Temporal transferability of wildlife habitat models: implications for habitat monitoring

Aim Temporal transferability is an important issue when habitat models are used beyond the time frame corresponding to model development, but has not received enough attention, particularly in the context of habitat monitoring. While the combination of remote sensing technology and habitat modelling provides a useful tool for habitat monitoring, the effect of incorporating remotely sensed data on model transferability is unclear. Therefore, our objectives were to assess how different satellite‐derived variables affect temporal transferability of habitat models and their usefulness for habitat monitoring. Location Wolong Nature Reserve, Sichuan Province, China. Methods We modelled giant panda habitat with the maximum entropy algorithm using panda presence data collected in two time periods and four different sets of predictor variables representing land surface phenology. Each predictor variable set contained either a time series of smoothed wide dynamic range vegetation index (WDRVI) or 11 phenology metrics, both derived from single‐year or multi‐year (i.e. 3‐year) remotely sensed imagery acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We evaluated the ability of models obtained with these four variable sets to predict giant panda habitat within and across time periods by using threshold‐independent and threshold‐dependent evaluation methods and five indices of temporal transferability. Results Our results showed that models developed with the four variable sets were all useful for characterizing and monitoring giant panda habitat. However, the models developed using multi‐year data exhibited significantly higher temporal transferability than those developed using single‐year data. In addition, models developed with phenology metrics, especially when using multi‐year data, exhibited significantly higher temporal transferability than those developed with the time series. Main conclusions The integration of land surface phenology, captured by high temporal resolution remotely sensed imagery, with habitat modelling constitutes a suitable tool for characterizing wildlife habitat and monitoring its temporal dynamics. Using multi‐year phenology metrics reduces model complexity, multicollinearity among predictor variables and variability caused by inter‐annual climatic fluctuations, thereby increasing the temporal transferability of models. This study provides useful guidance for habitat monitoring through the integration of remote sensing technology and habitat modelling, which may be useful for the conservation of the giant panda and many other species.     

Land Surface Phenology in the Tropics: The Role of Climate and Topography in a Snow-Free Mountain

Leaf phenology represents a major temporal component of ecosystem functioning, and understanding the drivers of seasonal variation in phenology is essential to understand plant responses to climate change. We assessed the patterns and drivers of land surface phenology, a proxy for leafing phenology, for the meridional Espinhaço Range, a South American tropical mountain comprising a mosaic of savannas, dry woodlands, montane vegetation and moist forests. We used a 14-year time series of MODIS/NDVI satellite images, acquired between 2001 and 2015, and extracted phenological indicators using the TIMESAT algorithm. We obtained precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, land surface temperature from the MODIS MOD11A2 product, and cloud cover frequency from the MODIS MOD09GA product. We also calculated the topographic wetness index and simulated clear-sky radiation budgets based on the SRTM elevation model. The relationship between phenology and environmental drivers was assessed using general linear models. Temporal displacement in the start date of the annual growth season was more evident than variations in season length among vegetation types, indicating a possible temporal separation in the use of resources. Season length was inversely proportional to elevation, decreasing 1.58 days per 100 m. Green-up and senescence rates were faster where annual temperature amplitude was higher. We found that water and light availability, modulated by topography, are the most likely drivers of land surface phenology in the region, determining the start, end and length of the growing season. Temperature had an important role in determining the rates of leaf development and the strength of vegetation seasonality, suggesting that tropical vegetation is also sensitive to latitudinal temperature changes, regardless of the elevational gradient. Our work improves the current understanding of phenological strategies in the seasonal tropics and emphasizes the importance of topography in shaping light and water availability for leaf development in snow-free mountains.     

基于中高分辨率遥感的植被覆盖度时相变换方法

植被覆盖度是衡量地表植被状况、指示生态环境变化的一个重要指标,也是许多学科的重要参数。传统的测量方法难以获取时间连续的面状数据,且耗时、耗力,很难大范围推广。遥感估算方法虽然可以弥补传统方法的不足,但由于云覆盖等天气条件的影响,获得同一时相覆盖整个研究区的遥感影像非常困难,时相的差异必然导致研究结果产生误差。针对植被覆盖度这一重要生态参数,结合低分辨率遥感数据的时间优势和中高分辨率遥感数据的空间优势,提出一种时相变换方法,将源于中高分辨率影像的植被覆盖度变换到研究需要的时相上。首先,利用像元二分模型计算MODIS尺度的时间序列植被覆盖度,并利用已经获得的SPOT影像计算其获取时相上的植被覆盖度;其次,利用土地利用图划分植被覆盖类型,并利用MODIS数据和土地利用数据之间的空间对应关系制作MODIS像元内各类植被覆盖的面积百分比数据;再次,利用面积百分比数据提取各类植被覆盖的纯像元,结合MODIS植被覆盖度时间序列,从而提取各类植被覆盖纯像元的植被覆盖度时间序列曲线;最后利用像元分解的方法提取MODIS像元内各类植被覆盖组分的植被覆盖度的变化规律,将其应用到该组分对应位置上SPOT像元的植被覆盖度上,从而将其变换到所需要的时相上。在密云水库上游进行试验,将覆盖研究区的10景SPOT5多光谱影像计算的植被覆盖度统一变换到7月上旬,结果显示:视觉效果上明显好转,且空间上连续一致;变换前后植被覆盖度的统计量对比结果也符合植被生长规律;利用外业样点数据与对应位置的植被覆盖度变换结果进行回归分析,结果发现各植被覆盖类型的R2均在0.8左右,表明变换结果与实测值非常接近,时相变换的效果较好,从而可以很好地促进相关研究精度的提高。     

基于MODIS时序数据的黑龙江流域火烧迹地提取

火烧迹地信息是研究火灾的重要参数和基础数据,也是研究全球生态系统和碳循环扰动的重要依据之一。以受森林火灾影响较为严重的黑龙江流域为研究区,以MODIS时间序列数据为数据源建立了一个分为两阶段的火烧基地提取算法(即首先设定较为严格的提取条件对最有可能发生火灾的像元——核心像元进行提取,然后设定较为宽松的阈值提取距离核心像元一定范围内的火烧像元),对2000—2011年的火烧迹地信息进行了提取,生成了研究区长时间序列火烧迹地分布图,并对其时空分布特征进行了分析。选择黑龙江省为典型验证区对算法精度进行了验证,结果显示算法的整体精度较之以往的算法有了一定程度的提高。     

Monitoring rapid vegetation succession in estuarine wetland using time series MODIS-based indicators: An application in the Yangtze River Delta area

Frequent and continuous time series is required for the detection of plant phenology and vegetation succession. The launch of novel remote sensor MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) provided us with an opportunity to make a new trial of studying the rapid vegetation succession in estuarine wetlands. In this study, the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation cover and tidal flat elevation along a transect (covering 6 pixels of MODIS) of an estuarine wetland at Dongtan, Chongming Island, in Yangtze River estuary, China were investigated to assess its rapid vegetation succession and physical conditions. By combining the field data collected, the time series of MODIS-based VIs (vegetation indices), including NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), EVI (enhanced vegetation index) and MSAVI (modified soil adjusted vegetation index), and a water index, LSWI (land surface water index) were utilized to characterize the rapid vegetation succession between 2001 and 2006. We found that NDVI, EVI and MSAVI exhibited significant spatial and temporal correlations with vegetation succession, while LSWI behaved in a positive manner with surface water and soil moisture along with the successional stages. In order to take the advantages of both VIs and water index, a composite index of VWR (vegetation water ratio) combining LSWI and EVI or MSAVI was proposed in this paper. This index facilitates the identification of vegetation succession by simply comparing the values of VWR at different stages, and therefore it could track vegetation succession and estimate community spread rate. Additionally, this study presented an attempt of using MODIS datasets to monitor the change of tidal flat elevation, which demonstrated a potential remote sensing application in geodesy of coastal and estuarine areas.     

A new land-cover map of Africa for the year 2000

Aim In the framework of the Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC 2000), a land‐cover map of Africa has been produced at a spatial resolution of 1 km using data from four sensors on‐board four different Earth observing satellites. Location The map documents the location and distribution of major vegetation types and non‐vegetated land surface formations for the entire African continent plus Madagascar and the other surrounding islands. Methods The bulk of these data were acquired on a daily basis throughout the year 2000 by the VEGETATION sensor on‐board the SPOT‐4 satellite. The map of vegetation cover has been produced based upon the spectral response and the temporal profile of the vegetation cover. Digital image processing and geographical information systems techniques were employed, together with local knowledge, high resolution imagery and expert consultation, to compile a cartographic map product. Radar data and thermal sensors were also used for specific land‐cover classes. Results A total of 27 land cover categories are documented, which has more thematic classes than previously published land cover maps of Africa contain. Systematic comparison with existing land cover data and 30‐m resolution imagery from Landsat are presented, and the map is also compared with other pan‐continental land cover maps. The map and digital data base are freely available for non‐commercial uses from http://www.gvm.jrc.it/tem/africa/products.htm Main conclusions The map improves our state of knowledge of the land‐cover of Africa and presents the most spatially detailed view yet published at this scale. This first version of the map should provide an important input for regional stratification and planning purposes for natural resources, biodiversity and climate studies.     

Detecting soil salinity with MODIS time series VI data

Mapping of salinization using the satellite derived vegetation indices (VIs) remains difficult at broad regional scales due to the low classification accuracy. Satellite derived VIs from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) have more potential because the MODIS balances the requirements of spatial detail, spectral and temporal density and tends to reflect vegetation responses through time. However, the relationship between MODIS data and salinity may be underestimated in previous studies because the MODIS time series data were not investigated thoroughly, especially regarding vegetation phenology. This study assessed the applicability of MODIS time series VI data for monitoring soil salinization with a series of MODIS pixels selected in the Yellow River Delta, China. The hidden information in vegetation phenology was investigated by improving the quality of VIs time series data with the Savitzky–Golay filter, extracting the phenological markers and differentiating VIs time series data based on vegetation types. The results showed that the quality of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) time series data were improved by the Savitzky–Golay filter, which could provide more accurate thresholds of phenological stages than the empirical definition. The seasonal integral of EVI (EVI-SI) extracted from the smoothed EVI time series profile was verified as the best indicator of the degree of soil salinity. Additionally, the correlation of EVI-SI and soil salinity was highly dependent on land cover heterogeneity, and the ranges of correlation coefficients were as high as 0.59–0.92. EVI-SI was linearly correlated with EC_e in cropland with a high model fit (R² = 0.85). The relationship of EVI-SI and EC_e fit best with a binomial line and EVI-SI was able to explain 70% of the variance of EC_e. Despite the poor fit of the linear regression model in mixed sites limited by spatial resolution (R² = 0.32), MODIS time series VI data, as well as the extracted seasonal parameters, still show great potential to assess large-scale soil salinization.     

遥感用于森林生物多样性监测的进展

随着物种和栖息地的丧失,全球范围的生物多样性保护已经成为迫切的需要。航空航天技术的迅猛发展使遥感成为能提供跨越不同时空尺度监测陆地生态系统生物多样性的重要工具,这方面的研究在欧美等国已经有了小范围的开展,在国内刚刚起步。国外关于生物多样性遥感探测的方法基本有3种:1.利用遥感数据直接对物种或生境制图,进而估算生物多样性;2 .建立遥感数据的光谱反射率与地面观测物种多样性的关系模型;3.与野外调查数据结合直接在遥感数据上进行生物多样性指数制图。研究表明,物种直接制图法只能应用于较小的范围;生境制图的方法,应用广泛,技术相对成熟,研究范围局限于几百公里的范畴,但不能获取生境内部的多样性信息。光谱模型技术目前正处于探索阶段,对于植被复杂、生物多样性高的地域,具有较大的应用潜力。在遥感数据上直接进行生物多样性制图在加拿大已经得到了应用。     

Differentiating geological fertility derived vegetation zones in Kruger National Park,South Africa,using Landsat and MODIS imagery

Spatial technologies present possibilities for producing frequently updated and accurate habitat maps, which are important in biodiversity conservation. Assemblages of vegetation are equivalent to habitats. This study examined the use of satellite imagery in vegetation differentiation in South Africa's Kruger National Park (KNP). A vegetation classification scheme based on dominant tree species but also related to the park's geology was tested, the geology generally consisting of high and low fertility lithology. Currently available multispectral satellite imagery is broadly either of high spatial but low temporal resolution or low spatial but high temporal resolution. Landsat TM/ETM+ and MODIS images were used to represent these broad categories. Rain season dates were selected as the period when discrimination between key habitats in KNP is most likely to be successful. Principal Component Analysis enhanced vegetated areas on the Landsat images, while NDVI vegetation enhancement was employed on the MODIS image. The images were classified into six field sampling derived classes depicting a vegetation density and phenology gradient, with high (about 89%) indicative classification accuracy. The results indicate that, using image processing procedures that enhance vegetation density, image classification can be used to map the park's vegetation at the high versus low geological fertility zone level, to accuracies above 80% on high spatial resolution imagery and slightly lower accuracy on lower spatial resolution imagery. Rainfall just prior to the image date influences herbaceous vegetation and, therefore, success at image scene vegetation mapping, while cloud cover limits image availability. Small scale habitat differentiation using multispectral satellite imagery for large protected savanna areas appears feasible, indicating the potential for use of remote sensing in savanna habitat monitoring. However, factors affecting successful habitat mapping need to be considered. Therefore, adoption of remote sensing in vegetation mapping and monitoring for large protected savanna areas merits consideration by conservation agencies.     

Detection of climate change‐driven trends in phytoplankton phenology

The timing of the annual phytoplankton spring bloom is likely to be altered in response to climate change. Quantifying that response has, however, been limited by the typically coarse temporal resolution (monthly) of global climate models. Here, we use higher resolution model output (maximum 5 days) to investigate how phytoplankton bloom timing changes in response to projected 21st century climate change, and how the temporal resolution of data influences the detection of long‐term trends. We find that bloom timing generally shifts later at mid‐latitudes and earlier at high and low latitudes by ~5 days per decade to 2100. The spatial patterns of bloom timing are similar in both low (monthly) and high (5 day) resolution data, although initiation dates are later at low resolution. The magnitude of the trends in bloom timing from 2006 to 2100 is very similar at high and low resolution, with the result that the number of years of data needed to detect a trend in phytoplankton phenology is relatively insensitive to data temporal resolution. We also investigate the influence of spatial scales on bloom timing and find that trends are generally more rapidly detectable after spatial averaging of data. Our results suggest that, if pinpointing the start date of the spring bloom is the priority, the highest possible temporal resolution data should be used. However, if the priority is detecting long‐term trends in bloom timing, data at a temporal resolution of 20 days are likely to be sufficient. Furthermore, our results suggest that data sources which allow for spatial averaging will promote more rapid trend detection.     

Predicting insect phenology across space and time

Many species appear to be undergoing shifts in phenology, arising from climate change. To predict the direction and magnitude of future changes requires an understanding of how phenology depends on climatic variation. Species show large‐scale spatial variation in phenology (affected by differentiation among populations) as well as variation in phenology from year‐to‐year at the same site (affected predominantly by local plasticity). Teasing apart spatial and temporal variation in phenology should allow improved predictions of phenology under climate change. This study is the first to quantify large‐scale spatial and temporal variation in the entire emergence pattern of species, and to test the relationships found by predicting future data. We use data from up to 33 years of permanent transect records of butterflies in the United Kingdom to fit and test models for 15 butterfly species. We use generalized additive models to model spatial and temporal variation in the distribution of adult butterflies over the season, allowing us to capture changes in the timing of emergence peaks, relative sizes of peaks and/or number of peaks in a single analysis. We develop these models using data for 1973–2000, and then use them to predict phenologies from 2001 to 2006. For six of our study species, a model with only spatial variation in phenology is the best predictor of the future, implying that these species have limited plasticity. For the remaining nine species, the best predictions come from a model with both spatial and temporal variation in phenology; for four of these, growing degree‐days have similar effects over space and time, implying high levels of plasticity. The results show that statistical phenology models can be used to predict phenology shifts in a second time period, suggesting that it should be feasible to project phenologies under climate change scenarios, at least over modest time scales.     

航空航天遥感在物种多样性研究与保护中的应用

人类活动导致全球范围内生物多样性丧失日趋严重。物种多样性是研究最为深入以及最贴近生物多样性管理的层次。物种多样性的研究往往受到多时空尺度生态过程的影响, 传统物种多样性调查方法受到人力物力影响, 局限性大, 物种多样性的研究与管理亟需整合不同来源的数据。遥感技术从传统的光学遥感阶段发展到不同平台、不同维度相结合的多源遥感阶段, 并逐渐进入以高空间分辨率和高光谱为特征、以激光雷达为前沿发展方向的综合遥感阶段。遥感技术因为其监测范围广、能监测人迹罕至地区以及长期可重复等特性, 为研究不同时空尺度的生态学科学问题提供了更新更优的研究手段。本文围绕种群动态、种间关系与群落多样性、功能属性及功能多样性以及生物多样性保护管理等生物多样性研究热点问题, 系统地论述了航空航天遥感技术在物种多样性研究与保护领域的应用, 总结了航空航天遥感技术在研究与物种多样性有关的主要生态学问题中的机遇与挑战。我们认为航空航天遥感技术利用多光谱甚至高光谱与激光技术从空中监测物种多样性, 从不同视角、基于不同光源提供了物种多样性不同侧面的信息, 能够减小地面调查强度, 在大范围和边远地区的物种多样性调查研究中有着至关重要的作用。依据光谱特性的物种判别以及依据激光雷达的三维结构量测将促进生物多样性的研究与管理, 加强遥感学家和生物多样性研究者的沟通交流将有助于促进不同时空尺度的生物多样性与遥感技术的结合。     

A review and a framework for the integration of biodiversity monitoring at the habitat level

The monitoring of biodiversity at the level of habitats is becoming widespread in Europe and elsewhere as countries establish national habitat monitoring systems and various organisations initiate regional and local schemes. Parallel to this growth, it is increasingly important to address biodiversity changes on large spatial (e.g. continental) and temporal (e.g. decade-long) scales, which requires the integration of currently ongoing monitoring efforts. Here we review habitat monitoring and develop a framework for integrating data or activities across habitat monitoring schemes. We first identify three basic properties of monitoring activities: spatial aspect (explicitly spatial vs. non-spatial), documentation of spatial variation (field mapping vs. remote sensing) and coverage of habitats (all habitats or specific habitats in an area), and six classes of monitoring schemes based on these properties. Then we explore tasks essential for integrating schemes both within and across the major classes. Finally, we evaluate the need and potential for integration of currently existing schemes by drawing on data collected on European habitat monitoring in the EuMon project. Our results suggest a dire need for integration if we are to measure biodiversity changes across large spatial and temporal scales regarding the 2010 target and beyond. We also make recommendations for an integrated pan-European habitat monitoring scheme. Such a scheme should be based on remote sensing to record changes in land cover and habitat types over large scales, with complementary field mapping using unified methodology to provide ground truthing and to monitor small-scale changes, at least in habitat types of conservation importance.     

南京地区蒸散发降尺度研究--基于增强型时空自适应反射融合模型

蒸散发是水文循环的重要组成部分,获取高时空分辨率的数据能够更加精细化蒸散发的时空变化规律,对于水资源管理、生态水文过程量化具有重要意义。由于单一传感器反演的蒸散发无法同时具有高空间和高时间分辨率,以南京地区为例,首先结合Landsat-8遥感影像数据和气象数据,采用基于能量平衡原理的SEBS模型估算日蒸散量。在此基础上,选取典型区域采用基于增强型时空自适应反射融合模型(ESTARFM)将估算的蒸散发结果与低空间分辨率的MOD16A2蒸散发产品数据进行时空融合降尺度研究,并评价模型的融合精度。结果表明:(1)SEBS模型估算的蒸散发结果与蒸发皿折算后的数据、MOD16A2产品数据的平均相对误差分别为0.14 mm/d和0.22 mm/d。(2)南京地区蒸散量季节差异明显,表现为夏季＞秋季＞冬季;各区在夏季的日平均蒸散量差异也较大,六合区蒸散量最大,秦淮区最小;另外,蒸散量分布受土地利用类型的影响,总体上表现为水域＞林地＞耕地＞草地＞其他,且植被覆盖度较高的区域蒸散量较大。(3)基于ESTARFM模型融合的蒸散发结果与基于Landsat-8遥感影像反演的蒸散发数据在空间分布上具有相似性,二者相关系数为0.74。在全球气候变化的背景下,本研究可为蒸散发数据集时空分辨率的提高提供参考,同时也能够为南京地区水循环过程和水资源管理研究提供数据支撑。     

Terrestrial ecosystems from space: a review of earth observation products for macroecology applications

Aim Earth observation (EO) products are a valuable alternative to spectral vegetation indices. We discuss the availability of EO products for analysing patterns in macroecology, particularly related to vegetation, on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Location Global. Methods We discuss four groups of EO products: land cover/cover change, vegetation structure and ecosystem productivity, fire detection, and digital elevation models. We address important practical issues arising from their use, such as assumptions underlying product generation, product accuracy and product transferability between spatial scales. We investigate the potential of EO products for analysing terrestrial ecosystems. Results Land cover, productivity and fire products are generated from long‐term data using standardized algorithms to improve reliability in detecting change of land surfaces. Their global coverage renders them useful for macroecology. Their spatial resolution (e.g. GLOBCOVER vegetation, 300 m; MODIS vegetation and fire, ≥ 500 m; ASTER digital elevation, 30 m) can be a limiting factor. Canopy structure and productivity products are based on physical approaches and thus are independent of biome‐specific calibrations. Active fire locations are provided in near‐real time, while burnt area products show actual area burnt by fire. EO products can be assimilated into ecosystem models, and their validation information can be employed to calculate uncertainties during subsequent modelling. Main conclusions Owing to their global coverage and long‐term continuity, EO end products can significantly advance the field of macroecology. EO products allow analyses of spatial biodiversity, seasonal dynamics of biomass and productivity, and consequences of disturbances on regional to global scales. Remaining drawbacks include inter‐operability between products from different sensors and accuracy issues due to differences between assumptions and models underlying the generation of different EO products. Our review explains the nature of EO products and how they relate to particular ecological variables across scales to encourage their wider use in ecological applications.     

基于MODIS和ENVISAT数据的湖北省四湖地区土地覆盖分类

依据ENVISAT ASAR数据中后向散射系数的差异对湖北四湖地区的城镇、水域、植被覆盖区进行划分;根据区域种植制度及物候特点,以4月下旬至5月上旬MODIS-NDVI值区别植被覆盖区中的作物植被与非作物植被;并采用基于高分辨率ETM数据的土地分类结果对基于上述规则分类的结果进行验证.结果表明：借助DEM高程数据,可将研究区非作物植被划分为林地与滩地;利用月份NDVI平均值的差异,可将作物划分为中稻、棉花和晚稻,并获得水田和旱地的区分;采用低空间分辨率的MODIS数据获得的土地覆盖分类结果,与采用高分辨率ETM数据分类的结果具有一定程度的相似性,以ETM数据分类结果为标准的总误差率为13.15%;利用上述判别流程进行大尺度土地覆盖分类与制图可以实现对区域土地覆盖变化的快速跟踪.     

A Multilevel Analysis of the Impact of Land Use on Interannual Land-Cover Change in East Africa

Abstract The aim of this study was to characterize the short-term land-cover change processes that were detected in Eastern Africa, based on a set of change metrics that allow for the quantification of interannual changes in vegetation productivity, changes in vegetation phenology and a combination of both. We tested to what extent land use, fire activity and livestock grazing modified the vegetation response to short-term rainfall variability in East Africa and how this is reflected in change metrics derived from MODerate Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) time series of remote sensing data. We used a hierarchical approach to disentangle the contribution of human activities and climate variability to the patterns of short-term vegetation change in East Africa at different levels of organization. Our results clearly show that land use significantly influences the vegetation response to rainfall variability as measured by time series of MODIS data. Areas with different types of land use react in a different way to interannual climate variability, leading to different values of the change indices depending on the land use type. The impact of land use is more reflected in interannual variability of vegetation productivity and overall change in the vegetation, whereas changes in phenology are mainly driven by climate variability and affect most vegetation types in similar ways. Our multilevel approach led to improved models and clearly demonstrated that climate influence plays at a different scale than land use, fire and herbivore grazing. It helped us to understand dynamics within and between biomes in the study area and investigate the relative importance of different factors influencing short-term variability in change indices at different scales.     

A systematic review of vegetation phenology in Africa

The study of vegetation phenology is important because it is a sensitive indicator of climate changes and it regulates carbon, energy and water fluxes between the land and atmosphere. Africa, which has 17% of the global forest cover, contributes significantly to the global carbon budget and has been identified as potentially highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. In spite of this, very little is known about vegetation phenology across Africa and the factors regulating vegetation growth and dynamics. Hence, this review aimed to provide a synthesis of studies of related Africa's vegetation phenology and classify them based on the methods and techniques used in order to identify major research gaps. Significant increases in the number of phenological studies in the last decade were observed, with over 70% of studies adopting a satellite-based remote sensing approach to monitor vegetation phenology. Whereas ground based studies that provide detailed characterisation of vegetation phenological development, occurred rarely in the continent. Similarly, less than 14% of satellite-based remote sensing studies evaluated vegetation phenology at the continental scale using coarse spatial resolution datasets. Even more evident was the lack of research focusing on the impacts of climate change on vegetation phenology. Consequently, given the importance and the uniqueness of both methods of phenological assessment, there is need for more ground-based studies to enable greater understanding of phenology at the species level. Likewise, finer spatial resolution satellite sensor data for regional phenological assessment is required, with a greater focus on the relationship between climate change and vegetation phenological changes. This would contribute greatly to debates over climate change impacts and, most importantly, climate change mitigation strategies.     

中国土地利用空间格局动态变化模拟——以规划情景为例

土地利用变化研究在环境可持续发展研究领域中具有重要的地位,其空间分布格局的变化影响到生物地球化学循环、气候变化、生物多样性等。采用土地利用动态变化模型Dyna-CLUE模拟了在规划情景下中国土地利用变化未来空间分布格局。将土地利用类型分为六大类,即耕地、草地、林地、建设用地、水域和其它用地。驱动因子包括地形地貌、气候、社会交通等方面,对动态驱动因子如气温、降水、人口交通等,考虑了其在未来情景下的发展趋势。基于土地利用类型与驱动因子之间的定量关系和土地利用类型之间的转换规则等,模拟出至2020年中国土地利用分布格局。结果表明,至2020年,中国东南部、黄淮海平原、四川盆地等地区耕地面积将增加,东北、西北等农牧交错区、农林交错区和沙漠边缘耕地面积将会呈轻度减少趋势;林地面积将增加1417.91万hm2,主要发生在中国东北部以及西南部水热条件好的地区;中国草地在面积上保持稳定,空间上中东部、东南地区草地面积减少,内蒙古中部,青海东部,四川盆地北缘区和青藏高原等地面积增加;建设用地增加531.76万hm2,主要发生在中国的东部地区。     

Urban environments provide new perspectives for forecasting vegetation phenology responses under climate warming

Given that already-observed temperature increase within cities far exceeds the projected global temperature rise by the end of the century, urban environments often offer a unique opportunity for studying ecosystem response to future warming. However, the validity of thermal gradients in space serving as a substitute for those in time is rarely tested. Here, we investigated vegetation phenology dynamics in China's 343 cities and empirically test whether phenological responses to spatial temperature rise in urban settings can substitute for those to temporal temperature rise in their natural counterparts based on satellite-derived vegetation phenology and land surface temperature from 2003 to 2018. We found prevalent advancing spring phenology with “high confidence” and delaying autumn phenology with “medium confidence” under the context of widespread urban warming. Furthermore, we showed that space cannot substitute for time in predicting phenological shifts under climate warming at the national scale and for most cities. The thresholds of ~11°C mean annual temperature and ~600 mm annual precipitation differentiated the magnitude of phenological sensitivity to temperature across space and through time. Below those thresholds, there existed stronger advanced spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology across the spatial urbanization gradients than through time, and vice versa. Despite the complex and diverse relationships between phenological sensitivities across space and through time, we found that the directions of the temperature changes across spatial gradients were converged (i.e., mostly increased), but divergent through temporal gradients (i.e., increased or decreased without a predominant direction). Similarly, vegetation phenology changes more uniformly over space than through time. These results suggested that the urban environments provide a real-world condition to understand vegetation phenology response under future warming.