锡林郭勒盟煤电基地开发生态脆弱性评价

内蒙古锡林郭勒盟国家大型煤电基地的建设,对我国华北和华东区域能源安全具有重要的作用。但随着锡盟大型煤电基地的开发,其对锡林郭勒盟这一具有重要生态屏障功能的典型草原区的生态环境造成不利影响。通过对区域生态敏感性、生态弹性及生态压力的系统研究,建立了基于生态敏感性、生态弹性及生态压力的生态脆弱性评价模型,对该区域生态脆弱性进行了评价。结果表明,锡盟地区总体生态环境质量较好,但呈现由东北向西南递减的特征。研究为锡林郭勒盟国家大型煤电基地的开发建设,区域协调发展与生态环境保护提供理论支持。     

锡林郭勒盟生态脆弱性

以锡林郭勒盟为研究区,分析植被覆盖变化,辨析出影响暴露敏感性的主要因素,结合社会经济统计资料,构筑起以暴露敏感性和适应性能力为基础的生态脆弱性评价体系,分别借助空间主成分分析方法和主成分分析方法构建了暴露敏感性指数和适应性能力指数,获得生态脆弱性及其空间格局。结果显示:锡林郭勒盟暴露敏感性指数以西北部为中心,向四周辐射状递增,各旗县市的适应性能力指数从东北向西南递减,二者呈负相关关系。锡林郭勒盟生态脆弱性自东北向西南递增,东北部地区由于草地资源状况较好,经济发展水平相对较高,暴露敏感性较低而适应性能力较高;西南部地区因环境相对恶劣,经济发展落后,暴露敏感性较高而适应性能力较低。通过叠加分析,将研究区划分为8个生态脆弱性区域。     

社会生态系统及脆弱性驱动机制分析

生态系统与社会经济要素的相互渗透和相互作用形成了社会生态系统复合结构。"社会生态系统"(SES)理念是当今世界生态系统分析的新思路,它立足于社会生态经济综合指标,突出社会生态经济系统的整体性,以人地和谐、综合的思想,分析和解决生态和社会经济问题。社会生态系统脆弱性驱动机制分析和综合研究已成为脆弱性研究的趋势。综述了"社会生态系统"概念、结构、特征和属性,分析了社会生态系统脆弱性内涵,结合"压力-状态-响应"模型(PSR)和"暴露度-敏感性-恢复力"模型,从社会-经济-生态复合系统角度,从风险(压力)、敏感性、应对能力三方面对社会生态系统脆弱性驱动机制进行分析,最后文章对相关问题进行了讨论,并指出了脆弱性驱动机制分析的局限性,提出未来研究的展望。     

大庆市生态环境脆弱性空间格局

以石油资源开采及加工为主要扰动,从敏感性及其应对能力两个方面建立了大庆市生态环境脆弱性评价指标体系,采用改进的熵值法确定各评价指标的权重,根据脆弱性评价模型函数分析了大庆市生态环境脆弱性空间格局.结果表明： 2009年,大庆市生态环境敏感性较强区域集中分布在石油开采加工及石化产业密集区,土地盐碱化等生态问题是导致区域敏感性较高的次要原因;应对不利扰动能力的整体水平较高,在一定程度上起到了缓解生态环境脆弱性的作用;研究区脆弱性空间差异较大,其中红岗区、萨尔图区和龙凤区的脆弱性较高,脆弱度分别为0.80、0.71和0.68,让胡路区和大同区的脆弱性较低,脆弱度分别为0.20和0.04.     

2000—2018年内蒙古沙区“生态-经济-社会”复合系统脆弱性演变及关键影响因素

在气候变化和人类活动共同影响下,沙区“生态-经济-社会”复合系统快速变化,为沙漠化治理及区域可持续发展带来了严峻的挑战。因此,揭示沙区“生态-经济-社会”复合系统脆弱性演变规律,辨识影响脆弱性演化的关键因素及区域差异对沙区可持续管理具有重要意义。以内蒙古自治区为研究区,利用“暴露-敏感-适应”评估模型构建沙区“生态-经济-社会”复合系统脆弱性评价指标体系,将空间主成分分析与时空地理加权回归模型相结合,探讨2000—2018年内蒙古“生态-经济-社会”复合系统脆弱性时空演变及关键因素作用机制。结果表明：(1)脆弱性及暴露度、敏感性和适应性三个维度在空间上均有较强的异质性特征,脆弱性具有整体分散、局部聚集的分布格局;暴露度的空间分布为中部高,两边低;敏感性的空间分布为西部高,东部低;适应性的高低值分布与脆弱性相反。(2)脆弱性的变化在总体上呈现大部分区域降低,局部区域升高的趋势,显著升高区域主要聚集在内蒙古南部地区。(3)影响脆弱性分布的因素在每年均有所不同,但总体上植被覆盖度、沙漠化程度、气象指数等生态指标是影响脆弱性显著变化区域的主要因素。     

基于景观格局和生态敏感性的海南西部地区生态脆弱性分析

以海南岛西部地区为研究对象,选取分离度、分形维数、破碎度3个景观格局指标和土地沙化、土壤侵蚀2个敏感性指数,构建景观类型脆弱度和区域生态脆弱度模型,从景观格局与生态系统敏感性相结合角度探讨了区域生态环境脆弱性问题。结果表明：（1）研究区耕地的景观类型脆弱度最大,林地次之,水域最小;（2）相关分析显示,景观类型脆弱度与沙化敏感性、景观类型脆弱度与破碎度、破碎度与土地沙化敏感性、破碎度与区域生态环境脆弱性之间存在着显著和极显著的正相关关系;（3）区域生态环境脆弱性分区的空间分布与客观实际吻合良好,表现为：水平方向上,生态脆弱度大体平行于海岸线,呈条带状分布,离海岸线的距离越近脆弱度值越高;垂直方向上,生态脆弱度具有随海拔增高坡度变大而出现增大的趋势;（4）格局指数与区域生态环境脆弱性驱动力间的关联分析,表明琼西区域景观特征和区域生态环境脆弱性的变化主要受人类活动所调控,同时,还受控于海洋和地貌两大自然因素。区域生态脆弱性格局指标与脆弱性驱动力之间有着良好的信息反馈联系;（5）从景观视角出发,建立起景观信息与区域生态环境响应之间的联系,可以从更广、更高层面上来分析与评价区域环境问题,并为区域生态环境的建设提供新的研究方法和思路及有益的实践指导。     

基于潜在植被的中国陆地生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性定量评价

 陆地生态系统对气候变化的响应及其脆弱性评价研究是当前全球变化领域的重要内容之一。该研究在生态系统过程模型的基础上,耦合了潜在 植被对气候变化的动态响应,模拟气候变化对潜在植被分布格局和生态系统主要功能的影响,以潜在植被的变化次数和变化方 向定义植被分布 对气候变化的敏感性和适应性,以生态系统功能特征量的年际变率及其变化趋势定义生态系统功能对气候变化的敏感性和适应性,进而对生态 系统的脆弱性进行定量评价,分析不同气候条件下我国陆地生态系统的脆弱性分布格局及其区域特点。结果表明,我国自然生态系统气候脆弱 性的总体特点为南低北高、东低西高,气候变化将会增加系统的脆弱性。采用政府间气候变化委员会排放情景特别报告国内和区域资源情景, 即IPCC-SRES-A2气候情景进行的预测模拟表明,到21世纪末我国不脆弱的生态系统比例将减少22%左右,高度脆弱和极度脆弱的生态系统所占的 比例较当前气候条件下分别减少1.3%和0.4%。气候变化对我国陆地生态系统的脆弱性分布格局影响不大。不同气候条件下,高度脆弱和极度脆 弱的自然生态系统主要分布在我国内蒙古、东北和西北等地区的生态过渡带上及荒漠-草地生态系统中。总体而言,华南及西南大部分地区的生 态系统脆弱性将随气候变化而有所增加,而华北及东北地区则有所减小。     

中国海洋渔业产业生态系统脆弱性时空演化及影响因素

海洋强国战略以及蓝色农业计划的实施亟需加强海洋渔业可持续发展。以脆弱性为切入点,采用三轴图法剖析中国海洋渔业产业结构,从敏感性、应对能力两方面构建海洋渔业产业生态系统脆弱性指标体系,运用Topsis法和障碍度模型分析2001—2015年中国海洋渔业产业生态系统脆弱性时空演变特征及其影响因素。结果表明:①2001—2015年中国海洋渔业产业结构单一且长期处于初级阶段;②时间维度上,以2008年为节点中国海洋渔业产业生态系统脆弱性呈现由小幅波动向大幅提升转变的阶段性特征;③空间维度上,中国海洋渔业产业生态系统脆弱性空间分布呈现南高北低的集群化特点,依据系统脆弱性等级演变轨迹将中国海洋渔业产业生态系统脆弱性划分为"U"型、"线性上升"型、"波浪"型、"平稳"型脆弱性演化结构;④增强海洋渔业近海海域环境整改力度、优化海洋渔业产业结构、发展远洋渔业、加强海洋灾害预警、引进先进科技设备和优秀专业人才是降低中国海洋渔业产业生态系统脆弱性的有效措施。     

三江源地区生态环境脆弱性评价

三江源地区的生态问题对全国经济和生态具有十分重要的影响,研究、分析其生态环境脆弱性具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于生态敏感性-生态恢复力-生态压力概念模型(SRP),选取了气温、降水、地形起伏度等16个评价指标,使用层次分析法(AHP)与主成分分析法相结合的手段,建立了三江源地区生态环境脆弱性评价指标体系,通过计算生态环境脆弱性指数(EEVI)对研究区生态环境进行定量分析与评价。结果表明:三江源地区生态环境以中度脆弱区为主,所占面积比例为45.55%,轻微、轻度、重度、极度脆弱区分别占总面积的5.76%、23.12%、20.14%和5.43%,重度与极重脆弱区集中分布在地形复杂的西北部裸地、低植被覆盖地带及人口、经济活动压力较大的东北部地区。     

宁东能源化工基地生态环境脆弱性评价研究

以宁东能源化工基地为研究对象, 生态环境脆弱性评价为研究目标。依据主客观因素, 利用主成分分析法选取 11 个符合宁东基地实情的评价指标, 构建生态环境脆弱性评价的 SVM 模型。将 GA 嵌入 SVM 中以优化其结构及参数, 利用 SVM 良好的泛化能力和高精度的分类性能进行评价。再利用已有的 BP-ANN 模型进行评价并加以比较分析。结果表明 : 宁东基地的生态环境脆弱性为Ⅱ级 , 属于中度脆弱 ; SVM 模型简单、通用、精度高, 可在生态环境脆弱性评价中推广应用。最后对脆弱性形成的原因进行了分析。     

区域生态环境脆弱性评价方法研究综述

随着社会经济的快速发展以及人口压力的不断增长,人类活动正越来越强烈地影响着地球的生态系统平衡,导致当前生态环境的脆弱性进一步加剧,生态环境问题越来越突出。通过对区域生态环境脆弱性评价研究相关文献资料整理,认为生态环境脆弱性是个相对的概念,受到自然地理条件因素、系统自身恢复能力、人为活动干扰因素等多重影响,是自然因素和人为因素共同作用的结果。结合生态环境脆弱性内涵表征及其评价的主要内容、评价指标选取及体系构建、评价方法及分析模型等方面的研究,分析了生态脆弱性评价研究领域的发展状况及其不同区域指标体系和评价方法的差异,讨论了在研究理论方法的创新、评价指标体系及计算模型的构建、自然因素和人为因素评判的定量分析描述、评价结果的应用研究等方面仍存在一些问题,并结合评价模型构建、数据处理分析的有效性、评价结果应用等方面分析了生态环境脆弱性评价研究的发展趋势。总体认为,区域生态环境脆弱性评价在未来研究中:研究思路需要进一步突出综合系统性;数据处理需要进一步突出时空动态性;研究方法需要进一步突出学科融合性;研究结果需要进一步突出实践应用性。     

Riparian Ecosystems in the 21st Century: Hotspots for Climate Change Adaptation?

Riparian ecosystems in the 21st century are likely to play a critical role in determining the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change, and in influencing the capacity of these systems to adapt. Some authors have suggested that riparian ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their high levels of exposure and sensitivity to climatic stimuli, and their history of degradation. Others have highlighted the probable resilience of riparian ecosystems to climate change as a result of their evolution under high levels of climatic and environmental variability. We synthesize current knowledge of the vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to climate change by assessing the potential exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of their key components and processes, as well as ecosystem functions, goods and services, to projected global climatic changes. We review key pathways for ecological and human adaptation for the maintenance, restoration and enhancement of riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services and present emerging principles for planned adaptation. Our synthesis suggests that, in the absence of adaptation, riparian ecosystems are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, given the critical role of riparian ecosystem functions in landscapes, as well as the strong links between riparian ecosystems and human well-being, considerable means, motives and opportunities for strategically planned adaptation to climate change also exist. The need for planned adaptation of and for riparian ecosystems is likely to be strengthened as the importance of many riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services will grow under a changing climate. Consequently, riparian ecosystems are likely to become adaptation ‘hotspots’ as the century unfolds.     

Long-term ecological vulnerability assessment of Indian Sundarban region under present and future climatic conditions under CMIP6 model

Vulnerability assessment of ecosystem bestows an idea about the ecosystem health and its ability to resist environmental stress. Indian Sundarban region situated at the southwest part of Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta has been under constant threat of frequent climate hazards and long-term climate change. Various attempts have been made for vulnerability assessment of this mangrove ecosystem focusing only on static non-temporal variables. The present work hypothesises that mangrove ecosystems are highly adaptive and respond to the changing environment by various natural resilience strategies at the ecosystem level. So, a better understanding of the dynamics of mangrove ecosystem will provide an idea about the state of vulnerability for this ecosystem. The present study uses 16 parameters to create exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity risk indices and constructs the vulnerability status for the Indian Sundarban. The results showed that the sea-level rise will happen between 0.7 m to 0.9 m under baseline climate conditions. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble showed that the future minimum temperature for the region will go up to 29.48 °C, thereby reducing the max and min temperature difference for the region. The fuzzy AHP-based vulnerability assessment revealed that the western Sundarban is more prone to climate vulnerability. The island-like Surendranagar, Lothian, and West-Ajmalmari are extremely vulnerable. The proximity to human habitat will play an important role in climate change sensitivity to the Sundarban region. The time series analysis of mangrove forests showed the Mann-Kendall ‘τ’ value varies between 0.82 to −0.83. The central Sundarban forests area shows a varying degree of forest health deterioration. The assessments from the present study and the maps will help the environmental and risk-managers to identify the regions needing more climate change adaptation strategy.     

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Climate change has far‐reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short‐term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.     

海南岛生态环境脆弱性评价

基于SOPAC和UNEP所建立的环境脆弱性评价方法,从风险、抵抗力、损害与退化3个方面构建了指标体系和综合指数,对海南岛生态环境脆弱性进行了评价.结果表明：海南岛的生态环境风险处于中等水平,其风险主要源于高强度的人类活动,包括强化农业、大众旅游业、采矿业以及岛上居民和游客所排放的大量固体废弃物等;较大的土地面积、较大的海拔变化幅度、完整的地理板块及丰富的生境类型等自然地理特征,赋予了海南岛较强的生态环境风险抵抗力,但受历史上人为和自然风险的累积影响,海南岛生态系统的损害与退化已较为严重,主要体现在土地退化和生物多样性的丧失等方面;综合考虑风险、抵抗力和损害与退化三方面因素,海南岛生态环境综合脆弱性处于中等水平,部分指标表现出很低的脆弱性,但另一些指标却表现出很高的脆弱性.     

Environmental vulnerability evaluation using a spatial principal components approach in the Daxing’anling region,China

Identifying environmentally vulnerable regions is an important aspect of forest resource management, especially in boreal forest ecosystems that exhibit sensitivity to climate change. In this study, an environmental vulnerability index was constructed to describe the vulnerability status of the ecosystem in the Daxing’anling region, Heilongjiang Province, China. Thirteen variables related to exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the ecosystem were selected and integrated into a comprehensive index using spatial principal component analysis. The vulnerability within each part of the study area was then classified into one of five levels, including potential, slight, light, medium and heavy vulnerability, based on the numerical values. Results showed that the degree of vulnerability was unevenly distributed throughout the Daxing’anling region. The highest environmental vulnerability index value was approximately 0.86 in the southern and central areas, suggesting that these regions are the most vulnerable to environmental changes. The lowest value was approximately 0.036 in the eastern region, which indicates a relatively high-quality environment that is less vulnerable to environmental changes. The results of the environmental vulnerability evaluation may be helpful for decision makers by providing a comparatively rational decision making tool for planning and implementing effective forest resource management.     

基于GIS的长江口海域生态系统脆弱性综合评价

气候变化、富营养化、生境破碎等是全球普遍面临的生态问题,科学评估生态系统外部压力及其弹性力,对生态系统管理和生态修复具有重要的指导意义。使用空间主成分分析(SPCA)和层次分析法(AHP)构建评价指标体系,结合地理信息系统软件,对长江口海域生态环境脆弱性进行综合评价,并根据生态环境脆弱性指数(EVI)值,将研究区生态环境脆弱性分为5级:微度脆弱(0.5)、轻度脆弱(0.5—0.8)、中度脆弱(0.8—1.0)、重度脆弱(1.0—1.2)、极度脆弱(1.2—1.5)。结果表明:空间尺度上,长江口口门内生态环境脆弱度最高,生态环境脆弱度从口门内向口门外呈显著的降低趋势,近五年,口门内极度脆弱区空间分布南移;评估区域内,约2000 km~2的极度脆弱区发生了转变,极度脆弱区、重度脆弱区面积占比分别下降了7%和5%,长江口海域生态环境脆弱性明显好转。总体上,近年来大量陆源污染物输入以及生态系统结构变化,是导致长江口生态环境脆弱度较高的重要因素。     

基于格网的南昌市生态环境脆弱性评价

科学评价生态环境的脆弱性,对合理利用土地资源和促进区域生态安全具有重要意义。以公里格网为基本评价单元,以快速城市化区域典型代表南昌市为研究区,通过SRP概念模型构建评价指标体系并选取17个评价指标,基于空间主成分分析法、全局Moran′s I指数以及LISA聚类图,量化分析了2000—2015年南昌市生态环境脆弱性的时空分布特征及驱动力。结果表明:(1)2000—2015年南昌市生态环境脆弱性呈现由轻度脆弱向中度脆弱演变的趋势;(2)2000—2015年南昌市各县(区)生态环境脆弱性差异明显,东湖区、西湖区、青山湖区、青云谱区、湾里区脆弱性程度最高,其他县(区)脆弱性增幅较大;(3)2000和2015年南昌市生态环境脆弱性具有明显的空间自相关性,且为正相关,高高聚集区主要分布在极度脆弱区,低低聚集区与微度和轻度脆弱区相关;(4)研究时段内,南昌市生态环境脆弱性主要驱动力为人口密度、人均GDP、人均耕地、坡度、地形起伏度、年均气温、极端最高温、极端最低温、年均降水量。     

Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change

Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local‐scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio‐economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience‐Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press‐type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse‐type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown‐of‐thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo‐Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on‐the‐ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on actions that support resilience at finer spatial scales, and that are tightly linked to ecosystem goods and services.     

厦门市土地利用变化下的生态敏感性

当前,城市化与全球变化背景叠加,海岸带生态系统发生了巨大的变化,沿海城市在全球变化下的脆弱性、敏感性与适应能力等问题已经成为政府和科学界关注的重要问题.土地利用变化是导致生态系统敏感性的重要因素之一.以厦门市作为沿海城市的典型代表,对近20 a土地利用变化下的生态敏感性进行系统研究.分析了城市建设用地扩张、围填海等主要土地利用活动对生态敏感性的影响机制;其次建立土地利用变化下的生态敏感性指数,并分析其变化过程;最后通过ArcGIS图层叠加计算功能,获得生态敏感性空间分布状况.结果表明:1987-2007年厦门市城市建设用地面积由1987年的67.48 km2,增加为2007年的308.21 km2,扩张了4.57倍,主要为蚕食农业用地和林地而来;海岸线长度由1987年的290.19 km,增加为1992年的343.23 km,而后减小为2007年的299.93 km,围垦养殖活动使得岸线变得曲折,填海造地活动导致岸线变得平滑.厦门市土地利用强度由1987年的2.44逐年增加为2007年的2.52,生态系统服务价值总体呈现减小的趋势,由1987年的7.39×109元减少到2007年的7.02× 109元,土地利用强度与生态系统服务价值呈现负相关关系.土地利用变化下的生态敏感性指数由1992年的1.50增加为1997年的4.94,而后减小为2002年的4.12,再增加为2007年的4.47.整体而言,近20a来厦门市生态系统对土地利用变化的敏感性灵敏响应程度不很剧烈,生态敏感性高的区域主要位于沿海区域.