Mapping fire severity and fire extent in forest in Victoria for ecological and fuel outcomes

This study shows how high‐resolution (~15 cm) simultaneous colour and infra‐red digital aerial photography can be used to map both fire severity and, particularly, fire extent, in forest in south‐eastern Australia. The results show that this methodology is capable of detecting and mapping burnt and unburnt edges under unaffected forest canopy (i.e. still green) – that is, revealing the mosaic of burnt and unburnt areas that often result from planned landscape burning under mild weather conditions (i.e. with little of the brownish canopy scorch that results from more intense bushfires). This has important implications for both fuel management and ecology. It can answer the basic questions of fire and biodiversity managers following planned burning –’how much of the planned area burnt, and, within the burnt area, what aspects were burnt, and how hot did they burn?’ The analysis of fire extent by aspect showed that about 80% of southern and eastern aspects remained unburnt during broadscale autumn prescribed burning, with many of these moister aspects potentially providing longer unburnt refuges over multiple burn rotations. The fire severity and extent mapping products, produced using the methodology outlined in this study, have the potential to substantially increase the understanding of the ecological and fuel outcomes of landscape‐scale autumn prescribed burning.     

High and dry: post‐fire tree seedling establishment in subalpine forests decreases with post‐fire drought and large stand‐replacing burn patches

Aim Climate warming and increased wildfire activity are hypothesized to catalyse biogeographical shifts, reducing the resilience of fire‐prone forests world‐wide. Two key mechanisms underpinning hypotheses are: (1) reduced seed availability in large stand‐replacing burn patches, and (2) reduced seedling establishment/survival after post‐fire drought. We tested for regional evidence consistent with these mechanisms in an extensive fire‐prone forest biome by assessing post‐fire tree seedling establishment, a key indicator of forest resilience. Location Subalpine forests, US Rocky Mountains. Methods We analysed post‐fire tree seedling establishment from 184 field plots where stand‐replacing forest fires were followed by varying post‐fire climate conditions. Generalized linear mixed models tested how establishment rates varied with post‐fire drought severity and distance to seed source (among other relevant factors) for tree species with contrasting post‐fire regeneration adaptations. Results Total post‐fire tree seedling establishment (all species combined) declined sharply with greater post‐fire drought severity and with greater distance to seed sources (i.e. the interior of burn patches). Effects varied among key species groups. For conifers that dominate present‐day subalpine forests (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa), post‐fire seedling establishment declined sharply with both factors. One exception was serotinous Pinus contorta, which did not vary with either factor. For montane species expected to move upslope under future climate change (Larix occidentalis, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Populus tremuloides) and upper treeline species (Pinus albicaulis), establishment was unrelated to either factor. Greater post‐fire tree seedling establishment on cooler/wetter aspects suggested local topographic refugia during post‐fire droughts. Main conclusions If future drought and wildfire patterns manifest as expected, post‐fire tree seedling establishment of species that currently characterize subalpine forests could be substantially reduced. Compensatory increases from lower montane and upper treeline species may partially offset these reductions, but our data suggest important near‐ to mid‐term shifts in the composition and structure of high‐elevation forests under continued climate warming and increased wildfire activity.     

Are long‐unburnt eucalypt forest patches important for the conservation of plant species diversity?

Question: Are long‐unburnt patches of eucalypt forest important for maintaining floristic diversity? Location: Eucalyptus forests of southeastern New South Wales, Australia. Methods: Data from 976 sites representing a range of fire history from three major vegetation formations – shrubby dry sclerophyll forest (SF), grassy dry SF and wet SF – were analysed. Generalized linear models were used to examine changes in species richness with increasing time since wildfire and analysis of similarities to examine changes in community composition. Chi‐squared tests were conducted to examine the distribution of individual species across four time since fire categories. Results: Plant species relationships to fire varied between the three formations. Shrubby dry SF supported lower plant species richness with increasing time since wildfire and this was associated with shifts in community composition. Grassy dry SF showed significant shifts in community composition and species richness in relation to time, with a peak in plant species richness 20–30 yr post fire (either prescribed fire or wildfire). Wet SF increased in species richness until 10–20 yr post wildfire then displayed a general declining trend. Species richness in each vegetation type was not related to the fire frequencies and fire intervals observed in this study. Conclusions: Long‐unburnt (30–50 yr post wildfire) forests appeared to play a minor role in the maintenance of plant species diversity in dry forest systems, although this was more significant in wet forests. Maintenance of a range of fire ages within each vegetation formation will assist in maintaining floristic diversity within regions.     

Fire frequency and biodiversity conservation in Australian tropical savannas: implications from the Kapalga fire experiment

Abstract Every year large proportions of northern Australia's tropical savanna landscapes are burnt, resulting in high fire frequencies and short intervals between fires. The dominant fire management paradigm in these regions is the use of low‐intensity prescribed fire early in the dry season, to reduce the incidence of higher‐intensity, more extensive wildfire later in the year. This use of frequent prescribed fire to mitigate against high‐intensity wildfire has parallels with fire management in temperate forests of southern Australia. However, unlike in southern Australia, the ecological implications of high fire frequency have received little attention in the north. CSIRO and collaborators recently completed a landscape‐scale fire experiment at Kapalga in Kakadu National Park, Northern Territory, Australia, and here we provide a synthesis of the effects of experimental fire regimes on biodiversity, with particular consideration of fire frequency and, more specifically, time‐since‐fire. Two recurring themes emerged from Kapalga. First, much of the savanna biota is remarkably resilient to fire, even of high intensity. Over the 5‐year experimental period, the abundance of most invertebrate groups remained unaffected by fire treatment, as did the abundance of most vertebrate species, and we were unable to detect any effect of fire on floristic composition of the grass‐layer. Riparian vegetation and associated stream biota, as well as small mammals, were notable exceptions to this general resilience. Second, the occurrence of fire, independent of its intensity, was often the major factor influencing fire‐sensitive species. This was especially the case for extinction‐prone small mammals, which have suffered serious population declines across northern Australia in recent decades. Results from Kapalga indicate that key components of the savanna biota of northern Australia favour habitat that has remained unburnt for at least several years. This raises a serious conservation concern, given that very little relatively long unburnt habitat currently occurs in conservation reserves, with most sites being burnt at least once every 2 years. We propose a conservation objective of increasing the area that remains relatively long unburnt. This could be achieved either by reducing the proportion of the landscape burnt each year, or by setting prescribed fires more strategically. The provision of appropriately long unburnt habitat is a conservation challenge for Australia's tropical savanna landscapes, just as it is for its temperate forests.     

Contrasting responses of small mammals to fire and topographic refugia

Unburnt patches within burnt landscapes are expected to provide an important resource for fauna, potentially acting as a refuge from direct effects of fire and allowing animals to persist in burnt landscapes. Nevertheless, there is little information about the way refugia are used by fauna and how populations may be affected by them. Planned burns are often patchy, with unburnt areas generally associated with gully systems providing a good opportunity to study faunal use of refugia. We used a before–after control‐impact design associated with a planned burn in south eastern Australia to investigate how two small mammal species, the bush rat Rattus fuscipes and agile antechinus Antechinus agilis, used unburnt gully systems within a larger burnt area. We tested three alternative hypotheses relating to post‐fire abundance: (i) active refugia – abundance would increase in unburnt patches because of a post‐fire shift of individuals from burnt to unburnt areas; (ii) passive refugia – abundance in unburnt patches would remain similar to pre‐fire levels; and (iii) limited or no refugia – abundance would reduce in unburnt patches related to the change induced by fire in the wider landscape. We found the two species responded differently to the presence of unburnt refugia in the landscape. Relative to controls, fire had little effect on bush rat abundance in gullies, supporting hypothesis 2. In contrast, agile antechinus abundance increased in gullies immediately post‐fire consistent with a shift of individuals from burnt parts of the landscape, supporting hypothesis 1. Differences in site fidelity, habitat use and intraspecific competition between these species are suggested as likely factors influencing responses to refugia. The way unburnt patches function as faunal refugia and the subsequent influence they have on post‐fire population dynamics, will to some extent depend on the life history attributes of individual species.     

Bat activity before and after a severe wildfire in Pilliga forests: Resilience influenced by fire extent and landscape mobility?

Wildfires are becoming increasingly severe and common in many parts of the world, yet their effects on certain taxa remain poorly studied. In November 2006, a major wildfire occurred in the Pilliga forests of north‐west New South Wales, Australia. This fire was severe and extensive, burning more than 120 000 ha. Prior to the fire, we conducted a study in the affected area assessing bat activity in relation to flyway size and riparian zones, allowing us to opportunistically compare before – and – after effects of wildfire on bats in burnt and unburnt areas. We assessed how bat activity and bat composition changed from 1 year pre‐fire to 1 year post‐fire and 4 years post‐fire, accounting for the effects of flyway size. A BACI analysis showed that there was an effect of time (year) on bat activity, with activity markedly reduced in both burnt and unburnt sites in the year post‐ fire, before recovering 4‐years post‐fire to levels that approached pre‐burn activity. However, there was no treatment or interaction effect, indicating fire alone did not affect bat activity at our sites. Activity was 50% lower at supplementary sites more remote (~5 km) from the fire edge. Multi‐dimensional scaling and permanova described a strong effect of year but no evidence of fire or stream size‐mediated effects on species composition. The drop in activity post‐fire coincided with a period of drought that subsequently broke in the year prior to our survey 4 years post‐fire. Some species‐specific responses to the fire were evident and depended on the proximity to unburnt forest. We suggest the potential for landscape re‐assortment, whereby some species may move from the unburnt landscape into the burnt landscape, possibly in response to a resource pulse of insects. A landscape pattern of movement could obscure the detection of direct fire effects on mobile bats. We suggest fire extent, proximity to unburnt vegetation and severity are key considerations when interpreting the response of bats to wildfire.     

Firescape ecology: how topography determines the contrasting distribution of fire and rain forest in the south‐west of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area

Aim To test the hypothesis that ‘islands’ of fire‐sensitive rain forest are restricted to topographic fire refugia and investigate the role of topography–fire interactions in fire‐mediated alternative stable state models. Location A vegetation mosaic of moorland, sclerophyll scrub, wet sclerophyll eucalypt forest and rain forest in the rugged, fire‐prone landscapes of south‐west Tasmania, Australia. Methods We used geospatial statistics to: (1) identify the topographic determinants of rain forest distribution on nutrient‐poor substrates, and (2) identify the vegetation and topographic variables that are important in controlling the spatial pattern of a series of very large fires (> 40,000 ha) that were mapped using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery. Results Rain forest was more likely to be found in valleys and on steep south‐facing slopes. Fires typically burned within highly flammable treeless moorland and stopped on boundaries with less flammable surrounding vegetation types such as wet sclerophyll forest and rain forest. Controlling for the effect of vegetation, fires were most likely to burn on flats, ridges and steep north‐facing slopes and least likely to burn in valleys and on steep south‐facing slopes. These results suggest an antagonism between fire and rain forest, in which rain forest preferentially occupies parts of the landscape where fire is least likely to burn. Main conclusions The distribution of rain forest on nutrient‐poor substrates was clearly related to parts of the landscape that are protected from fire (i.e. topographic fire refugia). The relative flammability of vegetation types at the landscape scale offers support to the proposed hierarchy of fire frequencies (moorland > scrub > wet sclerophyll > rain forest) that underpins the ecological models proposed for the region. The interaction between fire occurrence and a range of topographic variables suggests that topography plays an important role in mediating the fire–vegetation feedbacks thought to maintain vegetation mosaics in south‐west Tasmania. We suggest that these fire–topography interactions should be included in models of fire‐mediated alternative stable vegetation states in other fire‐prone landscapes.     

全球变化背景下野火研究进展

野火是森林和多种植被生态系统面临的最重要自然干扰,也是一种重要的自然灾害;而人类活动已在全球范围内显著影响了野火的发生与分布,因此野火成为全球变化及其环境影响研究的关键议题之一。本文基于国际野火研究的文献搜索和统计分析,从野火的观测-评估-预警技术、野火时空格局研究、气候变化和人类活动对野火的影响、野火的环境-生态-进化效应等方面入手,综述了自21世纪以来的国际野火研究进展。概括起来,遥感技术的快速发展,推动了野火观测的时空分辨率不断提高,对野火时空格局的刻画从单一因子向多重指标的火烧体系评估转变。气候变化在某些区域已经显著影响了野火的发生频率,预计随着全球变暖野火风险将进一步加大,并且极端大火的发生机制和生态影响越来越受到关注。人类活动一方面通过增加火源提高了野火频率,另一方面又通过提高生态系统管理的强度、扑救火灾以及降低可燃物的连通性抑制了野火的发生。植被在长期演化过程中形成了一系列适应火的功能机制,这些功能属性影响着生态系统对野火的响应,并对火后生态恢复和重建具有科学指导价值。未来野火研究将向跨时空尺度、观测和模拟深度融合、典型机制和大尺度效应相结合的方向发展。     

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

The historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate – including short‐ and long‐term droughts – are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire‐related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem.     

Broadleaf tree phenology and springtime wildfire occurrence in boreal Canada

Although broadleaf tree species of the boreal biome have a lower flammability compared to conifers, there is a period following snow melt and prior to leaf flush (i.e., greenup), termed the “spring window” by fire managers, when these forests are relatively conducive to wildfire ignition and spread. The goal of this study was to characterize the duration, timing, and fire proneness of the spring window across boreal Canada and assess the link between these phenological variables and the incidence of springtime wildfires. We used remotely sensed snow cover and greenup data to identify the annual spring window for five boreal ecozones from 2001 to 2021 and then compared seasonality of wildfire starts (by cause) and fire-conducive weather in relation to this window, averaged over the 21-year period. We conducted a path analysis to concomitantly evaluate the influence of the spring window's duration, the timing of greenup, and fire-conducive weather on the annual number and the seasonality of spring wildfires. Results show that the characteristics of spring windows vary substantially from year to year and among geographic zones, with the interior west of Canada having the longest and most fire-conducive spread window and, accordingly, the greatest springtime wildfire activity. We also provide support for the belief that springtime weather generally promotes wind-driven, rather than drought-driven wildfires. The path analyses show idiosyncratic behavior among ecozones, but, in general, the seasonality of the wildfire season is mainly driven by the timing of the greenup, whereas the number of spring wildfires mostly responds to the duration of the spring window and the frequency of fire-conducive weather. The results of this study allows us to better understand and anticipate the biome-wide changes projected for the northern forests of North America.     

Climatic thresholds shape northern high‐latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change

Boreal forests and arctic tundra cover 33% of global land area and store an estimated 50% of total soil carbon. Because wildfire is a key driver of terrestrial carbon cycling, increasing fire activity in these ecosystems would likely have global implications. To anticipate potential spatiotemporal variability in fire‐regime shifts, we modeled the spatially explicit 30‐yr probability of fire occurrence as a function of climate and landscape features (i.e. vegetation and topography) across Alaska. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models captured the spatial distribution of fire across boreal forest and tundra ecoregions (AUC from 0.63–0.78 and Pearson correlations between predicted and observed data from 0.54–0.71), highlighting summer temperature and annual moisture availability as the most influential controls of historical fire regimes. Modeled fire–climate relationships revealed distinct thresholds to fire occurrence, with a nonlinear increase in the probability of fire above an average July temperature of 13.4°C and below an annual moisture availability (i.e. P‐PET) of approximately 150 mm. To anticipate potential fire‐regime responses to 21st‐century climate change, we informed our BRTs with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under the RCP 6.0 scenario. Based on these projected climatic changes alone (i.e. not accounting for potential changes in vegetation), our results suggest an increasing probability of wildfire in Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, but of varying magnitude across space and throughout the 21st century. Regions with historically low flammability, including tundra and the forest–tundra boundary, are particularly vulnerable to climatically induced changes in fire activity, with up to a fourfold increase in the 30‐yr probability of fire occurrence by 2100. Our results underscore the climatic potential for novel fire regimes to develop in these ecosystems, relative to the past 6000–35 000 yr, and spatial variability in the vulnerability of wildfire regimes and associated ecological processes to 21st‐century climate change.     

Return of Fire as a Restoration Tool: Long‐Term Effects of Burn Severity on Habitat Use by Mexican Fox Squirrels

After decades of suppression, fire is returning to forests of the western United States through wildfires and prescribed burns. These fires may aid restoration of vegetation structure and processes, which could improve conditions for wildlife species and reduce severe wildfire risk. Understanding response of wildlife species to fires is essential to forest restoration because contemporary fires may not have the same effects as historical fires. Recent fires in the Chiricahua Mountains of southeastern Arizona provided opportunity to investigate long‐term effects of burn severity on habitat selection of a native wildlife species. We surveyed burned forest for squirrel feeding sign and related vegetation characteristics to frequency of feeding sign occurrence. We used radio‐telemetry within fire‐influenced forest to determine home ranges of Mexican fox squirrels, Sciurus nayaritensis chiricahuae, and compared vegetation characteristics within home ranges to random areas available to squirrels throughout burned conifer forest. Squirrels fed in forest with open understory and closed canopy cover. Vegetation within home ranges was characterized by lower understory density, consistent with the effects of low‐severity fire, and larger trees than random locations. Our results suggest that return of low‐severity fire can help restore habitat for Mexican fox squirrels and other native wildlife species with similar habitat affiliations in forests with a historical regime of frequent, low‐severity fire. Our study contributes to an understanding of the role and impact of fire in forest ecosystems and the implications for forest restoration as fire returns to the region.     

Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi‐arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non‐native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time‐lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26‐year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non‐native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non‐native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years’ growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1–3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35‐year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.     

Does alpine grazing reduce blazing? A landscape test of a widely‐held hypothesis

Abstract ‘Alpine grazing reduces blazing’ is a widely and strongly held view concerning the effects of livestock grazing on fuels, and therefore fire behaviour and impact, in Australia's high country landscapes. As a test of this hypothesis, we examined the patterns of burning across the alpine (treeless) landscapes of the Bogong High Plains in Victoria, following the extensive fires of January 2003. Data were collected from multiple transects, each 3–5 km long, with survey points located randomly at either 50, 200 or 500 m intervals. The transects traversed the major regions of the Bogong High Plains, both grazed and ungrazed. At each point, we recorded whether the point was burnt or unburnt, the vegetation type (closed‐heath, open‐heath, grassland or herbfield), the estimated prefire shrub cover, slope, aspect, and a GPS location. At burnt heathland sites, we recorded the minimum twig diameter (an a posteriori measure of fire severity) in a sample of common shrubs. In total, there were 108 km of transect lines, 419 survey points and 4050 twig measurements, with sample points equally distributed across grazed and ungrazed country. The occurrence of fire (i.e. burnt or unburnt) in grazed and ungrazed areas was analysed by logistic regression; the variation in twig diameters by anova . Approximately half of all points were burnt. There was no statistically significant difference between grazed and ungrazed areas in the proportion of points burnt. Fire occurrence was determined primarily by vegetation type, with the proportion burnt being 0.87 for closed‐heath, 0.59 for open‐heath, and 0.13 for grassland and all snow‐patch herbfield points unburnt. In both closed‐heath and open‐heath, grazing did not significantly lower the severity of fire, as measured by the diameter of burnt twigs. We interpret the lack of a grazing effect in terms of shrub dynamics (little or no grazing effect on long‐term cover of taller shrubs), diet and behaviour of cattle (herbs and dwarf shrubs eaten; tall shrubs not eaten and closed‐heath vegetation generally avoided), and fuel flammability (shrubs more flammable than grass). Whatever effects livestock grazing may have on vegetation cover, and therefore fuels in alpine landscapes, they are likely to be highly localized, with such effects unlikely to translate into landscape‐scale reduction of fire occurrence or severity. The use of livestock grazing in Australian alpine environments as a fire abatement practice is not justified on scientific grounds.     

Post‐fire regeneration in alpine heathland: Does fire severity matter?

Fire severity is thought to be an important determinant of landscape patterns of post‐fire regeneration, yet there have been few studies of the effects of variation in fire severity at landscape scales on floristic diversity and composition, and none within alpine vegetation. Understanding how fire severity affects alpine vegetation is important because fire is relatively infrequent in alpine environments. Globally, alpine ecosystems are at risk from climate change, which, in addition to warming, is likely to increase the severity and frequency of fire in south‐eastern Australia. Here we examine the effects of variation in fire severity on plant diversity and vegetation composition, 5 years after the widespread fires of 2003. We used floristic data from two wide‐spread vegetation types on the Bogong High Plains: open heathland and closed heathland. Three alternative models were tested relating variation in plant community attributes (e.g. diversity, ground cover of dominant species, amount of bare ground) to variation in fire severity. The models were (i) ‘linear’, attributes vary linearly with fire severity; (ii) ‘intermediate disturbance’, attributes are highest at intermediate fire severity and lowest at both low‐ and high‐severity; and (iii) ‘null’, attributes are unaffected by fire severity. In both heathlands, there were few differences in floristic diversity, cover of dominant species and community composition, across the strong fire severity gradient. The null model was most supported in the vast majority of cases, with only limited support for either the linear and intermediate disturbance models. Our data indicate that in both heathlands, vegetation attributes in burnt vegetation were converging towards that of the unburnt state. We conclude that fire severity had little impact on post‐fire regeneration, and that both closed and open alpine heathlands are resilient to variation in fire severity during landscape scale fires.     

Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high‐severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests

In frequent fire forests of the western United States, a legacy of fire suppression coupled with increases in fire weather severity have altered fire regimes and vegetation dynamics. When coupled with projected climate change, these conditions have the potential to lead to vegetation type change and altered carbon (C) dynamics. In the Sierra Nevada, fuels reduction approaches that include mechanical thinning followed by regular prescribed fire are one approach to restore the ability of the ecosystem to tolerate episodic fire and still sequester C. Yet, the spatial extent of the area requiring treatment makes widespread treatment implementation unlikely. We sought to determine if a priori knowledge of where uncharacteristic wildfire is most probable could be used to optimize the placement of fuels treatments in a Sierra Nevada watershed. We developed two treatment placement strategies: the naive strategy, based on treating all operationally available area and the optimized strategy, which only treated areas where crown‐killing fires were most probable. We ran forecast simulations using projected climate data through 2,100 to determine how the treatments differed in terms of C sequestration, fire severity, and C emissions relative to a no‐management scenario. We found that in both the short (20 years) and long (100 years) term, both management scenarios increased C stability, reduced burn severity, and consequently emitted less C as a result of wildfires than no‐management. Across all metrics, both scenarios performed the same, but the optimized treatment required significantly less C removal (naive=0.42 Tg C, optimized=0.25 Tg C) to achieve the same treatment efficacy. Given the extent of western forests in need of fire restoration, efficiently allocating treatments is a critical task if we are going to restore adaptive capacity in frequent‐fire forests.     

Divergent responses of fire to recent warming and drying across south‐eastern Australia

The response of fire to climate change may vary across fuel types characteristic of differing vegetation types (i.e. litter vs. grass). Models of fire under climatic change capture these differing potential responses to varying degrees. Across south‐eastern Australia, an elevation in the severity of weather conditions conducive to fire has been measured in recent decades. We examined trends in area burned (1975–2009) to determine if a corresponding increase in fire had occurred across the diverse range of ecosystems found in this part of the continent. We predicted that an increase in fire, due to climatic warming and drying, was more likely to have occurred in moist, temperate forests near the coast than in arid and semiarid woodlands of the interior, due to inherent contrasts in the respective dominant fuel types (woody litter vs. herbaceous fuels). Significant warming (i.e. increased temperature and number of hot days) and drying (i.e. negative precipitation anomaly, number of days with low humidity) occurred across most of the 32 Bioregions examined. The results were mostly consistent with predictions, with an increase in area burned in seven of eight forest Bioregions, whereas area burned either declined (two) or did not change significantly (nine) in drier woodland Bioregions. In 12 woodland Bioregions, data were insufficient for analysis of temporal trends in fire. Increases in fire attributable mostly to warming or drying were confined to three Bioregions. In the remainder, such increases were mostly unrelated to warming or drying trends and therefore may be due to other climate effects not explored (e.g. lightning ignitions) or possible anthropogenic influences. Projections of future fire must therefore not only account for responses of different fuel systems to climatic change but also the wider range of ecological and human effects on interactions between fire and vegetation.     

Wildfire potential evaluation during a drought event with a regional climate model and NDVI

Regional climate modeling is a technique for simulating high-resolution physical processes in the atmosphere, soil and vegetation. It can be used to evaluate wildfire potential by either providing meteorological conditions for computation of fire indices or predicting soil moisture as a direct measure of fire potential. This study examines these roles using a regional climate model (RCM) for the drought and wildfire events in 1988 in the northern United States. The National Center for Atmospheric Research regional climate model (RegCM) was used to conduct simulations of a summer month in each year from 1988 to 1995. The simulated precipitation and maximum surface air temperature were used to calculate the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is a popular fire potential index. We found that the KBDI increased significantly under the simulated drought condition. The corresponding fire potential was upgraded from moderate for a normal year to high level for the drought year. High fire potential is often an indicator for occurrence of intense and extensive wildfires. Fire potential changed in the opposite direction for the 1993 flood event, indicating little possibility of severe wildfires. The soil moisture and KBDI evaluations under the drought and flood conditions are in agreement with satellite remotely sensed vegetation conditions and the actual wildfire activity. The precipitation anomaly was a more important contributor to the KBDI changes than temperature anomaly. The small magnitude of the simulated soil moisture anomalies during the drought event did not provide sufficient evidence for the role of simulated soil moisture as a direct measure of wildfire potential.     

Population collapse and retreat to fire refugia of the Tasmanian endemic conifer Athrotaxis selaginoides following the transition from Aboriginal to European fire management

Untangling the nuanced relationships between landscape, fire disturbance, human agency, and climate is key to understanding rapid population declines of fire‐sensitive plant species. Using multiple lines of evidence across temporal and spatial scales (vegetation survey, stand structure analysis, dendrochronology, and fire history reconstruction), we document landscape‐scale population collapse of the long‐lived, endemic Tasmanian conifer Athrotaxis selaginoides in remote montane catchments in southern Tasmania. We contextualized the findings of this field‐based study with a Tasmanian‐wide geospatial analysis of fire‐killed and unburned populations of the species. Population declines followed European colonization commencing in 1802 ad that disrupted Aboriginal landscape burning. Prior to European colonization, fire events were infrequent but frequency sharply increased afterwards. Dendrochronological analysis revealed that reconstructed fire years were associated with abnormally warm/dry conditions, with below‐average streamflow, and were strongly teleconnected to the Southern Annular Mode. The multiple fires that followed European colonization caused near total mortality of A. selaginoides and resulted in pronounced floristic, structural vegetation, and fuel load changes. Burned stands have very few regenerating A. selaginoides juveniles yet tree‐establishment reconstruction of fire‐killed adults exhibited persistent recruitment in the period prior to European colonization. Collectively, our findings indicate that this fire‐sensitive Gondwanan conifer was able to persist with burning by Aboriginal Tasmanians, despite episodic widespread forest fires. By contrast, European burning led to the restriction of A. selaginoides to prime topographic fire refugia. Increasingly, frequent fires caused by regional dry and warming trends and increased ignitions by humans and lightning are breaching fire refugia; hence, the survival Tasmanian Gondwanan species demands sustained and targeted fire management.