Herbarium records identify sensitivity of flowering phenology of eucalypts to climate: Implications for species response to climate change

Flowering phenology is very sensitive to climate and with increasing global warming the flowering time of plants is shifting to earlier or later dates. Changes in flowering times may affect species reproductive success, associated phenological events, species synchrony, and community composition. Long‐term data on phenological events can provide key insights into the impacts of climate on phenology. For Australia, however, limited data availability restricts our ability to assess the impacts of climate change on plant phenology. To address this limitation other data sources must be explored such as the use of herbarium specimens to conduct studies on flowering phenology. This study uses herbarium specimens for investigating the flowering phenology of five dominant and commercially important Eucalyptus species of south‐eastern Australia and the consequences of climate variability and change on flowering phenology. Relative to precipitation and air humidity, mean temperature of the preceding 3 months was the most influential factor on the flowering time for all species. In response to a temperature increment of 1°C, a shift in the timing of flowering of 14.1–14.9 days was predicted for E. microcarpa and E. tricarpa while delays in flowering of 11.3–15.5 days were found for E. obliqua, E. radiata and E. polyanthemos. Eucalyptus polyanthemos exhibited the greatest sensitivity to climatic variables. The study demonstrates that herbarium data can be used to detect climatic signals on flowering phenology for species with a long flowering duration, such as eucalypts. The robust relationship identified between temperature and flowering phenology indicates that shifts in flowering times will occur under predicted climate change which may affect reproductive success, fitness, plant communities and ecosystems.     

Modelling the potential distribution of endangered Prunus africana (Hook.f.) Kalkm. in East Africa

Continued harvesting and climate change are affecting the distributions of many plant species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Endangered species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modelling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, of tree species. We used MaxEnt algorithm for species distribution modelling to assess the potential distribution and climate change risks for a threatened Prunus africana, in East Africa. Data from different herbaria on its distribution were linked to data on climate to test hypotheses on the factors determining its distribution. Predictive models were developed and projected onto a climate scenario for 2050 to assess climate change risks. Precipitation of driest quarter and annual precipitation appeared to be the main factors influencing its distribution. Climate change was predicted to result in reductions of the species' habitats (e.g. Erasmus et al., Glob. Change Biol. 2002; 8 : 679). Prunus africana distribution is thus highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlights the fact that both in‐situ and ex‐situ conservation will be a solution to global warming.     

Mutualism influences species distribution predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding anuran under climate change

Ecological niche models, or species distribution models, have been widely used to identify potentially suitable areas for species in future climate change scenarios. However, there are inherent errors to these models due to their inability to evaluate species occurrence influenced by non‐climatic factors. With the intuit to improve the modelling predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding treefrog (Phyllodytes melanomystax, Hylidae), we investigate how the climatic suitability of bromeliads influences the distribution model for the treefrog in the context of baseline and 2050 climate change scenarios. We used point occurrence data on the frog and the bromeliad (Vriesea procera, Bromeliaceae) to generate their predicted distributions based on baseline and 2050 climates. Using a consensus of five algorithms, we compared the accuracy of the models and the geographic predictions for the frog generated from two modelling procedures: (i) a climate‐only model for P. melanomystax and V. procera; and (ii) a climate‐biotic model for P. melanomystax, in which the climatic suitability of the bromeliad was jointly considered with the climatic variables. Both modelling approaches generated strong and similar predictive power for P. melanomystax, yet climate‐biotic modelling generated more concise predictions, particularly for the year 2050. Specifically, because the predicted area of the bromeliad overlaps with the predictions for the treefrog in the baseline climate, both modelling approaches produce reasonable similar predicted areas for the anuran. Alternatively, due to the predicted loss of northern climatically suitable areas for the bromeliad by 2050, only the climate‐biotic models provide evidence that northern populations of P. melanomystax will likely be negatively affected by 2050.     

Turning up the heat on the provenance debate: Testing the ‘local is best’ paradigm under heatwave conditions

A key aspect of successful restoration projects is the sourcing of propagation material suited to the environmental and biotic conditions of the proposed planting site. Traditionally, the use of propagules collected locally has been advocated for revegetation on the assumption that this material is better adapted to local conditions. A rapidly changing climate, however, is challenging the assumption that the use of local genetic stock will provide the best restoration outcome in the long term. We tested the ‘local is best’ paradigm using open top chambers to simulate the predicted summer temperatures for 2050 in western Sydney, Australia. We compared the establishment success of Eucalyptus tereticornis and Themeda australis, dominant species in Cumberland Plain Woodland, grown from local versus non‐local seed. All plants survived an exceptional summer heatwave and few differences between temperature treatments were found. No evidence of local superiority was found for survival or growth of non‐reproductive tissues of either species. However, local provenance plants of E. tereticornis suffered significantly greater herbivory in the ambient temperature treatment than one non‐local provenance, and local provenance plants of T. australis demonstrated significant superiority to most non‐local provenances in all categories of reproductive growth. For both species, the provenances from warmer climates demonstrated comparable, and often better, growth performance than the local provenance plants.     

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest‐restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo‐presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real‐presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo‐presence data. Using real‐presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.     

Influence of fire severity on the regeneration,recruitment and distribution of eucalypts in the Cotter River Catchment,Australian Capital Territory

Abstract Plant responses to fire are variable between and within species and are influenced by numerous factors including fire severity. This study investigated the effects of fire severity on the regeneration and recruitment of forest eucalypts in the Cotter River Catchment, Australian Capital Territory (ACT). This study also examined the potential for the obligate seeder Eucalyptus delegatensis R.T. Baker (Myrtaceae) to expand into adjacent stands dominated by the facultative resprouter Eucalyptus fastigata H. Deane & Maiden (Myrtaceae) by seed shed and seedling establishment beyond the pre‐fire boundary. Sites were located in areas of either higher or lower fire severity, and transects were placed across the boundary of stands of E. delegatensis and E. fastigata. Species distributions, tree survival and seedling densities and heights were recorded, and the location of each boundary was determined as the region of maximum change in species composition along the transects. Eucalyptus delegatensis was the only eucalypt killed by higher severity fire. However, E. delegatensis seedling density was greater at higher severity sites than lower severity sites. Eucalyptus fastigata seedling density was low across all sites, with other eucalypts producing few, if any, seedlings. There was no evidence that E. delegatensis had increased its range into downslope stands dominated by E. fastigata. Patterns of vegetative recovery and seedling recruitment may be related to a number of factors, including differences in allocation patterns between seeders and sprouters, and the effects of overstory and understory competition. It is unclear what processes impede E. delegatensis seedling establishment beyond the stand boundary, but may involve an inability of E. delegatensis to shed seed sufficiently far downslope; unsuitable conditions for germination beyond the boundary; or, competition from a retained or resprouting overstory, despite the potential for increased dispersal distance soon after fire.     

Root growth of subalpine and montane Eucalyptus seedlings at low soil temperatures

 This study examines the effect of different soil temperatures on root growth in seedlings of Eucalyptus pauciflora Sieber ex Sprengel subsp. pauciflora and Eucalyptus nitens (Deane & Maiden) Maiden. Seedlings were grown in a glasshouse in pots containing soil. Pots were held in water baths maintained at 3, 7 or 13°C, whilst shoots were exposed to ambient glasshouse temperatures. The experiments were designed to separate direct effects of soil temperature from effects due to differences in seedling size. In the first experiment, seedlings were grown to constant height (25 cm for both species), in the second to constant time (100 days for E. pauciflora and 64 days for E. nitens) and in the third experiment seedlings were transferred between soil temperatures. The rate of growth of both species increased with increasing soil temperature. E. nitens grew faster than E. pauciflora at 7 and 13°C, but E. pauciflora grew faster than E. nitens at 3°C. The rate of browning of roots increased with decreasing soil temperature and at a faster rate in E. nitens than E. pauciflora. Root length was highly correlated to root mass within diameter and colour classes (r² > 0.7). However, brown roots were heavier than white roots. Consequently, changes in root mass did not reflect changes in root length when the proportion of brown to white root also changed. For example, at a constant height of 25 cm at 3°C, E. nitens had greater root mass but lesser root length than E. pauciflora. E. pauciflora at 3°C grew faster, and had more root length and less brown roots than E. nitens. This supports the argument that E. pauciflora is better adapted than E. nitens to survive and grow at lower soil temperatures. Received: 16 December 1996 / Accepted: 2 April 1997     

Nutrient cycling and nitrogen mineralization in eucalypt forests of south-eastern Australia

Summary Nutrient pools in litter and soil and the major nutrient transfers and additions in rainfall, throughfall and litterfall were measured in eight mature, undisturbed eucalypt forests covering a range of species, climate, productivity and soil type. Litterfall is the major pathway for the return of N, P, Ca and usually Mg, to the soil. The forests covered almost the range of litterfall reported for eucalypt forests and, in conjunction with published data, litterfall was strongly related to climatic variables. Extractable P in the soil and P concentrations in litter and litterfall were significantly higher in two sub-alpine forests (Eucalyptus pauciflora andE. delegatensis) than in all other forests. In general, nutrient turnover, particularly N turnover, was related to the rate of organic matter turnover. Rates of organic matter turnover in these forests and in other studies of eucalypts were correlated with climatic conditions using the simple climatic scalar developed by Vitousek. Nitrogen turnover, especially that proportion cycling via leaf litterfall is primarily a function of organic matter turnover, but litter quality appears also to have an influence.     

Cold hardening reduces photoinhibition of Eucalypts nitens and E. pauciflora at frost temperatures

Photoinhibition of photosynthesis at low temperatures was investigated in two species of subalpine eucalypt, Eucalypts nitens (Deane and Maiden) Maiden and E. pauciflora Sieb. ex Spreng. Imposition of an artificial cold-hardening treatment increased the frost tolerance of leaf tissue and increased tolerance to excess light. Cold-hardened seedlings of both species had a higher photosynthetic capacity than non-hardened seedlings at 6 and 16°C and lower levels of non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) at 20 and 5°C. Furthermore, hardened seedlings had faster rates of NPQ development at 5 and −3.5°C. An increase in minimal fluorescence, which indicates slowly reversible photoinhibition, was evident in all seedlings at −1.5 and −3.5°C but was less pronounced in hardened seedlings, with a threefold faster rate of development of NPQ, at −3.5°C than non-hardened seedlings. Hardened seedlings also recovered faster from photoinhibition at −3.5°C. Thus cold hardening increased tolerance to high light in these species. Differences between E. nitens and E. pauciflora in their response to excess light were small and significant only at −3.5°C. Faster recovery from photoinhibition of E. pauciflora was consistent with its occurrence in colder habitats than E. nitens. Received: 27 April 1997 / Accepted: 9 September 1997     

The present distribution and predicted geographic expansion of the floodwater mosquito Aedes sticticus in Sweden

The mass emergence of floodwater mosquitoes, in particular Aedes sticticus and Aedes vexans, causes substantial nuisance and reduces life quality for inhabitants of infested areas and can have a negative impact on the socio‐economic conditions of a region. We compared the previous, present, and predicted geographic distribution of Ae. sticticus in Sweden. Previous records from the literature until 1990 list the species in three out of 21 Swedish counties. Beginning in 1998, studies show that the present distribution of the species covers 11 counties, with highest abundances in an east‐west belt in Central Sweden. Using climate data from the present and predicted climate scenarios, the expected distribution of Ae. sticticus in 2020, 2050, and 2080 could be modelled using GIS. As variables, mean temperatures and cumulative precipitation between May and August and degree slope were chosen. The predicted geographic distribution of Ae. sticticus will continue to increase and include 20 out of 21 Swedish counties. The expected temperature rise will increase the suitable area towards the northern part of Sweden by 2050. Some non‐suitable areas can be found along the south‐east coast due to insufficient amount of precipitation in 2050 and 2080. Modelling the expected distribution of a species using predicted climate change scenarios provides a valuable tool for risk assessments and early‐warning systems that is easily applied to different species and scenarios.     

Pre-logging carbon accounts in old-growth forests,via allometry: An example of mixed-forest in Tasmania,Australia

Abstract

Uncertainty in past and future anthropogenic carbon emissions obscures climate change modelling. Available allometrics are insufficient for regional-level accounting of old-growth, pre-logging carbon stocks. The project goal was to determine the aboveground carbon (biomass and necromass) for a typical old-growth Eucalyptus delegatensis-dominated mixed-forest in Tasmania. Allometrics were developed for aboveground biomass of Eucalyptus delegatensis and generic rainforest understorey species. A total of 207 eucalypts with DBH 0.21–4.5 m, and 897 rainforest understorey trees with DBH 0.01–2.52 m were measured across 7.7 ha. DBH frequency distribution of E. delegatensis showed at least two age cohorts and distinct positive skew, whereas its DBH carbon distribution showed distinct negative skew. Half of the eucalypt biomass was from trees with DBH > 2.4(0.1) m, and 16% with DBH ≥ 3.5 m (from ～1.1 trees ha^?1) – indicating the importance of allometrics for high DBH. Aboveground carbon was 622(180) Mg ha^?1, with ～20% from understorey and ～25% from necromass. The carbon in aboveground biomass was above the median value for temperate forests. The long-term aboveground-carbon emissions from clearfelling the same forest type from 1999 to 2009 is likely to be 2.9(±1.3) Tg, depending on the growth and seral stages of the forest logged.     

From canopy to seed: Loss of snow drives directional changes in forest composition

Climate change is altering the conditions for tree recruitment, growth, and survival, and impacting forest community composition. Across southeast Alaska, USA, and British Columbia, Canada, Callitropsis nootkatensis (Alaska yellow‐cedar) is experiencing extensive climate change‐induced canopy mortality due to fine‐root death during soil freezing events following warmer winters and the loss of insulating snowpack. Here, we examine the effects of ongoing, climate‐driven canopy mortality on forest community composition and identify potential shifts in stand trajectories due to the loss of a single canopy species. We sampled canopy and regenerating forest communities across the extent of C. nootkatensis decline in southeast Alaska to quantify the effects of climate, community, and stand‐level drivers on C. nootkatensis canopy mortality and regeneration as well as postdecline regenerating community composition. Across the plot network, C. nootkatensis exhibited significantly higher mortality than co‐occurring conifers across all size classes and locations. Regenerating community composition was highly variable but closely related to the severity of C. nootkatensis mortality. Callitropsis nootkatensis canopy mortality was correlated with winter temperatures and precipitation as well as local soil drainage, with regenerating community composition and C. nootkatensis regeneration abundances best explained by available seed source. In areas of high C. nootkatensis mortality, C. nootkatensis regeneration was low and replaced by Tsuga. Our study suggests that climate‐induced forest mortality is driving alternate successional pathways in forests where C. nootkatensis was once a major component. These pathways are likely to lead to long‐term shifts in forest community composition and stand dynamics. Our analysis fills a critical knowledge gap on forest ecosystem response and rearrangement following the climate‐driven decline of a single species, providing new insight into stand dynamics in a changing climate. As tree species across the globe are increasingly stressed by climate change‐induced alteration of suitable habitat, identifying the autecological factors contributing to successful regeneration, or lack thereof, will provide key insight into forest resilience and persistence on the landscape.     

Are the patterns of regeneration in the endangered Eucalyptus gunnii ssp. divaricata shifting in response to climate?

Increasing drought frequency is a major driver of changes in forest structure and has been implicated in the decline of the endangered tree species, Eucalyptus gunnii ssp. divaricata (McAulay & Brett) in the Central Plateau region of Tasmania, Australia. In this study, we examined patterns of regeneration, aspects of the water relations of E. gunnii ssp. divaricata and its replacement Eucalyptus pauciflora and, whether shifts in stand dominance have occurred where the subspecies co‐occurs with E. pauciflora could be related to recent changes in climate. Successful E. gunnii ssp. divaricata seedling regeneration was restricted to micro‐sites with relatively deep soils within slight depressions. In contrast, poor E. gunnii ssp. divaricata regeneration and declining adult cohorts of this species all occurred on steeper, concave micro‐sites with shallow soils. This apparent shift in suitable regeneration micro‐site, from sites with shallow to deeper soils, may be linked to an observed 25% reduction in summer rainfall over the last 50 years. On slopes surrounding waterlogged depressions where E. gunnii ssp. divaricata co‐occurs with E. pauciflora, E. pauciflora was in higher abundance than E. gunnii ssp. divaricata in small adult and sapling size‐classes, compared with the adult cohorts (>30 cm d.b.h.), a trend consistent with a shift in stand dominance. Despite existing paradigms related to differential drought tolerance between these two species as a driver of this shift in stand dominance, there were no differences in predawn (Ψ_pd) water potentials between species. Furthermore, pressure–volume analysis showed that E. gunnii ssp. divaricata had lower values for osmotic potential at turgor loss point (?2.33 ± 0.06 MPa) than E. pauciflora (?2.13 ± 0.03 MPa), suggesting that E. gunnii ssp. divaricata may be more drought tolerant than E. pauciflora, in contrast to the prevailing paradigm that it is more susceptible to drought than E. pauciflora.     

Is decline in high altitude eucalypt forests related to rainforest understorey development and altered soil bacteria following the long absence of fire?

Abstract The objective of this study was to identify attributes of the understorey vegetation, soil root biomass, soil chemistry and microbial community that may be associated with tree decline in high altitude eucalypt forests in Tasmania. The sites studied were in healthy eucalypt forest, forest in decline and forest containing dead eucalypts dominated by rainforest, in north‐east (Eucalyptus delegatensis forest) and in north‐west (Eucalyptus coccifera forest) Tasmania. In both regions bare ground, rock and shrubby species were associated with healthy sites whereas decline sites were associated with moss and a tall understorey with a high percentage cover of rainforest species. Healthy sites had low root biomass in the top 10 cm of the soil profile relative to decline and rainforest sites. Seedlings of high altitude species were grown in rainforest soil (0.314% N and 0.060% P) and healthy eucalypt soil (0.253% N and 0.018% P). The four eucalypt species studied had similar root to shoot ratio in the two soils, but the rainforest species, Nothofagus cunninghamii and Leptospermum lanigerum, had higher root to shoot ratio in the healthy eucalypt than in the rainforest soil. We produced three soil filtrates: (i) fungi and bacteria present; (ii) bacteria only present and; and (iii) sterile, from healthy, decline and rainforest sites in north‐east and in north‐west Tasmania and used linseed as a germination bioassay. Filtrates from the north‐east decline and rainforest sites induced a significantly greater dysplastic germination response than healthy sites in (i) and (ii) filtrates, but this was not found in filtrates from sites in the north‐west. We conclude that while the development of a rainforest understorey and elevated soil root biomass in the long absence of fire is generally associated with high altitude eucalypt decline, altered bacterial and/or chemical attributes of soil are not always associated with high altitude eucalypt decline.     

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya

Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator–prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy‐deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate‐only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km²) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km² (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate‐only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator–prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards – a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.     

Stability of species and provenance performance when translocated into different community assemblages

The stability of species and provenance performance across diverse environments is a major issue in restoration, particularly for assisted migration and climate‐adjusted provenancing strategies. This study examines how differences in species and provenance performance are affected by plant community composition in a dry sclerophyll forest restoration experiment. Five indices were measured over 6 years post‐establishment to evaluate the relative performance of community composition using 10 provenances of two focal eucalypts (Eucalyptus pauciflora and Eucalyptus tenuiramis) under six community treatments for E. pauciflora and five for E. tenuiramis. Community treatments varied according to the species planted as the immediate neighbor to the focal species, and included same species, same genus, or one of three different genera. Significant species and provenance differences were observed for all measured performance indices, with no evidence of interaction effects with community treatments. E. tenuiramis was more susceptible to insects and frost, and had poorer establishment but greater growth of the survivors than E. pauciflora. Generally, nonlocal provenances were more susceptible to insect herbivory and frost damage and had higher mortality than local provenances. At this early life‐stage there was no evidence that co‐planted species affected the relative performance of focal species or provenances, arguing transfer functions are likely stable across different planted communities. While species and provenance performance was not affected by community context, focal species differed in their response to upslope migration and any climate‐adjusted provenancing may require staged transfers to avoid maladaptation under contemporary growing conditions.     

Current and future potential distributions of three Dracaena Vand. ex L. species under two contrasting climate change scenarios in Africa

Forest undergrowth plants are tightly connected with the shady and humid conditions that occur under the canopy of tropical forests. However, projected climatic changes, such as decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, negatively affect understory environments by promoting light‐demanding and drought‐tolerant species. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the influence of climate change on the spatial distribution of three selected forest undergrowth plants, Dracaena Vand. ex L. species, D. afromontana Mildbr., D. camerooniana Baker, and D. surculosa Lindl., simultaneously creating the most comprehensive location database for these species to date. A total of 1,223 herbarium records originating from tropical Africa and derived from 93 herbarium collections worldwide have been gathered, validated, and entered into a database. Species‐specific Maxent species distribution models (SDMs) based on 11 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were developed for the species. HadGEM2‐ES projections of bioclimatic variables in two contrasting representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, were used to quantify the changes in future potential species distribution. D. afromontana is mostly sensitive to temperature in the wettest month, and its potential geographical range is predicted to decrease (up to ?63.7% at RCP8.5). Optimum conditions for D. camerooniana are low diurnal temperature range (6–8°C) and precipitation in the wettest season exceeding 750 mm. The extent of this species will also decrease, but not as drastically as that of D. afromontana. D. surculosa prefers high precipitation in the coldest months. Its potential habitat area is predicted to increase in the future and to expand toward the east. This study developed SDMs and estimated current and future (year 2050) potential distributions of the forest undergrowth Dracaena species. D. afromontana, naturally associated with mountainous plant communities, was the most sensitive to predicted climate warming. In contrast, D. surculosa was predicted to extend its geographical range, regardless of the climate change scenario.     

Edge effects across boundaries between natural and restored jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forests in south‐western Australia

Edge effects are a widespread and ubiquitous ecological phenomenon, yet they remain poorly studied across edges between restored and natural forests. To address this lack of knowledge, we studied vertebrate communities across edges between 3‐year old restored mine‐pits and adjacent unmined forest in the jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest of south‐western Australia. We found that mammal communities showed no edge response but reptile communities did. Overall reptile abundance and Morethia obscura abundance were higher in unmined forest along edges, Egernia napoleonis abundance was lower in unmined forest along edges, while Pogona minor abundance was lower in restored mine‐pits along edges. Predictive models were unable to predict species edge responses, due to the lack of knowledge of the ecology of jarrah forest reptiles, but proved useful in identifying potential ecological mechanisms behind observed edge responses and suggested that potential mechanisms were likely different for each species. Our study is the first to show edge responses in both habitats forming the edge between restored and natural forests, emphasizing the importance of studying both habitats forming the edge. Our results also suggest that, despite being poorly studied, edge responses are common across edges between restored and natural forest and result from a variety of ecological mechanisms. An increased understanding of the ecological mechanisms driving edge responses across edges between restored and natural forests will improve our ability to integrate restored areas into cross‐landscape management and, ultimately, improve our ability to manage landscapes for biodiversity conservation.     

Shallow environmental gradients put inland species at risk: Insights and implications from predicting future distributions of Eucalyptus species in South Western Australia

As climate changes, tree decline in Mediterranean‐type ecosystems is increasing worldwide, often due to decreased effective precipitation and increased drought and heat stress, and has recently been observed in coastal species of the iconic Eucalyptus (Myrtaceae) genus in the biodiversity hotspot of south‐west Western Australia. To investigate how this drought‐related decline is likely to continue in the future, we used species distribution modelling techniques to generate broad‐scale predictions of future distribution patterns under three distinct projected climate change scenarios. In a moderate climate change scenario, suitable habitat for all species was predicted to decrease by, on average, 73% by the year 2100, with most receding into southern areas of their current distribution. Although the most severe Eucalyptus declines in south‐west Western Australia have been observed in near‐coastal regions, our predictions suggest that inland species are at greater risk from climate change, with six inland species predicted to lose 95% of their suitable habitat in a moderate change scenario. This is due to the shallow environmental gradients of inland regions causing larger spatial shifts of environmental envelopes, which is likely to be relevant in many regions of the world. The knowledge gained suggests that future research and conservation efforts in south‐west Western Australia and elsewhere should avoid focussing disproportionately on coastal regions for reasons of convenience and proximity to population centres, and properly address the inland region where the biggest future impacts may occur.     

Future hydrological constraints of the Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) under changing climate and vegetation cover

The Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) is a critically endangered amphibian species which inhabits a small 20 km² holm oak and beech forest area in NE Spain. Calotriton arnoldi strictly lives in running waters and might be highly vulnerable to hydrological perturbations expected to occur under climate and vegetation cover changes. Knowledge about the potential response of the species habitat to environmental changes can help assessing the actions needed for its conservation. Based on knowledge of the species and supported by observations, we proposed daily low and high streamflow event thresholds for the viability of C. arnoldi. We used the rainfall–runoff model PERSiST to simulate changes in the frequency and duration of these events, which were predicted under two climate and four vegetation cover scenarios for near‐future (2031–2050) and far‐future (2081–2100) periods in a reference catchment. All future scenarios projected a significant decrease in annual streamflow (from 21% to as much as 67%) with respect to the reference period. The frequency and length of low streamflow events will dramatically increase. In contrast, the risk of catastrophic drift linked to high streamflow events was predicted to decrease. The potential change in vegetation toward an expansion of holm oak forests will be more important than climate changes in determining threshold low flow conditions. We thus demonstrated that consideration of potential changes in vegetation and not only changes in climate variables is essential in simulating future streamflows. This study shows that future low streamflow conditions will pose a severe threat for the survival of C. arnoldi and may help taking management actions, including limiting the expansion of holm oak forest, for ameliorating the species habitat and help its conservation.