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1.
In this article a modification to the CHIANG'S method of construction of the current life table is presented by using a new set of estimates of nax, derived under certain simplified assumptions.  相似文献   

2.
The concepts of longevity (longest lived) and life expectancy (typical age at death) are common demographic parameters that provide insight into a population. Defined as the longest lived individual, longevity is easily calculated but is not representative, as only one individual will live to this extreme. Longevity records for North American Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) and African elephants (Loxodonta africana) have not yet been set, as the oldest individuals (77 and 53 years, respectively) are still alive. One Asian elephant lived to 86 years in the Taipei Zoo. This is comparable to the maximum (though not typical) longevity estimated in wild populations. Calculation of life expectancy, however, must use statistics that are appropriate for the data available, the distribution of the data, and the species' biology. Using a simple arithmetic mean to describe the non‐normally distributed age at death for elephant populations underestimates life expectancy. Use of life‐table analysis to estimate median survivorship or survival analysis to estimate average survivorship are more appropriate for the species' biology and the data available, and provide more accurate estimates. Using a life‐table, the median life expectancy for female Asian elephants (Lx=0.50) is 35.9 years in North America and 41.9 years in Europe. Survival analysis estimates of average life expectancy for Asian elephants are 47.6 years in Europe and 44.8 years in North America. Survival analysis estimates for African elephants are less robust due to less data. Currently the African elephant average life expectancy estimate in North America is 33.0 years, but this is likely to increase with more data, as it has over the past 10 years. Zoo Biol 23:365–373, 2004. © 2004 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.  相似文献   

3.
Many long‐lived plant and animal species have nondiscrete overlapping generations. Although numerous models have been developed to predict the effective sizes (Ne) of populations with overlapping generations, they are extremely difficult to apply to natural populations because of the large array of unknown and elusive life‐table parameters involved. Unfortunately, little work has been done to estimate the Ne of populations with overlapping generations from marker data, in sharp contrast to the situation of populations with discrete generations for which quite a few estimators are available. In this study, we propose an estimator (EPA, estimator by parentage assignments) of the current Ne of populations with overlapping generations, using the sex, age, and multilocus genotype information of a single sample of individuals taken at random from the population. Simulations show that EPA provides unbiased and accurate estimates of Ne under realistic sampling and genotyping effort. Additionally, it yields estimates of other interesting parameters such as generation interval, the variances and covariances of lifetime family size, effective number of breeders of each age class, and life‐table variables. Data from wild populations of baboons and hihi (stitchbird) were analyzed by EPA to demonstrate the use of the estimator in practical sampling and genotyping situations.  相似文献   

4.
Intraguild predation (IGP) is pervasive in many managed and unmanaged ecosystems and may have negative, neutral or positive effects on the biological control of pest insects. Both generalist predators and aphelinid parasitoids attack Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) Biotype B (=B. argentifolii Perring & Bellows) on cotton in the southwestern USA. Free-choice and no-choice laboratory assays were conducted to quantify prey consumption patterns and preference by three representative generalist predators, Geocoris punctipes (Say), Orius insidiosus (Say), and Hippodamia convergens Guérin-Méneville, offered fourth instar B. tabaci nymphs and nymphs parasitized by Eretmocerus sp. nr. emiratus. All three predators showed a significant preference for larval and pupal stage parasitoids over early fourth instar nymphs, but G. punctipes and O. insidiosus were non-discriminating when offered a choice of larval parasitoids and late fourth instar nymphs. The potential implications of these observed patterns for the field were examined through sensitivity analyses of existing field life table data. First, preference for parasitized hosts alters the methods required for calculating marginal rates of parasitism. Incorporating a preference variable in the estimation procedure had a very small positive effect (0.02–1.13% change) on total generational mortalities observed in previous life table studies. However, further hypothetical analyses suggested that under circumstances of lower generational mortality and higher levels of either apparent parasitism or predation, high levels of predator preference for parasitized prey could alter estimates of total mortality as much as 14%. Second, although intraguild predation was demonstrated, the implications for biological control are unclear. Based on field life table data the rate of IGP ranged from 0.019 to 0.126 depending on predator species and prey comparison, but accounting for these levels of IGP had only small negative effects on total generational mortalities (0.193–1.278% change).  相似文献   

5.

Background:

The traditional Chinese theory of acupuncture emphasizes that the intensity of acupuncture must reach a threshold to generate de qi, which is necessary to achieve the best therapeutic effect. De qi is an internal compound sensation of soreness, tingling, fullness, aching, cool, warmth and heaviness, and a radiating sensation at and around the acupoints. However, the notion that de qi must be achieved for maximum benefit has not been confirmed by modern scientific evidence.

Methods:

We performed a prospective multicentre randomized controlled trial involving patients with Bell palsy. Patients were randomly assigned to the de qi (n = 167) or control (n = 171) group. Both groups received acupuncture: in the de qi group, the needles were manipulated manually until de qi was reached, whereas in the control group, the needles were inserted without any manipulation. All patients received prednisone as a basic treatment. The primary outcome was facial nerve function at month 6. We also assessed disability and quality of life 6 months after randomization.

Results:

After 6 months, patients in the de qi group had better facial function (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 4.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.23–7.78), better disability assessment (differences of least squares means 9.80, 95% CI 6.29–13.30) and better quality of life (differences of least squares means 29.86, 95% CI 22.33–37.38). Logistic regression analysis showed a positive effect of the de qi score on facial-nerve function (adjusted OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.04–1.09).

Interpretation:

Among patients with Bell palsy, acupuncture with strong stimulation that elicited de qi had a greater therapeutic effect, and stronger intensity of de qi was associated with the better therapeutic effects. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov no. NCT00685789.The use of acupuncture has gained increasing attention worldwide.1,2 There is a long-held belief in the traditional theory and clinical practice of acupuncture that the intensity of the stimulus must reach a threshold to elicit de qi, which plays a pivotal role in achieving the best therapeutic effects.3,4De qi — an internal compound sensation of soreness, tingling, fullness, aching, cool, warmth, heaviness and a radiating sensation at and around acupoints — is elicited by manipulation of the needles (rotated as well as being moved upward and downward).5 The concept of de qi, originating from the long-term accumulation of clinical experiences, has been explained to some degree by several scientific studies.611 However, this long-held belief has not been confirmed by sufficient evidence from randomized controlled trials.5 Consequently, de qi and its related techniques have been neglected in acupuncture practice and research. As such, the therapeutic effects of acupuncture may be seriously compromised.1214In this study, we compared the efficacy of acupuncture with either strong (intended to elicit de qi) or weak stimulation among patients with Bell palsy.  相似文献   

6.
WEIBULL models are fitted to synthetic life table data by applying weighted least squares analysis to log log functions which are constructed from appropriate underlying contingency tables. As such, the resulting estimates and test statistics are based on the linearized minimum modified X21-criterion and thus have satisfactory properties in moderately large samples. The basic methodology is illustrated in terms of an example which is bivariate in the sense of involving two simultaneous, but non-competing, vital events. For this situation, the estimation of WEIBULL model parameters is described for both marginal as well as certain conditional distributions either individually or jointly.  相似文献   

7.
In order to evaluate population-level effects of p-nonylphenol on a cladoceran zooplankton (Daphnia galeata), the chronic effects on survival and reproduction were estimated with partial life table tests, which examined responses in life history characters until 3 weeks after birth. The observed responses in survival and reproduction were converted to reductions of the intrinsic rate of natural increase r. The population level EC50, which is defined as the exposure concentration that reduces r by 50%, was estimated as 16.1 g l–1. In order to examine the extent to which the population-level effect in terms of r is influenced by extra mortality in nature, which is induced by predation, starvation, etc., sensitivity (elasticity) measures of the intrinsic rate of natural increase to reductions in age-specific survival and reproduction were calculated under hypothetical predation schemes. The sensitivities of the intrinsic rate to changes in survival and reproduction invariably decline rapidly after the onset of reproduction irrespective of predation schemes. This implies that partial life cycle tests until 21 days after birth can provide reliable estimates of the population-level effects.  相似文献   

8.
Life table statistics and degree-day requirements for Gonatocerus ashmeadi Girault, a parasitoid of the glassy-winged sharpshooter Homalodisca coagulata (Say), were used to estimate the number of expected parasitoid generations in California (USA). Between two to 51 and one to 37 generations per year were estimated across different climatic regions in California, using life table and degree-day models, respectively. Temperature-based values for net reproductive rate, Ro, were estimated in California using a laboratory-derived equation and ranged from zero to approximately 48 and analyses indicate that a minimum of eight generations are required each year to sustain a population increase of G. ashmeadi. Long-term weather data from 381 weather stations across California were used with an Inverse-Distance Weighting algorithm to map temperature-based estimations for the entire state of California. This Geographic Information Systems model was used to determine number of G. ashmeadi generations based on day-degree accumulation, Tc, and Ro. GIS mapping indicated that Californian counties in the north, central west coast, central west and Sierra Nevada regions may be climatic conditions unfavorable for supporting the permanent establishment of invading populations of G. ashmeadi should H. coagulata successfully establish year-round populations in these areas. Southern counties in California that experience warmer year round temperatures and support year round populations of H. coagulata, appear to be conducive to the establishment of permanent populations of G. ashmeadi. The mechanisms facilitating G. ashmeadi invasion and the implications of these temperature-based estimates for biological control of H. coagulata are discussed.  相似文献   

9.
Taking a published natural population life table of rice leaf roller, Cnaphalocrocis medinalis (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), as an example, we estimated the population trend index, I, via re‐sampling methods (jackknife and bootstrap), determined its statistical properties and illustrated the application of these methods in determining the control effectiveness of bio‐agents and chemical insecticides. Depending on the simulation outputs, the smoothed distribution pattern of the estimates of I by delete‐1 jackknife is visually distinguishable from the normal density, but the smoothed pattern produced by delete‐d jackknife, and logarithm‐transformed smoothed patterns produced by both empirical and parametric bootstraps, matched well the corresponding normal density. Thus, the estimates of I produced by delete‐1 jackknife were not used to determine the suppressive effect of wasps and insecticides. The 95% percent confidence intervals or the narrowest 95 percentiles and Z‐test criterion were employed to compare the effectiveness of Trichogramma japonicum Ashmead and insecticides (powder, 1.5% mevinphos + 3% alpha‐hexachloro cyclohexane) against the rice leaf roller based on the estimates of I produced by delete‐d jackknife and bootstrap techniques. At α= 0.05 level, there were statistical differences between wasp treatment and control, and between wasp and insecticide treatments, if the normality is ensured, or by the narrowest 95 percentiles. However, there is still no difference between insecticide treatment and control. By Z‐test criterion, wasp treatment is better than control and insecticide treatment with P‐value < 0.01. Insecticide treatment is similar to control with P‐value > 0.2 indicating that 95% confidence intervals procedure is more conservative. Although similar conclusions may be drawn by re‐sampling techniques, such as the delta method, about the suppressive effect of trichogramma and insecticides, the normality of the estimates can be checked and guaranteed, and the correlation among sequential life stages of rice leaf roller is also considered in the estimation. Judged by the P‐values from Z‐test, the delta method is more conservative.  相似文献   

10.
1. Centenarian species, defined as those taxa with life spans that frequently exceed 100 years, have long been of interest to ecologists because they represent an extreme end point in a continuum of life history strategies. One frequently reported example of a freshwater centenarian is the obligate cave crayfish Orconectes australis, with a maximum longevity reported to exceed 176 years. As a consequence of its reported longevity, O. australis has been used as a textbook example of life history adaptation to the organic‐carbon limitation that characterises many cave‐stream food webs. 2. Despite being widely reported, uncertainties surround the original estimates of longevity for O. australis, which were based on a single study dating from the mid‐1970s. In the present study, we re‐evaluated the growth rate, time‐to‐maturity, female age‐at‐first‐reproduction and longevity of O. australis using a mark–recapture study of more than 5 years based upon more than 3800 free‐ranging individuals from three isolated cave streams in the south‐eastern United States. 3. The results of our study indicate that accurate estimates of the longevity of O. australis are ≤22 years, with only a small proportion of individuals (<5%) exceeding this age. Our estimates for female time‐to‐maturity (4–5 years) and age‐at‐first‐reproduction (5–6 years) are also substantially lower than earlier estimates. 4. These new data indicate that the age thresholds for life history events of O. australis are comparable to other estimates for a modest assemblage of cave and surface species of crayfish for which credible age estimate exists, suggesting that a cave environment per se is not required for the evolution of extreme longevity in crayfish.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract In this work we report on the seasonal trends of abundances in terms of temperature exposure for four coexisting cladoceran species (Daphnia ambigua (Daphniidae), Ceriodaphnia dubia (Daphniidae), Diaphanosoma chilense (Sididae) and Moina micrura (Moinidae)) from a Chilean temperate lake. In order to compare the demographic response to temperature, we used life table experiments to parameterize matrix models for the four species at four fixed temperatures. From these life table response experiments we assessed the effects of temperature, species and their interaction on the variation in growth rate, as well as the contribution of juvenile survival, adult survival, fertility and age at first reproduction to the changes in growth rate. Our results showed interspecific differences in the effect of temperature on the growth rate. Species that present higher field abundance at lower temperature also exhibited, under controlled experiments, higher growth rates at low temperature and lower growth rates at high temperature, relative to the additive model. Conversely, species with higher abundances during the warmer seasons exhibited higher growth rates at higher experimental temperatures and lower growth rates at lower temperatures, relative to the additive model. The vital rates that most contributed to the variation in growth rate were age at first reproduction and fertility. Our growth rate estimates matched predictions of the metabolic ecology model.  相似文献   

12.
James R. Carey 《Oecologia》1989,78(1):131-137
Summary The multiple decrement life table is used widely in the human actuarial literature and provides statistical expressions for mortality in three different forms: i) the life table from all causes-of-death combined; ii) the life table disaggregated into selected cause-of-death categories; and iii) the life table with particular causes and combinations of causes eliminated. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the multiple decrement life table to the ecological literature by applying the methods to published death-by-cause information on Rhagoletis pomonella. Interrelations between the current approach and conventional tools used in basic and applied ecology are discussed including the conventional life table, Key Factor Analysis and Abbott's Correction used in toxicological bioassay.  相似文献   

13.
An application ofHokyo andKiritani 's method (1967) was attempted to estimate the stage specific survival rates of the population with overlapping stages. This method can be written as follows assuming a constant daily survival rate (K) throughout the life: where, and F refer respectively to the total incidence of ith instar nymphs and that of individuals after ith instar inclusive, and αi refers to the developmental period of ith instar. Application of this model to caged and natural populations of the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula, was made to test its validity. The estimates of the initial number of successive stages obtained from the present method were compared with those fromRichards andWaloff 's method (1954) for the caged populations of 1st, 2nd and 3rd generations. The superiority of the present method to theRichards andWaloff 's in estimating adult numbers was shown in all the generations examined. When different daily survival rates are involved in the course of population decrease, application of the revised method proposed byHokyo andKiritani (1967), gives much reliable estimate as compared with one before correction. The present method is useful in constructing life table of such species as scale insects which complete their life cycle within a defined space, but their successive stages overlap considerably.  相似文献   

14.
Proteinase inhibitors are recognized as potential plant protection agents against pest insects and their use is an alternative for integrated pest management. Berenil is an example of a synthetic trypsin inhibitor and its potential for use as insecticide was assessed against Thyrinteina arnobia (Stoll) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), one of the main eucalypt defoliators in Brazil. Insect survival and its life history traits including developmental time, pupa weight and viability, and life table parameters of T. arnobia were assessed in larvae reared on eucalyptus leaves containing 0.00%, 0.06%, 0.12%, 0.25%, 0.50% and 0.75% (w/v) of the synthetic trypsin inhibitor berenil. In addition, food preference and leaf consumption of T. arnobia caterpillars were also assessed. Berenil delayed larval development. Larva survival was severely affected by berenil, which also delayed larval development. Sub‐lethal concentrations of berenil compromised life table parameters of T. arnobia reducing its net reproductive rate and population growth rate, while extending generation time. Berenil was also deterrent to T. arnobia and did not elicit larva compensatory feeding. The berenil activity as insecticide, repellent and antifeedant against T. arnobia suggests its potential use against eucalyptus defoliating caterpillars.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract Age‐stage, two‐sex life tables of the melon fly, Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillett) (Diptera: Tephritidae), reared on cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.), sponge gourd (Luffa cylindrica Roem) and a carrot medium (mashed Daucus carota L. mixed with sucrose and yeast hydrolysate) were constructed under laboratory conditions at 25 ± 1°C, 65%± 0.5% relative humidity, and a photoperiod 12 : 12 h (L : D). The intrinsic rates of increase of B. cucurbitae were 0.144 6, 0.141 2 and 0.068 8 days on cucumber, sponge gourd, and carrot medium, respectively. The highest net reproduction rate was 172 offspring per fly reared on sponge gourd. The mean generation times of B. cucurbitae ranged from 34 days reared on cucumber to 56 days reared on carrot medium. The life history raw data was analyzed using the traditional female age‐specific life table and compared to results obtained using the age‐stage, two‐sex life table. When the age‐specific female life table is applied to an age‐stage‐structured two‐sex population, survival and fecundity curves will be improperly manipulated due to an inability to include variation in preadult development time. We discussed different interpretations of the relationship between the net reproductive rate and the intrinsic rate of increase to clarify possible misunderstanding in the literature.  相似文献   

16.
Molecular genetic estimates of population effective size (Ne) lose accuracy and precision when insufficient numbers of samples or loci are used. Ideally, researchers would like to forecast the necessary power when planning their project. neogen (genetic Ne for Overlapping Generations) enables estimates of precision and accuracy in advance of empirical investigation and allows exploration of the power available in different user‐specified age‐structured sampling schemes. neogen provides a population simulation and genetic power analysis framework that simulates the demographics, genetic composition, and Ne, from species‐specific life history, mortality, population size, and genetic priors. neogen guides the user to establish a tractable sampling regime and to determine the numbers of samples and microsatellite or SNP loci required for accurate and precise genetic Ne estimates when sampling a natural population. neogen is useful at multiple stages of a study's life cycle: when budgeting, as sampling and locus development progresses, and for corroboration when empirical Ne estimates are available. The underlying model is applicable to a wide variety of iteroparous species with overlapping generations (e.g., mammals, birds, reptiles, long‐lived fishes). In this paper, we describe the neogen model, detail the workflow for the point‐and‐click software, and explain the graphical results. We demonstrate the use of neogen with empirical Australian east coast zebra shark (Stegostoma fasciatum) data. For researchers wishing to make accurate and precise genetic Ne estimates for overlapping generations species, neogen facilitates planning for sample and locus acquisition, and with existing empirical genetic Ne estimates neogen can corroborate population demographic and life history properties.  相似文献   

17.
The sweet potato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci (Genn.) (Hem.: Aleyrodidae), is a major pest of agricultural and greenhouse crops worldwide. In this study, we used the age-stage two-sex life table to evaluate sub-lethal effects of the botanical extract taken from Calotropis procera (Asclepiadaceae) on B. tabaci and compared these effects with those obtained from exposing the pest to the four synthetic pesticides, abamectin, imidacloprid, diazinon and pymetrozin. The toxicity of the chemical insecticides and C. procera extract on adult whiteflies was assayed using the leaf-dip method. The exposed whiteflies showed significant differences in the net reproductive rate (R0), intrinsic rates of increase (r), finite rate of increase (λ) and mean generation times (T). The lowest amounts of R0, r, λ and T parameters were observed in diazinon (2.373, 0.036, 1.036, and 24.590) and pymetrozin (2.455, 0.036, 1.036, and 25.281), respectively. Additionally, the parameters obtained from the age-stage two-sex life table method were compared to those of traditional female age-specific life table. Statistical analysis revealed no significant difference among parameters obtained from the two life table methods. Results of this study implies on potential of C. procera extract for control of B. tabaci comparable to chemical pesticides.  相似文献   

18.
Life table studies allow for a better understanding of mortality factors against insect pests. It assesses each mortality factor and its parameters in population suppression. Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) is one of the major pests of solanaceous crops in South America. The background information provided by life table studies might be used for developing management strategies for controlling N. elegantalis. Thus, the aim of this study was to identify and quantify the mortality factors of N. elegantalis in tomato cultivation by using life tables. The results were obtained from 64 ecological life tables. The mortality factors for eggs, larvae and pupae were due to rain, fruit drop, predation, parasitism and unviability caused by physiological disorder and diseases. The percentage of total death for eggs, larvae and pupae were 64.2%, 24.9% and 5.93%, respectively. The highest rates of mortality were caused by predation and parasitism. Thus, mortality of N. elegantalis caused by natural enemies might be used as a basis for determining which methods are better for controlling N. elegantalis while having the lowest possible impact on its natural enemies.  相似文献   

19.
Fopius (= Biosteres) arisanus (Sonan) (= Opius oophilus Fullaway) is an egg-pupal parasitoid of tephritid fruit flies. Our breakthrough in the development of a laboratory-adapted strain of F. arisanus facilitated insectary rearing of parasitoids in large numbers. First colonized in captivity in 1989, F. arisanus has been reared routinely on the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera (= Dacus) dorsalis (Hendel), its natural host. Parasitization by F. arisanus results in the latent death of developing hosts. Host mortality data are presented in a life table to estimate cost of parasitization on the economics of F. arisanus mass rearing. Percent kills of 10, 32, and 76% exerted by F. arisanus on the egg, larval, and pupal stages of the rearing hosts, respectively, resulted in a mean parasitoid recovery of 23.6%. The production cost was estimated by integrating life table data with the costs of rearing supplies and materials and personnel-hours requirements. Production of 1 million parasitoid adults requires the exposure of 4.2 million B. dorsalis eggs (= propagation hosts). We estimated the cost of producing 1 million parasitoids to be $2,363.30 and identified the most expensive aspects of F. arisanus rearing. Recommendations for streamlining the rearing process to reduce costs are provided.  相似文献   

20.
Effects of entomopathogenic fungus Isaria fumosorosea on biological characteristics and life table parameters of Axinoscymnus cardilobus, a predator of whiteflies, were studied using five different conidial concentrations under laboratory conditions. Non-significant differences were observed among different fungal concentrations on the percent survival of all immature stages. The survival of A. cardilobus on different host plants did not differ significantly. The prey consumption of third instar A. cardilobus on Bemisia tabaci treated with different fungal concentrations differed significantly at different time intervals. The developmental periods for all immature stages (from eggs, first, second, third, fourth instar nymph and pupae up to emergence) among the treatments were not statistically significant when compared to that of control. In the present study, fecundity, longevity, egg viability and life table parameters of females were not statistically significant over the different concentrations. It can be concluded that control strategies tested are compatible to a greater extent and incorporation of these have promising prospects for control of whitefly.  相似文献   

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