Should hunting mortality mimic the patterns of natural mortality?

With growing concerns about the impact of selective harvesting on natural populations, researchers encourage managers to implement harvest regimes that avoid or minimize the potential for demographic and evolutionary side effects. A seemingly intuitive recommendation is to implement harvest regimes that mimic natural mortality patterns. Using stochastic simulations based on a model of risk as a logistic function of a normally distributed biological trait variable, we evaluate the validity of this recommendation when the objective is to minimize the altering effect of harvest on the immediate post-mortality distribution of the trait. We show that, in the absence of compensatory mortality, harvest mimicking natural mortality leads to amplification of the biasing effect expected after natural mortality, whereas an unbiased harvest does not alter the post-mortality trait distribution that would be expected in the absence of harvest. Although our approach focuses only on a subset of many possible objectives for harvest management, it illustrates that a single strategy, such as hunting mimicking natural mortality, may be insufficient to address the complexities of different management objectives with potentially conflicting solutions.     

Can road mortality limit populations of pool-breeding amphibians?

We integrated road maps, traffic volume data, and pool locations in a modeling study to estimate the potential effects of road mortality on populations of pool-breeding spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum Shaw). Population projections based on spotted salamander life tables imply that an annual risk of road mortality for adults of >10% can lead to local population extirpation; mitigation efforts (tunnels, road closures, and other measures) should seek to reduce road mortality rates to below this threshold. For central and western Massachusetts, we estimated that salamanders would be exposed to at least this threshold level of risk at 22–73% of populations (assuming a 100 vs. 500 m migration distance, respectively). We conclude that road mortality can be a significant source of additive mortality for individual spotted salamanders in many parts of the species’ range. Efforts to prevent such mortality by transportation planners are likely warranted strictly on a biological basis in areas with road densities >2.5 km per km² of landscape and traffic volumes >250 vehicles/lane/day within the migration range of a breeding population of spotted salamanders.     

Genetic determinants of mortality. Can findings from genome-wide association studies explain variation in human mortality?

Twin studies have estimated the heritability of longevity to be approximately 20–30 %. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed a large number of determinants of morbidity, but so far, no new polymorphisms have been discovered to be associated with longevity per se in GWAS. We aim to determine whether the genetic architecture of mortality can be explained by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with common traits and diseases related to mortality. By extensive quality control of published GWAS we created a genetic score from 707 common SNPs associated with 125 diseases or risk factors related with overall mortality. We prospectively studied the association of the genetic score with: (1) time-to-death; (2) incidence of the first of nine major diseases (coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, diabetes, dementia, lung, breast, colon and prostate cancers) in two population-based cohorts of Dutch and Swedish individuals (N = 15,039; age range 47–99 years). During a median follow-up of 6.3 years (max 22.2 years), we observed 4,318 deaths and 2,132 incident disease events. The genetic score was significantly associated with time-to-death [hazard ratio (HR) per added risk allele = 1.003, P value = 0.006; HR 4th vs. 1st quartile = 1.103]. The association between the genetic score and incidence of major diseases was stronger (HR per added risk allele = 1.004, P value = 0.002; HR 4th vs. 1st quartile = 1.160). Associations were stronger for individuals dying at older ages. Our findings are compatible with the view of mortality as a complex and highly polygenetic trait, not easily explainable by common genetic variants related to diseases and physiological traits.     

Predators and parasites of temporary row crop pests: Agents of irreplaceable mortality or scavengers acting prior to other mortality factors?

A study was conducted with the cabbage looper,Trichoplusia ni (Hübner), to determine: 1) whether naturally occurring entomophagous arthropods impart irreplaceable mortality to the cabbage looper in celery, and 2) whether entomophagous arthropods are present to impart such mortality toT. ni eggs and 1st instar larvae when the crop is sensitive to the pest. Predator evaluation involved 1) insecticidal + cage exclusion, 2) insecticidal exclusion alone, 3) D-vac removal of predators, and 4) sticky barrier exclusion. In all the exclusion regimes survival of eggs and larvae was higher than in the unexcluded control. Analysis of life table data was consistent with the hypothesis that some mortality of eggs due to parasitism byTrichogramma and of medium-larvae by other hymenopterous parasites was not replaceable by other mortality factors. The time of appearance of the first marketable petiole was correlated with both the height of the tallest petiole and the number of petioles on the plant. Peak densities ofTrichogramma and important predators occurred before the first marketable petiole appeared and declined to low levels as harvest approached.     

Growth and mortality of individual plants as a function of “available area”

Summary We looked at the relationship between available area, as defined by Thiessen polygons around individual plants, and plant size and mortality in even-aged green-house populations of Lapsana communis L. Polygon area was a good predictor of plant weight in these populations. After nine weeks growth, just prior to the onset of self-thinning, the dry weight of plants was directly proportional to the square root of polygon area. After the onset of selfthinning, plant weight appeared to be directly related to polygon area to the 3/2 power. Plants in small polygons were much more likely to die than those in larger areas. Thinning changed the frequency distribution of polygon sizes from highly skewed and unequal to normal and more equal, while inequality in surviving plant sizes did not appear to be affected by thinning.     

Selective mortality of a coral reef damselfish: role of predator–competitor synergisms

Phenotypic variability within cohorts of juvenile organisms can serve as the basis for selective mortality. Previous studies have demonstrated the important role that predators play in this process but not the impact of competitors on selective predation. We use a combination of lab and field studies to evaluate the effect of the presence of adult competitor damselfish (Dascyllus aruanus and Pomacentrus moluccensis; family Pomacentridae) on the selective mortality of newly-arrived (settled) lemon damselfish (P. moluccensis) by resident predator fishes (Pseudochromis fuscus Pseudochromidae and Cheilodipterus quinquelineatus Apogonidae). Lab trials consisted of mesocosm experiments in which the behaviour, mortality, and physiological condition (measured as lipid content) of surviving P. moluccensis settlers from each of three treatments: (1) predators absent, (2) predators present, and (3) predators and competitors present, were compared. The field study involved stocking newly settled P. moluccensis on natural bommies (patch reefs) which had either been subject to a partial removal of resident fish (predators and competitors) or left alone. Results indicated there was very strong condition-based selective mortality in both the lab and field trials. In both cases there was a strong positive relationship between mortality and the lipid content of surviving fish; implying low-condition fish were selectively removed. The mesocosm trials indicated that the strength of mortality as well as condition selectivity was higher when competitors were present than when they were absent. Behavioural observations in the mesocosm study suggest that attention by juvenile P. moluccensis to the movements and occasional chases of the competitors (especially D. aruanus) reduced their vigilance to the predators. These results suggest the important and interactive roles which condition of newly settled reef fish and interspecific competition can play in the outcomes of post-settlement predation. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

An eight-parameter model of human mortality—The single decrement case

Developed in this paper is an eight-parameter model of human mortality. A step-wise nonlinear least-squares procedure for estimating the parameters from abridged life tables is also described and implemented. Used for purposes of illustration were nine period life tables, ranging from 1900 to 1977, for the United States white male population. The agreement between the observed and calculated survival functions in the nine life tables was very good. Apart from its phenomenological interest, the model provides an effective means for calculating interpolations and extrapolations of abridged life tables, which are useful making population projections and in computer graphics. Research support in part by National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Grant R01 HD 09571.     

Modifiers of the temperature–mortality association in Shanghai, China

Various factors can modify the health effects of temperature. Prior findings about modifiers are inconsistent, and such studies have been conducted mostly in developed countries. We conducted a time-series analysis to examine the modifying effect of gender, age and education on the association between temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai, China, using 4 years (2001–2004) of daily data. A natural spline model was used to analyze the data. Elderly subjects were found to be more vulnerable to temperature health effects compared with younger people. We observed no significant modifying effect of gender or education level. These findings may provide useful information for local governments seeking to take steps to protect vulnerable sub-populations.     

Injury and short term mortality of benthic stream fishes – a comparison of collection techniques

Small benthic fish such as darters are frequently collected for stream inventory purposes or to document habitat use, with the intent of releasing the fish unharmed following enumeration. The purpose of this study was to examine the injury and short term mortality (8 d) of greenside darters captured by live wire pot trapping and electrofishing, using two different settings (80Hz, 6ms and 60Hz, 6ms). Two different electrofishing techniques were used, spot electrofishing and sweep electrofishing. Short term mortality was highest for fish collected in live pot traps. Abrasion from the wire traps appeared to remove scales and irritate the skin. By the conclusion of the study, 74% of the fish caught in live pot traps were dead from fungal lesions. Greenside darters captured by all electrofishing methods exhibited low short term mortality (< 10%). The only initial mortality, hemorrhaging and spinal damage, occurred for fish collected using 80Hz, 6ms sweep technique, although the short term mortality was still far less than that observed among trapped fish. The spot electrofishing technique resulted in no injury, with either of the settings. Live trapping produces little initial mortality, and thus may be wrongly viewed as a safe alternative for the collection of threatened benthic stream fishes, compared to electrofishing. We suggest that researchers studying small fish in warmwater systems use caution when collecting and handling fish for subsequent release. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

What makes a species common? No evidence of density-dependent recruitment or mortality of the sea urchin Diadema antillarum after the 1983–1984 mass mortality

A potential consequence of individuals compensating for density-dependent processes is that rare or infrequent events can produce profound and long-term shifts in species abundance. In 1983–1984 a mass mortality event reduced the numbers of the abundant sea urchin Diadema antillarum by 95–99 % throughout the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Following this event, the abundance of macroalgae increased and the few surviving D. antillarum responded by increasing in body size and fecundity. These initial observations suggested that populations of D. antillarum could recover rapidly following release from food limitation. In contrast, published studies of field manipulations indicate that this species had traits making it resistant to density-dependent effects on offspring production and adult mortality; this evidence raises the possibility that density-independent processes might keep populations at a diminished level. Decadal-scale (1983–2011) monitoring of recruitment, mortality, population density and size structure of D. antillarum from St John, US Virgin Islands, indicates that population density has remained relatively stable and more than an order of magnitude lower than that before the mortality event of 1983–1984. We detected no evidence of density-dependent mortality or recruitment since this mortality event. In this location, model estimates of equilibrium population density, assuming density-independent processes and based on parameters generated over the first decade following the mortality event, accurately predict the low population density 20 years later (2011). We find no evidence to support the notion that this historically dominant species will rebound from this temporally brief, but spatially widespread, perturbation.     

Patterns of mortality and causes of death among Rhode Island Jews, 1979–1981

Abstract

Using information provided by institutions handling Jewish deaths, this study identified 735 deaths among Jewish residents of Rhode Island during 1979–81. Official death records then provided data on the characteristics of the deceased and on cause of death, allowing comparisons of Jewish/non‐ Jewish patterns of mortality and cause of death, as well as analysis of differentials among the Jewish decedents, taking account of birthplace and occupation. The findings indicate that relatively fewer Jewish males die at ages below 65, and more at ages 85 and over than is true of total white males. Jewish females exhibit an age‐at‐death pattern more similar to that of all white women. These sex differences characterize cause of death as well. Differences are more pronounced between Jewish and non‐Jewish males than between the female groups. Most noteworthy, Jewish male deaths from diabetes are significantly higher and deaths from respiratory disease significantly lower than among total white men. Differentials in age of death between Jewish native‐born and foreign‐born are largely a function of their differential age composition, and socioeconomic status showed no clear relation to age at death or cause of death.     

Covariates of child mortality in Mali: does the health-seeking behaviour of the mother matter?

This paper uses data from the 1995/96 Mali DHS survey to examine the importance of a wide range of socioeconomic, behavioural and biodemographic factors in the determination of child mortality in Mali, with a special focus on maternal education and behaviour. The central hypothesis of the study is that advances in maternal education would contribute little to child survival in settings such as Mali's urban and rural communities where progress in educational attainment is not matched with improvements in other aspects of socioeconomic development such as economic growth, job creation, financial security and public health and medical resources. Units of analysis are children born in the past 5 years to DHS respondents (women aged 15-45) who were married at the time of the survey. The Cox proportional hazards regression technique has been used to estimate the net effects of variables included as covariates. The findings indicate that the health-seeking behaviour of the mother matters more than maternal education in explaining the observed differences in infant and child mortality in Mali's urban and rural areas.     

Cancer mortality 1981–2016 and contribution of specific cancers to current socioeconomic inequalities in all cancer mortality: A population-based study

BackgroundIn many high-income countries cancer mortality rates have declined, however, socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have widened over time with those in the most deprived areas bearing the greatest burden. Less is known about the contribution of specific cancers to inequalities in total cancer mortality.MethodsUsing high-quality routinely collected population and mortality records we examine long-term trends in cancer mortality rates in Scotland by age group, sex, and area deprivation. We use the decomposed slope and relative indices of inequality to identify the specific cancers that contribute most to absolute and relative inequalities, respectively, in total cancer mortality.ResultsCancer mortality rates fell by 24 % for males and 10 % for females over the last 35 years; declining across all age groups except females aged 75+ where rates rose by 14 %. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer death. Mortality rates of lung cancer have more than halved for males since 1981, while rates among females have almost doubled over the same period.ConclusionCurrent relative inequalities in total cancer mortality are dominated by inequalities in lung cancer mortality, but with contributions from other cancer sites including liver, and head and neck (males); and breast (females), stomach and cervical (younger females). An understanding of which cancer sites contribute most to inequalities in total cancer mortality is crucial for improving cancer health and care, and for reducing preventable cancer deaths.     

Does the decline in child injury mortality vary by social class? A comparison of class specific mortality in 1981 and 1991.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the decline in child injury death rates between 1981 and 1991 varied by social class. DESIGN: Comparison of class specific child injury death rates for 1979, 1980, 1982, and 1983, with those for the four years 1989-92. SETTING: England and Wales. SUBJECTS: Children aged 0-15 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Death rates from injury and poisoning. RESULTS: Death rates from injury and poisoning have fallen for children in all social classes. The decline for children in social classes IV and V (21% and 2% respectively), however, is smaller than that for children in social classes I and II (32% and 37%). As a result of the differential decline in injury death rates, socioeconomic mortality differentials have increased. In the four years 1979-80 and 1982-83 the injury death rate for children in social class V was 3.5 times that of children in social class I. For the four years 1989-92 the injury death rate for children in social class V was 5.0 times that of children in social class I. Poisson regression modelling showed that the trend in the decline in death rates across the social classes was unlikely to have arisen by chance alone. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic inequalities in child injury death rates have increased. If these gradients persist, the Health of the Nation''s target is likely to be met for children in the non-manual social classes but not for those in the manual social classes.     

Effect of changing mortality on the working life of American men and women, 1970–1990

Abstract

The mortality patterns of men and women of working age, in terms of the major causes of death, have changed over the past three decades. This study assesses the extent to which mortality among persons of working age represents an economic loss to society. This economic loss is measured by the per capita loss of productive working life, defined as the number of years, on the average, a person can expect to be an active member of the labor force. Causes of death affecting primarily older Americans (heart disease, cancer, stroke) had a relatively small and declining impact on the working lives of men and women. Major causes of death affecting the young (motor vehicle accidents, homicide, AIDS), although accounting for fewer deaths, were responsible for many more years of lost productivity. Gender and socioeconomic differentials in mortality suggest that different strategies are necessary for future reductions in lost work‐years.     

Does increasing mortality change the response of fish populations to environmental fluctuations?

Fluctuations of fish populations abundances are shaped by the interplay between population dynamics and the stochastic forcing of the environment. Age-structured populations behave as a filter of the environment. This filter is characterised by the species-specific life cycle and life-history traits. An increased mortality of mature individuals alters these characteristics and may therefore induce changes in the variability of populations. The response of a generic age-structured model was analysed to investigate the expected changes in the fluctuations of fish populations in response to decreased adult survival. These expectations were then tested on an extensive dataset. In accordance with theory, the analyses revealed that decreased adult survival and mean age of spawners were linked to an increase in the relative importance of short-term fluctuations. It suggests that intensive exploitation can lead to a change in the variability of fish populations, an issue of central interest from both conservation and management perspectives.     

Synoptic analysis of heat-related mortality in Sydney,Australia, 1993–2001

Exposure to extremely hot weather has been associated with increased mortality. Temporal Synoptic Index is an effective method used to analyze the relationship between mortality and combined weather factors. The aim of this study is to examine the short-term effect of ambient heat on mortality in Sydney during the warmest 6-month period (October-March) for the years 1993-2001. Eleven synoptic categories were related to daily mortality rates in Sydney. Two distinctive warm categories were associated with significantly higher mortality rates. Hot, dry and relatively rare Synoptic Category 7 (SC7) days showed the highest daily mortality rates, followed by warm and humid SC3 days, which occurred more frequently. Increased mortality was more pronounced among the elderly population, and gender-stratified analysis showed women to be more vulnerable. Mortality on the day of the weather event was higher than 1 or 2 days after the adverse synoptic situation. Ozone and particulate matter smaller than 10 microm were found at high concentrations in SC3 and SC7, respectively, but their impact on mortality was not clear. The population of Sydney was found to be vulnerable to high temperatures, with a lower susceptibility than those of some cities in the USA and Europe.     

Weight loss and mortality: A gender-specific analysis of the Tromsø study

Background: Weight loss has been associated with increased mortality, but findings have been inconsistent.Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the association between weight loss and mortality, with a focus on gender differences.Methods: This was a population-based cohort study in northern Norway of adults, aged 20 to 54 years in 1979, who participated in 2 or 3 consecutive health surveys in 1979–80, 1986–87, and 1994–95. Weight and height were measured at each survey. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios for mortality between levels of body mass index (BMI) change during 11 years of follow-up. Participants with prior cardiovascular disease or cancer, or incident cancer within the first 2 years of follow-up, were excluded, as were participants who were pregnant, had missing data, or did not give written consent.Results: A total of 4881 men and 5051 women participated in the present study. The mean age at start of follow-up was 50.8 years (range, 35–70 years) in men and 49.2 years (range, 35–65 years) in women. In men, weight loss was associated with increased all-cause, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality. The hazard ratio for men for all-cause mortality with a 10-year BMI decrease of 2 kg/m² versus a BMI increase of 1 kg/m² was 2.09 (95% CI, 1.56–2.81). The association was not significantly modified by initial BMI, age, smoking status, or self-reported attempts of weight loss, or by exclusion of subjects with self-reported poor health, diabetes mellitus, high blood pressure, or high alcohol intake. In women, no association between BMI change and mortality was observed. However, in the subgroup of women who reported no weight-loss attempts, BMI change was significantly associated with mortality risk (P = 0.022).Conclusions: In this study of a Norwegian population, weight loss was associated with excess mortality in men in all subgroups of weight-loss attempts, daily smoking, and overweight. In women, the only significant effect of BMI change on mortality was observed in those who reported no weight-loss attempts. The observed findings could not be explained by preexisting disease.     

Association of household demographic variables with child mortality in Côte d'Ivoire

The associations between household demographic variables and mortality of children aged less than five years were investigated using data from the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) of the Republic of C?te d'Ivoire, Western Africa. Of the total of 1992 children born to women included in the study population during the 5-year period preceding the survey, 260 (13%) had died and 1732 (87%) were alive at the time of the survey. Logistic regression analyses used to compare biosocial variables between the deceased and living children showed that the sex of the child, birth interval and mother's occupation were associated with child's survival status. After adjusting for their effects, household demographic variables (i.e. number of household members, number of household members under 5 years [HM-5Y], number of household members 5 years or older [HM+5Y], the proportion of HM-5Y among all household members, and the ratio of HM-5Y to HM+5Y) were shown to be associated with the child's survival status. This study provided insight into the effects of intra-household competition among children and availability of care-givers as potential determinants of child survival. The results indicate that improvement of the childcare environment and reproductive intervention are necessary to reduce child mortality in West African countries.