Mixed-conifer understory response to climate change, nitrogen, and fire

California's Sierra Nevada mountains are predicted to experience greater variation in annual precipitation according to climate change models, while nitrogen deposition from pollution continues to increase. These changes may significantly affect understory communities and fuels in forests where managers are attempting to restore historic conditions after a century of altered fire regimes. The objective of this research was to experimentally test the effects of increasing and decreasing snowpack depth, increasing nitrogen, and applying prescribed fire to mixed-conifer forest understories at two sites in the central and southern Sierra Nevada. Understory response to treatments significantly differed between sites with herb biomass increasing in shrub-dominated communities when snowpack was reduced. Fire was a more important factor in post-treatment species richness and cover than either snowpack addition or reduction. Nitrogen additions unexpectedly increased herbaceous species richness. These varied findings indicate that modeling future climatic influences on biodiversity may be more difficult than additive prediction based on increasing the ecosystem's two limiting growth resources. Increasing snowpack and nitrogen resulted in increased shrub biomass production at both sites and increased herb production at the southern site. This additional understory biomass has the potential to increase fuel connectivity in patchy Sierran mixed-conifer forests, increasing fire severity and size.     

Forest Pattern, Fire, and Climatic Change in the Sierra Nevada

In the Sierra Nevada, distributions of forest tree species are largely controlled by the soil-moisture balance. Changes in temperature or precipitation as a result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations could lead to changes in species distributions. In addition, climatic change could increase the frequency and severity of wildfires. We used a forest gap model developed for Sierra Nevada forests to investigate the potential sensitivity of these forests to climatic change, including a changing fire regime. Fuel moisture influences the fire regime and couples fire to climate. Fires are also affected by fuel loads, which accumulate according to forest structure and composition. These model features were used to investigate the complex interactions between climate, fire, and forest dynamics. Eight hypothetical climate-change scenarios were simulated, including two general circulation model (GCM) predictions of a 2 × CO₂ world. The response of forest structure,species composition, and the fire regime to these changes in the climate were examined at four sites across an elevation gradient. Impacts on woody biomass and species composition as a result of climatic change were site specific and depended on the environmental constraints of a site and the environmental tolerances of the tree species simulated. Climatic change altered the fire regime both directly and indirectly. Fire frequency responded directly to climate's influence on fuel moisture, whereas fire extent was affected by changes that occurred in either woody biomass or species composition. The influence of species composition on fuel-bed bulk density was particularly important. Future fires in the Sierra Nevada could be both more frequent and of greater spatial extent if GCM predictions prove true. Received 5 May 1998; accepted 4 November 1998.     

Near‐future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States

Recent prolonged droughts and catastrophic wildfires in the western United States have raised concerns about the potential for forest mortality to impact forest structure, forest ecosystem services, and the economic vitality of communities in the coming decades. We used the Community Land Model (CLM) to determine forest vulnerability to mortality from drought and fire by the year 2049. We modified CLM to represent 13 major forest types in the western United States and ran simulations at a 4‐km grid resolution, driven with climate projections from two general circulation models under one emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). We developed metrics of vulnerability to short‐term extreme and prolonged drought based on annual allocation to stem growth and net primary productivity. We calculated fire vulnerability based on changes in simulated future area burned relative to historical area burned. Simulated historical drought vulnerability was medium to high in areas with observations of recent drought‐related mortality. Comparisons of observed and simulated historical area burned indicate simulated future fire vulnerability could be underestimated by 3% in the Sierra Nevada and overestimated by 3% in the Rocky Mountains. Projections show that water‐limited forests in the Rocky Mountains, Southwest, and Great Basin regions will be the most vulnerable to future drought‐related mortality, and vulnerability to future fire will be highest in the Sierra Nevada and portions of the Rocky Mountains. High carbon‐density forests in the Pacific coast and western Cascades regions are projected to be the least vulnerable to either drought or fire. Importantly, differences in climate projections lead to only 1% of the domain with conflicting low and high vulnerability to fire and no area with conflicting drought vulnerability. Our drought vulnerability metrics could be incorporated as probabilistic mortality rates in earth system models, enabling more robust estimates of the feedbacks between the land and atmosphere over the 21st century.     

Local forest structure variability increases resilience to wildfire in dry western U.S. coniferous forests

A ‘resilient’ forest endures disturbance and is likely to persist. Resilience to wildfire may arise from feedback between fire behaviour and forest structure in dry forest systems. Frequent fire creates fine‐scale variability in forest structure, which may then interrupt fuel continuity and prevent future fires from killing overstorey trees. Testing the generality and scale of this phenomenon is challenging for vast, long‐lived forest ecosystems. We quantify forest structural variability and fire severity across >30 years and >1000 wildfires in California's Sierra Nevada. We find that greater variability in forest structure increases resilience by reducing rates of fire‐induced tree mortality and that the scale of this effect is local, manifesting at the smallest spatial extent of forest structure tested (90 × 90 m). Resilience of these forests is likely compromised by structural homogenisation from a century of fire suppression, but could be restored with management that increases forest structural variability.     

Interactions Among Wildland Fires in a Long-Established Sierra Nevada Natural Fire Area

We investigate interactions between successive naturally occurring fires, and assess to what extent the environments in which fires burn influence these interactions. Using mapped fire perimeters and satellite-based estimates of post-fire effects (referred to hereafter as fire severity) for 19 fires burning relatively freely over a 31-year period, we demonstrate that fire as a landscape process can exhibit self-limiting characteristics in an upper elevation Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forest. We use the term ‘self-limiting’ to refer to recurring fire as a process over time (that is, fire regime) consuming fuel and ultimately constraining the spatial extent and lessening fire-induced effects of subsequent fires. When the amount of time between successive adjacent fires is under 9 years, and when fire weather is not extreme (burning index <34.9), the probability of the latter fire burning into the previous fire area is extremely low. Analysis of fire severity data by 10-year periods revealed a fair degree of stability in the proportion of area burned among fire severity classes (unchanged, low, moderate, high). This is in contrast to a recent study demonstrating increasing high-severity burning throughout the Sierra Nevada from 1984 to 2006, which suggests freely burning fires over time in upper elevation Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forests can regulate fire-induced effects across the landscape. This information can help managers better anticipate short- and long-term effects of allowing naturally ignited fires to burn, and ultimately, improve their ability to implement Wildland Fire Use programs in similar forest types. BC wrote paper, performed analysis; JM gathered/processed data, performed analysis, contributed to writing; AT gathered/processed data, conducted field research; MK contributed new methods for analysis; JvW performed analysis, conceived the study; SS designed study, contributed to writing.     

The carbon costs of mitigating high‐severity wildfire in southwestern ponderosa pine

Forests provide climate change mitigation benefit by sequestering carbon during growth. This benefit can be reversed by both human and natural disturbances. While some disturbances such as hurricanes are beyond the control of humans, extensive research in dry, temperate forests indicates that wildfire severity can be altered as a function of forest fuels and stand structural manipulations. The purpose of this study was to determine if current aboveground forest carbon stocks in fire‐excluded southwestern ponderosa pine forest are higher than prefire exclusion carbon stocks reconstructed from 1876, quantify the carbon costs of thinning treatments to reduce high‐severity wildfire risk, and compare posttreatment (thinning and burning) carbon stocks with reconstructed 1876 carbon stocks. Our findings indicate that prefire exclusion forest carbon stocks ranged from 27.9 to 36.6 Mg C ha^?1 and that the current fire‐excluded forest structure contained on average 2.3 times as much live tree carbon. Posttreatment carbon stocks ranged from 37.9 to 50.6 Mg C ha^?1 as a function of thinning intensity. Previous work found that these thinning and burning treatments substantially increased the 6.1 m wind speed necessary for fire to move from the forest floor to the canopy (torching index) and the wind speed necessary for sustained crown fire (crowning index), thereby reducing potential fire severity. Given the projected drying and increase in fire prevalence in this region as a function of changing climatic conditions, the higher carbon stock in the fire‐excluded forest is unlikely to be sustainable. Treatments to reduce high‐severity wildfire risk require trade‐offs between carbon stock size and carbon stock stability.     

Fire, fuels and restoration of ponderosa pine–Douglas fir forests in the Rocky Mountains, USA

Aim Forest restoration in ponderosa pine and mixed ponderosa pine–Douglas fir forests in the US Rocky Mountains has been highly influenced by a historical model of frequent, low‐severity surface fires developed for the ponderosa pine forests of the Southwestern USA. A restoration model, based on this low‐severity fire model, focuses on thinning and prescribed burning to restore historical forest structure. However, in the US Rocky Mountains, research on fire history and forest structure, and early historical reports, suggest the low‐severity model may only apply in limited geographical areas. The aim of this article is to elaborate a new variable‐severity fire model and evaluate the applicability of this model, along with the low‐severity model, for the ponderosa pine–Douglas fir forests of the Rocky Mountains. Location Rocky Mountains, USA. Methods The geographical applicability of the two fire models is evaluated using historical records, fire histories and forest age‐structure analyses. Results Historical sources and tree‐ring reconstructions document that, near or before ad 1900, the low‐severity model may apply in dry, low‐elevation settings, but that fires naturally varied in severity in most of these forests. Low‐severity fires were common, but high‐severity fires also burned thousands of hectares. Tree regeneration increased after these high‐severity fires, and often attained densities much greater than those reconstructed for Southwestern ponderosa pine forests. Main conclusions Exclusion of fire has not clearly and uniformly increased fuels or shifted the fire type from low‐ to high‐severity fires. However, logging and livestock grazing have increased tree densities and risk of high‐severity fires in some areas. Restoration is likely to be most effective which seeks to (1) restore variability of fire, (2) reverse changes brought about by livestock grazing and logging, and (3) modify these land uses so that degradation is not repeated.     

Topographic Variation in Structure of Mixed-Conifer Forests Under an Active-Fire Regime

Management efforts to promote forest resiliency as climate changes have often used historical forest structure and composition to provide general guidance for fuels reduction and forest restoration treatments. However, it has been difficult to identify what stand conditions might be fire and drought resilient because historical data and reconstruction studies are generally limited to accurate estimates only of large, live tree density and composition. Other stand features such as smaller tree densities, dead wood, understory structure, regeneration, and fuel loads have been difficult to quantify, estimate how they may vary across a landscape, or assess how they would be affected by fire under current climate conditions. We sampled old-growth, mixed-conifer forests with at least two low-intensity fires within the last 65?years in 150 plots at 48 sample sites ranging over 400?km of the Sierra Nevada. Recent fire history had the strongest influence on understory conditions with small tree density decreasing and shrub cover increasing with the increased intensity and frequency of fire associated with upper-slope and ridge-top locations. In contrast, stand structures associated with large, overstory trees such as total basal area, canopy cover, and the abundance of large snags and logs increased in topographic locations associated with more mesic, productive sites regardless of fire history. In forests with restored fire regimes, topography, fire and their interaction influence productivity and burn intensity, creating the structural heterogeneity characteristic of frequent-fire forests.     

Fire Severity in Conifer Forests of the Sierra Nevada, California

Natural disturbances are an important source of environmental heterogeneity that have been linked to species diversity in ecosystems. However, spatial and temporal patterns of disturbances are often evaluated separately. Consequently, rates and scales of existing disturbance processes and their effects on biodiversity are often uncertain. We have studied both spatial and temporal patterns of contemporary fires in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California, USA. Patterns of fire severity were analyzed for conifer forests in the three largest fires since 1999. These fires account for most cumulative area that has burned in recent years. They burned relatively remote areas where there was little timber management. To better characterize high-severity fire, we analyzed its effect on the survival of pines. We evaluated temporal patterns of fire since 1950 in the larger landscapes in which the three fires occurred. Finally, we evaluated the utility of a metric for the effects of fire suppression. Known as Condition Class it is now being used throughout the United States to predict where fire will be uncharacteristically severe. Contrary to the assumptions of fire management, we found that high-severity fire was uncommon. Moreover, pines were remarkably tolerant of it. The wildfires helped to restore landscape structure and heterogeneity, as well as producing fire effects associated with natural diversity. However, even with large recent fires, rates of burning are relatively low due to modern fire management. Condition Class was not able to predict patterns of high-severity fire. Our findings underscore the need to conduct more comprehensive assessments of existing disturbance regimes and to determine whether natural disturbances are occurring at rates and scales compatible with the maintenance of biodiversity.     

Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate–wildfire interactions

Climate influences forests directly and indirectly through disturbance. The interaction of climate change and increasing area burned has the potential to alter forest composition and community assembly. However, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species‐specific responses to environmental change and the scale of change in overstory species cover. In this study, we sought to quantify how projected changes in climate and large wildfire size would alter forest communities and carbon (C) dynamics, irrespective of competition from nontree species and potential changes in other fire regimes, across the Sierra Nevada, USA. We used a species‐specific, spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS‐II) to evaluate forest response to climate–wildfire interactions under historical (baseline) climate and climate projections from three climate models (GFDL, CCSM3, and CNRM) forced by a medium–high emission scenario (A2) in combination with corresponding climate‐specific large wildfire projections. By late century, we found modest changes in the spatial distribution of dominant species by biomass relative to baseline, but extensive changes in recruitment distribution. Although forest recruitment declined across much of the Sierra, we found that projected climate and wildfire favored the recruitment of more drought‐tolerant species over less drought‐tolerant species relative to baseline, and this change was greatest at mid‐elevations. We also found that projected climate and wildfire decreased tree species richness across a large proportion of the study area and transitioned more area to a C source, which reduced landscape‐level C sequestration potential. Our study, although a conservative estimate, suggests that by late century, forest community distributions may not change as intact units as predicted by biome‐based modeling, but are likely to trend toward simplified community composition as communities gradually disaggregate and the least tolerant species are no longer able to establish. The potential exists for substantial community composition change and forest simplification beyond this century.     

Snowpack,fire, and forest disturbance: interactions affect montane invasions by non‐native shrubs

Montane regions worldwide have experienced relatively low plant invasion rates, a trend attributed to increased climatic severity, low rates of disturbance, and reduced propagule pressure relative to lowlands. Manipulative experiments at elevations above the invasive range of non‐native species can clarify the relative contributions of these mechanisms to montane invasion resistance, yet such experiments are rare. Furthermore, global climate change and land use changes are expected to cause decreases in snowpack and increases in disturbance by fire and forest thinning in montane forests. We examined the importance of these factors in limiting montane invasions using a field transplant experiment above the invasive range of two non‐native lowland shrubs, Scotch broom (Cytisus scoparius) and Spanish broom (Spartium junceum), in the rain–snow transition zone of the Sierra Nevada of California. We tested the effects of canopy closure, prescribed fire, and winter snow depth on demographic transitions of each species. Establishment of both species was most likely at intermediate levels of canopy disturbance, but at this intermediate canopy level, snow depth had negative effects on winter survival of seedlings. We used matrix population models to show that an 86% reduction in winter snowfall would cause a 2.8‐fold increase in population growth rates in Scotch broom and a 3.5‐fold increase in Spanish broom. Fall prescribed fire increased germination rates, but decreased overall population growth rates by reducing plant survival. However, at longer fire return intervals, population recovery between fires is likely to keep growth rates high, especially under low snowpack conditions. Many treatment combinations had positive growth rates despite being above the current invasive range, indicating that propagule pressure, disturbance, and climate can all strongly affect plant invasions in montane regions. We conclude that projected reductions in winter snowpack and increases in forest disturbance are likely to increase the risk of invasion from lower elevations.     

Management Impacts on Carbon Dynamics in a Sierra Nevada Mixed Conifer Forest

Forest ecosystems can act as sinks of carbon and thus mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions. When forests are actively managed, treatments can alter forests carbon dynamics, reducing their sink strength and switching them from sinks to sources of carbon. These effects are generally characterized by fast temporal dynamics. Hence this study monitored for over a decade the impacts of management practices commonly used to reduce fire hazards on the carbon dynamics of mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Soil CO₂ efflux, carbon pools (i.e. soil carbon, litter, fine roots, tree biomass), and radial tree growth were compared among un-manipulated controls, prescribed fire, thinning, thinning followed by fire, and two clear-cut harvested sites. Soil CO₂ efflux was reduced by both fire and harvesting (ca. 15%). Soil carbon content (upper 15 cm) was not significantly changed by harvest or fire treatments. Fine root biomass was reduced by clear-cut harvest (60–70%) but not by fire, and the litter layer was reduced 80% by clear-cut harvest and 40% by fire. Thinning effects on tree growth and biomass were concentrated in the first year after treatments, whereas fire effects persisted over the seven-year post-treatment period. Over this period, tree radial growth was increased (25%) by thinning and reduced (12%) by fire. After seven years, tree biomass returned to pre-treatment levels in both fire and thinning treatments; however, biomass and productivity decreased 30%-40% compared to controls when thinning was combined with fire. The clear-cut treatment had the strongest impact, reducing ecosystem carbon stocks and delaying the capacity for carbon uptake. We conclude that post-treatment carbon dynamics and ecosystem recovery time varied with intensity and type of treatments. Consequently, management practices can be selected to minimize ecosystem carbon losses while increasing future carbon uptake, resilience to high severity fire, and climate related stresses.     

Understory vegetation response to mechanical mastication and other fuels treatments in a ponderosa pine forest

Questions: What influence does mechanical mastication and other fuel treatments have on: (1) canopy and forest floor response variables that influence understory plant development; (2) initial understory vegetation cover, diversity, and composition; and (3) shrub and non‐native species density in a second‐growth ponderosa pine forest. Location: Challenge Experimental Forest, northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Methods: We compared the effects of mastication only, mastication with supplemental treatments (tilling and prescribed fire), hand removal, and a control on initial understory vegetation response using a randomized complete block experimental design. Each block (n=4) contained all five treatments and understory vegetation was surveyed within 0.04‐ha plots for each treatment. Results: While mastication alone and hand removal dramatically reduced the midstory vegetation, these treatments had little effect on understory richness compared with control. Prescribed fire after mastication increased native species richness by 150% (+6.0 species m²) compared with control. However, this also increased non‐native species richness (+0.8 species m²) and shrub seedling density (+24.7 stems m²). Mastication followed by tilling resulted in increased non‐native forb density (+0.7 stems m²). Conclusions: Mechanical mastication and hand removal treatments aided in reducing midstory fuels but did not increase understory plant diversity. The subsequent treatment of prescribed burning not only further reduced fire hazard, but also exposed mineral soil, which likely promoted native plant diversity. Some potential drawbacks to this treatment include an increase of non‐native species and stimulation of shrub seed germination, which could alter ecosystem functions and compromise fire hazard reduction in the long‐term.     

Fire Severity in the Sierra Nevada Revisited: Conclusions Robust to Further Analysis

In our previous article (Odion and Hanson, Ecosystems 9:1177–89, 2006), we reported that fire severity in the conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, contrary to prevailing assumptions, did not burn with predominately stand-replacing, high severity fire. The reply by Safford and others (Ecosystems, this issue) using a new mapping approach also found this pattern. Their methods identify more high severity fire; however, as we illustrate here, this may be attributed to the different mapping approaches used. We previously also found that condition class based upon fire return interval departure (FRID) was not an effective predictor of fire severity. Safford and others (this issue) concluded that there was a strong correlation between FRID-based condition class and fire severity based upon data from the McNally fire of 2002. The difference between these findings about McNally fire reflects the fact that they combined FRID categories whereas we kept the categories separate. Here, using their fire severity data to evaluate all three fires, we found that severity was not predicted by FRID. Developing a consensus definition of fire severity within the scientific community might help alleviate future contradictions regarding fire effects.     

Does It Make Sense to Restore Wildland Fire in Changing Climate?

Forest restoration guided by historical reference conditions of fire regime, forest structure, and composition has been increasingly and successfully applied in fire‐adapted forests of western North America. But because climate change is expected to alter vegetation distributions and foster severe disturbances, does it make sense to restore the ecological role of wildland fire through management burning and related activities such as tree thinning? I suggest that some site‐ and date‐specific historical conditions may be less relevant, but reference conditions in the broad sense are still useful. Reference conditions encompass not only the recent past but also evolutionary history, reflecting the role of fire as a selective force over millennia. Taking a long‐term functional view of historical reference conditions as the result of evolutionary processes can provide insights into past forest adaptations and migrations under various climates. As future climates change, historical reference data from lower, southerly, and drier sites may be useful in places that are higher, northerly, and currently wetter. Almost all models suggest that the future will have substantial increases in wildfire occurrence, but prior to recent human‐caused fire exclusion, fire‐adapted pine forests of western North America were among the most frequently burned in the world. Restoration of patterns of burning and fuels/forest structure that reasonably emulate historical conditions prior to fire exclusion is consistent with reducing the susceptibility of these ecosystems to catastrophic loss. Priorities may include fire and thinning treatments of upper elevation ecotones to facilitate forest migration, whereas vulnerable low‐elevation forests may merit less management investment.     

Fire disturbance and forest structure in old‐growth mixed conifer forests in the northern Sierra Nevada,California

Question: This study evaluates how fire regimes influence stand structure and dynamics in old‐growth mixed conifer forests across a range of environmental settings. Location: A 2000‐ha area of mixed conifer forest on the west shore of Lake Tahoe in the northern Sierra Nevada, California. Methods: We quantified the age, size, and spatial structure of trees in 12 mixed conifer stands distributed across major topographic gradients. Fire history was reconstructed in each stand using fire scar dendrochronology. The influence of fire on stand structure was assessed by comparing the fire history with the age, size, and spatial structure of trees in a stand. Results: There was significant variation in species composition among stands, but not in the size, age and spatial patterning of trees. Stands had multiple size and age classes with clusters of similar aged trees occurring at scales of 113 ‐ 254 m². The frequency and severity of fires was also similar, and stands burned with low to moderate severity in the dormant season on average every 9–17 years. Most fires were not synchronized among stands except in very dry years. No fires have burned since ca. 1880. Conclusions: Fire and forest structure interact to perpetuate similar stand characteristics across a range of environmental settings. Fire occurrence is controlled primarily by spatial variation in fuel mosaics (e.g. patterns of abundance, fuel moisture, forest structure), but regional drought synchronizes fire in some years. Fire exclusion over the last 120 years has caused compositional and structural shifts in these mixed conifer forests.     

Avian Response to Mechanical Aspen Restoration in Sierra Nevada Coniferous Forest

Using mechanical treatments to mimic natural disturbances is becoming a standard management and restoration approach. In the Sierra Nevada, as throughout much of western North America, much of aspen habitat is in poor health. Because of the high ecological value of healthy aspen, and its limited extent on the landscape, restoration to reverse the decline and improve stand health has become a management priority in the region. To evaluate the ecological effects of mechanically removing competing conifers to restore aspen in the Sierra Nevada, we compared vegetation characteristics and bird abundance in treated and untreated aspen stands on the Lassen National Forest before and up to 13 years after mechanical conifer removal. Treatments reduced total canopy cover and increased herbaceous cover and the number of aspen stems, while shrub and overstory aspen covers were unchanged. Of 10 aspen focal bird species, 7 increased in abundance following treatment relative to controls, including all species associated with early seral aspen habitat and cavity nesting species; none declined. In contrast, of the six conifer focal species, the four associated with denser conifer habitat declined as a result of the treatments. The two species associated with conifer edges and understory cover increased. Our results demonstrate mechanical conifer removal treatments can provide ecologically meaningful changes in habitat for the avian community and are an effective tool for restoring ecological values of degraded aspen habitat for birds in the Sierra Nevada.     

Bats in a changing landscape: Linking occupancy and traits of a diverse montane bat community to fire regime

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Evaluating management risks using landscape trajectory analysis: A case study of California fisher

Ecosystem management requires an understanding of how landscapes vary in space and time, how this variation can be affected by management decisions or stochastic events, and the potential consequences for species. Landscape trajectory analysis, coupled with a basic knowledge of species habitat selection, offers a straightforward approach to ecological risk analysis and can be used to project the effects of management decisions on species of concern. The fisher (Martes pennanti) occurs primarily in late-successional forests which, in the Sierra Nevada mountains, are susceptible to high-intensity wildfire. Understanding the effects of fuels treatments and fire on the distribution of fisher habitat is a critical conservation concern. We assumed that the more a treated landscape resembled occupied female fisher home ranges, the more likely it was to be occupied by a female and therefore the lower the risk to the population. Thus, we characterized important vegetation attributes within the home ranges of 16 female fishers and used the distribution of these attributes as a baseline against which the effects of forest management options could be compared. We used principal components analysis to identify the major axes defining occupied female fisher home ranges and these, in addition to select univariate metrics, became our reference for evaluating the effects of landscape change. We demonstrated the approach at two management units on the Sierra National Forest by simulating the effects of both no action and forest thinning, with and without an unplanned fire, on vegetation characteristics over a 45-yr period. Under the no action scenario, landscapes remained similar to reference conditions for approximately 30-yr until forest succession resulted in a loss of landscape heterogeneity. Comparatively, fuel treatment resulted in the reduction of certain forest elements below those found in female fisher home ranges yet little overall change in habitat suitability. Adding a wildfire to both scenarios resulted in divergence from reference conditions, though in the no action scenario the divergence was 4× greater and the landscape did not recover within the 45-yr timeframe. These examples demonstrate that combining the results of forest growth and disturbance modeling with habitat selection data may be used to quantify the potential effects of vegetation management activities on wildlife habitat. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Wildfire refugia in forests: Severe fire weather and drought mute the influence of topography and fuel age

Wildfire refugia (unburnt patches within large wildfires) are important for the persistence of fire‐sensitive species across forested landscapes globally. A key challenge is to identify the factors that determine the distribution of fire refugia across space and time. In particular, determining the relative influence of climatic and landscape factors is important in order to understand likely changes in the distribution of wildfire refugia under future climates. Here, we examine the relative effect of weather (i.e. fire weather, drought severity) and landscape features (i.e. topography, fuel age, vegetation type) on the occurrence of fire refugia across 26 large wildfires in south‐eastern Australia. Fire weather and drought severity were the primary drivers of the occurrence of fire refugia, moderating the effect of landscape attributes. Unburnt patches rarely occurred under ‘severe’ fire weather, irrespective of drought severity, topography, fuels or vegetation community. The influence of drought severity and landscape factors played out most strongly under ‘moderate’ fire weather. In mesic forests, fire refugia were linked to variables that affect fuel moisture, whereby the occurrence of unburnt patches decreased with increasing drought conditions and were associated with more mesic topographic locations (i.e. gullies, pole‐facing aspects) and vegetation communities (i.e. closed‐forest). In dry forest, the occurrence of refugia was responsive to fuel age, being associated with recently burnt areas (<5 years since fire). Overall, these results show that increased severity of fire weather and increased drought conditions, both predicted under future climate scenarios, are likely to lead to a reduction of wildfire refugia across forests of southern Australia. Protection of topographic areas able to provide long‐term fire refugia will be an important step towards maintaining the ecological integrity of forests under future climate change.