Resource partitioning between ungulate populations in arid environments

Herbivores are major drivers of ecosystem structure, diversity, and function. Resilient ecosystems therefore require viable herbivore populations in a sustainable balance with environmental resource availability. This balance is becoming harder to achieve, with increasingly threatened species reliant on small protected areas in increasingly harsh and unpredictable environments. Arid environments in North Africa exemplify this situation, featuring a biologically distinct species assemblage exposed to extreme and volatile conditions, including habitat loss and climate change‐associated threats. Here, we implement an integrated likelihood approach to relate scimitar‐horned oryx (Oryx dammah) and dorcas gazelle (Gazella dorcas) density, via dung distance sampling, to habitat, predator, and geographic correlates in Dghoumes National Park, Tunisia. We show how two threatened sympatric ungulates partition resources on the habitat axis, exhibiting nonuniform responses to the same vegetation gradient. Scimitar‐horned oryx were positively associated with plant species richness, selecting for vegetated ephemeral watercourses (wadis) dominated by herbaceous cover. Conversely, dorcas gazelle were negatively associated with vegetation density (herbaceous height, litter cover, and herbaceous cover), selecting instead for rocky plains with sparse vegetation. We suggest that adequate plant species richness should be a prerequisite for areas proposed for future ungulate reintroductions in arid and semi‐arid environments. This evidence will inform adaptive management of reintroduced ungulates in protected environments, helping managers and planners design sustainable ecosystems and effective conservation programs.     

道路对三江源国家公园黄河源园区藏野驴和藏原羚种群数量及其栖息地的影响

为探究道路对三江源国家公园黄河源园区藏野驴(Equus kiang)和藏原羚(Procapra picticaudata)种群数量及其栖息地的影响,于2020年冷季采用截线取样法在黄河源园区进行实地调查.通过设置4种不同等级的道路情景,使用MaxEnt模型评价藏野驴和藏原羚的生境适宜性,模拟了不同等级道路变量情景下两种...     

Does the protected area network preserve bird species of conservation concern in a rapidly changing climate?

Species ranges are expected to move polewards following the changing climate, which poses novel challenges to the protected area network, particularly at northern latitudes. Here we study how well protected areas are likely to sustain populations of birds of conservation concern under a changing climate in northern Europe, in Finland. We fitted bioclimatic envelope models generated for 100 bird species to climate scenario data for the years 2051–2080 and three alternative emission scenarios in a 10-km grid system to predict changes in the species probability of occurrence. We related the projected changes in the climatic suitability to the amount of protected preferred habitat for the study species in the 10-km grid cells, and based on the cover of four main CORINE Land Cover classes in each conservation area in Finland. The probability of occurrence of all species (except marshland birds) decreased according to all scenarios, the decline being greatest in southern and smallest in northern boreal zones. This decline was slightly greater in unprotected than in protected areas for species of forests, mires and mountain habitats. The climatically suitable areas for the species were predicted to shift northwards, but the potential gain of southern species of conservation concern appears not to compensate for the loss of northern species. Thus, a representative protected area network is needed in all boreal zones. Overall, our results show that species-specific habitat preferences and habitat availability should be taken into account when assessing the efficiency of a protected area network in a changing climate.     

黑龙江省老爷岭南部穆棱林区马鹿种群分布数量及生境适宜性评价

开展野生动物种群分布数量和生境适宜性评价研究是制定物种科学保护决策的基础和关键。以东北马鹿(Cervus canadensis xanthopygus)为研究对象,于2015—2020年在黑龙江省老爷岭南部穆棱林区,采用大样方调查方法收集马鹿在雪地留下的足迹信息分析马鹿种群数量;通过相机监测、足迹链跟踪和大样方调查3种方法综合收集马鹿活动点信息,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)建模分析马鹿生境适宜性。马鹿种群分布数量研究结果表明,穆棱林区马鹿种群密度为(0.0645±0.009)只/km~2,种群数量为47—61只,主要分布在研究地区南部的和平、龙爪沟和共和林场。生境分析结果表明：人为干扰因子中,居民区对MaxEnt模型的贡献率为44%,马鹿主要在距居民区距离约5 km和10—15 km的区域活动,在偏僻的林间小道和乡村道路马鹿生境适宜性较高,其对模型贡献率分别为16.8%和10.2%;植被因子中,在距常绿针叶林和针阔混交林距离4 km范围内,随距离增加马鹿生境适宜性逐渐降低。生境适宜性分析结果表明,研究地区马鹿适宜生境和次适宜生境面积为87.09 km~2,仅占研究区域的10.39%,主要...     

Landscape-scale impacts of transportation infrastructure on spatial dynamics of two vulnerable ungulate species in Ghamishloo Wildlife Refuge,Iran

Development of roads through protected areas can have deleterious effects on natural habitats containing species of conservation concern. During the past decades road construction has affected many former remote areas and led to fragmentation and isolation of wildlife populations. The present study focuses on the ecological impacts of Isfahan's West Freeway, which passes through Ghamishloo Wildlife Refuge; an IUCN category IV protected area, in Isfahan Province. The two key affected species, both classified as vulnerable by IUCN, the goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa subgutturosa) and the wild sheep (Ovis orientalis isphahanica) were subject to impact analyses. We used habitat evaluation procedure (HEP) as a habitat-based impact assessment methodology which considers habitat quality and quantity. Habitat quality was measured as habitat suitability index (HSI) for each species. By literature review and field observations, five variables defining habitat suitability were identified and suitability maps for both species generated. Habitat units (HUs) were derived from multiplying the HSI for each species by the habitat area before and after freeway construction. The results showed that due to the construction of the freeway, about 14% of the HUs for goitered gazelle and about 9% of the HUs for wild sheep were lost. In addition, for quantifying landscape pattern change due to freeway construction, various landscape metrics were calculated for the species distribution polygons for two times before and after freeway construction. Results obtained through quantifying landscape metrics showed that mean nearest neighbor (MNN) and number of patches (NP) metrics increased. On the other hand, CONTAG metric decreased in both goitered gazelle and wild sheep distribution polygons, demonstrating the negative effect of freeway on these species distribution polygons integrity. According to the results of this study, mitigation and compensation activities should be considered in Ghamishloo Wildlife Refuge. Our study demonstrated that HEP method combined with quantifying landscape metrics might provide a powerful tool for assessing ecological impact of technical infrastructures on populations of far-ranging species of conservation concern.     

The Distributional Ecology of the Maned Sloth: Environmental Influences on Its Distribution and Gaps in Knowledge

The maned sloth Bradypus torquatus (Pilosa, Bradypodidae) is endemic to a small area in the Atlantic Forest of coastal Brazil. It has been listed as a threatened species because of its restricted geographic range, habitat loss and fragmentation, and declining populations. The major objectives of this study were to estimate its potential geographic distribution, the climatic conditions across its distributional range, and to identify suitable areas and potential species strongholds. We developed a model of habitat suitability for the maned sloth using two methods, Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance, based on 42 occurrence points. We evaluated environmental variable importance and the predictive ability of the generated distribution models. Our results suggest that the species distribution could be strongly influenced by environmental factors, mainly temperature seasonality. The modeled distribution of the maned sloth included known areas of occurrence in the Atlantic Forest (Sergipe, Bahia, Espírito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro), but did not match the observed distributional gaps in northern Rio de Janeiro, northern Espírito Santo or southern Bahia. Rather, the model showed that these areas are climatically suitable for the maned sloth, and thus suggests that factors other than climate might be responsible for the absence of species. Suitable areas for maned sloth were located mainly in the mountainous region of central Rio de Janeiro throughout Espírito Santo and to the coastal region of southern Bahia. We indicate 17 stronghold areas and recommended survey areas for the maned sloth. In addition, we highlight specific areas for conservation, including the current network protected areas. Our results can be applied for novel surveys and discovery of unknown populations, and help the selection of priority areas for management and conservation planning, especially of rare and relatively cryptic species directed associated with forested habitats.     

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km² grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.     

Assessing occupancy and habitat connectivity for Baird’s tapir to establish conservation priorities in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas,Mexico

Baird’s tapir (Tapirus bairdii) is the largest native mammal that inhabits the Neotropics, and it is enlisted as Endangered by the IUCN Red List. The historic distribution of this species included the area from southern Mexico to northern Colombia. However, its distribution and populations have been reduced drastically during the past 30 years. The main threats for Baird’s tapir are the direct persecution for subsistence hunting, habitat destruction, and habitat fragmentation. In this study, we used camera traps and occupancy models to identify the landscape characteristics that were associated with the occurrence of tapirs in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, which is one of the most important populations of the species in Mexico, with the aim to identify areas with habitat suitability for the species. We used our best occupancy model to generate a resistance matrix to develop a model of habitat connectivity using Circuit Theory. According to the best occupancy model, the most suitable areas for this species were the forested areas located at the highest elevations of the mountain ranges that provided rugged terrain. We identified three critical corridors to allow for the connectivity of tapir populations in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, and one of these corridors provides connectivity between this population and the population in the Ocote Biosphere Reserve. With this approach, we propose a conservation strategy for the species that incorporates a more realistic and detailed scheme of Baird’s tapir occurrence in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas region. Priority actions to conserve tapirs in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas over the long term include ensuring the complete protection of prime habitat for the species, improved connectivity by protecting forest cover, implementation mitigation measures in areas where paved roads interrupt connectivity of populations, and eradicating poaching of the species in the region completely.     

基于MaxEnt模型的渤海湾沿岸鸻鹬类栖息地适宜性评价

渤海湾沿岸是鸻鹬类迁徙路线的重要栖息地。由于自然和人为原因,栖息地面积减少,质量恶化。因此,开展渤海湾沿岸鸻鹬类栖息地适宜性评价,对湿地生物多样性保护有重要意义。基于鸻鹬类点位信息和环境因子数据,利用MaxEnt模型对渤海湾沿岸2000年和2015年鸻鹬类栖息地适宜性进行评价。结果表明:土地利用/覆被、NDVI、年均气温、坡向是影响鸻鹬类分布的主要因子;鸻鹬类适宜栖息地主要分布在河北唐山南部和天津滨海地区。研究时段内渤海湾沿岸适宜栖息地面积总体有所下降,河北适宜栖息地面积下降,天津和山东增加;栖息地适宜性增加地区主要集中于天津南部、山东东南部,下降地区主要分布在河北丰南、黄骅及天津宁河县。该研究可识别渤海湾沿岸鸻鹬类适宜栖息地的分布范围及变化趋势,对该区域鸻鹬类保护及栖息地管理具有重要参考意义。     

普氏原羚的分布和种群数量调查

2003 年8 ～9 月,对青海省境内普氏原羚的分布和种群数量进行了专项调查。调查结果表明,普氏原羚现存7 个种群,累计数量为602 只;其中塔勒旋果种群属首次报道。与以往报道相比,目前元者和鸟岛种群数量呈下降趋势;海晏—刚察种群数量增长明显;湖东—克图种群数量有所回升,但仍没有达到20 世纪80 年代中期时的种群数量。普氏原羚种群数量变化与栖息地质量及人为干扰程度有密切相关。本次调查显示,普氏原羚现存栖息地呈不连续的间断分布,随着区域经济开发力度的加大,其栖息地在不断缩减、生存环境质量仍在继续恶化。     

Wild Gazelles of the Southern Levant: Genetic Profiling Defines New Conservation Priorities

The mountain gazelle (Gazella gazelle), Dorcas gazelle (Gazella Dorcas) and acacia gazelle (Gazella arabica acacia) were historically abundant in the southern Levant, and more specifically in Israel. Anthropogenic and natural changes have caused a rapid decline in gazelle populations, raising concerns about their conservation status and future survival. The genetic profile of 111 wild gazelles from Israel was determined based on three regions of mitochondrial DNA (control region, Cytochrome b and 12S ribosomal RNA) and nine nuclear microsatellite markers. Genetic analysis of the mountain gazelle population, the largest known population of this rare species, revealed adequate diversity levels and gene flow between subpopulations. Nevertheless, ongoing habitat degradation and other human effects, such as poaching, suggest the need for drastic measures to prevent species extinction. Dorcas gazelles in Israel displayed inbreeding within subpopulations while still maintaining considerable genetic diversity overall. This stable population, represented by a distinctive genetic profile, is fragmented and isolated from its relatives in neighboring localities. Based on the genetic profile of a newly sampled subpopulation in Israel, we provide an alternative hypothesis for the historic dispersal of Dorcas gazelle, from the Southern Levant to northern Africa. The small acacia gazelle population was closest to gazelles from the Farasan Islands of Saudi Arabia, based on mitochondrial markers. The two populations did not share haplotypes, suggesting that these two populations may be the last remnant wild gazelles of this species worldwide. Only a dozen acacia gazelles survive in Israel, and urgent steps are needed to ensure the survival of this genetically distinctive lineage. The genetic assessments of our study recognize new conservation priorities for each gazelle species in the Southern Levant.     

基于MaxEnt模型的人类干扰对滇金丝猴潜在分布的影响

滇金丝猴 (Rhinopithecus bieti) 是我国特有的濒危灵长类动物,预测其栖息地变化,评估人类活动影响,进而识别保护空缺,对该物种的保护具有重要意义。本文使用出行大数据估计人类出行密度,并将这一指标引入栖息地模型的构建;运用MaxEnt模型和空间分析技术分别构建自然环境和人类干扰两种情景下滇金丝猴的适宜栖息地模型,并分析自然环境与人类干扰两类共计11个变量对栖息地的影响。结果显示：(1) MaxEnt模型的预测精度较高,基于出行大数据的人类出行密度这一指标能很好表征人类干扰对栖息地的影响。(2) 模型预测得到滇金丝猴高适宜栖息地面积3 487.28 km²,认为影响滇金丝猴潜在分布的主要环境变量是海拔、年降水量、人类出行密度和距道路距离。(3) 人类干扰对滇金丝猴栖息地有明显的负影响 (使适宜栖息地面积相较于自然环境下减少9.32%),其中人类出行活动对滇金丝猴的栖息地干扰最为明显;同时还发现研究区78.8%的区域均受到一个或多个人类变量的较强干扰。(4) 在现有15个滇金丝猴群的活动斑块中,3个同时具有较高栖息地适宜性和较多人类干扰的斑块,可作为重点保护区域;同时发现栖息地质量在距道路和居民点约2 500 m处均出现明显拐点,可作为开展保护工作的缓冲区参考距离。降低这些区域的人类干扰强度,对滇金丝猴的生存具有更重要的现实保护意义。     

Time allocation and patterns of activity of the dorcas gazelle (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gazella dorcas</Emphasis>) in a sahelian habitat

The patterns of activity are a reflection of the adaptation of a species to its habitat. This study reports the patterns of activity and time allocation of the dorcas gazelle following their reintroduction process from the captivity to semi-wild conditions in a sahelian habitat. Activity of three adult males was recorded using GPS collars equipped with a temperature sensor and acceleration sensors recording in two channels, forward–backward (X-axis) and sideways (Y-axis). Collars delivered data for 59, 139 and 151 days. The aim of this work is to assess the ability of dorcas gazelle to adapt its activity schedule to a changing environment. The main activity behaviour observed is resting (59.8 ± 23.9%), followed by feeding (20.9 ± 10.9%), displacement (15.1 ± 14.1%) and running (3.9 ± 5.5%). If resting time is eliminated, the gazelles invest most of their time in feeding (61.0 ± 21.3%) and displacements (30.8 ± 15.6%) and only 7.6 ± 0.6% in running. The dorcas gazelle exhibit three patterns of activity: one diurnal with maximum activity in the central hours of the day, which accounts during the dry-cool season (December, January and February); a bimodal pattern with maximum activity at dust and dark, resting in the middle of the day during the hot-dry season (April) and a transitional pattern in March. Temperature is the main driver of this change in patterns; when average temperature exceeds the body temperature of the dorcas gazelle, the pattern of activity changes from diurnal to bimodal. These results reveal the ability of the dorcas gazelles facing environmental changing conditions in their native habitat.     

Modeling habitat suitability for chimpanzees (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pan troglodytes verus</Emphasis>) in the Greater Nimba Landscape,Guinea, West Africa

Tropical forests and the biodiversity within them are rapidly declining in the face of increasing human populations. Resource management and conservation of endangered species requires an understanding of how species perceive and respond to their environments. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an appropriate tool for identifying conservation areas of concern and importance. In this study, SDM was used to identify areas of suitable chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes verus) habitat within the Greater Nimba Landscape, Guinea, West Africa. This location was ideal for investigating the effects of landscape structure on habitat suitability due to the topographic variation of the landscape and the Critically Endangered status of the Western chimpanzee. Additionally, this is the only mountainous, long-term chimpanzee study site and little is known about the effects of topography on chimpanzee behavior. Suitable habitat was predicted based on the location of direct and indirect signs of chimpanzee presence and the spatial distribution of 12 biophysical variables within the study area. Model performance was assessed by examining the area under the curve. The overall predictive performance of the model was 0.721. The variables most influencing habitat suitability were the normalized difference vegetation index (37.8%), elevation (27.3%), hierarchical slope position (11.5%), surface brightness (6.6%), and distance to rivers (5.4%). The final model highlighted the isolation and fragmentation of chimpanzee habitat within the Greater Nimba Landscape. Understanding the factors influencing chimpanzee habitat suitability, specifically the biophysical variables considered in this study, will greatly contribute to conservation efforts by providing quantitative habitat information and improving survey efficiency.     

Terrestrial Mammal Occupancy in the Context of Widespread Forest Loss and a Proposed Interoceanic Canal in Nicaragua's Decreasingly Remote South Caribbean Region

Central America is experiencing rapid forest loss and habitat degradation both inside and outside of protected areas. Despite increasing deforestation, the Caribbean region of Nicaragua plays an important role in the survival or extinction of large mammal populations in Central America given that it still retains core areas of habitat for large mammal species. The proposed interoceanic canal project that would bisect the southern half of this Caribbean region represents a new threat that, combined with an advancing agricultural frontier, could affect populations of large mammal species such as jaguars, white-lipped peccaries, and Baird’s tapirs. We used occupancy models to examine the relative occupancy probabilities for an assemblage of terrestrial mammals in the south Caribbean region of Nicaragua to identify current core areas for our study species and conduct a preliminary evaluation of the potential impacts of the proposed interoceanic canal. We modeled a community level distribution of eight species with varying levels of sensitivity to human encroachment and a range of habitat associations. Our model results reveal three priority areas for terrestrial mammal conservation in our study area. The mapped predictions show that the only remaining area of suitable habitat for large mammals in the path of the proposed interoceanic canal is a relatively thin strip of forest that runs along the Caribbean Coast. In light of these findings, we propose five recommendations that will help ensure the conservation of this area of the proposed canal route as suitable habitat for our study species.     

Ecological analysis and environmental niche modelling of Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soo: A conservation approach for critically endangered medicinal orchid

The natural populations of Dactylorhiza hatagirea have been greatly affected due to incessant exploitation. As such, studies on its population attributes together with habitat suitability and environmental factors affecting its distribution are needed to be undertaken for its conservation in nature. Present study aimed at accessing an impact of anthropogenic pressure on population structure and locate suitable habitats for the conservation of this critically endangered orchid. Considerable changes in the phytosociological attributes were observed on account of the changing magnitude and extent of anthropogenic threat in their natural abode. The distribution pattern of species indicated that more than 90% of the populations exhibit substantially aggregated spatial distribution. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) distribution modelling algorithm was used to predict suitable habitat and potential area for its cultivation and reintroduction. Twenty-seven occurrence records, nineteen bioclimatic variables, altitude, and slope were used. MaxEnt map output gave the habitat suitability for this species and predicted its distribution in the North-Western Himalayas of India for approximately 616 km². Jackknifing indicated that maximum temperature of warmest month, annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the driest quarter, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were the governing factors for its distribution and hence, presented a higher gain with respect to other variables. According to permutation importance, precipitation seasonality and mean temperature of wettest quarter shows the prominent impact on the habitat distribution. Results of AUC (area under curve) were statistically significant (0.940) and the line of predicted omission falls very close to an omission on training samples, validating a better run of the model. Response curves revealed a probable increase in the occurrence of D. hatagirea with an increase in mean temperature of the wettest quarter and maximum temperature of the warmest month contributed more than 50% to predicted habitat suitability. Direct field observations concurrent with predicted habitat suitability and google-earth images represent greater model thresholds for successful inception of the species. Together, the study proposes that the species can be conserved in or near its present-day natural habitats and is equally effective in determining the possible habitats for its cultivation and reintroduction.     

Multi-scale turtle dove nest habitat selection in a Mediterranean agroforestry landscape: implications for the conservation of a vulnerable species

Determination of factors affecting nest habitat selection is a major topic in avian ecology, with strong implications for conservation purposes especially for the species with unfavorable status. The turtle dove (Streptopelia turtur) is a vulnerable species that has undergone a rapid and serious decline across its distribution range. I investigated the effect of different variables at two spatial scales (10-m radius, nest site; and 100-m radius, landscape) on the probability of presence of turtle dove nests in an agroforestry system of Central Morocco. Topography, habitat structure, human disturbance, and land use parameters were measured at nests (n?=?70) and random points (n?=?70) at both scales. Generalized linear model analyses showed that, at the nest site scale, tree height best explained occurrence of turtle dove nests (with nest occurring preferentially in smaller trees). At the landscape scale, nest occurrence probability decreased with elevation and distance to the nearest forest edge, and increased with forest cover and distance to the nearest habitation. Comparison of explanatory power of the single-scale models showed that the most relevant scale was the nest site level, followed by landscape scales, but the model including both nest-scale and landscape-scale variables was best. The variation partitioning analysis confirmed this pattern. In study area, the turtle dove nest habitat selection process occurs within a relatively small scale, but the joint effect of variables at the two scales is relevant. From a practical perspective, it would be interesting to reproduce the same experimental approach on other Mediterranean breeding habitats (agricultural and other forest habitats) to find out if this species would adopt the same nest habitat selection pattern.     

青海湖地区普氏原羚的种群结构

普氏原羚是中国的特有动物。 1986年在青海湖地区仅发现 35 0只普氏原羚 ,分布于鸟岛、湖东 克图和元者 3个种群之中。 1996～ 1998年 7月至 8月 ,我们沿设定的 10条样线对青海湖地区的普氏原羚进行了考察。调查样线总长度为 37 5 5km。观察记录距样线两侧 10 0m以内普氏原羚足迹链和狼足迹链、粪堆和尿迹。同时记录观察样线两侧 6 0 0m以内的普氏原羚个体 ,记录群体大小、性别和年龄 ,然后 ,计算单位样带面积上普氏原羚和狼的密度。 1997年湖东 克图种群雄羚占 2 9%、雌羚占 5 0 %和幼羚占 2 1% ;元者种群雄羚占 2 9%、雌羚占 43%和幼羚占 2 7%。狼捕食是 1997年湖东 克图种群数量下降的主要原因。在湖东 克图沙漠中 ,1996年普氏原羚群体大小为 9 0± 6 9只 (平均数±方差 ) ,密度为 3 19± 3 5 9只 /km2 ,而 1997年为 4 2± 3 9只 /km2 ,密度为 1 14± 1 0 9只 /km2 。 1997年冬季猎狼后 ,湖东 克图种群数量回升到 2 14± 3 13只 /km2 ,幼羚占群体的2 7%。     

基于集成模型的小黄鱼越冬群体适宜生境及其环境影响因素

小黄鱼是中韩渔业共同利用鱼种,其跨界洄游习性限制了对越冬场范围的调查和评估,导致对越冬群体适宜栖息地分布缺乏了解。本研究基于越冬期我国自然海域的物种分布点位数据和5个环境数据,运用8个物种分布模型(SDM)分析了小黄鱼越冬场分布范围,采用5折交叉验证,利用受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)评价模型预测性能,并通过加权集成方法构建综合生境模型预测越冬场核心分布位置。结果表明: 出现/未出现数据模型预测准确度普遍高于仅出现模型;在出现/未出现数据模型中,机器学习方法预测准确度高于经典回归模型,支持向量模型(SVM)准确度最高(AUC=0.85),广义线性模型(GLM)准确度最低(AUC=0.73)。集成模型AUC较单一独立模型的准确度有所提升,表明集成模型能有效降低单一独立模型所带来的不确定性,提高模型预测准确度。变量重要性分析结果显示,盐度和温度是决定小黄鱼越冬场地理分布的重要因素,适宜分布区集中在黄海南部外海、东海北部外海和浙江省沿岸海域,而黄海南部沿岸海域和东海中南部外海为不适宜越冬区。研究结果为预测小黄鱼潜在越冬场提供了理论基础,可支撑越冬场渔业资源的空间规划和可持续利用。     

The generality of habitat suitability models: A practical test with two insect groups

For the design and declaration of conservation areas as well as for planning habitat management it is important to quantitatively know the habitat preferences of the focal species. To take into account the requirements of as many species as possible, it would be of great advantage if one would either (i) find one or several species whose habitat requirements cover those of a large number of other species or if one could (ii) identify a common set of habitat parameters that is important for the occurrence of many species. Ideally such common habitat parameters should be easy to measure. Only then they may be of practical value in applied conservation biology.In this study, we compared the habitat preferences of different insect species (grasshoppers, bush crickets, butterflies, moths) in the same region by applying identical methods. To identify common explanatory variables that predict the occurrence probability of these species, we first tested the transferability of the specific ‘species models’ to other species within the same insect group. We tested how well the incidence of one species can be predicted by the occurrence probability of another species. The ‘best’ models within each group were then tested for transferability between the different groups. Additionally, we tested the predictive power of the predictor variable ‘habitat type’ as an easy and often available measure for conservation practice.Although in the different ‘species models’ different key factors determine habitat suitability, some models were successfully transferred and were able to reasonably predict the distribution of other species. The habitat preferences of the burnet moth Zygaena carniolica were particularly well suited for the prediction of suitable habitats for all other species. In addition, the predictor variable ‘habitat type’ played a dominant role in all models. Models using this aggregated predictor variable may well predict suitable habitat for all species.