ARIMA与SVM组合模型在害虫预测中的应用

害虫发生是一种复杂、 动态时间序列数据, 单一预测模型都是基于线性或非线性数据, 不能同时捕捉害虫发生的线性和非线性规律, 很难达到理想的预测精度。本研究首先采用差分自回归移动平均模型对昆虫发生时间序列进行线性建模, 然后采用支持向量机对非线性部分进行建模, 最后得到两种模型的组合预测结果。将组合模型应用到松毛虫Dendrolimus punctatus发生面积的预测, 实验结果表明组合模型的预测精度明显优于单一模型, 发挥了两种模型各自的优势。组合模型是一种切实可行的害虫预测预报方法。     

Analysis of trends and variability of toxic concentrations in the Niagara River using the Hilbert-Huang transform method

This study introduces a more recent data analysis method, Hilbert Huang Transform method (HHT), to describe contaminant concentration data of a non-stationary and non-linear nature. In order to improve the modeling of the contaminant concentrations, it is proposed to first process the data using the Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method from HHT to obtain a collection of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) which can then be modeled separately using either autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models expanded with a seasonal term, or linear regression analysis, depending on the nature of the IMF. Three priority contaminants measured at Niagara-on-the-Lakes are selected for this study. It is found that the trend of fluoranthene concentrations from April of 1986 to March of 1997 is decreasing and then beginning to increase; the 1,2,4-trichlorobenzene concentrations are decreasing; while the dieldrin concentrations are decreasing. With HHT, appropriate time series models can be identified and constructed for the studied contaminant concentrations to better illustrate the variability of each IMF (and thus the contaminant concentrations) for the studied period. For all data sets modeled in this study, pre-processing the data with HHT allowed for higher R² values, correlation coefficients and lower sum of squared errors when compared to modeling without HHT. It is thus confirmed that pre-processing the data with HHT and modeling with time series analysis will provide a more effective means of the studied data sets when identifying and analyzing the trends and variability of studied contaminant concentrations in the Niagara River.     

Denoising of ECG signals based on noise reduction algorithms in EMD and wavelet domains

This paper presents a new ECG denoising approach based on noise reduction algorithms in empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) domains. Unlike the conventional EMD based ECG denoising approaches that neglect a number of initial intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) containing the QRS complex as well as noise, we propose to perform windowing in the EMD domain in order to reduce the noise from the initial IMFs instead of discarding them completely thus preserving the QRS complex and yielding a relatively cleaner ECG signal. The signal thus obtained is transformed in the DWT domain, where an adaptive soft thresholding based noise reduction algorithm is employed considering the advantageous properties of the DWT compared to that of the EMD in preserving the energy in the presence of noise and in reconstructing the original ECG signal with a better time resolution. Extensive simulations are carried out using the MIT-BIH arrythmia database and the performance of the proposed method is evaluated in terms of several standard metrics. The simulation results show that the proposed method is able to reduce noise from the noisy ECG signals more accurately and consistently in comparison to some of the stateof-the-art methods.     

Empirical Mode Decomposition and Wavelet Transform Based ECG Data Compression Scheme

ObjectiveIn health-care systems, compression is an essential tool to solve the storage and transmission problems. In this regard, this paper reports a new electrocardiogram (ECG) data compression scheme which employs sifting function based empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and discrete wavelet transform.MethodEMD based on sifting function is utilized to get the first intrinsic mode function (IMF). After EMD, the first IMF and four significant sifting functions are combined together. This combination is free from many irrelevant components of the signal. Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) with mother wavelet ‘bior4.4’ is applied to this combination. The transform coefficients obtained after DWT are passed through dead-zone quantization. It discards small transform coefficients lying around zero. Further, integer conversion of coefficients and run-length encoding are utilized to achieve a compressed form of ECG data.ResultsCompression performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated using 48 ECG records of the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. In the comparison of compression results, it is observed that the proposed method exhibits better performance than many recent ECG compressors. A mean opinion score test is also conducted to evaluate the true quality of the reconstructed ECG signals.ConclusionThe proposed scheme offers better compression performance with preserving the key features of the signal very well.     

Empirical Mode Decomposition and k-Nearest Embedding Vectors for Timely Analyses of Antibiotic Resistance Trends

Background

Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available.

Objective

To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems.

Methods

We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels.

Results

The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends.

Conclusion

The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.     

Information quantification of empirical mode decomposition and applications to field potentials

The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method can adaptively decompose a non-stationary time series into a number of amplitude or frequency modulated functions known as intrinsic mode functions. This paper combines the EMD method with information analysis and presents a framework of information-preserving EMD. The enhanced EMD method has been exploited in the analysis of neural recordings. It decomposes a signal and extracts only the most informative oscillations contained in the non-stationary signal. Information analysis has shown that the extracted components retain the information content of the signal. More importantly, a limited number of components reveal the main oscillations presented in the signal and their instantaneous frequencies, which are not often obvious from the original signal. This information-coupled EMD method has been tested on several field potential datasets for the analysis of stimulus coding in visual cortex, from single and multiple channels, and for finding information connectivity among channels. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the method in extracting relevant responses from the recorded signals. An investigation is also conducted on utilizing the Hilbert phase for cases where phase information can further improve information analysis and stimulus discrimination. The components of the proposed method have been integrated into a toolbox and the initial implementation is also described.     

A Compound Fault Diagnosis for Rolling Bearings Method Based on Blind Source Separation and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

A Compound fault signal usually contains multiple characteristic signals and strong confusion noise, which makes it difficult to separate week fault signals from them through conventional ways, such as FFT-based envelope detection, wavelet transform or empirical mode decomposition individually. In order to improve the compound faults diagnose of rolling bearings via signals’ separation, the present paper proposes a new method to identify compound faults from measured mixed-signals, which is based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and independent component analysis (ICA) technique. With the approach, a vibration signal is firstly decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMF) by EEMD method to obtain multichannel signals. Then, according to a cross correlation criterion, the corresponding IMF is selected as the input matrix of ICA. Finally, the compound faults can be separated effectively by executing ICA method, which makes the fault features more easily extracted and more clearly identified. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method in compound fault separating, which works not only for the outer race defect, but also for the rollers defect and the unbalance fault of the experimental system.     

Empirical mode decomposition based filtering techniques for power line interference reduction in electrocardiogram using various adaptive structures and subtraction methods

Electrocardiogram (ECG) is a vital sign monitoring measurement of the cardiac activity. One of the main problems in biomedical signals like electrocardiogram is the separation of the desired signal from noises caused by power line interference, muscle artifacts, baseline wandering and electrode artifacts. Different types of digital filters are used to separate signal components from unwanted frequency ranges. Adaptive filter is one of the primary methods to filter, because it does not need the signal statistic characteristics. In contrast with Fourier analysis and wavelet methods, a new technique called EMD, a fully data-driven technique is used. It is an adaptive method well suited to analyze biomedical signals. This paper foregrounds an empirical mode decomposition based two-weight adaptive filter structure to eliminate the power line interference in ECG signals. This paper proposes four possible methods and each have less computational complexity compared to other methods. These methods of filtering are fully a signal-dependent approach with adaptive nature, and hence it is best suited for denoising applications. Compared to other proposed methods, EMD based direct subtraction method gives better SNR irrespective of the level of noises.     

Frequency Dependent Topological Patterns of Resting-State Brain Networks

The topological organization underlying brain networks has been extensively investigated using resting-state fMRI, focusing on the low frequency band from 0.01 to 0.1 Hz. However, the frequency specificities regarding the corresponding brain networks remain largely unclear. In the current study, a data-driven method named complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) was introduced to separate the time series of each voxel into several intrinsic oscillation rhythms with distinct frequency bands. Our data indicated that the whole brain BOLD signals could be automatically divided into five specific frequency bands. After applying the CEEMD method, the topological patterns of these five temporally correlated networks were analyzed. The results showed that global topological properties, including the network weighted degree, network efficiency, mean characteristic path length and clustering coefficient, were observed to be most prominent in the ultra-low frequency bands from 0 to 0.015 Hz. Moreover, the saliency of small-world architecture demonstrated frequency-density dependency. Compared to the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD), CEEMD could effectively eliminate the mode-mixing effects. Additionally, the robustness of CEEMD was validated by the similar results derived from a split-half analysis and a conventional frequency division method using the rectangular window band-pass filter. Our findings suggest that CEEMD is a more effective method for extracting the intrinsic oscillation rhythms embedded in the BOLD signals than EMD. The application of CEEMD in fMRI data analysis will provide in-depth insight in investigations of frequency specific topological patterns of the dynamic brain networks.     

An ensemble data assimilation modeling system for operational outdoor microalgae growth forecasting

Microalgae have received increasing attention as a potential feedstock for biofuel or biobased products. Forecasting the microalgae growth is beneficial for managers in planning pond operations and harvesting decisions. This study proposed a biomass forecasting system comprised of the Huesemann Algae Biomass Growth Model (BGM), the Modular Aquatic Simulation System in Two Dimensions (MASS2), ensemble data assimilation (DA), and numerical weather prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble meteorological forecasts. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of ensemble DA to improve both BGM and MASS2 model initial conditions with the assimilation of biomass and water temperature measurements and consequently improve short-term biomass forecasting skills. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed integrated biomass forecasting system, with an application undertaken in pseudo-real-time in three outdoor ponds cultured with Chlorella sorokiniana in Delhi, California, United States. Results from all three case studies demonstrate that the biomass forecasting system improved the short-term (i.e., 7-day) biomass forecasting skills by about 60% on average, comparing to forecasts without using the ensemble DA method. Given the satisfactory performances achieved in this study, it is probable that the integrated BGM-MASS2-DA forecasting system can be used operationally to inform managers in making pond operation and harvesting planning decisions.     

Local Properties of Vigilance States: EMD Analysis of EEG Signals during Sleep-Waking States of Freely Moving Rats

Understanding the inherent dynamics of the EEG associated to sleep-waking can provide insights into its basic neural regulation. By characterizing the local properties of the EEG using power spectrum, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Hilbert-spectral analysis, we can examine the dynamics over a range of time-scales. We analyzed rat EEG during wake, NREMS and REMS using these methods. The average instantaneous phase, power spectral density (PSD) of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and the energy content in various frequency bands show characteristic changes in each of the vigilance states. The 2nd and 7th IMFs show changes in PSD for wake and REMS, suggesting that those modes may carry wake- and REMS-associated cognitive, conscious and behavior-specific information of an individual even though the EEG may appear similar. The energy content in θ₂ (6Hz-9Hz) band of the 1st IMF for REMS is larger than that of wake. The decrease in the phase function of IMFs from wake to REMS to NREMS indicates decrease of the mean frequency in these states, respectively. The rate of information processing in waking state is more in the time scale described by the first three IMFs than in REMS state. However, for IMF5-IMF7, the rate is more for REMS than that for wake. We obtained Hilbert-Huang spectral entropy, which is a suitable measure of information processing in each of these state-specific EEG. It is possible to evaluate the complex dynamics of the EEG in each of the vigilance states by applying measures based on EMD and Hilbert-transform. Our results suggest that the EMD based nonlinear measures of the EEG can provide useful estimates of the information possessed by various oscillations associated with the vigilance states. Further, the EMD-based spectral measures may have implications in understanding anatamo-physiological correlates of sleep-waking behavior and clinical diagnosis of sleep-pathology.     

Temporal associations between weather and headache: analysis by empirical mode decomposition

Background

Patients frequently report that weather changes trigger headache or worsen existing headache symptoms. Recently, the method of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) has been used to delineate temporal relationships in certain diseases, and we applied this technique to identify intrinsic weather components associated with headache incidence data derived from a large-scale epidemiological survey of headache in the Greater Taipei area.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The study sample consisted of 52 randomly selected headache patients. The weather time-series parameters were detrended by the EMD method into a set of embedded oscillatory components, i.e. intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Multiple linear regression models with forward stepwise methods were used to analyze the temporal associations between weather and headaches. We found no associations between the raw time series of weather variables and headache incidence. For decomposed intrinsic weather IMFs, temperature, sunshine duration, humidity, pressure, and maximal wind speed were associated with headache incidence during the cold period, whereas only maximal wind speed was associated during the warm period. In analyses examining all significant weather variables, IMFs derived from temperature and sunshine duration data accounted for up to 33.3% of the variance in headache incidence during the cold period. The association of headache incidence and weather IMFs in the cold period coincided with the cold fronts.

Conclusions/Significance

Using EMD analysis, we found a significant association between headache and intrinsic weather components, which was not detected by direct comparisons of raw weather data. Contributing weather parameters may vary in different geographic regions and different seasons.     

Empirical mode decomposition of field potentials from macaque V4 in visual spatial attention

Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) has recently been introduced as a local and fully data-driven technique for the analysis of non-stationary time-series. It allows the frequency and amplitude of a time-series to be evaluated with excellent time resolution. In this article we consider the application of EMD to the analysis of neuronal activity in visual cortical area V4 of a macaque monkey performing a visual spatial attention task. We show that, by virtue of EMD, field potentials can be resolved into a sum of intrinsic components with different degrees of oscillatory content. Low-frequency components in single-trial recordings contribute to the average visual evoked potential (AVEP), whereas high-frequency components do not, but are identified as gamma-band (30–90 Hz) oscillations. The magnitude of time-varying gamma activity is shown to be enhanced when the monkey attends to a visual stimulus as compared to when it is not attending to the same stimulus. Comparison with Fourier analysis shows that EMD may offer better temporal and frequency resolution. These results support the idea that the magnitude of gamma activity reflects the modulation of V4 neurons by visual spatial attention. EMD, coupled with instantaneous frequency analysis, is demonstrated to be a useful technique for the analysis of neurobiological time-series.     

基于EMD的左右手运动想象脑电信号分析研究

基于经验模态分解（EMD）理论,提出一种左右手运动想象脑电信号分析方法。首先利用时间窗对脑电信号数据进行划分,对每段数据通过经验模态分解法将其分解为一组固有模态函数IMF,提取主要信号所在的IMF层去除信号中的噪声。对含有主要信号的几层IMF进行Hilbert变换,得到瞬时频率与对应的瞬时幅值。再提取左右手想象的特定频段mu节律和beta节律的能量信号作为特征,分别利用支持向量机（SVM）和Fisher进行了分类比较。对EMD和小波包在去噪和特征提取进行了比较。结果表明,EMD是一种很有效的去噪方法,经过EMD分解后提取的能量信号在区分左右手想象上更具有优势,识别率高。     

基于相关系数的水文相依性变异分级方法——以自回归模型为例

水文过程演变存在时间相依性,含有相依成分的水文序列无法满足水文计算中的一致性假设,给水问题研究带来诸多困难.针对水文序列相依性变异这一现象,以自相关模型为例,提出基于相关系数的水文相依性变异分级方法.该方法通过计算相依成分与原序列之间的相关系数,并选取合理的相关系数阈值,将相依性变异程度分为无变异、弱变异、中变异、强变异、巨变异.通过推导相关系数与序列各阶自相关系数之间的公式,说明相关系数主要取决于1阶到p阶自相关系数的大小,从而阐明分级方法的理论基础.以一阶和二阶自回归模型为例,利用统计试验验证了公式的合理性,并说明了相关系数和自相关系数的联系.将所提分级方法应用于3个实测径流序列进行分析,结果显示水文过程常常存在相依性与随机性并存的现象.     

An Approach to Improve the Performance of PM Forecasters

The particulate matter (PM) concentration has been one of the most relevant environmental concerns in recent decades due to its prejudicial effects on living beings and the earth’s atmosphere. High PM concentration affects the human health in several ways leading to short and long term diseases. Thus, forecasting systems have been developed to support decisions of the organizations and governments to alert the population. Forecasting systems based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been highlighted in the literature due to their performances. In general, three ANN-based approaches have been found for this task: ANN trained via learning algorithms, hybrid systems that combine search algorithms with ANNs, and hybrid systems that combine ANN with other forecasters. Independent of the approach, it is common to suppose that the residuals (error series), obtained from the difference between actual series and forecasting, have a white noise behavior. However, it is possible that this assumption is infringed due to: misspecification of the forecasting model, complexity of the time series or temporal patterns of the phenomenon not captured by the forecaster. This paper proposes an approach to improve the performance of PM forecasters from residuals modeling. The approach analyzes the remaining residuals recursively in search of temporal patterns. At each iteration, if there are temporal patterns in the residuals, the approach generates the forecasting of the residuals in order to improve the forecasting of the PM time series. The proposed approach can be used with either only one forecaster or by combining two or more forecasting models. In this study, the approach is used to improve the performance of a hybrid system (HS) composed by genetic algorithm (GA) and ANN from residuals modeling performed by two methods, namely, ANN and own hybrid system. Experiments were performed for PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentration series in Kallio and Vallila stations in Helsinki and evaluated from six metrics. Experimental results show that the proposed approach improves the accuracy of the forecasting method in terms of fitness function for all cases, when compared with the method without correction. The correction via HS obtained a superior performance, reaching the best results in terms of fitness function and in five out of six metrics. These results also were found when a sensitivity analysis was performed varying the proportions of the sets of training, validation and test. The proposed approach reached consistent results when compared with the forecasting method without correction, showing that it can be an interesting tool for correction of PM forecasters.     

Intrinsic mode entropy based on multivariate empirical mode decomposition and its application to neural data analysis

Entropy, a measure of the regularity of a time series, has long been used to quantify the complexity of brain dynamics. Given the multiple spatiotemporal scales inherent in the brain, traditional entropy analysis based on a single scale is not adequate to accurately describe the underlying nonlinear dynamics. Intrinsic mode entropy (IMEn) is a recent development with appealing properties to estimate entropy over multiple time scales. It is a multiscale entropy measure that computes sample entropy (SampEn) over different scales of intrinsic mode functions extracted by empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method. However, it suffers from both mode-misalignment and mode-mixing problems when applied to multivariate time series data. In this paper, we address these two problems by employing the recently introduced multivariate empirical mode decomposition (MEMD). First, we extend the MEMD to multi-channel multi-trial neural data to ensure the IMEn matched at different scales. Second, for the discriminant analysis of IMEn, we propose to improve the discriminative ability by including variance that has not been used before in entropy analysis. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to the multi-electrode local field potentials (LFPs) simultaneously collected from visual cortical areas of macaque monkeys while performing a generalized flash suppression task. The results have shown that the entropy of LFP is indeed scale-dependent and is closely related to the perceptual conditions. The discriminative results of the perceptual conditions, revealed by support vector machine, show that the accuracy based on IMEn and variance reaches 83.05%, higher than that only by IMEn (76.27%). These results suggest that our approach is sensitive to capture the complex dynamics of neural data.     

Statistical modelling and forecasting annual sugarcane production in India: Using various time series models

This paper proposes a comparison of various time series forecasting models to forecast annual data on sugarcane production over 63 years from 1960 to 2022. In this research, the Mean Forecast Model, the Naive Model, the Simple Exponential Smoothing Model, Holt's model, and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average time series models have all been used to make effective and accurate predictions for sugarcane. Different scale-dependent error forecasting techniques and residual analysis have been used to examine the forecasting accuracy of these time series models. SE of Residuals, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) are used to analyse the forecast's accuracy. The best model has been selected based on the predictions with the lowest value, according to the three-performance metrics of RMSE, MAE, and AIC. The estimated sugarcane production shows an increasing trend for the next 10 years and is projected to be 37,763.38 million tonnes in the year 2032. Further, empirical results support the plan and execution of viable strategies to advance sugarcane production in India to fulfil the utilisation need of the increasing population and further improve food security.     

区域气候变化统计降尺度研究进展

统计降尺度方法(the Statistical Downscaling Methods, SDM)是为合理预测区域尺度的气候变化情景而提出的新型研究方法。统计降尺度法利用多年大气环流的观测资料建立大尺度气候要素和区域气候要素之间的统计关系,并用独立的观测资料检验这种关系的合理性。把这种关系应用于大气环流模式(Global atmospheric general circulation models, GCMs)中输出大尺度气候信息,来预估区域未来的气候变化情景(如气温和降水)。同时,10a来降尺度方法在生态过程模拟以及气候变化与生态预报关系拟合研究方面也取得一定进展。对统计降尺度方法概念的内涵和外延、基本原理和操作步骤的创新研究方面进行了综述,归纳了该方法在模拟区域气候变化中的应用进展、研究热点及发展趋势,介绍了降尺度在生态预报中的相关应用,为相关研究提供参考。