Assessing the impact of ecological and economic factors on land degradation vulnerability through multiway analysis

Land degradation (LD) is a global problem which involves climate, soil, vegetation, economic, and population conditions. In Mediterranean Europe climatic variability and human pressure combine to produce soil sealing, erosion, salinisation, fire risk, and landscape fragmentation, all regarded as important factors to start LD. The aim of this paper is to introduce a time-series evaluation of land vulnerability to degradation based on nine ecological and economic variables. The analysis was carried out over 1970–2000 at the municipality level in Latium (central Italy), a region which has shown increasing land vulnerability in the last years. A multiway data analysis (MDA) was applied in order to explore the relationship among indicators over the study period. Their importance in determining LD vulnerability was estimated through a weighting system based on MDA results. A composite index of land vulnerability (LVI) was obtained as the weighted average of the nine variables transformed into single indicators, according to their relationship with LD. Considerable increases in LVI were observed in dry coastal and lowland municipalities close to Rome, thus indicating that climate aridity, population growth, and land use changes are important determinants of land vulnerability in Latium. LVI was positively correlated to the environmental sensitive area index (ESAI) measured on the same spatial and time scales, thus suggesting that a sound evaluation of land vulnerability is possible through LVI score.     

Indirect validation of the Environmental Sensitive Area Index using soil degradation indicators: A country-scale approach

The Environmental Sensitivity Area Index (ESAI) is one of the most used frameworks to monitor land vulnerability to degradation in southern Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East. ESAI outputs were validated on the field at both local and regional scales, but a country or continental scale validation is still missing. Using non-parametric correlations and multivariate statistics, the present study contrasts the spatial distribution of the ESAI over 8100 local municipalities in Italy with 12 soil variables assessing individual soil attributes, soil degradation processes and the overall soil quality. Three supplementary variables assessing elevation, latitude and the urban–rural gradient have been also considered in the analysis. The ESAI correlated with both soil attributes (topsoil organic carbon) and degradation processes (soil contamination risk, landslide risk, grazing pressure and agricultural mechanization, considered a predisposing factor to soil compaction) varying in intensity along the elevation gradient. The approach illustrated provides an indirect evaluation of the reliability of the ESAI as a multi-domain indicator of land vulnerability to degradation in the Mediterranean region.     

Assessing trends in climate aridity and vulnerability to soil degradation in Italy

The present study illustrates a framework to analyze changes in climate aridity and soil degradation on a country scale in Italy. The spatial distribution of an indicator of soil vulnerability to degradation (the SQI, soil quality index) was compared with an aridity index (the ratio of annual rainfall to annual reference evapotranspiration) estimated on a decadal basis during 1951–2010. The aridity index decreased by 0.38% per year indicating increased aridity and a non-uniform spatial distribution of soil vulnerability to degradation. Changes in the aridity index were found associated with the lowest SQI classes, suggesting that the largest increase in climate aridity affects land with high-quality soils. Territorial disparities in the aridity index between high-quality and low-quality soils decreased over time indicating a more homogeneous and dry climate regime prevailing in the more recent decades. Results may inform sustainable land management policies and National Action Plans to combat desertification in the Mediterranean region. Areas classified at increased aridity and high vulnerability to soil degradation should be identified as a key target for climate change mitigation policies. Sustainable land management strategies are required to address the dependency between climate variations, land-use changes and soil degradation processes.     

基于土地利用格局的云南省福贡县生态脆弱度研究

福贡县位于滇西北横断山脉北段碧罗雪山和高黎贡山之间,云南省西北部是一个典型的生态脆弱带。本文从土地利用格局的角度分析区域生态脆弱度,选取分维数倒数、破碎度、分离度、土壤侵蚀敏感性和生境格局敏感性指数作为评价因子,探讨了福贡县生态脆弱度的分区规律。研究结果表明:土地利用类型生态脆弱度指数从高到低为:滩涂、城镇、耕地、荒草地、灌木林、有林地、水域。脆弱度分区的大致规律为,以福贡县城为中心,越往外围,脆弱度越低。在各脆弱等级区中,随着脆弱程度的上升,各区的分离度和破碎度指数呈上升趋势,土地利用格局趋于破碎化。     

Performance evaluation and cost assessment of a key indicator system to monitor desertification vulnerability

A number of studies have dealt with the assessment of potential and actual desertification risk using composite indices. The Environmental Sensitivity Areas (ESA) approach, developed in the framework of MEDALUS project funded by the European Community, is one of the most used procedures to monitor land vulnerability to degradation in the Mediterranean region. The final output of this procedure is an index (ESI) composing four indicators of climate, soil, vegetation, and land management based on 14 elementary variables. Although applied to a number of case studies throughout southern Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East, the performance of this monitoring system has never been assessed. The present study evaluates the robustness of the ESI through an original procedure incorporating sensitivity analysis and data cost analysis. For each variable, the standard error of the estimate, the correlation coefficient with the ESI, the sensitivity score, and the estimated costs of data collection and handling were calculated in order to evaluate the stability of the final index and the relative importance of each composing variable. The overall performance of the ESI was computed by averaging the score of the four indicators. Variables such as vegetation cover, climate aridity, rainfall, and the degree of land protection provided the largest contribution to the ESI. The illustrated approach is suited to evaluate the overall performance of a set of variables composing a synthetic index. Moreover, to our knowledge, this is the first attempt to consider explicitly the monetary costs of data collection and handling within a composite index evaluation procedure.     

Agro-ecological field vulnerability evaluation and climate change impacts in Souma area (Iran), using MicroLEIS DSS

Soil erosion and contamination are two main desertification indices or land degradation agents in agricultural areas. Global climate change consequence is a priority to predict global environmental change impacts on these degradation risks. This agro-ecological approach can be especially useful when formulating soil specific agricultural practices based on the spatial variability of soils and related resources to reverse environmental degradation. Raizal and Pantanal models within the new MicroLEIS framework, the Ero&Con package, are database/expert system evaluation approach for assessing limitations to land use, or vulnerability of the land to specified agricultural degradation risks. This study was performed in Souma area with approximately 4100 ha extension in the North-West of Iran (west Azarbaijan). Based on 35 sampling soils, Typic Xerofluvents, Typic Calcixerepts, Fluventic Haploxerepts and Fluventic Endaquepts were classified as main subgroups. Climatological data, referred to temperature and precipitation of more than 36 consecutive years were collected from Urmieh station reports and stored in monthly Climate Database CDBm, as a major component of MicroLEIS DSS (CDBm) program. Climate data for a hypothetical future scenario were collected from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports for the 2080s period. The evaluation approach predicts that attainable water erosion vulnerability classes were none (V1) very low (V2) and moderately low (V4) in the total of 72%, 13% and 15% of the Souma area, respectively and they will not affected by climate change. On contrary, attainable wind erosion vulnerability classes will increase. Also, phosphorous and heavy metal contamination vulnerability risks will not differ in two compared scenarios while nitrogen and pesticides vulnerability classes will be improved.     

基于潜在植被的中国陆地生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性定量评价

 陆地生态系统对气候变化的响应及其脆弱性评价研究是当前全球变化领域的重要内容之一。该研究在生态系统过程模型的基础上,耦合了潜在 植被对气候变化的动态响应,模拟气候变化对潜在植被分布格局和生态系统主要功能的影响,以潜在植被的变化次数和变化方 向定义植被分布 对气候变化的敏感性和适应性,以生态系统功能特征量的年际变率及其变化趋势定义生态系统功能对气候变化的敏感性和适应性,进而对生态 系统的脆弱性进行定量评价,分析不同气候条件下我国陆地生态系统的脆弱性分布格局及其区域特点。结果表明,我国自然生态系统气候脆弱 性的总体特点为南低北高、东低西高,气候变化将会增加系统的脆弱性。采用政府间气候变化委员会排放情景特别报告国内和区域资源情景, 即IPCC-SRES-A2气候情景进行的预测模拟表明,到21世纪末我国不脆弱的生态系统比例将减少22%左右,高度脆弱和极度脆弱的生态系统所占的 比例较当前气候条件下分别减少1.3%和0.4%。气候变化对我国陆地生态系统的脆弱性分布格局影响不大。不同气候条件下,高度脆弱和极度脆 弱的自然生态系统主要分布在我国内蒙古、东北和西北等地区的生态过渡带上及荒漠-草地生态系统中。总体而言,华南及西南大部分地区的生 态系统脆弱性将随气候变化而有所增加,而华北及东北地区则有所减小。     

Composite Subsidence Vulnerability Assessment Based on an Index Model and Index Decomposition Method

The threat of damage to buildings and other infrastructures resulting from land subsidence associated with groundwater pumping in urbanized areas is an ongoing problem requiring assessment. An important goal of subsidence vulnerability assessment is to construct a composite subsidence vulnerability index (SVI) that is represented by a set of indicators that focuses on four different thematic factors: physical, social, economic, and environmental vulnerability. These indicators are evaluated on the basis of indicator selection principles and then weighted by their contribution rate to the overall index. The weights reflect different measures assigned to the township-specific conditions. A complete and composite subsidence vulnerability assessment is developed in which future vulnerability management decision-making processes can be readily made. The vulnerability assessment includes not only the construction of the SVI, which involves selecting, assigning value to, weighting, and aggregating the vulnerability indicators, but also the presentation of the SVI decomposition. Research results demonstrate that a composite subsidence vulnerability assessment method can be made by first constructing and then decomposition-presenting the overall SVI. This allows for the relative comparison of subsidence vulnerability and the identification of the main vulnerable indicators; thus providing subsidence risk, which represents an important step toward vulnerability management of water resources.     

色林错-普若岗日国家公园潜在建设区生态环境脆弱性格局评估

西藏色林错及周边区域是高原高寒草原生态系统中珍稀濒危生物物种最多的地区,也是高品质自然景观和文化遗产集中分布区,建立色林错-普若岗日国家公园(以下简称"色-普国家公园")首要考虑当地脆弱的生态环境问题。本研究遵循"因素识别-指标构建-单因子评估-综合评估"的基本思路,识别色-普国家公园潜在建设区的生态环境脆弱性因素,开展冻融侵蚀、水土流失、土地沙化、土壤风蚀、生境环境敏感性单因子评估,结合海拔、坡度、重要生态系统等限定因子,实现对国家公园潜在建设区生态环境脆弱性综合评估,以期为未来国家公园空间范围的确定、功能分区以及适度开展生态旅游等空间布局提供基础支撑。研究表明:(1)潜在建设区存在较严重的冻融侵蚀、水土流失、草地退化、生物多样性减少等生态环境问题。(2)单因子评估显示,潜在建设区主要属于生态环境的中度和高度敏感区、水土流失的中度敏感区、冻融侵蚀的轻度和中度敏感区,土壤风蚀的不敏感和轻度敏感区、土壤沙化的不敏感区。(3)综合评估显示,潜在建设区生态环境脆弱性高,高度脆弱区面积比例达57.60%,主要分布在色林错的西部和北部;低度脆弱区仅占7.38%,主要分布在色林错东部;尼玛县低度脆弱区分布面积最小,安多县分布最多;双湖县高度脆弱区面积分布最广。(4)建议未来国家公园建设把以生态旅游为主的人类活动范围集中在低度脆弱区,并重点加强对高度脆弱区的生态系统完整性与原真性保护。     

Assess the human and environmental vulnerability for coastal hazard by using a multi-criteria decision analysis

This study provides an integrated approach using geographical information system (GIS) based on a multi-criteria approach (MCDA) to assess coastal vulnerability, resulting from human activity, population density, erosion, and climate change-induced sea level rise. A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) for erosion and floods was calculated and mapped (～24 km in length; ～400 m in width, and 11.47 km² in surface) for the lagoon barrier of Nador located on the Mediterranean coast of Morocco. Results suggest that 54% (～13 km) of the shoreline is moderately vulnerable, while 42% (～10 km) is highly vulnerable and only 4% (1 km) present a low vulnerability. The vulnerability map of the socio-economic activities indicates that most wetlands and forest areas 83% (～31 ha) and 50% (～440 ha) respectively, present low vulnerability. 52% percent of artificial areas (～23 ha), 73% of agricultural land (～128 ha), and 41% of natural areas (～363 ha) present moderate vulnerability. However, the level of vulnerability of the remaining artificial and agricultural areas classifies from high to very high. The north-western sector was classified as the most vulnerable area, characterized by an erosion (?0.6 m/yr to ?1.20 m/yr) for 70% of this area, while the south-eastern part shows a low to moderate vulnerability marked by an erosion (?0.1 m/yr to ?1m/yr) for 40% of this area. Coastal vulnerability maps have potential as decision tools to prepare and respond to sea level rise, and identify exposed coastal zones, as such contributing to national climate action and disaster risk reduction sustainable development goals (goals 13 and 11, respectively).     

北方半干旱荒漠草原生态区生态脆弱性变化遥感监测及其驱动机制分析

针对研究区的生态环境特征(风力侵蚀、沙漠化、盐渍化严重、水力侵蚀严重),引入了大尺度景观格局指数(香农均匀性指数和蔓延度指数)和极端气候指数(极端高温日数、极端低温日数和极端降雨日数),构建了北方半干旱荒漠草原生态区生态脆弱性评价体系,进而分析和探讨了该地区近13年的生态脆弱性时空变化格局和驱动机制。结果表明,北方半干旱荒漠草原生态区的生态脆弱性总体上属于中度脆弱状态,呈现自西向东递减的趋势。2000-2013年,北方半干旱荒漠草原生态区生态脆弱性呈现减小趋势。近13年北方半干旱荒漠草原生态区的生态脆弱性时空变化格局受GDP密度、气温、降水、地形等因子影响显著。这些为北方半干旱荒漠草原生态区的生态环境修复及保护提供重要的科学支撑。     

Modelling soil quality changes in Europe. An impact assessment of land use change on soil quality in Europe

Soil is one of the most important and most complex natural resources, but current developments (urbanisation, erosion and climate change) increasingly threaten this valuable resource in Europe and worldwide. The main objective of this paper is to introduce how changes in soil quality were modelled in the SENSOR project through two indicators: soil carbon content and soil water erosion. Indicators were calculated using state variables and model variables that were mainly derived from the CLUE model which predicts land use change in response to policy scenarios.In the case of erosion, accuracy of the calculations was evaluated by comparing GIS data with the results of the PESERA project. The PESERA and SENSOR models predicted comparable soil loss for the first year in the NUTS-X regions of Europe that were analysed. The higher resolution national soil-loss prediction USLE map largely overestimated the amount of soil loss compared to the PESERA and the SENSOR models in the NUTS-X regions of Hungary. This discrepancy may result from technical or methodological differences such as the spatial reference framework (NUTS-X regions), spatial resolution or levels of data aggregation.The soil organic carbon loss predictions for the NUTS-X regions of Europe are displayed on maps and background data are given in tables. The greatest decreases in soil carbon content may be expected in some regions of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, south-eastern UK and eastern Germany. The greatest increases in soil carbon content may be expected in central and eastern parts of the UK, in Ireland, in northern and central Sweden and Estonia, in Greece, in central and southern Italy, in the island of Sardinia and in some regions of Spain.As erosion strongly reduces soil productivity these predictions have not only environmental but also socio-economic implications. The results presented in this paper could be used at EU level to locate regions where negative changes in soil quality can be expected.     

Individual-scale inference to anticipate climate-change vulnerability of biodiversity

Anticipating how biodiversity will respond to climate change is challenged by the fact that climate variables affect individuals in competition with others, but interest lies at the scale of species and landscapes. By omitting the individual scale, models cannot accommodate the processes that determine future biodiversity. We demonstrate how individual-scale inference can be applied to the problem of anticipating vulnerability of species to climate. The approach places climate vulnerability in the context of competition for light and soil moisture. Sensitivities to climate and competition interactions aggregated from the individual tree scale provide estimates of which species are vulnerable to which variables in different habitats. Vulnerability is explored in terms of specific demographic responses (growth, fecundity and survival) and in terms of the synthetic response (the combination of demographic rates), termed climate tracking. These indices quantify risks for individuals in the context of their competitive environments. However, by aggregating in specific ways (over individuals, years, and other input variables), we provide ways to summarize and rank species in terms of their risks from climate change.     

极端气候胁迫下西南喀斯特山区生态系统脆弱性遥感评价

全球气候变暖导致极端天气事件频发,针对西南喀斯特山区的特殊地理国情(水土流失和石漠化严重),引入了大尺度景观格局指数(香农均匀性指数和蔓延度指数)和极端气候指数(极端高温日数、极端低温日数和极端降雨日数),构建了生态系统脆弱性遥感评价体系,进而分析和探讨了该地区近13年的生态系统脆弱性时空变化格局和驱动机制,研究结果表明:西南喀斯特山区的生态系统则属于轻-中度脆弱,其分布格局表现为以川滇黔为核心向周边减小的趋势。2000—2013年,西南喀斯特山区的生态系统脆弱性表现为先增加后减小的趋势。近13年西南喀斯特山区的生态系统脆弱性时空变化格局受人类活动(不同产业GDP和人口密度)、降水、地形地貌、水土流失、石漠化等因素影响较为显著。本研究可以为西南喀斯特山区的生态系统保护及生态环境的恢复与治理提供决策依据和技术支持。     

Post-Fire Resource Redistribution in Desert Grasslands: A Possible Negative Feedback on Land Degradation

Desert grasslands, which are very sensitive to external drivers like climate change, are areas affected by rapid land degradation processes. In many regions of the world the common form of land degradation involves the rapid encroachment of woody plants into desert grasslands. This process, thought to be irreversible and sustained by biophysical feedbacks of global desertification, results in the heterogeneous distribution of vegetation and soil resources. Most of these shrub-grass transition systems at the desert margins are prone to disturbances such as fires, which affect the interactions between ecological, hydrological, and land surface processes. Here we investigate the effect of prescribed fires on the landscape heterogeneity associated with shrub encroachment. Replicated field manipulation experiments were conducted at a shrub-grass transition zone in the northern Chihuahuan desert (New Mexico, USA) using a combination of erosion monitoring techniques, microtopography measurements, infiltration experiments, and isotopic studies. The results indicate that soil erosion is more intense in burned shrub patches compared to burned grass patches and bare interspaces. This enhancement of erosion processes, mainly aeolian, is attributed to the soil–water repellency induced by the burning shrubs, which alters the physical and chemical properties of the soil surface. Further, we show that by enhancing soil erodibility fires allow erosion processes to redistribute resources accumulated by the shrub clumps, thereby leading to a more homogeneous distribution of soil resources. Thus fires counteract or diminish the heterogeneity-forming dynamics of land degradation associated with shrub encroachment by enhancing local-scale soil erodibility. Author Contributions  SR—Conceived of or designed study, performed research, analyzed data, wrote the paper; PD—Conceived of or designed study, performed research, wrote the paper; LW—Performed research, analyzed data; GO—Contributed new methods, analyzed data; SC—Conceived of or designed study; CW—Performed research, contributed new methods or models; and SM—Contributed new methods or models.     

A framework for modelling soil structure dynamics induced by biological activity

Soil degradation is a worsening global phenomenon driven by socio‐economic pressures, poor land management practices and climate change. A deterioration of soil structure at timescales ranging from seconds to centuries is implicated in most forms of soil degradation including the depletion of nutrients and organic matter, erosion and compaction. New soil–crop models that could account for soil structure dynamics at decadal to centennial timescales would provide insights into the relative importance of the various underlying physical (e.g. tillage, traffic compaction, swell/shrink and freeze/thaw) and biological (e.g. plant root growth, soil microbial and faunal activity) mechanisms, their impacts on soil hydrological processes and plant growth, as well as the relevant timescales of soil degradation and recovery. However, the development of such a model remains a challenge due to the enormous complexity of the interactions in the soil–plant system. In this paper, we focus on the impacts of biological processes on soil structure dynamics, especially the growth of plant roots and the activity of soil fauna and microorganisms. We first define what we mean by soil structure and then review current understanding of how these biological agents impact soil structure. We then develop a new framework for modelling soil structure dynamics, which is designed to be compatible with soil–crop models that operate at the soil profile scale and for long temporal scales (i.e. decades, centuries). We illustrate the modelling concept with a case study on the role of root growth and earthworm bioturbation in restoring the structure of a severely compacted soil.     

北方寒冷干旱地区内陆湖泊生态安全评价指标体系研究——以呼伦湖为例

呼伦湖作为我国北方寒冷干旱地区内陆湖泊的典型代表,在涵养水源、调节气候、防风固沙及维系呼伦贝尔草原生态系统平衡乃至我国北方生态安全屏障等方面发挥着不可替代的作用。准确识别呼伦湖流域主要生态安全问题、完善其生态安全评价指标体系对于科学研判呼伦湖生态环境状况、维持区域可持续发展及精准实施底线管控政策具有重要意义。在遥感影像、地面调查、实验模拟等多尺度数据分析基础上,结合历史资料收集、专家咨询、部门访谈等方式分析识别了呼伦湖区域生态安全问题及成因：（1）气候暖干化及超载放牧等因素使得草地退化显著,土地沙化、盐碱化面积扩大;（2）草原退化增加了干草入湖、大气干湿沉降及水土流失等水环境污染负荷;（3）气候暖干化造成湿地萎缩,加之长期的过度捕捞等人类活动使得渔业资源枯竭、鱼类小型化特征显著,水生生态系统稳定性下降,蓝藻水华频发。在全面诊断分析区域生态安全问题的基础上,以山水林田湖草系统方法论为理论指导,以改善呼伦湖流域生态环境质量为核心目标,依据评价指标的针对性、科学性、可操作性及系统性原则,采用压力-状态-响应（Pressure-State-Response,PSR）模型,以气象条件、人口、水资源、水环境压力及人类活动等5个一级指标构成的压力子系统,以水环境状况、水生态状况、陆域生态状况、生态系统服务功能和敏感性、景观格局及生态风险等6个指标构成的状态子系统,以生态治理措施及生态治理投入等2个指标构成的响应子系统,共同组成了一套包含13个一级指标38个二级指标的天空地一体、陆湖统筹的生态安全评价指标体系,以期为呼伦湖及北方寒冷干旱区类似湖泊的生态安全评价研究提供借鉴。     

A multi-trait approach for the identification and protection of European freshwater species that are potentially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change

We present a multi-trait approach to identify potentially vulnerable species of Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Plecoptera (stoneflies) and Trichoptera (caddisflies), collectively referred to as EPT, to the impacts of climate change (CC). The “climate change vulnerability score” (CCVS) is an aggregation of six autecological traits that are known to be associated with vulnerability to CC: endemism, micro-endemism, temperature preference, altitudinal preference, stream zonation preference, and life history. We assigned a vulnerability score (0 – invulnerable to 6 – highly vulnerable to climate change) to 1940 EPT species and discussed the applicability of the index at three spatial scales: (1) continental (Europe), (2) state (the German Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia) and (3) a river basin (the Ruhr River). We identified 157 EPT species (ca. 8%) as highly vulnerable to climate change (CCVS ≥ 4), including 95 species of caddisflies, 60 species of stoneflies and two species of mayflies. These are mostly found in France and Italy (52 species each), Spain and Slovenia (36 and 34, respectively), and Austria and Switzerland (30 species each), of which 95 are caddisflies, 60 stoneflies, and 2 mayflies. Using data collected in routine regional sampling we show that although no endemic EPTs were found in the German Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia, eight species can still be identified as relatively vulnerable to CC (CCVS of 3). Almost all of these species are occurring in the ‘mountainous’ regions of the state (>200 m a.s.l.), the Sauerland and the Eifel. The upper reaches of the Ruhr catchment have been found to be relatively rich in vulnerable species, including several locally rare species. This index can assist conservationists to identify “hotspots” in terms of climate vulnerability and climate change refuge areas that can be considered for protection or the application of restoration measures at a local and regional scale. Nevertheless, not all species have complete autecological information, which hinders our ability to fully recognize the areas of priority. To further stabilize and enhance the applicability of this method, it is essential to fill these knowledge gaps in the future.     

Assessing household livelihood vulnerability to climate change: The case of Northwest Vietnam

This study applied livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and livelihood effect index (LEI) to assess vulnerability from climate variability and change of three agricultural and natural resources dependent commune in northwest Vietnam, a country that is expected to bear some of the most severe impacts of climate change. Based on a survey of 335 farm household data, complemented with secondary data on climate factors, a composite index was calculated and differential vulnerabilities were compared. The results of the analysis suggest that one of the communities, “Pa Vay Su,” was more vulnerable than the others, particularly in relation to housing, knowledge and skills, socio-demographics, health and water security, social networks, and livelihood strategy. “Hien Luong” commune, on the other hand, was more vulnerable in relation to other LVI indicators with the exception of food security, climate variability, and natural disasters. “Moc Chau” community was more vulnerable in relation to water security, social demographic than Hien Luong commune. Overall, the article shows that three different vulnerability assessment indices can be broadly applied in comparable setting in other areas of country and they could usefully establish the basis for a nationally applicable index to identify and prioritize adaptation and mitigation needs.     

Vulnerability of sea turtle nesting grounds to climate change

Given the potential vulnerability of sea turtles to climate change, a growing number of studies are predicting how various climatic processes will affect their nesting grounds. However, these studies are limited by scale, because they predict how a single climatic process will affect sea turtles but processes are likely to occur simultaneously and cause cumulative effects. This study addresses the need for a structured approach to investigate how multiple climatic processes may affect a turtle population. Here, we use a vulnerability assessment framework to assess the cumulative impact of various climatic processes on the nesting grounds used by the northern Great Barrier Reef (nGBR) green turtle population. Further, we manipulate the variables from this framework to allow users to investigate how mitigating different climatic processes individually or simultaneously can influence the vulnerability of the nesting grounds. Our assessment indicates that nesting grounds closer to the equator, such as Bramble Cay and Milman Island, are the most vulnerable to climate change. In the short‐term (by 2030), sea level rise will cause the most impact on the nesting grounds used by the nGBR green turtle population. However, in the longer term, by 2070 sand temperatures will reach levels above the upper transient range and the upper thermal threshold and cause relatively more impact on the nGBR green turtle population. Thus, in the long term, a reduction of impacts from sea‐level rise may not be sufficient, as rookeries will start to experience high vulnerability values from increased temperature. Thus, in the long term, reducing the threats from increased temperature may provide a greater return in conservation investment than mitigating the impacts from other climatic processes. Indeed, our results indicate that if the impacts from increased temperature are mitigated, the vulnerability values of almost all rookeries will be reduced to low levels.