基于抚育间伐效应的落叶松人工林直径分布动态模拟

基于黑龙江省孟家岗林场长白落叶松人工林5块固定样地(其中1块为对照样地,4块为抚育间伐样地,断面积强度为3.7%~49.7%)1974—2014年(林龄为19～59 a)复测的31次胸径数据,采用三参数Weibull分布函数拟合5块样地各年份直径分布,研究了直径分布曲线随林龄的动态变化规律,并分析了抚育间伐对林分直径分布曲线及Weibull分布参数的动态影响.构建了基于抚育间伐效应的Weibull分布参数预测的联立方程组模型,分别采用三阶段最小二乘法及度量误差法估计了模型的参数.结果表明: 未间伐林分(对照)直径分布曲线随林龄增加由“高峰狭窄”(林木直径分布集中)状态逐渐向“低峰宽广”(林木直径分布分散)状态过渡;抚育间伐后,林木直径分布曲线均较抚育间伐前右偏加剧,峰度变高,径阶变窄,对称性下降;间伐强度越大,伐除的中小径阶树木越多,直径分布曲线较间伐前左侧截尾明显,峰度增高,径阶分布范围变小.低强度抚育间伐使得参数a值变大,b值变小,对参数c的影响不明显;高强度抚育间伐使得参数a的增量变大,b值变小,参数c值变小.参数预测联立方程组模型的拟合结果表明,参数b的预测模型拟合效果最好,R²>0.98;参数c预测模型拟合效果稍差,但R²>0.91;三阶段最小二乘法拟合结果与度量误差联立方程组方法区别不大,两种方法检验结果均较好,模型精度都>97%,拟合效率均>0.92.所建立的模型能够较好地模拟抚育间伐效应下落叶松人工林直径分布动态变化,为科学合理经营森林提供了依据.     

长白落叶松（Larix olgensis）工业人工林的模拟间伐

应用马尔柯夫过程理论,在获得林分直径转移概率的基础上,采用间伐最小径阶林木,最大径阶林木,中间径阶林木三种间伐方式,在保留不同密度情况下对长白落叶松工业人工林进行模拟间伐,提出了适宜的保留密度和相应的抚育间伐对象。结果表明：马尔柯夫过程确能反映长白落叶松工业人工林的直径转移过程,利用马尔可夫过程理论对长白落叶松工业人工林进行模拟间伐实现了依据培育时间来确定间伐方法和措施,提高了长白落叶松工业人工林经营管理的精准性;长白落叶松工业人工林成林后的间伐无论从培育森林方面,还是从取得木材、加大林分收益方面考虑,都应该以间伐小径阶的林木为主,注重培育I、II级木,间伐III, IV级木;20～25 a长白落叶松工业人工林间伐后的保留经营密度以0.7为宜。     

三种直径分布拟合模型在长白落叶松林分的实际应用

基于长白落叶松中龄纯林样地调查,采用相对直径法、指数函数法和Weibull分布函数法三种常用方法拟合林分胸径分布规律.结果表明,三种方法均能有效描述林分直径分布规律,特别是指数函数简单易行、拟合精度高、适用性强,可视为长白落叶松中龄林直径分布拟合的最优模型.     

基于分位数回归的长白落叶松人工林最大密度线

基于东北地区378块固定样地和415块临时样地的调查数据和Reineke方程,利用线性分位数回归技术建立了不同分位点(τ=0.90、0.95、0.99)下的长白落叶松人工林最大林分密度与林木平均胸径的关系模型,选出拟合长白落叶松人工林最大密度线的最优模型. 利用人为选取最大的拟合数据,采用最小二乘(OLS)和最大似然(ML)回归同时建立最大密度线模型. 采用极值统计理论的广义Pareto模型推算现实林分特定径阶的极限最大株数,进一步建立极限密度线模型. 将线性分位数回归模型与其他方法进行对比.结果表明: 在全部径阶范围内选取5个最大数据点拟合的方法能够得到现实林分的最大密度线,选取的样点过多会使模拟结果偏离最大密度线,且ML法要优于OLS法. 分位点为0.99的线性分位数回归模型能够取得与ML接近的拟合结果,但分位数回归模型参数的估计结果更稳定. 人为选取拟合数据具有一定的人为性,最终选取分位点为0.99的分位数回归模型为拟合最大密度线的最优模型,参数估计结果为k=11.790、β=-1.586,极限密度线模型的参数估计结果为k=11.820、β=-1.594. 所确定的极限密度线位置略高于最大密度线,但二者差异不明显. 由固定样地数据的验证结果可知,所建立的最大林分密度线及极限密度线能够对现实林分的最大密度及极限密度进行预测,为长白落叶松人工林的合理经营提供依据.     

基于线性分位数混合效应的辽东山区红松冠幅模型

冠幅是反映单木生长状态及构建林木生长收获模型的重要变量。本研究以辽东山区大边沟林场10～55年生红松人工林为对象,基于66块固定样地的2763株红松的每木检尺数据,选取冠幅基础模型,采用再参数化的方法引入单木竞争指标(R_d),利用哑变量的方法引入了林分密度、林层变量,构建不同分位点(0.50、0.90、0.93、0.95、0.96、0.99)的冠幅分位数回归模型,并与传统方法进行比较,选取模拟林分最大冠幅的最优分位点。为反映林分中单木冠幅在林木个体之间的差异,建立了基于样地水平的最优分位点的线性混合效应分位数回归冠幅模型,分析各变量对单木冠幅的影响。结果表明: 基于F统计检验,不同林分密度和林层的冠幅模型具有显著差异,在基础模型中引入林层、林分密度和竞争后,模型R_a²提高0.0104,均方根误差降低0.0115,均方误差降低为7.4%;与最小二乘法比较,分位数回归模型能够较好地模拟林分状态下的单木最大冠幅,并选出0.96分位点和0.93分位点作为上林层和下林层的分位数回归模型的最优分位点。引入混合效应的线性分位数回归模型的赤池信息准则、贝叶斯信息准则、HQ信息准则等评价指标优于传统分位数回归,参数标准误显著降低,混合效应的引入很好地解释了样地之间的差异。就上林层和下林层而言,林分密度越大,最大冠幅越小;相对直径越大,最大冠幅越大,其中林分密度对下林层的冠幅影响大于上林层,当林分密度足够大时,冠幅随着胸径的增大先增大后降低。本研究构建的基于混合效应的分位数回归模型能有效提高模型的拟合优度,今后可通过调控林分密度、适度抚育间伐等措施,实现对辽东山区红松人工林的科学营建和可持续发展。     

长白落叶松林生物量的模拟估测

利用样木收获法收集了34个样地中长白落叶松林分地上部分生物量信息,选取其中29个样地生物量信息分别与样地林分因子信息和TM遥感影像信息拟合建立生物量模型,利用其余5个样地的生物量信息进行模型精度检验和误差分析.结果表明：长白落叶松地上部分生物量均可用林分因子和遥感因子进行线性拟合;林分因子线性模型对长白落叶松中幼林地上生物量的估测精度较高（林分P=94.33%,遥感P=92.32%）,且检验误差较小（林分MRE=6%,遥感MRE=31%）,模型模拟效果较好;若只考虑长白落叶松中龄林,这2种模型的估测效果相当（林分模型和遥感模型的误差分别为329.9和313.6 t）.整体而言,林分因子模型估测长白落叶松树皮、干材和总生物量的效果优于遥感因子模型,对于中龄林来说,遥感模型估测叶花果、树枝和树冠生物量的效果较好.     

基于树冠竞争因子的落叶松人工林单木生长模型

基于黑龙江省佳木斯市孟家岗林场落叶松人工林14块固定标准地的两期调查数据(2007、2009年),通过分析树冠变量与林木生长的关系,构建了2个树冠竞争指数(CIa、CIb),并将其作为单木竞争指标构建了落叶松人工林与距离有关的单木生长模型。研究结果表明:文中提出的二个树冠竞争指数优于Hegyi竞争指数(CI),落叶松各个竞争指数与林木断面积生长量相关性大小顺序为CIbCIaCI。随着对象木影响圈的扩大,竞争指数趋于稳定,对模型的拟合效果有所提高。林木大小是影响落叶松单木生长的主要因子,胸径越大,单木生长量越大。通过引入与距离有关的树冠竞争指数将单木模型的拟合优度提高了5.6%。本文构建的与距离有关的单木生长模型可以很好地预估人工落叶松单木的断面积生长量。     

落叶松人工林单木模型的研究

根据吉林省松江河林业局所实测的落叶松人工林(Larix olgensis)临时标准地66块、固定标准地18块以及8块团状枝解析样地资料,通过对林分中优势木生长及树冠结构与动态的分析,提出适于树木生长的Korf方程并用来构造林木的潜在生长函数。选择林分密度指数(SDI)作为反映林分中林木之间平均拥挤指标。在单木竞争指标的选择上,通过引进树冠因子,并在与传统的竞争指标相比较的基础上,淡化距离因子的作用,应用优势木相对树冠表面积构造了与距离无关的单木竞争指标,以此建立了落叶松人工林单木生长模型。     

油松人工林单木邻体竞争模型

研究林木个体间竞争关系,建立以保留木为对象的单木邻体竞争模型对于人工林的抚育经营具有重要的作用。本研究以北京西山试验林场油松人工林为研究对象,采用改进的Hegyi竞争指数分析林木的竞争强度;以对象木胸径和空间相对位置为参数构造加权Voronoi图,选择S_i=n∑j = 1λ(α_(ij)-α_i)~a/L~b作为模型表达式,分析对象木与邻近的少数林木(3株或4株)之间的竞争关系并建立邻体竞争模型。结果表明,油松人工林林木间竞争较剧烈,密度越大、坡位越低的林分中林木间的竞争越强。以胸径和冠幅作为自变量构造的单木竞争模型具有较低的标准误,3-邻体竞争模型和4-邻体竞争模型的相关性分别为0.83和0.84。本研究基于Voronoi图和林冠面积建立单木邻体竞争模型,为优化林分空间结构、提高森林质量的单株木抚育择伐经营技术提供参考。     

干扰树间伐对杉木人工林林分生长和林分结构的影响

在浙江临安选择26年生杉木人工林进行干扰树间伐,以不间伐为对照,间伐3 a后,研究干扰树间伐对林分生长和林分结构的影响.结果表明:间伐3 a后,间伐林分单木平均胸径和单株平均材积生长量均显著高于对照,分别是对照林分的1.30和1.25倍;目标树的胸径和单株材积生长量均显著高于间伐林分一般树以及对照林分目标树和一般树,表明不同保留木对间伐的响应不一致.间伐后目标树的平均最近距离显著增加,生长空间较一般树明显扩大,目标树竞争压力释放显著,仅为间伐前的68.2%.间伐林分的林木株数仅为对照林分的81.5%,但蓄积生长量两者无显著差异.间伐3 a后,间伐林分14 cm径阶及以上林木株数提高了18.0%,显著高于对照林分的12.0%,表明干扰树间伐有利于较大径阶林木的生产.林木总体分布格局趋向于随机分布,符合林木分布格局随生长变化的一般性规律.干扰树间伐促进了杉木人工林的林分生长,优化了林分结构,有利于目标树的持续快速生长和较大径级林木的生产.     

Multilevel Nonlinear Mixed-Effect Crown Ratio Models for Individual Trees of Mongolian Oak (Quercus mongolica) in Northeast China

In this study, an individual tree crown ratio (CR) model was developed with a data set from a total of 3134 Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) trees within 112 sample plots allocated in Wangqing Forest Bureau of northeast China. Because of high correlation among the observations taken from the same sampling plots, the random effects at levels of both blocks defined as stands that have different site conditions and plots were taken into account to develop a nested two-level nonlinear mixed-effect model. Various stand and tree characteristics were assessed to explore their contributions to improvement of model prediction. Diameter at breast height, plot dominant tree height and plot dominant tree diameter were found to be significant predictors. Exponential model with plot dominant tree height as a predictor had a stronger ability to account for the heteroskedasticity. When random effects were modeled at block level alone, the correlations among the residuals remained significant. These correlations were successfully reduced when random effects were modeled at both block and plot levels. The random effects from the interaction of blocks and sample plots on tree CR were substantially large. The model that took into account both the block effect and the interaction of blocks and sample plots had higher prediction accuracy than the one with the block effect and population average considered alone. Introducing stand density into the model through dummy variables could further improve its prediction. This implied that the developed method for developing tree CR models of Mongolian oak is promising and can be applied to similar studies for other tree species.     

Growth and mortality patterns in a thinning canopy of post-hurricane regenerating rain forest in eastern Nicaragua (1990-2005)

One of the strongest hypothesis about the maintenance of tree species diversity in tropical areas is disturbance. In order to assess this, the effect of intensive natural disturbances on forest growth and mortality in a thinning canopy was studied after the landfall of hurricane Joan in 1988. We evaluated the growth and mortality rates of the 26 most common tree species of that forest in eastern Nicaragua. Permanent plots were established at two study sites within the damaged area. Growth and mortality rates of all individual trees > or = 3.18cm diameter at breast height were assessed annually from 1990 to 2005. During this period the forest underwent two phases: the building phase (marked by increased number of individuals of tree species present after the hurricane) and the canopy thinning phase (marked by increased competition and mortality). Our results from the thinning phase show that tree survival was independent of species identity and was positively related to the increase in growth rates. The analysis of mortality presented here aims to test the null hypothesis that individual trees die independently of their species identity. These findings were influenced by the mortality observed during the late thinning phase (2003-2005) and provide evidence in favor of a non-niche hypothesis at the thinning phase of forest regeneration.     

树木年龄和断面积对加拿大北方林树木死亡率的影响

以加拿大北部的杨树(Populus spp.)、斑克松(Pinus banksiana)、黑云杉(Picea mariana)为对象,采用长期定位试验,对134块固定样地的活立木及枯死木进行调查,并运用线性回归的方法研究树木年龄、断面积和林分类型对3种树木死亡率的影响.结果表明:随着树龄和断面积的增加,林木的死亡率呈上升趋势.杨树在斑克松林中的死亡率较高,而在黑云杉林中死亡率较低.在黑云杉林中,树龄是影响斑克松死亡率的主要因子;而在杨树林中,断面积是影响斑克松死亡率的重要因子;不同林分类型中树龄对黑云杉死亡率的影响显著.树种组成对树种的死亡率有显著影响;树木年龄、断面积和林分类型之间的交互效应对各树种的死亡率均有显著影响;不同林分类型中同一树种的死亡状况有明显差异.     

Observations and modeling of aboveground tree carbon stocks and fluxes following a bark beetle outbreak in the western United States

Bark beetle epidemics result in tree mortality across millions of hectares in North America. However, few studies have quantified impacts on carbon (C) cycling. In this study, we quantified the immediate response and subsequent trajectories of stand‐level aboveground tree C stocks and fluxes using field measurements and modeling for a location in central Idaho, USA that experienced an outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). We measured tree characteristics in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) plots spanning a range of structure and mortality conditions. We then initialized the forest vegetation simulator, an individual tree‐based model, with these measurements and simulated the response of aboveground production of C fluxes as well as trajectories of C stocks and fluxes in the coming decades. Mountain pine beetles killed up to 52% of the trees within plots, with more larger trees killed. C stocks in lodgepole pine were reduced by 31–83% following the outbreak, and plot‐level C fluxes decreased 28–73%. Modeled C stocks increased nearly continuously following the infestation, recovering to preoutbreak levels in 25 years or less. Simulated aboveground tree C fluxes increased following the immediate postoutbreak decrease, then subsequently declined. Substantial variability of C stocks and fluxes among plots resulted from the number and size of killed and surviving trees. Our study illustrates that bark beetle epidemics alter forest C cycling unlike stand‐replacement wildfires or clear‐cut harvests, due in part to incomplete mortality coupled with the preference by beetles for larger trees. The dependency of postoutbreak C stocks and fluxes on stand structure suggests that C budget models and studies in areas experiencing mountain pine beetle disturbances need to include size distribution of trees for the most accurate results.     

落叶松人工林生物量模型研究

以不同年龄、不同密度的落叶松（Larix olgensis）人工林为研究对象,基于19块标准地95株标准木的树干解析、枝解析的生物量数据,研究不同大小树木因子（胸径、树高、冠幅等）与单木各分量（树干、枝、叶）生物量之间的关系,应用统计分析软件建立落叶松单木各部分生物量的回归模型。利用单木各部分生物量回归模型方程估测落叶松人工林各林分的总生物量,并分析了不同年龄及林分密度下林分生物量的变化规律：林分的生物量随年龄的增加而不断增长,树干的生物量的比例是最大的,同时也是随着年龄的增长而不断的增加,而树枝和树叶的生物量的比例比较小,林分的生物量随林分密度的增加而不断增加。最后建立林分生物量模型,为落叶松人工林的研究提供基础资料,为了解落叶松人工林的生产力,对其进行合理经营提供科学依据。     

Radial and stand‐level thinning treatments: 15‐year growth response of legacy ponderosa and Jeffrey pine trees

Restoration efforts to improve vigor of large, old trees and decrease risk to high‐intensity wildland fire and drought‐mediated insect mortality often include reductions in stand density. We examined 15‐year growth response of old ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi) trees in northeastern California, U.S.A. to two levels of thinning treatments compared to an untreated (control) area. Density reductions involved radial thinning (thinning 9.1 m around individual trees) and stand thinning. Annual tree growth in the stand thinning increased immediately following treatment and was sustained over the 15 years. In contrast, radial thinning did not increase growth, but slowed decline compared to control trees. Available soil moisture was higher in the stand thinning than the control for 5 years post‐treatment and likely extended seasonal tree growth. Our results show that large, old trees can respond to restoration thinning treatments, but that the level of thinning impacts this response. Stand thinning must be sufficiently intensive to improve old tree growth and health, in part due to increasing available soil moisture. Importantly, focusing stand density reductions around the immediate neighborhood of legacy trees was insufficient to elicit a growth response, calling into question treatments attempting to increase vigor of legacy trees while still maintaining closed canopies in dry, coniferous forest types. Although radial thinning did not affect tree growth rates, this treatment may still achieve other resource objectives not studied here, such as protecting wildlife habitat, reducing the risk of severe fire injury, and decreasing susceptibility to bark beetle attacks.     

竞争强度变化对针阔混交林红松和水曲柳径向生长的影响

以3种间伐强度处理下(15%,30%和50%)针阔混交林内优势树种红松(Pinus koraiensis)和水曲柳(Fraxinus mandshurica)为研究对象,基于3次复测数据和树轮宽度数据分析不同间伐强度处理下红松和水曲柳的竞争变化特征,探讨竞争环境变化对保留木径向生长的影响。结果表明,1)红松保留木竞争环境发生变化的单木比例随着间伐强度增加而有所下降,但竞争减弱的保留木所占比例与间伐强度正相关,重度间伐样地内竞争减弱的红松保留木所占比例最大达到63%。不同间伐强度下水曲柳保留木竞争环境发生变化的单木比例一致,竞争减弱的单木比例占50%。2)不同竞争环境的水曲柳保留木径向生长趋势基本一致,而红松保留木径向生长变化趋势有所不同。轻度和重度间伐样地内竞争减弱的红松保留木径向生长在间伐后均呈上升趋势,而中度间伐样地内竞争减弱的红松保留木和各样地竞争不变的红松保留木以及不同竞争强度下水曲柳保留木均在2013年和2014年(间伐后2年内)出现生长抑制,而在2015年(伐后第3年)得到促进。3)随着间伐强度上升,自2015年(伐后第3年)竞争减弱的红松保留木径向生长年增量明显增加,显著高于竞争不变的红松(P0.05),而竞争减弱的水曲柳保留木径向生长年增量自2014年(伐后第2年)在重度间伐样地内增加幅度最大,其次为轻度间伐样地,而在中度间伐样地内增加幅度最低。     

What explains landscape patterns of tree mortality caused by bark beetle outbreaks in Greater Yellowstone?

Aim Bark beetle outbreaks have recently affected extensive areas of western North American forests, and factors explaining landscape patterns of tree mortality are poorly understood. The objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of stand structure, topography, soil characteristics, landscape context (the characteristics of the landscape surrounding the focal stand) and beetle pressure (the abundance of local beetle population eruptions around the focal stand a few years before the outbreak) to explain landscape patterns of tree mortality during outbreaks of three species: the mountain pine beetle, which attacks lodgepole pine and whitebark pine; the spruce beetle, which feeds on Engelmann spruce; and the Douglas‐fir beetle, which attacks Douglas‐fir. A second objective was to identify common variables that explain tree mortality among beetle–tree host pairings during outbreaks. Location Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, Wyoming, USA. Methods We used field surveys to quantify stand structure, soil characteristics and topography at the plot level in susceptible stands of each forest type showing different severities of infestation (0–98% mortality; n= 129 plots). We then used forest cover and beetle infestation maps derived from remote sensing to develop landscape context and beetle pressure metrics at different spatial scales. Plot‐level and landscape‐level variables were used to explain outbreak severity. Results Engelmann spruce and Douglas‐fir mortality were best predicted using landscape‐level variables alone. Lodgepole pine mortality was best predicted by both landscape‐level and plot‐level variables. Whitebark pine mortality was best – although poorly – predicted by plot‐level variables. Models including landscape context and beetle pressure were much better at predicting outbreak severity than models that only included plot‐level measures, except for whitebark pine. Main conclusions Landscape‐level variables, particularly beetle pressure, were the most consistent predictors of subsequent outbreak severity within susceptible stands of all four host species. These results may help forest managers identify vulnerable locations during ongoing outbreaks.     

The vertical leaf distribution of Ulmus laevis Pall.

Vertical leaf distribution and relative irradiance were ascertained for the dominant species Ulmus laevis Pall. at the level of the individual tree and at the level of the stand in a mixed broad-leaved forest in South Moravia, the Czech Republic. The study consisted of detailed, destructive measurement of five selected sample trees and the establishment of basic biometric parameters for the entire stand. Using allometric relationships, measurements from sample trees were generalized to diameter at breast height (DBH) classes and were then scaled up to the level of the imaginary pure stand of elm; the selected independent variables were tree height and DBH. The vertical leaf distribution was unimodal in trees with smaller dimensions and bimodal in trees with larger dimensions. The leaf area index (LAI) of the stand was 4 (6.4 including the undergrowth), and the sunlit leaf area index (SLAI) was 1.7. Dominant trees had a higher proportion of sunlit leaf area than subdominant and suppressed trees. Determination of appropriate methods and intensity of thinning can lead to optimizing of irradiation control, vitality increase of the elm stands and subsequently to a higher resistance to Dutch elm disease vector and disease itself.