Rural,Urban and Migrant Differences in Non-Communicable Disease Risk-Factors in Middle Income Countries: A Cross-Sectional Study of WHO-SAGE Data

Background

Understanding how urbanisation and rural-urban migration influence risk-factors for non-communicable disease (NCD) is crucial for developing effective preventative strategies globally. This study compares NCD risk-factor prevalence in urban, rural and migrant populations in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa.

Methods

Study participants were 39,436 adults within the WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE), surveyed 2007–2010. Risk ratios (RR) for each risk-factor were calculated using logistic regression in country-specific and all country pooled analyses, adjusted for age, sex and survey design. Fully adjusted models included income quintile, marital status and education.

Results

Regular alcohol consumption was lower in migrant and urban groups than in rural groups (pooled RR and 95%CI: 0.47 (0.31–0.68); 0.58, (0.46–0.72), respectively). Occupational physical activity was lower (0.86 (0.72–0.98); 0.76 (0.65–0.85)) while active travel and recreational physical activity were higher (pooled RRs for urban groups; 1.05 (1.00–1.09), 2.36 (1.95–2.83), respectively; for migrant groups: 1.07 (1.0 -1.12), 1.71 (1.11–2.53), respectively). Overweight, raised waist circumference and diagnosed diabetes were higher in urban groups (1.19 (1.04–1.35), 1.24 (1.07–1.42), 1.69 (1.15–2.47), respectively). Exceptions to these trends exist: obesity indicators were higher in rural Russia; active travel was lower in urban groups in Ghana and India; and in South Africa, urban groups had the highest alcohol consumption.

Conclusion

Migrants and urban dwellers had similar NCD risk-factor profiles. These were not consistently worse than those seen in rural dwellers. The variable impact of urbanisation on NCD risk must be considered in the design and evaluation of strategies to reduce the growing burden of NCDs globally.     

Multilevel Effects of Wealth on Women's Contraceptive Use in Mozambique

Objective

This paper analyzes the impact of wealth on the use of contraception in Mozambique unmixing the contextual effects due to community wealth from the individual effects associated with the women''s situation within the community of residence.

Methods

Data from the 2011 Mozambican Demographic and Health Survey on women who are married or living together are analyzed for the entire country and also for the rural and urban areas separately. We used single level and multilevel probit regression models.

Findings

A single level probit regression reveals that region, religion, age, previous fertility, education, and wealth impact contraceptive behavior. The multilevel analysis shows that average community wealth and the women’s relative socioeconomic position within the community have significant positive effects on the use of modern contraceptives. The multilevel framework proved to be necessary in rural settings but not relevant in urban areas. Moreover, the contextual effects due to community wealth are greater in rural than in urban areas and this feature is associated with the higher socioeconomic heterogeneity within the richest communities.

Conclusion

This analysis highlights the need for the studies on contraceptive behavior to specifically address the individual and contextual effects arising from the poverty-wealth dimension in rural and urban areas separately. The inclusion in a particular community of residence is not relevant in urban areas, but it is an important feature in rural areas. Although the women''s individual position within the community of residence has a similar effect on contraceptive adoption in rural and urban settings, the impact of community wealth is greater in rural areas and smaller in urban areas.     

Determinants of Obesity and Associated Population Attributability,South Africa: Empirical Evidence from a National Panel Survey, 2008-2012

Background

Obesity is a major risk factor for emerging non-communicable diseases (NCDS) in middle income countries including South Africa (SA). Understanding the multiple and complex determinants of obesity and their true population attributable impact is critical for informing and developing effective prevention efforts using scientific based evidence. This study identified contextualised high impact factors associated with obesity in South Africa.

Methods

Analysis of three national cross sectional (repeated panel) surveys, using a multilevel logistic regression and population attributable fraction estimation allowed for identification of contextualised high impact factors associated with obesity (BMI>30 kg/m²) among adults (15years+).

Results

Obesity prevalence increased significantly from 23.5% in 2008 to 27.2% in 2012, with a significantly (p-value<0.001) higher prevalence among females (37.9% in 2012) compared to males (13.3% in 2012). Living in formal urban areas, white ethnicity, being married, not exercising and/or in higher socio-economic category were significantly associated with male obesity. Females living in formal or informal urban areas, higher crime areas, African/White ethnicity, married, not exercising, in a higher socio-economic category and/or living in households with proportionate higher spending on food (and unhealthy food options) were significantly more likely to be obese. The identified determinants appeared to account for 75% and 43% of male and female obesity respectively. White males had the highest relative gain in obesity from 2008 to 2012.

Conclusions

The rising prevalence of obesity in South Africa is significant and over the past 5 years the rising prevalence of Type-2 diabetes has mirrored this pattern, especially among females. Targeting young adolescent girls should be a priority. Addressing determinants of obesity will involve a multifaceted strategy and requires at individual and population levels. With rising costs in the private and public sector to combat obesity related NCDS, this analysis can inform culturally sensitive mass communications and wellness campaigns. Knowledge of social determinants is critical to develop “best buys”.     

Incidence,Remission and Mortality of Convulsive Epilepsy in Rural Northeast South Africa

Background

Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological conditions globally, estimated to constitute 0.75% of the global burden of disease, with the majority of this burden found in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). Few studies from LMICs, including much of sub-Saharan Africa, have described the incidence, remission or mortality rates due to epilepsy, which are needed to quantify the burden and inform policy. This study investigates the epidemiological parameters of convulsive epilepsy within a context of high HIV prevalence and an emerging burden of cardiovascular disease.

Methods

A cross-sectional population survey of 82,818 individuals, in the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in rural northeast South Africa was conducted in 2008, from which 296 people were identified with active convulsive epilepsy. A follow-up survey was conducted in 2012. Incidence and mortality rates were estimated, with duration and remission rates calculated using the DISMOD II software package.

Results

The crude incidence for convulsive epilepsy was 17.4/100,000 per year (95%CI: 13.1-23.0). Remission was 4.6% and 3.9% per year for males and females, respectively. The standardized mortality ratio was 2.6 (95%CI: 1.7-3.5), with 33.3% of deaths directly related to epilepsy. Mortality was higher in men than women (adjusted rate ratio (aRR) 2.6 (95%CI: 1.2-5.4)), and was significantly associated with older ages (50+ years versus those 0-5 years old (RR 4.8 (95%CI: 0.6-36.4)).

Conclusions

The crude incidence was lower whilst mortality rates were similar to other African studies; however, this study found higher mortality amongst older males. Efforts aimed at further understanding what causes epilepsy in older people and developing interventions to reduce prolonged seizures are likely to reduce the overall burden of ACE in rural South Africa.     

The Epidemiology of Chronic Kidney Disease in Northern Tanzania: A Population-Based Survey

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa, kidney failure has a high morbidity and mortality. Despite this, population-based estimates of prevalence, potential etiologies, and awareness are not available.

Methods

Between January and June 2014, we conducted a household survey of randomly-selected adults in Northern Tanzania. To estimate prevalence we screened for CKD, which was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73m2 and/or persistent albuminuria. We also screened for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and lifestyle practices including alcohol, tobacco, and traditional medicine use. Awareness was defined as a self-reported disease history and subsequently testing positive. We used population-based age- and gender-weights in estimating prevalence, and we used generalized linear models to explore potential risk factors associated with CKD, including living in an urban environment.

Results

We enrolled 481 adults from 346 households with a median age of 45 years. The community-based prevalence of CKD was 7.0% (95% CI 3.8-12.3), and awareness was low at 10.5% (4.7-22.0). The urban prevalence of CKD was 15.2% (9.6-23.3) while the rural prevalence was 2.0% (0.5-6.9). Half of the cases of CKD (49.1%) were not associated with any of the measured risk factors of hypertension, diabetes, or HIV. Living in an urban environment had the strongest crude (5.40; 95% CI 2.05-14.2) and adjusted prevalence risk ratio (4.80; 1.70-13.6) for CKD, and the majority (79%) of this increased risk was not explained by demographics, traditional medicine use, socioeconomic status, or co-morbid non-communicable diseases (NCDs).

Conclusions

We observed a high burden of CKD in Northern Tanzania that was associated with low awareness. Although demographic, lifestyle practices including traditional medicine use, socioeconomic factors, and NCDs accounted for some of the excess CKD risk observed with urban residence, much of the increased urban prevalence remained unexplained and will further study as demographic shifts reshape sub-Saharan Africa.     

A Qualitative Study of Environmental Factors Important for Physical Activity in Rural Adults

Purpose

Despite increasing evidence that the physical environment impacts on physical activity among urban-dwellers, little attention has been devoted to understanding this relationship in rural populations. Work in this area is further hindered by a lack of environmental measures specifically designed for rural settings. This qualitative study aimed to explore the salience of urban physical activity environment constructs among rural adults.

Methods

In 2011, 49 rural men and women from three distinct areas (coastal, animal-based farming, forestry/plant-based farming) of rural Tasmania, Australia, were purposively recruited to participate in semi-structured interviews. Interviews explored features of the built and social environment commonly examined in studies of urban adults, including functional characteristics (eg, lighting, footpaths, roads/verges), road and personal safety, availability and accessibility of places to be active, destinations, and aesthetics. Interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using a content-thematic approach using QSR NVivo software.

Findings

While some urban environmental constructs were salient to these rural adults, such as availability of and accessibility to places to be active, some constructs were operationalised differently, such as road safety (where large trucks and winding roads rather than traffic density was of concern), or were not considered relevant (eg, personal safety related to crime, availability of walkable destinations, aesthetics).

Conclusions

The measurement of the physical environment in rural populations may require reconsideration and/or modification to ensure salience and appropriate quantification of associations with physical activity in future studies.     

Factors Associated with Excessive Body Fat in Men and Women: Cross-Sectional Data from Black South Africans Living in a Rural Community and an Urban Township

Objective

To determine the factors associated with excessive body fat among black African men and women living in rural and urban communities of South Africa.

Methods

This is a cross-sectional analysis of data from the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, Cape Town, South Africa conducted in 2009/2010. The study sample included 1220 participants (77.2% women) aged 35–70 years, for whom anthropometric measurements were obtained and risk factors documented through face-to-face interviews using validated international PURE study protocols. Sex-specific logistic regression models were used to evaluate socio-demographic, lifestyle and psychological factors associated with three excessive body fat indicators, namely body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and body fat percent (BF%).

Results

The prevalence of excessive body fat based on BF%, WC and BMI cut-offs were 96.0%, 86.1%, and 81.6% for women respectively, and 62.2%, 25.9%, and 36.0% for men respectively. The significant odds of excessive body fat among the currently married compared to unmarried were 4.1 (95% CI: 1.3–12.5) for BF% and 1.9 (95% CI: 1.3–2.9) for BMI among women; and 4.9 (95% CI: 2.6–9.6), 3.2 (95% CI: 1.6–6.4) and 3.6 (95% CI: 1.9–6.8) for BF%, WC and BMI respectively among men. Age ≤50 years (compared to age >50 years) was inversely associated with excessive BF% in men and women, and less-than-a-college education was inversely associated with excessive BMI and WC in men. Tobacco smoking was inversely associated with all three excessive adiposity indicators in women but not in men. Unemployment, depression, and stress did not predict excessive body fat in men or women.

Conclusion

The sex-differences in the socio-demographic and lifestyle factors associated with the high levels of excessive body fat in urban and rural women and men should be considered in packaging interventions to reduce obesity in these communities.     

Accuracy of Assessment of Eligibility for Early Medical Abortion by Community Health Workers in Ethiopia,India and South Africa

Objective

To assess the accuracy of assessment of eligibility for early medical abortion by community health workers using a simple checklist toolkit.

Design

Diagnostic accuracy study.

Setting

Ethiopia, India and South Africa.

Methods

Two hundred seventeen women in Ethiopia, 258 in India and 236 in South Africa were enrolled into the study. A checklist toolkit to determine eligibility for early medical abortion was validated by comparing results of clinician and community health worker assessment of eligibility using the checklist toolkit with the reference standard exam.

Results

Accuracy was over 90% and the negative likelihood ratio <0.1 at all three sites when used by clinician assessors. Positive likelihood ratios were 4.3 in Ethiopia, 5.8 in India and 6.3 in South Africa. When used by community health workers the overall accuracy of the toolkit was 92% in Ethiopia, 80% in India and 77% in South Africa negative likelihood ratios were 0.08 in Ethiopia, 0.25 in India and 0.22 in South Africa and positive likelihood ratios were 5.9 in Ethiopia and 2.0 in India and South Africa.

Conclusion

The checklist toolkit, as used by clinicians, was excellent at ruling out participants who were not eligible, and moderately effective at ruling in participants who were eligible for medical abortion. Results were promising when used by community health workers particularly in Ethiopia where they had more prior experience with use of diagnostic aids and longer professional training. The checklist toolkit assessments resulted in some participants being wrongly assessed as eligible for medical abortion which is an area of concern. Further research is needed to streamline the components of the tool, explore optimal duration and content of training for community health workers, and test feasibility and acceptability.     

The Prevalence,Correlates, Detection and Control of Diabetes among Older People in Low and Middle Income Countries. A 10/66 Dementia Research Group Population-Based Survey

Background

Little is known of the epidemiology of diabetes among older people in low and middle income countries. We aimed to study and compare prevalence, social patterning, correlates, detection, treatment and control of diabetes among older people in Latin America, India, China and Nigeria.

Methods

Cross-sectional surveys in 13 catchment area sites in nine countries. Diagnosed diabetes was assessed in all sites through self-reported diagnosis. Undiagnosed diabetes was assessed in seven Latin American sites through fasting blood samples (glucose > = 7mmol/L).

Results

Total diabetes prevalence in catchment sites in Cuba (prevalence 24.2%, SMR 116), Puerto Rico (43.4%, 197), and urban (27.0%, 125), and rural Mexico (23.7%, 111) already exceeds that in the USA, while that in Venezuela (20.9%, 100) is similar. Diagnosed diabetes prevalence varied very widely, between low prevalences in sites in rural China (0.9%), rural India (6.6%) and Nigeria (6.0%). and 32.1% in Puerto Rico, explained mainly by access to health services. Treatment coverage varied substantially between sites. Diabetes control (40 to 61% of those diagnosed) was modest in the Latin American sites where this was studied. Diabetes was independently associated with less education, but more assets. Hypertension, central obesity and hypertriglyceridaemia, but not hypercholesterolaemia were consistently associated with total diabetes.

Conclusions

Diabetes prevalence is already high in most sites. Identifying undiagnosed cases is essential to quantify population burden, particularly in least developed settings where diagnosis is uncommon. Metabolic risk factors and associated lifestyles may play an important part in aetiology, but this requires confirmation with longitudinal data. Given the high prevalence among older people, more population research is indicated to quantify the impact of diabetes, and to monitor the effect of prevention and health system strengthening on prevalence, treatment and control.     

Prevalence of Chagas Disease in Latin-American Migrants Living in Europe: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background

Few studies have assessed the burden of Chagas disease in non-endemic countries and most of them are based on prevalence estimates from Latin American (LA) countries that likely differ from the prevalence in migrants living in Europe. The aim of this study was to systematically review the existing data informing current understanding of the prevalence of Chagas disease in LA migrants living in European countries.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting prevalence of Chagas disease in European countries belonging to the European Union (EU) before 2004 in accordance with the MOOSE guidelines and based on the database sources MEDLINE and Global Health. No restrictions were placed on study date, study design or language of publication. The pooled prevalence was estimated using random effect models based on DerSimonian & Laird method.

Results

We identified 18 studies conducted in five European countries. The random effect pooled prevalence was 4.2% (95%CI:2.2-6.7%); and the heterogeneity of Chagas disease prevalence among studies was high (I2 = 97%,p<0.001). Migrants from Bolivia had the highest prevalence of Chagas disease (18.1%, 95%CI:13.9–22.7%).

Conclusions

Prevalence of Chagas in LA migrants living in Europe is high, particularly in migrants from Bolivia and Paraguay. Data are highly heterogeneous dependent upon country of origin and within studies of migrants from the same country of origin. Country-specific prevalence differs from the estimates available from LA countries. Our meta-analysis provides prevalence estimates of Chagas disease that should be used to estimate the burden of disease in European countries.     

Epidemiology of Major Depressive Disorder in Mainland China: A Systematic Review

Background

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is one of the important causes of disease burden in the general population. Given the experiencing rapid economic and social changes since the early 1990s and the internationally recognized diagnostic criteria and interview instruments across the surveys during 2001–2010 in china, the epidemiological studies on MDD got varied results. We performed this meta-analysis to investigate current, 12-month and lifetime prevalence rates of MDD in mainland China.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Chinese Biological Medical Literature database (CBM), Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure database (CNKI), and the Chinese Wanfang and Chongqing VIP database were searched for associated studies. We estimated the overall prevalence of MDD using meta-analysis.

Conclusions

Seventeen eligible studies were included. Our study showed that the overall estimation of current, 12-month and lifetime prevalence of MDD was 1.6, 2.3, 3.3%, respectively. The current prevalence was 2.0 and 1.7% in rural and urban areas, respectively; between female and male, it was 2.1 and 1.3%, respectively. In addition, the current prevalence of MDD diagnosed with SCID (Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV) was 1.8% and that diagnosed with CIDI (Composite International Diagnostic Interview) was 1.1%. In conclusion, our study revealed a relatively high prevalence rate in the lifetime prevalence of MDD. For current prevalence, MDD diagnosed with SCID had a higher prevalence rate than with CIDI; males showed a lower rate than females, rural residents seemed to have a greater risk of MDD than urban residents.     

Hepatitis B,Hepatitis C and HIV-1 Coinfection in Two Informal Urban Settlements in Nairobi,Kenya

Background

HIV-1 and Hepatitis B and C viruses coinfection is common in Sub-Saharan Africa due to similar routes of transmission and high levels of poverty. Most studies on HIV-1 and Hepatitis B and C viruses have occurred in hospital settings and blood transfusion units. Data on Hepatitis B and C viruses and HIV-1 coinfection in informal urban settlements in Kenya are scanty, yet they could partly explain the disproportionately high morbidity and mortality associated with HIV-1 infections in these slums.

Objectives

The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of HIV and Hepatitis B and C dual infection in urban slums in Nairobi.

Methods

Blood samples were collected from residents of Viwandani and Korogocho between 2006 and 2007. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain socio-demographic data from participants. Samples were screened for Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), anti-HCV and anti-HIV-1. Statistical analysis was done using STATA.

Results

Samples were successfully collected from 418 (32%) men and 890 (68%) females. The HIV-1, HBV and HCV prevalence was 20.4%, 13.3% and 0.76% respectively at the time of the study. Of the 268 (20.4%) HIV-1 positive participants, 56 (4.26%) had HBV while 6 (0.46%) had HCV. Of the 1041 HIV-1 negative participants, 117 (8.9%) had HBV while 4 (0.31%) had HCV. Only two people (0.15%) were co-infected with all the three viruses together.

Discussion

The odds of getting hepatitis infection were higher in HIV-1 participants (for HBV OR 2.08,p<0.005 and for HCV OR 5.93, p<0.005). HIV prevalence rates were similar in both informal settlements. HIV infection was highest in age group 35-39 years and among the divorced/separated or widowed. Prevalence of all viruses was highest in those who did not have any formal education.

Conclusion

The HIV prevalence in these informal settlements suggests a higher rate than what is observed nationally. The prevalence rates of HBV are significantly higher in the HIV-1 positive and negative populations. HCV as well as triple HIV-1, HBV and HCV coinfection are uncommon in Korogocho and Viwandani. This clearly indicates the need for HIV-1 control programmes and hepatitis B virus vaccination to be promoted through public awareness as preventive strategy.     

Factors Associated with Variations in Population HIV Prevalence across West Africa: Findings from an Ecological Analysis

Background

Population HIV prevalence across West Africa varies substantially. We assess the national epidemiological and behavioural factors associated with this.

Methods

National, urban and rural data on HIV prevalence, the percentage of younger (15–24) and older (25–49) women and men reporting multiple (2+) partners in the past year, HIV prevalence among female sex workers (FSWs), men who have bought sex in the past year (clients), and ART coverage, were compiled for 13 countries. An Ecological analysis using linear regression assessed which factors are associated with national variations in population female and male HIV prevalence, and with each other.

Findings

National population HIV prevalence varies between 0 4–2 9% for men and 0 4–5.6% for women. ART coverage ranges from 6–23%. National variations in HIV prevalence are not shown to be associated with variations in HIV prevalence among FSWs or clients. Instead they are associated with variations in the percentage of younger and older males and females reporting multiple partners. HIV prevalence is weakly negatively associated with ART coverage, implying it is not increased survival that is the cause of variations in HIV prevalence. FSWs and younger female HIV prevalence are associated with client population sizes, especially older men. Younger female HIV prevalence is strongly associated with older male and female HIV prevalence.

Interpretation

In West Africa, population HIV prevalence is not significantly higher in countries with high FSW HIV prevalence. Our analysis suggests, higher prevalence occurs where more men buy sex, and where a higher percentage of younger women, and older men and women have multiple partnerships. If a sexual network between clients and young females exists, clients may potentially bridge infection to younger females. HIV prevention should focus both on commercial sex and transmission between clients and younger females with multiple partners.     

The Epidemiology of Hepatitis C Virus in the Maghreb Region: Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses

Objective

To systematically review and synthesize available epidemiological data on hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence and incidence in the Maghreb region and to estimate the country-specific population-level HCV prevalence.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of HCV antibody prevalence and incidence in the Maghreb countries as outlined by the PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were conducted using DerSimonian-Laird random-effect models with inverse variance weighting to pool HCV prevalence estimates among general population groups.

Results

We identified 133 HCV prevalence measures and two HCV incidence measures. Among high risk groups, HCV prevalence ranged between 22% and 94% among people who inject drugs, 20% and 76% among dialysis patients, and 2% and 51% among hemophiliacs. Among intermediate-risk groups, considerable but widely variable HCV prevalence was found. Most common risk factors cited across studies were the duration of dialysis, number of transfusions, and having a history of surgery or dental work. The national HCV prevalence in Algeria was estimated at 0.3% (95%CI: 0.1–0.5), Libya 1.2% (95%CI: 1.1–1.3), Mauritania 1.1% (95%CI: 0–2.3), Morocco 0.8% (95%CI: 0.5–1.2), and Tunisia 0.6% (95%CI: 0.5–0.8).

Conclusions

HCV prevalence in the Maghreb region of the Middle East and North Africa is comparable to that in developed countries of about 1%. HCV exposures appear often to be linked to medical care and are suggestive of ongoing transmission in such settings. Injecting drug use appears also to be a major, though not dominant, contributor to HCV transmission. Further research is needed to draw a more thorough understanding of HCV epidemiology, especially in the countries with limited number of studies. HCV prevention policy and programming in these countries should focus on the settings of exposure.     

Differing Methods and Definitions Influence DALY estimates: Using Population-Based Data to Calculate the Burden of Convulsive Epilepsy in Rural South Africa

Background

The disability adjusted life year (DALY) is a composite measure of disease burden that includes both morbidity and mortality, and is relevant to conditions such as epilepsy that can limit productive functioning. The 2010 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study introduced a number of new methods and definitions, including a prevalence-based approach and revised disability weights to calculate morbidity and new standard life expectancies to calculate premature mortality. We used these approaches, and local, population-based data, to estimate the burden of convulsive epilepsy in rural South Africa.

Methods & Findings

Comprehensive prevalence, incidence and mortality data on convulsive epilepsy were collected within the Agincourt sub-district in rural northeastern South Africa between 2008 and 2012. We estimated DALYs using both prevalence- and incidence-based approaches for calculating years of life lived with disability. Additionally, we explored how changing the disease model by varying the disability weights influenced DALY estimates. Using the prevalence-based approach, convulsive epilepsy in Agincourt resulted in 332 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 216–455) and 4.1 DALYs per 1,000 individuals (95%UI: 2.7–5.7) annually. Of this, 26% was due to morbidity while 74% was due to premature mortality. DALYs increased by 10% when using the incidence-based method. Varying the disability weight from 0.072 (treated epilepsy, seizure free) to 0.657 (severe epilepsy) caused years lived with disability to increase from 18 (95%UI: 16–19) to 161 (95%UI: 143–170).

Conclusions

DALY estimates are influenced by both the methods applied and population parameters used in the calculation. Irrespective of method, a significant burden of epilepsy is due to premature mortality in rural South Africa, with a lower burden than rural Kenya. Researchers and national policymakers should carefully interrogate the methods and data used to calculate DALYs as this will influence policy priorities and resource allocation.     

High Burden of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infection among Young Women in KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Objectives

HPV infection causes cervical cancer, yet information on prevalence and risk factors for HPV in Africa remain sparse. This study describes the prevalence of HPV genotypes and risk factors associated with HPV among young women ≤ 30 years of age in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa.

Methods

Cervicovaginal lavage samples were tested for HPV genotypes in 224 women enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Clinical, behavioural and demographic data were collected. We measured prevalence of HPV genotypes and using logistic regression, examined for factors associated with HPV.

Results

Median age of participants was 21 years [interquartile range (IQR):18–23]. The overall prevalence of HPV was 76.3% (171/224) with multiple and single genotypes prevalent in 56.3% and 20.1% of women respectively. Proportion of women with high-risk genotypes (16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56 and 58) was 54.5%. Women not living with their partner [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)] = 3.42 95% CI1.22–9.60; p = 0.019), was significantly associated with HPV infection and high-risk HPV genotype infection.

Conclusion

The high burden of HPV and associated risk behaviours highlight the need to intensify behavioural interventions to prevent HPV acquisition in young women. The large scale delivery of HPV vaccine should be prioritised to prevent HPV acquisition and reduce HPV-related morbidity.     

Access to CD4 Testing for Rural HIV Patients: Findings from a Cohort Study in Zimbabwe

Background

CD4 cell count measurement remains an important diagnostic tool for HIV care in developing countries. Insufficient laboratory capacity in rural Sub-Saharan Africa is frequently mentioned but data on the impact at an individual patient level are lacking. Urban-rural discrepancies in CD4 testing have not been quantified to date. Such evidence is crucial for public health planning and to justify new yet more expensive diagnostic procedures that could circumvent access constraints in rural areas.

Objective

To compare CD4 testing among rural and urban HIV patients during the first year of treatment.

Methods

Records from 2,145 HIV positive adult patients from a Médecins sans Frontières (Doctors without Borders) HIV project in Beitbridge, Zimbabwe, during 2011 and 2012 were used for a retrospective cohort analysis. Covariate-adjusted risk ratios were calculated to estimate the effects of area of residence on CD4 testing at treatment initiation, six and 12 months among rural and urban patients.

Findings

While the proportion of HIV patients returning for medical consultations at six and 12 months decreased at a similar rate in both patient groups, CD4 testing during consultations dropped to 21% and 8% for urban, and 2% and 1% for rural patients at six and 12 months, respectively. Risk ratios for missing CD4 testing were 0.8 (95% CI 0.7-0.9), 9.2 (95% CI 5.5-15.3), and 7.6 (95% 3.7-17.1) comparing rural versus urban patients at treatment initiation, six and 12 months, respectively.

Conclusions

CD4 testing was low overall, and particularly poor in rural patients. Difficulties with specimen transportation were probably a major factor underlying this difference and requires new diagnostic approaches. Our findings point to severe health system constraints in providing CD4 testing overall that need to be addressed if effective monitoring of HIV patients is to be achieved, whether by alternative CD4 diagnostics or newly-recommended routine viral load testing.     

Prevalence and Geographical Variation of Prothrombin G20210A Mutation in Patients with Cerebral Vein Thrombosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Objectives

To compare the prevalence of prothrombin G20210A in patients with objectively confirmed cerebral vein or cortical vein thrombosis against healthy controls, and evaluate geographical variations.

Design

Systematic review and meta-analysis of case control studies.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of electronic databases including MEDLINE and EMBASE. The main outcome was the prevalence of prothrombin G20210A in patients with objectively confirmed cerebral vein or cortical vein thrombosis; we also analyzed individual country variations in the prevalence. The random-effects model OR was used as the primary outcome measure.

Results

In total 19 studies evaluated 868 cases of cerebral venous thrombosis and 3981 controls. Prothrombin G20210A was found in 103/868 of the patients with cerebral venous thrombosis and 105/3999 of the healthy controls [random effects pooled OR 5.838, 95% CI 3.96 to 8.58; I²17.9%]. The prevalence of prothrombin G20210A was significantly elevated in Italian studies (OR 9.69), in Brazilian studies (OR 7.02), and in German studies (OR 3.77), but not in Iranian studies (OR 0.98).

Conclusion

Prothrombin G20210A is significantly associated with cerebral venous thrombosis when compared to healthy controls, although this association is highly dependent on the country of origin.     

Household Factors Associated with Self-Harm in Johannesburg,South African Urban-Poor Households

Introduction

Low and middle income countries bear the majority burden of self-harm, yet there is a paucity of evidence detailing risk-factors for self-harm in these populations. This study aims to identify environmental, socio-economic and demographic household-level risk factors for self-harm in five impoverished urban communities in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Methods

Annual serial cross-sectional surveys were undertaken in five impoverished urban communities in Johannesburg for the Health, Environment and Development (HEAD) study. Logistic regression analysis using the HEAD study data (2006–2011) was conducted to identify household-level risk factors associated with self-harm (defined as a self-reported case of a fatal or non-fatal suicide attempt) within the household during the preceding year. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to identify factors associated with self-harm.

Results

A total of 2 795 household interviews were conducted from 2006 to 2011. There was no significant trend in self-harm over time. Results from the final model showed that self-harm was significantly associated with households exposed to a violent crime during the past year (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 5.72; 95% CI 1.64–19.97); that have a member suffering from a chronic medical condition (AOR 8.95; 95% 2.39–33.56) and households exposed to indoor smoking (AOR 4.39; CI 95% 1.14–16.47).

Conclusion

This study provides evidence on household risk factors of self-harm in settings of urban poverty and has highlighted the potential for a more cost-effective approach to identifying those at risk of self-harm based on household level factors.     

Estimating the Prevalence and Awareness Rates of Hypertension in Africa: A Systematic Analysis

Background

The burden of hypertension is high in Africa, and due to rapid population growth and ageing, the exact burden on the continent is still far from being known. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and awareness rates of hypertension in Africa based on the cut off “≥140/90 mm Hg”.

Methods

We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health. Search date was set from January 1980 to December 2013. We included population-based studies on hypertension, conducted among people aged ≥15 years and providing numerical estimates on the prevalence of hypertension in Africa. Overall pooled prevalence of hypertension in mixed, rural and urban settings in Africa were estimated from reported crude prevalence rates. A meta-regression epidemiological modelling, using United Nations population demographics for the years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2030, was applied to determine the prevalence rates and number of cases of hypertension in Africa separately for these four years.

Results

Our search returned 7680 publications, 92 of which met the selection criteria. The overall pooled prevalence of hypertension in Africa was 19.7% in 1990, 27.4% in 2000 and 30.8% in 2010, each with a pooled awareness rate (expressed as percentage of hypertensive cases) of 16.9%, 29.2% and 33.7%, respectively. From the modelling, over 54.6 million cases of hypertension were estimated in 1990, 92.3 million cases in 2000, 130.2 million cases in 2010, and a projected increase to 216.8 million cases of hypertension by 2030; each with an age-adjusted prevalence of 19.1% (13.9, 25.5), 24.3% (23.3, 31.6), 25.9% (23.5, 34.0), and 25.3% (24.3, 39.7), respectively.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest the prevalence of hypertension is increasing in Africa, and many hypertensive individuals are not aware of their condition. We hope this research will prompt appropriate policy response towards improving the awareness, control and overall management of hypertension in Africa.