Developmental life history is associated with variation in rates of climatic niche evolution in a salamander adaptive radiation*

Rates of climatic niche evolution vary widely across the tree of life and are strongly associated with rates of diversification among clades. However, why the climatic niche evolves more rapidly in some clades than others remains unclear. Variation in life history traits often plays a key role in determining the environmental conditions under which species can survive, and therefore, could impact the rate at which lineages can expand in available climatic niche space. Here, we explore the relationships among life-history variation, climatic niche breadth, and rates of climatic niche evolution. We reconstruct a phylogeny for the genus Desmognathus, an adaptive radiation of salamanders distributed across eastern North America, based on nuclear and mitochondrial genes. Using this phylogeny, we estimate rates of climatic niche evolution for species with long, short, and no aquatic larval stage. Rates of climatic niche evolution are unrelated to the mean climatic niche breadth of species with different life histories. Instead, we find that the evolution of a short larval period promotes greater exploration of climatic space, leading to increased rates of climatic niche evolution across species having this trait. We propose that morphological and physiological differences associated with variation in larval stage length underlie the heterogeneous ability of lineages to explore climatic niche space. Rapid rates of climatic niche evolution among species with short larval periods were an important dimension of the clade's adaptive radiation and likely contributed to the rapid rate of lineage accumulation following the evolution of an aquatic life history in this clade. Our results show how variation in a key life-history trait can constrain or promote divergence of the climatic niche, leading to variation in rates of climatic niche evolution among species.     

Climatic niche evolution in turtles is characterized by phylogenetic conservatism for both aquatic and terrestrial species

Understanding how the climatic niche of species evolved has been a topic of high interest in current theoretical and applied macroecological studies. However, little is known regarding how species traits might influence climatic niche evolution. Here, we evaluated patterns of climatic niche evolution in turtles (tortoises and freshwater turtles) and whether species habitat (terrestrial or aquatic) influences these patterns. We used phylogenetic, climatic and distribution data for 261 species to estimate their climatic niches. Then, we compared whether niche overlap between sister species was higher than between random species pairs and evaluated whether niche optima and rates varied between aquatic and terrestrial species. Sister species had higher values of niche overlap than random species pairs, suggesting phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism in turtles. The climatic niche evolution of the group followed an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model with different optimum values for aquatic and terrestrial species, but we did not find consistent evidence of differences in their rates of climatic niche evolution. We conclude that phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism occurs among turtle species. Furthermore, terrestrial and aquatic species occupy different climatic niches but these seem to have evolved at similar evolutionary rates, reinforcing the importance of habitat in understanding species climatic niches and their evolution.     

Climatic niche conservatism and the evolutionary dynamics in species range boundaries: global congruence across mammals and amphibians

Aim Comparative evidence for phylogenetic niche conservatism – the tendency for lineages to retain their ancestral niches over long time scales – has so far been mixed, depending on spatial and taxonomic scale. We quantify and compare conservatism in the climatic factors defining range boundaries in extant continental mammals and amphibians in order to identify those factors that are most evolutionarily conserved, and thus hypothesized to have played a major role in determining the geographic distributions of many species. We also test whether amphibians show stronger signals of climatic niche conservatism, as expected from their greater physiological sensitivity and lower dispersal abilities. Location Global; continental land masses excluding Antarctica. Methods We used nearly complete global distributional databases to estimate the climatic niche conservatism in extant continental mammals and amphibians. We characterized the climatic niche of each species by using a suite of variables and separately investigate conservatism in each variable using both taxonomic and phylogenetic approaches. Finally, we explored the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns in recent climatic niche evolution. Results Amphibians and mammals showed congruent patterns of conservatism in cold tolerance, with assemblages of escapee species (i.e. those escaping most from the climatic constraints of their ancestors) aggregated in the North Temperate Zone. Main conclusions The relative strength of climatic niche conservatism varies across the variables tested, but is strongest for cold tolerance in both mammals and amphibians. Despite the apparent conservatism in this variable, there is also a strong signal of recent evolutionary shifts in cold tolerance in assemblages inhabiting the North Temperate Zone. Our results thus indicate that distribution patterns of both taxa are influenced by both niche conservatism and niche evolution.     

Phylogenetic conservatism and biogeographic affinity influence woody plant species richness–climate relationships in eastern Eurasia

Mechanisms underlying species richness patterns remain a central yet controversial issue in biology. Climate has been regarded as a major determinant of species richness. However, the relative influences of different evolutionary processes, (i.e. niche conservatism, diversification rate and time for speciation) on species richness–climate relationships remain to be tested. Here, using newly compiled distribution maps for 11 422 woody plant species in eastern Eurasia, we estimated species richness patterns for all species and for families with tropical and temperate affinities separately, and explored the phylogenetic signals in species richness patterns of different families and their relationships with contemporary climate and climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We further compared the effects of niche conservatism (represented by contemporary-ancestral climatic niches differences), diversification rate and time for speciation (represented by family age) on variation in the slopes of species richness–climate relationships. We found that winter coldness was the best predictor for species richness patterns of most tropical families while Quaternary climate change was the best predictor for those of most temperate families. Species richness patterns of closely-related families were more similar than those of distantly-related families within eudicots, and significant phylogenetic signals characterized the slopes of species richness–climate relationships across all angiosperm families. Contemporary-ancestral climatic niche differences dominated variation in the relationships between family-level species richness and most climate variables. Our results indicate significant phylogenetic conservatism in family-level species richness patterns and their relationships with contemporary climate within eudicots. These findings shed light on the mechanisms underlying large-scale species richness patterns and suggest that ancestral climatic niche may influence the evolution of species richness–climate relationships in plants through niche conservatism.     

An evolutionary perspective on leaf economics: phylogenetics of leaf mass per area in vascular plants

In plant leaves, resource use follows a trade‐off between rapid resource capture and conservative storage. This “worldwide leaf economics spectrum” consists of a suite of intercorrelated leaf traits, among which leaf mass per area, LMA, is one of the most fundamental as it indicates the cost of leaf construction and light‐interception borne by plants. We conducted a broad‐scale analysis of the evolutionary history of LMA across a large dataset of 5401 vascular plant species. The phylogenetic signal in LMA displayed low but significant conservatism, that is, leaf economics tended to be more similar among close relatives than expected by chance alone. Models of trait evolution indicated that LMA evolved under weak stabilizing selection. Moreover, results suggest that different optimal phenotypes evolved among large clades within which extremes tended to be selected against. Conservatism in LMA was strongly related to growth form, as were selection intensity and phenotypic evolutionary rates: woody plants showed higher conservatism in relation to stronger stabilizing selection and lower evolutionary rates compared to herbaceous taxa. The evolutionary history of LMA thus paints different evolutionary trajectories of vascular plant species across clades, revealing the coordination of leaf trait evolution with growth forms in response to varying selection regimes.     

Niche-tracking migrants and niche-switching residents: evolution of climatic niches in New World warblers (Parulidae)

Differences in life-history traits between tropical and temperate lineages are often attributed to differences in their climatic niche dynamics. For example, the more frequent appearance of migratory behaviour in temperate-breeding species than in species originally breeding in the tropics is believed to have resulted partly from tropical climatic stability and niche conservatism constraining tropical species from shifting their ranges. However, little is known about the patterns and processes underlying climatic niche evolution in migrant and resident animals. We evaluated the evolution of overlap in climatic niches between seasons and its relationship to migratory behaviour in the Parulidae, a family of New World passerine birds. We used ordination methods to measure seasonal niche overlap and niche breadth of 54 resident and 49 migrant species and used phylogenetic comparative methods to assess patterns of climatic niche evolution. We found that despite travelling thousands of kilometres, migrants tracked climatic conditions across the year to a greater extent than tropical residents. Migrant species had wider niches than resident species, although residents as a group occupied a wider climatic space and niches of migrants and residents overlapped extensively. Neither breeding latitude nor migratory distance explained variation among species in climatic niche overlap between seasons. Our findings support the notion that tropical species have narrower niches than temperate-breeders, but does not necessarily constrain their ability to shift or expand their geographical ranges and become migratory. Overall, the tropics may have been historically less likely to experience the suite of components that generate strong selection pressures for the evolution of migratory behaviour.     

Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species'' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change.     

Rapid lineage accumulation in a non-adaptive radiation: phylogenetic analysis of diversification rates in eastern North American woodland salamanders (Plethodontidae: Plethodon)

Adaptive radiations have served as model systems for quantifying the build-up of species richness. Few studies have quantified the tempo of diversification in species-rich clades that contain negligible adaptive disparity, making the macroevolutionary consequences of different modes of evolutionary radiation difficult to assess. We use mitochondrial-DNA sequence data and recently developed phylogenetic methodologies to explore the tempo of diversification of eastern North American Plethodon, a species-rich clade of woodland salamanders exhibiting only limited phenotypic disparity. Lineage-through-time analysis reveals a high rate of lineage accumulation, 0.8 species per million years, occurring 11-8 million years ago in the P. glutinosus species group, followed by decreasing rates. This high rate of lineage accumulation is exceptional, comparable to the most rapid of adaptive radiations. In contrast to classic models of adaptive radiation where ecological niche divergence is linked to the origin of species, we propose that phylogenetic niche conservatism contributes to the rapid accumulation of P. glutinosus-group lineages by promoting vicariant isolation and multiplication of species across a spatially and temporally fluctuating environment. These closely related and ecologically similar lineages persist through long-periods of evolutionary time and form strong barriers to the geographic spread of their neighbours, producing a subsequent decline in lineage accumulation. Rapid diversification among lineages exhibiting long-term maintenance of their bioclimatic niche requirements is an under-appreciated phenomenon driving the build-up of species richness.     

Why does the unimodal species richness–productivity relationship not apply to woody species: a lack of clonality or a legacy of tropical evolutionary history?

Aim  To study how differences in species richness patterns of woody and herbaceous plants may be influenced by ecological and evolutionary factors. Unimodal species richness–productivity relationships (SRPRs) have been of interest to ecologists since they were first described three decades ago for British herbaceous vegetation by J. P. Grime. The decrease in richness at high productivity may be due to competitive exclusion of subordinate species, or diverse factors related to evolution and dispersal. Unimodal SRPRs are most often reported for plants, but there are exceptions. For example, unimodal SRPRs are common in the temperate zone but not in the tropics. Similarly, woody species and forest communities in the Northern Hemisphere do not tend to show unimodal SRPRs.
Location  Global.
Methods  We used data from the literature to test whether a unimodal SRPR applies to woody species and forest communities on a global scale. We explored whether the shape of SRPRs may be related to the lack of clonality in woody species (which may prevent their being competitively superior), or the legacy of evolutionary history (most temperate woody species originate from tropical lineages, and due to niche conservatism they may still demonstrate 'tropical patterns'). We used case studies that reported the names of the dominant or most abundant species for productive sites.
Results  Woody species were indeed less clonal than herbaceous species. Both clonality and the temperate evolutionary background of dominating species were associated with unimodality in SRPRs, with woodiness modifying the clonality effect.
Main conclusions  The unimodal SRPR has been common in the ecological literature because most such studies originate from temperate herbaceous communities with many clonal species. Consequently, both evolutionary and ecological factors may influence species richness patterns.     

Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant

A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.     

Trophic specialization influences the rate of environmental niche evolution in damselfishes (Pomacentridae)

The rate of environmental niche evolution describes the capability of species to explore the available environmental space and is known to vary among species owing to lineage-specific factors. Trophic specialization is a main force driving species evolution and is responsible for classical examples of adaptive radiations in fishes. We investigate the effect of trophic specialization on the rate of environmental niche evolution in the damselfish, Pomacentridae, which is an important family of tropical reef fishes. First, phylogenetic niche conservatism is not detected in the family using a standard test of phylogenetic signal, and we demonstrate that the environmental niches of damselfishes that differ in trophic specialization are not equivalent while they still overlap at their mean values. Second, we estimate the relative rates of niche evolution on the phylogenetic tree and show the heterogeneity among rates of environmental niche evolution of the three trophic groups. We suggest that behavioural characteristics related to trophic specialization can constrain the evolution of the environmental niche and lead to conserved niches in specialist lineages. Our results show the extent of influence of several traits on the evolution of the environmental niche and shed new light on the evolution of damselfishes, which is a key lineage in current efforts to conserve biodiversity in coral reefs.     

The macroevolution of climatic niches and its role in ant diversification

1. Investigating how climatic niches change over evolutionary timescales is a necessary step to understanding the current distribution of lineages, yet few studies have addressed this issue using comprehensive datasets. In this study, the evolution of ant climatic niches is investigated at a global scale based on bioclimatic data associated with 163 481 ant occurrence records. The resulting dataset was subjected to principal component analysis, and the scores obtained were used to characterise the main axes of ant climatic niche evolution. 2. Principal component axis 1 (PC1) reflected variation in average temperature and seasonality – consistent with typical tropical/temperate gradients – whereas PC2 was associated with varying levels of aridity. Evolution along these two niche axes was markedly different: differences in the amount of explained variance between PC1 (65%) and PC2 (19%) suggest that climatic niche evolution was nearly three times more pronounced along a tropical–temperate climate axis. 3. There was statistically significant phylogenetic signal on PC1, with genera occupying more tropical conditions diversifying at a faster rate, yet neither of these results is significant on PC2. In addition, most of the ancient ant lineages are associated with conditions of low seasonality and high temperatures. 4. These results provide partial support for the tropical conservatism hypothesis as an explanation for geographical patterns of ant species richness.     

Evolution of the climatic niche in scaly tree ferns (Cyatheaceae,Polypodiopsida)

Although climatic niche conservatism has been assumed by a large number of studies focused on climatic niche evolution, there are examples of climatic niche diversification and adaptation to changing climates. In this article, we reconstruct a climatic niche of scaly tree ferns (Cyatheaceae) using a rigorous analytical procedure which combines climatic niche modelling with reconstruction of continuous characters given a phylogenetic hypothesis. To estimate the limits to climatic niches of species, we used climate envelope modelling and ordination. Ancestral climatic niches of species were reconstructed by maximum likelihood and least‐squares analyses. We observed a trend towards niche conservatism with occasional events of niche transformations in scaly tree ferns. We discuss the implications of our study with respect to the potential and limitations for applications of niche modelling to evolutionary studies. We suggest that future studies of evolution of climatic niches could be considerably improved by employing approaches enabling reconstruction of continuous response to climatic gradients. Further progress may also be achieved by exploring models of character evolution other than the Brownian motion model. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 165 , 1–19.     

Unequal evolutionary rates between annual and perennial lineages of checker mallows (Sidalcea, Malvaceae): evidence from 18S-26S rDNA internal and external transcribed spacers

Heterogeneous DNA substitution rates were found in the 18S-26S nuclear ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and external transcribed spacer (ETS) regions of Sidalcea (Malvaceae), a putatively young genus of annuals and perennials. The majority of comparisons revealed that the annual species had significantly higher molecular evolutionary rates than the perennials, whereas rates were consistently homogenous between obligate annual species. These findings led us to conclude that generation time or possibly another biological factor distinguishing annuals and perennials has influenced rates of molecular evolution in SIDALCEA: The congruence of relative-rate test results across both spacer regions reinforced the association between life history and rate of rDNA evolution across lineages of checker mallows. Evolutionary rate variation within perennials mainly involved three basally divergent lineages. The faster rate in one lineage, Sidalcea stipularis, compared with other perennials may be the result of genetic drift in the only known, small, population. The other two basally divergent lineages had slower evolutionary rates compared with the remaining perennials; possible explanations for these differences include rate-reducing effects of a suffrutescent (rather than herbaceous) habit and seed dormancy.     

Consistent variation in amino-acid substitution rate, despite uniformity of mutation rate: protein evolution in mammals is not neutral

Variation in mutation rate, attributed to differences in both generation time and in metabolic rate, has been invoked under the neutral theory of molecular evolution to account for differences in substitution rate among mammalian lineages. We show that substitution rates at fourfold-degenerate sites and at sites in noncoding regions do not vary between the primate and rodent lineages, implying mutation- rate uniformity. In contrast, the substitution rates at nondegenerate sites vary both within and between lineages. This difference in substitution-rate pattern between the two types of site is incompatible with neutral theory but may result from substitutions occurring by fixation of slightly deleterious mutations. Variation in the rate of protein evolution among mammalian lineages appears to be due more to differences in population fixation rates than to biochemical or physiological differences affecting mutation rates.      

Diversification in North American arid lands: Niche conservatism, divergence and expansion of habitat explain speciation in the genus Ephedra

A lineage of 12 arid land shrubby species in the gymnosperm genus Ephedra (Gnetales) from North America is used to evaluate the influence of climate on speciation. With a long evolutionary history, and a well documented fossil record this lineage is an ideal model for understanding the process of speciation under a niche conservatism scenario. Using seven DNA molecular markers, Bayesian inference is carried out to uncover sister species and to estimate time of divergence of the lineages. Ecological niche models are generated for four parapatric and sympatric sister species and two analyses of niche evolution are performed, one based on ecological niche models and another using raw data and multivariate analysis. As previous analyses suggest, the diversification of North America Ephedra species may be the result of a recent secondary radiation. Both parapatric and sympatric species diverged mostly in a scenario of climatic niche conservatism. However, we also found strong evidence for niche divergence for one of the sister species pairs (E. californica-E. trifurca). Moreover, the multivariate analysis found environmental differences for some variables between sister species. The estimated divergence time of three pairs of sister species distributed in southwestern North America (E. cutleri-E. aspera, E. californica-E. trifurca and E. torreyana-E. viridis) is inferred to have occurred in the Late Miocene to Pliocene and for the sister species pair E. antisyphilitica-E. coryi distributed in the southern United States and northeastern Mexico, it was inferred from the Pliocene to Pleistocene. The orogenetic and climatic changes documented for these regions related to expansion of arid lands, may have contributed to the diversification in North American Ephedra, rather than adaptations to new climatic conditions.     

Climatic niche evolution in the Andean genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Menonvillea</Emphasis> (Cremolobeae: Brassicaceae)

The study of how climatic niches change over evolutionary time has recently attracted the interest of many researchers. Different methodologies have been employed principally to analyze the temporal dynamics of the niche and specially to test for the presence of phylogenetic niche conservatism. Menonvillea, a genus of Brassicaceae including 24 species, is distributed primarily along the Andes of Argentina and Chile, with some taxa growing in southern Patagonia and others in the Atacama Desert and the Chilean Matorral. The genus is highly diversified morphologically but also presents a remarkably wide ecological range, growing from the high Andean elevations, to the dry coastal deserts in Chile, or the Patagonia Steppe in Argentina. In this study, we used molecular phylogenies together with climatic data to study climatic niche evolution in the genus. The results show that the main climatic niche shifts in Menonvillea occurred between the sections Cuneata-Scapigera and sect. Menonvillea throughout the Mid-Late Miocene, and associated with the two main geographical distribution centers of the genus: the highlands of the central-southern Andes and the Atacama Desert-Chilean Matorral, respectively. Climatic niches in these lineages were mainly differentiated by the aridity and potential evapotranspiration, the minimum temperatures of the coldest month, and the temperature annual range and seasonality. Niche evolution in Menonvillea deviated from a Brownian motion process, with most of the climatic dimension best-fitting to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of multiple adaptive peaks. Our results also indicated that higher aridity levels and lower annual temperature ranges were associated with the evolution of the annual habit, as exemplified by the distribution of sect. Menonvillea. Finally, the results suggested that climatic niche evolution in Menonvillea exhibited some degree of phylogenetic niche conservatism, fundamentally within the two main lineages (sect. Menonvillea and sects. Cuneata-Scapigera).     

Climatic niche conservatism and ecological opportunity in the explosive radiation of arvicoline rodents (Arvicolinae,Cricetidae)

Climatic niche conservatism shapes patterns of diversity in many taxonomic groups, while ecological opportunity (EO) can trigger rapid speciation that is less constrained by the amount of time a lineage has occupied a given habitat. These two processes are well studied, but limited research has considered their joint and relative roles in shaping diversity patterns. We characterized climatic and biogeographic variables for 102 species of arvicoline rodents (Arvicolinae, Cricetidae), testing the effects of climatic niche conservatism and EO on arvicoline diversification as lineages transitioned between biogeographic regions. We found that the amount of time a lineage has occupied a precipitation niche is positively correlated with diversity along a precipitation gradient, suggesting climatic niche conservatism. In contrast, shift in diversification rate explained diversity patterns along a temperature gradient. Our results suggest that an indirect relationship exists between temperature and diversification that is associated with EO as arvicoline rodents colonized warm Palearctic environments. Climatic niche conservatism alone did not fully explain diversity patterns under density‐dependence, highlighting the additional importance of EO‐related processes in promoting the explosive radiation in arvicoline rodents and shaping diversity pattern among biogeographic regions and along climatic gradients.     

Rates of nucleotide substitution in Cornaceae (Cornales)-Pattern of variation and underlying causal factors

Identifying causes of genetic divergence is a central goal in evolutionary biology. Although rates of nucleotide substitution vary among taxa and among genes, the causes of this variation tend to be poorly understood. In the present study, we examined the rate and pattern of molecular evolution for five DNA regions over a phylogeny of Cornus, the single genus of Cornaceae. To identify evolutionary mechanisms underlying the molecular variation, we employed Bayesian methods to estimate divergence times and to infer how absolute rates of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitutions and their ratios change over time. We found that the rates vary among genes, lineages, and through time, and differences in mutation rates, selection type and intensity, and possibly genetic drift all contributed to the variation of substitution rates observed among the major lineages of Cornus. We applied independent contrast analysis to explore whether speciation rates are linked to rates of molecular evolution. The results showed no relationships for individual genes, but suggested a possible localized link between species richness and rate of nonsynonymous nucleotide substitution for the combined cpDNA regions. Furthermore, we detected a positive correlation between rates of molecular evolution and morphological change in Cornus. This was particularly pronounced in the dwarf dogwood lineage, in which genome-wide acceleration in both molecular and morphological evolution has likely occurred.     

Niche conservatism and the differences in species richness at the transition of tropical and subtropical climates in South America

Although detected long ago, latitudinal disparity in species richness lacks a consensus regarding its underlying mechanisms. We evaluated whether the main predictions derived from the tropical niche conservatism hypothesis help to explain differences regarding species richness and turnover of species and lineages between forests located in tropical and subtropical climates. If tropical niches are retained, we predict that only a subset of tropical lineages disperses and establishes outside the tropics; tip‐level phylogenetic clustering increases outside the tropics; and the climatic variation drives species richness indirectly via constraints to the distribution of lineages. We compiled 58 checklists along tropical and subtropical sites of riparian forests in southeastern South America. We tested the frequency of niches shifts for species and lineages and the abundance of taxa in each climate. Next, we checked the likelihood of pathways linking climatic and spatial predictors directly with species richness and via phylogenetic clustering estimates. Several lineages only occurred in the tropics, and the number of species and lineages that occurred in both climates was lower than expected by chance. Conversely, few lineages were exclusively subtropical and diversified in the subtropics. Phylogenetic clustering increased in subtropical sites and was correlated with decreasing species richness. An interaction between mean temperature of coldest quarter and precipitation seasonality explained most variation in species richness via increases in phylogenetic clustering. These results support an important contribution of climatic niche conservatism to explain richness disparities between tropics and subtropics, mainly because of the inability of most lineages to colonize the subtropics, which is very likely related to cold intolerance. Since niche conservatism likely drives most of the variation in tree species richness in the region, it provides a mechanistic interpretation of the observed patterns, thus fostering the understanding of richness disparities between these tropical and subtropical tree communities.