流域水碳过程耦合模拟——WaSSI-C模型的率定与检验

在复杂的气候变化条件下, 利用水碳耦合模型进行生态水文学研究成为主要的研究手段和途径。该文以杂谷脑河上游流域为例, 在确定生态水文模型WaSSI-C模拟尺度的基础上, 探讨水碳耦合模型在中国西南湿润地区的适用性。杂古脑河上游流域位于岷江上游, 隶属于长江流域。在分析和讨论了模型结构和机理的基础上, 分别对模型蒸散和融雪计算进行了补充改进, 以提高模型的适用性。将1988-1996年作为模型的率定期, 1997-2006年作为模型的验证期, 分别在率定期和验证期利用实测的径流数据和中分辨率成像光谱仪数据的总初级生产力、蒸散(ET)数据, 对模拟结果进行对比验证。并利用决定系数(R²)和Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NS)两个指标对模拟效果进行评价。流域总径流率定期和验证期对比验证的R²分别为0.86和0.78; NS分别为0.82和0.67。总生态系统生产力和ET验证期的R²分别为0.89和0.78。可见模型模拟结果的两个评价指标都处于较为理想的区间内, 说明WaSSI-C模型在研究区内具有较好的适用性。并对模型的蒸散计算方法进行了讨论, 在此基础上提出了模型中存在的问题和改进的方向。     

生理房室药动学模型

生理药动学模型较ｎ房室模型能更准确地描述药物在体内的处置过程,但在实际应用中由于其计算结果有较大的误差而限制其应用和推广．在生理模型中,某一组织器官中血液分布容积相对于单位时间的血流量来说,如果太大,就去给计算结果带来较大的误差．本文提出的生理房室模型可以减小这种误差,从而更准确地模拟药物在体内的处置过程．文中对一组模拟的生理和生化参数分别求出了生理房室模型和生理模型的数值解．通过两组解的比较,说明生理房室模型可以描述药物在体内处置过程中的细微变化．     

Maintenance requirements: energy supply from simultaneous endogenous respiration and substrate consumption

Abstract A model is presented that describes energy for maintenance purposes (ATP) as being obtained simultaneously from biomass degradation as well as from substrate degradation in excess of growth requirements. The ratio between both catabolic processes was taken to be growth rate dependent. As such, this approach is intermediate between established models; its significant features are negative growth and the absence of substrate consumption at zero substrate concentration, and the attainability of the maximum specific growth rate (the model parameter μ _max) at elevated substrate concentrations. As a simple case, the amounts of ATP obtained from direct substrate catabolism or from the degradation of an equivalent amount of biomass were taken as identical. Also, the maintenance demand in terms of ATP per unit time and biomass was taken to be constant. True growth rate dependency of maintenance can be implemented by relaxing either of these assumptions.     

An EMG-driven model applied for predicting metabolic energy consumption during movement

The relationship between mechanical work and metabolic energy cost during movement is not yet clear. Many studies demonstrated the utility of forward-dynamic musculoskeletal models combined with experimental data to address such question. The aim of this study was to evaluate the applicability of a muscle energy expenditure model at whole body level, using an EMG-driven approach.Four participants performed a 5-min squat exercise on unilateral leg press at two different frequencies and two load levels. Data collected were kinematics, EMG, forces and moments under the foot and gas-exchange data. This same task was simulated using a musculoskeletal model, which took EMG and kinematics as inputs and gave muscle forces and muscle energetics as outputs. Model parameters were taken from literature, but maximal isometric muscle force was optimized in order to match predicted joint moments with measured ones. Energy rates predicted by the model were compared with energy consumption measured by the gas-exchange data.Model results on metabolic energy consumption were close to the values obtained through indirect calorimetry. At the higher frequency level, the model underestimated measured energy consumption. This underestimation can be explained with an increase in energy consumption of the non-muscular mass with movement velocity.In conclusion, results obtained in comparing model predictions with experimental data were promising. More research is needed to evaluate this way of computing mechanical and metabolic work.     

Numerical model (switchable/dual model) of the human head for rigid body and finite elements applications

In this paper, a methodology for the development and validation of a numerical model of the human head using generic procedures is presented. All steps required, starting with the model generation, model validation and applications will be discussed. The proposed model may be considered as a dual one due to its capabilities to switch from deformable to a rigid body according to the application's requirements. The first step is to generate the numerical model of the human head using geometry files or medical images. The required stiffness and damping for the elastic connection used for the rigid body model are identified by performing a natural frequency analysis. The presented applications for model validation are related to impact analysis. The first case is related to Nahum's (Nahum and Smith 1970) experiments pressure data being evaluated and a pressure map generated using the results from discrete elements. For the second case, the relative displacement between the brain and the skull is evaluated according to Hardy's (Hardy WH, Foster CD, Mason, MJ, Yang KH, King A, Tashman S. 2001.Investigation of head injury mechanisms using neutral density technology and high-speed biplanar X-ray. Stapp Car Crash J. 45:337–368, SAE Paper 2001-22-0016) experiments. The main objective is to validate the rigid model as a quick and versatile tool for acquiring the input data for specific brain analyses.     

On the mechanistic underpinning of discrete-time population models with Allee effect

The Allee effect means reduction in individual fitness at low population densities. There are many discrete-time population models with an Allee effect in the literature, but most of them are phenomenological. Recently, Geritz and Kisdi [2004. On the mechanistic underpinning of discrete-time population models with complex dynamics. J. Theor. Biol. 228, 261-269] presented a mechanistic underpinning of various discrete-time population models without an Allee effect. Their work was based on a continuous-time resource-consumer model for the dynamics within a year, from which they derived a discrete-time model for the between-year dynamics. In this article, we obtain the Allee effect by adding different mate finding mechanisms to the within-year dynamics. Further, by adding cannibalism we obtain a higher variety of models. We thus present a generator of relatively realistic, discrete-time Allee effect models that also covers some currently used phenomenological models driven more by mathematical convenience.     

Conventional and newly developed bioheat transport models in vascularized tissues: A review

Heat transfer in a biological system is a complex process and its analysis is difficult. Heterogeneous vascular architecture, blood flow in the complex network of arteries and veins, varying metabolic heat generation rates and dependence of tissue properties on its physiological condition contribute to this complexity. The understanding of heat transfer in human body is important for better insight of thermoregulatory mechanism and physiological conditions. Its understanding is also important for accurate prediction of thermal transport and temperature distribution during biomedical applications. During the last three decades, many attempts have been made by researchers to model the complex thermal behavior of the human body. These models, viz., blood perfusion, countercurrent, thermal phase-lag, porous-media, perturbation, radiation, etc. have their corresponding strengths and limitations. Along with their biomedical applications, this article reviews various contextual issues associated with these models. After brief discussion of early bioheat models, the newly developed bioheat models are discussed in detail. Dependence of these models on biological properties, viz., thermophysical and optical properties are also discussed.     

物种分布模型在海洋潜在生境预测的应用研究进展

海洋生物的栖息分布与环境要素的关联性一直是海洋生态学研究的热点之一.近年来,物种分布模型被广泛应用于预测海洋物种分布、潜在适宜性生境评价等研究,为保护海洋生物多样性、防治外来物种入侵及制定渔业管理措施等提供了一条有效途径.物种分布模型主要包括生境适宜性指数模型、机理模型和统计模型.本文对物种分布模型的理论基础进行了归纳和总结,回顾了物种分布模型在预测海洋物种潜在地理分布研究中的开发与应用,重点介绍了不同类型统计模型在海洋物种潜在分布预测中的研究实例.比较各种选取变量和模型验证方法,认为赤池信息准则对于选取模型变量具有优势,Kappa系数和受试者操作特征曲线下面积在验证模型精度中应用最广泛.阐述了物种分布模型存在的问题及未来发展趋势,随着海洋生物生理机制研究的进一步深入,机理模型将是今后物种分布模型发展的重点.     

On the mechanistic underpinning of discrete-time population models with complex dynamics

We present a mechanistic underpinning for various discrete-time population models that can produce limit cycles and chaotic dynamics. Specific examples include the discrete-time logistic model and the Hassell model, which for a long time eluded convincing mechanistic interpretations, and also the Ricker- and Beverton-Holt models. We first formulate a continuous-time resource consumption model for the dynamics within a year, and from that we derive a discrete-time model for the between-year dynamics. Without influx of resources from the outside into the system, the resulting between-year dynamics is always overcompensating and hence may produce complex dynamics as well as extinction in finite time. We recover a connection between various standard types of continuous-time models for the resource dynamics within a year on the one hand and various standard types of discrete-time models for the population dynamics between years on the other. The model readily generalizes to several resource and consumer species as well as to more than two trophic levels for the within-year dynamics.     

土壤-植物-大气连续体水热、CO2通量估算模型研究进展

土壤-植物-大气连续体(SPAC)水热、CO2通量的准确估算对理解陆地和大气的物质和能量交换过程有着重要意义.重点阐述了基于过程的土壤-植物-大气连续体水热、CO2通量模型,综述了统计模型、综合模型及基于遥感的模型的发展过程.其中水热通量统计模型包括基于温度和湿度以及基于温度和辐射的方法;CO2通量统计模型包括基于气候因子或蒸散因子以及基于光能利用率的方法.水热通量过程模型包括大叶、双源、多源和多层的水热传输物理模型;CO2通量过程模型包括叶片尺度及由大叶、双叶和多层方法扩展到冠层尺度的生理生态模型以及光合-蒸腾耦合模型.综合模型包括生物物理模型、生物化学模型和生物地理模型.统计模型形式简单,资料易得,对大范围的水热通量模拟具有指导意义;过程模型准确的揭示了水热和CO2通量传输的物理和生理过程,是大尺度综合模型的基础.未来生态系统水热、CO2通量估算模型将集成各种技术手段进行多尺度网络观测和大尺度机理模拟.     

中国北方5种栎属树木多度分布及其对未来气候变化的响应

植物分布与气候之间的关系是预估未来气候变化对生态系统影响的实现基础。以往的物种分布模型通常以物种的分布区或者分布点的物种存在数据作为物种分布的响应变量。相较于物种存在数据, 多度反映了一个物种占用资源并把资源分配给个体的能力, 更能衡量物种对区域生态系统的影响。该研究通过野外调查获取了华北及周边地区1 045个样方的栎属树木多度, 利用广义线性模型、广义加性模型和随机森林模型模拟栓皮栎(Quercus variabilis)、麻栎(Q. acutissima)、槲栎(Q. aliena)、锐齿槲栎(Q. aliena var. acuteserrata)和蒙古栎(Q. mongolica) 5个树种多度的地理分布及未来2个不同时期(2050年和2070年)的潜在分布。结果表明: 随机森林模型对5个栎属树种的多度的拟合结果要优于广义线性模型和广义加性模型; 典型浓度路径(RCP) 8.5下的5个栎属树种在未来两个时期的多度变化幅度都要大于RCP 2.6下的变化, 在超过一半面积的区域中麻栎、槲栎、锐齿槲栎和蒙古栎的多度减少, 其中内蒙古东北部和黑龙江北部地区是5种栎属植物多度减少的集中分布地区。未来气候变化背景下, 需要加强对这几个区域的监测与物种保护。     

Computational framework to model and design surgical meshes for hernia repair

Surgical procedures for hernia surgery are usually performed using prosthetic meshes. In spite of all the improvements in these biomaterials, the perfect match between the prosthesis and the implant site has not been achieved. Thus, new designs of surgical meshes are still being developed. Previous to implantation in humans, the validity of the meshes has to be addressed, and to date experimental studies have been the gold standard in testing and validating new implants. Nevertheless, these procedures involve long periods of time and are expensive. Thus, a computational framework for the simulation of prosthesis and surgical procedures may overcome some disadvantages of the experimental methods. The computational framework includes two computational models for designing and validating the behaviour of new meshes, respectively. Firstly, the beam model, which reproduces the exact geometry of the mesh, is set to design the weave and determine the stiffness of the surgical prosthesis. However, this implies a high computational cost whereas the membrane model, defined within the framework of the large deformation hyperelasticity, is a relatively inexpensive computational tool, which also enables a prosthesis to be included in more complex geometries such as human or animal bodies.     

Using network models to approximate spatial point-process models

Spatial effects are fundamental to ecological and epidemiological systems, yet the incorporation of space into models is potentially complex. Fixed-edge network models (i.e. networks where each edge has the same fixed strength of interaction) are widely used to study spatial processes but they make simplistic assumptions about spatial scale and structure. Furthermore, it can be difficult to parameterize such models with empirical data. By comparison, spatial point-process models are often more realistic than fixed-edge network models, but are also more difficult to analyze. Here we develop a moment closure technique that allows us to define a fixed-edge network model which predicts the prevalence and rate of epidemic spread of a continuous spatial point-process epidemic model. This approach provides a systematic method for accurate parameterization of network models using data from continuously distributed populations (such as data on dispersal kernels). Insofar as point-process models are accurate representations of real spatial biological systems, our example also supports the view that network models are realistic representations of space.     

APPLICATION OF LAVSOE,AN EUTROPHICATION MODEL,TO BLOEMHOF DAM

SUMMARY

In 1985 the Department of Water Affairs introduced an effluent phosphate standard of 1 mg l^?1 (as P) in seven potentially sensitive catchments. Although this is an uniform standard, permits can be granted for effluents to exceed the standard in cases where it can be shown that the impact of the effluent on the water environment will be negligible. This policy requires the ability to predict the trophic response of waterbodies to different P loads. Two types of models were evaluated for this purpose; i.e., simple mass balance models and complex ecological models. This paper reports the results of a study undertaken to evaluate one of the complex ecological models.

The LAVSOE model, an eutrophication model for shallow lakes which was developed in Denmark, was evaluated as a management tool for the control of eutrophication at Bloemhof Dam.

To ensure that the basic underlying principles of LAVSOE were well understood and the assumptions not violated, the evaluation of LAVSOE followed the same procedure as model development; i.e., model construction check, a priori sensitivity analysis, calibration and verification.

The aim of the model construction check was to assure that the model did what it was designed to do after it was transferred onto the Water Affairs mainframe. During this phase two additional features were added to LAVSOE to accommodate South African conditions.

The aim of the a priori sensitivity analysis was to rank the parameters in order of sensitivity.

The model was calibrated by means of a trial-and-error procedure because it was simple and had heuristic value. LAVSOE could not be calibrated successfully for simulating the observed nutrient dynamics and phytoplankton growth In Bloemhof Dam.

In this paper, the main structure and the major processes of the LAVSOE model are introduced. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the reason for the unsuccessful calibration of LAVSOE on Bloemhof Dam are discussed. Modifications to LAVSOE to make it more applicable to turbid systems is proposed.     

植被冠层尺度生理生态模型的研究进展

随着人们对植物生命活动各个过程研究的不断深入,以植物生理过程、物理过程为基础的各种生理生态学模型逐渐发展起来,而植被冠层尺度生理生态学过程模型已成为生态系统模型的核心之一。目前植被冠层尺度的大叶模型、多层模型、二叶模型以其成熟的理论基础及对植被冠层的光合作用、蒸腾作用较为成功的模拟,得到了广泛的应用。3个模型都以光合作用-气孔导度-蒸腾作用耦合模型为基础,但又具有各自的特点。本文对3种模型的结构及特点进行了总结,并对其进行了比较,简要介绍了目前植被冠层尺度生理生态学模型的应用及存在的问题和发展状况。     

A unified approach to the Richards-model family for use in growth analyses: Why we need only two model forms

This paper advances a unified approach to the modeling of sigmoid organismal growth. There are numerous studies on growth, and there have been several proposals and applications of candidate models. Still, a lack of interpretation of the parameter values persists and, consequently, differences in growth patterns have riddled this field. A candidate regression model as a tool should be able to assess and compare growth-curve shapes, systematically and precisely. The Richards models constitute a useful family of growth models that amongst a multitude of parameterizations, re-parameterizations and special cases, include familiar models such as the negative exponential, the logistic, the Bertalanffy and the Gompertz. We have reviewed and systemized this family of models. We demonstrate that two specific parameterizations (or re-parameterizations) of the Richards model are able to substitute, and thus to unify all other forms and models. This unified-Richards model (with its two forms) constitutes a powerful tool for an interpretation of important characteristics of observed growth patterns, namely, [I] maximum (relative) growth rate (i.e., slope at inflection), [II] age at maximum growth rate (i.e., time at inflection), [III] relative mass or length at maximum growth rate (i.e., relative value at an inflection), [IV] value at age zero (i.e., birth, hatching or germination), and [V] asymptotic value (i.e., adult weight or length). These five parameters can characterize uniquely any sigmoid-growth data. To date most studies only compare what is referred to as the “growth-rate constant” or simply “growth rate” (k). This parameter can be interpreted as neither relative nor actual growth rate, but only as a parameter that affects the slope at inflection. We fitted the unified-Richards and five other candidate models to six artificial data sets, generated from the same models, and made a comparison based on the corrected Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICc). The outcome may in part be the result of the random generation of data points. Still, in conclusion, the unified-Richards model performed consistently well for all data sets, despite the penalty imposed by the AICc.     

Score Test for Conditional Independence Between Longitudinal Outcome and Time to Event Given the Classes in the Joint Latent Class Model

Summary .  Latent class models have been recently developed for the joint analysis of a longitudinal quantitative outcome and a time to event. These models assume that the population is divided in  G  latent classes characterized by different risk functions for the event, and different profiles of evolution for the markers that are described by a mixed model for each class. However, the key assumption of conditional independence between the marker and the event given the latent classes is difficult to evaluate because the latent classes are not observed. Using a joint model with latent classes and shared random effects, we propose a score test for the null hypothesis of independence between the marker and the outcome given the latent classes versus the alternative hypothesis that the risk of event depends on one or several random effects from the mixed model in addition to the latent classes. A simulation study was performed to compare the behavior of the score test to other previously proposed tests, including situations where the alternative hypothesis or the baseline risk function are misspecified. In all the investigated situations, the score test was the most powerful. The methodology was applied to develop a prognostic model for recurrence of prostate cancer given the evolution of prostate-specific antigen in a cohort of patients treated by radiation therapy.     

Sensitivity analysis of an energetic muscle model applied at whole body level in recumbent pedalling

Musculoskeletal models are used in order to describe and analyse the mechanics of human movement. In order to get a complete evaluation of the human movement, energetic muscle models were developed and were shown to be promising.

The aim of this work is to determine the sensitivity of muscle mechanical and energetic model estimates to changes in parameters during recumbent pedalling.

Inputs of the model were electromyography and joint angles, collected experimentally on one participant. The sensitivity analysis was performed on muscle-specific tension, physiological cross-sectional area, muscle maximal force, tendon rest length and percentage of fast-twitch fibres using an integrated sensitivity ratio. Soleus, gastrocnemius, vasti, gluteus and medial hamstrings were selected for the analyses.

The energetic model was found to be always less sensitive to parameter changes than the mechanical model. Tendon slack length was found to be the most critical parameter for both energetic and mechanical models even if the effect on the energetic output was smaller than on muscle force and joint moments.     

疾病自然史的随机模型

1前言疾病自然史是指疾病的临床发展过程以及转归〔1〕．有些疾病如早期糖尿病,早期青光眼,肿瘤的临床前状态,往往自觉无症状,一旦自己感觉有症状或临床发现,此时已属于中、晚期,难以取得较好的治疗效果,特别是肿瘤,已经发生了转移．为此,必须早期发现、早期治疗．因此自然史研究有着重要意义．在肿瘤的预防中,它决定着二级预防,筛查方案的优化以及筛查效果的评价．国内外许多文献报道了宫颈癌、乳腺癌、AIDS等自然史的研究成果．在疾病自然史研究中,一般是将疾病分为几个阶段或几个状态,对肿瘤的研究一般是将癌前状态分为几…     

工业微生物代谢网络模型的研究进展及应用

基因组规模代谢网络(Genome-scale metabolic network model,GSMM)是工业微生物菌株定向改造过程中一种极为重要的指导性工具,有助于研究者快速获取特定性状的工业微生物,因此越来越受到人们的关注。文中回顾了GSMM的发展历程,总结并评述了GSMM的构建方法,以4种重要工业微生物(枯草芽孢杆菌Bacillus subtilis、大肠杆菌Escherichia coli、谷氨酸棒杆菌Corynebacterium glutamicum和酿酒酵母Saccharomyces cerevisiae)为例,阐述了GSMM在工业微生物中的发展与应用。此外,还对GSMM未来的发展趋势进行了展望。