基于MaxEnt模型预测中国兰属植物的分布格局及主导气候因子(附表)

兰属(Cymbidium)中，除了兔耳兰C.lancifolium以外的所有种均被列为国家重点保护野生植物。为探究其在未来气候条件下的潜在分布格局，该研究基于兰属植物已知的分布点和19个气候因子，利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)模拟兰属以及其中20种兰属植物在9种不同气候情景(当代以及未来2030s、2050s、2070s和2090s 4个时间段各两种温室气体排放情景)下的潜在分布格局。结果表明：(1)最干旱季降水量(Bio17)、年降水量(Bio12)和温度季节性变化(Bio4)是影响兰属植物地理分布格局的主导气候因子。(2)不同兰属植物在未来情景下的适生区表现出不同的变化趋势，并且影响其分布的主导气候因子也有所不同。其中，冬凤兰(C.dayanum)等8个物种的适生区面积整体呈扩张趋势，而西藏虎头兰(C.tracyanum)等12个物种的适生区面积整体则呈缩减趋势。该研究结果为兰属植物就地保护与迁地保护提供了重要参考，对兰属等濒危野生植物的保护具有积极意义。

Prediction of distribution patterns and dominantclimatic factors of Cymbidium in China using MaxEnt model

Except for Cymbidium lancifolium, all the other species of Cymbidium have been listed as the national key protected wild plants. In order to explore its future distribution patterns under the future climatic, we gathered the distribution information of Cymbidium and 19 climatic factors, and used the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)Model and Geographic Information System(ArcGIS)to predict the future distribution patterns of Cymbidium in China. The future potential distribution patterns of 20 Cymbidium species were predicted under nine different climatic scenarios, including the current climatic and eight future climatic scenarios(two kinds of greenhouse gas emissions for 2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s). The results were as follows:(1)The precipitation of the driest quarter(Bio17), annual precipitation(Bio12)and temperature seasonality(Bio4)were the dominant climatic factors affecting the future distribution of Cymbidium.(2)The suitable areas of different Cymbidium species had different change trends in the future scenarios, and the dominant climatic factors affecting them were also different. The suitable habitat area of eight Cymbidium species such as C. dayanum gradually increased, while the suitable habitat area of 12 Cymbidium species such as C. tracyanum decreased as a whole. In conclusion, the results provide an important reference for in-situ and ex-situ conservations of Cymbidium, and have positive significance to the conservation of Cymbidium and other endangered wild plants.