictions were inaccurate in external conditions. Recent advances in phenology modelling at the species level suggest that prediction at a large scale may now be possible. In the present study, we tested the performance of species‐specific phenological models in time and space, looking at their ability (i) to predict regional phenology when previously fitted at a local scale, and (ii) to predict phenological trends, linked to climate changes, observed over a long‐term. For that task we used an historical phenological dataset from Ohio from the late ninetieth century and an airborne pollen dataset from Ontario, Québec and Maryland from the late twentieth century. The results show that the species‐specific phenological models used in this study were able to predict regional phenology even though they were fitted locally. The reconstruction of a phenological time series over the twentieth century showed a significant advancement of 0.2 days per year in the date of flowering of Ulmus americana, but very weak trends for Fraxinus americana and Quercus velutina.     

中国北方苹果主产地苹果物候期对气候变暖的响应

为揭示我国北方苹果物候期时空变化特征及其对气候变暖的响应时段和强度,选取福山、万荣和阿克苏分别代表我国渤海湾、黄土高原和新疆苹果产区,利用1996—2018年各地红富士苹果芽开放期、展叶始期、始花期、可采成熟期、叶变色末期和落叶末期物候数据,分析不同物候期及生长阶段长度的变化趋势,并利用偏最小二乘回归法,从日尺度层面,分析气温变化对各物候期的影响。结果表明: 近23年来,福山、万荣和阿克苏芽开放期、展叶始期和始花期均呈现提前趋势,平均提前速率分别为0.36、0.33和0.23 d·a^-1,落叶末期则呈推迟趋势(0.68 d·a^-1),可采成熟期和叶变色末期在各产区的变化趋势不一致;果实生长发育期和果树全生育期分别以1.20和0.82 d·a^-1的速率延长。苹果春季物候期与1月初至相应物候期发生前平均气温呈显著负相关关系,期间温度每升高1 ℃,芽开放期、展叶始期和始花期将分别提前3.70、3.47和3.48 d;秋季物候期与各物候期前21～72 d的平均气温呈正相关,但与影响时段平均气温的相关性低于春季物候期;总体上,春季物候期受气温影响的程度大于秋季物候期,且果实生长发育期和果树全生育期的延长主要由春季物候期提前所致。各主产地间苹果物候期对气候变暖的响应存在一定差异,其中气温对阿克苏苹果生长发育的影响最大,其次是万荣,对福山的影响并不明显。该研究结果可为指导各地苹果产业应对气候变化提供理论依据。     

Chilling and forcing temperatures interact to predict the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers

The phenology of wood formation is a critical process to consider for predicting how trees from the temperate and boreal zones may react to climate change. Compared to leaf phenology, however, the determinism of wood phenology is still poorly known. Here, we compared for the first time three alternative ecophysiological model classes (threshold models, heat‐sum models and chilling‐influenced heat‐sum models) and an empirical model in their ability to predict the starting date of xylem cell enlargement in spring, for four major Northern Hemisphere conifers (Larix decidua, Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Picea mariana). We fitted models with Bayesian inference to wood phenological data collected for 220 site‐years over Europe and Canada. The chilling‐influenced heat‐sum model received most support for all the four studied species, predicting validation data with a 7.7‐day error, which is within one day of the observed data resolution. We conclude that both chilling and forcing temperatures determine the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers. Importantly, the chilling‐influenced heat‐sum model showed virtually no spatial bias whichever the species, despite the large environmental gradients considered. This suggests that the spring onset of wood formation is far less affected by local adaptation than by environmentally driven plasticity. In a context of climate change, we therefore expect rising winter–spring temperature to exert ambivalent effects on the spring onset of wood formation, tending to hasten it through the accumulation of forcing temperature, but imposing a higher forcing temperature requirement through the lower accumulation of chilling.     

Effect of open-field experimental warming on the leaf phenology of oriental oak (Quercus variabilis) seedlings

Aims An open-field warming experiment enables us to test the effects of projected temperature increase on change in plant phenology with fewer confounding factors and to study phenological response to temperature ranges beyond natural variability. This study aims to (i) examine the effect of temperature increase on leaf unfolding and senescence of oriental oak (Quercus variabilis Blume) under experimental warming and (ii) measure temperature-related parameters used in estimating phenological response to temperature elevation.Methods Using an open-field warming system with infrared heaters, we increased the air temperature by ~3°C in the warmed plots compared with that of the control plots consistently for 2 years. Leaf unfolding and senescence dates of Q. variabilis seedlings were recorded and temperature-related phenological parameters were analysed.Important findings The timing of leaf unfolding was advanced by 3–8 days (1.1–3.0 days/°C) and the date of leaf senescence was delayed by 14–19 days (5.0–7.3 days/°C) under elevated air temperatures. However, the cumulative degree days (CDD) of leaf unfolding were not significantly changed by experimental warming, which suggest the applicability of a constant CDD value to estimate the change in spring leaf phenology under 3°C warming. Consistent ranges of advancement and temperature sensitivity in spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology and proposed temperature parameters from this study might be applied to predict future phenological change.     

Long‐term changes in the impacts of global warming on leaf phenology of four temperate tree species

Contrary to the generally advanced spring leaf unfolding under global warming, the effects of the climate warming on autumn leaf senescence are highly variable with advanced, delayed, and unchanged patterns being all reported. Using one million records of leaf phenology from four dominant temperate species in Europe, we investigated the temperature sensitivities of spring leaf unfolding and autumn leaf senescence (S_T, advanced or delayed days per degree Celsius). The S_T of spring phenology in all of the four examined species showed an increase and decrease during 1951–1980 and 1981–2013, respectively. The decrease in the S_T during 1981–2013 appears to be caused by reduced accumulation of chilling units. As with spring phenology, the S_T of leaf senescence of early successional and exotic species started to decline since 1980. In contrast, for late successional species, the S_T of autumn senescence showed an increase for the entire study period from 1951 to 2013. Moreover, the impacts of rising temperature associated with global warming on spring leaf unfolding were stronger than those on autumn leaf senescence. The timing of leaf senescence was positively correlated with the timing of leaf unfolding during 1951–1980. However, as climate warming continued, the differences in the responses between spring and autumn phenology gradually increased, so that the correlation was no more significant during 1981–2013. Our results further suggest that since 2000, due to the decreased temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding the length of the growing season has not increased any more. These finding needs to be addressed in vegetation models used for assessing the effects of climate change.     

Spring leaf phenology and the diurnal temperature range in a temperate maple forest

Spring leaf phenology in temperate climates is intricately related to numerous aspects of the lower atmosphere [e.g., surface energy balance, carbon flux, humidity, the diurnal temperature range (DTR)]. To further develop and improve the accuracy of ecosystem and climate models, additional investigations of the specific nature of the relationships between spring leaf phenology and various ecosystem and climate processes are required in different environments. This study used visual observations of maple leaf phenology, below-canopy light intensities, and micrometeorological data collected during the spring seasons of 2008, 2009, and 2010 to examine the potential influence of leaf phenology on a seasonal transition in the trend of the DTR. The timing of a reversal in the DTR trend occurred near the time when the leaves were unfolding and expanding. The results suggest that the spring decline in the DTR can be attributed primarily to the effect of canopy closure on daily maximum temperature. These findings improve our understanding of the relationship between leaf phenology and the diurnal temperature range in temperate maple forests during the spring. They also demonstrate the necessity of incorporating accurate phenological data into ecosystem and climate models and warrant a careful examination of the extent to which canopy phenology is currently incorporated into existing models.     

Shifting and extension of phenological periods with increasing temperature along elevational transects in southern Bavaria

The impact of global warming on phenology has been widely studied, and almost consistently advancing spring events have been reported. Especially in alpine regions, an extraordinary rapid warming has been observed in the last decades. However, little is known about phenological phases over the whole vegetation period at high elevations. We observed 12 phenological phases of seven tree species and measured air temperature at 42 sites along four transects of about 1000 m elevational range in the years 2010 and 2011 near Garmisch‐Partenkirchen, Germany. Site‐ and species‐specific onset dates for the phenological phases were determined and related to elevation, temperature lapse rates and site‐specific temperature sums. Increasing temperatures induced advanced spring and delayed autumn phases, in which both yielded similar magnitudes. Delayed leaf senescence could therefore have been underestimated until now in extending the vegetation period. Not only the vegetation period, but also phenological periods extended with increasing temperature. Moreover, sensitivity to elevation and temperature strongly depends on the specific phenological phase. Differences between species and groups of species (deciduous, evergreen, high elevation) were found in onset dates, phenological response rates and also in the effect of chilling and forcing temperatures. Increased chilling days highly reduced forcing temperature requirements for deciduous trees, but less for evergreen trees. The problem of shifted species associations and phenological mismatches due to species‐specific responses to increasing temperature is a recent topic in ecological research. Therefore, we consider our findings from this novel, dense observation network in an alpine area of particular importance to deepen knowledge on phenological responses to climate change.     

Is climate warming more consequential towards poles? The phenology of Lepidoptera in Finland

The magnitude and direction of phenological shifts from climate warming could be predictably variable across the planet depending upon the nature of physiological controls on phenology, the thermal sensitivity of the developmental processes and global patterns in the climate warming. We tested this with respect to the flight phenology of adult nocturnal moths (3.33 million captures of 334 species) that were sampled at sites in southern and northern Finland during 1993–2012 (with years 2005–2012 treated as an independent model validation data set). We compared eight competing models of physiological controls on flight phenology to each species and found strong support for thermal controls of phenology in 66% of the species generations. Among species with strong thermal control of phenology in both the south and north, the average development rate was higher in northern vs. southern populations at 10 °C, but about the same at 15 and 20 °C. With a 3 °C increase in temperature (approximating A2 scenario of IPPC for 2090–2099 relative to 1980–1999) these species were predicted to advance their phenology on average by 17 (SE ± 0.3) days in the south vs. 13 (±0.4) days in the north. The higher development rates at low temperatures of poleward populations makes them less sensitive to climate warming, which opposes the tendency for stronger phenological advances in the north from greater increases in temperature.     

Herbarium records identify sensitivity of flowering phenology of eucalypts to climate: Implications for species response to climate change

Flowering phenology is very sensitive to climate and with increasing global warming the flowering time of plants is shifting to earlier or later dates. Changes in flowering times may affect species reproductive success, associated phenological events, species synchrony, and community composition. Long‐term data on phenological events can provide key insights into the impacts of climate on phenology. For Australia, however, limited data availability restricts our ability to assess the impacts of climate change on plant phenology. To address this limitation other data sources must be explored such as the use of herbarium specimens to conduct studies on flowering phenology. This study uses herbarium specimens for investigating the flowering phenology of five dominant and commercially important Eucalyptus species of south‐eastern Australia and the consequences of climate variability and change on flowering phenology. Relative to precipitation and air humidity, mean temperature of the preceding 3 months was the most influential factor on the flowering time for all species. In response to a temperature increment of 1°C, a shift in the timing of flowering of 14.1–14.9 days was predicted for E. microcarpa and E. tricarpa while delays in flowering of 11.3–15.5 days were found for E. obliqua, E. radiata and E. polyanthemos. Eucalyptus polyanthemos exhibited the greatest sensitivity to climatic variables. The study demonstrates that herbarium data can be used to detect climatic signals on flowering phenology for species with a long flowering duration, such as eucalypts. The robust relationship identified between temperature and flowering phenology indicates that shifts in flowering times will occur under predicted climate change which may affect reproductive success, fitness, plant communities and ecosystems.     

Stoneworts of Coll and Tiree

Background: Since phenology is a good bio-indicator of temperature the latter is often used in phenological analyses. However, whilst meteorological data are difficult to interpolate from point measurements at the desired resolution, region-wide digital data, e.g. elevation models or land cover data, are usually readily available.

Aims: The potential of environmental variables, other than meteorological data, to create a bioclimatic classification of landscapes at the mesoscale was tested by the joint use of spatial data and the flowering dates of Forsythia suspensa at 70 phenological stations in southern Bavaria, Germany.

Methods: A linear discriminant analysis was carried out to identify relevant land use variables that were correlated with phenology and, using these results, to regionalise the observed flowering dates within the framework of a Geographic Information System.

Results: The generated map represented dates of onset at the regional scale, mostly influenced by the extent of impervious (hard, sealed) surfaces and forest, altitude and distance to urban areas. Thus, we overcame restrictions resulting from the difficulties of spatially interpolating available climatological data, and from the limited number of phenological datasets.

Conclusions: We demonstrated that the selected variables were capable of adequately modelling regional bioclimatic zonation, and that phenology was a useful proxy of regional climate variation arising from both natural and anthropogenic factors.     

1980-2018年中国东部主要木本植物展叶始期的温度相关时段变化

木本植物春季展叶始期的年际变化通常受其发生前一段时间的气温影响,这个时段被称作温度相关时段（temperature-relevant period,TRP）。TRP开始时间和长度的变化反映了气候增暖对植物发育过程的影响。利用中国物候网观测数据,分析了1980-2018年中国东部8个代表性站点162种木本植物展叶始期的TRP开始时间、结束时间和长度变化。结果显示：（1）亚热带站点比温带站点木本植物的平均TRP开始时间早约43 d,长度长约13 d。（2）TRP开始时间在温带地区北部（哈尔滨和牡丹江）变化不显著,在南部（北京、西安和民勤）以0.41-0.53 d/a的速度显著提前。在亚热带,除桂林外,其他站点展叶始期TRP长度延长和缩短的物种比例相近。这表明气候增暖对不同站点植物TRP的影响不仅取决于增暖的幅度,还和站点的背景气候条件相关。（3）乔木TRP平均开始时间和结束时间分别比灌木晚6.49 d和3.92 d,TRP长度略短于灌木。这与灌木采取机会主义的生存策略有关,而乔木在春季的展叶期较为保守以降低霜冻风险。（4）无论在亚热带还是温带地区,展叶越早的物种,TRP开始时间越早,长度越短,展叶始期与季前温度的相关性越强。研究结果可为研究气候变化对植物物候的影响及物候模型的发展提供科学参考。     

Multiscale modeling of spring phenology across Deciduous Forests in the Eastern United States

Phenological events, such as bud burst, are strongly linked to ecosystem processes in temperate deciduous forests. However, the exact nature and magnitude of how seasonal and interannual variation in air temperatures influence phenology is poorly understood, and model‐based phenology representations fail to capture local‐ to regional‐scale variability arising from differences in species composition. In this paper, we use a combination of surface meteorological data, species composition maps, remote sensing, and ground‐based observations to estimate models that better represent how community‐level species composition affects the phenological response of deciduous broadleaf forests to climate forcing at spatial scales that are typically used in ecosystem models. Using time series of canopy greenness from repeat digital photography, citizen science data from the USA National Phenology Network, and satellite remote sensing‐based observations of phenology, we estimated and tested models that predict the timing of spring leaf emergence across five different deciduous broadleaf forest types in the eastern United States. Specifically, we evaluated two different approaches: (i) using species‐specific models in combination with species composition information to ‘upscale’ model predictions and (ii) using repeat digital photography of forest canopies that observe and integrate the phenological behavior of multiple representative species at each camera site to calibrate a single model for all deciduous broadleaf forests. Our results demonstrate variability in cumulative forcing requirements and photoperiod cues across species and forest types, and show how community composition influences phenological dynamics over large areas. At the same time, the response of different species to spatial and interannual variation in weather is, under the current climate regime, sufficiently similar that the generic deciduous forest model based on repeat digital photography performed comparably to the upscaled species‐specific models. More generally, results from this analysis demonstrate how in situ observation networks and remote sensing data can be used to synergistically calibrate and assess regional parameterizations of phenology in models.     

Genetic diversity increases regional variation in phenological dates in response to climate change

Climate change is inducing changes in the phenological timings of organisms. Genetic diversity could influence phenological responses to climate change, but empirical evidence is very limited. We estimated the regional variation across Japan in flowering and leaf budburst dates of plants based on a dataset of phenological timings from 1953 to 2005. The observed plants' genetic diversities varied according to human cultivation. The within-species variations of phenological response to temperature as well as regional variations were less in the plant populations with lower genetic diversity. Thus, genetic diversity influences the variation in phenological responses of plant populations. Under increased temperatures, low variation in phenological responses may allow drastic changes in the phenology of plant populations with synchronized phenological timings. Our findings indicate that we should pay attention to maintaining genetic diversity of populations to alleviate changes in phenology due to future climate change.