When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (N_e) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify the size and trend of stable or declining populations (true N = 100–10,000), using simulated Wright–Fisher populations. Neither method accurately or precisely estimated abundance at sample sizes of S = 30 individuals, regardless of true N. However, if larger samples of S = 60 or 120 individuals were collected, these methods provided useful insights into abundance and trends for populations of N = 100–500. At small population sizes (N = 100 or 250), precision of the N_e estimates was improved slightly more by a doubling of loci sampled than by a doubling of individuals sampled. In general, monitoring N_e proved a more robust means of identifying stable and declining populations than monitoring N over most of the parameter space we explored, and performance of the N_e estimator is further enhanced if the N_e/N ratio is low. However, at the largest population size (N = 10,000), N estimation outperformed N_e. Both methods generally required ≥ 5 generations to pass between sampling events to correctly identify population trend.     

Bio-demographic change and socio-economic trends in Bulgaria

Recent bio-demographic change in Bulgaria is analysed in conjunction with socio-economic trends. The exceptionally serious problem of the "ageing population" is outlined, and its main socio-economic consequences are discussed. The main reason for the population aging is the low fertility rate and the large number of emigrants, especially during the last decade. For the population in Bulgaria to grow at all, policies need to be adopted to increase the fertility rate, lower the emigration rate, and provide incentives for those who have already left the country to return. Furthermore, social policies are needed to support the family, in order to encourage fertility and improve the social and health status of population. The socio-economic crisis that began in the 1990s must be overcome before the standard of living can increase.     

Population trends of Rooks Corvus frugilegus in Spain and the importance of refuse tips

Anthropogenic food from refuse tips can affect population dynamics in birds, especially gulls, but the evidence is mostly circumstantial. We combine analyses of long-term population data and natural experiments to show a positive effect of refuse tips on the growth of the Spanish breeding population of Rooks Corvus frugilegus . In this isolated population of around 2000 breeding pairs, monitored since 1976, birds in colonies less than 10 km from tips fed largely on refuse, particularly during periods of lowest natural food availability. Three lines of evidence support the hypothesis that the supply of refuse influenced breeding numbers, suggesting that this population is limited by food: 1) between 1976 and 2003, the two population nuclei that had access to tips increased 2.1 and 3.7 times more than that without a tip nearby; 2) annual colony growth between 1996 and 2003 was strongly correlated with the availability of tips when other potentially important variables were taken into account; 3) the number of breeding pairs in refuse-foraging colonies declined rapidly after the closure of the local tip and recovered only when a supply of refuse was restored. The effect of tips on colony growth was stronger when the availability of natural foraging habitat around the colonies was low, suggesting that anthropogenic food acts as a buffer against shortage of natural food. Artificial food supplementation may be an effective tool to increase the breeding population of target species, especially those facing a reduction of their foraging habitats. The potential effects on bird species of Directive 1999/31/CE, which is enforcing a massive closure of tips in Europe, are discussed.     

Abundance trends of American martens in Michigan based on statistical population reconstruction

Estimating the dynamics of furbearer populations is challenging because their elusive behavior and low densities make observations difficult. Statistical population reconstruction is a flexible approach to demographic assessment for harvested populations, but the technique has not been applied to furbearers. We extended this approach to furbearers and analyzed 8 yr of age-at-harvest data for American marten (Martes americana) in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Marten abundance estimates showed a general downward trend from an estimate of = 1,733.3 animals in 2000 to = 1,163.9 in 2007. The harvest probability of martens increased nearly 5-fold from 0.0542 in 2000 to 0.2637 in 2007, which corresponded to a 5-fold increase in trap-nights. Continued monitoring of martens in the Upper Peninsula, Michigan, and a reassessment of current harvest regulations are necessary given the estimated decreases. Moreover, we do not encourage the use of harvest indices as the sole technique to assess the status and trends of marten and fisher populations. Auxiliary studies in the Upper Peninsula, Michigan, will allow for continued use and improvement in the application of these models. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Temporal trends in femoral curvature and length in medieval and modern Scotland

We measured how much the radius of the anterior curvature and the length of the femoral shaft of cadaveric bones have changed from medieval to recent times. Around 20 (x, y) coordinates of a virtual coordinate system were measured at intervals of 1.5 cm along the shaft of the femur to calculate one single radius of a virtual circle in the (x, y) plane. The median radii of curvature were 119, 141, and 158 cm for medieval, early, and late 20th century femora, respectively. Early and late 20th century femora were of similar length (45 cm), but medieval femora were shorter (43.5 cm). Femora have become not only longer but also straighter since the Middle Ages. These findings account in part for the increase in height of modern generations. Size and shape changes may have significant implications for the biomechanical response of the femur to the forces to which it is subjected in everyday life, in trauma, and following surgical intervention.     

Quantile regression estimates of animal population trends

Ecologists often estimate population trends of animals in time series of counts using linear regression to estimate parameters in a linear transformation of multiplicative growth models, where logarithms of rates of change in counts in time intervals are used as response variables. We present quantile regression estimates for the median (0.50) and interquartile (0.25, 0.75) relationships as an alternative to mean regression estimates for common density-dependent and density-independent population growth models. We demonstrate that the quantile regression estimates are more robust to outliers and require fewer distributional assumptions than conventional mean regression estimates and can provide information on heterogeneous rates of change ignored by mean regression. We provide quantile regression trend estimates for 2 populations of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, and for the Crawford population of Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) in southwestern Colorado, USA. Our selected Gompertz models of density dependence for both populations of greater sage-grouse had smaller negative estimates of density-dependence terms and less variation in corresponding predicted growth rates (λ) for quantile than mean regression models. In contrast, our selected Gompertz models of density dependence with piecewise linear effects of years for the Crawford population of Gunnison sage-grouse had predicted changes in λ across years from quantile regressions that varied more than those from mean regression because of heterogeneity in estimated λs that were both less and greater than mean estimates. Our results add to literature establishing that quantile regression provides better behaved estimates than mean regression when there are outlying growth rates, including those induced by adjustments for zeros in the time series of counts. The 0.25 and 0.75 quantiles bracketing the median provide robust estimates of population changes (λ) for the central 50% of time series data and provide a 50% prediction interval for a single new prediction without making parametric distributional assumptions or assuming homogeneous λs. Compared to mean estimates, our quantile regression trend estimates for greater sage-grouse indicated less variation in density-dependent λs by minimizing sensitivity to outlying values, and for Gunnison sage-grouse indicated greater variation in density-dependent λs associated with heterogeneity among quantiles.     

Can effective population size estimates be used to monitor population trends of woodland bats? A case study of Myotis bechsteinii

Molecular approaches to calculate effective population size estimates (Ne) are increasingly used as an alternative to long‐term demographic monitoring of wildlife populations. However, the complex ecology of most long‐lived species and the consequent uncertainties in model assumptions means that effective population size estimates are often imprecise. Although methods exist to incorporate age structure into Ne estimations for long‐lived species with overlapping generations, they are rarely used owing to the lack of relevant information for most wild populations. Here, we performed a case study on an elusive woodland bat, Myotis bechsteinii, to compare the use of the parentage assignment Ne estimator (EPA) with the more commonly used linkage disequilibrium (LD) Ne estimator in detecting long‐term population trends, and assessed the impacts of deploying different overall sample sizes. We used genotypic data from a previously published study, and simulated 48 contrasting demographic scenarios over 150 years using the life history characteristics of this species The LD method strongly outperformed the EPA method. As expected, smaller sample sizes resulted in a reduced ability to detect population trends. Nevertheless, even the smallest sample size tested (n = 30) could detect important changes (60%–80% decline) with the LD method. These results demonstrate that genetic approaches can be an effective way to monitor long‐lived species, such as bats, provided that they are undertaken over multiple decades.     

Changes in forest fragment sizes and primate population trends along the River Tana floodplain, Kenya

The Tana River forest patches significantly decreased in total area by 1875 ha (34.5%), from 5439 to 3564 ha between 1979 and 2000. The area covered by forests outside the Tana River Primate National Reserve declined by 1246 ha (38%) from 3283 to 2037 ha. This loss was higher than that inside the reserve, where total forest area reduced by 629 ha (29%) from 2156 to 1527 ha. The numbers of Tana River red colobus (Procolobus rufomitratus) and Tana crested mangabey (Cercocebus galeritus galeritus) groups were significantly correlated with forest sizes suggesting that both red colobus and crested mangabeys are likely to be affected by forest loss and fragmentation. However, comparison of the 1974/75 and 2001 census data did not reveal any significant change in the number of groups of either the red colobus or crested mangabey. The two endangered primates may have developed strategies to cope with a shrinking habitat.     

河北省东亚飞蝗发生动态及未来灾变趋势分析

80年代以来 ,尤其进入 90年代 ,由于受异常气候、农业生态及人为因素的影响 ,河北省东亚飞蝗Locustamigratoriamanilensis (Meyen)出现了暴发频次增加、发生期提前、秋蝗发生加重、潜在和隐伏蝗区突发等特点。作者分析了 5 0年来影响河北省东亚飞蝗发生动态的 5种因素 :气象因素、生态因素、湖库水位因素、河泛流量因素、人为因素等。并对河北省东亚飞蝗未来灾变趋势做了展望。     

Population trends and habitat use of Harlequin Ducks in Rhode Island

ABSTRACT.   To assess population trends of Harlequin Ducks ( Histrionicus histrionicus ) in Rhode Island (U.S.A.), we analyzed Christmas Bird Counts and other historical surveys and also conducted surveys during the winter of 2005–2006. We estimated sex and age ratios, evaluated the effects of tidal regime and time of day on survey precision, and quantified habitat use. The population in Rhode Island experienced logistic growth from 1976 to 2004, with approximately 150 birds now wintering at three primary sites in the state. We estimated that the current ratio of males to females in the region was 1.6:1 (62% males) and that 13% of males were first-winter birds. Most Harlequin Ducks were observed in rocky habitats within 50 m of the shore or offshore islands. We detected the greatest numbers of birds, with the least amount of variation, during morning surveys at low tide, suggesting that this may be the most appropriate time for population monitoring. Increases in the Rhode Island population and male-biased sex ratios may indicate a local population recovery resulting from a hunting ban initiated in 1990. Although most Harlequin Ducks in eastern North America winter in Maine, the population in Rhode Island represents one of the largest in the southern part of their range.     

Mute Swans in Great Britain: a review,current status and long-term trends

We review the recent history of the Mute Swan in Great Britain and discuss the factors known to be affecting the population. Following a rise in the national population during the 1950s, numbers decreased sharply during the 1960s, and changed relatively little between 1970/71 and 1984/85. However, there has been considerable regional variation in the fortunes of Mute Swan populations during this period, with dramatic declines in some areas. Although several factors were thought to be contributing to such declines, poisoning from the ingestion of lead fishing weights was shown to be the largest single cause of death amongst swans in a number of areas. Voluntary measures to address this problem were initiated in 1982 and culminated in the banning by law of use of lead weights in 1987.Winter counts were used to investigate the current status and distribution of the Mute Swan in Great Britain and to examine long-term regional trends. The maximum total count reached 12600 birds in January 1990, which compares with an average of 9550 for the previous five winters. However, accounting for birds missed, the population may now number at least 25 000. Peak total numbers have mostly occurred in September, after which numbers remain approximately stable until December and then decline. Patterns of seasonal abundance vary between regions and habitats and these are discussed.The British population has increased dramatically since 1986/87 and reached its highest level for 27 years in 1987/88. There have been recent increases in most regions with record levels being reached mostly in 1987 or 1988, and there has been growth in the numbers on all habitat types, especially on reservoirs, gravel extraction pits and freshwater marshes. The timing of these increases corresponds very closely with the introduction of legislation against the use of lead fishing weights, and the incidence of lead poisoning is known to have been considerably reduced by such measures.     

An accessible scheme for monitoring free‐roaming cat population trends

Free‐roaming cats (FRCs) form nondomiciliary population groups that might lead to adverse environmental effects, as well as to welfare impairment of the cats themselves. Though criticized by ecologists, for the last two decades, the trap–neuter–return (TNR) programs were often employed aiming to manage these populations. At present, no accepted and accessible monitoring scheme exists to determine the effectiveness of those programs. In the current study, we present the reliability and validity of an applicable monitoring scheme, as an adjunct tool for a TNR program of FRC in an urban environment. The monitoring scheme is based on cat observation counts along randomly chosen transects. Fifty‐four transects were repeatedly walked for three years, between 2012‐2014, in 27 neighborhoods within an urban area of 19.3 Km². Cat numbers counted in the 2014 observations were significantly higher than cat numbers found in the 2012 observations (prevalence ratio = 1.258, CI_95%= 1.198–1.322, p < 0.001). The method revealed high reliability when different observers and different transects in the same neighborhood were compared (R² = 0.548 and R² = 0.391, respectively, for measuring cat counts per km, p < 0.001; and R² = 0.5 and R² = 0.74, respectively, for measuring neutering percentage, p < 0.001). This scheme was constructively validated by measurements of municipal data on the number of neutered cats and demonstrated high correlation (R² = 0.59, p < 0.001). Conducting cat observations using friendly calling and feeding resulted in an increased number of FRC observed per km walk (by 79% and 22%–30%, respectively). However, these manipulations did not alter the recorded percentage of neutered cats. The proposed scheme provides spatio‐temporal data that can contribute to the management programs of such cat metapopulations in an urban environment.     

Genetic trends in a population evolving antibiotic resistance

The evolution of antibiotic resistance provides a well-documented, rapid, and recent example of a selection driven process that has occurred in many bacterial species. An exhaustive collection of Moraxella catarrhalis that spans a transition to chromosomally encoded penicillin resistance was used to analyze genetic changes accompanying the transition. The population was characterized by high haplotypic diversity with 148 distinct haplotypes among 372 isolates tested at three genomic regions. The power of a temporally stratified sample from a single population was highlighted by the finding of high genetic diversity throughout the transition to resistance, population numbers that remained high over time, and no evidence of departures from neutrality in the allele frequency spectra throughout the transition. The direct temporal analysis documented the persistence, antibiotic status, and haplotypic identity of strains undergoing apparent clonal expansions. Several haplotypes that were beta-lactamase nonproducers in early samples converted to producers in later years. Maintenance of genetic diversity and haplotype conversions from sensitive to resistant supported the hypothesis that penicillin resistance determinants spread to a diverse array of strains via horizontal exchange. Genetic differentiation between sample years, estimated by F(ST), was increasing at a rate that could cause complete haplotype turnover in less than 150 years. Widespread linkage disequilibrium among sites within one locus (copB) suggested recent mutation followed by clonal expansion. Nonrandom associations between haplotypes and resistance phenotypes provided further evidence of clonal expansion for some haplotypes. Nevertheless, the population structure was far from clonal as evidenced by a relatively low frequency of disequilibria both within sites at a second locus (M46) as well as between loci. The haplotype-antibiotic resistance association that was accompanied by gradual haplotype turnover is consistent with a hypothesis of genetic drift at marker loci with directional selection at the resistance locus.     

Declining population trends of European mountain birds

Mountain areas often hold special species communities, and they are high on the list of conservation concern. Global warming and changes in human land use, such as grazing pressure and afforestation, have been suggested to be major threats for biodiversity in the mountain areas, affecting species abundance and causing distribution shifts towards mountaintops. Population shifts towards poles and mountaintops have been documented in several areas, indicating that climate change is one of the key drivers of species’ distribution changes. Despite the high conservation concern, relatively little is known about the population trends of species in mountain areas due to low accessibility and difficult working conditions. Thanks to the recent improvement of bird monitoring schemes around Europe, we can here report a first account of population trends of 44 bird species from four major European mountain regions: Fennoscandia, UK upland, south‐western (Iberia) and south‐central mountains (Alps), covering 12 countries. Overall, the mountain bird species declined significantly (?7%) during 2002–2014, which is similar to the declining rate in common birds in Europe during the same period. Mountain specialists showed a significant ?10% decline in population numbers. The slope for mountain generalists was also negative, but not significantly so. The slopes of specialists and generalists did not differ from each other. Fennoscandian and Iberian populations were on average declining, while in United Kingdom and Alps, trends were nonsignificant. Temperature change or migratory behaviour was not significantly associated with regional population trends of species. Alpine habitats are highly vulnerable to climate change, and this is certainly one of the main drivers of mountain bird population trends. However, observed declines can also be partly linked with local land use practices. More efforts should be undertaken to identify the causes of decline and to increase conservation efforts for these populations.     

Metapopulation structure,population trends,and status of Florida Grasshopper Sparrows

ABSTRACT The federally Endangered Florida Grasshopper Sparrow (FGSP, Ammodramus savannarum floridanus) is endemic to dry prairie habitat in central Florida and is currently only found at three public management areas (Avon Park Air Force Range, APAFR; Kissimmee Prairie Preserve State Park, KPPSP; and Three Lakes Wildlife Management Area, TLWMA). We analyzed long‐term (1991–2008) point‐count data to compare population trends of FGSPs at these management areas to determine if they function as independent populations by using Spearman's rank correlation to test for independence between annual trends. We also examined banding and resighting data to infer metapopulation structure. Populations fluctuated across years at all three sites, declining significantly at APAFR (r_s=?0.89, P < 0.001, N= 13) and KPPSP (r_s=?0.78, P= 0.004, N= 11) and remaining stable at TLWMA (r_s= 0.19, P= 0.46, N= 17). Population trends among the three management areas appeared independent (absolute value of r_s≤ 0.50, P≥ 0.12). Previous studies indicated that sparrows in the three areas were not genetically differentiated, and two cases of dispersal between APAFR and KPPSP have been documented. However, dispersal rates among areas appear to be too low to influence demographic dynamics within individual areas. Within APAFR, FGSPs are aggregated into three spatially distinct habitat patches previously considered separate populations, but dispersal among these patches is more frequent than previously reported and population trends among these patches are correlated (r_s≥ 0.91, P < 0.001). These patterns suggest that a single metapopulation of FGSPs exists consisting of three distinct populations (APAFR, KPPSP, and TLWMA), and the spatially distinct aggregations at APAFR constitute a single population using several habitat patches. The population at APAFR is at risk of extirpation, and immediate action is needed if that population is to recover. Taking broader metapopulation dynamics into account will be useful for guiding management efforts aimed at conserving the FGSP in the broader central Florida landscape.     

Decomposing trends in bird populations: Climate,life histories and habitat affect different aspects of population change

Aim

Despite the complexity of population dynamics, most studies concerning current changes in bird populations reduce the trajectory of population change to a linear trend. This may hide more complex patterns reflecting responses of bird populations to changing anthropogenic pressures. Here, we address this complexity by means of multivariate analysis and attribute different components of bird population dynamics to different potential drivers.

Location

Czech Republic.

Methods

We used data on population trajectories (1982–2019) of 111 common breeding bird species, decomposed them into independent components by means of the principal component analysis (PCA), and related these components to multiple potential drivers comprising climate, land use change and species' life histories.

Results

The first two ordination axes explained substantial proportion of variability of population dynamics (42.0 and 12.5% of variation in PC1 and PC2 respectively). The first axis captured linear population trend. Species with increasing populations were characterized mostly by long lifespan and warmer climatic niches. The effect of habitat was less pronounced but still significant, with negative trends being typical for farmland birds, while positive trends characterized birds of deciduous forests. The second axis captured the contrast between hump-shaped and U-shaped population trajectories and was even more strongly associated with species traits. Species migrating longer distances and species with narrower temperature niches revealed hump-shaped population trends, so that their populations mostly increased before 2000 and then declined. These patterns are supported by the trends of total abundances of respective ecological groups.

Main Conclusion

Although habitat transformation apparently drives population trajectories in some species groups, climate change and associated species traits represent crucial drivers of complex population dynamics of central European birds. Decomposing population dynamics into separate components brings unique insights into non-trivial patterns of population change and their drivers, and may potentially indicate changes in the regime of anthropogenic effects on biodiversity.