Effect of climate change in lizards of the genus Xenosaurus (Xenosauridae) based on projected changes in climatic suitability and climatic niche conservatism

Accelerated climate change represents a major threat to the health of the planet's biodiversity. Particularly, lizards of the genus Xenosaurus might be negatively affected by this phenomenon because several of its species have restricted distributions, low vagility, and preference for low temperatures. No study, however, has examined the climatic niche of the species of this genus and how their distribution might be influenced by different climate change scenarios. In this project, we used a maximum entropy approach to model the climatic niche of 10 species of the genus Xenosaurus under present and future suitable habitat, considering a climatic niche conservatism context. Therefore, we performed a similarity analysis of the climatic niche between each species of the genus Xenosaurus. Our results suggest that a substantial decrease in suitable habitat for all species will occur by 2070. Among the most affected species, X. tzacualtipantecus will not have suitable conditions according to its climatic niche requirements and X. phalaroanthereon will lose 85.75% of its current suitable area. On the other hand, we found low values of conservatism of the climatic niche among species. Given the limited capacity of dispersion and the habitat specificity of these lizards, it seems unlikely that fast changes would occur in the distribution of these species facing climate change. The low conservatism in climatic niche we found in Xenosaurus suggests that these species might have the capacity to adapt to the new environmental conditions originated by climate change.     

Where and why? Bees,snail shells and climate: Distribution of Rhodanthidium (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) in the Iberian Peninsula

Species distribution patterns are widely studied through species distribution models (SDMs), focusing mostly on climatic variables. Joint species distribution models (JSDMs) allow inferring if other factors (biotic interactions, shared phylogenetic history or other unmeasured variables) can also have an influence on species distribution. We identified current distributional areas and optimal suitability areas of three species of the solitary snail‐shell bee Rhodanthidium (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), and their host gastropod species in the Iberian Peninsula. We undertook SDMs using Maxent software, based on presence points and climatic variables. We also undertook JSDMs for the bees and the snails to infer if co‐occurrence could be a result of biotic interactions. We found that the three bee species: (1) use at least five different species of Mediterranean snails; (2) use empty shells not only for nesting but also for sheltering when there is adverse weather and during the night; (3) have their most suitable areas in the eastern and southern Iberian Peninsula, mostly on limestone areas; and (4) have their optimal range under Mediterranean climatic values for the studied variables. There is positive co‐occurrence of Rhodanthidium with the gastropod species, especially with the snail Sphincterochila candidissima. The contribution of the environmental component to the co‐occurrence is less than that of the residual component in those cases, suggesting that: (i) the use of biotic resources (between Rhodanthidium and the gastropod species); (ii) shared phylogenetic history (between R. septemdentatum and R. sticticum); or (iii) unmeasured variables are largely responsible for co‐occurrence.     

Niche Conservatism and Future Changes in the Potential Area Coverage of Arundina graminifolia,an Invasive Orchid Species from Southeast Asia

The Asian orchid, Arundina graminifolia, has been introduced to many locations over the last 50 yr, predominantly in South and Central America. A list of localities of A. graminifolia was compiled and used to model potential climatic niches based on the maximum entropy method. The differences are presented between niches occupied by native and invasive populations of A. graminifolia, and possible changes in the potential range of the species are discussed on the basis of various climate change scenarios. The coverage of habitats suitable for A. graminifolia will be reduced under future climate changes scenarios. The created niche distribution models indicated a more significant reduction in the potential ecological niches of the studied species in its invasive range. Nevertheless, areas with potentially suitable bioclimatic conditions for A. graminifolia should be monitored to prevent future uncontrolled invasion of the orchid into new habitats and to study its impact on the local ecosystems, as vast areas of its potential niche in the Americas are still unoccupied.     

基于MaxEnt模型预测中国兰属植物的分布格局及主导气候因子(附表)

兰属(Cymbidium)中，除了兔耳兰C.lancifolium以外的所有种均被列为国家重点保护野生植物。为探究其在未来气候条件下的潜在分布格局，该研究基于兰属植物已知的分布点和19个气候因子，利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)模拟兰属以及其中20种兰属植物在9种不同气候情景(当代以及未来2030s、2050s、2070s和2090s 4个时间段各两种温室气体排放情景)下的潜在分布格局。结果表明：(1)最干旱季降水量(Bio17)、年降水量(Bio12)和温度季节性变化(Bio4)是影响兰属植物地理分布格局的主导气候因子。(2)不同兰属植物在未来情景下的适生区表现出不同的变化趋势，并且影响其分布的主导气候因子也有所不同。其中，冬凤兰(C.dayanum)等8个物种的适生区面积整体呈扩张趋势，而西藏虎头兰(C.tracyanum)等12个物种的适生区面积整体则呈缩减趋势。该研究结果为兰属植物就地保护与迁地保护提供了重要参考，对兰属等濒危野生植物的保护具有积极意义。     

Projected changes in climatic suitability for Kinosternon turtles by 2050 and 2070

Chelonians are expected to be negatively impacted by climate change due to limited vagility and temperature‐dependent sex determination. However, few studies have examined how freshwater turtle distributions may shift under different climate change scenarios. We used a maximum entropy approach to model the distribution of five widespread North American Kinosternon species (K. baurii, K. flavescens, K. hirtipes, K. sonoriense, and K. subrubrum) under four climate change scenarios. We found that areas with suitable climatic conditions for K. baurii and K. hirtipes are expected to decline substantially during the 21st century. In contrast, the area with suitable climate for K. sonoriense will remain essentially unchanged, while areas suitable for K. flavescens and K. subrubrum are expected to substantially increase. The centroid for the distribution of four of the five species shifted northward, while the centroid for K. sonoriense shifted slightly southward. Overall, centroids shifted at a median rate of 37.5 km per decade across all scenarios. Given the limited dispersal ability of turtles, it appears unlikely that range shifts will occur rapidly enough to keep pace with climate change during the 21st century. The ability of chelonians to modify behavioral and physiological responses in response to unfavorable conditions may allow turtles to persist for a time in areas that have become increasingly unsuitable, but this plasticity will likely only delay local extinctions.     

Range expansion of the Asian native giant resin bee Megachile sculpturalis (Hymenoptera,Apoidea, Megachilidae) in France

In 2008, a new species for the French bee fauna was recorded in Allauch near Marseille: the giant resin bee, Megachile sculpturalis (Smith, 1853). This was the first European record of this species that is native to East Asia. To our knowledge, it is the first introduced bee species in Europe. Here, we provide an overview of the current distribution of M. sculpturalis in France and we describe the history of its range expansion. Besides our own observations, information was compiled from literature and Internet websites, and by contacting naturalist networks. We collected a total of 117 records (locality × year combinations) for the 2008–2016 period. The geographical range of M. sculpturalis has extended remarkably, now occupying a third of continental France, with the most northern and western records located 335 and 520 km from Allauch, respectively. Information on its phenology, feeding, and nesting behavior is also provided. We report several events of nest occupation or eviction of Osmia sp. and Xylocopa sp. individuals by M. sculpturalis. Our results show that M. sculpturalis is now well established in France. Given its capacity to adapt and rapidly expand its range, we recommend amplifying the monitoring of this species to better anticipate the changes in its geographical range and its potential impacts on native bees.     

Ecological niche modeling for conservation planning of an endemic snail in the verge of becoming a pest in cardamom plantations in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot

Conservation managers and policy makers are often confronted with a challenging dilemma of devising suitable strategies to maintain agricultural productivity while conserving endemic species that at the early stages of becoming pests of agricultural crops. Identification of environmental factors conducive to species range expansion for forecasting species distribution patterns will play a central role in devising management strategies to minimize the conflict between the agricultural productivity and biodiversity conservation. Here, we present results of a study that predicts the distribution of Indrella ampulla, a snail endemic to the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot, which is becoming a pest in cardamom (Ellettaria cardamomum) plantations. We determined the distribution patterns and niche overlap between I. ampulla and Ellettaria cardamomum using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche modeling techniques under current and future (2020–2080) climatic scenarios. The results showed that climatic (precipitation of coldest quarter and isothermality) and soil (cation exchange capacity of soil [CEC]) parameters are major factors that determine the distribution of I. ampulla in Western Ghats. The model predicted cardamom cultivation areas in southern Western Ghats are highly sensitive to invasion of I. ampulla under both present and future climatic conditions. While the land area in the central Western Ghats is predicted to become unsuitable for I. ampulla and Ellettaria cardamomum in future, we found 71% of the Western Ghats land area is suitable for Ellettaria cardamomum cultivation and 45% suitable for I. ampulla, with an overlap of 35% between two species. The resulting distribution maps are invaluable for policy makers and conservation managers to design and implement management strategies minimizing the conflicts to sustain agricultural productivity while maintaining biodiversity in the region.     

Current and future habitat availability for Thick‐billed and Maroon‐fronted parrots in northern Mexican forests

Thick‐billed Parrots (Rhynchopsitta pachyrhyncha) and Maroon‐fronted Parrots (Rhynchopsitta terrisi) are the only parrots in Mexico found in high‐elevation coniferous forests. Both species are critically endangered due to logging, and climate change is expected to further reduce their available habitat. Our objectives were to assess the present and future availability of a suitable habitat for these parrots using ecological niche models. Future climatic scenarios were estimated by overlaying the present distributions of these parrots on maps of projected biome distributions generated using a North American vegetation model. Our climatic scenarios revealed that the distribution of key habitats for both parrots will likely be affected as the climate becomes more suitable for xeric biomes. The climate associated with coniferous forests in the current range of Maroon‐fronted Parrots is predicted to disappear by 2090, and the climate associated with the key coniferous habitats of Thick‐billed Parrots may contract. However, our results also indicate that suitable climatic conditions will prevail for the high‐elevation coniferous biomes where Thick‐billed Parrots nest. The degree to which both species of parrots will be able to adapt to the new scenarios is uncertain. Some of their life history traits may allow them to respond with a combination of adaptive and spatial responses to climatic change and, in addition, suitable climatic conditions will prevail in some portions of their ranges. Actions needed to ensure the conservation of these parrots include strict control of logging and integration of rapid response teams for fire management within the potential foraging ranges of nesting pairs. A landscape with a greater proportion of restored forests would also aid in the recovery of current populations of Thick‐billed and Maroon‐fronted parrots and facilitate their responses to climate change.     

Impacts of climate change on the global potential distribution of two notorious invasive crayfishes

1. Invasive alien species and climate change are two of the most serious global environmental threats. In particular, it is of great interest to understand how changing climates could impact the distribution of invaders that pose serious threats to ecosystems and human activities.
2. In this study, we developed ensemble species distribution models for predicting the current and future global distribution of the signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus and the red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii, two of the most highly problematic invaders of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. We collected occurrence records of the species, from native and alien established ranges worldwide. These records in combination with averaged observations of current climatic conditions were used to calibrate a set of 10 distinct correlative models for estimating the climatic niche of each species. We next projected the estimated niches into the geographical space for the current climate conditions and for the 2050s and 2070s under representative concentration pathway 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios.
3. Our species distribution models had high predictive abilities and suggest that annual mean temperature is the main driver of the distribution of both species. Model predictions indicated that the two crayfish species have not fully occupied their suitable climates and will respond differently to future climate scenarios in different geographic regions. Suitable climate for P. leniusculus was predicted to shift poleward and to increase in extent in North America and Europe but decrease in Asia. Regions with suitable climate for P. clarkii are predicted to widen in Europe but contract in North America and Asia.
4. This study highlights that invasive species with different thermal preference are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. Our results provide important information for policy makers to design and implement anticipated measures for the prevention and control of these two problematic species.

     

Will climate change impact the potential distribution of a native vine (Merremia peltata) which is behaving invasively in the Pacific region?

Merremia peltata is a species with uncertain status in the island nations of the Pacific region. It has been designated introduced and invasive in some countries whereas it is considered native in others. Recent increase in its abundance across some island landscapes have led to calls for its designation as an invasive species of environmental concern with biological control being suggested as a control strategy. Climate change will add to the complications of managing this species since changes in climate will influence its range limits. In this study, we develop a process‐oriented niche model of M. peltata using CLIMEX to investigate the impacts of climate change on its potential distribution. Information on the climatic requirements of M. peltata and its current geographic distribution were used to calibrate the model. The results indicate that under current climate, 273,132 km² of the land area in the region is climatically unsuitable or marginal for M. peltata whereas 664,524 km² is suitable to highly suitable. Under current climate, areas of climatic suitability for M. peltata were identified on the archipelagos of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. By the end of the century, some archipelagos like Fiji, Hawaii, New Caledonia and Vanuatu will probably become more suitable while PNG and Solomon Islands become less suitable for M. peltata. The results can be used to inform biosecurity planning, management and conservation strategies on islands.     

Generalized host‐plant feeding can hide sterol‐specialized foraging behaviors in bee–plant interactions

Host‐plant selection is a key factor driving the ecology and evolution of insects. While the majority of phytophagous insects is highly host specific, generalist behavior is quite widespread among bees and presumably involves physiological adaptations that remain largely unexplored. However, floral visitation patterns suggest that generalist bees do not forage randomly on all available resources. While resource availability and accessibility as well as nectar composition have been widely explored, pollen chemistry could also have an impact on the range of suitable host‐plants. This study focuses on particular pollen nutrients that cannot be synthesized de novo by insects but are key compounds of cell membranes and the precursor for molting process: the sterols. We compared the sterol composition of pollen from the main host‐plants of three generalist bees: Anthophora plumipes, Colletes cunicularius, and Osmia cornuta, as well as one specialist bee Andrena vaga. We also analyzed the sterols of their brood cell provisions, the tissues of larvae and nonemerged females to determine which sterols are used by the different species. Our results show that sterols are not used accordingly to foraging strategy: Both the specialist species A. vaga and the generalist species C. cunicularius might metabolize a rare C₂₇ sterol, while the two generalist species A. plumipes and O. cornuta might rather use a very common C₂₈ sterol. Our results suggest that shared sterolic compounds among plant species could facilitate the exploitation of multiple host‐plants by A. plumipes and O. cornuta whereas the generalist C. cunicularius might be more constrained due to its physiological requirements of a more uncommon dietary sterol. Our findings suggest that a bee displaying a generalist foraging behavior may sometimes hide a sterol‐specialized species. This evidence challenges the hypothesis that all generalist free‐living bee species are all able to develop on a wide range of different pollen types.     

Reconstructing the demise of Tethyan plants: climate‐driven range dynamics of Laurus since the Pliocene

Aim Climate changes are thought to be responsible for the retreat and eventual extinction of subtropical lauroid species that covered much of Europe and North Africa during the Palaeogene and early Neogene; little is known, however, of the spatial and temporal patterns of this demise. Herein we calibrate ecological niche models to assess the climatic requirements of Laurus L. (Lauraceae), an emblematic relic from the Tethyan subtropical flora, subsequently using these models to infer how the range dynamics of Laurus were affected by Plio‐Pleistocene climate changes. We also provide predictions of likely range changes resulting from future climatic scenarios. Location The Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands (Canaries, Madeira, Azores). Methods We used a maximum‐entropy algorithm (Maxent) to model the relationship between climate and Laurus distribution over time. The models were fitted both to the present and to the middle Pliocene, based on fossil records. We employed climatic reconstructions for the mid‐Pliocene (3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and a CO₂‐doubling future scenario to project putative species distribution in each period. We validated the model projections with Laurus fossil and present occurrences. Results Laurus preferentially occupied warm and moist areas with low seasonality, showing a marked stasis of its climatic niche. Models fitted to Pliocene conditions successfully predicted the current species distribution. Large suitable areas existed during the Pliocene, which were strongly reduced during the Pleistocene, but humid refugia within the Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands enabled long‐term persistence. Future climate conditions are likely to re‐open areas suitable for colonization north of the current range. Main conclusions The climatic requirements of Laurus remained virtually unchanged over the last 3 Myr. This marked niche conservatism imposed largely deterministic range dynamics driven by climate conditions. This species's relatively high drought tolerance might account for the survival of Laurus in continental Europe throughout the Quaternary whilst other Lauraceae became extinct. Climatic scenarios for the end of this century would favour an expansion of the species's range towards northern latitudes, while severely limiting southern populations due to increased water stress.     

Predicting the distributions of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana tree species under current and future climate change scenarios in Ethiopia

Distributions of potential ranges of plant species are not yet fully known in Ethiopia where high climatic variability and vegetation types are found. This study was undertaken to predict distributions of suitable habitats of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana under current and two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2050 and 2070) in Ethiopia. Eleven environmental variables with less correlation coefficients (r < 0.7) were used to make the prediction. Shifting in extents of habitat suitability and effects of elevation, solar radiation and topographic position in relation to the current and future climatic scenarios were statistically analysed using independent t-test and linear model. We found decreasing area of highly suitable habitat from 0.51% to 0.46%, 0.36% and 0.33%, 0.24% for Prunus africana and 1.13% to 1.02%, 0.77% and 0.76%, 0.60% for Pouteria adolfi-friederici, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 by 2050 and 2070 respectively. Moist and dry afromontane forests are identified as the most suitable habitat for both species. Overall, our results suggest that climate change can promote dynamic suitable habitat niches under different future climate scenarios. Therefore, biodiversity conservation strategies should take into account habitat suitability dynamics issues and identify where to conserve species before implementing conservation practices.     

Brood development and nest parasitism of Xylocopa (Neoxylocopa) augusti Lepeletier (Hymenoptera: Apidae), a promising crop pollinator in Argentina

Pollination of passion fruit and other crops by species of carpenter bees of the genus Xylocopa Latreille significantly increases both the quality and the quantity of fruits. To enhance pollination services, bee nests are either introduced into the crop area or females are encouraged to nest using trap nests. Thus, knowledge of trap-nest preference, brood development and nest parasitism is essential for effective and sustainable nest management practices. Xylocopa (Neoxylocopa) augusti Lepeletier is a promising pollinator in some areas of Argentina because of its high abundance, ability to buzz-pollinate and easy acceptance of trap nests. However, limited information is available on the biology of this pollinator. Herein, we provide detailed information on its nesting cycle, brood development and parasitism from trap nests at an urban area in Buenos Aires province, Argentina. Our study indicates that X. augusti is a solitary and likely univoltine species that shares some nesting and developmental features with other species in the subgenus Neoxylocopa, which might facilitate the adoption of existing management techniques developed for other species and regions. Biological information on Physocephala wulpi Camras (Diptera: Conopidae), a parasitoid of X. augusti, is also given for the first time.     

Integrating climate and landscape models to prioritize areas and conservation strategies for an endangered arboreal primate

Species distributions are influenced by both climate conditions and landscape structure. Here we propose an integrated analysis of climatic and landscape niche-based models for a forest-dependent primate, the endangered black lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysopygus). We applied both climate and landscape variables to predict the distribution of this tamarin and used this information to prioritize strategic areas more accurately. We anticipated that this approach would be beneficial for the selection of pertinent conservation strategies for this flagship species. First, we built climate and landscape niche-based models separately, combining seven algorithms, to infer processes acting on the species distribution at different scales. Subsequently, we combined climate and landscape models using the EcoLand Analysis. Our results suggest that historic and current landscape fragmentation and modification had profoundly adverse effects on the distribution of the black lion tamarins. The models indicated just 2096 km² (out of an original distribution of 92,239 km²) of suitable areas for both climate and landscape. Of this suitable area, the species is currently present in less than 40%, which represents less than 1% of its original distribution. Based on the combined map, we determined the western and southeast regions of the species range to be priority areas for its conservation. We identified areas with high climatic and high landscape suitability, which overlap with the remaining forest fragments in both regions, for habitat conservation and population management. We suggest that areas with high climatic but low landscape suitability should be prioritized for habitat management and restoration. Areas with high landscape suitability and low climatic suitability, such as the Paranapiacaba mountain range should be considered in light of projected climate change scenarios. Our case study illustrates that a combined approach of climatic and landscape niche-based modeling can be useful for establishing focused conservation measures that may increase the likelihood of success.     

Mutualism influences species distribution predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding anuran under climate change

Ecological niche models, or species distribution models, have been widely used to identify potentially suitable areas for species in future climate change scenarios. However, there are inherent errors to these models due to their inability to evaluate species occurrence influenced by non‐climatic factors. With the intuit to improve the modelling predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding treefrog (Phyllodytes melanomystax, Hylidae), we investigate how the climatic suitability of bromeliads influences the distribution model for the treefrog in the context of baseline and 2050 climate change scenarios. We used point occurrence data on the frog and the bromeliad (Vriesea procera, Bromeliaceae) to generate their predicted distributions based on baseline and 2050 climates. Using a consensus of five algorithms, we compared the accuracy of the models and the geographic predictions for the frog generated from two modelling procedures: (i) a climate‐only model for P. melanomystax and V. procera; and (ii) a climate‐biotic model for P. melanomystax, in which the climatic suitability of the bromeliad was jointly considered with the climatic variables. Both modelling approaches generated strong and similar predictive power for P. melanomystax, yet climate‐biotic modelling generated more concise predictions, particularly for the year 2050. Specifically, because the predicted area of the bromeliad overlaps with the predictions for the treefrog in the baseline climate, both modelling approaches produce reasonable similar predicted areas for the anuran. Alternatively, due to the predicted loss of northern climatically suitable areas for the bromeliad by 2050, only the climate‐biotic models provide evidence that northern populations of P. melanomystax will likely be negatively affected by 2050.     

Nest preference and ecology of cavity-nesting bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) in Punjab,Pakistan

Among bees, 85 % are solitary species, most of them are ground-nester and some are cavity-nesting and construct their nests in pre-existing cavities. This work was conducted to evaluate the substrate preference and nest architecture (acceptance, occupation percentage, seasonality and parasitism) of cavity-nesting bees in different substrates. Trap nests offered comprised five different materials (drilled cavities in wood, bamboo, cardboard tubes, plastic soda straws, and mud blocks). These were installed in four districts for two years. The nesting cavities of five different diameters (6, 8, 10, 12 and 14 mm) were provided in each nesting material with an average length of 180 ± 9.92 mm. In all the materials, 5400 nesting cavities were offered, out of which 628 were colonized by bees from two families (Megachilidae and Apidae) and six species (Megachile cephalotes, M. lanata, M. bicolor, Xylocopa basalis, X. fenestrata and Ceratina smaragdula), including one parasitic bee (Euaspis carbonaria). The bee species differed significantly in occupying five nesting materials. The most preferred diameters were 8 mm and 10 mm, with 52.20% and 29.45% of colonization, respectively. Nesting was done throughout the year except in winter. This study will serve as a baseline for future studies and conservation programs of cavity-nesting bees in Pakistan.     

Global warming promotes biological invasion of a honey bee pest

Climate change and biological invasions are two major global environmental challenges. Both may interact, e.g. via altered impact and distribution of invasive alien species. Even though invasive species play a key role for compromising the health of honey bees, the impact of climate change on the severity of such species is still unknown. The small hive beetle (SHB, Aethina tumida, Murray) is a parasite of honey bee colonies. It is endemic to sub‐Saharan Africa and has established populations on all continents except Antarctica. Since SHBs pupate in soil, pupation performance is governed foremost by two abiotic factors, soil temperature and moisture, which will be affected by climate change. Here, we investigated SHB invasion risk globally under current and future climate scenarios. We modelled survival and development time during pupation (=pupal performance) in response to soil temperature and soil moisture using published and novel experimental data. Presence data on SHB distribution were used for model validation. We then linked the model with global soil data in order to classify areas (resolution: 10 arcmin; i.e. 18.6 km at the equator) as unsuitable, marginal and suitable for SHB pupation performance. Under the current climate, the results show that many areas globally yet uninvaded are actually suitable, suggesting considerable SHB invasion risk. Future scenarios of global warming project a vehement increase in climatic suitability for SHB and corresponding potential for invasion, especially in the temperate regions of the Northern hemisphere, thereby creating demand for enhanced and adapted mitigation and management. Our analysis shows, for the first time, effects of global warming on a honey bee pest and will help areas at risk to prepare adequately. In conclusion, this is a clear case for global warming promoting biological invasion of a pest species with severe potential to harm important pollinator species globally.     

Xylosandrus germanus in Central Europe: Spread into and within the Czech Republic

Invasive organisms represent great threats to ecosystems and great challenges to forest management. In Europe, the black timber bark beetle (Xylosandrus germanus) is an invasive secondary pest that mostly attacks the logs of felled trees. We showed the invasion history for Europe and using many local surveys, we summarize the current distribution and other available information on X. germanus in the Czech Republic. We report that this species is distributed from the lowlands to the mountains in the Czech Republic; it is widespread in the eastern half of the country, where it is more abundant in the warmer south and southeast areas than in the cooler areas. Most (78%) of the known localities are at elevation below 400 m a.s.l. Although an ice storm greatly increased X. germanus abundance near the border with Austria, its high abundance did not result in damage to standing trees. Presence of X. germanus in the Czech Republic for over 10 years has not led to heavy tree infestation.     

Topo‐climatic microrefugia explain the persistence of a rare endemic plant in the Alps during the last 21 millennia

Ongoing rapid climate change is predicted to cause local extinction of plant species in mountain regions. However, some plant species could have persisted during Quaternary climate oscillations without shifting their range, despite the limited evidence from fossils. Here, we tested two candidate mechanisms of persistence by comparing the macrorefugia and microrefugia (MR) hypotheses. We used the rare and endemic Saxifraga florulenta as a model taxon and combined ensembles of species distribution models (SDMs) with a high‐resolution paleoclimatic and topographic dataset to reconstruct its potential current and past distribution since the last glacial maximum. To test the macrorefugia hypothesis, we verified whether the species could have persisted in or shifted to geographic areas defined by its realized niche. We then identified potential MR based on climatic and topographic properties of the landscape and applied refined scenarios of MR dynamics and functions over time. Last, we quantified the number of known occurrences that could be explained by either the macrorefugia or MR model. A consensus of two or three SDM techniques predicted absence between 14–10, 3–4 and 1 ka bp , which did not support the macrorefugia model. In contrast, we showed that S. florulenta could have contracted into MR during periods of absence predicted by the SDMs and later re‐colonized suitable areas according to the macrorefugia model. Assuming a limited and realistic seed dispersal distance for our species, we explained a large number of the current occurrences (61–96%). Additionally, we showed that MR could have facilitated range expansions or shifts of S. florulenta. Finally, we found that the most recent and the most stable MR were the ones closest to current occurrences. Hence, we propose a novel paradigm to explain plant persistence by highlighting the importance of supporting functions of MR when forecasting the fate of plant species under climate change.