基于集合卡尔曼滤波的南雄烟草LAI数据同化研究

叶面积指数(LAI)是表征烟草生长健康状态的重要指标之一,获取准确的LAI数据是监测烟草生长走势的重要步骤。以广东省南雄地区为试验区开展了集合卡尔曼滤波同化方法在烟草LAI的应用研究。通过野外实测得到南雄烟草生长期内的高光谱数据,并计算每个生长期的归一化植被指数(NDVI),依据NDVI值获得LAI测量数据;通过积温数据和实测LAI数据构建了符合南雄地区烟草LAI变化规律的LOGISTIC模型;并以LAI为研究变量,利用集合卡尔曼滤波数据同化技术融合NDVI数据计算得到的LAI和简化LOGSITIC模型拟合得到的LAI这两种不同的数据信息,获取实验区烟草生长期时间序列上的连续LAI数据。最后,进一步对比了数据同化方法、NDVI计算LAI方法和LOGISTIC模型拟合这3种方法获取烟草LAI的效果。结果显示:数据同化方法、NDVI计算LAI方法和LOGISTIC模型拟合3种方法均可一定程度上表征烟草LAI的变化状态,其中数据同化方法拟合效果最优。实验发现NDVI计算LAI方法在烟草生长前后期LAI值出现偏大或偏小的异常情况;LOGISTIC模型拟合则不能有效的描述烟草LAI的突发性变化;同化方法综合作物生长模型和遥感监测的优势,能够动态调节参数得到LAI优化结果,同化后LAI结果和真实值吻合,变化曲线更符合烟草的实际生长状况。     

以比生长速率时间曲线为基础的生物群体生长数学模型

构建了一个描述限制性环境条件下生物群体生长规律的数学模型。模型中比生长速率(μ)是时间(t)的函数。模型可以很好地拟合多种生物或生物细胞群体生长的延迟期、指数期和稳定期。该模型参数少,模型参数生物学意义明确,计算简单。     

基于神经网络原理的荧光寿命成像研究

荧光寿命成像技术(fhlorescence lifetime imaging,FLIM)是一种新颖且功能强大的、能用于复杂生物组织和细胞结构与功能分析的生物组织成像技术。传统的时域荧光寿命成像数据分析方法,由于没有考虑荧光分子团之间以及他们与周围环境的相互作用,可能导致复杂的连续分布荧光寿命这一实际情况,因此对生物组织中自发荧光发光强度衰减过程的实验数据拟合效果欠佳。文章提出利用人工神经网络(artificial neural network,ANN)原理拟合算法来计算生物荧光分子团衰减动力过程,该方法能有效地建立生物荧光分子团衰减动力过程的非线性模型,并且具有处理非线性模型能力强、鲁棒性好、拟合精度高和所需计算时间少等优点。通过计算证明,相对于单参量指数与多参量指数衰减函数,这种数据拟合方法对于某些荧光分子团的多槽基面效价测定样品(multi-well plate assays)的数据有更好的一致性和更小的计算量。同时在文章中讨论了将该拟合算法应用于荧光寿命成像的前景。     

海水中藻菌共培养体系对碳氮磷的吸收转化

海洋环境中,细菌和微藻之间的物质交换是生源要素在自然界中迁移转化的重要方式。为进一步了解生源要素的生物地球化学循环,在实验室模拟条件下,研究了共培养体系中营养盐和有机物在细菌和微藻之间的转换。通过纯培养中肋骨条藻(Skeletonema costatum)、东海原甲藻(Prorocentrum donghaiense)、天然海水中的细菌以及藻菌混合培养,分析了营养盐和有机物随藻菌生物量的变化情况,并计算了溶解有机碳(DOC)和溶解有机氮(DON)的浓度比值[(DOC/DON)a]。结果发现,在共培养体系中,细菌对中肋骨条藻的生长有抑制作用,对东海原甲藻影响不明显;中肋骨条藻有利于细菌生长,东海原甲藻抑制细菌生长,这种不同可能与微藻的粒径有关。海洋细菌在2种藻的指数生长均期均会促进微藻吸收氨氮(NH_4-N),但在生长末期NH_4-N以释放为主。硝氮(NO_3-N)的浓度与藻的生长呈负相关,但在衰亡期NO_3-N略有增加,表明NO_3-N再生所需时间较长。细菌对硝氮的吸收量较少,但对其再生有贡献。细菌和中肋骨条藻对磷酸盐(PO_4-P)的吸收存在竞争,但与东海原甲藻的竞争关系不明显。不同培养体系中DOC浓度变化不同,在藻菌共培养体系中增加较快,纯藻培养体系中增加缓慢,在纯菌培养体系中缓慢减少。通过对DOC与DON浓度比值的分析,发现用判断颗粒有机碳(POC)来源的方法可以分析DOC的来源。     

Xenorhabdus nematophila发酵动力学研究

在分批发酵中,研究了Xenorhabdus nematophila YL001的生长、基质消耗及抗菌物质产生的特性.基于Logistic方程和Luedeking-Piret方程,得到了描述分批发酵过程的动力学模型及模型参数,同时对实验数据与模型进行了验证比较.模型计算值与实验数据拟合良好,模型基本反映了Xenorhabdus nematophila YL001分批发酵过程的动力学特征.分批发酵中细胞生长与产物合成属于偶联型.     

基于SSD 法的持久性污染物水生态风险阈值研究

应用物种敏感度分布曲线法(SSD)分别计算了DDT、艾氏剂、狄试剂、异狄氏剂、七氯、毒杀酚、林丹、硫丹等8 类持久性有机污染物(POPs)对保护95%的淡水生物时在淡水环境中的浓度阈值(HC5), 水生生物对不同化学物质的敏感度差异较大, 其中对异狄氏剂敏感度最高, 其HC5 值为0.08 μg·L–1, 对毒杀酚、林丹的敏感性较低, 其HC5分别为1.35 μg·L–1、1.24 μg·L–1。以Sigmoidal 型函数为基本模型, 采用Sigmoid、logistic、Weibull、Gompertz、Hill、Chapman 六种多参数模型分别对DDT 的毒理数据进行了浓度对数累积频率拟合, 最后确定以Sigmoid, 5 parameters 函数进行SSD 拟合, 研究结果表明, 八类污染物质的SSD 拟合曲线R2 均大于0.96, 拟合程度高, 拟合效果较好, 能够反映不同物种毒理数据点的累积概率分布。     

陆地生态系统中低剂量毒物刺激作用及拟合模型研究进展

低剂量毒物刺激作用(hormesis)是在毒物剂量/效应关系中低剂量毒物可能表现出对生物生长的一种刺激作用.大量的实验数据表明毒物刺激作用发生的剂量低于未观察到毒性效应的剂量(NOAEL),毒物刺激作用的最大刺激效应一般是对照的130%～160%,是一种客观存在的剂量/反应现象.就毒物刺激作用的概念、机理、毒物刺激作用剂量/反应曲线的一些定量特点和模型的拟合等方面进行了综述,并用实例说明毒物刺激作用模型的最新拟合方法的应用,最后提出了目前毒物刺激作用研究中存在的问题及今后的研究方向.     

不同生长时期黄花蒿提取物对朱砂叶螨的生物活性

选用不同生长时期(4、5和6月)黄花蒿的根、茎、叶,采用30℃～60℃石油醚、60℃～90℃石油醚、乙醇、丙酮和水溶剂等溶剂,用顺序和平行提取方法获得81种提取物,测定其对朱砂叶螨的生物活性,同时,将81种提取物分别稀释至5mg.ml-1,测定其对朱砂叶螨的触杀毒力。结果表明:在杀螨活性方面,黄花蒿的杀螨活性随植株的生长呈增加的趋势,总体表现为6月>5月>4月。6、5和4月黄花蒿叶的丙酮平行提取物活性最强,5mg.ml-1浓度处理48h对朱砂叶螨的校正死亡率为74%～86%,它们对朱砂叶螨的致死中浓度(LC50)分别为0.84、0.94和1.38mg.ml-1;处理浓度为5mg.ml-1时,它们的致死中时(LT50)分别为24.61、27.63和37.23h。     

凉拌豆制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌生长模型建立的研究

单核细胞增生李斯特菌是凉拌豆制品中检出率较高的一种致病菌。本研究考察了温度(4℃、15℃、25℃、30℃和37℃)对凉拌豆制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌生长的影响,并采用SGompertz和SLogistic模型对不同温度下单核细胞增生李斯特菌的生长数据进行拟合;在此基础上,以拟合度(R2)、准确因子(A_f)和偏差因子(B_f)为指标,比较并建立了凉拌豆制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的二级生长模型。结果表明,SGompertz模型能更好的拟合凉拌豆制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌在不同温度下的生长数据,平方根模型能够较准确地预测凉拌豆制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的生长状况,因此依次选择此两种模型作为单核细胞增生李斯特菌在凉拌豆制品中的一级和二级生长模型,且模型具有可靠性。研究结果可为凉拌豆制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的定量风险评估提供依据。     

十三碳二元酸发酵过程菌体生长期动力学模型及其应用

介绍了由十三碳烷烃生产十三碳二元酸的发酵过程,对其中的菌体生长期的代谢过程进行了分析。提出了以CO₂释放率判断菌体生长状况的方法,据此可确定进入产酸期的最佳时间．建立了菌体生长期底物消耗及菌体生长的动力学模型,对模型参数进行了回归估值。并对菌体生长期进行了拟合。结果表明,模型的计算值和实测值吻合得较好,平均相对偏差为2．4％。利用所建模型对菌体生长期进行多种操作条件下的模拟计算,结果表明,提高蔗糖浓度及初始菌体浓度均能显著地提高菌体生长期结束时的菌体浓度。     

A comparison of three different stochastic population models with regard to persistence time

Results are summarized from the literature on three commonly used stochastic population models with regard to persistence time. In addition, several new results are introduced to clearly illustrate similarities between the models. Specifically, the relations between the mean persistence time and higher-order moments for discrete-time Markov chain models, continuous-time Markov chain models, and stochastic differential equation models are compared for populations experiencing demographic variability. Similarities between the models are demonstrated analytically, and computational results are provided to show that estimated persistence times for the three stochastic models are generally in good agreement when the models are consistently formulated. As an example, the three stochastic models are applied to a population satisfying logistic growth. Logistic growth is interesting as different birth and death rates can yield the same logistic differential equation. However, the persistence behavior of the population is strongly dependent on the explicit forms for the birth and death rates. Computational results demonstrate how dramatically the mean persistence time can vary for different populations that experience the same logistic growth.     

Critical thresholds for eventual extinction in randomly disturbed population growth models

This paper considers several single species growth models featuring a carrying capacity, which are subject to random disturbances that lead to instantaneous population reduction at the disturbance times. This is motivated in part by growing concerns about the impacts of climate change. Our main goal is to understand whether or not the species can persist in the long run. We consider the discrete-time stochastic process obtained by sampling the system immediately after the disturbances, and find various thresholds for several modes of convergence of this discrete process, including thresholds for the absence or existence of a positively supported invariant distribution. These thresholds are given explicitly in terms of the intensity and frequency of the disturbances on the one hand, and the population’s growth characteristics on the other. We also perform a similar threshold analysis for the original continuous-time stochastic process, and obtain a formula that allows us to express the invariant distribution for this continuous-time process in terms of the invariant distribution of the discrete-time process, and vice versa. Examples illustrate that these distributions can differ, and this sends a cautionary message to practitioners who wish to parameterize these and related models using field data. Our analysis relies heavily on a particular feature shared by all the deterministic growth models considered here, namely that their solutions exhibit an exponentially weighted averaging property between a function of the initial condition, and the same function applied to the carrying capacity. This property is due to the fact that these systems can be transformed into affine systems.

     

THE EQUIVALENCE OF AGE IN ANIMALS

1. A method of plotting growth curves is presented which is considered more useful than the usual method in bringing out a number of important phenomena such as the equivalence of age in different animals, difference in the shape and duration of corresponding growth cycles in different animals, and also in determinating the age of maxima without resorting to complicated mathematical computations. 2. It is suggested that after the third cycle is past the conceptional age of the maximum of the third cycle may be taken as the age of reference for estimating the equivalent physiological ages in different animals. Before the age of the third cycle, the maxima of the second and first cycles are most conveniently used as points of reference. 3. It is shown that the product of the conceptional age of the maximum of the third cycle by 13, gives a value which is, with the possible exception of man, very near to the normal duration of life of animals under the most favorable conditions of life. In other words, the equivalent physiological ages in different animals bear an approximately constant linear relation to the duration of their growth periods. 4. Attention is called to certain differences in the shape and duration of the corresponding growth cycles in different animals and of the effect of sex on these cycles.     

Modeling growth of a heterogeneous tumor

It has long been recognized that the growth of tumor population depends on the initial age distribution of the cells in the tumor and the age-dependent cellular birth rate. Deterministic dual-cell models have been available for sometime; these models take into account the effects of the resultant cell heterogeneity. Nevertheless, these models ignore various variables significantly affecting the growth, such as those characterizing the cells' inherent properties and environmental factors. Uncertainties, or fluctuations, arise when the growth is simulated with the models. Stochastic analysis of these fluctuations is the focus of the current work.Two types of cells are visualized to proliferate separately and to transform mutually during the process. The master equations of the system have been formulated through probabilistic population balance around a particular state by considering all mutually exclusive events. The governing equations for the means, variances, and covariance of the random variables have been derived through the system-size expansion of these nonlinear master equations. The stochastic pathways of the two different types of cells have been numerically simulated by the algorithm derived from the master equation for two different physical situations, one without and, the other, with the chemotherapeutic treatment. The results of the current study illuminate the significance of stochastically modeling the responses of the tumor to a variety of medicinal treatments: The coefficient of variation of the malignant cells' population magnifies with time under chemotherapeutic regimens. Consequently, the impact of the uncertainties in the exact number of malignant cells as expressed by this coefficient of variation is highly unpredictable. For example, it becomes increasingly uncertain if or how fast these cells will reactivate to become a full-blown carcinogenic tumor after treatment.     

The effect of low birth weight on height,weight and behavioral outcomes in the medium-run

A number of studies have documented negative long term effects of low birth weight. Yet, not much is known about the dynamics of the process leading to adverse health and educational outcomes in the long run. While previous studies focusing mainly on LBW effects on physical growth and cognitive outcomes have found effects of the same size at both school age and young adulthood, others have found a diminishing negative effect over time. The purpose of this paper was to bring new evidence to this issue by analyzing the medium run effects of low birth weight on child behavioral outcomes as well as physical growth at ages 6 months, 3½, 7½ and 11 years using data from the Danish Longitudinal Survey of Children. Observing the same children at different points in time enabled us to chart the evolution of anthropometric and behavioral deficits among children born with low birth weight and helped understanding the nature and timing of interventions.     

Linear age-dependent population growth with seasonal harvesting

A population growth is modelled by the Von Foerster PDE with accompanying Lotka-Volterra integral equation describing the birth rate; the age specific death and fertility rates are assumed to depend only on age and not time. A harvesting policy where a fraction of the population of age greater than a given age is harvested for a fraction of a given season. This introduces a time dependence, but this difficulty is circumvented by devising approximate timeindependent models whose birthrates bracket the true birthrate-the standard renewal equation theory applies to the approximate models so quantitative results can be obtained.The author wishes to thank Professors J. J. Levin and R. K. Miller for some useful remarks. This research was partially supported by NIH Grant GMO 7661-02.     

Risk spreading as an adaptive strategy in iteroparous life histories

It has long been conjectured, though without satisfactory proof, that life tables with a long reproductive span are advantageous in an environment where fecundity or immature survival rates fluctuate randomly. In the present analysis we recast the nonlinear Leslie matrix problem as an autoregressive time series model for the birth rate, with random addition and removal of newborn. This transformation renders the model linear with respect to the environmental variation, allowing ready solution for the ultimate population size and for the conditions resulting in stationarity of the population distribution. We show that for life tables where the fecundities of all adult age classes are the same (no restrictions are put on the survivorship schedule, or on the age at first reproduction), and where density dependence operates via total adult density, the realized growth rate is less than the growth rate calculated from the mean Leslie matrix associated with the population's growth history. The degree of the discrepancy increases with the environmental variability, and decreases with iteroparity, thus completing a proof which confirms the correctness of the initial conjecture for a class of biologically reasonable lifetable models.     

Use of Covariates and Survey Wave to Adjust for Nonresponse

Using covariates available on all sampled individuals along with an intensive follow‐up of nonrespondents is a useful approach to reduce the impact of nonresponse. We examined the performance of several different nonresponse models to account for such covariates and multiple survey waves to estimate the prevalence of birth control use in 106463 women taking the teratogenic drug Accutane. Nonrespondents to a first mailing were followed with two more mailings and then a telephone call. The first mailing had a response rate of 59.7 percent; the overall nonresponse rate was 15.2 percent. Age was available on all women and was strongly associated with both response and birth control use. We considered both multiple imputation and weighting strategies using information on age and time to response assuming that nonrespondents were: (i) like all respondents conditional on age, (ii) like reluctant respondents conditional on age, and (iii) projected from a model which includes trend. Simulation studies were used to examine the potential bias in this setting and we compared models under different assumptions about the missing data mechanism. Results describe the extent to which availability of covariate information and use of multiple waves improves estimation. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Executive functions of six-year-old boys with normal birth weight and gestational age

Impaired fetal development, reflected by low birth weight or prematurity, predicts an increased risk for psychopathology, especially attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Such effects cut across the normal range of birth weight and gestation. Despite the strength of existing epidemiological data, cognitive pathways that link fetal development to mental health are largely unknown. In this study we examined the relation of birth weight (>2500 g) and gestational age (37-41 weeks) within the normal range with specific executive functions in 195 Singaporean six-year-old boys of Chinese ethnicity. Birth weight adjusted for gestational age was used as indicator of fetal growth while gestational age was indicative of fetal maturity. Linear regression revealed that increased fetal growth within the normal range is associated with an improved ability to learn rules during the intra/extra-dimensional shift task and to retain visual information for short period of time during the delayed matching to sample task. Moreover, faster and consistent reaction times during the stop-signal task were observed among boys born at term, but with higher gestational age. Hence, even among boys born at term with normal birth weight, variations in fetal growth and maturity showed distinct effects on specific executive functions.     

杨树林全生长期LAI遥感估算模型适用性

基于时间序列的植被叶面积指数(LAI)估算方法一直是遥感领域研究的热点,对植被全生长期LAI进行估算以跟踪其生长情况具有重要的实用意义。以此为出发点,以滁州地区杨树林为研究对象,获取多时相环境卫星CCD(简称HJ-CDD)遥感影像,并利用LAI-2000同步测量杨树林叶面积指数(LAI)。使用归一化植被指数(NDVI)分别建立展叶期、花果期、叶面积稳定期和落叶始期的LAI估算模型,通过对比分析得到了全生长期LAI估算模型,并利用实测LAI对估算LAI进行了验证。最后进一步对该模型的适用性进行了验证,结果表明,此模型对于各个时期LAI的估算具有一定的适用性和有效性,可用于全生育期的遥感LAI生成,从而为LAI的动态变化监测提供了一种有效的研究思路和方法途径。