Detecting early‐warning signals of influenza outbreak based on dynamic network marker

The seasonal outbreaks of influenza infection cause globally respiratory illness, or even death in all age groups. Given early‐warning signals preceding the influenza outbreak, timely intervention such as vaccination and isolation management effectively decrease the morbidity. However, it is usually a difficult task to achieve the real‐time prediction of influenza outbreak due to its complexity intertwining both biological systems and social systems. By exploring rich dynamical and high‐dimensional information, our dynamic network marker/biomarker (DNM/DNB) method opens a new way to identify the tipping point prior to the catastrophic transition into an influenza pandemics. In order to detect the early‐warning signals before the influenza outbreak by applying DNM method, the historical information of clinic hospitalization caused by influenza infection between years 2009 and 2016 were extracted and assembled from public records of Tokyo and Hokkaido, Japan. The early‐warning signal, with an average of 4‐week window lead prior to each seasonal outbreak of influenza, was provided by DNM‐based on the hospitalization records, providing an opportunity to apply proactive strategies to prevent or delay the onset of influenza outbreak. Moreover, the study on the dynamical changes of hospitalization in local district networks unveils the influenza transmission dynamics or landscape in network level.     

Phytoplankton equilibrium phases during thermal stratification in a deep subtropical reservoir

1. Equilibrium and non-equilibrium hypotheses have often been used to explain observations in community ecology. Published case studies have demonstrated that steady state phytoplankton assemblages are more likely to occur in deep lakes than in shallow mixed ones.
2. Phytoplankton seasonal succession was studied by weekly sampling in Faxinal Reservoir (S Brazil), a subtropical deep, clear, warm monomictic and slightly eutrophic reservoir. This study demonstrated an alternation of steady and non-steady state phases of phytoplankton assemblages with different dominant species during the steady states.
3. During the studied period, three steady states were identified with different dominant algal species: Anabaena crassa (Cyanobacteria), Nephrocytium sp. (green algae) and Asterionella (diatoms).
4. Each steady state in Faxinal Reservoir developed under stratified conditions of the water column according to the predictions of the disturbance concepts. Apparently, the major forces driving the development and persistence of these steady-state phases were closely related to thermal stratification and its consequences.
5. This study is the first report on development of more than one steady state within a year in a stratified water body. The development of three steady states might be the result of the relatively long stratification period in the Faxinal Reservoir and to its unique geochemical features.     

The comprehensive differentiated protection against influenza and acute respiratory diseases of medical workers in industrial enterprises]

Acute diseases of the respiratory organs rank first among temporary invalidity causes (30.5%). For the first time workers of a health center of an industrial enterprise were protected from influenza and ARVI during an epidemic outbreak of influenza A by specific and nonspecific protection means with due consideration for the subject's health status and will. Comprehensive differentiated protection from influenza and ARVI proved highly effective, its index reaching 2.5 and the invalidity periods being shorter by 2.4-4 days.     

Preliminary Success in the Characterization and Management of a Sudden Breakout of a Novel H7N9 Influenza A Virus

Influenza has always been one of the major threats to human health. The Spanish influenza in 1918, the pandemic influenza A/H1N1 in 2009, and the avian influenza A/H5N1 have brought about great disasters or losses to mankind. More recently, a novel avian influenza A/H7N9 broke out in China and until December 2, 2013, it had caused 139 cases of infection, including 45 deaths. Its risk and pandemic potential attract worldwide attention. In this article, we summarize epidemiology, virology characteristics, clinical symptoms, diagnosis methods, clinical treatment and preventive measures about the avian influenza A/H7N9 virus infection to provide a reference for a possible next wave of flu outbreak.     

马尾松林节肢动物群落的稳定性

依据广西大青山马尾松林区马尾松毛虫一个暴发周期中食叶、捕食、寄生、刺吸四大类群多样性指数(H′)、丰富度指数(MD)、均匀度指数(J)和害虫与天敌的数量比例的数据,建立突变模型对马尾松林节肢动物群落的稳定性进行研究,并利用湖南桂阳数据对模型进行了检验.结果表明:在马尾松毛虫的整个暴发过程中,暴发区在暴发年的昆虫生物群落处于明显的不稳定状态,而在非暴发年时,群落则处于亚稳定的状态;非暴发区在暴发年处于亚稳定的状态,非暴发年时处于稳定状态.在松毛虫各个发生阶段,当上升期处于不稳定状态时,有可能导致松毛虫的大发生;松毛虫暴发后,节肢动物群落依旧处于不稳定状态,有可能会造成松毛虫的连续暴发,这主要依赖于各种因子的影响.马尾松毛虫暴发呈现非线性、突变性等特点,食叶类群的影响为马尾松毛虫暴发的关键因子,各类群作用均衡的系统比较稳定,虫害暴发是群落结构趋稳调节过程中的强烈外部表现.研究表明,突变模型在检测群落结构稳定性和预测松毛虫发生上有很好的应用前景.     

禽流感与猪流感病毒：跨越物种传播的新认识

今年在墨西哥暴发的流感疫情来源于一种新的流感病毒：甲型H1N1病毒．这种病毒包括人源,禽源和猪源等甲型流感病毒基因片段,为混合毒株．比较了禽、猪和人的流感病毒在其天然宿主中的致病机理,主要目的是评估猪和禽的流感病毒成为人兽共患病的可能性,同时还评估猪在禽流感病毒传入人的过程中可能起到的作用．禽流感和猪流感作为人畜共患疾病,在流感病毒从动物到人的传播过程中起到关键的作用．猪作为流感病毒的中间宿主,具有混合器作用,人、猪、禽流感病毒可在其体内进行基因重排产生新病毒,并可能跨越种间屏障感染人类．但是流感病毒本身的跨越种间障碍传播不足以引起人流感的大暴发,动物流感病毒必须经过显著的遗传变异后才能使其在人群中长期存在．     

新世纪流感大流行的思考

2009年从墨西哥开始暴发了一场席卷全世界的流感疫情．此次大流行的毒株,甲型H1N1病毒,包含了猪源、禽源和人源流感病毒的基因片段．研究该毒株的基因重配、进化历程及其生物学特性,将对防控此次流行具有重要意义．目前,该毒株的遗传进化关系已明确,通过遗传性状分析可获知该毒株可能的生物学性状,但流感大流行动向、毒株遗传变化、毒力及致病性变化仍在密切监控中．流感病毒生态系统具有复杂性,其基因组易突变、易重配、易在自然宿主保存,使得流感大流行存在一定的必然性．正视流感大流行的威胁,积极提高流感病毒在生态系统中的监控,加强流行病学调查,发展疫苗与药物,建立有效公共卫生保障体系,才能降低流感大流行的破坏性．     

Age as a determinant for dissemination of seasonal and pandemic influenza: an open cohort study of influenza outbreaks in Östergötland County, Sweden

An understanding of the occurrence and comparative timing of influenza infections in different age groups is important for developing community response and disease control measures. This study uses data from a Scandinavian county (population 427.000) to investigate whether age was a determinant for being diagnosed with influenza 2005-2010 and to examine if age was associated with case timing during outbreaks. Aggregated demographic data were collected from Statistics Sweden, while influenza case data were collected from a county-wide electronic health record system. A logistic regression analysis was used to explore whether case risk was associated with age and outbreak. An analysis of variance was used to explore whether day for diagnosis was also associated to age and outbreak. The clinical case data were validated against case data from microbiological laboratories during one control year. The proportion of cases from the age groups 10-19 (p<0.001) and 20-29 years old (p<0.01) were found to be larger during the A pH1N1 outbreak in 2009 than during the seasonal outbreaks. An interaction between age and outbreak was observed (p<0.001) indicating a difference in age effects between circulating virus types; this interaction persisted for seasonal outbreaks only (p<0.001). The outbreaks also differed regarding when the age groups received their diagnosis (p<0.001). A post-hoc analysis showed a tendency for the young age groups, in particular the group 10-19 year olds, led outbreaks with influenza type A H1 circulating, while A H3N2 outbreaks displayed little variations in timing. The validation analysis showed a strong correlation (r = 0.625;p<0.001) between the recorded numbers of clinically and microbiologically defined influenza cases. Our findings demonstrate the complexity of age effects underlying the emergence of local influenza outbreaks. Disentangling these effects on the causal pathways will require an integrated information infrastructure for data collection and repeated studies of well-defined communities.     

An HBV model with diffusion and time delay

In this paper, a hepatitis B virus (HBV) model with spatial diffusion and saturation response of the infection rate is investigated, in which the intracellular incubation period is modelled by a discrete time delay. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of an infected steady state and an uninfected steady state is discussed. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproductive number is less than unity, the uninfected steady state is globally asymptotically stable. If the basic reproductive number is greater than unity, by successively modifying the coupled lower-upper solution pairs, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the infected steady state. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main results.     

Antiviral resistance and the control of pandemic influenza: the roles of stochasticity, evolution and model details

Antiviral drugs, most notably the neuraminidase inhibitors, are an important component of control strategies aimed to prevent or limit any future influenza pandemic. The potential large-scale use of antiviral drugs brings with it the danger of drug resistance evolution. A number of recent studies have shown that the emergence of drug-resistant influenza could undermine the usefulness of antiviral drugs for the control of an epidemic or pandemic outbreak. While these studies have provided important insights, the inherently stochastic nature of resistance generation and spread, as well as the potential for ongoing evolution of the resistant strain have not been fully addressed. Here, we study a stochastic model of drug resistance emergence and consecutive evolution of the resistant strain in response to antiviral control during an influenza pandemic. We find that taking into consideration the ongoing evolution of the resistant strain does not increase the probability of resistance emergence; however, it increases the total number of infecteds if a resistant outbreak occurs. Our study further shows that taking stochasticity into account leads to results that can differ from deterministic models. Specifically, we find that rapid and strong control cannot only contain a drug sensitive outbreak, it can also prevent a resistant outbreak from occurring. We find that the best control strategy is early intervention heavily based on prophylaxis at a level that leads to outbreak containment. If containment is not possible, mitigation works best at intermediate levels of antiviral control. Finally, we show that the results are not very sensitive to the way resistance generation is modeled.     

Age as a Determinant for Dissemination of Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza: An Open Cohort Study of Influenza Outbreaks in ?sterg?tland County,Sweden

An understanding of the occurrence and comparative timing of influenza infections in different age groups is important for developing community response and disease control measures. This study uses data from a Scandinavian county (population 427.000) to investigate whether age was a determinant for being diagnosed with influenza 2005–2010 and to examine if age was associated with case timing during outbreaks. Aggregated demographic data were collected from Statistics Sweden, while influenza case data were collected from a county-wide electronic health record system. A logistic regression analysis was used to explore whether case risk was associated with age and outbreak. An analysis of variance was used to explore whether day for diagnosis was also associated to age and outbreak. The clinical case data were validated against case data from microbiological laboratories during one control year. The proportion of cases from the age groups 10–19 (p<0.001) and 20–29 years old (p<0.01) were found to be larger during the A pH1N1 outbreak in 2009 than during the seasonal outbreaks. An interaction between age and outbreak was observed (p<0.001) indicating a difference in age effects between circulating virus types; this interaction persisted for seasonal outbreaks only (p<0.001). The outbreaks also differed regarding when the age groups received their diagnosis (p<0.001). A post-hoc analysis showed a tendency for the young age groups, in particular the group 10–19 year olds, led outbreaks with influenza type A H1 circulating, while A H3N2 outbreaks displayed little variations in timing. The validation analysis showed a strong correlation (r = 0.625;p<0.001) between the recorded numbers of clinically and microbiologically defined influenza cases. Our findings demonstrate the complexity of age effects underlying the emergence of local influenza outbreaks. Disentangling these effects on the causal pathways will require an integrated information infrastructure for data collection and repeated studies of well-defined communities.     

Timing of mutation in influenza A virus hemagglutinins by means of amino-acid distribution rank and fast Fourier transform

In this study, we calculated the amino-acid distribution rank of 1201 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses dated from 1918 to 2004 in order to compare them with respect to subtypes, species and years. After noticing fluctuations in distribution rank along the time course, we used the fast Fourier transform to determine the mutation periodicity of the hemagglutinins. Then we estimated our position at the current cycle of hemagglutinin evolutionary process to determine how many years remain before the next possible outbreak of influenza and bird flu. Finally, we used the trend channel to outlook the future of hemagglutinins for the next half a century. As our study covers almost all the full-length amino-acid sequences of hemagglutinins from various influenza A viruses, the conclusions will be valid for years until the number of hemagglutinins in Protein Databank is significantly increased.     

鹅圆环病毒浙江永康株全基因组的克隆及序列分析

为研究水禽流感大规模爆发的机理,进行了水禽流感病例中并发病原,特别是免疫抑制性病原的检测研究。根据已发表的鹅圆环病毒(Goosecircovirus,GoCV)序列,设计了一对检测引物,对浙江永康禽流感病死鹅样品进行PCR扩增,获得与预期552bp大小相符的DNA片段,经测序确认为GoCV特异序列,推测样品中存在GoCV。根据测定的序列进一步设计反向扩增引物,经扩增、测序、拼接后获得GoCV全长基因组序列。基因组序列分析表明,浙江永康株GoCV_yk01全长1821bp,具有圆环病毒共同的与病毒复制相关的茎环结构和Rep蛋白保守基序等特征,它与德国、中国台湾发表的序列在全基因组水平有91%～93%的同源性,在Rep和外壳蛋白的氨基酸水平有94%～97%的同源性。应用ClustalW方法作进化树分析显示,GoCV_yk01序列与德国株及中国台湾株均不在同一分支。圆环病毒可以感染淋巴细胞等增殖快的细胞,引起免疫抑制,从而造成其他病原的并发和继发感染,怀疑GoCV可能在2004年初永康爆发的鹅流感中起到了一定的协同作用。该GoCV_yk01是中国内地首次检测确认并测定全基因组序列的鹅圆环病毒。     

Steady state terrestrial ecosystems and the global carbon cycle

The assumption that landscapes dominated by mature vegetation are presently in carbon steady state with the atmosphere is challenged. Evidence suggests that the vegetation and soils of these landscapes are frequently disturbed and over short time periods (<300 yr) slowly sequester atmospheric carbon. The critical consideration in this argument is the time interval used to evaluate a steady state. Current models of carbon flux through the terrestrial biota limit their time considerations to 120 yr, a short and inadequate time interval for realistic assumptions about steady state in the carbon cycle of vegetation.Research performed under subcontract 19B-07762C with S. Brown and 19X-43326C with the Center for Energy and Environment Research of the University of Puerto Rico (A. E. Lugo) under Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., contract DE-AC05-840R21400 with the U.S. Department of Energy.     

Timing of mutation in hemagglutinins from influenza A virus by means of unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair and fast Fourier transform

In this study, we calculate the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pairs, which has been developed by us over the last several years, of 1201 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses dated from 1918 to 2004 in order to compare them with respect to subtypes, species, and years. After noticing the fluctuations of unpredictable portion along the time course, we use the fast Fourier transform to find the mutation periodicity of hemagglutinins. Then we estimate our position at the current cycle of hemagglutinin evolutionary process to determine how many years remain before the next outbreak of influenza and bird flu. Finally, we use the trend line and channel to outlook the hemagglutinins for the next half a century. As our study covers almost all the full-length amino-acid sequences of hemagglutinins from various influenza A viruses, the conclusion will be valid for years until the number of hemagglutinins in protein databank will be significantly increased.     

生物分子网络弹性研究进展

弹性是生物分子网络重要且基础的属性之一,一方面弹性赋予生物分子网络抵抗内部噪声与环境干扰并维持其自身基本功能的能力,另一方面,弹性为网络状态的恢复制造了阻力。生物分子网络弹性研究试图回答如下3个问题：a. 生物分子网络弹性的产生机理是什么？b. 弹性影响下生物分子网络的状态如何发生转移？c. 如何预测生物网络状态转换临界点,以防止系统向不理想的状态演化？因此,研究生物分子网络弹性有助于理解生物系统内部运作机理,同时对诸如疾病发生临界点预测、生物系统状态逆转等临床应用具有重要的指导意义。鉴于此,本文主要针对以上生物分子网络弹性领域的3个热点研究问题,在研究方法和生物学应用上进行了系统地综述,并对未来生物分子网络弹性的研究方向进行了展望。     

Protection of mice and poultry from lethal H5N1 avian influenza virus through adenovirus-based immunization

The recent emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) strains in poultry and their subsequent transmission to humans in Southeast Asia have raised concerns about the potential pandemic spread of lethal disease. In this paper we describe the development and testing of an adenovirus-based influenza A virus vaccine directed against the hemagglutinin (HA) protein of the A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1) (VN/1203/04) strain isolated during the lethal human outbreak in Vietnam from 2003 to 2005. We expressed different portions of HA from a recombinant replication-incompetent adenoviral vector, achieving vaccine production within 36 days of acquiring the virus sequence. BALB/c mice were immunized with a prime-boost vaccine and exposed to a lethal intranasal dose of VN/1203/04 H5N1 virus 70 days later. Vaccination induced both HA-specific antibodies and cellular immunity likely to provide heterotypic immunity. Mice vaccinated with full-length HA were fully protected from challenge with VN/1203/04. We next evaluated the efficacy of adenovirus-based vaccination in domestic chickens, given the critical role of fowl species in the spread of HPAI worldwide. A single subcutaneous immunization completely protected chickens from an intranasal challenge 21 days later with VN/1203/04, which proved lethal to all control-vaccinated chickens within 2 days. These data indicate that the rapid production and subsequent administration of recombinant adenovirus-based vaccines to both birds and high-risk individuals in the face of an outbreak may serve to control the pandemic spread of lethal avian influenza.     

Seasonality in elephant dung decay and implications for censusing and population monitoring in south-western Cameroon

Dung decay rates have been used in the past to correct elephant dung counts to estimates of population numbers. These assume that the dung is in a ‘steady state’ where production rates are equal to disappearance rates. The inter‐seasonal variation in decay rates, however, has never been fully investigated for elephant dung. This study, in the Banyang‐Mbo Wildlife Sanctuary in SW Cameroon, investigated whether a single dung decay rate is really appropriate when converting dung counts to population density estimates. A total of 870 fresh elephant dung‐piles were monitored until they had completely decayed, with at least 60 fresh dung piles located each month of the year between July 1994 to June 1995. The elephant dung decay rate obtained was 55.6% to 66.7% lower than those obtained for the rainforests of Gabon. This has implications for using decay rates obtained elsewhere to compute elephant densities from dung counts. Statistically significant differences were found in the mean duration of dung‐piles between different months and different seasons. Environmental variables, with the exception of rainfall, did not aid in predicting the duration of elephant dung‐piles. The model of Plumptre & Harris was used to estimate the standing crop of dung at any particular time of the year. The results show that, if there was no emigration of elephants from the population, then there was only a three‐month period when the dung was in a ‘steady state’. If emigration occurred during the wet season as is thought to occur then there was no period of ‘steady state’.     

Modeling the dynamics of Hepatitis C virus with combined antiviral drug therapy: Interferon and Ribavirin

A mathematical modeling of hepatitis C virus (HCV) dynamics and antiviral therapy has been presented in this paper. The proposed model, which involves four coupled ordinary differential equations, describes the interaction of target cells (hepatocytes), infected cells, infectious virions and non-infectious virions. The model takes into consideration the addition of ribavirin to interferon therapy and explains the dynamics regarding a biphasic and triphasic decline of viral load in the model. A critical drug efficacy parameter has been defined and it is shown that for an efficacy above this critical value, HCV is eradicated whereas for efficacy lower this critical value, a new steady state for infectious virions is reached, which is lower than the previous steady state value.     

Molecular mechanisms of interspecies transmission and pathogenicity of influenza viruses: Lessons from the 2009 pandemic

The emergence of the 2009 H1N1 virus pandemic was unexpected, since it had been predicted that the next pandemic would be caused by subtype H5N1. We also had to learn that a pandemic does not necessarily require the introduction of a new virus subtype into the human population, but that it may result from antigenic shift within the same subtype. The new variant was derived from human and animal viruses by genetic reassortment in the pig, supporting the concept that this animal is the mixing vessel for the generation of new human influenza viruses. Although it is generally believed that the 2009 outbreak was mild, there have been severe cases particularly among the young and the middle-aged. Pathogenicity and host range are determined to a large extent by the polymerase, the haemagglutinin and the NS1 protein of influenza A viruses. There is evidence that mutations of these proteins may change the pathogenicity of the new virus.