Regression Techniques for Examining Land Use/Cover Change: A Case Study of a Mediterranean Landscape

In many areas of the northern Mediterranean Basin the abundance of forest and scrubland vegetation is increasing, commensurate with decreases in agricultural land use(s). Much of the land use/cover change (LUCC) in this region is associated with the marginalization of traditional agricultural practices due to ongoing socioeconomic shifts and subsequent ecological change. Regression-based models of LUCC have two purposes: (i) to aid explanation of the processes driving change and/or (ii) spatial projection of the changes themselves. The independent variables contained in the single ‘best’ regression model (that is, that which minimizes variation in the dependent variable) cannot be inferred as providing the strongest causal relationship with the dependent variable. Here, we examine the utility of hierarchical partitioning and multinomial regression models for, respectively, explanation and prediction of LUCC in EU Special Protection Area 56, ‘Encinares del río Alberche y Cofio’ (SPA 56) near Madrid, Spain. Hierarchical partitioning estimates the contribution of regression model variables, both independently and in conjunction with other variables in a model, to the total variance explained by that model and is a tool to isolate important causal variables. By using hierarchical partitioning we find that the combined effects of factors driving land cover transitions varies with land cover classification, with a coarser classification reducing explained variance in LUCC. We use multinomial logistic regression models solely for projecting change, finding that accuracies of maps produced vary by land cover classification and are influenced by differing spatial resolutions of socioeconomic and biophysical data. When examining LUCC in human-dominated landscapes such as those of the Mediterranean Basin, the availability and analysis of spatial data at scales that match causal processes is vital to the performance of the statistical modelling techniques used here.     

A review of influences of land use and land cover change on ecosystems

随着人口的增长和人类社会的发展, 土地利用与土地覆盖变化已经是不可避免。土地利用与土地覆盖变化不仅对生态系统的要素、结构和功能产生深远的影响, 也会对全球变化产生反馈作用。针对土地利用与土地覆盖变化的过程、驱动机制以及在各个方面可能产生的生态环境效应的科学研究已经全面开展。该文综述了土地利用与土地覆盖变化对气候、土壤、生物地球化学循环、生物多样性以及区域生态环境等影响方面的研究进展, 并提出了相关研究的前沿方向展望。随着新技术的不断发展, 学者们将更多地侧重预测未来全球变化背景下的土地利用与土地覆盖变化趋势、合理性以及适应性, 为可持续发展提供基础资料和理论依据。     

土地利用与土地覆盖变化对生态系统的影响

随着人口的增长和人类社会的发展, 土地利用与土地覆盖变化已经是不可避免。土地利用与土地覆盖变化不仅对生态系统的要素、结构和功能产生深远的影响, 也会对全球变化产生反馈作用。针对土地利用与土地覆盖变化的过程、驱动机制以及在各个方面可能产生的生态环境效应的科学研究已经全面开展。该文综述了土地利用与土地覆盖变化对气候、土壤、生物地球化学循环、生物多样性以及区域生态环境等影响方面的研究进展, 并提出了相关研究的前沿方向展望。随着新技术的不断发展, 学者们将更多地侧重预测未来全球变化背景下的土地利用与土地覆盖变化趋势、合理性以及适应性, 为可持续发展提供基础资料和理论依据。     

Contemporary landscape burning patterns in the far North Kimberley region of north-west Australia: human influences and environmental determinants

Aim This study of contemporary landscape burning patterns in the North Kimberley aims to determine the relative influences of environmental factors and compare the management regimes occurring on Aboriginal lands, pastoral leases, national park and crown land. Location The study area is defined at the largest scale by Landsat Scene 108–70 that covers a total land area of 23,134 km² in the North Kimberley Bioregion of north‐west Australia, including the settlement of Kalumburu, coastline between Vansittart Bay in the west and the mouth of the Berkeley River in the east, and stretching approximately 200 km inland. Methods Two approaches are applied. First, a 10‐year fire history (1990–1999) derived from previous study of satellite (Landsat‐MSS) remote sensing imagery is analysed for broad regional patterns. And secondly, a 2‐year ground‐based survey of burning along major access roads leading to an Aboriginal community is used to show fine‐scale burning patterns. anova and multiple regression analyses are used to determine the influence of year, season, geology, tenure, distance from road and distance from settlement on fire patterns. Results Satellite data indicated that an average of 30.8% (±4.4% SEM) of the study area was burnt each year with considerable variability between years. Approximately 56% of the study area was burnt on three or more occasions over the 10‐year period. A slightly higher proportion of burning occurred on average in the late dry season (17.2 ± 3.6%), compared with the early dry season (13.6 ± 3.3%). The highest fire frequency occurred on basalt substrates, on pastoral tenures, and at distances 5–25 km from roads. Three‐way anova demonstrated that geological substrate and land use were the most significant factors influencing fire history, however a range of smaller interactions were also significant. Analysis of road transects, originating from an Aboriginal settlement, showed that the timing of fire and geology type were the most significant factors affecting the pattern of area burnt. Of the total transect area, 28.3 ± 2.9% was burnt annually with peaks in burning occurring into the dry season months of June, August and September. Basalt uplands (81.2%) and lowlands (30.1%) had greater areas burnt than sandstone (12.3%) and sands (17.7%). Main conclusions Anthropogenic firing is constrained by two major environmental determinants; climate and substrate. Seasonal peaks in burning activity in both the early and late dry season relate to periods of optimal fire‐weather conditions. Substrate factors (geology, soils and physiognomy) influence vegetation‐fuel characteristics and the movement of fire in the landscape. Basalt hills overwhelmingly supported the most frequent wildfire regime in the study region because of their undulating topography and relatively fertile soils that support perennial grasslands. Within these spatial and temporal constraints people significantly influenced the frequency and extent of fire in the North Kimberley thus tenure type and associated land uses had a significant influence on fire patterning. Burning activity is high on pastoral lands and along roads and tracks on some tenure types. While the state government uses aerial control burning and legislation to try to restrict burning to the early dry season across all geology types, in practice burning is being conducted across the full duration of the dry season with early dry season burning focused on sandstone and sand substrates and late dry season burning focused on basalt substrates. There is greater seasonal and spatial variation in burning patterns on landscapes managed by Aboriginal people.     

陕北小流域退耕农户剖面特征的土地利用决策响应

采用基于GIS的空间分析、数理统计(Mathematical Statistics)与Multi-logistic回归模型相结合的方法(GMM),探讨退耕前后陕北燕沟流域土地利用及其关键的社会经济驱动因素的变化,揭示农村劳动力转移在土地利用决策中的重要性,了解农村土地利用变化的驱动机制。结果表明:(1)1990—2013年,流域土地利用变化特征总体上与延安市的土地利用变化趋势一致,即坡耕地减少和林草地增加显著;(2)1990—2001年,农业劳动力转移对农户土地利用决策的影响不明显,农户家庭基本特征与资源禀赋等对农户土地利用决策的影响显著。2001—2013年,劳动力转移和交通条件对农户土地利用决策有显著影响,退耕还林政策对农村劳动力的再分配产生了较大影响。     

A Multilevel Analysis of the Impact of Land Use on Interannual Land-Cover Change in East Africa

Abstract The aim of this study was to characterize the short-term land-cover change processes that were detected in Eastern Africa, based on a set of change metrics that allow for the quantification of interannual changes in vegetation productivity, changes in vegetation phenology and a combination of both. We tested to what extent land use, fire activity and livestock grazing modified the vegetation response to short-term rainfall variability in East Africa and how this is reflected in change metrics derived from MODerate Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) time series of remote sensing data. We used a hierarchical approach to disentangle the contribution of human activities and climate variability to the patterns of short-term vegetation change in East Africa at different levels of organization. Our results clearly show that land use significantly influences the vegetation response to rainfall variability as measured by time series of MODIS data. Areas with different types of land use react in a different way to interannual climate variability, leading to different values of the change indices depending on the land use type. The impact of land use is more reflected in interannual variability of vegetation productivity and overall change in the vegetation, whereas changes in phenology are mainly driven by climate variability and affect most vegetation types in similar ways. Our multilevel approach led to improved models and clearly demonstrated that climate influence plays at a different scale than land use, fire and herbivore grazing. It helped us to understand dynamics within and between biomes in the study area and investigate the relative importance of different factors influencing short-term variability in change indices at different scales.     

Agent农业土地变化模型研究进展

农业土地变化是全球变化与可持续研究的热点,当前研究虽取得了长足进展,但仍存在诸多不足,集中表现在对农业土地系统复杂性与动态性的认识不够.近年来,基于Agent的农业土地变化研究(农业ABM/LUCC,Agent-based agricultural land change modeling)逐渐兴起,极大的丰富了传统研究的理论与方法,具体表现在:(1)农业ABM/LUCC将微观层面的人类个体行为整合进土地变化研究框架,有助于更加清楚的认识农业土地系统的“人类-自然”综合复杂性问题.(2)农业ABM/LUCC能够动态表达土地系统变化的内生反馈机制,有助于弥补传统的静态土地变化驱动机制分析的不足.(3)基于ABM/LUCC的农业土地利用格局动态研究是整合“人类-自然”综合研究的关键桥梁,农业ABM/LUCC能够与其他生物地球物理模型或经济模型动态嵌套,使多尺度、多维度综合模型研究成为可能.然而,农业ABM/LUCC研究也存在诸多挑战,如理论研究滞后于应用研究,大尺度应用难以开展,以及农户行为的模拟结果很难得到校验等.     

Settler agriculture and the dynamics of resource allocation in frontier environments

This article attempts to conceptualize the dynamics of resource allocation by colonist farmers under the unique conditions of land abundance and labor scarcity which characterize frontier environments, such as the smallholder agricultural settlement areas in the Amazon basin. In contrast, most previous theoretical literature on household agricultural decision making and land-use change in rural areas considers conditions of high population density and land scarcity, and is not, therefore, adequate for understanding critical land-use changes which may be occurring in frontier regions. This article first discusses the appropriateness and inadequacies of the analytical frameworks commonly used to explain the expansion of settler agriculture into remote forest regions and the unsustainable land-use practices observed in these areas. This review serves as the basis for characterizing resource allocation under the particular conditions of frontier environments. A conceptual advance in the analysis is its consideration of the way institutional/policy factors and farm-level characteristics can interact to produce land-use outcomes. This knowledge is essential to understand not only the social and economic factors affecting present land use and choice of technology, but also those factors influencing farmers' demand for more optimal systems of land use which are consistent with varying agro-ecological potentials, demographic situations, and their own management capacity.     

Wood warblers copy settlement decisions of poor quality conspecifics: support for the tradeoff between the benefit of social information use and competition avoidance

Social information use in songbird habitat selection commonly involves a conspecific attraction strategy. Individuals copy the breeding‐site choices of conspecifics, that is, bias their own settlement decisions towards sites (tracts of spatially limited habitat with similar structure) already occupied by others. In order to be adaptive, social information use has to be discriminative. Especially the decisions of good quality individuals, i.e. measuring high at observable fitness correlates, should be copied more frequently than those of poor quality individuals. It is unknown, however, whether songbirds discriminatively use conspecific presence by evaluating the quality of information providers in habitat selection. We experimentally tested whether wood warblers Phylloscopus sibilatrix selectively copied settlement decisions of conspecifics in relation to the quality of observed individuals. We also tested whether the use of social cues was influenced by the population density at a particular site in the preceding year. We found that wood warblers selectively used intraspecific social information, but in a pattern opposite to that expected based on existing hypotheses. Wood warblers copied breeding‐site choices of poor quality conspecifics and despite temporary attraction to sites where the presence of good quality individuals was simulated, they did not ultimately settle near these individuals. Population density in the preceding year did not influence settlement patterns. We argue that when making settlement decisions, wood warblers assessed the expected level of local intraspecific competition and selectively copied breeding‐site choices of conspecifics or refused to settle, depending on competitive abilities of observed individuals. This adds a novel aspect to the patterns and processes of social information use proposed thus far, and provides support for the predicted negative effect of intraspecific competition on benefit of information. Moreover, it seems that habitat selection in wood warblers is a complex decision‐making process, in which initial decisions are adjusted after acquiring more accurate information. Synthesis Social information use in songbird habitat selection commonly involves copying the breeding‐site choices of conspecifics (so‐called conspecific attraction). To be adaptive, this strategy has to be discriminative, but almost no empirical studies have tested this assertion. Our study shows that birds may selectively use social information by copying settlement decisions of poor quality conspecifics, but avoid settling near good quality individuals, likely because of their high competitive abilities. This decision‐making pattern supports the predicted, yet not experimentally tested, tradeoff between information value and cost of competition in social information use. Our study highlights also that the use of social cues in settlement decisions may be both positively and negatively biased.     

1975—2015年玛纳斯河流域土地利用变化的地学信息图谱分析

地学信息图谱分析可利用图形语言将复杂的地理现象进行简洁的表达,对开展多时空尺度土地利用变化空间格局与时间过程的集成研究具有重要意义.本研究以新疆玛纳斯河流域为例,基于7期遥感数据(1975、1990、1995、2000、2005、2010和2015年)构建土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)图谱体系,定量分析流域LUCC过程及趋势.结果表明:1975—2015年,流域土地利用变化幅度逐渐减弱,土地利用结构由复杂趋向单一,后期趋于稳定.1975—1990年,流域内草地涨势最强,主要来源于未利用土地的转入.1990—2015年,耕地增幅最大,主要由未利用土地、林草地转换而来.土地利用变化模式图谱显示,前期变化型、后期变化型及持续变化型仅占流域面积的1.3%,图谱单元总体变化以未利用土地转向耕地、草地和水域占主导,土地利用变化过程较为稳定.土地利用变化频率图谱的稳定不变区域覆盖流域面积的61.2%,土地利用空间格局相对稳定.土地利用转变最频繁的方式为耕地的持续扩张,以沙湾县柳毛湾镇和玛纳斯县六户地镇为左右中心,呈“摊饼式”向两侧扩张,延伸至古尔班通古特沙漠.通过构建土地利用时空变化图谱,丰富了LUCC时空分析方法体系,为今后开展多时空尺度下的LUCC研究提供了有效手段.     

Land-use changes assessed by overlay or mosaic methods: Which method is best for management planning?

Environmental planning must determine management practices for a given territory based on the landscape processes that have occurred over time and their consequences. Therefore, environmental planning decisions must be based on strong empirical evidence that can be easily understood by all involved parties. Several studies have highlighted the methodological deficiencies that occur when obtaining and interpreting such issues, particularly in heterogeneous landscapes with complex interactions. In this paper, we evaluated two methodological approaches that are used in management planning, land use/cover change (LUCC) and mosaic change (MC) to compare their effectiveness and suitability for supporting decision-making. We applied these methods to the coastal landscape of São Sebastião Island, Brazil, which has undergone many changes in the last 50 years. For two years, land use/cover maps were produced using GIS and assessed according to changes in landscape elements (LUCC) and boundaries (MC). Overall, the LUCC failed to identify sets with similar structural heterogeneities in the landscape. However, the LUCC is easier for stakeholders to understand and apply than the MC. The MC method better presented the evolution of the relationship between the landscape elements and heterogeneity.     

Three centuries of fire in montane pine‐oak stands on a temperate forest landscape

Question: What was the role of fire in montane pine‐oak (Pinus‐Quercus) stands under changing human land uses on a temperate forest landscape in eastern North America? Location: Mill Mountain in the central Appalachian Mountains, Virginia, US. Methods: A dendroecological reconstruction of fire history was generated for four stands dominated by xerophytic pine and oak species. The fire chronology began under presettlement conditions following aboriginal depopulation. Subsequent land uses included European settlement, iron mining, logging, and US Forest Service acquisition and fire protection. Results: Fires occurred approximately every 5 years until 1930 without any evidence of a temporal trend in fire frequency. Burning ceased after 1930. Area‐wide fires affecting multiple pine stands were common, occurring at intervals of approximately 16 years. Most living pines became established during the late 1800s and early 1900s. Dead pines indicated that an older cohort established ca. 1730. Most hardwoods were established between the 1920s and 1940s. Conclusions: Except for fire protection, changes in land use had no discernible influence on fire frequency. Lightning ignitions and/or large fire extent may have been important for maintaining frequent burning in the 1700s, while fuel recovery may have constrained fire frequency during later periods. The disturbance regime appears to be characterized by frequent surface fires and occasional severe fires, insect outbreaks or other disturbances followed by pine recruitment episodes. Industrial disturbances appear to have had little influence on the pine stands. The greatest impact of industrial society is fire exclusion, which permitted hardwood establishment.     

First Approximations of Prescribed Fire Risks Relative to Other Management Techniques Used on Private Lands

Fire is widely recognized as a critical ecological and evolutionary driver that needs to be at the forefront of land management actions if conservation targets are to be met. However, the prevailing view is that prescribed fire is riskier than other land management techniques. Perceived risks associated with the application of fire limits its use and reduces agency support for prescribed burning in the private sector. As a result, considerably less cost-share support is given for prescribed fire compared to mechanical techniques. This study tests the general perception that fire is a riskier technique relative to other land management options. Due to the lack of data available to directly test this notion, we use a combination of approaches including 1) a comparison of fatalities resulting from different occupations that are proxies for techniques employed in land management, 2) a comparison of fatalities resulting from wildland fire versus prescribed fire, and 3) an exploration of causal factors responsible for wildland fire-related fatalities. This approach establishes a first approximation of the relative risk of fatality to private citizens using prescribed fire compared to other management techniques that are readily used in ecosystem management. Our data do not support using risks of landowner fatalities as justification for the use of alternative land management techniques, such as mechanical (machine-related) equipment, over prescribed fire. Vehicles and heavy machinery are consistently leading reasons for fatalities within occupations selected as proxies for management techniques employed by ranchers and agricultural producers, and also constitute a large proportion of fatalities among firefighters. Our study provides the foundation for agencies to establish data-driven decisions regarding the degree of support they provide for prescribed burning on private lands.     

Critical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States

Large‐scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine‐scale processes including land use and land cover change into a large‐scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the terrestrial C budget of the conterminous United States from 1971 to 2015 at 1‐km resolution using an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model and comprehensive land cover change data. Effects of atmospheric CO₂ fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate, wildland fire, harvest, and land use/land cover change (LUCC) were considered. We estimate annual C losses from cropland harvest, forest clearcut and thinning, fire, and LUCC were 436.8, 117.9, 10.5, and 10.4 TgC/year, respectively. C stored in ecosystems increased from 119,494 to 127,157 TgC between 1971 and 2015, indicating a mean annual net C sink of 170.3 TgC/year. Although ecosystem net primary production increased by approximately 12.3 TgC/year, most of it was offset by increased C loss from harvest and natural disturbance and increased ecosystem respiration related to forest aging. As a result, the strength of the overall ecosystem C sink did not increase over time. Our modeled results indicate the conterminous US C sink was about 30% smaller than previous modeling studies, but converged more closely with inventory data.     

黄河三角洲自然保护区1992～2010年土地覆被变化分析

基于黄河三角洲自然保护区1992年、2000年和2010年三期遥感图像,分析近20年黄河三角洲自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)情况。结果表明,在1992～2010年间,黄河三角洲自然保护区内同种土地覆被类型的空间分布较一致,均以海域、滩涂和旱地为主,但同种土地覆盖类型的比重均发生不同程度的变化。总体上,旱地、河渠、水库、居民地和其他用地类型的变化程度不明显,但年际间有波动变化;草地面积虽持续减少,但总体变化不明显;灌木面积总体变化也不明显,但年际间波动较大;芦苇面积呈减少趋势,尤其是1992～2000年间,大量芦苇覆被地转化为旱地类型;养殖塘面积增加明显,近20年间增加约6.24×103 hm2,主要由滩涂、柽柳、碱蓬等开发形成;海域面积变化剧烈,海域转化为滩涂是造成海域面积减少的主要原因。黄河三角洲自然保护区LUCC改变了自然保护区的生态系统结构,降低了自然保护区的生态服务功能。造成黄河三角洲LUCC的原因既有自然因素,也有人为因素,但在该区LUCC的驱动力主要为人类活动。     

土地利用/覆盖变化对陆地生态系统碳循环的影响

土地利用/覆盖变化是学术界最为关注的环境变化问题之一,它能够影响陆地生态系统的生物多样性、水、碳和养分循环、能量平衡,引起温室气体释放增加等其它环境问题。不同类型的土地利用/覆盖变化对生态系统碳循环的作用不同,由高生物量的森林转化为低生物量的草地、农田或城市后,大量的CO₂将释放到大气中。全球土地利用/覆盖变化具有很强的空间变异性,对生态系统碳循环的影响同样具有明显的空间差异:热带地区的土地利用/覆盖变化造成大量的碳释放,而中高纬度地区土地利用/覆盖变化则表现为碳汇。目前,土地利用/覆盖变化引起的生态系统碳循环变化主要是通过模型模拟来估算的。尽管土地利用/覆盖变化及其相关过程与生态系统碳循环的关系已经比较清楚,但是,由于土地利用/覆盖变化过程复杂且影响广泛,对于如何量化两者之间的关系还存在很多不确定性。目前的量化过程主要是利用经验数据来实现的,机理性不强,使得对土地利用/覆盖变化造成的陆地生态系统CO₂释放量的估测差异很大。除了进一步加强长期定位研究以获得土地利用/覆盖变化与生态系统碳循环过程的定量关系外,土地利用/覆盖变化模型与植被动态模型、生态系统过程模型的耦合也是今后模型发展的主要方向之一。采用合理的管理措施能够大量增加土地利用/覆盖变化过程中的碳储存量,降低碳释放量,因此在模型中耦合管理措施来研究土地利用/覆盖变化过程对生态系统碳循环的影响是未来几年的工作重点。     

大气颗粒物污染对土地覆盖变化的响应

土地利用-覆盖变化(LUCC)直接或间接影响颗粒物污染。了解颗粒物污染对LUCC的响应,对维护和改善生态环境具有重要的意义。基于卫星遥感技术,从广域的空间尺度分析颗粒物污染对LUCC的响应。使用MODIS数据分别提取与颗粒物污染相关性较高的城市用地、林地等土地利用类型,确定土地利用类型的变化趋势,利用长时间序列MODIS气溶胶光学厚度(AOD,Aerosol optical depth)产品分析颗粒物污染与土地利用类型的变化的相关性。以山东省青岛市、淄博市、济南市3个典型城市为例,研究了AOD随土地利用类型的变化趋势。同时,考虑并分析了颗粒物污染对土地利用变化响应的敏感性,以及城市区域变化对环境的影响。研究结果表明,不同的城市类型,由于决定环境变化主导因素的差异,颗粒物污染对LUCC的响应具有明显的差异。青岛市地区,由于受海洋影响显著,大气颗粒物污染与LUCC的相关性较低,如中度污染天气与林地的相关系数为-0.451;而淄博市和济南市的相关系数分别为-0.473、-0.507。     

Implications of Fire Policy on Native Land Use in the Yukon Flats, Alaska

Through a process of participatory mapping, this research assessed the impacts of the 1984 change in Alaska fire policy from one of exclusion to one of management on Native land use in the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge. Findings suggest that while the change in policy has had little measurable effect on community land use the continued suppression of fire on Native owned lands is having a direct impact on the current availability of wildlife resources to the point of necessitating territorial expansion among Native resource users. However, given the complexity of human nature, the impacts associated with the 1984 policy change should not be reduced to a simplistic cause-and-effect relationship. Rather this analysis demonstrates the interaction as well as the contradiction that occur between policy, culture, and ecology as these factors together have come to influence Native land use.     

Assessment of Land Use Impacts on the Natural Environment. Part 1: An Analytical Framework for Pure Land Occupation and Land Use Change (8 pp)

- Part 1: An analytical framework for pure land occupation and land use change Part 2: Generic characterization factors for local species diversity in Central Europe - Preamble. This series of two papers is based on a PhD thesis (Koellner 2003) and develops a method on how to assess land use impacts on biodiversity in the framework of LCA. Part 1 further expands the analytical framework of the thesis for pure land occupation and land use change. Part 2 rests on a much richer database compared to the thesis in order to quantify generic characterization factors for local species' richness. - Abstract Goal, Scope and Background. In the framework of LCA, land use is broadly accepted as an impact category. However, the methodology for the assessment of damages on the natural environment was and still is the subject of discussion. The main objective of this paper is to contribute to that discussion by providing a consistent methodological framework for the assessment of land occupation and transformation. Methods We clarify the context of LCA relevant land use decisions. Based on that, we develop a formal model with damage functions and generic characterization factors for quantifying damages on ecosystems from land occupation and land transformation. The characterization factor for land occupation and land use change is labeled Ecosystem Damage Potential (EDP). We analytically address the substitutability of area and time occupied in order to produce a constant output. Results Based on the proposed method, it is possible to calculate the damages from complex series of land transformation, land occupation, and land restoration. A main feature of the method is that land transformation is assessed based on a factual or virtual, restoration time. This means that the damage of land transformation is largest for land use types which are difficult to restore and need extremely long to develop (e.g. thousand of years and more for primary forest and peatbog). In addition, we could show that area and time of occupation are not substitutable. The more severe the damage potential of a specific land use type is, the better it is to minimize the area and maximize the duration of occupation. Discussion An approach for the assessment of pure land occupation and land use change was developed in this paper, which is not geographically referenced. Developing geographically-referenced land use inventories and impact assessment methods can increase their accuracy. The information cost to provide geographically referenced data on land use for practical LCA applications, however, would increase enormously. Conclusions An impact assessment method for land use with generic characterization factors improves the basis for decision-making in industry and other organizations. It can best be applied to marginal land use decisions; that is, to decisions in which the consequences are so small that the quality or quantity of environmental parameters of a region is not noticeably altered. Recommendations and Perspective . One main problem to address is the development of reliable generic characterization factors, which express the ecosystem damage potential of specific land use types. The characterization factors should be developed on an empirical basis, which allow decision makers to get access to knowledge from environmental sciences in a very condensed form. In order to support decisions on distinct land use projects, methods should be developed, which allow accomplishing a generic assessment with site-dependent assessments.     

Fire management in Tasmania’s Wilderness World Heritage Area: Ecosystem restoration using Indigenous‐style fire regimes?

Summary In many natural areas, changes in fire regimes since European settlement have resulted in adverse impacts on elements of biological diversity that survived millennia of land management by Indigenous people. Some of the rainforest and alpine elements that depend on south‐west Tasmania’s World Heritage Area have been in decline since European settlement of Tasmania due to an increase in the incidence of landscape‐scale fires in the period 1850–1940. Some of the buttongrass moorland elements that also depend on the region are in decline or impending decline because of a decreased incidence and/or size of burns since 1940. Will an Indigenous‐style fire regime serve the interests of biological diversity? We examine this question in the context of the fire ecology and fire history of south‐west Tasmania. From this assessment we argue that a return to Indigenous‐ style burning, modified to address contemporary issues such as the prevention of unplanned ignition, suppression of wildfires and burning to favour rare and threatened species may help to reverse trends towards ecosystem degradation in this region.