Climate change and Saharan dust drive recent cladoceran and primary production changes in remote alpine lakes of Sierra Nevada,Spain

Recent anthropogenic climate change and the exponential increase over the past few decades of Saharan dust deposition, containing ecologically important inputs of phosphorus (P) and calcium (Ca), are potentially affecting remote aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we examine changes in cladoceran assemblage composition and chlorophyll‐a concentrations over the past ~150 years from high‐resolution, well‐dated sediment cores retrieved from six remote high mountain lakes in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Southern Spain, a region affected by Saharan dust deposition. In each lake, marked shifts in cladoceran assemblages and chlorophyll‐a concentrations in recent decades indicate a regional‐scale response to climate and Saharan dust deposition. Chlorophyll‐a concentrations have increased since the 1970s, consistent with a response to rising air temperatures and the intensification of atmospheric deposition of Saharan P. Similar shifts in cladoceran taxa across lakes began over a century ago, but have intensified over the past ~50 years, concurrent with trends in regional air temperature, precipitation, and increased Saharan dust deposition. An abrupt increase in the relative abundance of the benthic cladoceran Alona quadrangularis at the expense of Chydorus sphaericus, and a significant increase in Daphnia pulex gr. was a common trend in these softwater lakes. Differences in the magnitude and timing of these changes are likely due to catchment and lake‐specific differences. In contrast with other alpine lakes that are often affected by acid deposition, atmospheric Ca deposition appears to be a significant explanatory factor, among others, for the changes in the lake biota of Sierra Nevada that has not been previously considered. The effects observed in Sierra Nevada are likely occurring in other Mediterranean lake districts, especially in softwater, oligotrophic lakes. The predicted increases in global temperature and Saharan dust deposition in the future will further impact the ecological condition of these ecosystems.     

Structuring features of lake districts: landscape controls on lake chemical responses to drought

1. Within a lake district of relatively homogeneous geomorphology, the responses of lakes to climate are influenced by the complexity of the hydrogeologic setting, position in the landscape, and lake‐specific biological and physical features. We examined lake chemical responses to drought in surface water‐ and groundwater‐dominated districts to address two general questions. (1) Are spatial patterns in chemical dynamics among lakes uniform and synchronous within a lake district, suggesting broad geomorphic controls; variable in a spatially explicit pattern, with synchrony related to landscape position, suggesting hydrologic flowpath controls; or spatially unstructured and asynchronous, suggesting overriding control by lake‐specific factors? (2) Are lake responses to drought a simple function of precipitation quantity or are they dictated by more complex interactions among climate, unique lake features, and hydrologic setting? 2. Annual open‐water means for epilimnetic concentrations of chloride, calcium, sulfate, ANC, DOC, total nitrogen, silica, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll a measured between 1982 and 1995 were assembled for lakes in the Red Lake and ELA districts of north‐western Ontario, the Muskoka – Dorset district in south‐central Ontario, and the Northern Highland district of Wisconsin. Within each district, we compared responses of lakes classified by landscape position into highland or lowland, depending on relative location within the local to regional hydrologic flow system. Synchrony, defined as a measure of the similarity in inter‐annual dynamics among lakes within a district, was quantified as the Pearson product‐moment correlation (r) between two lakes with observations paired by year. To determine if solute concentrations were directly related to interannual variations in precipitation quantity, we used regression analysis to fit district‐wide slopes describing the relationship between each chemical variable and annual (June to May) and October to May (Oct–May) precipitation. 3. Among lakes in each of the three Ontario districts, the pattern of chemical response to interannual shifts in precipitation was spatially uniform. In these surface water‐ dominated districts, solute concentrations were generally a simple function of precipitation. Conservative solutes, like calcium and chloride, tended to be more synchronous and were negatively related to precipitation. Solutes such as silica, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll a, which are influenced by in‐lake processes, were less synchronous and relationships with precipitation tended to be positive or absent. 4. In the groundwater‐dominated Northern Highland lakes of Wisconsin, we observed spatial structure in drought response, with lowland lakes more synchronous than highland lakes. However, there was no evidence for a direct relationship between any solute and precipitation. Instead, increases in the concentration of the conservative ion calcium during drought were not followed by a symmetrical return to pre‐drought conditions when precipitation returned to normal or above‐average values. 5. For calcium, time lags in recovery from drought appeared related to hydrologic features in a complex way. In the highland Crystal Lake, calcium concentrations tracked lake stage inversely, with a return to pre‐drought concentrations and lake stage five years after the drought. This pattern suggests strong evaporative controls. In contrast, after five years of normal precipitation, calcium in the lowland Sparkling Lake had not returned to pre‐drought conditions despite a rebound in lake stage. This result suggests that calcium concentrations in lowland lakes were controlled more by regional groundwater flowpaths, which track climatic signals more slowly. 6. Temporal dynamics driven by climate were most similar among lakes in districts that have a relatively simple hydrology, such as ELA. Where hydrologic setting was more complex, as in the groundwater‐dominated Northern Highland of Wisconsin, the expression of climate signals in lakes showed lags and spatial patterns related to landscape position. In general, we expect that landscape and lake‐specific factors become increasingly important in lake districts with more heterogeneous hydrogeology, topography or land use. These strong chemical responses to climate need to be considered when interpreting the responses of lakes to other regional disturbances.     

Effects of drought and pluvial periods on fish and zooplankton communities in prairie lakes: systematic and asystematic responses

The anticipated impacts of climate change on aquatic biota are difficult to evaluate because of potentially contrasting effects of temperature and hydrology on lake ecosystems, particularly those closed‐basin lakes within semiarid regions. To address this shortfall, we quantified decade‐scale changes in chemical and biological properties of 20 endorheic lakes in central North America in response to a pronounced transition from a drought to a pluvial period during the early 21st century. Lakes exhibited marked temporal changes in chemical characteristics and formed two discrete clusters corresponding to periods of substantially different effective moisture (as Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI). Discriminant function analysis (DFA) explained 90% of variability in fish assemblage composition and showed that fish communities were predicted best by environmental conditions during the arid interval (PDSI 相似文献   

Input of organochlorine compounds by snow to European high mountain lakes

1.  Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) can be trapped by and accumulate in cold regions. To understand POP accumulation in temperate high mountain lakes, we collected samples of snow from the catchments of several high mountain lakes in Europe.
2.  Organochlorine compounds (OCs) are regularly found in snow collected in European high mountain sites. Polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) were found in all samples examined. Hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) are also common whereas DDTs and hexachlorobenzene were found less frequently.
3.  Comparison of the concentrations of these pollutants in snow with OC levels in the waters of these lakes or atmospheric deposition during cold periods shows that the snowpack constitutes a significant seasonal PCB reservoir in all catchments and that snow trapping is a major mechanism for the incorporation of HCHs in the lakes situated in the coldest sites, e.g. Gossenköllesee in the Alps.
4.  Correlation of the concentrations of the PCB congeners in snow versus mean annual winter temperature shows higher accumulation at lower temperatures. The less volatile PCBs exhibit higher temperature dependences than the more volatile congeners. This trend differs from altitudinal dependences observed in other sites such as Canada and may be related to the specific range of winter temperature in each area of study.     

Regional coherence of climatic and lake thermal variables of four lake districts in the Upper Great Lakes Region of North America

1. Within a region with common climatic conditions, lake thermal variables should exhibit coherent variability patterns to the extent to which they are not influenced by lake specific features such as morphometry and water clarity. We tested the degree of temporal coherence in interannual variability for climatic variables (air temperature and solar radiation) among four lake districts in the Upper Great Lakes Region. We also tested the degree of coherence of lake thermal variables (near‐surface temperature, eplimnetic temperature, hypolimnetic temperature and thermocline depth) for lakes within these districts. 2. Our four lake districts included the Experimental Lakes Area in north‐western Ontario, the Dorset Research Centre area north of Toronto, Ontario, the Northern Highland Lake District in northern Wisconsin, and the Yahara Lakes near Madison in southern Wisconsin. Seventeen lakes were analyzed for lake thermal variables dependent on stratification. Another five lakes were added for the analysis of near‐surface temperature. 3. The analysis tested whether for monthly and summer means, the climate (air temperature and solar radiation) across the four lake districts was coherent interannually and whether variables which measure the thermal structure of the lakes were coherent interannually among lakes within each lake district and across the four lake districts. 4. Temporal coherence was estimated by the correlation between lake districts for meteorological variables and between lake pairs for lake thermal variables. Mean coherence and the percentage of correlations exceeding the 5% significance level were derived both within and between lake districts for lake thermal variables. 5. Across the four lake districts, summer mean air temperature was highly coherent while summer solar radiation was less coherent. Approximately 60–80% of the interannual variation in mean summer air temperature at a site occurred across the entire region. Less than 45% of the variation in solar radiation occurred across sites. 6. Epilimnetic temperature and the near‐surface temperature were highly coherent both within and between lake districts. The coherence of thermocline depth within and between lake districts was weaker. Hypolimnetic temperature was not coherent between lake districts for most lake pairs. It was coherent among lakes within some lake districts. 7. The influences of local weather and differences among lakes in water clarity are discussed in the context of differences in levels of coherence among lake thermal variables and among lake pairs for a given variable.     

Expanded spatial extent of the Medieval Climate Anomaly revealed in lake‐sediment records across the boreal region in northwest Ontario

Multi‐decadal to centennial‐scale shifts in effective moisture over the past two millennia are inferred from sedimentary records from six lakes spanning a ~250 km region in northwest Ontario. This is the first regional application of a technique developed to reconstruct drought from drainage lakes (open lakes with surface outlets). This regional network of proxy drought records is based on individual within‐lake calibration models developed using diatom assemblages collected from surface sediments across a water‐depth gradient. Analysis of diatom assemblages from sediment cores collected close to the near‐shore ecological boundary between benthic and planktonic diatom taxa indicated this boundary shifted over time in all lakes. These shifts are largely dependent on climate‐driven influences, and can provide a sensitive record of past drought. Our lake‐sediment records indicate two periods of synchronous signals, suggesting a common large‐scale climate forcing. The first is a period of prolonged aridity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, c. 900‐1400 CE). Documentation of aridity across this region expands the known spatial extent of the MCA megadrought into a region that historically has not experienced extreme droughts such as those in central and western north America. The second synchronous period is the recent signal of the past ~100 years, which indicates a change to higher effective moisture that may be related to anthropogenic forcing on climate. This approach has the potential to fill regional gaps, where many previous paleo‐lake depth methods (based on deeper centrally located cores) were relatively insensitive. By filling regional gaps, a better understanding of past spatial patterns in drought can be used to assess the sensitivity and realism of climate model projections of future climate change. This type of data is especially important for validating high spatial resolution, regional climate models.     

Relationships among recent Alpine Cladocera remains and their environment: implications for climate-change studies

Our objective was to assess the potential of Cladocera from mountain lakes for climate reconstruction. We related Cladocera from surface sediments of Alpine lakes (1,502–2,309 m asl) to 29 abiotic environmental variables using statistical methods. The environmental dataset included water chemistry, lake depth, and bi-hourly water-temperature logs, which were used to assess mean monthly water temperatures, dates of freezing and breakup, spring and autumn mixing. We found 14 different Cladocera of the families Bosminidae, Daphniidae, and Chydoridae. Lakes without Cladocera (eight lakes) were cold and/or ultra-oligotrophic, whereas lakes with planktonic and littoral Cladocera (19 lakes) were warmer and/or less oligotrophic. Lakes with only littoral Cladocera (18 lakes) had intermediate water temperatures/trophy. Changes in Cladocera assemblages were related to changes in climate, nutrients, and/or alkalinity. We found a climate threshold at which Bosminidae disappeared in 95% of the lakes. For climate-change research, we propose studying Cladocera along transects that include climatic thresholds. Guest editor: Piet Spaak Cladocera: Proceedings of the 7th International Symposium on Cladocera     

Effects of Bioavailable Heavy Metal Species,Arsenic, and Acid Drainage from Mine Tailings on a Microbial Community Sampled Along a Pollution Gradient in a Freshwater Ecosystem

Sediment and water samples representing a pollution gradient in a long, narrow lake polluted at one end by heavy metals, arsenic, and acid drainage from mine tailings, together with samples from an unpolluted reference lake, were analyzed to determine effects of pollutants on the microbial community of the polluted lake. Ribosomal ribonucleic acid, fatty acid, and phospholipid analyses, along with assays of CO₂ production, denitrification, and enzyme activities, were performed to characterize the microflora; and environmental conditions were defined by various physicochemical analyses, including determination of bioavailable metal species. Mine waste pollution fostered the growth of Holophagal Acidobacteria, green sulphur bacteria, and α-Proteobacteria but inhibited numerous other types of microorganisms, reducing the overall productivity, biomass, and biodiversity of the microflora. The beneficial effects imply toleration of pollutants, suppression of competing or antagonistic species, and utilization of biogenic sulphide; and the toxic effects are attributable to bioavailable metals, arsenic, and sulphuric acid produced by oxidation of sulphides. The bioavailability and toxicity of sediment-bound metals were evidently increased by acidification, elevation of sediment Eh, and inhibition of metal-immobilizing bacteria by pollutants but were decreased by metal-scavenging oxyhydroxides, sulphide, and organic matter. Metal toxicity also depended on specific metal properties (e.g., electronegativity), providing a basis for inferring mechanisms of toxicity and oxidation states of metals and explaining differences in relative toxicity. The pollutants harmed the ecosystem as a whole by inhibiting microorganisms that performed crucial ecological functions, notably oxygen-releasing photosynthesis, decomposition and humification of organic matter, nutrient recycling, and control of metal availability.     

Environmental factors prevail over dispersal constraints in determining the distribution and assembly of Trichoptera species in mountain lakes

Aiming to elucidate whether large‐scale dispersal factors or environmental species sorting prevail in determining patterns of Trichoptera species composition in mountain lakes, we analyzed the distribution and assembly of the most common Trichoptera (Plectrocnemia laetabilis, Polycentropus flavomaculatus, Drusus rectus, Annitella pyrenaea, and Mystacides azurea) in the mountain lakes of the Pyrenees (Spain, France, Andorra) based on a survey of 82 lakes covering the geographical and environmental extremes of the lake district. Spatial autocorrelation in species composition was determined using Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM). Redundancy analysis (RDA) was applied to explore the influence of MEM variables and in‐lake, and catchment environmental variables on Trichoptera assemblages. Variance partitioning analysis (partial RDA) revealed the fraction of species composition variation that could be attributed uniquely to either environmental variability or MEM variables. Finally, the distribution of individual species was analyzed in relation to specific environmental factors using binomial generalized linear models (GLM). Trichoptera assemblages showed spatial structure. However, the most relevant environmental variables in the RDA (i.e., temperature and woody vegetation in‐lake catchments) were also related with spatial variables (i.e., altitude and longitude). Partial RDA revealed that the fraction of variation in species composition that was uniquely explained by environmental variability was larger than that uniquely explained by MEM variables. GLM results showed that the distribution of species with longitudinal bias is related to specific environmental factors with geographical trend. The environmental dependence found agrees with the particular traits of each species. We conclude that Trichoptera species distribution and composition in the lakes of the Pyrenees are governed predominantly by local environmental factors, rather than by dispersal constraints. For boreal lakes, with similar environmental conditions, a strong role of dispersal capacity has been suggested. Further investigation should address the role of spatial scaling, namely absolute geographical distances constraining dispersal and steepness of environmental gradients at short distances.     

A mass-balance model for phosphorus in lakes accounting for biouptake and retention in biota

SUMMARY 1. A new mass-balance model was developed to predict phosphorus fluxes to, within and from lakes and lake concentrations of phosphorus.
2. The model is driven by data easily accessed from standard monitoring programmes or maps, so it should be useful in many contexts of lake management.
3. The phosphorus model gives seasonal (weekly) variations and accounts for all fundamental abiotic/biotic interactions and feedbacks for lakes in general for phosphorus. The model has been developed within the framework of a more comprehensive ecosystem model, LakeWeb, which accounts for production values and biomasses of nine functional groups of organisms (phytoplankton, bacterioplankton, herbivorous and predatory zooplankton, prey and predatory fish, zoobenthos, macrophytes and benthic algae).
4. The LakeWeb-model has been critically tested in a wide limnological domain and shown to predict very well. By using this model, it is possible for the first time to predict realistic values of biouptake and retention of phosphorous in biota in lakes on a weekly basis.     

Sedimentation in fluvial and lacustrine environments

Sedimentation in rivers is dominated by a complex set of physical processes, associated with the unidirectional flow of water. Variations in these processes give rise to different fluvial channel types, whose character can commonly be recognised in the ancient record. Chemical and biological processes are comparatively unimportant in fluvial sedimentation. In contrast, physical, chemical or biological processes can each dominate sedimentation in lakes. Physical (clastic) deposition dominates in high-latitude and mountain lakes (in which chemical and biological activity are low), and in lakes with high relief of the drainage basin and lake floor. Its variety reflects a range of processes influenced by river inflow, wave and current action, thermal and density effects. Economic benefits from the study of lake and river sedimentation include both resource and environmental aspects. An example is given of a mercury pollution study in a fluvial ecosystem. It shows that return to background levels can take place within a relatively short interval after cessation of pollutant input.     

Large-scale climatic signatures in lakes across Europe: a meta-analysis

Recent studies have highlighted the impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on water temperature, ice conditions, and spring plankton phenology in specific lakes and regions in Europe. Here, we use meta-analysis techniques to test whether 18 lakes in northern, western, and central Europe respond coherently to winter climate forcing, and to assess the persistence of the winter climate signal in physical, chemical, and biological variables during the year. A meta-analysis approach was chosen because we wished to emphasize the overall coherence pattern rather than individual lake responses. A particular strength of our approach is that time-series from each of the 18 lakes were subjected to the same robust statistical analysis covering the same 23-year period. Although the strongest overall coherence in response to the winter NAO was exhibited by lake water temperatures, a strong, coherent response was also exhibited by concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus and soluble reactive silicate, most likely as a result of the coherent response exhibited by the spring phytoplankton bloom. Lake nitrate concentrations showed significant coherence in winter. With the exception of the cyanobacterial biomass in summer, phytoplankton biomass in all seasons was unrelated to the winter NAO. A strong coherence in the abundance of daphnids during spring can most likely be attributed to coherence in daphnid phenology. A strong coherence in the summer abundance of the cyclopoid copepods may have been related to a coherent change in their emergence from resting stages. We discuss the complex nature of the potential mechanisms that drive the observed changes.     

On Branchinecta orientalis Sars (Anostraca) in the Himalayas

We report finding the Anostraca, Branchinecta orientalis Sars, 1901, in a temporary lake in the Nepalese Himalayas. The lake, referred to as a non-permanent water collection by Löffler, was sampled in the framework of a research project on lakes in remote areas (Ev-K2-CNR Project), aimed at studying the transport of pollutants on a global scale. The species identified, never reported before for this region, was found only in one water body out of a total of 34 sampled, identified as Lake 70 in the Ev-K2-CNR Cadastre. Resting eggs were present in the sediments. A list of species making up the zooplankton, together with some information on the hydrochemistry and climate of the region, is provided.     

Spatial Variation among Lakes within Landscapes: Ecological Organization along Lake Chains

Although limnologists have long been interested in regional patterns in lake attributes, only recently have they considered lakes connected and organized across the landscape, rather than as spatially independent entities. Here we explore the spatial organization of lake districts through the concept of landscape position, a concept that considers lakes longitudinally along gradients of geomorphology and hydrology. We analyzed long-term chemical and biological data from nine lake chains (lakes in a series connected through surface or groundwater flow) from seven lake districts of diverse hydrologic and geomorphic settings across North America. Spatial patterns in lake variables driven by landscape position were surprisingly common across lake districts and across a wide range of variables. On the other hand, temporal patterns of lake variables, quantified using synchrony, the degree to which pairs of lakes exhibit similar dynamics through time, related to landscape position only for lake chains with lake water residence times that spanned a wide range and were generally long (close to or greater than 1 year). Highest synchrony of lakes within a lake chain occurred when lakes had short water residence times. Our results from both the spatial and temporal analyses suggest that certain features of the landscape position concept are robust enough to span a wide range of seemingly disparate lake types. The strong spatial patterns observed in this analysis, and some unexplained patterns, suggest the need to further study these scales and to continue to view lake ecosystems spatially, longitudinally, and broadly across the landscape.     

The ice cover on small and large lakes: scaling analysis and mathematical modelling

Lake ice cover is described by its thickness, temperature, stratigraphy and overlying snow layer. When the ratio of ice thickness to lake size is above ～10^?5, the ice cover is stable; otherwise, mechanical forcing breaks the ice cover, and ice drifting takes place with lead-opening and ridging. This transition enables a convenient distinction to be made between small and large lakes. The evolution of the ice cover on small lakes is solved by a wholly thermodynamic model, but a coupled mechanical–thermodynamic model is needed for large lakes. The latter indicates a wide distribution of ice thickness, and frazil ice may be formed in openings. Ecological conditions in large lakes differ markedly from those in small lakes because vertical mixing and oxygen renewal may take place during the ice season, and the euphotic zone penetrates well into the water column in thin ice regions. Mesoscale sea ice models are applicable to large lakes with only minor tuning of the key parameters. These model systems are presented and analysed using Lake Peipsi as an example. As the climate changes, the transition size between small and large lake ice cover will change.     

Acid rain recovery may help to mitigate the impacts of climate change on thermally sensitive fish in lakes across eastern North America

From the 1970s to 1990s, more stringent air quality regulations were implemented across North America and Europe to reduce chemical emissions that contribute to acid rain. Surface water pH slowly increased during the following decades, but biological recovery lagged behind chemical recovery. Fortunately, this situation is changing. In the past few years, northeastern US fish populations have begun to recover in lakes that were historically incapable of sustaining wild fish due to acidic conditions. As lake ecosystems across the eastern United States recover from acid deposition, the stress to the most susceptible populations of native coldwater fish appears to be shifting from acidification effects to thermal impacts associated with changing climate. Extreme summer temperature events – which are expected to occur with increasing frequency in the coming century – can stress and ultimately kill native coldwater fish in lakes where thermal stratification is absent or highly limited. Based on data from northeastern North America, we argue that recovery from acid deposition has the potential to improve the resilience of coldwater fish populations in some lakes to impacts of climate change. This will occur as the amount of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the water increases with increasing lake pH. Increased DOC will reduce water clarity and lead to shallower and more persistent lake thermoclines that can provide larger areas of coldwater thermal refuge habitat. Recovery from acidification will not eliminate the threat of climate change to coldwater fish, but secondary effects of acid recovery may improve the resistance of coldwater fish populations in lakes to the effects of elevated summer temperatures in historically acidified ecosystems. This analysis highlights the importance of considering the legacy of past ecosystem impacts and how recovery or persistence of those effects may interact with climate change impacts on biota in the coming decades.     

A survey of the biota, environment and use for recreation of twelve lakes in Snowdonia

This study was undertaken to examine the present condition of the lakes and to assess the likely consequences of increased use for recreation. Some physical and chemical aspects of the lakes and their waters were measured and the macrophytes, phytoplankton and larger invertebrates were surveyed in June and July 1973. The type of recreation enjoyed at each lake was also recorded. The lakes were all oligotrophic but the three larger ones had higher levels of nitrogen and in one case, zinc in their waters; these lakes were also the most intensively used for recreation. The variations between the biota of the different lakes, as summarized by means of ordination and classification techniques, were found to be related to the sizes of the lakes and in some cases to the lake chemistry. The relationships between the groups of living organisms, and between them and their environment, were examined more closely by means of a series of regression analyses, the results of which also suggested that lake size, as well as chemistry, had an important effect on the biota. We concluded that man had affected the lake chemistry and we predicted that if recreation activity was allowed to increase the biota of the smaller lakes would be degraded by pollution and by mechanical damage to the macrophytes.     

Classification, assessment and trophic reconstruction of Danish lakes using chironomids

1. Surface-sediment assemblages of subfossil chironomid head capsules from fifty-four primarily shallow and nutrient-rich Danish lakes were analysed using multivariate numerical techniques. The species data, comprising forty-one chironomid taxa, were compared to environmental monitoring data in order to establish a relationship between chironomid faunal composition and lake trophic state.
2. The subfossil assemblages were compared to the chironomid bathymetric distributions along transects from four lakes. Correspondence analysis and similarity coefficients showed that the subfossil assemblages, sampled in the lake centre, reflect the chironomid communities in the littoral at a depth of 2–7 m.
3. Two-way indicator species analysis (TWINSPAN) was used to classify the Danish lakes into five groups defined by trophic state, lake depth and pH. Eighteen chironomid taxa showed significant differences in abundance among the five groups. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) showed the chlorophyll a concentration ([Chl a ]) and Secchi depth to be the variables best correlated to the faunal data, and fourteen taxa were significantly correlated to [Chl a ].
4. The strong correlation between chironomid data and the ln-transformed ([Chl a ]) was used to create a weighted averaging (WA) model to infer lake trophic state. Several models were tested by cross validation (leave-one-out jack-knifing), and a simple WA model using inverse de-shrinking had a RMSEP_jack of 0.65 (ln units) and a r ²_jack of 0.67.
5. The results can be used in the assessment and reconstruction of lake trophic state for long-term monitoring and palaeoecological investigations of shallow, temperate lakes in the mesotrophic to hypertrophic nutrient range.     

Empirical modelling of lake water-temperature relationships: a comparison of approaches

1.  As a result of the role that temperature plays in many aquatic processes, good predictive models of annual maximum near-surface lake water temperature across large spatial scales are needed, particularly given concerns regarding climate change. Comparisons of suitable modelling approaches are required to determine their relative merit and suitability for providing good predictions of current conditions. We developed models predicting annual maximum near-surface lake water temperatures for lakes across Canada using four statistical approaches: multiple regression, regression tree, artificial neural networks and Bayesian multiple regression.
2.  Annual maximum near-surface (from 0 to 2 m) lake water-temperature data were obtained for more than 13 000 lakes and were matched to geographic, climatic, lake morphology, physical habitat and water chemistry data. We modelled 2348 lakes and three subsets thereof encompassing different spatial scales and predictor variables to identify the relative importance of these variables at predicting lake temperature.
3.  Although artificial neural networks were marginally better for three of the four data sets, multiple regression was considered to provide the best solution based on the combination of model performance and computational complexity. Climatic variables and date of sampling were the most important variables for predicting water temperature in our models.
4.  Lake morphology did not play a substantial role in predicting lake temperature across any of the spatial scales. Maximum near-surface temperatures for Canadian lakes appeared to be dominated by large-scale climatic and geographic patterns, rather than lake-specific variables, such as lake morphology and water chemistry.