SWAT模型融雪模块的改进

SWAT模型是一个具有物理基础的分布式水文模型,利用SCS径流曲线数方法计算地表径流,而采用相对简单的度日因子方法计算融雪径流。因此在湿润半湿润、雨量丰富的平原地区应用SWAT模型进行径流模拟时可以得到较好的模拟结果,但是在干旱半干旱、降水稀少,且春汛期间融雪径流是重要补给来源的高寒山区,模拟的融雪径流明显偏小,不能很好的反映这些地区的融雪过程,导致河道径流模拟精度偏低。FASST模型是具有物理机制的陆面过程模型,其采用能量平衡的方法计算融雪径流,能够较好的模拟复杂地形山区流域的融雪径流。本文以黑河山区流域为研究区,将FASST模型集成到SWAT模型,改善SWAT模型融雪径流的计算方法。通过对比SWAT模型集成前后莺落峡出山口的河道月径流、融雪径流和地表径流对河道的贡献等几个方面,表明了集成FASST融雪模块的SWAT模型能更好的反映黑河山区流域的融雪径流过程,从而提高河道径流的整体模拟精度。     

基于WaSSI模型的珠江流域水-碳耦合模拟

流域水循环和碳循环通过植物光合作用与蒸散发(ET)过程紧密相联,两者在流域尺度上的耦合模拟研究是实现水、碳资源综合管理的重要基础。本研究通过对WaSSI(供水压力指数)生态水文模型进行适当改进,建立并验证了珠江流域水-碳耦合模拟模型(WaSSI-PRB),将珠江流域划分为1715个子流域,选定1980—2004年为率定期、2005—2016年为验证期,并对径流、蒸散发和总初级生产力(GPP)等3个关键水-碳通量的模拟结果进行验证。结果表明: 西江、北江、东江的水文控制站,径流模拟纳什效率系数(NSE)和决定系数(R²)在率定期均达0.80以上,在验证期均达0.75以上;相较于MODIS、PML、SSEBop、VPM等大尺度遥感数据产品,WaSSI-PRB模型能更好地模拟ET和GPP的时空分布特征。总体而言,WaSSI-PRB模型在珠江流域具有较好的适用性,可作为量化分析流域水-碳平衡及其对变化环境响应关系的一种有效工具。     

黄土高原生物结皮对SCS-CN模型初损率的影响

水文模型是水文过程研究的有效工具,初损率(λ)是径流模型SCS-CN模型的参数,对模拟流域水文过程具有重要意义。为了确定生物结皮对λ的影响,提高该模型在黄土高原生物结皮广泛分布的退耕地的预测精度,本研究以陕西省定边县鹰窝山涧流域不同盖度的生物结皮坡面为对象,采用模拟降雨试验,分析土壤潜在最大入渗量(S)与实际入渗量(F)的关系,以及生物结皮盖度对λ的影响,并修订了λ;在此基础上,采用陕西省安塞县纸坊沟流域生物结皮径流小区的模拟降雨试验数据校验了参数修订后的模型。结果表明: 生物结皮坡面S与F的关系式为: S/F=2.5×60/T(其中T为降雨历时);模型参数λ与生物结皮盖度(C_BSC)呈极显著负相关关系,二者关系式为: λ=0.0791×e^{(-0.015×C_BSC}),R²=0.60;较λ取标准值,依生物结皮盖度修订λ后,SCS-CN模型Nash效率系数提高338.7%,合格率提升16.1%。研究结果为黄土高原生物结皮坡面λ的确定提供了科学依据,对准确评估黄土高原退耕还林(草)工程的水文效应具有重要意义。     

基于SCS-CN模型的沟垄微型集雨系统径流预测

地表径流是引起土壤侵蚀的主要动力,控制水土流失和提高降水资源利用效率是半干旱区农业可持续发展的关键因素。本研究利用沟垄微型集雨径流场实测径流资料,基于SCS-CN模型,结合下垫面、降雨量等信息,分析模型参数(径流曲线数CN和初损系数λ)的敏感性,测定不同沟垄比和不同覆盖材料对模型参数的影响,提出适合沟垄微型集雨系统产流计算的参数值,并对其进行模拟验证及有效性分析。结果表明,初损系数λ是影响模型模拟的主要因子,试验沟垄比对模型参数率定的影响较小;该模型所模拟的径流量与实测径流量具有较好的一致性,土垄、普通塑料膜垄和生物可降解膜垄的有效性系数分别为0.864、0.988和0.947,说明模型在参数的确定上较为合理,可应用于沟垄微型集雨系统降雨径流的预测,为半干旱区控制水土流失和提高降水资源利用效率提供科学方法。     

流域水碳过程耦合模拟——WaSSI-C模型的率定与检验

在复杂的气候变化条件下, 利用水碳耦合模型进行生态水文学研究成为主要的研究手段和途径。该文以杂谷脑河上游流域为例, 在确定生态水文模型WaSSI-C模拟尺度的基础上, 探讨水碳耦合模型在中国西南湿润地区的适用性。杂古脑河上游流域位于岷江上游, 隶属于长江流域。在分析和讨论了模型结构和机理的基础上, 分别对模型蒸散和融雪计算进行了补充改进, 以提高模型的适用性。将1988-1996年作为模型的率定期, 1997-2006年作为模型的验证期, 分别在率定期和验证期利用实测的径流数据和中分辨率成像光谱仪数据的总初级生产力、蒸散(ET)数据, 对模拟结果进行对比验证。并利用决定系数(R²)和Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NS)两个指标对模拟效果进行评价。流域总径流率定期和验证期对比验证的R²分别为0.86和0.78; NS分别为0.82和0.67。总生态系统生产力和ET验证期的R²分别为0.89和0.78。可见模型模拟结果的两个评价指标都处于较为理想的区间内, 说明WaSSI-C模型在研究区内具有较好的适用性。并对模型的蒸散计算方法进行了讨论, 在此基础上提出了模型中存在的问题和改进的方向。     

昆明市明通河流域降雨径流水量水质SWMM模型模拟

选取昆明市明通河流域为研究区域,在暴雨管理模型(SWMM模型)参数敏感性分析、模型率定的基础上,对明通河流域进行了降雨径流水量水质模拟。结果表明:SWMM模型水文水力模块中最灵敏参数为不透水率,水质模块中污染物最大累积量、污染物累积速率均为灵敏参数,而冲刷系数和冲刷指数的灵敏度受降雨强度影响波动较大。水量水质模拟结果与实测结果较为吻合,模型率定取得了满意的结果。模拟结果显示,研究区降雨径流总氮、总磷、化学需氧量单位面积负荷率分别为75.6、8.5、697.8 kg hm-2a-1,城市降雨径流污染在滇池流域面源污染中占有较大份额。     

浑太森林流域径流过程模拟

基于浑河与太子河上游1998-2007年北口前站和南甸峪站水文数据以及清原、新宾和本溪县气象站点同期气象数据,应用DHSVM分布式水文模型模拟浑太流域的水文过程,验证模型的科学适用性,并提供最敏感模型参数的参考值.结果表明：浑河源区月径流模拟的Nash-Suttclife系数(E值)在率定期(1998-2002年)和验证期(2003-2007年)分别达到0.9675和0.8957,较好重现了研究区的月径流过程.太子河上游流域的年、月径流模拟值的E值均大于0.6,说明模型在浑太流域有较好的适用性、率定的参数方案有良好的可靠性.本文为无站点观测资料的流域水文研究建立了一个坚实的框架,并构建了合理的参数方案.     

基于CMDAS驱动SWAT模式的精博河流域水文相关分量模拟、验证及分析

利用大气和水文模型定量描述陆表相关变量变化规律一直是大气科学和水文学界的研究热点。然而,由于我国西部地区站点匮乏,传统气象观测站点已不能满足大尺度地表分量高精度模拟分析的需求。建立SWAT模型中国大气同化驱动数据集(China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the SWAT model,CMADS)驱动SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型(简称为CMADS+SWAT模式),选取传统气象站点稀缺的新疆精博河流域为靶区,完成流域各地表分量(如土壤湿度、雪深、融雪)校准、验证及其时空关系提取与分析。分析发现:CMADS数据集可很好地驱动、率定SWAT模式完成本地化工作。其中,CMADS+SWAT模式在月尺度上总体NSE效率系数均在0.659—0.942,日尺度也均在0.526—0.815。对流域内土壤湿度和融雪过程进行相关分析发现:精博河流域土壤湿度在年内3—4月份达到其第一次峰值,主要贡献来自于流域内高山融雪现象;融雪期结束后,流域降水量增加,伴随气温上升等现象导致土壤温度呈现波动态势,至10月中旬冷空气过境产生较大降水(雪),最终使土壤水转变为冻土,直至次年接近融雪期,土壤水再次增加直到融雪过程结束。一方面证明CMADS+SWAT模式可有效提高SWAT水文模型在我国西北干旱区(站点稀缺区域)的表现能力,另一方面理清了精博河流域相关地表分量(土壤湿度、蒸发等)时空演变规律。本研究对我国大气水文学科发展将起到一定的科学促进作用。     

基于植被和环境因子的亚高山森林土壤水源涵养功能空间尺度上推模型构建——以岷江上游杂谷脑流域为例

土壤层水源涵养功能是森林水源涵养功能的主体。目前关于森林土壤水源涵养功能的研究主要集中在林地或坡面尺度上。由于流域尺度,尤其是环境空间异质性强的西南亚高山区流域,如何将林地尺度实测结果上推至流域或更大空间尺度仍是生态水文领域面临的巨大挑战之一。以川西岷江上游杂谷脑流域为研究对象,融合多种森林类型样地实测与流域尺度多源遥感数据,构建了基于植被和环境因子的林地-流域森林土壤水源涵养功能尺度转换模型,实现了流域尺度土壤水源涵养功能快速评价及其空间分布预测。样地尺度研究结果表明各类型森林的土壤水文特性各异,总体表现为天然林优于人工林,混交林优于单纯林。林地土壤持水能力受到区域气候、植被、土壤及地形等因子的共同影响,其中风速、NDVI及林龄与土壤最大持水量、毛管持水量及非毛管持水量均呈极显著正相关（P<0.01）。基于关键植被和环境因子构建的林地-流域土壤水源涵养功能尺度上推模型精度较高,土壤最大持水量、土壤毛管持水量和土壤非毛管持水量模型拟合优度R²分别为0.700、0.720和0.908;土壤最大持水量、土壤毛管持水量和土壤非毛管持水量的模型预测值与野外实测值的相关系数介于0.69-0.79之间,平均误差均低于20%,表明模型预测结果可靠。利用构建的土壤水源涵养功能尺度上推模型,估算得出流域尺度森林土壤持水量的空间分布,其结果表明杂谷脑流域森林土壤持水量空间分异明显,海拔较高区域森林土壤持水量最高,其次为距道路和河流有一定距离的缓坡地带,下游干旱河谷地区土壤持水量最低。本研究为亚高山森林生态功能的恢复和提升提供了科学依据和评价工具。     

高山峡谷地区森林流域分布式降雨-径流模型的构建与验证

根据岷江上游杂谷脑河流域典型的高山峡谷地区主要水文特点,选择通用性较强的水文过程模式,构建高山峡谷地区森林流域分布式降雨-径流过程模型,避免过多复杂的区域性模型参数率定,保证模型在相似地区的可移植性;并选择杂谷脑水文站上游地区进行降雨-径流过程模拟,得到1999年和2000年模拟时段长度为1000 h的两个径流过程,对模拟与实测的径流过程、累积径流量、洪峰流量与峰现时间等进行比较,其拟合效果较好.该模型结构简单,引入的经验参数较少,可推广应用到其它尺度流域.     

Assessing the Role of Parameter and Input Uncertainty in Ecohydrologic Modeling: Implications for a Semi-arid and Urbanizing Coastal California Catchment

Ecohydrologic models are a key tool in understanding plant–water interactions and their vulnerability to environmental change. Although implications of uncertainty in these models are often assessed within a strictly hydrologic context (for example, runoff modeling), the implications of uncertainty for estimation of vegetation water use are less frequently considered. We assess the influence of commonly used model parameters and inputs on predictions of catchment-scale evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff. By clarifying the implications of uncertainty, we identify strategies for insuring that the quality of data used to drive models is considered in interpretation of model predictions. Our assessment also provides insight into unique features of semi-arid, urbanizing watersheds that shape ET patterns. We consider four sources of uncertainty: soil parameters, irrigation inputs, and spatial extrapolation of both point precipitation and air temperature for an urbanizing, semi-arid coastal catchment in Santa Barbara, CA. Our results highlight a seasonal transition from soil parameters to irrigation inputs as key controls on ET. Both ET and runoff show substantial sensitivity to uncertainty in soil parameters, even after parameters have been calibrated against observed streamflow. Sensitivity to uncertainty in precipitation manifested primarily in winter runoff predictions, whereas sensitivity to irrigation manifested exclusively in modeled summer ET. Neither ET nor runoff was highly sensitive to uncertainty in spatial interpolation of temperature. Results argue that efforts to improve ecohydrologic modeling of vegetation water use and associated water-limited ecological processes in these semi-arid regions should focus on improving estimates of anthropogenic outdoor water use and explicit accounting of soil parameter uncertainty.     

Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow and Subbasin-Scale Hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21^st century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21^st century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of −100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of −100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could significantly decline with adverse consequences for water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystem health.     

干旱半干旱区灌丛斑块与降水量响应关系的熵模型模拟

灌丛斑块分布格局是灌木在干旱缺水条件下对生存环境的自我调节和适应的具体表现。应用熵理论和Klausmier模型,解释了灌丛斑块水分聚集原理并模拟了不同年降水条件下灌丛斑块的最佳面积比值(即最佳灌丛盖度)。研究结果表明:灌丛斑块生物量与其土壤含水量呈反比例函数关系,当生态系统处于稳定状态时(即熵最大状况下),年降水量与灌丛斑块面积比值符合一定的线性关系。研究采用内蒙古草原地区的野外调查数据,获得模型所需参数,进而模拟了不同年降水量条件下灌丛斑块最佳面积比值,研究结果可为半干旱地区植被保护与恢复提供参考。     

基于SCS-CN模型的黄土高原丘陵区坡地微型集雨垄垄面径流量预测

为了探寻我国黄土高原丘陵区坡地垄沟集雨种植控制水土流失和增产机理,本研究利用试验期2019年坡地微型集雨垄收集的19次降雨-径流资料,率定不同坡度(0°、5°和10°)微型集雨垄SCS-CN模型的径流曲线数CN值和初损系数λ值,利用5次降雨-径流资料检验模型的有效性.结果 表明:自然降雨条件下,坡地微型集雨垄径流量随坡...     

半干旱区垄沟集雨系统点尺度土壤水分动态随机模拟

为揭示土壤水分动态对半干旱区垄沟集雨系统水文和生态过程的影响机理,基于Laio土壤水分动态随机模型(Laio模型),利用中国气象局定西干旱气象与生态环境试验基地2012—2013年垄沟集雨燕麦生长季根系层土壤水分观测数据及2000—2015年日降水资料,分析不同覆盖材料(生物可降解膜、普通塑料膜和土壤结皮)和不同沟垄比(30∶60,45∶60和60∶60cm)对生长季燕麦根系层土壤水分动态的影响,研究点尺度土壤水分概率密度函数特征,并对模型涉及参数进行敏感性分析。结果表明:研究区年降水的季节分配极不均匀,主要集中在5—10月份,占总降雨次数的66.6%;年降雨量的85.32%来源于10 mm的降雨,以暴雨为主;近16年研究区降水量呈缓慢增长趋势。生物可降解膜垄(BMR)、普通地膜垄(CMR)和土垄(SR)临界产流降雨量分别为1.35、0.95 mm和5.31 mm,平均集水效率分别为87.892%、94.203%和27.488%;在燕麦生长季,BMR和CMR的土壤含水量显著大于SR,SR的土壤含水量显著大于传统平作,各处理土壤含水量均服从正态分布;通过Laio模型模拟得到的各处理土壤水分概率密度函数的曲线特征(峰值及其位置、90%置信区间)及数字特征(期望、方差)与观测结果基本一致,CM指数均大于0.5,且可将集雨垄径流量作为单次降水的随机事件处理,说明该模型可应用于垄沟集雨系统土壤水分概率密度函数的模拟,为半干旱区农田水分高效利用管理提供理论依据。     

Earlier leaf senescence dates are constrained by soil moisture

The unprecedented warming that has occurred in recent decades has led to later autumn leaf senescence dates (LSD) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Yet, great uncertainties still exist regarding the strength of these delaying trends, especially in terms of how soil moisture affects them. Here we show that changes in soil moisture in 1982–2015 had a substantial impact on autumn LSD in one-fifth of the vegetated areas in the Northern Hemisphere (>30° N), and how it contributed more to LSD variability than either temperature, precipitation or radiation. We developed a new model based on soil-moisture-constrained cooling degree days (CDD_SM) to characterize the effects of soil moisture on LSD and compared its performance with the CDD, Delpierre and spring-influenced autumn models. We show that the CDD_SM model with inputs of temperature and soil moisture outperformed the three other models for LSD modelling and had an overall higher correlation coefficient (R), a lower root mean square error and lower Akaike information criterion (AIC) between observations and model predictions. These improvements were particularly evident in arid and semi-arid regions. We studied future LSD using the CDD_SM model under two scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) and found that predicted LSD was 4.1 ± 1.4 days and 5.8 ± 2.8 days earlier under SSP126 and SSP585, respectively, than other models for the end of this century. Our study therefore reveals the importance of soil moisture in regulating autumn LSD and, in particular, highlights how coupling this effect with LSD models can improve simulations of the response of vegetation phenology to future climate change.     

Provisioning of bioavailable carbon between the wet and dry phases in a semi-arid floodplain

Ecosystem functioning on arid and semi-arid floodplains may be described by two alternate traditional paradigms. The pulse-reserve model suggests that rainfall is the main driver of plant growth and subsequent carbon and energy reserve formation in the soil of arid and semi-arid regions. The flood pulse concept suggests that periodic flooding facilitates the two-way transfer of materials between a river and its adjacent floodplain, but focuses mainly on the period when the floodplain is inundated. We compared the effects of both rainfall and flooding on soil moisture and carbon in a semi-arid floodplain to determine the relative importance of each for soil moisture recharge and the generation of a bioavailable organic carbon reserve that can potentially be utilised during the dry phase. Flooding, not rainfall, made a substantial contribution to moisture in the soil profile. Furthermore, the growth of aquatic macrophytes during the wet phase produced at least an order of magnitude more organic material than rainfall-induced pulse-reserve responses during the dry phase, and remained as recognizable soil carbon for years following flood recession. These observations have led us to extend existing paradigms to encompass the reciprocal provisioning of carbon between the wet and dry phases on the floodplain, whereby, in addition to carbon fixed during the dry phase being important for driving biogeochemical transformations upon return of the next wet phase, aquatic macrophyte carbon fixed during the wet phase is recognized as an important source of energy for the dry phase. Reciprocal provisioning presents a conceptual framework on which to formulate questions about the resistance and ecosystem resilience of arid and semi-arid floodplains in the face of threats like climate change and alterations to flood regimes.     

环境因素对干旱半干旱区凋落物分解的影响研究进展

凋落物分解是干旱半干旱区重要的生化过程,也是区域内物质周转与能量流动的关键生态环节,主要受气候、凋落物基质质量（简称凋落物质量）和土壤生物群落等因素的综合影响.本文综合评述了非生物因素(温度、降水、光辐射、土壤有机质等)和生物因素(凋落物质量、土壤微生物、种群组成和群落结构等)对干旱半干旱地区凋落物分解的影响的相关研究进展.在诸多影响因素中,降水与光辐射是最重要的限制因素.降水能够在短期内使凋落物分解速率迅速增加,而干旱半干旱区光照强度大、时间长,UV B引起的光矿化效应能较好地解释区域内凋落物分解规律.凋落物质量和群落结构主要受生态系统类型的影响,属于长期效应.今后凋落物生态研究的重点主要为全球气候变化下各环境因素的交互作用,不同尺度下凋落物分解过程与格局的变化,以及多因素交互作用凋落物分解模型的构建等方面.