基于气候适宜度的东北地区春玉米发育期模拟模型

以春玉米的生理生态发育过程为基础,基于作物生理发育时间恒定原理,建立了可推广应用的作物发育期模拟模型.本文充分考虑光、温、水对作物生育进程的综合影响,设计了基于气候适宜度来动态确定作物生理发育日数的算法,为模型的大范围推广应用奠定了基础.利用东北地区农业气象站2009、2010年观测资料对模型进行了分析和验证,模型运行结果与实际观测情况比较吻合,全生育期的均方根误差(root mean square error,简称RMSE)为3.8d,营养生长阶段发育期模拟结果的相关系数在0.84以上,生殖生长阶段发育期模拟结果的相关系数在0.77以上.模型生物学意义明确、精度较高、数据易获、可操作性强,能够在农业气象业务服务中应用于玉米生育进程的模拟与预测.     

基于生理生态过程的大麦顶端发育和物候期模拟模型检验

为测试研究I 模型BarleyGrow,采用4个生态区(南京、扬州、武汉、昆明)、10个大麦品种在不同播期下的顶端发育和物候期资料,对BarleyGrow、YDmodel和SUCROS模型进行对比检验和评价.利用遗传-模拟退火算法确定各品种的遗传参数,提高了应用程序求算参数的精度.从模型的整体预测效果来看,BarleyGrow对不同地区、不同播期、不同品种的各顶端发育和物候期预测准确而稳定,均方差RMSE在1.06～7.94d之间,而YDmodel为6.26～13.35d,SUCROS为11.22～20.28d.各参试品种对BarleyGrow中灌浆期基点温度、生理春化时间、临界日长、最短苗穗期4参数反应敏感.经改进的生理发育时间(PDT)模拟模型(BarleyGrow)对中国广大地区不同温光条件下的大麦顶端发育和物候发育均具有较好的预测效果,尤其对药隔期、二裂期、毛状期、抽穗期、灌浆期、成熟期的模拟精度高而稳定,表现出较强的机理性以及较好的预测性.     

油菜地上部干物质分配与产量形成模拟模型

利用油菜器官生长与发育进程及环境因子之间的定量关系,构建了基于分配指数的油菜地上部器官干物质分配动态模拟模型.各器官干物质分配指数随着生理发育时间而变化,基因型、播期、氮素及水分水平影响各器官干物质在地上部分配的大小.其中,氮素营养水平对绿色叶片干物质分配影响最大,氮素营养水平越高,绿色叶片分配指数越大;播期影响角果分配指数,晚播的角果分配指数高于早播.模型引入氮素营养指数、水分及播期影响因子来定量油菜各器官在实际生产条件下的分配强度,同时考虑了品种遗传特性的影响.通过不同品种氮肥处理试验建立模型,利用不同品种播期试验资料对模型进行了初步检验,表明模型具有较好的预测性和适用性.     

基于生理生态过程的大麦顶端发育和物候期模拟模型

为改进已有的大麦生理发育时间模拟模型(YDmodel),以扬州地区5个品种春播条件下的顶端发育和物候发育观测资料和历史资料为依据,构建了基于生理发育时间的顶端发育和物候期机理模型.模型量化了热效应、光周期、春化效应对发育的影响,引入了7个遗传参数,分别为播种到出苗所需的有效积温、灌浆期发育基点温度、生理春化时间、临界日长、光周期反应起始点、最短苗穗期、最短灌浆期.本模型在YDmodel基础上的改进主要有3点:(1)将每日生理发育时间的增量乘以水肥丰缺因子,改为除以水肥丰缺因子表现水肥对大麦发育的影响,客观体现了大麦在水肥丰缺条件下的发育延迟或提早现象;(2)将三段线性函数改为非线性函数表达春化效应和相对热效应,确立了不同品种相对春化效应和相对热效应的曲线族;(3)将线性函数改为正弦函数表达不同品种光周期效应.经测算,各大麦品种到达单棱期、二棱期、雌雄蕊分化期、药隔形成期、雌蕊柱头二裂分叉期、雌蕊柱头毛状突起期等顶端发育阶段的生理发育时间分别为2.6、5.6、11.3、13.1、15.3、18.2、28.7d,到达出苗期、拔节期、抽穗期、灌浆期和成熟期等主要物候期的生理发育时间为0、13.1、28.7、32.8、51.5d,形成了不同大麦品种在不同气候和栽培条件下统一的衡量发育的定量尺度.     

基于生理发育时间的日光温室茄子发育模拟模型

本研究将温度对茄子发育速率影响效应的大小用相对热效应(RTE)来衡量,通过研究Beta函数的性质提出基于幂函数的模型来描述RTE与温度之间的关系.采用生理发育时间(Physiological Development'Time,PDT)作为定量发育进程的尺度,建立了温室茄子发育模拟模型.利用模型对日光温室2年3茬茄子生长发育期资料进行检验的结果表明:模型能较好地预测各个发育期(发芽、苗期、开花座果、结果和采收期)的出现时间和持续时间,各生育期模拟值与观测值的回归估计标准误差(RMSE)分别为1.0d,1.73d,0.82d,1.41d,2.38d,显著优于以有效积温模拟模型的预测精度(其生育期模拟的RMSE分别为2.38d,7.14d,1.73d,5.07d,8.25d).     

小麦发育过程及生育期机理模型的研究I.建模的基本设想与模型的描述

将小麦发育的温度效应曲线化,以发育生理生态过程为基础,利用作物生理发育时间(Physiological Development Time,简称PDT)为尺度,提出系统地预测小麦顶端发育阶段和物候生育期的模拟模型.预测的顶端发育阶段包括单棱期、二棱期、小花原基分化期、雌雄蕊原基分化期、药隔期、四分体期、抽穗期.物候发育阶段包括种子萌发、出苗期、分蘖期、越冬期、返青期、拔节期、孕穗期、抽穗期、开花期、灌浆期、成熟期.模型中用来描述特定品种发育遗传差异的参数有温度敏感性、生理春化时间、光周期敏感性和基本早熟性,分别体现了不同品种小麦在热效应、春化作用、光周期反应以及最早开花时间这四方面的遗传特性,共同决定了不同品种到达各发育阶段的生理发育时间     

油菜绿色面积指数动态模拟模型

准确模拟绿色面积指数是作物生长模拟模型可靠预测作物生长和产量的关键。该研究的目的是以生理生态过程为基础,构建油菜(Brassica napus)叶面积指数和角果面积指数变化动态的模拟模型。油菜叶面积指数模型综合考虑了库或源限制下的叶面积增长模式,其中库限制下叶面积指数的增长呈指数方程,且受到温度、水分和氮素因子的影响;源限制下叶面积指数增长用比叶面积法来模拟。油菜角果面积指数由比角果面积和角果干物重来决定。比叶面积和比角果面积均为生理发育时间的函数。利用不同类型品种的播期试验及氮肥试验资料分别对模型进行了校正和检验,结果表明模型能较好地模拟不同条件下油菜叶面积指数和角果面积指数。     

陕西不同地区栓皮栎种群增长模拟与预测预报的研究

时间序列分析可以通过差分、周期的方法,对植物种群的增长进行模拟与预测。在陕西的秦岭、汉中、黄龙地区选择林相整齐、有代表性的地段作为标准地,设置样方40个,对各样方内的林木进行每木检尺,通过优势木解析的方法,测得栓皮栎种群胸径的实际生长量,运用起伏型时间序列分析,建立了栓皮栎种群个体年龄与胸径生长的时间序列模型,四个模型所得的各个样地栓皮栎胸径生长的模拟值与实际值进行比较,其模拟平均误差都在1．5％以内,平均精度达到97．8％,模拟效果较好。经检验,该模型预测胸径的生长量具有较好的可靠性和精度高等优点,从而丰富和发展了种群增长模拟与预测预报的方法。     

棉花铃期与棉籽干物质积累模拟模型

基于不同熟性棉花品种的异地分期播种试验,综合量化品种特性、主要气象条件（温度、太阳辐射）和栽培措施（施氮量）对棉花铃期与棉籽干物质积累的影响,基于生理发育时间,建立棉花铃期模拟模型,并基于棉籽生长的“库限制”假设,建立棉籽干物质积累模拟模型.通过量化棉铃对位叶氮浓度的变化,为模型构建氮素效应函数.利用不同生态点的品种、播期和施氮量田间试验资料对模型进行检验,结果表明：德夏棉1号、科棉1号和美棉33B的铃期预测值与实测值的根均方差（RMSE）分别为2.25 d、2.61 d和2.75 d,科棉1号和美棉33B的棉籽干物质模拟值与实测值的RMSE分别为9.5 mg·seed^-1和8.2 mg·seed^-1.表明该模型预测精度较高.     

日光温室黄瓜生长发育模拟模型

实现日光温室黄瓜生长发育动态模拟预测,可为日光温室黄瓜智慧生产管理提供技术支撑.本研究依据黄瓜生长发育的光温反应特性,以‘津优35’为试验品种,利用2年4茬分期播种试验观测数据建立基于钟模型的温室黄瓜发育模拟模型.依据温室黄瓜叶片生长与关键气象因子(温度和辐射)的关系,以辐热积(TEP)为自变量构建了黄瓜叶面积指数(LAI)模拟模型;依据单位叶面积光合作用对叶面积指数和日长的二重积分,结合黄瓜不同器官的呼吸消耗,构建了黄瓜干重生产分配模拟模型,结合器官含水量,构建了黄瓜器官鲜重模拟模块.基于各子模块构建了温室黄瓜生长发育模拟模型,确定了模型品种参数并进行检验.结果表明: 日光温室黄瓜移栽期-伸蔓期、移栽期-初花期、移栽期-采收初期和移栽期-拉秧期的模拟值与观测值的均方根误差(RMSE)在3.9～10.5 d,归一化均方根标准误差(nRMSE)在6.5%～28.6%,符合度指数(D)在0.79～0.97.LAI与TEP呈S型曲线变化关系,LAI模拟值与实际观测值的RMSE为0.19,nRMSE为17.2%,D值为0.90.根、茎、叶、花和果干重模拟值与实际观测值的RMSE在0.39～8.94 g·m^-2,nRMSE在10.9%～17.7%,D值均为0.98以上.表明模型能够较准确地模拟黄瓜关键发育期、叶面积和各器官干鲜重,定量化日光温室黄瓜生长发育过程.     

Pupal overwintering,diapause and development in two species of Spilosoma

• 1 Pupae of Spilosoma lubricipeda (L.) and S. lutea (Hufn.) were studied in order to develop a method for estimating the date of emergence of the moths from temperature data. Diapausing pupae stored at 4–5°C for 157 and 171 days showed the fastest development on subsequent incubation at 20°C indicating that diapause had been completed in cold storage.
• 2 Pupae formed in August and October completed diapause in a ventilated insec-tary in March and early April respectively. A 4-month spread in pupation dates was compressed by diapause and low winter temperatures into a 7-day spread in mean emergence dates for S. lubricipeda and a 17-day spread for S. lutea.
• 3 In the insectary, estimated mean emergence dates differed from observed dates by an average of 3.7 days for S. lubricipeda and 2.4 days for S. lutea. Pupae were over-wintered outdoors in S. England and in Scotland. Observed mean dates of moth emergence varied with altitude and latitude, and differed from estimated dates for S.lubricipeda by an average of 5.5 days.
• 4 Mortality did not exceed 30% except in two years in batches kept in wet boxes outdoors at Achnagoichan which is probably beyond the breeding range of both species in Britain. In the laboratory some pupae survived exposure to — 16°C for 192 h suggesting that winter mortality alone does not control the survival of these species at Achnagoichan.

     

钾肥用量及基追肥比例对烤烟干物质累积和钾素吸收动态的影响

采用田间小区试验研究了钾肥用量及基追肥比例对种植于红壤性水稻土上的烤烟干物质积累和钾素吸收动态的影响.结果表明,烤烟干物质累积高峰出现在烟株移栽后50～60 d,栽后30 d内以及80 d后累积较少.烤烟干物质累积总量随钾肥用量增加和追肥比例提高而增加.烟株含钾量在移栽后30～50 d最高,随后迅速降低,至成熟期仅为最高含钾量的一半.315 kg·hm^-2施钾处理在各生育期烟株平均含钾量均显著高于225 kg·hm^-2施钾处理.烟叶成熟时,225 kg·hm^-2施钾处理出现干物质累积负增长和钾素损失现象,而315 kg·hm^-2处理干物质累积和吸钾总量均呈持续增加趋势.成熟时基追肥比例为3∶7处理的烟株含钾量明显高于基追肥比例为5∶5和7∶3的处理.     

Growth and development of Avena fatua (Wild-oat) in the field

The growth and development of field-grown Avena fatua plants were studied for autumn and spring sowings in two consecutive years. The duration of various growth stages from sowing until anthesis was quantified in terms of thermal time (accumulated degree days) or photothermal time (degree days modified by photoperiod). Base temperatures and photoperiods for developmental phases were estimated as those which minimised the coefficient of variation among sowing dates. Relationships were derived between leaf emergence, canopy height, plant leaf area, and photothermal time. Stem extension and flowering occurred earlier in autumn-sown plants than spring-sown plants. Autumn-sown plants produced more leaves on the main stem, and had greater leaf area and above-ground biomass at anthesis than spring-sown plants.     

The effect of nitrogen fertilization on nitrogen use efficiency of irrigated and non-irrigated tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.).

Burley tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) plants were grown in the field with or without irrigation and fertilized with 0, 120, 240 or 360 kg N ha^–1 over two growing seasons to assess nitrogen use under Mediterranean climate conditions. Kjeldahl-N and NO₃-N in leaves and stems and NO₃-N and NH₄-N in the soil at two depths (0–0.3 and 0.3–0.6 m) were determined. The effect of N fertilization on total N accumulated in the canopy biomass was markedly different between irrigated and non-irrigated plants. Under non-irrigated conditions N accumulated in the plant did not depend on the amount of N applied. In both years, the amount of N in irrigated plants increased in response to the amount of N applied, starting from 49 to 56 days after transplanting (DAT). The average amount of total N in the canopy of irrigated plants, measured across all sampling dates of both years, ranged from 30 kg ha^–1 of the unfertilized control to 88 kg ha^–1 of the 360 kg ha^–1 of N applied. The average amount of plant NO₃-N was 2.6 and 4.4 kg ha^–1 for non-irrigated and irrigated plots across all N treatments (means of 1996 and 1997). Nitrogen uptake rate (NUR) of non-irrigated plants was high between seedling establishment and the period of rapid stem elongation in 1996 (from 36 to 50 DAT) and until flowering in 1997 (from 42 to 71 DAT), but much less or negligible at later stages of plant development. Irrigation increased NUR dramatically in the second part of the growing season. Maximum NUR was estimated for plants receiving 240 or 360 kg N ha^–1 in both years. The year of study did not affect the recovery fraction (RF), physiological efficiency (PE) or agronomic efficiency (AE). Irrigation and N fertilization had significant effects on both RF and AE, but not on PE. Maximum values of RF were 45 and 22% for irrigated and non-irrigated treatments, respectively. In irrigated plots there was a negative relationship between RF and increasing N levels at all sampling dates.     

A comparison of methods to estimate seasonal phenological development from BBCH scale recording

The BBCH scale is a two-digit key of growth stages in plants that is based on standardised definitions of plant development stages. The extended BBCH scale, used in this paper, enables the coding of the entire development cycle of all mono- and dicotyledonous plants. Using this key, the frequency distribution of phenological stages was recorded which required a less intense sampling frequency. The onset dates of single events were later estimated from the frequency distribution of BBCH codes. The purpose of this study was to present four different methods from which those onset dates can be estimated. Furthermore, the effects of (1) a less detailed observation key and (2) changes in the sampling frequency on estimates of onset dates were assessed. For all analyses, phenological data from the entire development cycle of four grass species were used. Estimates of onset dates determined by Weighted Plant Development (WPD), Pooled pre-/post-Stage Development (PSD), Cumulative Stage Development (CSD) and Ordinal Logistic Regression (OLR) methods can all be used to determine the phenological progression of plants. Moreover, results show that a less detailed observation key still resulted in similar onset dates, unless more than two consecutive stages were omitted. Further results reveal that the simulation of a less intense sampling frequency had only small impacts on estimates of onset dates. Thus, especially in remote areas where an observation interval of a week is not feasible, estimates derived from the frequency distribution of BBCH codes appear to be appropriate.     

湖北恩施烟夜蛾幼虫田间分布格局的地统计学分析

烟夜蛾以幼虫取食烟叶,给烟叶生产带来巨大损失.运用地统计学的方法,研究了湖北恩施烟区烟夜蛾幼虫的空间结构和发生动态.结果表明： 恩施烟区烟夜蛾幼虫在烟叶移栽后40 d开始为害,至烟叶成熟前期达到高峰;球形 指数套合模型为烟夜蛾幼虫田间分布的主要模型,属聚集〖JP2〗分布;空间变异度C/(C₀+C)均大于0.75,说明其结构性变异较大,随机性变异较小;烟夜蛾幼虫在烟叶旺长期进行了较大迁移,之后其数量趋于稳定,烟叶成熟期尤其稳定.     

Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland

The main goal of this paper is to estimate how the observed and predicted climate changes may affect the development rates and emergence of the codling moth in the southern part of the Wielkopolska region in Poland. In order to simulate the future climate conditions one of the most frequently used A1B SRES scenarios and two different IPCC climate models (HadCM3 and GISS modelE) are considered. A daily weather generator (WGENK) was used to generate temperature values for present and future climate conditions (time horizons 2020–2040 and 2040–2060). Based on the generated data set, the degree-days values were then calculated and the emergence dates of the codling moth at key stages were estimated basing on the defined thresholds. Our analyses showed that the average air surface temperature in the Wielkopolska region may increase from 2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period of 2040–2060. With the warming climate conditions the cumulated degree-days values may increase at a rate of about 142 DD per decade when the low temperature threshold (T _low ) of 0°C is considered and 91 DD per decade when T _low ?=?10°C. The key developmental stages of the codling moth may occur much earlier in the future climate conditions than currently, at a rate of about 3.8–6.8 days per decade, depending on the considered GCM model and the pest developmental stage. The fastest changes may be observed in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of the second codling moth generation. This could increase the emergence probability of the pest third generation that has not currently occurred in Poland.     

Late Transplanting and the Yield of Phaseolus vulgaris L.

The prediction that very high seed yields of dry beans (Phaseolusvulgaris L.) would be produced by the delayed transplantingof large plants has been tested in a factorial experiment withfour dates of transplanting and eight plant populations. Therewere significant differences in yield between transplantingdates and between population densities, and there was a significantdate-density interaction. At low plant densities (up to about30 plants m^–2) the three transplanted treatments yieldedless than the hand-sown controls, and late transplanting yieldedless than early. At the highest density the situation was reversed;all three transplanted treatments out-yielded the controls andlate transplanting tended to out-yield plants transplanted early.The biggest yield was 340 g seed m^–2 from a transplantedcrop grown at 35 plants m^–2. The data on yield fitted a modified rectangular hyperbola ofthe form where y is yield per unit area, p is the number of plants perunit area, t is the number of days between sowing and transplanting,and B_o, n, m, and p are arbitrary parameters. This equationaccounted for 91 per cent of the variation in yield with t andp. It is suggested that late transplanting had adverse effects,due to transplanting ‘shock’ and which were mostmarked at low plant densities; and beneficial effects, ascribableto an effect on plant ‘plasticity’, which were mostmarked at high plant densities. Possible physiological mechanismsof these effects are discussed. Phaseolus vulgaris, yield, density, transplanting     

Time-related identification of chromosome regions affecting plant elongation in rice (Oryza sativa L.).

We investigated the time-related changes of Chromosome Regions that Affect Traits (CRATs) for elongation rate in rice (Oryza sativa L.) using chromosome segment substitution lines (CSSLs) carrying a single chromosome segment of the cultivar Kasalath (indica) in a Koshihikari (japonica) genetic background. The growth period of rice was partitioned into eight stages (each lasting 5-7days) from 18days after transplanting, and the elongation rate was determined as the increase of total plant height per time at each growth stage. CRATs for plant elongation rate were determined based on graphical genotype data of CSSLs that showed a significantly higher or lower elongation rate than Koshihikari. In total, 23 CRATs for plant elongation rate were detected, and different CRATs acted at different growth stages. Fifteen CRATs increased the elongation rate through Kasalath alleles, and eight increased it through Koshihikari alleles. These results suggest that plant height in rice is regulated in a stage-specific manner by a variety of genetic mechanisms that control plant elongation rate. Kasalath alleles of PE1-9 increased the elongation rate at an early growth stage (18-25days after transplanting), while Koshihikari alleles of PE8-3 decreased the elongation rate at a late growth stage (68-74days after transplanting). In a line that contained both of these CRATs, the elongation rate at the early growth stage was increased without affecting plant height at harvesting. We conclude that stage-specific optimization of plant height in rice may be achieved by combining CRATs that control plant elongation at specific stages.     

基于辐热积法模拟烤烟叶面积与烟叶干物质产量

烟叶叶面积增长与干物质累积是烤烟产量形成的主要部分,对品质的形成也有影响。本研究根据气温和光照对烤烟叶片生长和干物质累积的影响,基于辐热积理论建立了适用于不同烟区的烤烟叶面积模型和干物质累积模型,分别使用独立的试验数据建模及对模型进行检验,再通过多年次烟叶干重试验数据对模型进行检验。结果表明,与传统的预测方法相比,用辐热积模型获得的叶面积模拟值与实测值间1:1线的决定系数（R2）和RMSE值为0.9634和0.1653 m2/株,预测精度比SLA法和GDD法分别提高了93%和82%。模型对叶干重模拟的RMSE值为27.1 g/m2,用历年玉溪试验数据检验的RE值为24.5%,说明模型的拟合度和可靠性较好。本研究所建立的模型能够利用气温、日照等常规气象观测数据,动态预测烤烟叶面积增长和干物质累积,且模型参数少,符合度好,实用性强,可以为烤烟生产中的产量预测提供理论依据和决策支持。