A comparison of the global warming effects of wood fuels and fossil fuels taking albedo into account

Traditionally, wood fuels, like other bioenergy sources, have been considered carbon neutral because the amount of CO₂ released can be offset by CO₂ sequestration due to the regrowth of the biomass. Thus, until recently, most studies assigned a global warming potential (GWP) of zero to CO₂ generated by the combustion of biomass (biogenic CO₂). Moreover, emissions of biogenic CO₂ are usually not included in carbon tax and emissions trading schemes. However, there is now increasing awareness of the inadequacy of this way of treating bioenergy, especially bioenergy from boreal forests. Holtsmark (2014) recently quantified the GWP of biogenic CO₂ from slow‐growing forests (GWP_bio), finding it to be significantly higher than the GWP of fossil CO₂ when a 100 year time horizon was applied. Hence, the climate impact seems to be even higher for the combustion of slow‐growing biomass than for the combustion of fossil carbon in a 100 year timeframe. The present study extends the analysis of Holtsmark (2014) in three ways. First, it includes the cooling effects of increased surface reflectivity after harvest (albedo). Second, it includes a comparison with the potential warming impact of fossil fuels, taking the CO₂ emissions per unit of energy produced into account. Third, the study links the literature estimating GWP_bio and the literature dealing with the carbon debt, and model simulations estimating the payback time of the carbon debt are presented. The conclusion is that, also after these extensions of the analysis, bioenergy from slow‐growing forests usually has a larger climate impact in a 100 year timeframe than fossil oil and gas. Whether bioenergy performs better or worse than coal depends on a number of conditions.     

The role of forest residues in the accounting for the global warming potential of bioenergy

Bioenergy makes up a significant portion of the global primary energy pie, and its production from modernized technology is foreseen to substantially increase. The climate neutrality of biogenic CO₂ emissions from bioenergy grown from sustainably managed biomass resource pools has recently been questioned. The temporary change caused in atmospheric CO₂ concentration from biogenic carbon fluxes was found to be largely dependent on the length of biomass rotation period. In this work, we also show the importance of accounting for the unutilized biomass that is left to decompose in the resource pool and how the characterization factor for the climate impact of biogenic CO₂ emissions changes whether residues are removed for bioenergy or not. With the case of Norwegian Spruce biomass grown in Norway, we found that significantly more biogenic CO₂ emissions should be accounted towards contributing to global warming potential when residues are left in the forest. For a 100‐year time horizon, the global warming potential bio factors suggest that between 44 and 62% of carbon‐flux, neutral biogenic CO₂ emissions at the energy conversion plant should be attributed to causing equivalent climate change potential as fossil‐based CO₂ emissions. For a given forest residue extraction scenario, the same factor should be applied to the combustion of any combination of stem and forest residues. Life cycle analysis practitioners should take these impacts into account and similar region/species specific factors should be developed.     

Is woody bioenergy carbon neutral? A comparative assessment of emissions from consumption of woody bioenergy and fossil fuel

Under the current accounting systems, emissions produced when biomass is burnt for energy are accounted as zero, resulting in what is referred to as the ‘carbon neutrality’ assumption. However, if current harvest levels are increased to produce more bioenergy, carbon that would have been stored in the biosphere might be instead released in the atmosphere. This study utilizes a comparative approach that considers emissions under alternative energy supply options. This approach shows that the emission benefits of bioenergy compared to use of fossil fuel are time‐dependent. It emerges that the assumption that bioenergy always results in zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to use of fossil fuels can be misleading, particularly in the context of short‐to‐medium term goals. While it is clear that all sources of woody bioenergy from sustainably managed forests will produce emission reductions in the long term, different woody biomass sources have various impacts in the short‐medium term. The study shows that the use of forest residues that are easily decomposable can produce GHG benefits compared to use of fossil fuels from the beginning of their use and that biomass from dedicated plantations established on marginal land can be carbon neutral from the beginning of its use. However, the risk of short‐to‐medium term negative impacts is high when additional fellings are extracted to produce bioenergy and the proportion of felled biomass used for bioenergy is low, or when land with high C stocks is converted to low productivity bioenergy plantations. The method used in the study provides an instrument to identify the time‐dependent pattern of emission reductions for alternative bioenergy sources. In this way, decision makers can evaluate which bioenergy options are most beneficial for meeting short‐term GHG emission reduction goals and which ones are more appropriate for medium to longer term objectives.     

Lifecycle climate impact and primary energy use of electric and biofuel cargo trucks

Heavy trucks contribute significantly to climate change, and in 2020 were responsible for 7% of total Swedish GHG emissions and 5% of total global CO₂ emissions. Here we study the full lifecycle of cargo trucks powered by different energy pathways, comparing their biomass feedstock use, primary energy use, net biogenic and fossil CO₂ emission and cumulative radiative forcing. We analyse battery electric trucks with bioelectricity from stand-alone or combined heat and power (CHP) plants, and pathways where bioelectricity is integrated with wind and solar electricity. We analyse trucks operated on fossil diesel fuel and on dimethyl ether (DME). All energy pathways are analysed with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS). Bioelectricity and DME are produced from forest harvest residues. Forest biomass is a limited resource, so in a scenario analysis we allocate a fixed amount of biomass to power Swedish truck transport. Battery lifespan and chemistry, the technology level of energy supply, and the biomass source and transport distance are all varied to understand how sensitive the results are to these parameters. We find that pathways using electricity to power battery electric trucks have much lower climate impacts and primary energy use, compared to diesel- and DME-based pathways. The pathways using bioelectricity with CCS result in negative emissions leading to global cooling of the earth. The pathways using diesel and DME have significant and very similar climate impact, even with CCS. The robust results show that truck electrification and increased renewable electricity production is a much better strategy to reduce the climate impact of cargo transport than the adoption of DME trucks, and much more primary energy efficient. This climate impact analysis includes all fossil and net biogenic CO₂ emissions as well as the timing of these emissions. Considering only fossil emissions is incomplete and could be misleading.     

Forest biomass energy: assessing atmospheric carbon impacts by discounting future carbon flows

Although forest biomass energy was long assumed to be carbon neutral, many studies show delays between forest biomass carbon emissions and sequestration, with biomass carbon causing climate change damage in the interim. While some models suggest that these primary biomass carbon effects may be mitigated by induced market effects, for example, from landowner decisions to increase afforestation due to higher biomass prices, the delayed carbon sequestration of biomass energy systems still creates considerable scientific debate (i.e., how to assess effects) and policy debate (i.e., how to act given these effects). Forests can be carbon sinks, but their carbon absorption capacity is finite. Filling the sink with fossil fuel carbon thus has a cost, and conversely, harvesting a forest for biomass energy – which depletes the carbon sink – creates potential benefits from carbon sequestration. These values of forest carbon sinks have not generally been considered. Using data from the 2010 Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences ‘Biomass sustainability and carbon policy study’ and a model of forest biomass carbon system dynamics, we investigate how discounting future carbon flows affects the comparison of biomass energy to fossil fuels in Massachusetts, USA. Drawing from established financial valuation metrics, we calculate internal rates of return (IRR) as explicit estimates of the temporal values of forest biomass carbon emissions. Comparing these IRR to typical private discount rates, we find forest biomass energy to be preferred to fossil fuel energy in some applications. We discuss possible rationales for zero and near‐zero social discount rates with respect to carbon emissions, showing that social discount rates depend in part on expectations about how climate change affects future economic growth. With near‐zero discount rates, forest biomass energy is preferred to fossil fuels in all applications studied. Higher IRR biomass energy uses (e.g., thermal applications) are preferred to lower IRR uses (e.g., electricity generation without heat recovery).     

Incorporating Uncertainty into a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Model of Short-Rotation Willow Biomass (Salix spp.) Crops

To estimate fossil fuel demand and greenhouse gas emissions associated with short-rotation willow (Salix spp.) crops in New York State, we constructed a life cycle assessment model capable of estimating point values and measures of variability for a number of key processes across eight management scenarios. The system used 445.0 to 1,052.4 MJ of fossil energy per oven-dry tonne (odt) of delivered willow biomass, resulting in a net energy balance of 18.3:1 to 43.4:1. The largest fraction of the energy demand across all scenarios was driven by the use of diesel fuels. The largest proportion of diesel fuel was associated with harvesting and delivery of willow chips seven times on 3-year rotations over the life of the crop. Similar patterns were found for greenhouse gas emissions across all scenarios, as fossil fuel use served as the biggest source of emissions in the system. Carbon sequestration in the belowground portion of the willow system provided a large carbon sink that more than compensated for carbon emissions across all scenarios, resulting in final greenhouse gas balances of ?138.4 to ?52.9 kg CO₂ eq. per odt biomass. The subsequent uncertainty analyses revealed that variability associated with data on willow yield, litterfall, and belowground biomass eliminated some of the differences between the tested scenarios. Even with the inclusion of uncertainty analysis, the willow system was still a carbon sequestration system after a single crop cycle (seven 3-year rotations) in all eight scenarios. A better understanding and quantification of factors that drive the variability in the biological portions of the system is necessary to produce more precise estimates of the emissions and energy performance of short-rotation woody crops.     

中国能源消费碳排放的时空特征

选择联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的部门方法和8大类能源,采用1990年至2009年的中国能源统计数据,按照自下而上的思路,对我国各省区的碳排放量进行估算,并从碳排放量、碳排放强度、人均碳排放量和碳排放密指标出发,深入分析了各省区碳排放的时空特征差异。以期对国内碳排放的时空特征分析,有助于决策者和能源分析家提高节能减排政策制定的有效性。     

Contextualizing ethanol avoided carbon emissions in Brazil

We propose to compare avoided emissions from ethanol use in Brazil with emissions caused by the use of fossil fuel, and by land use changes, specifically Amazon deforestation. The avoided emissions of CO₂ in Brazil due to ethanol use in 2008 ranged from approximately 9 to 12 Tg C yr^?1. These values are an order of magnitude higher than the amount of carbon that could be potentially sequestered in soils if sugarcane cultivation in Brazil switches completely to mechanized harvesting, and two orders of magnitude higher than the carbon emissions in soils cultivated with sugarcane and that undergo harvest with burning. In relation to fossil fuel emissions, ethanol avoided emissions are equivalent to 20–30% of the carbon emissions associated with the use of gasoline and diesel in the transportation sector, and to approximately 10% of the total use of fossil fuel in the country. When compared with the carbon emissions from Amazon deforestation ethanol avoided emissions are again one order of magnitude lower. We conclude that ethanol avoided emissions are relatively important within the transport sector, but are still incipient if compared with the emissions from total fossil fuel combustion and emissions from deforestation indicating that climate mitigation efforts in Brazil needs to focus outside of biofuel production. Consequently, we suggest that Brazil develop equally strong actions towards increased energy efficiency use in the country and, more importantly to drastically reduce carbon emissions associated with Amazon deforestation.     

Diverting residual biomass to energy use: Quantifying the global warming potential of biogenic CO2 (GWPbCO2)

To calculate the global warming potential of biogenic carbon dioxide emissions (GWP_bCO2) associated with diverting residual biomass to bioenergy use, the decay of annual biogenic carbon pulses into the atmosphere over 100 years was compared between biomass use for energy and its business-as-usual decomposition in agricultural, forestry, or landfill sites. Bioenergy use increased atmospheric CO₂ load in all cases, resulting in a ¹⁰⁰GWP_bCO2 (units of g CO₂e/g biomass CO₂ released) of 0.003 for the fast-decomposing agricultural residues to 0.029 for the slow, 0.084–0.625 for forest residues, and 0.368–0.975 for landfill lignocellulosic biomass. In comparison, carbon emissions from fossil fuels have a ¹⁰⁰GWP of 1.0 g (CO₂e/g fossil CO₂). The fast decomposition rate and the corresponding low ¹⁰⁰GWP_bCO2 values of agricultural residues make them a more climate-friendly feedstock for bioenergy production relative to forest residues and landfill lignocellulosic biomass. This study shows that CO₂ released from the combustion of bioenergy or biofuels made from residual biomass has a greenhouse gas footprint that should be considered in assessing climate impacts.     

Serious mismatches continue between science and policy in forest bioenergy

In recent years, the production of pellets derived from forestry biomass to replace coal for electricity generation has been increasing, with over 10 million tonnes traded internationally—primarily between United States and Europe but with an increasing trend to Asia. Critical to this trade is the classification of woody biomass as ‘renewable energy’ and thus eligible for public subsidies. However, much scientific study on the net effect of this trend suggests that it is having the opposite effect to that expected of renewable energy, by increasing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide for substantial periods of time. This review, based on recent work by Europe's Academies of Science, finds that current policies are failing to recognize that removing forest carbon stocks for bioenergy leads to an initial increase in emissions. Moreover, the periods during which atmospheric CO₂ levels are raised before forest regrowth can reabsorb the excess emissions are incompatible with the urgency of reducing emissions to comply with the objectives enshrined in the Paris Agreement. We consider how current policy might be reformed to reduce negative impacts on climate and argue for a more realistic science‐based assessment of the potential of forest bioenergy in substituting for fossil fuels. The length of time atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ increase is highly dependent on the feedstocks and we argue for regulations to explicitly require these to be sources with short payback periods. Furthermore, we describe the current United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change accounting rules which allow imported biomass to be treated as zero emissions at the point of combustion and urge their revision to remove the risk of these providing incentives to import biomass with negative climate impacts. Reforms such as these would allow the industry to evolve to methods and scales which are more compatible with the basic purpose for which it was designed.     

Optimal Locations for Methanol and CHP Production in Eastern Finland

Finland considers energy production from woody biomass as an efficient energy planning strategy to increase the domestic renewable energy production in order to substitute fossil fuel consumption and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, a number of developmental activities are implemented in the country, and one of them is the installation of second generation liquid biofuel demonstration plants. In this study, two gasification-based biomass conversion technologies, methanol and combined heat and power (CHP) production, are assessed for commercialization. Spatial information on forest resources, sawmill residues, existing biomass-based industries, energy demand regions, possible plant locations, and a transport network of Eastern Finland is fed into a geographically explicit Mixed Integer Programming model to minimize the costs of the entire supply chain which includes the biomass supply, biomass and biofuel transportation, biomass conversion, energy distribution, and emissions. The model generates a solution by determining the optimal number, locations, and technology mix of bioenergy production plants. Scenarios were created with a focus on biomass and energy demand, plant characteristics, and cost variations. The model results state that the biomass supply and high energy demand are found to have a profound influence on the potential bioenergy production plant locations. The results show that methanol can be produced in Eastern Finland under current market conditions at an average cost of 0.22??/l with heat sales (0.34??/l without heat sales). The introduction of energy policy tools, like cost for carbon, showed a significant influence on the choice of technology and CO₂ emission reductions. The results revealed that the methanol technology was preferred over the CHP technology at higher carbon dioxide cost (>145??/t_CO2). The results indicate that two methanol plants (360?MW_biomass) are needed to be built to meet the transport fuel demand of Eastern Finland.     

Net greenhouse gas fluxes in Brazilian ethanol production systems

Biofuels are both a promising solution to global warming mitigation and a potential contributor to the problem. Several life cycle assessments of bioethanol have been conducted to address these questions. We performed a synthesis of the available data on Brazilian ethanol production focusing on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and carbon (C) sinks in the agricultural and industrial phases. Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from fossil fuels, methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) from sources commonly included in C footprints, such as fossil fuel usage, biomass burning, nitrogen fertilizer application, liming and litter decomposition were accounted for. In addition, black carbon (BC) emissions from burning biomass and soil C sequestration were included in the balance. Most of the annual emissions per hectare are in the agricultural phase, both in the burned system (2209 out of a total of 2398 kg C_eq), and in the unburned system (559 out of 748 kg C_eq). Although nitrogen fertilizer emissions are large, 111 kg C_eq ha^?1 yr^?1, the largest single source of emissions is biomass burning in the manual harvest system, with a large amount of both GHG (196 kg C_eq ha^?1 yr^?1). and BC (1536 kg C_eq ha^?1 yr^?1). Besides avoiding emissions from biomass burning, harvesting sugarcane mechanically without burning tends to increase soil C stocks, providing a C sink of 1500 kg C ha^?1 yr^?1 in the 30 cm layer. The data show a C output: input ratio of 1.4 for ethanol produced under the conventionally burned and manual harvest compared with 6.5 for the mechanized harvest without burning, signifying the importance of conservation agricultural systems in bioethanol feedstock production.     

A life cycle carbon dioxide inventory of the Million Trees Los Angeles program

Purpose

This study seeks to answer the question, “Will the Million Trees LA (Million Trees Los Angeles, MTLA) program be a carbon dioxide (CO₂) sink or source?” Because there has never been a full accounting of CO₂ emissions, it is unclear if urban tree planting initiatives (TPIs) are likely to be effective means for reaching local reduction targets.

Methods

Using surveys, interviews, field sampling, and computer simulation of tree growth and survival over a 40-year time period, we developed the first process-based life cycle inventory of CO₂ for a large TPI. CO₂ emissions and reductions from storage and avoided emissions from energy savings were simulated for 91,786 trees planted from 2006 to 2010, of which only 30,813 (33.6 %) were estimated to survive.

Results and discussion

The MTLA program was estimated to release 17,048 and 66,360 t of fossil and biogenic CO₂ over the 40-year period, respectively. The total amount emitted (83,408 t) was slightly more than the ?77,942 t CO₂ that trees were projected to store in their biomass. The MTLA program will be a CO₂ sink if projected 40-year-avoided fossil fuel CO₂ emissions from energy savings (?101,679 t) and biopower (?1,939 t) are realized. The largest sources of CO₂ emissions were mulch decomposition (65.1 %), wood combustion (14.5 %), and irrigation water (9.7 %).

Conclusions

Although trees planted by the MTLA program are likely to be a net CO₂ sink, there is ample opportunity to reduce emissions. Examples of these opportunities include selecting drought-tolerant trees and utilizing wood residue to generate electricity rather than producing mulch.     

Large‐scale bioenergy from additional harvest of forest biomass is neither sustainable nor greenhouse gas neutral

Owing to the peculiarities of forest net primary production humans would appropriate ca. 60% of the global increment of woody biomass if forest biomass were to produce 20% of current global primary energy supply. We argue that such an increase in biomass harvest would result in younger forests, lower biomass pools, depleted soil nutrient stocks and a loss of other ecosystem functions. The proposed strategy is likely to miss its main objective, i.e. to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because it would result in a reduction of biomass pools that may take decades to centuries to be paid back by fossil fuel substitution, if paid back at all. Eventually, depleted soil fertility will make the production unsustainable and require fertilization, which in turn increases GHG emissions due to N₂O emissions. Hence, large‐scale production of bioenergy from forest biomass is neither sustainable nor GHG neutral.     

Life cycle assessment of corn grain and corn stover in the United States

Background, aim, and scope  The goal of this study is to estimate the county-level environmental performance for continuous corn cultivation of corn grain and corn stover grown under the current tillage practices for various corn-growing locations in the US Corn Belt. The environmental performance of corn grain varies with its farming location because of climate, soil properties, cropping management, etc. Corn stover, all of the above ground parts of the corn plant except the grain, would be used as a feedstock for cellulosic ethanol. Materials and methods  Two cropping systems are under investigation: corn produced for grain only without collecting corn stover (referred to as CRN) and corn produced for grain and stover harvest (referred to as CSR). The functional unit in this study is defined as dry biomass, and the reference flow is 1 kg of dry biomass. The system boundary includes processes from cradle to farm gate. The default allocation procedure between corn grain and stover in the CSR system is the system expansion approach. County-level soil organic carbon dynamics, nitrate losses due to leaching, and nitrogen oxide and nitrous oxide emissions are simulated by the DAYCENT model. Life cycle environmental impact categories considered in this study are total fossil energy use, climate change (referred to as greenhouse gas emissions), acidification, and eutrophication. Sensitivities on farming practices and allocation are included. Results  Simulations from the DAYCENT model predict that removing corn stover from soil could decrease nitrogen-related emissions from soil (i.e., N₂O, NO _x , and NO₃ ⁻ leaching). DAYCENT also predicts a reduction in the annual accumulation rates of soil organic carbon (SOC) with corn stover removal. Corn stover has a better environmental performance than corn grain according to all life cycle environmental impacts considered. This is due to lower consumption of agrochemicals and fuel used in the field operations and lower nitrogen-related emissions from the soil. Discussion  The primary source of total fossil energy associated with biomass production is nitrogen fertilizer, accounting for over 30% of the total fossil energy. Nitrogen-related emissions from soil (i.e., N₂O, NO _x , and NO₃ ⁻ leaching) are the primary contributors to all other life cycle environmental impacts considered in this study. Conclusions  The environmental performance of corn grain and corn stover varies with the farming location due to crop management, soil properties, and climate conditions. Several general trends were identified from this study. Corn stover has a lower impact than corn grain in terms of total fossil energy, greenhouse gas emissions, acidification, and eutrophication. Harvesting corn stover reduces nitrogen-related emissions from the soil (i.e., N₂O, NO _x , NO₃ ⁻). The accumulation rate of soil organic carbon is reduced when corn stover is removed, and in some cases, the soil organic carbon level decreases. Harvesting only the cob portion of the stover would reduce the negative impact of stover removal on soil organic carbon sequestration rate while still bringing the benefit of lower nitrogen-related emissions from the soil. No-tillage practices offer higher accumulation rates of soil organic carbon, lower fuel consumption, and lower nitrogen emissions from the soil than the current or conventional tillage practices. Planting winter cover crops could be a way to reduce nitrogen losses from soil and to increase soil organic carbon levels. Recommendations and perspectives  County-level modeling is more accurate in estimating the local environmental burdens associated with biomass production than national- or regional-level modeling. When possible, site-specific experimental information on soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics should be obtained to reflect the system more accurately. The allocation approach between corn grain and stover significantly affects the environmental performance of each. The preferred allocation method is the system expansion approach where incremental fuel usage, additional nutrients in the subsequent growing season, and changes in soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics due to removing corn stover are assigned to only the collected corn stover.     

Recycle,Bury, or Burn Wood Waste Biomass?: LCA Answer Depends on Carbon Accounting,Emissions Controls,Displaced Fuels,and Impact Costs

This study extends existing life cycle assessment (LCA) literature by assessing seven environmental burdens and an overall monetized environmental score for eight recycle, bury, or burn options to manage clean wood wastes generated at construction and demolition activity sites. The study assesses direct environmental impacts along with substitution effects from displacing fossil fuels and managed forest wood sourcing activities. Follow‐on effects on forest carbon stocks, land use, and fuel markets are not assessed. Sensitivity analysis addresses landfill carbon storage and biodegradation rates, atmospheric emissions controls, displaced fuel types, and two alternative carbon accounting methods commonly used for waste management LCAs. Base‐case carbon accounting considers emissions and uptakes of all biogenic and fossil carbon compounds, including biogenic carbon dioxide. Base‐case results show that recycling options (recycling into reconstituted wood products or into wood pulp for papermaking) rank better than all burning or burying options for overall monetized score as well as for climate impacts, except that wood substitution for coal in industrial boilers is slightly better than recycling for the climate. Wood substitution for natural gas boiler fuel has the highest environmental impacts. Sensitivity analysis shows the overall monetized score rankings for recycling options to be robust except for the carbon accounting method, for which all options are highly sensitive. Under one of the alternative methods, wood substitution for coal boiler fuel and landfill options with high methane capture efficiency are the best for the overall score; recycling options are next to the worst. Under the other accounting alternative, wood substitution for coal and waste‐to‐energy are the best, followed by recycling options.     

The role of bioenergy and biochemicals in CO2 mitigation through the energy system – a scenario analysis for the Netherlands

Bioenergy as well as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage are key options to embark on cost‐efficient trajectories that realize climate targets. Most studies have not yet assessed the influence on these trajectories of emerging bioeconomy sectors such as biochemicals and renewable jet fuels (RJFs). To support a systems transition, there is also need to demonstrate the impact on the energy system of technology development, biomass and fossil fuel prices. We aim to close this gap by assessing least‐cost pathways to 2030 for a number of scenarios applied to the energy system of the Netherlands, using a cost‐minimization model. The type and magnitude of biomass deployment are highly influenced by technology development, fossil fuel prices and ambitions to mitigate climate change. Across all scenarios, biomass consumption ranges between 180 and 760 PJ and national emissions between 82 and 178 Mt CO₂. High technology development leads to additional 100–270 PJ of biomass consumption and 8–20 Mt CO₂ emission reduction compared to low technology development counterparts. In high technology development scenarios, additional emission reduction is primarily achieved by bioenergy and carbon capture and storage. Traditional sectors, namely industrial biomass heat and biofuels, supply 61–87% of bioenergy, while wind turbines are the main supplier of renewable electricity. Low technology pathways show lower biochemical output by 50–75%, do not supply RJFs and do not utilize additional biomass compared to high technology development. In most scenarios the emission reduction targets for the Netherlands are not met, as additional reduction of 10–45 Mt CO₂ is needed. Stronger climate policy is required, especially in view of fluctuating fossil fuel prices, which are shown to be a key determinant of bioeconomy development. Nonetheless, high technology development is a no‐regrets option to realize deep emission reduction as it also ensures stable growth for the bioeconomy even under unfavourable conditions.     

Impacts of biogenic CO2 emissions on human health and terrestrial ecosystems: the case of increased wood extraction for bioenergy production on a global scale

Biofuels are a potentially important source of energy for our society. Common practice in life cycle assessment (LCA) of bioenergy has been to assume that any carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission related to biomass combustion equals the amount absorbed in biomass, thus assuming no climate change impacts. Recent developments show the significance of contributions of biogenic CO₂ emissions during the time they stay in the atmosphere. The goal of this article is to develop a global, spatially explicit method to quantify the potential impact on human health and terrestrial ecosystems of biogenic carbon emissions coming from forest wood extraction for biofuel production. For this purpose, changes in aboveground carbon stock (ΔC_forest) due to an increase in wood extraction via changes in rotation time are simulated worldwide with a 0.5° × 0.5° grid resolution. Our results show that both impacts and benefits can be obtained. When the extraction increase is reached by creating a longer rotation time, new growth is allowed resulting in carbon benefits. In a case study, we assessed the life cycle impacts of heat production via wood to determine the significance of including biogenic CO₂ emissions due to changes in forest management. Impacts of biogenic CO₂ dominate the total climate change impacts from a wood stove. Depending on the wood source country, climate change impacts due to heat production from wood either have an important share in the overall impacts on human health and terrestrial ecosystems, or allow for a large additional CO₂ sink.     

Renewable Energy from Willow Biomass Crops: Life Cycle Energy,Environmental and Economic Performance

Short-rotation woody crops (SRWC) along with other woody biomass feedstocks will play a significant role in a more secure and sustainable energy future for the United States and around the world. In temperate regions, shrub willows are being developed as a SRWC because of their potential for high biomass production in short time periods, ease of vegetative propagation, broad genetic base, and ability to resprout after multiple harvests. Understanding and working with willow's biology is important for the agricultural and economic success of the system.

The energy, environmental, and economic performance of willow biomass production and conversion to electricity is evaluated using life cycle modeling methods. The net energy ratio (electricity generated/life cycle fossil fuel consumed) for willow ranges from 10 to 13 for direct firing and gasification processes. Reductions of 70 to 98 percent (compared to U.S. grid generated electricity) in greenhouse gas emissions as well as NO_x, SO₂, and particulate emissions are achieved.

Despite willow's multiple environmental and rural development benefits, its high cost of production has limited deployment. Costs will be lowered by significant improvements in yields and production efficiency and by valuing the system's environmental and rural development benefits. Policies like the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), federal biomass tax credits and renewable portfolio standards will make willow cost competitive in the near term.

The avoided air pollution from the substitution of willow for conventional fossil fuel generated electricity has an estimated damage cost of $0.02 to $0.06 kWh^?1. The land intensity of about 4.9 × 10^?5 ha-yr/kWh is greater than other renewable energy sources. This may be considered the most significant limitation of willow, but unlike other biomass crops such as corn it can be cultivated on the millions of hectares of marginal agricultural lands, improving site conditions, soil quality and landscape diversity. A clear advantage of willow biomass compared to other renewables is that it is a stock resource whereas wind and PV are intermittent. With only 6 percent of the current U.S. energy consumption met by renewable sources the accelerated development of willow biomass and other renewable energy sources is critical to address concerns of energy security and environmental impacts associated with fossil fuels.     

Maximum impacts of future reforestation or deforestation on atmospheric CO2

There is scope for land‐use changes to increase or decrease CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere over the next century. Here we make simple but robust calculations of the maximum impact of such changes. Historical land‐use changes (mostly deforestation) and fossil fuel emissions have caused an increase in atmospheric concentration of CO₂ of 90 ppm between the pre‐industrial era and year 2000. The projected range of CO₂ concentrations in 2100, under a range of emissions scenarios developed for the IPCC, is 170–600 ppm above 2000 levels. This range is mostly due to different assumptions regarding fossil fuel emissions. If all of the carbon so far released by land‐use changes could be restored to the terrestrial biosphere, atmospheric CO₂ concentration at the end of the century would be about 40–70 ppm less than it would be if no such intervention had occurred. Conversely, complete global deforestation over the same time frame would increase atmospheric concentrations by about 130–290 ppm. These are extreme assumptions; the maximum feasible reforestation and afforestation activities over the next 50 years would result in a reduction in CO₂ concentration of about 15–30 ppm by the end of the century. Thus the time course of fossil fuel emissions will be the major factor in determining atmospheric CO₂ concentrations for the foreseeable future.