光温耦合的中国温带地区旱柳花期时空格局模拟

建立基于温度和光周期驱动的旱柳花期物候模型,旨在寻找影响旱柳花期时空变化的主要气象因子,揭示调控植物开花时间的生态机制,还可为改善柳絮造成的环境污染和花粉过敏等人类健康问题提供参考信息和依据。利用中国气象局农业气象观测网提供的中国温带地区1982-2011年49个站点的旱柳开花始期、盛期和末期观测资料及平行的逐日气象数据,分别对6种模型（简单积温模型、温度三基点模型、八时段温度模型、简单积温-日长模型、温度三基点-日长模型和八时段温度-日长模型）进行了参数率定和假设检验,根据外部检验结果,从中选出针对旱柳3个花期的最优物候模型,进而利用连续地理气象数据和最优物候模型重建了1982-2011年旱柳开花始期、盛期、末期和花期长度的时空变化特征。结果表明：光温耦合的物候模型对旱柳花期的模拟效果和外推效果优于仅基于温度的模型。旱柳开花始期和盛期最优模型均为八时段温度-日长模型,末期为温度三基点-日长模型,说明光周期和温度可能是影响旱柳花期开始、繁盛和结束时间的主要气象因子。同时,优选出的物候模型能够较准确地对不同年份和不同地区的旱柳花期进行模拟及预测。重建的1982-2011年旱柳平均开花始期、盛期和末期日期分别为4月24日、4月28日和5月3日,平均花期长度为9 d,始期、盛期和末期出现日期呈现出从海拔低到高、从南向北、从西向东逐渐推迟的空间格局。1982-2011年旱柳开花始期、盛期和末期在大部分地区呈提前趋势,呈显著提前趋势的面积分别占总面积的49.78%、50.01%和53.40%,花期长度变化差异不显著。     

气候波动对西安39种木本植物展叶始期及其积温需求的影响

过去几十年来暖春等异常气候事件发生的频次和强度显著增加, 使植物春季物候期发生了明显变化。但异常气候事件对植物春季物候积温需求的影响仍不清楚, 限制了对未来物候变化预测精度的提升。该研究利用西安植物园1963-2018年39种木本植物的展叶始期和相应气象数据, 首先根据3-4月平均气温划分了偏冷年、正常年和偏暖年, 对比了冷暖年相对于正常年的展叶始期变化。其次, 利用3种积温算法计算了各植物逐年的展叶始期积温需求, 比较了积温需求在冷暖年和正常年的差异。最后, 评估了传统积温模型在模拟偏冷或偏暖年展叶始期时的误差。结果表明, 所有植物的展叶始期在偏暖年比正常年平均早8.6天, 而在偏冷年平均晚8.2天。在偏暖年, 大多数物种展叶始期的积温需求(以5 ℃为阈值, 平均257.5度日)显著高于正常年(平均195.1度日); 在偏冷年的积温需求(平均168.0度日)低于正常年, 但在统计上差异不显著。就不同类群而言, 古老类群相对于年轻类群在偏冷年的推迟天数更多, 积温需求变化较小, 但在偏暖年无显著差异。不同生活型间物候与积温需求变化也无显著差异。造成偏暖年积温需求增加的可能原因是偏暖年冬季气温较高, 导致植物受到的冷激程度减轻, 从而抑制了后续的展叶。在正常年, 积温模型模拟木本植物展叶始期的平均误差仅为0.4-1.9天。在偏暖年和偏冷年, 模拟值分别比观测值平均早4.1天和晚3.0天。因此在预测未来物候变化时, 需要考虑气候波动条件下的积温需求变化。     

中国温带旱柳物候期对气候变化的时空响应

为了揭示中国温带植物物候随时间变化和植物物候对气候变化响应的空间格局及其生态机制,利用52个站点1986—2005年的旱柳展叶始期、开花始期、果实成熟期、叶变色始期和落叶末期的物候数据,分析其时间序列的线性趋势,并通过建立基于最佳期间日均温的物候时间模型,确定物候发生日期对气温年际变化的响应。在研究的时段内,区域平均旱柳展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期的发生日期分别以-4.2 d/10 a、-3.8 d/10 a和-3.3 d/10 a的平均速率显著提前,而区域平均旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期则分别呈不显著推迟和以2.4 d/10 a的平均速率显著推迟的趋势。单站展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期发生日期的线性趋势以提前为主,显著提前的站点分别占40%、41%和29%;叶变色始期发生日期呈显著提前和显著推迟趋势的站点数相当,分别占17%和19%;落叶末期发生日期的线性趋势以推迟为主,显著推迟的站点占23%。各站展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期发生日期的线性趋势空间序列与相应的最佳期间日均温的线性趋势空间序列之间呈显著负相关,表明一个站点前期气温升高的速率越快,该站这些物候期发生日期提前的速率就越快。在物候期对气温年际变化的响应方面,区域平均春季最佳期间日均温每升高1℃,展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期的发生日期分别提前3.08 d、2.83 d和3.54 d;区域平均秋季最佳期间日均温每升高1℃,叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期分别推迟1.69 d和2.28 d。单站展叶始期和落叶末期发生日期对气温年际变化的响应表现出在温暖地区的站点比在寒冷地区的站点更为敏感的特点。总体上看,基于日均温的物候时间模型对春、夏季物候期的模拟精度明显高于对秋季物候期的模拟精度。建立了基于最佳期间日均温和日累积降水量的改进秋季物候模型,该模型使旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的模拟精度显著提高。由此可见,旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期受到前期气温和降水量的综合影响。     

Seasonal dynamic of plant phenophases in Beijing—A case study in Beijing Botanical Garden

季节性是北京植物景观的典型特征, 而个体物候是植物景观季节动态的基础。该研究基于北京植物园内120种落叶树种的周年物候数据, 对北京植物景观的物候季节动态进行分析。物候观测以中国物候观测法为标准, 采用a、b、c三级物候代码进行物候记录; 数据分析以二十四节气中的候(5日)为基本时间变量, 基于频率分布型法探究北京物候季节划分及其物候构成动态, 基于SPSS 20.0频数分布统计等探究各类物候现象发生期及持续期的时间分布特征等。物候季节划分及物候构成特征结果为: 6-19候为春, 物候期发生频数占全年总量的54.03%, 以发芽、展叶、开花为主要物候特征, 后期有少数树种结果; 20-45候为夏, 物候量占全年的12.95%, 此期全部观测树种完成展叶, 春花树种进入结果期, 并有较少夏花开放及秋色叶出现; 46-59候为秋, 物候量占全年的27.19%, 以秋色叶及落叶物候为主并伴有较少结果和开花物候发生; 60候至次年春季起始前为冬, 其中60-72候物候量仅占全年的0.6%, 全为落叶物候。各类物候期的时间分布特征如下: 展叶物候期分布于3-23候, 华北珍珠梅(Sorbaria kirilowii)、旱柳(Salix matsudana)等展叶最早, 展叶期平均持续3.27候。秋色物候期分布于40-63候, 49-56候为最佳观赏期, 蒙椴(Tilia mongolica)、山杏(Armeniaca sibirica)等最早显秋色; 秋色期平均持续8.2候, 卫矛(Euonymus alatus)、接骨木(Sambucus williamsii)等秋色期较长。叶幕期平均持续44.2候, 糯米条(Abelia chinensis)、旱柳、棣棠(Kerria japonica)等叶幕期最长。花物候期分布于1-53候, 始花期为1-41候, 盛花期平均发生于始花后1.81候, 8-23候为集中观赏期, 蜡梅(Chimonanthus praecox)、迎春(Jasminum nudiflorum)、榆(Ulmus pumila)、毛白杨(Populus tomentosa)等开花最早, 木香薷(Elsholtzia stauntoni)开花最晚; 花期平均持续 6.7候, 华北珍珠梅、木槿(Hibiscus syriacus)、紫薇(Lagerstroemia indica)等夏秋开花树种花期最长。果物候期分布于8-59候, 榆、郁香忍冬(Lonicera fragrantissima)等果实成熟最早; 持果期平均持续29.0候, 果实宿存树种及黑果荚蒾(Viburnum melanocarpum)、‘金叶’风箱果(Physocarpus opulifolius ‘Luteus’)等具有较长的果实观赏期。与20世纪80年代同类研究结果对比分析, 北京2017年的物候季节与30年前相比, 入春提早1候, 夏季延长4候, 入秋延后3候, 秋季缩短2候, 且不同季节持续期长短的差距加大。     

北京植物物候的季节动态特征——以北京植物园为例

季节性是北京植物景观的典型特征, 而个体物候是植物景观季节动态的基础。该研究基于北京植物园内120种落叶树种的周年物候数据, 对北京植物景观的物候季节动态进行分析。物候观测以中国物候观测法为标准, 采用a、b、c三级物候代码进行物候记录; 数据分析以二十四节气中的候(5日)为基本时间变量, 基于频率分布型法探究北京物候季节划分及其物候构成动态, 基于SPSS 20.0频数分布统计等探究各类物候现象发生期及持续期的时间分布特征等。物候季节划分及物候构成特征结果为: 6-19候为春, 物候期发生频数占全年总量的54.03%, 以发芽、展叶、开花为主要物候特征, 后期有少数树种结果; 20-45候为夏, 物候量占全年的12.95%, 此期全部观测树种完成展叶, 春花树种进入结果期, 并有较少夏花开放及秋色叶出现; 46-59候为秋, 物候量占全年的27.19%, 以秋色叶及落叶物候为主并伴有较少结果和开花物候发生; 60候至次年春季起始前为冬, 其中60-72候物候量仅占全年的0.6%, 全为落叶物候。各类物候期的时间分布特征如下: 展叶物候期分布于3-23候, 华北珍珠梅(Sorbaria kirilowii)、旱柳(Salix matsudana)等展叶最早, 展叶期平均持续3.27候。秋色物候期分布于40-63候, 49-56候为最佳观赏期, 蒙椴(Tilia mongolica)、山杏(Armeniaca sibirica)等最早显秋色; 秋色期平均持续8.2候, 卫矛(Euonymus alatus)、接骨木(Sambucus williamsii)等秋色期较长。叶幕期平均持续44.2候, 糯米条(Abelia chinensis)、旱柳、棣棠(Kerria japonica)等叶幕期最长。花物候期分布于1-53候, 始花期为1-41候, 盛花期平均发生于始花后1.81候, 8-23候为集中观赏期, 蜡梅(Chimonanthus praecox)、迎春(Jasminum nudiflorum)、榆(Ulmus pumila)、毛白杨(Populus tomentosa)等开花最早, 木香薷(Elsholtzia stauntoni)开花最晚; 花期平均持续 6.7候, 华北珍珠梅、木槿(Hibiscus syriacus)、紫薇(Lagerstroemia indica)等夏秋开花树种花期最长。果物候期分布于8-59候, 榆、郁香忍冬(Lonicera fragrantissima)等果实成熟最早; 持果期平均持续29.0候, 果实宿存树种及黑果荚蒾(Viburnum melanocarpum)、‘金叶’风箱果(Physocarpus opulifolius ‘Luteus’)等具有较长的果实观赏期。与20世纪80年代同类研究结果对比分析, 北京2017年的物候季节与30年前相比, 入春提早1候, 夏季延长4候, 入秋延后3候, 秋季缩短2候, 且不同季节持续期长短的差距加大。     

西安木本植物物候与气候要素的关系

根据1963–2007年中国物候观测网西安观测站的物候和气温、降水资料,分析了西安站34种木本植物春季展叶始期、展叶盛期、始花期和盛花期等4个关键物候期的变化趋势、对气候变化的阶段响应特点及其与气温、降水变化的关系。结果表明,1963年以来,西安地区气温呈显著上升趋势,特别是1994年前后,气温发生明显突变,上升趋势更加明显;西安春季物候变化主要呈现提前趋势。在45年中,观测到的34种植物的展叶始期平均提前1天,展叶盛期平均提前1.4天,始花期平均提前9天,盛花期平均提前12天;以突变点为界,34个物种1995–2007年的4种物候期比1963–1994年平均提前了4.34±0.77天;春季物候期的早晚主要受春季气温的影响,特别是春季物候期发生当月和上一月的平均气温对物候期的影响最为显著。叶物候和物候发生期前一月的降水量有较为明显的相关关系,花物候期和降水的关系不明显。     

西安和宝鸡木本植物花期物候变化及温度敏感度对比

植物物候是指示生态系统对气候变化响应的重要证据。已有研究多基于代表性站点的物候观测数据研究物候特征及其对气候变化的响应规律。同一气候区内,不同站点的物候变化及对温度变化响应的敏感度是否一致仍需深入探讨。本文选择同属于暖温带湿润区汾渭平原气候区的西安和宝鸡为研究区,利用"中国物候观测网"在两个站点21个共有物种的开花始期和开花末期数据,比较了1987—2016年两站点各植物花期物候变化特征及其对温度变化响应的敏感度差异。结果表明,西安和宝鸡各物种的开花始期和开花末期均以提前趋势为主。大部分物种开花始期在西安的提前趋势(平均趋势-0.57 d/a)明显强于在宝鸡的提前趋势(平均趋势-0.29 d/a),但开花末期趋势差异不显著。除紫薇和迎春的敏感度差异较大外,其他物种开花始期和开花末期的温度敏感度在两站点间非常接近,无显著差异。由此可见,在同一气候区的不同站点,因增温幅度不同,植物的始花期变化存在较大差异,不能用单站点的物候变化反映整个气候区的物候变化。但同一植物在单站点的温度敏感度可以较好的反映同一气候区其他站点的植物物候-气候关系。本文研究结果可为利用有限站点的物候观测数据分析区域物候变化及对气候变化的响应提供科学依据。     

呼和浩特市不同土地利用/覆盖类型对杨树春季物候的影响

城市化引起土地利用方式的变化,在局地、区域以及全球尺度上对环境造成了极为深刻的影响。局地尺度上,大面积的不透水地面以及较少的植被覆盖格局已经导致城郊物候的差异。在内蒙古呼和浩特城区选取新疆杨、青杨和毛白杨作为观测树种,通过定点定株的春季物候及温度的观测,探讨城市土地利用/覆盖对植物物候的影响。结果表明:1)各物候期发生当月(即4月)的平均气温、≥5℃积温、最低气温与各物候期之间呈显著负相关,而日平均最高气温与各物候期之间呈显著正相关。2)在4种不同的土地利用/覆盖类型中,绿地及裸土壤面积与4—6月的月平均气温、平均最低气温及≥5℃积温之间呈显著负相关,不透水面面积与各温度之间呈显著正相关。3)绿地及水体面积与展叶始期呈现显著负相关,而不透水面面积与展叶始期之间呈现显著正相关。研究表明,不同的土地利用/覆盖格局下,其温度之间存在差异,土地利用/覆盖显著地影响着温度的变化,进而影响了植物的春季物候。     

动态物候模型发展及其在全球变化研究中的应用

物候模型可以通过环境因子预测植物物候期,是植物物候学一个重要内容。其中,试图反映生物过程的动态物候模型往往预测比较准确,因此这类物候模型有助于探讨植物在全球变化中的响应。本文把动态物候模型分为3大类,温度物候模型、冷激物候模型和其它物候模型,阐述了每个模型的基本原理和假设,重点论述了常见的温度物候模型.提出物候模型的真实性和广泛性还需要进一步提高,并介绍了温度物候模型在全球变化中运用的几个代表案例,指出目前的物候模型研究刚刚起步,还有许多方面需要进一步深入和开拓。     

中国北方树木秋季物候的过程模拟及其区域分异归因

揭示温带落叶树木秋季物候的发生机理对提高生态系统固碳量和植被生产力的预估精度具有重要意义。该研究利用低温和光周期乘积模型模拟了1981-2014年中国北方温带90余个站点6个树种的叶始变色期和落叶末期, 并对逐站点-物种的最优模型进行了模拟精度评价, 分析了最优模型模拟精度的时空差异及其随水分梯度的空间变化。主要结果如下: (1)在诱导叶片衰老方面, 光周期缩短的影响通常大于温度降低的影响。据此建立的叶始变色期和落叶末期最优模型模拟的平均均方根误差分别为6.9 d和6.0 d, 模拟与观测时间序列呈显著正相关关系的比例分别为71.4%和83.6%; (2)最优模型对区域平均和多年平均叶始变色期和落叶末期模拟的绝对误差小于2.4 d, 但模拟日期的时空变幅通常小于观测日期, 这与秋季物候发生日期的高度时间变异性密切相关; (3)水分条件在一定程度上影响叶片衰老诱导途径的选择, 表现为光周期缩短诱导叶片衰老的叶始变色期最优模型所占比例在干旱和半干旱区大于湿润和半湿润区, 而最优模型的模拟精度在湿润和半湿润区高于干旱和半干旱区。该研究验证了低温和光周期乘积模型在中国温带地区的适用性, 并揭示了水分条件对秋季物候发生机理和模拟精度的影响。     

不同氮处理下速生柳对水体氮的吸收、分配及生理响应

采用水培法,研究了旱柳苗在外源添加不同氮水平(贫氮、中氮、富氮、过氮)的铵态氮(NH+4-N)和硝态氮(NO-3-N)的生长、氮吸收、分配和生理响应。结果表明:一定范围氮浓度的增加能够促进旱柳苗的生长,但过量氮会抑制其生长,且NH+4-N的抑制作用大于NO-3-N;两种氮处理下,旱柳表现出对NH+4-N的吸收偏好,在同一氮水平时,旱柳各部位氮原子百分含量Atom%15N(AT%)、15N吸收量和来自氮源的N%(Ndff%)均为NH+4-N处理大于NO-3-N处理,且随着氮浓度的增加,差异增大,且在旱柳各部位的分布为根﹥茎﹥叶;2种氮素过量和不足均会对旱柳根和叶生理指标产生不同的影响,其中在过氮水平时,NH+4-N和NO-3-N处理下根系活力比对照减少了50.61%和增加了19.53%;在过氮水平时,NH+4-N处理柳树苗根总长、根表面积、根平均直径、根体积和侧根数分别对照下降了30.92%、29.48%、19.44%、27.01%和36.41%,NO-3-N处理柳树苗相应的根系形态指标分别对对照下降了1.66%、5.65%、1.49%、5.06%和25.72%。可见,高浓度NH+4-N对旱柳苗的胁迫影响大于NO-3-N,在应用于水体氮污染修复时可通过改变水体无机氮的比例,削弱其对旱柳的影响,从而提高旱柳对水体氮污染的修复效果。     

Molecular phylogeny ofSalicaceae and closely relatedFlacourtiaceae: Evidence from 5.8 S, ITS 1 and ITS 2 of the rDNA

A ribosomal DNA region, including the entire 5.8S RNA gene and the internal transcribed spacers ITS 1 and ITS 2, was used for studying the phylogeny ofSalicaceae and the relationship betweenSalicaceae andFlacourtiaceae. The length of the ITS regions withinSalicaceae andFlacourtiaceae was similar to that found in other angiosperms. The GC content of both ITS regions was high, varying 62.7-72.2%. The most parsimonious tree clusters the wind-pollinatedChosenia bracteosa among theSalix species, suggesting that it should be included in the genusSalix. The grouping withinSalix leaves subg.Salix as paraphyletic, for which reason the subgeneric division is questionable.Populus was monophyletic and formed a sister group toSalix. The interspecific variation of the ITS sequences was very small inSalicaceae, which is in contradiction to the age of the group according to the evidence from fossil data.Idesia polycarpa fromFlacourtiaceae shows great sequence similarity withSalicaceae, but the analysis of 5.8S rDNA supports monophyly of the four species ofFlacourtiaceae sampled for this study.     

Molecular identification and characterization of Elsinoë murrayae (Synonym: Sphaceloma murrayae) from weeping willow

Sphaceloma murrayae is a significant fungal pathogen of Salix spp. It causes greyish‐white leaf spots, which were reported worldwide except in China. Its morphological characteristics were described in the early literature; however, there is a lack of molecular information pertaining to this fungus. This study identified and characterized three fungal isolates that obtained from weeping willow leaf spots in China. Based on disease symptoms, morphological characteristics and single nomenclature rules for fungi, these isolates are proposed to be new combinations of Elsinoë murrayae (Synonym: S. murrayae). Phylogenetic analysis that combined internal transcribed spacer (ITS), large subunit (LSU), RBP2 and TEF1‐α DNA sequences indicated that E. murrayae isolates and Elsinoë salicina—another Elsinoë sp. isolated from Salix sp.—were distinguishable species. With trypan blue staining and stereomicroscopic observation, we found that large‐scale cell death occurred at 2 days postinoculation (dpi) and slight disease symptoms started at 3 dpi when the conidia were inoculated on Salix babylonica leaves. Pathogenicity analysis revealed that three isolates can successfully infect mature leaves of S. babylonica, Salix fragilis and Salix suchowensis, but not Salix matsudana. In addition, a necrosis‐ and ethylene‐inducing‐like proteins’ (NLP) gene, named EmNLP1, was cloned. The cytotoxicity of EmNLP1 was confirmed by transient assay in tobacco. During infection, EmNLP1 dramatically peaked at 2 dpi and maintained a high‐level expression in the necrosis lesion growing stage.     

Regional unified model‐based leaf unfolding prediction from 1960 to 2009 across northern China

Using first leaf unfolding data of Salix matsudana, Populus simonii, Ulmus pumila, and Prunus armeniaca, and daily mean temperature data during the 1981–2005 period at 136 stations in northern China, we fitted unified forcing and chilling phenology models and selected optimum models for each species at each station. Then, we examined performances of each optimum local species‐specific model in predicting leaf unfolding dates at all external stations within the corresponding climate region and selected 16 local species‐specific models with maximum effective predictions as the regional unified models in different climate regions. Furthermore, we validated the regional unified models using leaf unfolding and daily mean temperature data beyond the time period of model fitting. Finally, we substituted gridded daily mean temperature data into the regional unified models, and reconstructed spatial patterns of leaf unfolding dates of the four tree species across northern China during 1960–2009. At local scales, the unified forcing model shows higher simulation efficiency at 83% of data sets, whereas the unified chilling model indicates higher simulation efficiency at 17% of data sets. Thus, winter temperature increase so far has not yet significantly influenced dormancy and consequent leaf development of deciduous trees in most parts of northern China. Spatial and temporal validation confirmed capability and reliability of regional unified species‐specific models in predicting leaf unfolding dates in northern China. Reconstructed leaf unfolding dates of the four tree species show significant advancements by 1.4–1.6 days per decade during 1960–2009 across northern China, which are stronger for the earlier than the later leaf unfolding species. Our findings suggest that the principal characteristics of plant phenology and phenological responses to climate change at regional scales can be captured by phenological and climatic data sets at a few representative locations.     

Flight responses in a wind tunnel of the parasitoid Microplitis croceipes to three spring and three summer host plants of Heliothis spp.

Flight responses of the parasitoid, Microplitis croceipes (Cresson) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) to two phenological stages of spring host plants (crimson clover, Trifolium incarnatum L., hairy vetch, Vicia villosa Corbiere, and cutleaf geranium, Geranium dissectum L.) and summer host plants (cotton, Gossypium hirsutum L., sorghum, Sorghum bicolor L., and soybean Glycine max (L.) Merr.) of Heliothis virescens (F.), were measured in a dual choice situation in a wind tunnel. Preflowering clover was more attractive than preflowering geranium, followed by preflowering vetch. Clover was preferred over geranium in flowering stages as well. No within species differences were detected for the two phenological stages. Preflowering and flowering cotton and soybean were preferred over preflowering and flowering sorghum. The findings could be important in pre-determining release sites for M. croceipes in the field.     

Gas Exchange,Photochemical Efficiency,and Leaf Water Potential in Three Salix Species

Gas exchange, photochemical efficiency, and leaf water potential (_l) of Salix matsudana (non-indigenous species), S. microstachya and S. gordejevii (indigenous species) were studied in Hunshandak Sandland, China. _l of all the three species decreased from 06:00 to 12:00, and increased afterwards. S. matsudana showed higher values of _l than others. Net photosynthetic rate (P _N) and stomatal conductance (g _s) of S. matsudana were the lowest among all, with the maximum P _N at 10:00 being 75% of that of S. gordejevii. Compared with the indigenous species, the non-indigenous S. matsudana had also lower transpiration rate (E) and water use efficiency (WUE). The values of F_v/F_m in all the species were lower from 06:00 to 14:00 than those after 14:00, indicating an obvious depression in photochemical efficiency of photosystem 2 in both non-indigenous and native species. However, it was much more depressed in S. matsudana, the non-indigenous tree. P _N was positively correlated to g _s and negatively related to _l. The relationship between g _s and vapour pressure difference (VPD) was exponential, while negative linear correlation was found between g _s and _l.     

Modeling daily flowering probabilities: expected impact of climate change on Japanese cherry phenology

Understanding the drivers of phenological events is vital for forecasting species’ responses to climate change. We developed flexible Bayesian survival regression models to assess a 29‐year, individual‐level time series of flowering phenology from four taxa of Japanese cherry trees (Prunus spachiana, Prunus × yedoensis, Prunus jamasakura, and Prunus lannesiana), from the Tama Forest Cherry Preservation Garden in Hachioji, Japan. Our modeling framework used time‐varying (chill and heat units) and time‐invariant (slope, aspect, and elevation) factors. We found limited differences among taxa in sensitivity to chill, but earlier flowering taxa, such as P. spachiana, were more sensitive to heat than later flowering taxa, such as P. lannesiana. Using an ensemble of three downscaled regional climate models under the A1B emissions scenario, we projected shifts in flowering timing by 2100. Projections suggest that each taxa will flower about 30 days earlier on average by 2100 with 2–6 days greater uncertainty around the species mean flowering date. Dramatic shifts in the flowering times of cherry trees may have implications for economically important cultural festivals in Japan and East Asia. The survival models used here provide a mechanistic modeling approach and are broadly applicable to any time‐to‐event phenological data, such as plant leafing, bird arrival time, and insect emergence. The ability to explicitly quantify uncertainty, examine phenological responses on a fine time scale, and incorporate conditions leading up to an event may provide future insight into phenologically driven changes in carbon balance and ecological mismatches of plants and pollinators in natural populations and horticultural crops.     

小叶桦花序生长物候及其生态适应意义

小叶桦(Betula microphylla)是一种典型的荒漠和山地乔木植物,在中国仅分布于新疆。为了明确小叶桦花序生长物候规律及发育特征,该研究对小叶桦进行了花序物候观测,分析其生长规律及果实结籽情况。结果显示:小叶桦雄花序为越年生殖器官,物候周期为345d,其中营养生长期154d、休眠期158d、开花生长期33d;雌花序与果序为当年生殖器官,物候期为105d,其中雌花序生长期24d、果序生长期90d。虽然雄花序比雌花序的生长周期明显较长,但开花授粉均在4月中下旬,雄花序散粉期和雌花序可授粉期之间具有较高的同步性和协调性,表现出集中开花授粉模式,同时这种开花模式在自然条件下,果序的结籽数和结籽率分别为220和76.7%,种子库中具有活力的种子约每平米4万粒,表明小叶桦在荒漠极端环境中能顺利完成有性生殖过程。