How traits shape trees: new approaches for detecting character state‐dependent lineage diversification

Biologists have long sought to understand the processes underlying disparities in clade size across the tree of life and the extent to which such clade size differences can be attributed to the evolution of particular traits. The association of certain character states with species‐rich clades suggests that trait evolution can lead to increased diversification, but such a pattern could also arise due other processes, such as directional trait evolution. Recent advances in phylogenetic comparative methods have provided new statistical approaches for distinguishing between these intertwined and potentially confounded macroevolutionary processes. Here, we review the historical development of methods for detecting state‐dependent diversification and explore what new methods have revealed about classic examples of traits that affect diversification, including evolutionary dead ends, key innovations and geographic traits. Applications of these methods thus far collectively suggest that trait diversity commonly arises through the complex interplay between transition, speciation and extinction rates and that long hypothesized evolutionary dead ends and key innovations are instead often cases of directional trends in trait evolution.     

Species selection and random drift in macroevolution

Species selection resulting from trait‐dependent speciation and extinction is increasingly recognized as an important mechanism of phenotypic macroevolution. However, the recent bloom in statistical methods quantifying this process faces a scarcity of dynamical theory for their interpretation, notably regarding the relative contributions of deterministic versus stochastic evolutionary forces. I use simple diffusion approximations of birth‐death processes to investigate how the expected and random components of macroevolutionary change depend on phenotype‐dependent speciation and extinction rates, as can be estimated empirically. I show that the species selection coefficient for a binary trait, and selection differential for a quantitative trait, depend not only on differences in net diversification rates (speciation minus extinction), but also on differences in species turnover rates (speciation plus extinction), especially in small clades. The randomness in speciation and extinction events also produces a species‐level equivalent to random genetic drift, which is stronger for higher turnover rates. I then show how microevolutionary processes including mutation, organismic selection, and random genetic drift cause state transitions at the species level, allowing comparison of evolutionary forces across levels. A key parameter that would be needed to apply this theory is the distribution and rate of origination of new optimum phenotypes along a phylogeny.     

Quantitative traits and diversification

Quantitative traits have long been hypothesized to affect speciation and extinction rates. For example, smaller body size or increased specialization may be associated with increased rates of diversification. Here, I present a phylogenetic likelihood-based method (quantitative state speciation and extinction [QuaSSE]) that can be used to test such hypotheses using extant character distributions. This approach assumes that diversification follows a birth-death process where speciation and extinction rates may vary with one or more traits that evolve under a diffusion model. Speciation and extinction rates may be arbitrary functions of the character state, allowing much flexibility in testing models of trait-dependent diversification. I test the approach using simulated phylogenies and show that a known relationship between speciation and a quantitative character could be recovered in up to 80% of the cases on large trees (500 species). Consistent with other approaches, detecting shifts in diversification due to differences in extinction rates was harder than when due to differences in speciation rates. Finally, I demonstrate the application of QuaSSE to investigate the correlation between body size and diversification in primates, concluding that clade-specific differences in diversification may be more important than size-dependent diversification in shaping the patterns of diversity within this group.     

DO FRESHWATER FISHES DIVERSIFY FASTER THAN MARINE FISHES? A TEST USING STATE‐DEPENDENT DIVERSIFICATION ANALYSES AND MOLECULAR PHYLOGENETICS OF NEW WORLD SILVERSIDES (ATHERINOPSIDAE)

Freshwater habitats make up only ～0.01% of available aquatic habitat and yet harbor 40% of all fish species, whereas marine habitats comprise >99% of available aquatic habitat and have only 60% of fish species. One possible explanation for this pattern is that diversification rates are higher in freshwater habitats than in marine habitats. We investigated diversification in marine and freshwater lineages in the New World silverside fish clade Menidiinae (Teleostei, Atherinopsidae). Using a time‐calibrated phylogeny and a state‐dependent speciation–extinction framework, we determined the frequency and timing of habitat transitions in Menidiinae and tested for differences in diversification parameters between marine and freshwater lineages. We found that Menidiinae is an ancestrally marine lineage that independently colonized freshwater habitats four times followed by three reversals to the marine environment. Our state‐dependent diversification analyses showed that freshwater lineages have higher speciation and extinction rates than marine lineages. Net diversification rates were higher (but not significant) in freshwater than marine environments. The marine lineage‐through time (LTT) plot shows constant accumulation, suggesting that ecological limits to clade growth have not slowed diversification in marine lineages. Freshwater lineages exhibited an upturn near the recent in their LTT plot, which is consistent with our estimates of high background extinction rates. All sequence data are currently being archived on Genbank and phylogenetic trees archived on Treebase.     

Estimating a binary character's effect on speciation and extinction

Determining whether speciation and extinction rates depend on the state of a particular character has been of long-standing interest to evolutionary biologists. To assess the effect of a character on diversification rates using likelihood methods requires that we be able to calculate the probability that a group of extant species would have evolved as observed, given a particular model of the character's effect. Here we describe how to calculate this probability for a phylogenetic tree and a two-state (binary) character under a simple model of evolution (the "BiSSE" model, binary-state speciation and extinction). The model involves six parameters, specifying two speciation rates (rate when the lineage is in state 0; rate when in state 1), two extinction rates (when in state 0; when in state 1), and two rates of character state change (from 0 to 1, and from 1 to 0). Using these probability calculations, we can do maximum likelihood inference to estimate the model's parameters and perform hypothesis tests (e.g., is the rate of speciation elevated for one character state over the other?). We demonstrate the application of the method using simulated data with known parameter values.     

Linking the investigations of character evolution and species diversification

Variation in diversification rates is often studied by investigating traits related to species' ecology and life history. Often, however, it is unknown whether these traits evolve gradually or in punctuated bursts during speciation. Using phylogenetic data and species' present-day trait information, we present a novel approach to assessing the mode of character change while accounting for trait-dependent speciation and extinction. Our model, "Binary-State Speciation and Extinction-node enhanced state shift" (BiSSE-ness), estimates both the rate of change occurring along lineages and the probability of change occurring during speciation, as well as independent speciation and extinction rates for each character state. Using simulations, we found that BiSSE-ness is able to distinguish along-lineage and speciational change and accurately estimate the parameters associated with character change and diversification rates. We applied BiSSE-ness to an empirical primate data set and found evidence for along-lineage changes in primate mating systems and social behaviors, whereas shifts in habitat were associated with speciation. In cases where trait changes may be linked to the speciation process itself (e.g., niche-related traits), BiSSE-ness provides a suitable framework with which to simultaneously address questions regarding species diversification and character change.     

Relating traits to diversification: a simple test

We describe a simple comparative method for determining whether rates of diversification are correlated with continuous traits in species-level phylogenies. This involves comparing traits of species with net speciation rate (number of nodes linking extant species with the root divided by the root to tip evolutionary distance), using a phylogenetically corrected correlation. We use simulations to examine the power of this test. We find that the approach has acceptable power to uncover relationships between speciation and a continuous trait and is robust to background random extinction; however, the power of the approach is reduced when the rate of trait evolution is decreased. The test has low power to relate diversification to traits when extinction rate is correlated with the trait. Clearly, there are inherent limitations in using only data on extant species to infer correlates of extinction; however, this approach is potentially a powerful tool in analyzing correlates of speciation.     

Larger brains spur species diversification in birds

Evidence is accumulating that species traits can spur their evolutionary diversification by influencing niche shifts, range expansions, and extinction risk. Previous work has shown that larger brains (relative to body size) facilitate niche shifts and range expansions by enhancing behavioral plasticity but whether larger brains also promote evolutionary diversification is currently backed by insufficient evidence. We addressed this gap by combining a brain size dataset for >1900 avian species worldwide with estimates of diversification rates based on two conceptually different phylogenetic‐based approaches. We found consistent evidence that lineages with larger brains (relative to body size) have diversified faster than lineages with relatively smaller brains. The best supported trait‐dependent model suggests that brain size primarily affects diversification rates by increasing speciation rather than decreasing extinction rates. In addition, we found that the effect of relatively brain size on species‐level diversification rate is additive to the effect of other intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Altogether, our results highlight the importance of brain size as an important factor in evolution and reinforce the view that intrinsic features of species have the potential to influence the pace of evolution.     

High speciation rate at temperate latitudes explains unusual diversity gradients in a clade of ectomycorrhizal fungi

Understanding the patterns of biodiversity through time and space is a challenging task. However, phylogeny‐based macroevolutionary models allow us to account and measure many of the processes responsible for diversity buildup, namely speciation and extinction. The general latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a well‐recognized pattern describing a decline in species richness from the equator polewards. Recent macroecological studies in ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi have shown that their LDG is shifted, peaking at temperate rather than tropical latitudes. Here we investigate this phenomenon from a macroevolutionary perspective, focusing on a well‐sampled group of edible EM mushrooms from the genus Amanita—the Caesar's mushrooms, which follow similar diversity patterns. Our approach consisted in applying a suite of models including (1) nontrait‐dependent time‐varying diversification (Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures [BAMM]), (2) continuous trait‐dependent diversification (quantitative‐state speciation and extinction [QuaSSE]), and (3) diversity‐dependent diversification. In short, results give strong support for high speciation rates at temperate latitudes (BAMM and QuaSSE). We also find some evidence for different diversity‐dependence thresholds in “temperate” and “tropical” subclades, and little differences in diversity due to extinction. We conclude that our analyses on the Caesar's mushrooms give further evidence of a temperate‐peaking LDG in EM fungi, highlighting the importance and the implications of macroevolutionary processes in explaining diversity gradients in microorganisms.     

The great American biotic interchange and diversification history in Dynastes beetles (Scarabaeidae; Dynastinae)

Biotic interchange between geographic regions can promote rapid diversification. However, what are the important factors that determine the rate of diversification (e.g., trait‐dependent diversification) vary between study systems. The evolutionary history of Dynastes beetles, which can be found in both North and South Americas and exhibit two different altitudinal preferences (highland and lowland) is tested for the effects of biotic interchange between continents and different ecological preferences on the rate of species diversification. Additionally, the hypotheses of geological time‐dependent and lineage specific diversification rates are also tested. Results from this study indicate that in Dynastes beetles a pre‐landbridge dispersal hypothesis from South to North America is preferred and that the speciation rates estimated using BAMM are similar between lineages of different geographic origins and different altitudinal preferences (i.e., diversification rate is not trait‐dependent). On the other hand, my result from marcoevolutionary cohort analysis based on BAMM outputs suggests that the rate of speciation in Dynastes beetles is, instead of trait‐dependent (geographic and ecological), lineage specific. Furthermore, a steadily increasing speciation rate can be found in Pliocene and Pleistocene, which implies that geological and climatic events, i.e., colonizing North America, habitat reformation in the Amazonia, and forest contraction in Pleistocene, may have together shaped the current biodiversity pattern in Dynastes beetles.     

Loss of sexual recombination and segregation is associated with increased diversification in evening primroses

The loss of sexual recombination and segregation in asexual organisms has been portrayed as an irreversible process that commits asexually reproducing lineages to reduced diversification. We test this hypothesis by estimating rates of speciation, extinction, and transition between sexuality and functional asexuality in the evening primroses. Specifically, we estimate these rates using the recently developed BiSSE (Binary State Speciation and Extinction) phylogenetic comparative method, which employs maximum likelihood and Bayesian techniques. We infer that net diversification rates (speciation minus extinction) in functionally asexual evening primrose lineages are roughly eight times faster than diversification rates in sexual lineages, largely due to higher speciation rates in asexual lineages. We further reject the hypothesis that a loss of recombination and segregation is irreversible because the transition rate from functional asexuality to sexuality is significantly greater than zero and in fact exceeded the reverse rate. These results provide the first empirical evidence in support of the alternative theoretical prediction that asexual populations should instead diversify more rapidly than sexual populations because they are free from the homogenizing effects of sexual recombination and segregation. Although asexual reproduction may often constrain adaptive evolution, our results show that the loss of recombination and segregation need not be an evolutionary dead end in terms of diversification of lineages.     

Testing macro-evolutionary models using incomplete molecular phylogenies.

Phylogenies reconstructed from gene sequences can be used to investigate the tempo and mode of species diversification. Here we develop and use new statistical methods to infer past patterns of speciation and extinction from molecular phylogenies. Specifically, we test the null hypothesis that per-lineage speciation and extinction rates have remained constant through time. Rejection of this hypothesis may provide evidence for evolutionary events such as adaptive radiations or key adaptations. In contrast to previous approaches, our methods are robust to incomplete taxon sampling and are conservative with respect to extinction. Using simulation we investigate, first, the adverse effects of failing to take incomplete sampling into account and, second, the power and reliability of our tests. When applied to published phylogenies our tests suggest that, in some cases, speciation rates have decreased through time.     

Rate heterogeneity across Squamata,misleading ancestral state reconstruction and the importance of proper null model specification

The binary‐state speciation and extinction (BiSSE) model has been used in many instances to identify state‐dependent diversification and reconstruct ancestral states. However, recent studies have shown that the standard procedure of comparing the fit of the BiSSE model to constant‐rate birth–death models often inappropriately favours the BiSSE model when diversification rates vary in a state‐independent fashion. The newly developed HiSSE model enables researchers to identify state‐dependent diversification rates while accounting for state‐independent diversification at the same time. The HiSSE model also allows researchers to test state‐dependent models against appropriate state‐independent null models that have the same number of parameters as the state‐dependent models being tested. We reanalyse two data sets that originally used BiSSE to reconstruct ancestral states within squamate reptiles and reached surprising conclusions regarding the evolution of toepads within Gekkota and viviparity across Squamata. We used this new method to demonstrate that there are many shifts in diversification rates across squamates. We then fit various HiSSE submodels and null models to the state and phylogenetic data and reconstructed states under these models. We found that there is no single, consistent signal for state‐dependent diversification associated with toepads in gekkotans or viviparity across all squamates. Our reconstructions show limited support for the recently proposed hypotheses that toepads evolved multiple times independently in Gekkota and that transitions from viviparity to oviparity are common in Squamata. Our results highlight the importance of considering an adequate pool of models and null models when estimating diversification rate parameters and reconstructing ancestral states.     

Digging their own macroevolutionary grave: fossoriality as an evolutionary dead end in snakes

The tree of life is highly asymmetrical in its clade wise species richness, and this has often been attributed to variation in diversification rates either across time or lineages. Variations across lineages are usually associated with traits that increase lineage diversification. Certain traits can also hinder diversification by increasing extinction, and such traits are called evolutionary dead ends. Ecological specialization has usually been considered as an evolutionary dead end. However, recent analyses of specializations along single axes have provided mixed support for this model. Here, we test if fossoriality, a trait that forces specialization at multiple axes, acts as an evolutionary dead end in squamates (lizards and snakes) using recently developed phylogenetic comparative methods. We show that fossoriality is an evolutionary dead end in snakes but not in lizards. Fossorial snakes exhibit reduced speciation and increased extinction compared to nonfossorial snakes. Our analysis also indicates that transition rates from fossoriality to nonfossoriality in snakes are significantly lower than transition rates from nonfossoriality to fossoriality. Overall our results suggest that broad‐scale ecological interactions that lead to specialization at multiple axes limit diversification.     

Robustness of the approximate likelihood of the protracted speciation model

The protracted speciation model presents a realistic and parsimonious explanation for the observed slowdown in lineage accumulation through time, by accounting for the fact that speciation takes time. A method to compute the likelihood for this model given a phylogeny is available and allows estimation of its parameters (rate of initiation of speciation, rate of completion of speciation and extinction rate) and statistical comparison of this model to other proposed models of diversification. However, this likelihood computation method makes an approximation of the protracted speciation model to be mathematically tractable: it sometimes counts fewer species than one would do from a biological perspective. This approximation may have large consequences for likelihood‐based inferences: it may render any conclusions based on this method completely irrelevant. Here, we study to what extent this approximation affects parameter estimations. We simulated phylogenies from which we reconstructed the tree of extant species according to the original, biologically meaningful protracted speciation model and according to the approximation. We then compared the resulting parameter estimates. We found that the differences were larger for high values of extinction rates and small values of speciation‐completion rates. Indeed, a long speciation‐completion time and a high extinction rate promote the appearance of cases to which the approximation applies. However, surprisingly, the deviation introduced is largely negligible over the parameter space explored, suggesting that this approximate likelihood can be applied reliably in practice to estimate biologically relevant parameters under the original protracted speciation model.     

Detecting local diversity‐dependence in diversification

Whether there are ecological limits to species diversification is a hotly debated topic. Molecular phylogenies show slowdowns in lineage accumulation, suggesting that speciation rates decline with increasing diversity. A maximum‐likelihood (ML) method to detect diversity‐dependent (DD) diversification from phylogenetic branching times exists, but it assumes that diversity‐dependence is a global phenomenon and therefore ignores that the underlying species interactions are mostly local, and not all species in the phylogeny co‐occur locally. Here, we explore whether this ML method based on the nonspatial diversity‐dependence model can detect local diversity‐dependence, by applying it to phylogenies, simulated with a spatial stochastic model of local DD speciation, extinction, and dispersal between two local communities. We find that type I errors (falsely detecting diversity‐dependence) are low, and the power to detect diversity‐dependence is high when dispersal rates are not too low. Interestingly, when dispersal is high the power to detect diversity‐dependence is even higher than in the nonspatial model. Moreover, estimates of intrinsic speciation rate, extinction rate, and ecological limit strongly depend on dispersal rate. We conclude that the nonspatial DD approach can be used to detect diversity‐dependence in clades of species that live in not too disconnected areas, but parameter estimates must be interpreted cautiously.     

QUANTIFYING VARIATION IN SPECIATION AND EXTINCTION RATES WITH CLADE DATA

High‐level phylogenies are very common in evolutionary analyses, although they are often treated as incomplete data. Here, we provide statistical tools to analyze what we name “clade data,” which are the ages of clades together with their numbers of species. We develop a general approach for the statistical modeling of variation in speciation and extinction rates, including temporal variation, unknown variation, and linear and nonlinear modeling. We show how this approach can be generalized to a wide range of situations, including testing the effects of life‐history traits and environmental variables on diversification rates. We report the results of an extensive simulation study to assess the performance of some statistical tests presented here as well as of the estimators of speciation and extinction rates. These latter results suggest the possibility to estimate correctly extinction rate in the absence of fossils. An example with data on fish is presented.     

Rapid cladogenesis in marine fishes revisited

Lineages that underwent rapid cladogenesis are attractive systems for the study of mechanisms underlying taxonomic, ecological, morphological, and behavioral diversification. Recently developed statistical methods provide insights into historical patterns of diversity and allow distinguishing bursts of cladogenesis from stochastic background rates in the presence of confounding factors such as extinction and incomplete taxon sampling. Here, we compare the dynamics of speciation in several marine fish lineages some of which were previously proposed to have undergone significant changes of cladogenesis through time. We tested for evidence of episodes of rapid cladogenesis using the constant rate and Monte Carlo constant rate tests that are robust to incomplete taxon sampling. These tests employ the statistic gamma to measure the relative position of internal node in a chronogram. For the first time, we conducted a comparative analysis to address the behavior of the statistic under different chronogram-constructing methods (Langley-Fitch, nonparametric rate smoothing, and penalized likelihood). Although estimates of gamma sometimes differ widely among methods, acceptance or rejection of the constant rate model within a particular clade appears to be robust to the choice of method. Bursts of cladogenesis were detected in 14 of 34 studied datasets. Some of these were previously proposed to represent marine fish "radiations," whereas others are identified anew. Our results indicate that the wider application of tree shape methods that are able to detect significantly elevated rates of speciation is useful to more precisely define clades that underwent episodes of rapid cladogenesis in marine fish clades. Contrasting the patterns of phylogenetic diversification in marine fish lineages may facilitate the identification of common evolutionary trajectories versus idiosyncrasies, and ultimately help towards a better understanding of the factors and processes underlying speciation in the marine realm.     

Breeding system evolution influenced the geographic expansion and diversification of the core Corvoidea (Aves: Passeriformes)

Birds vary greatly in their life‐history strategies, including their breeding systems, which range from brood parasitism to a system with multiple nonbreeding helpers at the nest. By far the most common arrangement, however, is where both parents participate in raising the young. The traits associated with parental care have been suggested to affect dispersal propensity and lineage diversification, but to date tests of this potential relationship at broad temporal and spatial scales have been limited. Here, using data from a globally distributed group of corvoid birds in concordance with state‐dependent speciation and extinction models, we suggest that pair breeding is associated with elevated speciation rates. Estimates of transition between breeding systems imply that cooperative lineages frequently evolve biparental care, whereas pair breeders rarely become cooperative. We further highlight that these groups have differences in their spatial distributions, with pair breeders overrepresented on islands, and cooperative breeders mainly found on continents. Finally, we find that speciation rates appear to be significantly higher on islands compared to continents. These results imply that the transition from cooperative breeding to pair breeding was likely a significant contributing factor facilitating dispersal across tropical archipelagos, and subsequent world‐wide phylogenetic expansion among the core Corvoidea.     

Into the Andes: multiple independent colonizations drive montane diversity in the Neotropical clearwing butterflies Godyridina

Understanding why species richness peaks along the Andes is a fundamental question in the study of Neotropical biodiversity. Several biogeographic and diversification scenarios have been proposed in the literature, but there is confusion about the processes underlying each scenario, and assessing their relative contribution is not straightforward. Here, we propose to refine these scenarios into a framework which evaluates four evolutionary mechanisms: higher speciation rate in the Andes, lower extinction rates in the Andes, older colonization times and higher colonization rates of the Andes from adjacent areas. We apply this framework to a species‐rich subtribe of Neotropical butterflies whose diversity peaks in the Andes, the Godyridina (Nymphalidae: Ithomiini). We generated a time‐calibrated phylogeny of the Godyridina and fitted time‐dependent diversification models. Using trait‐dependent diversification models and ancestral state reconstruction methods we then compared different biogeographic scenarios. We found strong evidence that the rates of colonization into the Andes were higher than the other way round. Those colonizations and the subsequent local diversification at equal rates in the Andes and in non‐Andean regions mechanically increased the species richness of Andean regions compared to that of non‐Andean regions (‘species‐attractor’ hypothesis). We also found support for increasing speciation rates associated with Andean lineages. Our work highlights the importance of the Andean slopes in repeatedly attracting non‐Andean lineages, most likely as a result of the diversity of habitats and/or host plants. Applying this analytical framework to other clades will bring important insights into the evolutionary mechanisms underlying the most species‐rich biodiversity hotspot on the planet.