Range shift promotes the formation of stable range edges

Aim I investigate the counter‐intuitive possibility that range shift promotes the formation of stable range edges. This might be expected because: (1) range‐shifting populations typically evolve increased dispersal on the expanding range edge; (2) increased dispersal steepens the relative slope of environmental gradients (gradients appear steeper to a more dispersive population); and (3) environmental gradients that are steep relative to dispersal encourage the formation of stable range edges (when gradients appear steep, adaptation on the range edge is swamped by maladapted genes). Methods I test the idea that populations take longer to evolve across an environmental gradient when those populations have already undergone a period of spread. I do this using an individual‐based coupled map lattice simulation, in which individuals carry heritable traits for dispersal probability and environment‐specific fitness. Results Numerous simulations across parameter space confirm that a period of range shift almost always results in a longer time to evolve through an environmental gradient. This occurs because of both the mechanism described above and the erosion of adaptive variation resulting from the serial foundering that occurs during range advance. Main conclusions This result suggests that species may often shift their range due to intrinsic changes in the population rather than extrinsic changes in the environment. The result also suggests a new mechanism regulating the speed of invasion, and sounds a cautionary note for climate change impacts: the longer a species tracks climate change, the less able it may be to track that change into the future.     

Strong genetic differentiation but not local adaptation toward the range limit of a coastal dune plant

All species have limited geographic distributions; but the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms causing range limits are largely unknown. That many species’ geographic range limits are coincident with niche limits suggests limited evolutionary potential of marginal populations to adapt to conditions experienced beyond the range. We provide a test of range limit theory by combining population genetic analysis of microsatellite polymorphisms with a transplant experiment within, at the edge of, and 60 km beyond the northern range of a coastal dune plant. Contrary to expectations, lifetime fitness increased toward the range limit with highest fitness achieved by most populations at and beyond the range edge. Genetic differentiation among populations was strong, with very low, nondirectional gene flow suggesting range limitation via constraints to dispersal. In contrast, however, local adaptation was negligible, and a distance‐dependent decline in fitness only occurred for those populations furthest from home when planted beyond the range limit. These results challenge a commonly held assumption that stable range limits match niche limits, but also raise questions about the unique value of peripheral populations in expanding species’ geographical ranges.     

Evolved dispersal strategies at range margins

Dispersal is a key component of a species''s ecology and will be under different selection pressures in different parts of the range. For example, a long-distance dispersal strategy suitable for continuous habitat at the range core might not be favoured at the margin, where the habitat is sparse. Using a spatially explicit, individual-based, evolutionary simulation model, the dispersal strategies of an organism that has only one dispersal event in its lifetime, such as a plant or sessile animal, are considered. Within the model, removing habitat, increasing habitat turnover, increasing the cost of dispersal, reducing habitat quality or altering vital rates imposes range limits. In most cases, there is a clear change in the dispersal strategies across the range, although increasing death rate towards the margin has little impact on evolved dispersal strategy across the range. Habitat turnover, reduced birth rate and reduced habitat quality all increase evolved dispersal distances at the margin, while increased cost of dispersal and reduced habitat density lead to lower evolved dispersal distances at the margins. As climate change shifts suitable habitat poleward, species ranges will also start to shift, and it will be the dispersal capabilities of marginal populations, rather than core populations, that will influence the rate of range shifting.     

The evolution of thermal performance can constrain dispersal during range shifting

Organisms can cope with changing temperature under climate change by either adapting to the temperature at which they perform best and/or by dispersing to more benign locations. The evolution of a new thermal niche during range shifting is, however, expected to be strongly constrained by genetic load because spatial sorting is known to induce fast evolution of dispersal. To broaden our understanding of this interaction, we studied the joint evolution of dispersal and thermal performance curves (TPCs) of a population during range shifting by applying an individual-based spatially explicit model. Always, TPCs adapted to the local thermal conditions. Remarkably, this adaptation coincided with an evolution of dispersal at the shifting range front being equally high or lower than at the trailing edge. This optimal strategy reduces genetic load and highlights that evolutionary dynamics during range shifting change when crucial traits such as dispersal and thermal performance jointly evolve.     

Local adaptation and the evolution of species’ ranges under climate change

The potential impact of climate change on biodiversity is well documented. A well developed range of statistical methods currently exists that projects the possible future habitat of a species directly from the current climate and a species distribution. However, studies incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes remain limited. Here, we focus on the potential role that local adaptation to climate may play in driving the range dynamics of sessile organisms. Incorporating environmental adaptation into a stochastic simulation yields several new insights. Counter-intuitively, our simulation results suggest that species with broader ranges are not necessarily more robust to climate change. Instead, species with broader ranges can be more susceptible to extinction as locally adapted genotypes are often blocked from range shifting by the presence of cooler adapted genotypes that persist even when their optimum climate has left them behind. Interestingly, our results also suggest that it will not always be the cold-adapted phenotypes that drive polewards range expansion. Instead, range shifts may be driven by phenotypes conferring adaptation to conditions prevalent towards the centre of a species’ equilibrium distribution. This may have important consequences for the conservation method termed predictive provenancing. These initial results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation in determining how species will respond to climate change and we argue that this is an area requiring urgent theoretical and empirical attention.     

Local adaptation at the range peripheries of Sitka spruce

High‐dispersal rates in heterogeneous environments and historical rapid range expansion can hamper local adaptation; however, we often see clinal variation in high‐dispersal tree species. To understand the mechanisms of the species’ distribution, we investigated local adaptation and adaptive plasticity in a range‐wide context in Sitka spruce, a wind‐pollinated tree species that has recently expanded its range after glaciations. Phenotypic traits were observed using growth chamber experiments that mimicked temperature and photoperiodic regimes from the limits of the species realized niche. Bud phenology exhibited parallel reaction norms among populations; however, putatively adaptive plasticity and strong divergent selection were seen in bud burst and bud set timing respectively. Natural selection appears to have favoured genotypes that maximize growth rate during available frost‐free periods in each environment. We conclude that Sitka spruce has developed local adaptation and adaptive plasticity throughout its range in response to current climatic conditions despite generally high pollen flow and recent range expansion.     

Wrong place,wrong time: climate change‐induced range shift across fragmented habitat causes maladaptation and declined population size in a modelled bird species

Many species are locally adapted to decreased habitat quality at their range margins, and therefore show genetic differences throughout their ranges. Under contemporary climate change, range shifts may affect evolutionary processes at the expanding range margin due to founder events. In addition, populations that are affected by such founder events will, in the course of time, become located in the range centre. Recent studies investigated evolutionary changes at the expanding range margin, but have not assessed eventual effects across the species' range. We explored the possible influence of range shift on the level of adaptation throughout the species' total range. For this we used a spatially explicit, individual‐based simulation model of a woodland bird, parameterized after the middle spotted woodpecker ( Dendrocopos medius) in fragmented habitat. We simulated its range under climate change, and incorporated genetic differences at a single locus that determined the individual's degree of adaptation to optimal temperature conditions. Generalist individuals had a large thermal tolerance, but relatively low overall fitness, whereas climate specialists had high fitness combined with a small thermal tolerance. In equilibrium, the populations in the range centre were comprised of the specialists, whereas the generalists dominated the margins. In contrast, under temperature increase, the generalist numbers increased at the expanding margin and eventually also occupied the centre of the shifting range, whereas the specialists were located in the retracting margins. This was caused by founder events and led to overall maladaptation of the species, which resulted in a reduced metapopulation size and thus impeded the species' persistence. We therefore found no evidence for a complementary effect of local adaptation and range shifts on species' survival. Instead, we showed that founder events can cause local maladaptation which can amplify throughout the species' range, and, as such, hamper the species' persistence under climate change.     

Racing against change: understanding dispersal and persistence to improve species' conservation prospects

Climate change is contributing to the widespread redistribution, and increasingly the loss, of species. Geographical range shifts among many species were detected rapidly after predictions of the potential importance of climate change were specified 35 years ago: species are shifting their ranges towards the poles and often to higher elevations in mountainous areas. Early tests of these predictions were largely qualitative, though extraordinarily rapid and broadly based, and statistical tests distinguishing between climate change and other global change drivers provided quantitative evidence that climate change had already begun to cause species’ geographical ranges to shift. I review two mechanisms enabling this process, namely development of approaches for accounting for dispersal that contributes to range expansion, and identification of factors that alter persistence and lead to range loss. Dispersal in the context of range expansion depends on an array of processes, like population growth rates in novel environments, rates of individual species movements to new locations, and how quickly areas of climatically tolerable habitat shift. These factors can be tied together in well-understood mathematical frameworks or modelled statistically, leading to better prediction of extinction risk as climate changes. Yet, species'' increasing exposures to novel climate conditions can exceed their tolerances and raise the likelihood of local extinction and consequent range losses. Such losses are the consequence of processes acting on individuals, driven by factors, such as the growing frequency and severity of extreme weather, that contribute local extinction risks for populations and species. Many mechanisms can govern how species respond to climate change, and rapid progress in global change research creates many opportunities to inform policy and improve conservation outcomes in the early stages of the sixth mass extinction.     

Managed relocation as an adaptation strategy for mitigating climate change threats to the persistence of an endangered lizard

The distributional ranges of many species are contracting with habitat conversion and climate change. For vertebrates, informed strategies for translocations are an essential option for decisions about their conservation management. The pygmy bluetongue lizard, Tiliqua adelaidensis, is an endangered reptile with a highly restricted distribution, known from only a small number of natural grassland fragments in South Australia. Land‐use changes over the last century have converted perennial native grasslands into croplands, pastures and urban areas, causing substantial contraction of the species' range due to loss of essential habitat. Indeed, the species was thought to be extinct until its rediscovery in 1992. We develop coupled‐models that link habitat suitability with stochastic demographic processes to estimate extinction risk and to explore the efficacy of potential climate adaptation options. These coupled‐models offer improvements over simple bioclimatic envelope models for estimating the impacts of climate change on persistence probability. Applying this coupled‐model approach to T. adelaidensis, we show that: (i) climate‐driven changes will adversely impact the expected minimum abundance of populations and could cause extinction without management intervention, (ii) adding artificial burrows might enhance local population density, however, without targeted translocations this measure has a limited effect on extinction risk, (iii) managed relocations are critical for safeguarding lizard population persistence, as a sole or joint action and (iv) where to source and where to relocate animals in a program of translocations depends on the velocity, extent and nonlinearities in rates of climate‐induced habitat change. These results underscore the need to consider managed relocations as part of any multifaceted plan to compensate the effects of habitat loss or shifting environmental conditions on species with low dispersal capacity. More broadly, we provide the first step towards a more comprehensive framework for integrating extinction risk, managed relocations and climate change information into range‐wide conservation management.     

Increased seed dispersal potential towards geographic range limits in a Pacific coast dune plant

Dispersal may be favoured at geographic range edges by unstable population and metapopulation dynamics. However, dispersal may also evolve in response to geographic variation in other life-history traits, especially the mating system. Here, increased dispersal at range margins was tested for with a range-wide analysis of seed dispersal and mating system traits in Abronia umbellata, a plant endemic to Pacific coastal dunes of North America. Seeds disperse within winged anthocarps. Anthocarps from 34 populations varied widely in wing size (mass-corrected wing index). Wing index correlated negatively with threshold wind velocity for dispersal in wind tunnel tests, suggesting that wings facilitate tumbling over open sandy substrate. As predicted, wing index increased and threshold velocity decreased towards both range limits. Flower size, herkogamy and self-incompatibility declined towards range limits, indicating a shift to self-fertilization, and flower size and wing index correlated negatively. However, the increase in wing index towards range limits remained after statistically controlling flower size. These results are consistent with selection favouring dispersal at range margins. The evolutionary lability of dispersal across the range may affect the interaction between selection and gene flow in the establishment and maintenance of geographic range limits.     

Successful despite poor flight performance: range expansion is associated with enhanced exploratory behaviour and fast development

Anthropogenic interference forces species to respond to changing environmental conditions. One possible response is dispersal and concomitant range shifts, allowing individuals to escape unfavourable conditions or to track the shifting climate niche. Range expansions depend on both dispersal capacity and the ability to establish populations beyond the former range. We here compare well‐established core populations with recently established edge populations in the currently northward expanding butterfly Lycaena tityrus. Edge populations were characterized by shorter development times and smaller size, a higher sensitivity to high temperature and an enhanced exploratory behaviour. The differences between core and edge populations found suggest adaptation to local climates and an enhanced dispersal ability in edge populations. In particular, enhanced exploratory behaviour may be advantageous in all steps of the dispersal process and may have facilitated the current range expansion. This study describes differences associated with a current range expansion, knowledge which might be useful for a better understanding of species responses to environmental change. We further report on variation between males and females in morphology and flight behaviour, with males showing a longer flight endurance and more pronounced exploratory behaviour than females.     

Local adaptation at range edges: comparing elevation and latitudinal gradients

Local adaptation at range edges influences species’ distributions and how they respond to environmental change. However, the factors that affect adaptation, including gene flow and local selection pressures, are likely to vary across different types of range edge. We performed a reciprocal transplant experiment to investigate local adaptation in populations of Plantago lanceolata and P. major from central locations in their European range and from their latitudinal and elevation range edges (in northern Scandinavia and Swiss Alps, respectively). We also characterized patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation in populations using molecular markers. Range‐centre plants of P. major were adapted to conditions at the range centre, but performed similarly to range‐edge plants when grown at the range edges. There was no evidence for local adaptation when comparing central and edge populations of P. lanceolata. However, plants of both species from high elevation were locally adapted when compared with plants from high latitude, although the reverse was not true. This asymmetry was associated with greater genetic diversity and less genetic differentiation over the elevation gradient than over the latitudinal gradient. Our results suggest that adaptation in some range‐edge populations could increase their performance following climate change. However, responses are likely to differ along elevation and latitudinal gradients, with adaptation more likely at high‐elevation. Furthermore, based upon these results, we suggest that gene flow is unlikely to constrain adaptation in range‐edge populations of these species.     

Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change

Dispersal is a key determinant of a population''s evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population''s evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population''s evolvability under rapid environmental change.     

Local adaptation primes cold‐edge populations for range expansion but not warming‐induced range shifts

According to theory, edge populations may be poised to expand species’ ranges if they are locally adapted to extreme conditions, or ill‐suited to colonise beyond‐range habitat if their offspring are genetically and competitively inferior. We tested these contrasting predictions by transplanting low‐, mid‐, and high‐elevation (edge) populations of an annual plant throughout and above its elevational distribution. Seed from poor‐quality edge habitat (one of two transects) had inferior emergence, but edge seeds also had adaptive phenology (both transects). High‐elevation plants flowered earlier, required less heat accumulation to mature seed, and so achieved higher lifetime fitness at and above the range edge. Experimental warming improved fitness above the range, but eliminated the advantage of local cold‐edge populations, supporting recent models in which cold‐adapted edge populations do not facilitate warming‐induced range shifts. The highest above‐range fitness was achieved by a ‘super edge phenotype’ from a neighbouring mountain, suggesting key adaptations exist regionally even if absent from local edge populations.     

Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

How populations of long‐living species respond to climate change depends on phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation processes. Marginal populations are expected to have lags in adaptation (i.e. differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes population fitness and the local climate) because they receive pre‐adapted alleles from core populations preventing them from reaching a local optimum in their climatically marginal habitat. Yet, whether adaptation lags in marginal populations are a common feature across phylogenetically and ecologically different species and how lags can change with climate change remain unexplored. To test for range‐wide patterns of phenotypic variation and adaptation lags of populations to climate, we (a) built model ensembles of tree height accounting for the climate of population origin and the climate of the site for 706 populations monitored in 97 common garden experiments covering the range of six European forest tree species; (b) estimated populations' adaptation lags as the differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes tree height and the climate of the origin of each population; (c) identified adaptation lag patterns for populations coming from the warm/dry and cold/wet margins and from the distribution core of each species range. We found that (a) phenotypic variation is driven by either temperature or precipitation; (b) adaptation lags are consistently higher in climatic margin populations (cold/warm, dry/wet) than in core populations; (c) predictions for future warmer climates suggest adaptation lags would decrease in cold margin populations, slightly increasing tree height, while adaptation lags would increase in core and warm margin populations, sharply decreasing tree height. Our results suggest that warm margin populations are the most vulnerable to climate change, but understanding how these populations can cope with future climates depend on whether other fitness‐related traits could show similar adaptation lag patterns.     

Climate structures genetic variation across a species' elevation range: a test of range limits hypotheses

Gene flow may influence the formation of species range limits, and yet little is known about the patterns of gene flow with respect to environmental gradients or proximity to range limits. With rapid environmental change, it is especially important to understand patterns of gene flow to inform conservation efforts. Here we investigate the species range of the selfing, annual plant, Mimulus laciniatus, in the California Sierra Nevada. We assessed genetic variation, gene flow, and population abundance across the entire elevation‐based climate range. Contrary to expectations, within‐population plant density increased towards both climate limits. Mean genetic diversity of edge populations was equivalent to central populations; however, all edge populations exhibited less genetic diversity than neighbouring interior populations. Genetic differentiation was fairly consistent and moderate among all populations, and no directional signals of contemporary gene flow were detected between central and peripheral elevations. Elevation‐driven gene flow (isolation by environment), but not isolation by distance, was found across the species range. These findings were the same towards high‐ and low‐elevation range limits and were inconsistent with two common centre‐edge hypotheses invoked for the formation of species range limits: (i) decreasing habitat quality and population size; (ii) swamping gene flow from large, central populations. This pattern demonstrates that climate, but not centre‐edge dynamics, is an important range‐wide factor structuring M. laciniatus populations. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical study to relate environmental patterns of gene flow to range limits hypotheses. Similar investigations across a wide variety of taxa and life histories are needed.     

Living at the edge: lower success of eggs and hatchlings at lower elevation may shape range limits in an alpine lizard

Studies on range limits clarify the factors involved in the extent of species occurrence and shed light on the limits to adaptation. We studied the effects of elevational variation on the thermal dependence of fitness‐related traits (incubation time, hatching rate, and survivorship, size, and condition of hatchlings) to assess the role of incubation requirements in distribution range limits of the alpine endemic Iberolacerta cyreni. We captured gravid females from two core (summit) and two marginal (low‐elevation edge) populations, we incubated their eggs at three temperatures (22, 26, and 30 °C), and we monitored phenotypic effects. Viability of eggs and hatchlings decreased, independently of elevation, as incubation temperature increased. Hatching success and embryo survivorship were lower for clutches from low‐elevation areas than for those from mountain summits, showing that lizards face difficulties thriving at the low‐elevation edge of their range. Such difficulties were partly counterbalanced by faster postnatal growth at lower elevations, leading to increased adult size and higher fecundity. High incubation temperature had detrimental effects also at low‐elevation areas, and no elevational variation in the thermal dependence of hatchling traits was detected. We suggest that temperature effects on egg development and the lack of selective pressures strong enough to foster local adaptation at marginal areas, combined with extended egg retention, may contribute to shape the range limits of these alpine oviparous reptiles.     

Adaptive dispersal strategies and the dynamics of a range expansion

In species undergoing range expansion, newly established populations are often more dispersive than older populations. Because dispersal phenotypes are complex and often costly, it is unclear how highly dispersive phenotypes are maintained in a species to enable their rapid expression during periods of range expansion. Here I test the idea that metapopulation dynamics of local extinction and recolonization maintain distinct dispersal strategies outside the context of range expansion. Western bluebirds display distinct dispersal phenotypes where aggressive males are more dispersive than nonaggressive males, resulting in highly aggressive populations at the edge of their expanding range. I experimentally created new habitat interior to the range edge to show that, as on the range front, it was colonized solely by aggressive males. Moreover, fitness consequences of aggression depended on population age: aggressive males had high fitness when colonizing new populations, while nonaggressive males performed best in an older population. These results suggest that distinct dispersal strategies were maintained before range expansion as an adaptation for the continual recolonization of new habitat. These results emphasize similarities between range expansion and metapopulation dynamics and suggest that preexisting adaptive dispersal strategies may explain rapid changes in dispersal phenotypes during range expansion.     

QTL mapping of freezing tolerance: links to fitness and adaptive trade‐offs

Local adaptation, defined as higher fitness of local vs. nonlocal genotypes, is commonly identified in reciprocal transplant experiments. Reciprocally adapted populations display fitness trade‐offs across environments, but little is known about the traits and genes underlying fitness trade‐offs in reciprocally adapted populations. We investigated the genetic basis and adaptive significance of freezing tolerance using locally adapted populations of Arabidopsis thaliana from Italy and Sweden. Previous reciprocal transplant studies of these populations indicated that subfreezing temperature is a major selective agent in Sweden. We used quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping to identify the contribution of freezing tolerance to previously demonstrated local adaptation and genetic trade‐offs. First, we compared the genomic locations of freezing tolerance QTL to those for previously published QTL for survival in Sweden, and overall fitness in the field. Then, we estimated the contributions to survival and fitness across both field sites of genotypes at locally adaptive freezing tolerance QTL. In growth chamber studies, we found seven QTL for freezing tolerance, and the Swedish genotype increased freezing tolerance for five of these QTL. Three of these colocalized with locally adaptive survival QTL in Sweden and with trade‐off QTL for overall fitness. Two freezing tolerance QTL contribute to genetic trade‐offs across environments for both survival and overall fitness. A major regulator of freezing tolerance, CBF2, is implicated as a candidate gene for one of the trade‐off freezing tolerance QTL. Our study provides some of the first evidence of a trait and gene that mediate a fitness trade‐off in nature.     

The magnitude of local adaptation under genotype‐dependent dispersal

Dispersal moves individuals from patches where their immediate ancestors were successful to sites where their genotypes are untested. As a result, dispersal generally reduces fitness, a phenomenon known as “migration load.” The strength of migration load depends on the pattern of dispersal and can be dramatically lessened or reversed when individuals move preferentially toward patches conferring higher fitness. Evolutionary ecologists have long modeled nonrandom dispersal, focusing primarily on its effects on population density over space, the maintenance of genetic variation, and reproductive isolation. Here, we build upon previous work by calculating how the extent of local adaptation and the migration load are affected when individuals differ in their dispersal rate in a genotype‐dependent manner that alters their match to their environment. Examining a one‐locus, two‐patch model, we show that local adaptation occurs through a combination of natural selection and adaptive dispersal. For a substantial portion of parameter space, adaptive dispersal can be the predominant force generating local adaptation. Furthermore, genetic load may be largely averted with adaptive dispersal whenever individuals move before selective deaths occur. Thus, to understand the mechanisms driving local adaptation, biologists must account for the extent and nature of nonrandom, genotype‐dependent dispersal, and the potential for adaptation via spatial sorting of genotypes.