饲养林麝的种群特征和幼麝的存活研究

对饲养在上海崇明岛东平林场的林麝种群特征以及1998～2000 年间该种群所出生的74 只幼麝存活情况进行分析研究。结果表明: 该林麝种群中能繁殖的个体占51.1 % , 种群数量逐渐增长。种群存活率曲线呈C 型,说明林麝的死亡主要发生在幼麝时期。从不同年龄段性比变化来看, 初生幼麝的性比接近1∶1 , 由于雌幼麝比雄幼麝具有更高的存活率( P < 0.05) , 进入亚成体以后雄性比例逐渐下降, 显示幼麝时期存在偏雄性死亡。早出生幼麝的存活率明显高于晚出生幼麝( P < 0.05) 。引起幼麝死亡的主要原因是疾病(45. 9 %) 。     

Spatial patterns and density dependence in the dynamics of a roe deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Capreolus capreolus</Emphasis>) population in central Italy

The demography of roe deer living in a mountain area of central Italy was studied from 1995 to 1999 with 104 radio-tagged animals, including fawns and adults of both sexes. From spring surveys we estimated population density by mark-resighting (average: 53.8dž.8 individuals km^-2) and found an average fawn/doe ratio of 0.75ǂ.4. The fawn/doe ratio was negatively correlated to density suggesting density-dependent regulation in this population. Using culled and net-trapped individuals we evaluated the dressed body weights of adult males (23.1ǃ.0 kg) and females (22.0ǃ.0 kg), which indicated a low level of sexual dimorphism. The potential litter size (1.44ǂ.1 embryos) depended on female body weight and a threshold of 20.9ǃ.4 kg separated adult females carrying one or two embryos. Both fawn (0.38ǂ.07) and adult survival (0.90ǂ.07) were evaluated from radiotagged individuals and no gender effect was observed in either age class. During the study period we recorded a population decline in one part of the study area and an increasing fawn mortality, which was attributed to the spreading of an enteropathogenic desease. The study revealed an unexpected spatial structure in population dynamics at a scale of few square kilometres. In the two studied subareas, which are very close and ecologically similar, we documented significant differences in several demographic parameters: females in the subarea with the highest deer density produced smaller litters and allocated their reproductive effort preferentially to males, which is consistent with the hypothesis that local resource competition determines sex allocation in roe deer. The importance of spatial variability with respect to roe deer demography was overlooked in previous studies and our results raise new interesting research questions relative to the study of population equilibria which are also relevant for the management of this important game species.     

Attainment of early puberty in female black-tailed deer. (Odocoileus hemionus columbianus).

Female black-tailed deer fawns were hand-raised until four months of age and bred to bucks in their first fall. Over 50% conceived and subsequently gave birth to single fawns. Conceptions occurred later than for wild adults but at weights which equalled the weights of the heaviest wild fawns. A high proportion of the fawns born to fawn does died due to presumed lactation failure. Further work is continuing on the factors governing puberty attainment in this species.     

Survival of white-tailed deer fawns on Marine Corps Base Quantico

Some jurisdictions in the eastern United States have reduced harvest of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) because of perceived declines in recruitment and population size over the last decade. Although the restoration of American black bears (Ursus americanus) and the colonization of coyotes (Canis latrans) have increased fawn predation in some areas, limited information exists on how temporally dynamic resources and weather influence fawn survival. Therefore, we evaluated fawn survival probability, cause specific mortality, and if factors such as oak (Quercus spp.) mast abundance, winter severity, precipitation, and landscape composition influenced mortality risk on Marine Corps Base Quantico in northern Virginia, USA, from 2008 to 2019. We tracked 248 fawns outfitted with very high frequency radio-collars and predation was the leading cause of mortality (n = 42; 45%). We estimated survival to 133 days and survival pooling all years (2008–2019) was 0.50 (95% CI = 0.42–0.60). Increased annual red oak (Quercus spp.) mast abundance from the previous fall reduced mortality hazard for fawns. The longevity of our study revealed a link between fawn survival and a specific maternal resource (red oak mast) only available during gestation. Our results highlight the importance of oak mast in eastern deciduous forests and, more broadly, overwinter maternal condition on white-tailed deer recruitment.     

MULE DEER SURVIVAL AMONG ADJACENT POPULATIONS IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO

Abstract: We investigated survival and cause-specific mortality of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) on 3 distinct winter ranges in southwest Idaho from 1992 to 1997 to identify demographic variation and potential limiting factors based on a sample of 447 radiocollared deer. During winters 1995–1996 and 1996–1997, we modeled overwinter fawn mortality based on early winter mass, sex, activity, and habitat use variables. Annual survival rates of adult mule deer varied among the 3 adjacent study areas (χ₂² = 10.93, P = 0.004). Overwinter deer survival also varied among study areas (χ₂² = 8.00, P = 0.018), and the study area X year, study area X sex, and study area X age interactions were all significant (P ≤ 0.018). Overwinter survival differences among the study areas were not consistent over time or among sexes and ages of deer. Winter malnutrition was the main cause of mortality for both adults and fawns during the severe winter of 1992–1993, when overall survival was low. Excluding harvest, predation was the major proximate cause of deer mortality during 1993–97 when overall survival was higher. The probability of winter fawn mortality increased with lower mass (χ₂¹ = 7.38, P = 0.007), being male (χ₂¹ = 5.61, P = 0.018), smaller group sizes (χ₂¹ = 3.62, P = 0.057), and using steeper slopes (χ₂¹ = 3.05, P = 0.081). Smaller group sizes and use of steep slopes corresponded to conditions where predators were more successful. Our findings suggest that coyote (Canis latrans) predation was largely compensatory whereas mountain lion (Puma concolor) predation was apparently independent of animal condition and dependent more on deer habitat use. Early winter fawn mass was a better predictor of overwinter fawn survival than a suite of winter resource use variables, lending further support for use of fawn mass to predict winters where fawn mortality may be high. No single population in this study could be used to make reliable inferences regarding deer survival in the other populations. Survival rate measurements should be used cautiously to make inferences in populations where survival has not been directly measured.     

Survival of White-Tailed Deer Fawns in Southern Illinois

Abstract: Survival of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns has been quantified throughout much of North America. However, few studies have assessed the influence of intrinsic factors (e.g., fawn age and birth mass) and habitat on fawn survival. During 2002-2004, we captured and radiocollared 166 fawns in southern Illinois, USA, to estimate survival rates, determine causes of mortality, and identify factors influencing fawn survival. We used a known fates model in program MARK to estimate survival rates and compare explanatory models based on Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC_c). We developed 2 candidate sets of a priori models to quantify factors influencing fawn survival: model set 1 included intrinsic factors and model set 2 focused on habitat variables. We recorded 64 mortalities and the overall survival rate was 0.59 (95% CI = 0.51-0.68). Predation was the leading source of mortality (64%) and coyotes (Canis latrans) were the most prominent predator. For model set 1, model {S_{age X year}} had the lowest AIC_c value suggesting that the age at mortality varied among capture years. For model set 2, model {S_{landscape+forest}} had the lowest AIC_c value and indicated that areas inhabited by surviving fawns were characterized by a few large (i.e., > 5 ha) irregular forest patches adjacent to several small nonforest patches, and survival areas also contained more edge habitat than mortality areas. Due to the magnitude of coyote predation, survival areas could have represented landscapes where coyotes were less effective at locating and capturing fawns when compared to mortality areas. This study was the first account of macrohabitat characteristics directly influencing fawn survival. Wildlife managers can use this information to determine how habitat management activities may affect deer populations.     

Predation processes: behavioural interactions between red fox and roe deer during the fawning season

Predation by red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is the most important mortality cause for neonatal roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) in Scandinavia. With the objective of investigating how the fox finds fawns and how antipredatory behaviour of roe deer females influences choice of hunting method, I analysed observations of interactions between red fox and roe deer females. The observations were collected over 14 years in a mixed forest/agricultural landscape in Sweden. Of 49 fox–doe encounters, the doe attacked the fox in 59%. In 90% of these attacks the fox was successfully deterred. In two observations a doe saved a fawn attacked by a fox. Two hunting methods used by the fox were discerned. In 28 cases foxes searched the ground, and in 18 cases they surveyed open areas, often from a forest edge. The latter behaviour seemed more directed at fawns and was seen leading to a capture attempt. Searching seemed less efficient and also difficult to conduct due to the aggressiveness of does. A surveying sit-and-wait type of hunting method thus appeared as the most successful. The possibility to use this method could explain why roe deer fawns are more vulnerable to fox predation in open habitats.     

Predator densities and white-tailed deer fawn survival

Predation is the dominant source of mortality for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) <6 months old throughout North America. Yet, few white-tailed deer fawn survival studies have occurred in areas with 4 predator species or have considered concurrent densities of deer and predator species. We monitored survival and cause-specific mortality from birth to 6 months for 100 neonatal fawns during 2013–2015 in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA, while simultaneously estimating population densities of deer, American black bear (Ursus americanus), coyote (Canis latrans), bobcat (Lynx rufus), and gray wolf (Canis lupus). We estimated fawn predation risk in response to sex, birth mass, and date of birth. Six-month fawn survival pooled among years was 36%, and fawn mortality risk was not related to birth mass, date of birth, or sex. Estimated mean annual deer and predator densities were 334 fawns/100 km², 25.9 black bear/100 km², 23.8 coyotes/100 km², 3.8 bobcat/100 km², and 2.8 wolves/100 km². Despite lower estimated per-individual kill rates, coyotes and black bears were the leading sources of fawn mortality because they had greater densities relative to bobcats and wolves. Our results indicate that the presence of more predator species in a system is not entirely additive in its effect on fawn survival. © The Wildlife Society, 2019     

Survival and Cause-Specific Mortality of Neonatal Mule Deer Fawns,North-Central New Mexico

Abstract: Because of significant declines in mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations across New Mexico, USA, we investigated survival of fawns in north-central New Mexico, USA. We captured 19 fawns, 34 fawns, and 47 fawns in 2002, 2003, and 2004, respectively, and used fawn morphological measurements, habitat characteristics, and adult female (hereafter “female”) condition to model preweaning fawn survival. Survival was 0.0, 0.12, 0.52 for 2002, 2003, and 2004, respectively, and was related to birth mass (χ₁² = 9.5, P = 0.002), birth date (χ₁²= 8.4, P = 0.004), litter size (χ₂² = 9.4, P = 0.009), female body fat (χ₁² = 40.9, P < 0.001), annual precipitation (χ₁² = 35.0, P < 0.001), summer precipitation (χ₁²= 37.5, P < 0.001), and winter precipitation (χ₁² = 32.0, P < 0.001). Total ingesta-free body fat of females (β = 3.01, SE = 0.75; odds ratio = 20.19, 95% CI = 4.64-87.91) and birth mass of fawns (β = 1.188, SE = 0.428; odds ratio = 3.38, 95% CI = 1.42-7.59) were the best predictors of survival of individual fawns, although few of the logistic models differed in model selection criteria. Fawn survival in north-central New Mexico was driven by an interaction of total and seasonal precipitation and its effect on plant production, consequential effects on female nutrition, and ultimately, fawn birth attributes. Habitat conditions were so poor throughout north-central New Mexico during 2002 and 2003 (and likely during other drought yr) that, based upon birth attributes, few fawns could have survived regardless of proximate causes of mortality. In 2004, precipitation enhanced security cover, maternal body condition, birth attributes and, thus, survival of fawns. However, more habitat enhancements are needed to improve the nutritional quality of mule deer habitats in north-central New Mexico and further enhance maternal and fawn condition to recover mule deer populations in this region.     

Culling Versus Density Effects in Management of a Deer Population

Abstract: Wildlife managers often manipulate hunting regulations to control deer populations. However, few empirical studies have examined the level of hunting effort (hunter-days) required to limit population growth and demographic effects through harvesting of females. Moreover, the relative importance of density effects on population growth has not been quantified. We reconstructed a sika deer [Cervus nippon] population over a period of 12 years (1990–2001) using age- and sex-specific harvest data. Using cohort analysis, we analyzed population dynamics, focusing on 1) the relationship between hunting effort and hunting-induced mortality rate, 2) relative contributions of hunting mortality and recruitment of yearlings to annual changes in population growth rate, and 3) annual variation in recruitment rate. Population size increased until 1998 and declined thereafter. The population growth rate changed more in response to annual changes in recruitment rate than hunting mortality rate. Temporal variation in recruitment rate was not controlled by birth rate alone; direct density dependence, intensities of hunting mortality for fawns, and for females (≥2 yr of age), which accounted for the fawn survival rate, were required as factors to explain temporal variation. Density effects on the recruitment rate were not strong enough to regulate the population within the study period; high hunting mortality, with intensive female harvesting, was necessary to prevent population growth. Hunting effort was a good predictor of the hunting mortality rate, and female harvest had a negative effect on the recruitment rate through fawn survival. We suggest that >3,500 hunter-days and prioritization of female harvesting are required to prevent increases in this deer population.     

Early survival in roe deer: causes and consequences of cohort variation in two contrasted populations

Time- and sex-specific summer survival of roe deer fawns was estimated using capture-mark-recapture methods in two enclosed populations living in contrasting conditions. The population of Trois Fontaines (eastern France) was roughly constant in size throughout the study period, while in Chizé (western France), the population experienced frequent summer droughts and numbers decreased continuously during the study. Early survival of fawns was low and highly variable over the years at both Chizé and Trois Fontaines, and demonstrated marked variations between cohorts that need to be taken into account when modelling roe deer population dynamics. In Trois Fontaines, fawn survival was positively correlated with early body growth and total rainfall in May and June. In Chizé, fawn survival decreased with increasing density and tended to increase with increasing rainfall in May and June and adult female body mass. These factors explained more than 75% of the variability in early survival observed in both populations. Variation between cohorts had different consequences for the two populations. At Trois Fontaines, cohort variation was limited to a numerical effect on early survival. However at Chizé, cohort variation was long-lasting and affected the phenotypic quality of survivors at later ages, and thereby future survival and breeding abilities (both numerical and quality effects). Male and female fawns had similar survival over their first summer in both populations. This result contrasts with the lower survival of young males often observed in ungulates. Two ultimate causes can be proposed to account for the low and variable survival of roe deer fawns over the first summer: the high energy expenditures incurred by does during each breeding attempt and/or the low absolute body size of newborn roe deer fawns. Received: 28 April 1997 / Accepted: 14 July 1997     

The effect of environmental gradients on the bed site selection of roe deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Capreolus capreolus</Emphasis>)

A wildlife species’ selection of bedding sites is often characterised by strong trade-offs, as habitat quality, predator avoidance and foraging needs should be achieved simultaneously. Human activities often represent major threats in addition. In areas of intensive agriculture, e.g. mowing is one of the main causes of mortality of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) fawns due their hiding strategy. For a species’ offspring, the selection of bedding sites is particularly crucial and thus, identifying how and when animals use such habitats is important for management. We used a long-term dataset of marked roe deer fawns in Switzerland (1971–2015) to reveal the characteristics of optimal bedding sites within the first two weeks of a fawn’s life in three contrasting landscapes and the potential trade-offs that may occur. We hypothesised that roe deer adjust the selection of bedding sites to current environmental conditions and available habitat to achieve sufficient levels of predator avoidance and thermoregulation necessary for the fawn’s survival, as well as the availability of sufficient food resources for the mother doe. We found that, in general, grassland habitats with medium vegetation height (20–50 cm) and habitats in close proximity to the edge of the forest were favoured to achieve those basic requirements. However, the use of bed site habitats differed between the three contrasting landscapes in dependence of elevation and hence vegetation phenology. Our results provide essential information to reduce mortality rates caused by mowing and improve the reproductive success of this species.     

A review of the population dynamics of mule deer and black‐tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus in North America

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Forage quality's influence on mule deer fawns

In many mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations, recruitment of fawns drives population dynamics. The quality of food available to females and their fawns in summer and autumn may play an important role in fawn recruitment. We examined direct links between digestible energy (DE) content of food and the DE intake of females on the nutrient concentration of milk and between the nursing behavior, DE intake, growth, and survival in captive mule deer fawns. We offered females and their fawns diets that simulated the natural decline in DE content of forage from mid-summer to late autumn in many western landscapes. Fawns fed a higher DE diet weighed 14% more at the onset of winter, had fewer unsuccessful nursing attempts, consumed milk with more protein and energy, and had higher survival than fawns fed a low DE diet. Differences between fawn performances among treatments were greatest when diet quality began decreasing earlier in the summer. Because our results indicate that summer and autumn nutrition is likely to influence fawn recruitment, wildlife biologists should include metrics for summer precipitation and late autumn fawn mass in population models, and land managers should focus on methods for improving the nutritional carrying capacity of summer and early autumn habitats. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

White-Tailed Deer Population Dynamics Following Louisiana Black Bear Recovery

Changing predator communities have been implicated in reduced survival of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns. Few studies, however, have used field-based age-specific estimates for survival and fecundity to assess the relative importance of low fawn survival on population growth and harvest potential. We studied white-tailed deer population dynamics on Tensas River National Wildlife Refuge (TRNWR) in Louisiana, USA, where the predator community included bobcats (Lynx rufus), coyotes (Canis latrans), and a restored population of Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus). During 2013–2015, we radio-collared and monitored 70 adult (≥2.5 yrs) and 21 yearling (1.5-yr-old) female deer. Annual survival averaged 0.815 (95% CI = 0.734–0.904) for adults and 0.857 (95% CI = 0.720–1.00) for yearlings. We combined these estimates with concurrently collected fawn survival estimates (0.27; 95% CI = 0.185–0.398) to model population trajectories and elasticities. We used estimates of nonhunting survival (annual survival estimated excluding harvest mortality) to project population growth (λ) relative to 4 levels of harvest (0, 10%, 20%, 30%). Finally, we investigated effects of reduced fawn survival on population growth under current management and with elimination of female harvest. Despite substantial fawn predation, the deer population on TRNWR was increasing (λ = 1.06) and could sustain additional female harvest; however, the population was expected to decline at 20% (λ = 0.98) and 30% (λ = 0.94) female harvest. With no female harvest, the population was projected to increase with observed (λ = 1.15) and reduced fawn survival (λ = 1.02), but the population could not sustain current female harvest (10%) if fawn survival declined (λ = 0.90). For all scenarios, adult female survival was the most elastic parameter. Given the importance of adult female survival, the relative predictability in response of adult survival to harvest management, and the difficulty in altering fawn survival, reducing female harvest is likely the most efficient approach to compensate for low fawn survival. On highly productive sites such as ours, reduction, but not necessarily elimination, of harvest can mitigate effects of low fawn survival on population growth. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Seroconversion rates to Jamestown Canyon virus among six populations of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Indiana

The annual seroconversion of fawns, yearlings, and adult white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) to Jamestown Canyon virus (California group) was followed at six Indiana sites from 1981 through 1984. In all, sera from 1,642 deer (515 fawns, 618 yearlings, and 509 adults) were tested for neutralizing antibody to three California serogroup viruses: Jamestown Canyon, La Crosse, and trivittatus. Virtually all deer with specific neutralizing antibody showed evidence of a prior infection with Jamestown Canyon virus; only three deer showed evidence of a prior infection with only La Crosse virus and none showed evidence of an infection with only trivittatus virus. While there were no significant differences in antibody prevalence to Jamestown Canyon virus between yearling and adult deer at any site, fawns had significantly lower antibody prevalences than either of the two older age groups. Significant differences in antibody prevalence were found between northern versus southern populations of white-tailed deer in Indiana, however, no significant differences were found among the four northern populations or between the two southern populations. The mean antibody prevalences in the two southern fawn, yearling, and adult populations were 15%, 38%, and 41% respectively, while the prevalences in the four northern fawn, yearling, and adult populations were 5%, 67%, and 67% respectively. These different prevalences (northern vs. southern) correlate with the higher Jamestown Canyon virus antibody prevalence in human residents of northern Indiana (2-15%) compared to residents of southern Indiana (less than 2%) found in other studies. The significantly lower prevalence of antibody to Jamestown Canyon virus in fawns is attributed to maternal antibody protecting them from a primary infection their first summer. Yearling deer showed high rates of seroconversion following their second summer of life. These results suggest that infection of white-tailed deer in Indiana with Jamestown Canyon virus is a common phenomenon.     

Estimating chronic wasting disease effects on mule deer recruitment and population growth

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a prion disease of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), accelerates mortality and in so doing has the potential to influence population dynamics. Although effects on mule deer survival are clear, how CWD affects recruitment is less certain. We studied how prion infection influenced the number of offspring raised to weaning per adult (≥2 yr old) female mule deer and subsequently the estimated growth rate (λ) of an infected deer herd. Infected and presumably uninfected radio-collared female deer were observed with their fawns in late summer (August-September) during three consecutive years (2006-2008) in the Table Mesa area of Boulder, Colorado, USA. We counted the number of fawns accompanying each female, then used a fully Bayesian model to estimate recruitment by infected and uninfected females and the effect of the disease on λ. On average, infected females weaned 0.95 fawns (95% credible interval=0.56-1.43) whereas uninfected females weaned 1.34 fawns (95% credible interval=1.09-1.61); the probability that uninfected females weaned more fawns than infected females was 0.93). We used estimates of prevalence to weight recruitment and survival parameters in the transition matrix of a three-age, single-sex matrix model and then used the matrix to calculate effects of CWD on λ. When effects of CWD on both survival and recruitment were included, the modeled λ was 0.97 (95% credible interval = 0.82-1.09). Effects of disease on λ were mediated almost entirely by elevated mortality of infected animals. We conclude that although CWD may affect mule deer recruitment, these effects seem to be sufficiently small that they can be omitted in estimating the influences of CWD on population growth rate.     

Effects of Winter-Feeding on Mule Deer in Northern Utah

Abstract: During severe winters, mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) concentrated on ranges in poor condition can experience high mortality. Winter-feeding programs have been implemented to mitigate this mortality. We studied effects on body condition, mortality, fawn production, and migration of mule deer following winter-feeding in the Cache-Wasatch Mountains of northern Utah, USA. Fed deer exhibited 12% higher live body-condition indices both years (main effect feed: F_1,7.32 = 5.39, P = 0.052), lower mortality (33% vs. 55%: χ²₁= 4.58, P < 0.05), and produced more fawns (19 fawns:18 fed F vs. 11 fawns:12 nonfed F; t_27.2 = 2.20, P < 0.036) than nonfed deer. Fed deer migrated later in spring 2004 (x̄ = 13 Apr) than nonfed deer (x̄ = 24 Mar; t₃₄= 3.25, P = 0.003). Fed deer spent more time on winter range in 2003-2004 (x̄ = 157 d) than nonfed deer (x̄ = 121 d; t20 = 3.63, P = 0.002), and more time on winter range for both winters combined (fed deer x̄ = 321 d, nonfed deer x̄ = 257 d; t₂₇ = 3.29, P = 0.003). Concomitantly, wildlife managers need to recognize that any possible benefits accrued to mule deer populations in terms of increased nutritional status as a result of winter-feeding programs may be mitigated by altered timing of migration and increased duration of use of seasonal ranges by fed deer.     

Increased brown bear predation on sika deer fawns following a deer population irruption in eastern Hokkaido, Japan

By the 1970s, brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Hokkaido, northern Japan, were opportunistic omnivores that mainly depended on plant materials. Because the sika deer (Cervus nippon) population irrupted in eastern Hokkaido in the 1990s, we expected that brown bears might prey on sika deer fawns. First, we developed a simple and cost-effective method of monitoring possible bear predation on deer fawns by analyzing the widths of deer hairs remained in bear scats. Based on hair thickness standards, we distinguished the brown bear consumption of deer fawns from adults by analyzing bear scats (n?=?108) collected during the deer birthing season (late May?Clate July) in 1999?C2008. To evaluate the importance of fawns to bears, we compared the occurrence of fawn and adult deer hairs in bear scats among three periods (I, 1999?C2000; II, 2003?C2005; III, 2006?C2008) in eastern Hokkaido. The occurrence of fawn hairs in bear scats increased from 12.5 to 27.3?% in volume and from 6.3 to 33.6?% in frequency from period I to period III, whereas adult hairs in scats decreased from 42.8 to 26.1?% in volume and from 34.4 to 22.7?% in frequency during the same time. These data suggest that bears increasingly preyed on deer fawns after the deer population irruption and decreasingly used adult carcasses because of the enforcement of deer carcass treatment by the Hokkaido government.     

Erratum to: Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer

Effective species management and conservation relies on accurate estimates of vital rates and an understanding of their link to environmental variables. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to directly quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival of black-tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus columbianus in California, USA. Survival probabilities were derived from individual encounter histories of 136 fawns and 57 adults monitored over 4 years. Based on results from our survival analysis we parameterized a Lefkovitch matrix and used elasticity analyses to investigate contributions of mortality due to predation to changes in population growth. We found strong evidence for age-specific survival including senescence. Survival of females >1 year old was consistently low (0.56 ± 0.18 for yearlings, 0.77 ± 0.13 for prime-aged females, and 0.55 ± 0.08 for senescent individuals), primarily due to high puma Puma concolor predation during summer. Predation from black bears Ursus americanus and coyotes Canis latrans was the primary cause for low annual survival of fawns (0.24 ± 0.16). Resulting estimates of population growth rates were indicative of a strongly declining population (λ = 0.82 ± 0.13). Despite high sensitivity to changes in adult survival, results from a lower-level elasticity analysis suggested that predation on fawns was the most significant individual mortality component affecting population decline. Our results provide a rare, direct link between predation, age-specific survival and the predicted population decline of a common ungulate species. The magnitude of predation was unexpected and suggests that ungulates in multi-predator systems struggle to cope with simultaneous reductions in survival probabilities from predators targeting different age classes.