应用马尔可夫链理论对褐飞虱和白背飞虱发生程度的预测

褐飞虱Nilaparvata lugens (Stál)和白背飞虱Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) 是我国稻区的主要迁飞性害虫,给水稻生产带来严重危害.以重庆市秀山县1983～2007年田间褐飞虱和白背飞虱发生程度的时间序列资料,运用基于马尔可夫链理论的转移概率预测法,构建了1～5阶转移概率矩阵,根据每一阶概率矩阵单独进行回报的历史符合率计算各阶转移概率矩阵的权重,以预报年前5a褐飞虱和白背飞虱的连续发生状态预测第6年的发生级别.回报20a的结果历史符合率均达到90%,对2008年的预测也符合当年田间实际发生情况.该方法构建的5阶转移概率矩阵及其权重对于秀山县及其邻近地区褐飞虱和白背飞虱发生程度的长期预报具有重要指导意义,为害虫的长期可预测性提供了一种快速、有效的方法.     

草地螟越冬代虫量与第一代草地螟发生关系的研究

通过对康保县植保站 1 979～ 2 0 0 2年共 2 4年草地螟系统监测资料研究分析 ,明确了草地螟越冬基数和越冬代成虫种群量与第 1代草地螟之间的发生关系。为掌握草地螟发生规律 ,开展草地螟预测预报 ,提高预报准确率提供了科学依据。     

应用马尔可夫链法预测晚稻稻飞虱发生程度

根据化州市 1 979～ 1 999年 2 1年晚稻稻飞虱主害代发生程度的时间序列资料 ,应用马尔可夫链预测法对该市 2 0 0 0年和 2 0 0 1年稻飞虱发生程度进行了预测 ,结果与大田实际发生情况完全一致。对1 985～ 1 999年的历史资料进行回检 ,符合率为 96.7%,可对晚稻稻飞虱的发生程度进行超长期预测。     

草地螟寄生蝇与寄主间的关系及控害作用

草地螟寄生蝇是草地螟Loxotego stictialisL.的重要天敌,但其发生种类、控害作用尚不明确。通过室内饲养,结合历年田间调查对康保县草地螟寄生蝇种类、田间分布、寄生率及消长规律进行研究,结果表明康保县草地螟寄生蝇发生种类有5种。田间呈聚集分布,种群数量大,寄生率高,控害作用显著。对开展草地螟预测预报,保护利用天敌资源和综合治理提供了科学依据。     

农业害虫发生动态的Fuzzy优选识别模式及其应用

本文对山东省曲阜市１９８２－１９９４年二代棉铃虫发生动态的虫情与相应年份的气象资料进行了数量分析,应用Ｆｕｚｚｙ优选识别原理,建立了二代棉铃虫发生动态的Ｆｕｚｚｙ优选识别模式·对历史资料进行回代验证,其历史拟合率为 １００％．书 １９９５,１９９６ 两年的观测数据资料作为独立样本进行试报,预测结果与实际一致．本研究为农业害虫发生动态的预测预报提供了一种新的研究方法．     

基于经验法则的小麦白粉病气候年型分析

温湿度条件是影响小麦白粉病发生流行的关键气象要素.应用河北省主麦区1987-2010年小麦白粉病资料和相应气象资料,利用合成分析和秩相关分析,筛选出影响小麦白粉病流行的关键气象因子;根据经验法则,利用小麦白粉病流行阶段的温度距平和湿度距平判别白粉病流行程度,并确定了白粉病流行的气候年型与指标.经历史回代,判别小麦白粉病流行程度准确率为84％,并进行了2011年、2012年的外延指标判别,准确率达100％,综合判断准确率在85％以上.该研究结果可为小麦白粉病影响评估与长期预报提供科学依据.     

马尾松毛虫幼虫发生高峰期的三种预测模型

【目的】为了科学确定马尾松毛虫Dendrolimus punctatus防治适期,提高防治效果。【方法】采用平稳时间序列法、马尔科夫链法和BP神经网络法研究安徽省潜山县1983-2014年马尾松毛虫幼虫发生的高峰期预测模型,并用2015年和2016年发生资料进行验证。【结果】显示:平稳时间序列法、马尔科夫链法、BP神经网络法模型预测2015年和2016年1代幼虫高峰期均为6月5日,2代高峰期均为9月6日,两年的1、2代实际发生期也是6月5日和9月6日,预测值与实际值完全一致。平稳时间序列法预测1代幼虫高峰期结果,若以大于2 d为误差标准,则1983-2014年的历史符合率为96.77%;若以小于和等于1 d为误差标准,历史符合率为74.19%,2代幼虫高峰的预测结果的历史符合率与1代相同。BP神经网络法预测结果若以1 d为误差标准,1983-2014年则1、2代预测结果的历史符合率均为100%。【结论】在3种方法中,平稳时间序列法适用于害虫发生过程符合平稳时间序列的情况;马尔科夫链法预报量的分级标准科学与否直接影响预测结果的准确性;BP神经网络法可用于自变量与预报量非线性关系的研究,是一种比较理想的预报方法。     

标记回收法确认我国北方地区草地螟的迁飞

为了证实草地螟Loxostege sticticalis L.（鳞翅目： 螟蛾科）由我国华北越冬区向东北迁飞危害的假说并提供直接的证据, 采用网捕成虫喷雾染料标记释放回收的方法,于2009年越冬代草地螟成虫盛发期间（6月1-4日）分别在内蒙古武川县（41.07°N, 111.42°E）和察右中旗（41.13°N, 112.58°E）的6个标放点共标记当地越冬代草地螟成虫约181万头并自然释放。标记释放后, 在东北、 西北和华北11个草地螟常发省（市、 区）组织各级监测预警部门利用虫情测报灯、 捕虫网和性诱剂诱捕器等多种器械进行回收, 先后于2009年6月7-29日在内蒙古科右中旗、 乌兰浩特、 扎兰屯分别回收到由察右中旗标记释放的成虫9头, 在辽宁省北票市回收到由武川县标记释放的成虫1头。标记释放点至回收点直线距离为725~1 117 km。这是迄今为止世界上确认的草地螟最远迁飞距离。这些证据不仅证实了我国越冬代草地螟成虫能从华北迁往东北危害, 而且为进一步了解草地螟的种群动态规律, 改善草地螟的预测预报技术提供了重要的科学依据。     

冀西北农牧交错区草地螟寄生蜂及其控害作用

【目的】寄生蜂是草地螟Loxostege sticticalis L.卵期和幼虫期的重要天敌,但冀西北地区的发生种类、控害作用尚不明确。【方法】通过1997年以来历年田间调查,结合多年室内饲养。【结果】明确了当地草地螟寄生蜂共14种,其中卵期1种,幼虫期13种,1~5龄幼虫各龄期均有不同种寄生蜂寄生,寄生蜂种类多,种群数量大,寄生率高,控害和压低草地螟种群作用显著。【结论】该调查研究为开展草地螟预测预报,保护利用天敌资源和综合治理提供了科学依据。     

小麦穗期麦长管蚜发生程度的预测模型研究

应用逐步判别分析方法,对山东省金乡县1982—1989年共8年小麦穗期麦长管蚜发生程度的历史观测资料进行了数量分析,建立了判别方程（预测模型）。将历史资料进行回检,符合率为100％,把1990年的观察资料作为独立样本进行试报,结果与实际相吻合。为害虫种群动态的预测预报提供了一种新的研究方法。     

Population forecasting model of Nilaparvata lugens and Sogatella furcifera (Homoptera: Delphacidae) based on Markov chain theory

Nilaparvata lugens (St?l) and Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) are the two most important long-distance migratory insect pests that cause great yield losses to rice in China. Accurate long-term population forecast is needed to implement effective management strategies for these two rice pests. In this paper, a transition probability matrix of 5-yr steps of Markov chain theory was constructed based on 31-yr light-trapping data of the two pests from 1977 to 2007 in Jiangkou County, Guizhou, China. The weight of each step for the transition probability matrix was calculated according to its prediction accuracy. Insect occurrence levels in the sixth year were predicted based on the occurrences of the previous 5 yr. Nonparametric Wilcoxon paired sample tests showed that there were no significant differences between the actual and predicted occurrences for both N. lugens and S. furcifera. In addition, the models accurately forecasted field occurrence in 2008 in Jinangkou County for both species. The results showed that the Markov models developed in this study offer an effective method for long-term population forecasting of N. lugens and S. furcifera and thus provide plant protection agencies and organizations with valuable information in implementing appropriate management strategies for these two devastating rice pests in Jiangkou and neighboring areas.     

Synchronized oviposition triggered by migratory flight intensifies larval outbreaks of beet webworm

Identifying the reproductive consequences of insect migration is critical to understanding its ecological and evolutionary significance. However, many empirical studies are seemingly contradictory, making recognition of unifying themes elusive and controversial. The beet webworm, Loxostege sticticalis L. is a long-range migratory pest of many crops in the northern temperate zone from 36 °N to 55 °N, with larval populations often exploding in regions receiving immigrants. In laboratory experiments, we examined (i) the reproductive costs of migratory flight by tethered flight, and (ii) the reproductive traits contributing to larval outbreaks of immigrant populations. Our results suggest that the beet webworm does not initiate migratory flight until the 2nd or 3rd night after emergence. Preoviposition period, lifetime fecundity, mating capacity, and egg hatch rate for adults that experienced prolonged flight after the 2nd night did not differ significantly from unflown moths, suggesting these traits are irrelevant to the severity of beet webworm outbreaks after migration. However, the period of first oviposition, a novel parameter developed in this paper measuring synchrony of first egg-laying by cohorts of post-migratory females, for moths flown on d 3 and 5 of adulthood was shorter than that of unflown moths, indicating a tightened time-window for onset of oviposition after migration. The resulting synchrony of egg-laying will serve to increase egg and subsequent larval densities. A dense population offers potential selective advantages to the individual larvae comprising it, whereas the effect from the human standpoint is intensification of damage by an outbreak population. The strategy of synchronized oviposition may be common in other migratory insect pests, such as locust and armyworm species, and warrants further study.     

On the temperature tolerance of diapausing prepupae of the beet webworm Loxostege sticticalis L. (Lepidoptera,Pyraloidea: Crambidae)

The beet webworm, Loxostege sticticalis L. is a very dangerous polyphagous insect pest. The beet webworm overwinters at the pronymphal stage. In some individuals, the diapause can last from the first generation to the next spring. The influence of 30-days-long exposure at temperatures of +5, +10, +15, +20, and +25°C on survival and subsequent reactivation of diapausing pronymphs of L. sticticalis has been investigated in laboratory conditions. The beet webworm was shown to be very thermotolerant: although the temperature of +5°C, as expected, was optimal for reactivation, the other thermal regimes did not cause a significant decrease in survival and in the proportion of individuals reactivated before the end of the experiment (in 120 days). These data suggest that the southern boundary of the geographical range of L. sticticalis is determined not by high winter temperatures, but rather by some other factors (possibly, by high summer temperatures).     

Overdominant alleles in a population of variable size.

An approximate method is developed to predict the number of strongly overdominant alleles in a population of which the size varies with time. The approximation relies on the strong-selection weak-mutation (SSWM) method introduced by J. H. Gillespie and leads to a Markov chain model that describes the number of common alleles in the population. The parameters of the transition matrix of the Markov chain depend in a simple way on the population size. For a population of constant size, the Markov chain leads to results that are nearly the same as those of N. Takahata. The Markov chain allows the prediction of the numbers of common alleles during and after a population bottleneck and the numbers of alleles surviving from before a bottleneck. This method is also adapted to modeling the case in which there are two classes of alleles, with one class causing a reduction in fitness relative to the other class. Very slight selection against one class can strongly affect the relative frequencies of the two classes and the relative ages of alleles in each class.     

Markov chains with infinite transition rates

We investigate finite state, continuous time Markov chains, whose transition rates have different orders of magnitude. Such a chain may be approximated by a simple one, which is obtained by grouping together states whose mutual communication is of the highest order. Using this reduced chain, the computation of both transition probability matrix and stationary distribution of the original chain is simplified significantly. The method is applicable in enzyme kenetics, and presumably in mathematical ecology or population genetics.     

Biological features and population density forecasts of the beet webworm Pyrausta sticticalis L. (Lepidoptera, Pyraustidae) in the period of low population density of the pest in Krasnodar Territory

Population dynamics of the beet webworm Pyrausta sticticalis L. was studied in 2003–2005 in Krasnodar Territory (Slavyansk-on-Kuban District) during the period of low population density of the pest. In the period examined, the adult death rate was high, fecundity was low; the low rate of hatchability and high rate of mortality was typical of larvae reared in the laboratory. Analysis of life tables has demonstrated that the observed population density of adults could be explained only by a constant flow of migrants. Low viability of insects from the local population could be explained by the infection with pathogenic microorganisms, including viruses of the Polyhedrosis and Granulosi groups of Baculovirus, and microsporidia, including Nosema sticticalis and Microsporidium sp. Reproduction of the pest can also be influenced by unfavorable weather conditions reducing population density in the subsequent generation. It is demonstrated that the model of the beet webworm population density dynamics based on indices of female fertility, changes in the offspring viability, and the rate of infection with microsporidia is more reliable than models based only on meteorological factors.