气孔导度模型在北方农牧交错带的适用性评价——以马铃薯和油葵为例

基于北方农牧交错带主要作物马铃薯和油葵的叶片气孔导度、净光合速率和气象因子的平行观测数据,对常用气孔导度模型(Jarvis模型、Ball-Berry模型、Leuning模型和Medlyn模型)进行了适用性评价.结果表明:马铃薯的气孔导度与净光合速率呈现较强的线性关系,而油葵气孔导度与净光合速率的线性关系较弱.对于马铃薯气孔导度,Ball-Berry模型模拟效果最佳,Leuning模型和Medlyn模型次之,Jarvis模型模拟效果最差;各模型的模拟值与观测值的均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.0331、0.0371、0.0456和0.0794 mol·m^-2·s^-1,归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)分别为26.8%、30.0%、36.9%和64.3%,拟合度(R²)分别为0.96、0.61、0.91和0.88.对于油葵的气孔导度,Jarvis模型模拟效果略好于Ball-Berry模型、Medlyn模型和Leuning模型,其RMSE分别为0.2221、0.2534、0.2547和0.2758 mol·m^-2·s^-1,NRMSE分别为40.3%、46.0%、46.2%和50.1%,R²分别为0.38、0.22、0.23和0.20.气象因子对气孔导度作用的通径分析表明,北方农牧交错带马铃薯和油葵气孔导度日变化主要受饱和水汽压差影响.模型评价结果表明用于油葵的气孔导度模型需要进一步改进.     

Butler-Volmer-Monod model for describing bio-anode polarization curves

A kinetic model of the bio-anode was developed based on a simple representation of the underlying biochemical conversions as described by enzyme kinetics, and electron transfer reactions as described by the Butler-Volmer electron transfer kinetics. This Butler-Volmer-Monod model was well able to describe the measured bio-anode polarization curves. The Butler-Volmer-Monod model was compared to the Nernst-Monod model described the experimental data significantly better. The Butler-Volmer-Monod model has the Nernst-Monod model as its full electrochemically reversible limit. Contrary to the Nernst-Monod model, the Butler-Volmer-Monod model predicts zero current at equilibrium potential. Besides, the Butler-Volmer-Monod model predicts that the apparent Monod constant is dependent on anode potential, which was supported by experimental results.     

熟鸡肉中金黄色葡萄球菌生长预测模型的建立

【目的】研究不同浓度和不同温度条件下金黄色葡萄球菌接种在熟鸡肉中的生长情况,比较3种常见预测模型拟合的准确性,选择最适合的预测模型建立一级和二级模型,为进一步探讨建立三级模型提供数据基础。【方法】测定浓度为102、103和104 CFU/g的金黄色葡萄球菌接种在15-36°C熟鸡肉中的生长数据,使用Matlab软件分别建立修正的Gompertz、Logistic和Baranyi模型,通过比较残差和拟合度(RSS、AIC、RSE)选择最优模型,并且拟合出生长参数(迟滞期、最大比生长速率和最大细胞密度),在此基础上通过响应面方程建立二级模型。最后对模型的可靠性进行了内部和外部实验验证。【结果】36°C和29°C条件下,修正的Gompertz模型最适合;22°C和15°C条件下,最适合模型按接种浓度依次为修正的Gompertz、Logistic和Baranyi模型,综合考虑,最优模型选择修正的Gompertz模型。通过计算预测标准差(%SEP)、平方根误差(RMSE)、准确性因子(Af)和偏差因子(Bf)对建立的二级模型进行数学检验,检验结果均在可接受范围内。【结论】用修正的Gompertz方程和响应面方程建立的一、二级预测模型可以为建立三级模型提供有效、精确的基础。     

An approximate multitrait model for genetic evaluation in dairy cattle with a robust estimation of genetic trends (Open Access publication)

In a stochastic simulation study of a dairy cattle population three multitrait models for estimation of genetic parameters and prediction of breeding values were compared. The first model was an approximate multitrait model using a two-step procedure. The first step was a single trait model for all traits. The solutions for fixed effects from these analyses were subtracted from the phenotypes. A multitrait model only containing an overall mean, an additive genetic and a residual term was applied on these preadjusted data. The second model was similar to the first model, but the multitrait model also contained a year effect. The third model was a full multitrait model. Genetic trends for total merit and for the individual traits in the breeding goal were compared for the three scenarios to rank the models. The full multitrait model gave the highest genetic response, but was not significantly better than the approximate multitrait model including a year effect. The inclusion of a year effect into the second step of the approximate multitrait model significantly improved the genetic trend for total merit. In this study, estimation of genetic parameters for breeding value estimation using models corresponding to the ones used for prediction of breeding values increased the accuracy on the breeding values and thereby the genetic progress.     

鲜切生菜中沙门氏菌二级生长预测模型的建立

以鲜切生菜为研究对象,比较了修正的Gompertz、Gompertz、Logistic和MMF 4种一级模型对不同温度下鲜切生菜中沙门氏菌生长曲线的拟合情况,发现在36℃、20℃和10℃时,修正的Gompertz模型均为最佳的拟合模型,4℃时沙门氏菌生长受到抑制,对失活/存活曲线进行"镜像化"处理后发现拟合程度相对较低,相关系数为0.962 7,故未用于二级模型中;采用其他温度下的修正的Gompertz模型中的最大比生长速率作为二级模型的响应值,建立平方根二级模型;准确因子和偏差因子对二级模型的准确性验证结果表明,两者均接近1.0,说明所建立的二级模型用于预测鲜切生菜中沙门氏菌生长情况。本研究为鲜切生菜的微生物安全控制提供科学依据。     

Genetic variation in a heterogeneous environment. V. Spatial heterogeneity in finite populations

The spatial model of Levene (1953) was examined in a finite population and compared to a temporal model. The spatial model was much more effective in retaining genetic variation in a finite population. Furthermore, the haploid spatial model was more effective in retaining genetic variation than the analogous diploid absolute dominance model. This is the opposite from that found for the temporal model, where the diploid model was more effective than the haploid. Here is an example where diploidy (sexual reproduction) may be disadvantageous. A model that permitted both spatial and temporal variation to act in concert gave retention of genetic variation in situations where either spatial or temporal variation, separately, did not. The relationship between the amount of heterozygosity and the retardation factor was discussed. An example of how spatial or temporal variation affects the proportion of populations fixed after a certain number of generations was given. It seems that these models have biological analogues, several examples of which are mentioned.     

基于本体的农作物种质资源平台用户模型研究

针对国家农作物种质资源平台的特点,提出了基于本体的分组分层动态用户模型构建方法。首先建立用户结点,由用户注册信息结合领域本体构建初步的分组用户模型;然后挖掘用户日志扩展、定期更新用户模型;最后利用通用本体WordNet进行同义词、不同语种的语义扩展,进一步优化用户模型。利用开源软件protégé构建了农作物种质资源核心本体,添加个人信息映射构成用户模型,计算用户对资源的兴趣度,并增加了时间因素来表明用户的兴趣随时间发生变化的情况,便于用户模型的动态更新。基于本体的分组分层动态用户模型可以给不同用户提供个性化服务,有利于提高平台的服务质量。     

The use of three-dimensional model construction of virtual technology in orthopedic treatment

ObjectiveThe objective of this study is to explore the construction of a digital three-dimensional model of virtual technology that plays an auxiliary role in orthopedic treatment.MethodsThree fracture patients were selected, with no abnormality was observed in bone examination, no musculoskeletal disease in the past; and spiral CT scan of the spine and pelvis, upper limbs, and lower limbs was performed. The virtual technology was used to build a digital 3D model, mainly using the editing software Mimics10.0 software. In addition, the virtual three-dimensional model was verified by virtual surgery, data storage security, work efficiency of the model, model validity, three-dimensional characteristics of the model, the interaction mode of the model, and the data accuracy of the model were studied.ResultsThe digital 3D model was successfully established by Mimics10.0 software. The data fitting efficiency was very high. The data storage security of the 3D model was greatly improved compared with the 2D model, and the work efficiency was improved by at least 50%. There was also a significant change in the accuracy and interaction of data acquisition. Therefore, the detection of digital 3D model work through virtual surgery simulation fully demonstrated the positive auxiliary role of 3D model in orthopedic treatment.ConclusionThe digital 3D model based on Mimics10.0 software is efficient and accurate in obtaining data. It is very effective for subsequent adjuvant therapy in the field of orthopedics, reducing the probability of misdiagnosis by doctors, saving time and improving efficiency, reducing patient's physical pain and unnecessary economic expenses.     

基于Penman-Monteith模型的两个蒸散模型在夏玉米农田的参数修正及性能评价

利用涡度相关系统和小气象系统对2013—2015年夏玉米生长季的蒸散量和气象数据进行实时观测,基于观测数据对以Penman-Monteith模型为基础的FAO-PM模型和KP-PM模型进行分析:首先利用2013和2014年数据对两个模型中的关键参数进行校正,其次利用两个模型对2015年夏玉米农田的日蒸散量进行计算,并与测量值对比,说明两个模型在夏玉米农田的适用性;最后采用分阶段法对KP-PM模型中的经验系数进行修正.结果表明: FAO-PM模型对2015年夏玉米农田日蒸散量的计算值更加接近测量值;利用分阶段法对KP-PM模型进行修正后,模型对日蒸散量的计算效果有了很大提高,且计算值比FAO-PM模型更接近测量值.模型中关键系数与气象条件之间有很大关系,因此利用模型进行蒸散预测时,必须先对模型进行参数校正.该研究可为其他研究人员利用模型估算蒸散量提供方法上的参考.     

Genomic selection of purebred animals for crossbred performance in the presence of dominant gene action

Background

Genomic selection is an appealing method to select purebreds for crossbred performance. In the case of crossbred records, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) effects can be estimated using an additive model or a breed-specific allele model. In most studies, additive gene action is assumed. However, dominance is the likely genetic basis of heterosis. Advantages of incorporating dominance in genomic selection were investigated in a two-way crossbreeding program for a trait with different magnitudes of dominance. Training was carried out only once in the simulation.

Results

When the dominance variance and heterosis were large and overdominance was present, a dominance model including both additive and dominance SNP effects gave substantially greater cumulative response to selection than the additive model. Extra response was the result of an increase in heterosis but at a cost of reduced purebred performance. When the dominance variance and heterosis were realistic but with overdominance, the advantage of the dominance model decreased but was still significant. When overdominance was absent, the dominance model was slightly favored over the additive model, but the difference in response between the models increased as the number of quantitative trait loci increased. This reveals the importance of exploiting dominance even in the absence of overdominance. When there was no dominance, response to selection for the dominance model was as high as for the additive model, indicating robustness of the dominance model. The breed-specific allele model was inferior to the dominance model in all cases and to the additive model except when the dominance variance and heterosis were large and with overdominance. However, the advantage of the dominance model over the breed-specific allele model may decrease as differences in linkage disequilibrium between the breeds increase. Retraining is expected to reduce the advantage of the dominance model over the alternatives, because in general, the advantage becomes important only after five or six generations post-training.

Conclusion

Under dominance and without retraining, genomic selection based on the dominance model is superior to the additive model and the breed-specific allele model to maximize crossbred performance through purebred selection.     

ELM evaluation model of regional groundwater quality based on the crow search algorithm

According to the multi-parameter evaluation of groundwater quality, an evaluation model of groundwater quality based on the improved Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) was proposed to resolve fuzziness of the water quality evaluation and incompatibility of water parameters. A training sample set and testing sample set were randomly generated according to the classification standards of groundwater quality, then Crow Search Algorithm (CSA) was used to optimize the input weights and thresholds of hidden-layer neurons of the ELM; thus, the CSA-ELM evaluation model of groundwater quality was constructed based on optimization of the ELM by the CSA. Base on the training sample set and testing sample set, the CSA-ELM model was tested. The test results indicate that the evaluating precision and generalization ability of the CSA-ELM model reach a high level and can be used for comprehensive evaluations of groundwater quality. The Jiansanjiang Administration in Heilongjiang Province, China, was used as an example; the groundwater quality of 15 farms in this region was evaluated based on the CSA-ELM model. The groundwater quality in this region was generally good, and the groundwater quality appeared to have spatial distribution characteristics. Compared with the Nemerow Index Method (NIM), the CSA-ELM evaluation model of groundwater quality is more reasonable and can be used for the comprehensive evaluation of groundwater quality. The stability of the NIM, ELM model, back propagation (BP) model and CSA-ELM model was analyzed using the theory of serial number summation and Spearman's correlation coefficient. The stability of the NIM and BP model in groundwater quality evaluation was poor, while the stability of the ELM model and CSA-ELM model was relatively superior. The ranked results of stability are CSA-ELM model > ELM model > NIM > BP model. The reliability of the NIM, ELM model, BP model and CSA-ELM model was analyzed using the theory of distinction degree. The reliability of the NIM was not good, although its distinction degree was large; the distinction degrees of the ELM model, BP model and CSA-ELM model were close to each other. The ranked results of reliability are CSA-ELM model > ELM model > BP model. The CSA-ELM model can provide a stable and reliable evaluation method for the evaluation of related fields and thus has important practical applicability.     

冷却猪肉中气单胞菌生长预测模型的建立和检验

为探讨冷却猪肉中气单胞菌的生长规律,将气单胞茵接种到经过80℃无菌水灭菌的冷却猪肉中,构建Gompertz和Baranyi初级模型来描述气单胞菌在不同温度下的生长状况。结果表明：修正的Gompertz模型对气单胞菌生长曲线的拟合效果优于Baranyi模型,R2均在0．97以上。应用平方根模型和Arrhenius模型对由修正的Gompertz模型得出的最大比生长速率进行拟合,所得平方根模型拟合效果略优于Arrhenius模型。实验所建二级模型能预测0-35℃贮藏条件下气单胞菌的生长。     

大鼠偏头痛模型的制作改进及评判指标选择

目的:对现有硝酸甘油型大鼠偏头痛模型不均一稳定缺点予以改进,探究更为合理、有效模型建立方法和特征指标。方法:采用雄性SD大鼠,分别使用硝酸甘油无水乙醇注射液和硝酸甘油混悬液,按照12 mg/kg、10 mg/kg、8 mg/kg剂量造模并观察记录其行为学变化。用ELISA法检测模型血清和脑组织5-HT变化,确定较为合理、可靠且均一的改良硝酸甘油偏头痛模型。结果:成功复制大鼠体偏头痛模型。使用硝酸甘油混悬液,皮下注射用量为10 mg/kg时模型效果较均一,造模后20~60 min之间有显著的行为学变化,出现抖身现象,并以倦怠结束。结论:与现有的偏头痛模型比较,最显著的改进之处在于使用硝酸甘油混悬液,延长了模型标志性行为动作的持续时间,以特定时间段内出现明确的行为变化作为观察指标,避免了剂型剂量和个体差异带来的模型效果差异,从而提高了模型的均一性。     

Isometric force generated by locust skeletal muscle: responses to single stimuli

A mathematical model of the locust hind leg extensor muscle is described. The model accounts for the force response of the muscle to well-separated input stimuli under isometric conditions. Experimental data was collected by stimulating the extensor muscle and measuring the force generated at the tibia. In developing a model it was assumed that the response to a single isolated stimulus was linear. A linear model was found to fit well to the response to an isolated stimulus. No assumptions were made about the model order and models of various order were fitted to data in the frequency domain, using a least squares fit. The stimulus can be approximated as an impulse, with the response to each stimulus well described by a linear second-order system. Using a third-order model provided a better fit to data, but the improvement in fit was marginal and the model uses one extra parameter. A fourth-order model, which is often used to describe the behaviour of isometric muscle was found to overfit the data. Using a second-order model provides a simpler way of describing the behaviour of an isometric twitch.     

格氏栲种群生态学研究 Ⅲ. 格氏栲种群优势度增长动态规律研究

采用有限空间种群增长的逻辑斯谛模型探讨格氏栲种群基面积增长规律。提出自适应通用模型ds/dt=rs(1-s^θ/k^φ).该模型包括Logistic模型、Smith模型、Gompertz模型、崔Lawson模型和Z-Logistic模型;运用改进单纯形对自适应通用模型进行优化,拟合结果比Logistic模型更符合格氏栲种群实际增长趋势,增长速度最大是在147年。     

基于地理加权泊松模型的天然次生林进界株数空间分布与预测

基于帽儿山实验林场2004—2016年森林资源二类调查固定样地(共108块)数据,采用全局Poisson模型和4种空间尺度(2.5、5、10、15 km)下的地理加权泊松模型(geographically weighted Poisson regression, GWPR)对天然次生林进界株数的空间分布进行了研究,并对5种模型的拟合效果以及影响林分进界株数的因子进行了分析,利用莫兰指数描述了模型残差在全局和局域两种水平上的空间自相关性.结果表明: 本文所选的林分及地形因子都显著影响天然次生林进界株数的空间分布,林分平均胸径是最主要的影响因子;在小尺度(2.5 km)下GWPR模型拥有很高的拟合精度,产生了最大范围的模型参数估计值,得到了较好的模型参数局域化空间分布效果;在较小尺度(2.5和5 km)下GWPR模型产生了较小范围的模型残差,模型的稳定性得到提升;在小尺度(2.5 km)下GWPR模型残差的全局空间自相关性达到最低,局域空间自相关性显著减小,并形成了不同观测值少量聚类这一理想的空间分布模式;在对进界株数空间分布的模拟效果上,小尺度(2.5 km)下的局域模型明显好于全局模型.     

ARIMA模型在杭州市中小学生咳嗽症状监测中的应用

目的：探讨时间序列ARIMA模型在时间序列资料分析中的应用,建立咳嗽症状监测数据的预测模型.方法：采用条件最小二乘方法估计模型参数.通过对数转换及差分方法使原始序列平稳,按照残差不相关原则、简洁原则确定模型结构,依据AIC和SBC准则确定模型阶数,最终建立起ARIMA预测模型.结果：ARIMA（1,1,1）模型拟合效果较好,方差估计值为0.7361,AIC=95.6092,SBC=98.8310,对模型进行白噪声残差检验,提示残差为白噪声.结论：症状监测这种具有时间序列特点的资料可以用ARIMA模型来进行拟合估计.本文中预测结果可信区间比较宽,可能是因为时间序列比较短,还未能考虑到季节趋势.另外,所用监测数据是在中小学生在校发生症状的人数,故在节假日会出现缺失值,样本量和时间长度均有限,可能影响模型估计的准确性,本研究的结论还有待于将来资料积累后进行修正和深化.     

糖尿病高血压大鼠动物模型的制备及稳定性观察

目的：探讨建立高血压合并糖尿病（DiabetesMellitus,DM）大鼠模型的方法,并观察模型的稳定性。方法：采用链脲佐菌素（Streptozotocin,STZ）腹腔注射的方法造模。8周龄的SHR大鼠（spontaneouslyhypertensiverats）16只,随机等分成对照组和造模组。另选8只8周龄WKY大鼠作为正常血压对照组。给予造模组SHR按55mg/kg体重的剂量腹腔注射STZ,诱导建立糖尿病高血压大鼠动物模型。结果：小剂量STZ（55mg/kg）腹腔注射SHR制备的糖尿病高血压大鼠模型,造模成本低,成模率高,模型稳定。结论：造模组能成功诱导建立糖尿病高血压大鼠模型。     

Equilibrium between genetic drift and migration at various mutation rates: simulation analysis

Rates of approach to equilibrium values of F(ST)/R(ST) at various mutation rates and using different mutation models (K-allele model KAM and stepwise model SMM) were analyzed numerically for the finite island model and the one-dimensional stepping stone models of migration, using simulation. In the island model of migration and the KAM mutation model, the rate of approach to the equilibrium F(ST) value was appreciably higher and the equilibrium value was almost twofold lower at micro (mutation rate) = m (migration rate) than at micro < m. In the one-dimensional stepping stone model of migration and the KAM model of mutation, the mutation rate significantly affected both the rate of approaching F(ST) equilibrium and the equilibrium value. In both island and one-dimensional stepping stone models and SMM, R(ST) was not influenced by various mutation rates. The rate of approach to the equilibrium values of both F(ST) and R(ST) was lower for the stepping stone model than to the island model. RST was rather resistant to deviations from the SMM mutation model.     

森林生物量估算中模型不确定性分析

单木生物量估算是区域森林生物量估算的基础。量化单木生物量模型中各种不确定性来源,分析各不确定性来源对森林生物量估算的影响,可为提高森林生物量估算精度提供理论依据。基于52株杉木地上部分生物量实测数据,建立杉木单木地上部分生物量一元与二元模型。在两种模型形式下,根据临安市2009年森林资源连续清查数据中杉木实测数据,分析单木生物量模型中所包含的2种不确定性,即模型参数不确定性和模型残差变异引起的不确定性。最后利用误差传播定律计算单木生物量模型总不确定性。结果表明,基于一元生物量模型的临安市杉木生物量估计均值为6.94 Mg/hm~2,由一元模型残差变异引起的生物量不确定性约为11.1%,模型参数误差引起的生物量不确定性约为14.4%,一元生物量模型估算合成不确定性为18.18%。基于二元生物量模型的临安市杉木生物量估计均值为7.71 Mg/hm~2,模型残差变异引起的不确定性约为7.0%,模型参数误差引起的不确定性约为8.53%,二元生物量模型估算合成不确定性为11.03%。研究表明模型参数不确定性随建模样本的增加逐渐降低,当建模样本由30增加到40再增加到52时,一元生物量模型模型参数不确定性分别为20.26%、16.19%、14.4%,二元生物量模型分别为13.09%、9.4%、8.53%。此外,建模样本的增加对残差变异不确定性也有一定影响,当建模样本由30增加到42再增加到48时,一元模型残差变异不确定性分别为15.2%,12.3%和11.7%;二元模型残差变异不确定性分别为13.3%,9.4%和8.3%。在2种不确定性来源中模型参数不确定性对估计结果影响最大,其次为模型残差变异。由于模型残差变异、参数不确定性与建模样本有关,因此可以通过增加建模样本来减小模型参数不确定性。二元生物量模型总的不确定性要低于一元生物量模型。