Development of tree-ring width chronologies and tree-growth response to climate in the mountains surrounding the Issyk-Kul Lake,Central Asia

Three tree-ring width chronologies were developed from 75 Picea schrenkiana trees ranging from low- to high-elevation in the mountains surrounding the Issyk-Kul Lake, Northeast Kyrgyzstan. The reliable chronologies extend back to the mid-18th and late-19th centuries. Spatial correlation analysis indicates that the chronologies for the relatively high-elevation trees contain large-scale climatic signals, while the chronology at relatively low elevation may reflect the local climate variability. The results of the response of tree growth to climate show that these chronologies contain an annual precipitation signal. Furthermore, the influence of temperature indicates mainly moisture stress that is enhanced with rising elevation. The tree-ring records also captured a wetting trend in eastern Central Asia over the past decades. These new tree-ring width chronologies provide reliable proxies of precipitation variability in Central Asia and contribute to the International Tree-Ring Data Bank.     

Climate signal strength in tree-ring width of spruce growing in the Solovetsky Islands (Russia)

In this study we used 14 spruce tree-ring width local chronologies from sites that are located in different landscape conditions. The climatic response function for the entire period (116 years) shows that all local chronologies without exception have a positive relationship with June temperature (from 0.196 to 0.408) despite quite different local environmental conditions. This finding allowed us to combine all tree-ring width local chronologies into a composite spruce chronology covering the period of 1676–2016 CE with EPS exceeding the 0.85 threshold. The composite chronology was scaled against June air temperatures (CRU TS 4.01) in order to reconstruct it. Monthly air temperature records from the Arkhangelsk weather station were used as an additional source to validate tree-ring based June temperature reconstruction. It is quite remarkable that our reconstruction matches the Archangelsk records not only in the 20th-early 21st centuries but also in the 19th century, confirming the reliability of the reconstruction over more than two centuries. We also used daily records from the nearest Kem’-Port station to identify a more precise target-window. Current research shows that the spruce response to daily temperature is not limited by June, but also extends up to almost half of July. The warmest reconstructed year occurred in 1856 as confirmed by the data published in the local chronicle. The cooling recorded in the historical evidences (describing extremely severe ice conditions in the Arctic seas during the Great Northern Expedition (1733–1743)) was not corroborated by our reconstruction. In the study, we discuss the reasons of the discrepancies found between Solovki June temperature reconstructions and other data such as different seasonality of the compared records, real local climate warming in Solovki, the applied standardization technique, and low of chronologies’ replication. The most reliable part of the reconstruction part lasting from the early 19th to the early 21st centuries is also discussed in terms of its properties like wavelength analyses, and the assessment of influence of volcanic eruptions.     

Consequences of larch budmoth outbreaks on the climatic significance of ring width and stable isotopes of larch

Tree-ring widths and stable carbon and oxygen isotopes of five European larch trees from Lötschental, Switzerland were investigated for the period 1900–2004. The objective was to test the suitability of each of these parameters for high-frequency climate reconstructions. This is of special interest with regard to the problem of cyclic larch budmoth (LBM) infestations of alpine larch trees. The results clearly demonstrate that tree-ring width chronologies are not suitable for high-frequency reconstructions because infestations lead to variably reduced tree-ring increments, largely suppressing climate signals. On the other hand, the stable isotope chronologies proved less affected by larch budmoth outbreaks, independent of the strength of the infestations. The correlation of the carbon isotopes with summer temperatures was especially high (r = 0.73) and with precipitation lower but nevertheless significant (r = ?0.43). Oxygen isotopes were also correlated with summer temperature (r = 0.46); however, a certain perturbation of normal oxygen isotope signatures due to LBM outbreaks was evident. Contrary to tree-ring widths, none of the LBM outbreaks caused a significant disturbance of the current year’s isotopic climate signal and, most importantly, there were no delayed effects in the following years. Thus, stable carbon isotopes in tree-ring chronologies of the European larch provide an excellent opportunity for high-frequency temperature reconstructions.     

Dendroclimatic analysis of Pinus peuce Griseb. at subalpine and treeline locations in Pirin Mountains,Bulgaria

Tree rings are a natural archive containing valuable information about environmental changes. Among the most sensitive ecosystems to such changes are high-mountain forests. Tree-ring series from such locations are exceptionally valuable both for climate reconstructions and for studying the effects of climate changes on forest ecosystems.The objective of our study is to present new long tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus peuce Griseb. from several locations at Pirin Mountains in southwestern Bulgaria, to explore their correlation with monthly temperatures and precipitation in the research area and to assess their potential for climate reconstruction.We built three long-term index chronologies for the radial increment of P. peuce from treeline locations in the study region. The longest chronology spans 675 years. We studied the impact of monthly air temperature and precipitation on its growth for the past 86 years using multiple regression analysis. Our analysis shows that P. peuce growth is positively influenced by high temperatures at the end of the previous growing season, especially at the two sites in Banderitsa valley until the middle of the 1970s, and negatively affected by cold winters. In some of the sample plots its growth was also positively correlated with high summer temperatures. However, even at these high altitudes in some of the locations on steep slopes P. peuce showed signs of negative impact of drought during the hottest summer months (especially in August).Our chronologies contribute to the paleoclimatic record for southwestern Bulgaria, which could provide baseline information about past climate variability and improve our understanding of current and future environmental changes.     

A 1700-year Athrotaxis selaginoides tree-ring width chronology from southeastern Australia

Few Southern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies exceed 1000 years in length. We present a ca. 1700 years of indexed values for the long-lived conifer Athrotaxis selaginoides at Cradle Mt in southeastern Australia and compare it with the only other published millennial-plus length tree-ring chronology for Australia: the nearby Mt Read Lagarostrobos franklinii. We use simple correlation function and pointer year analyses to compare the climate responses of the two species (temperature, precipitation and growing degree days). Both chronologies show accelerated growth at their modern ends, but this growth acceleration is not synchronous, beginning approximately a quarter of a century earlier at the Cradle Mt site. This discrepancy may highlight the relevance of chronology composition and/or physiological differences in the species. Although the seasonality of the climatic responses of the two species is similar, that of A. selaginoides is generally weaker than that of L. franklinii. Somewhat paradoxically, the only pointer years in common between the chronologies are 1898 and 1908 CE. The periods from 600 to 900 CE and ∼1200–1450 CE are conspicuous for their absence of positive pointer years while no negative pointer years occur for either site from ∼1200–1350 CE. It is possible that differing patterns of pointer years can be partially explained by a peak in establishment from ∼1150–1850 CE at the Mt Read L. franklinii site compared to continuous establishment at Cradle Mt. Although statistically significant and time-stable climate responses for the A. selaginoides chronology are too weak to base a single-chronology climate reconstruction on, the long chronology will likely make an important contribution to future multi-proxy temperature reconstructions for southeastern Australia.     

The variable climate response of Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata Engelm.)

Recent increases in temperature over the semi-arid western United States have been shown to exacerbate drought, reducing streamflow, and increasing stress on ecosystems. Our understanding of the role temperature played during drought in the more distant past is far from complete. While numerous tree-ring proxy records of moisture provide evidence for past extreme droughts in this region, few contemporaneous tree-ring proxy records of temperatures exist. This limits our ability to evaluate the variable influence of temperature on drought over past centuries and to contextualize the present interplay of moisture and temperature during more recent drought events. It is also important to understand the complexity of climatic interactions that produced drought under natural variability prior to evaluating the potential impacts of future climate change. In response to this knowledge gap, we undertook the first extensive evaluation of climate sensitivity in Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata Engelm.), focusing on the potential for developing new multi-century proxy records of both temperature and precipitation. We isolated dominant patterns of growth variability among trees from ten ring-width datasets across the Southern Rocky Mountains of Colorado and New Mexico and assessed their response to climate. We utilized both an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and a modified form of hierarchical cluster analysis to produce time series representing growth patterns in P. aristata. The results indicate a widespread June drought stress signal with a high potential for multi-millennial reconstruction. We also found a positive minimum temperature response during late summer, evident only at lower frequency and co-occurring at locations with the June drought stress signal. The potential for temperature reconstruction will require further investigation into the physiological linkages between P. aristata and climate variability. The presence of multiple climate responses within P. aristata sampling sites highlights the need for particular care when including P. aristata in regional climate reconstructions.     

Testing for tree-ring divergence in the European Alps

Evidence for reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature has been reported from multiple forests along the high northern latitudes. This alleged circumpolar phenomenon described the apparent inability of temperature-sensitive tree-ring width and density chronologies to parallel increasing instrumental temperature measurements since the mid-20th century. In addition to such low-frequency trend offset, the inability of formerly temperature-sensitive tree growth to reflect high-frequency temperature signals in a warming world is indicated at some boreal sites, mainly in Alaska, the Yukon and Siberia. Here, we refer to both of these findings as the ‘divergence problem’ (DP), with their causes and scale being debated. If DP is widespread and the result of climatic forcing, the overall reliability of tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions should be questioned. Testing for DP benefits from well-replicated tree-ring and instrumental data spanning from the 19th to the 21st century. Here, we present a network of 124 larch and spruce sites across the European Alpine arc. Tree-ring width chronologies from 40 larch and 24 spruce sites were selected based on their correlation with early (1864–1933) instrumental temperatures to assess their ability of tracking recent (1934–2003) temperature variations. After the tree-ring series of both species were detrended in a manner that allows low-frequency variations to be preserved and scaled against summer temperatures, no unusual late 20th century DP is found. Independent tree-ring width and density evidence for unprecedented late 20th century temperatures with respect to the past millennium further reinforces our results.     

Dendrochronology in the tropics using tree-rings of Pinus kesiya

The recent decade has witnessed considerable progress in the number of tree-ring studies using the tropical conifer taxa, Pinus kesiya. Several tree-ring networks have been established in less explored regions in Northeast India, Southwest China and Vietnam. The seasonal climate response of P. kesiya tree-rings has been examined and used to reconstruct temperature and soil moisture variability over the past century and augment the short instrumental records in South and Southeast Asia. In addition to standard approaches, the application of stable isotope, wood density, and blue intensity measurements indicates a significant development in P. kesiya studies. This review elaborates the future prospects of using multiple tree-ring parameters to establish discrete proxies besides tree-ring width. We recommend blue intensity as a cost-effective alternative to quantitative wood anatomy in tropical pines, and call for routine assessments of the temporal stability of climate-growth responses to identify and study potentially non-stationary climate signals. Efforts should be made towards developing extensive networks of long P. kesiya tree-ring chronologies to extend regional climate reconstructions.     

Inconsistent comparison of temperature reconstructions over the Common Era

Büntgen et al. (2020) present a new reconstruction of extra-tropical summer temperatures based on updated versions of a large number of summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere (NH), which cover the full Common Era (CE). This new dataset allows the authors to draw conclusions about NH temperature history and its relation to climate forcing, marking an important contribution to our understanding of past climate changes. While we have no issues with the main conclusions of B20, here we show that their comparison with PAGES 2k reconstructions is flawed: B20′s reconstruction focused on regional, summertime temperature, while the PAGES 2k reconstruction targeted global, annual mean temperature. For their reconstruction intercomparisons, B20 rescale all six tree-ring based reconstructions to their regional observational target but fail to do this same processing step with the PAGES 2k reconstructions. This inconsistent comparison leads B20 to incorrectly conclude that the PAGES 2k reconstructions severely lack variance and are therefore unreliable. In this contribution, we present a consistent comparison of the B20 and PAGES 2k reconstructions, and we highlight the importance of careful illustrations for interpreting scientific results both in the literature and in the public discussion. Our results show that, if more accurate methods for comparisons are applied, the temperature history and low-frequency amplitudes of the different proxy selection approaches and reconstruction products are not at odds, but actually consistent with the differences between their targets over the pre-industrial CE.     

Maximum June–July temperatures in the southwest Yukon over the last 300 years reconstructed from tree rings

A network of seven high-elevation white spruce tree-ring chronologies from the southwest Yukon is used to reconstruct June–July maximum temperatures (T_max) back to 1684 AD, explaining 46.6% of the climatic variation over the 1946–1995 calibration period. The chronologies are characterised by low interannual ring-width variability and display similar patterns of ring-width variation across the sample area over the last 300 years. The driving force of this common signal appears to be a tree growth response to summer temperatures across the region. The reconstruction compares well with regional records of temperature variability derived from annual ring-width and maximum density data. Periods of cooler temperatures correspond with solar minima and glacier advances, particularly during the early 18th and the early 19th centuries. The maximum reconstructed temperatures are in the 1940s with 20th century values averaging 0.46 °C higher than the 1684–1899 period. In contrast to several regional studies, there does not appear to be a reduction in the sensitivity of tree growth to temperature at these sites during the late 20th century. Instead, a slight increase in the strength of the temperature–tree growth relationship is observed during recent decades. A possible explanation for this difference is the absence of significant summer season warming in the southwest Yukon region in comparison to other areas that have demonstrated this response change. This research is part of an ongoing project aimed at assessing the spatial and temporal potential of dendroclimatic reconstructions from the Yukon Territory.     

Centennial Scots pine chronologies for western,central and eastern Lithuania

Although two centennial Scots pine chronologies for the dating of timber in Lithuania were constructed in the 2000 s, the Baltic countries still lack a network of regional chronologies. To fill this gap, we constructed three Scots pine chronologies for western, central and eastern Lithuania. Here we present chronologies covering the fifteen to the twentieth centuries. Our analysis revealed a strong teleconnection of the compiled chronologies with Scots pine chronologies constructed in Poland, Latvia, Estonia, and Belarus. The established link with Belarus chronologies and the fact that some of the timber in Lithuanian buildings could be of Belarus origin is important in the long-distance timber trade during the last 500 years. Dendroclimatological analysis has shown that constructed tree-ring chronologies are sensitive to air temperatures in February and March. Therefore, the constructed chronologies have a potential for climate reconstructions and dendroprovenancing.     

Development of tree-ring maximum latewood density chronologies for the western Tien Shan Mountains,China: Influence of detrending method and climate response

Three tree-ring maximum latewood density chronologies were developed from high elevation Picea schrenkiana sites in the western Tien Shan Mountains using different detrending methods. The new chronologies extend back to the early 16th and late 17th centuries, and contain significant late spring and summer temperature signals, respectively. An assessment of varying detrending methods and band-pass filtering the chronologies revealed only slightly differing low frequency trends retained in the maximum latewood densities. The distance between sampling sites and the varying seasonality of limiting climatic factors are identified as key drivers affecting the correlation among the maximum latewood density records in the study region. The new chronologies represent reliable proxies of high elevation late spring and summer temperature variability in an area underrepresented by such data, and are ready-to-use for network analyses addressing longer-term climate variations in eastern central Asia.     

Can We Use Tree Rings of Black Alder to Reconstruct Lake Levels? A Case Study for the Mecklenburg Lake District,Northeastern Germany

In this study, we explore the potential to reconstruct lake-level (and groundwater) fluctuations from tree-ring chronologies of black alder (Alnus glutinosa L.) for three study lakes in the Mecklenburg Lake District, northeastern Germany. As gauging records for lakes in this region are generally short, long-term reconstructions of lake-level fluctuations could provide valuable information on past hydrological conditions, which, in turn, are useful to assess dynamics of climate and landscape evolution. We selected black alder as our study species as alder typically thrives as riparian vegetation along lakeshores. For the study lakes, we tested whether a regional signal in lake-level fluctuations and in the growth of alder exists that could be used for long-term regional hydrological reconstructions, but found that local (i.e. site-specific) signals in lake level and tree-ring chronologies prevailed. Hence, we built lake/groundwater-level reconstruction models for the three study lakes individually. Two sets of models were considered based on (1) local tree-ring series of black alder, and (2) site-specific Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices (SPEI). Although the SPEI-based models performed statistically well, we critically reflect on the reliability of these reconstructions, as SPEI cannot account for human influence. Tree-ring based reconstruction models, on the other hand, performed poor. Combined, our results suggest that, for our study area, long-term regional reconstructions of lake-level fluctuations that consider both recent and ancient (e.g., archaeological) wood of black alder seem extremely challenging, if not impossible.     

The importance of early summer temperature and date of snow melt for tree growth in the Siberian Subarctic

Wood material for at least 12 larch trees at six sites [Larix sibirica Ldb, Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr, Larix cajanderi Mayr] near the northern timberline in Siberia was analyzed to investigate influence of climatic factor changes on tree-ring growth at high latitudes. Tree-ring cell size, maximum latewood density and ring width measured by means of image analysis and X-ray radiodensitometry and calculated latewood cell-wall thickness were used. Correlation analysis of tree-ring structure parameter chronologies with temperatures averaged over periods of 5 days (pentad) shows that early summer temperature (mean for 5-6 pentads, depending on the region, starting from the middle of June) and date of snow melt are the most important factors that define seasonal growth and tree-ring structure. Analysis of instrumental climatic data indicates that a positive trend of early summer temperature was combined with winter precipitation (October-April) increase and this combination leads to later snow melt. Based of the results of tree-ring growth modelling, it was shown that later snow melt (hence, delayed initiation of cambial activity and, as a result, decrease of wood production) explains the changes in the relationship between tree ring width and summer temperature dynamics observed after the 1960s for a large area of the Siberian Subarctic. The understanding of the role of winter precipitation in controlling ring growth, through its effect on the timing of cambial activation, suggests the possibility of using ring structure parameters to create reconstructions of past winter precipitation variations.     

A Norway spruce tree-ring width chronology for the Common Era from the Central Scandinavian Mountains

Fennoscandia is one of the most prominent regions in the world for dendroclimatological research. Yet, millennium-long tree-ring chronologies in this region have mainly been developed from Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). To explore the possibility of building long-term chronologies using other dominating tree species in the region, this paper presents the first two millennia-long Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) ring-width chronology from Northern Europe. The chronology is composed of living trees and subfossil wood and covers the period from BCE 115 to 2012 CE. A sufficiently replicated and robust chronology is built for the past 360 years back to 1649 CE. Further back in time, the common growth signal is reduced, and hence the reliability of the earlier section of the chronology is lower. The climate calibration results show that the spruce ring-width correlation with June-July mean temperatures over the period 1901–2012 is positive and significant (r = 0.6, p < 0.01) and representing the temperature variability of a spatial domain covering west-central Scandinavia. These results show the ability of Norway spruce to serve as a proxy for paleoclimatic research and the possibility of extending the chronology far back in time in the region, and therefore present an opportunity for carrying out new inter-and intraregional proxy analyses.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Araucaria araucana</Emphasis> tree-ring chronologies in Argentina: spatial growth variations and climate influences

Seventeen tree-ring chronologies from the conifer Araucaria araucana (Molina) K. Koch have been analyzed across its range of distribution in Argentina. We studied the growth patterns and determined the main climatic factors influencing A. araucana radial growth. All the chronologies show a strong common signal observed by the high amount of variance explained by the first principal component (PC1) and the high mean correlation (r = 0.597) between the chronologies over the 1676–1974 interval. On this basis, we developed a regional chronology that is 866 years long (A.D. 1140–2006) and includes 621 tree-ring series. Based on the PC2 scores, chronologies were clearly separated by elevation in high- and low-elevation records. Regional tree growth is strongly negatively related to temperatures during summer and fall in the previous-growing season and spring in the current-growing season, respectively. A positive association of tree growth with precipitation is recorded during spring in the current growing season. These results suggest a close relationship between A. araucana tree growth and water availability on a regional scale. This observation is also consistent with a positive and significant correlation between our A. araucana regional record and a reconstruction of November–December rainfall for northern Patagonia inferred from the xeric Austrocedrus chilensis during the past 400 years. Negative correlations between A. araucana regional growth and the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region reflect the occurrence of above-mean summer temperatures in the region during positive tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The negative relationship with the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) results from reduced precipitation in our study region during the positive phase of the AAO. The effect of elevation on water availability is consistent with significant correlations between ring-width variations at lower elevations and the Palmer Drought Severity Index during spring and summer in the current growing season. Our study emphasizes the high dendroclimatological potential of A. araucana chronologies for reconstructing past climate variations in northern Patagonia during the past millennium.     

A Pinus cembra L. tree-ring record for late spring to late summer temperature in the Rhaetian Alps,Italy

Ongoing climate change strongly affects high-elevation environments in the European Alps, influencing the cryosphere and the biosphere and causing widespread retreat of glaciers and changes in biomes. Nevertheless, high-elevation areas often lack long meteorological series, and global datasets cannot represent local variations well. Thus, proxy data, such as tree rings, provide information on past climatic variations from these remote sites. Although maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies provide better temperature information than those based on tree-ring width (TRW), MXD series from the European Alps are lacking. To derive high-quality temperature information for the Rhaetian Alps, Pinus cembra L. trees sampled at approximately 2000 m a.s.l. were used to build one MXD chronology spanning from 1647 to 2015. The MXD data were significantly and highly correlated with seasonal May-September mean temperatures. The MXD chronology showed a generally positive trend since the middle of the 19^th century, interrupted by short phases of climatic deterioration in the beginning of the 20^th century and in the 1970s, conforming with the temperature trends. Our results underline the potential for using Pinus cembra L. MXD to reconstruct mean temperature variations, especially during the onset and latter part of the growing season, providing additional information on parts of the growing season not inferred from TRW. Future studies on MXD for this species will increase the availability of temporal and spatial data, allowing detailed climate reconstructions.     

Comparison of living-tree and subfossil ringwidths with summer temperatures from 18, 19 and 20 centuries in Northern Finland

This work seeks to analyse the importance of summer-temperatures an the tree-ring growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) during the past three centuries. Three living-tree chronologies, subfossil pine chronology and one composite tree-ring chronology were constructed from latitudinal and altitudinal forest-limits of pine in northern Finland and compared with meteorological data comes from three localities. These data include early instrumental temperature observations from 18^th and 19^th centuries. The modern meteorological data covers the period from 1860 to present. Response functions were derived by means of Pearson correlations using five subperiods as follows: 1738–1748, 1802–1822, 1825–1835, 1861–1926 and 1927–1992. It was demonstrated that the correlations between ringwidths and mid-summer (July) temperatures did not vary significantly as a function of time. Early(June) and late-summer (August) mean temperatures were secondary in relation to mid-summer temperatures in controlling the radial growth. Early-summer temperatures governed pine radial growth most clearly during the 19^th century, whereas late-summer temperatures had strongest influence an ring-widths during the 18^th century and later part of the 20^th century. There was no clear signature of temporally reduced sensitivity of Scots pine ring-widths to mid-summer temperatures over the periods of early meteorological observations. Subfossil pine chronology, constructed using pines recovered from small Jakes along the forest-limit zone, showed a consistent pattern of response to summer-temperatures in relation to living-tree chronologies.     

Climate–growth analysis of Qilian juniper across an altitudinal gradient in the central Qilian Mountains, northwest China

In the context of global warming, it is of high importance to assess the influence of climatic change and geographic factors on the radial growth of high-elevation trees. Using tree-ring data collected from four stands of Qilian juniper (Juniperus przewalskii Kom.) across an altitudinal gradient in the central Qilian Mountains, northwest China, we compared the radial growth characteristics and climate–growth relationships at different elevations. Results indicated that there was little difference in the tree-ring parameters of the four chronologies. Correlation analyses both for unfiltered and 10-year high-passed data of monthly climatic variables and chronologies were presented to investigate the climatic forcing on tree growth, and results revealed that the correlation patterns were consistent among the four sites, especially for high-passed data. We employed the principal components analysis method to obtain the first principal component (PC1) of the four chronologies and computed the correlations between PC1 and climate factors. The PC1 correlated significantly with winter (November–January) temperature, prior August and current May temperature, and precipitation in the previous September and current January and April, indicating that tree growth in this region was mainly limited by cold winter temperature and drought in early growing season and prior growing season (prior August and September). However, the climate–growth relationships were unstable; with an increase in temperature, the sensitivity of tree growth to temperature had decreased over the past few decades. Considering the instability of the climate–growth relationships, climate reconstructions based on tree rings in the study area should be approached with more caution.     

Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history

Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challenging to estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between climate variability and human history. Here, we compile and analyse updated versions of all the existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere that span the entire Common Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach to reconstruct extra-tropical summer temperatures from 1 to 2010 CE, and calculate uncertainties at continental to hemispheric scales. Peak warming in the 280s, 990s and 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, was comparable to modern conditions until 2010 CE. The lowest June–August temperature anomaly in 536 not only marks the beginning of the coldest decade, but also defines the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman and medieval times roughly coincides with the tendency towards societal prosperity across much of the North Atlantic/European sector and East Asia, major episodes of volcanically-forced summer cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks and political upheavals. Our study reveals a larger amplitude of spatially synchronized summer temperature variation during the first millennium of the Common Era than previously recognised.