Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900–1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.     

植物物候与气候研究进展

植物物候及其变化是多个环境因子综合影响的结果,其中气候是最重要、最活跃的环境因子。主要从气候环境角度分析了植物物候与气候以及气候变化间的相互关系,概述了国内外有关植物物候及物候模拟等方面的研究进展。表明,温度是影响物候变化最重要的因子;同时,水分成为胁迫因子时对物候的影响也十分重要。近50a左右,世界范围内的植物物候呈现出了春季物候提前,秋季物候推迟或略有推迟的特征,从而导致了多数植物生长季节的延长,并成为全球物候变化的趋势。全球气候变暖改变了植物开始和结束生长的日期,其中冬季、春季气温的升高使植物的春季物候提前是植物生长季延长的主要原因。目前对物候学的研究方向主要集中在探讨物候与气候变化之间的关系,而模型模拟是定量研究气候变化与植物物候之间关系的重要方式,国内外已经开发出多种物候模型来分析气候驱动与物候响应之间的因果关系。另外遥感资料的应用也为物候模型研究提供了新的方向。物候机理研究、物候与气候关系以及物候模型研究将是研究的重点。     

Solar history and human affairs

Historical research at different time scales from 10s to 1000s of years suggests that solar variation may have influences on global climate. Climate change has had significant impacts on cultures during these periods. Very high solar output during the Medieval Optimum would be expected to have particularly large impacts on peoples of that time as sunspot numbers are thought to have reached one third again any values observed in the current century. Certain other impacts can be inferred from modern populations. For example, the higher parts of the solar cycle are associated with greater incidence of skin melanoma.     

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts,processes and potential future impacts

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance‐induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well‐defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta‐analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land‐cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground‐based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub‐)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks.     

Why decadal to century timescale palaeoclimate data are needed to explain present‐day patterns of biological diversity and change

The current distribution of species, environmental conditions and their interactions represent only one snapshot of a planet that is continuously changing, in part due to human influences. To distinguish human impacts from natural factors, the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, since the Last Glacial Maximum, are often used to determine whether patterns of diversity today are artefacts of past climate change. In the absence of high‐temporal resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions, this is generally done by assuming that past climate change occurred at a linear pace between widely spaced (usually, ≥1,000 years) climate snapshots. We show here that this is a flawed assumption because regional climates have changed significantly across decades and centuries during glacial–interglacial cycles, likely causing rapid regional replacement of biota. We demonstrate how recent atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the climate of the past 21,000 years can provide credible estimates of the details of climate change on decadal to centennial timescales, showing that these details differ radically from what might be inferred from longer timescale information. High‐temporal resolution information can provide more meaningful estimates of the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, the location and timing of drivers of physiological stress, and the extent of novel climates. They also produce new opportunities to directly investigate whether short‐term climate variability is more important in shaping biodiversity patterns rather than gradual changes in long‐term climatic means. Together, these more accurate measures of past climate instability are likely to bring about a better understanding of the role of palaeoclimatic change and variability in shaping current macroecological patterns in many regions of the world.     

Range expansion during the Pleistocene drove morphological radiation of the fir genus (Abies,Pinaceae) in the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau and Himalayas

Range expansion caused by climate oscillations in the past probably promoted morphological radiation in a few plant groups. In this study, we aim to test this hypothesis through phylogeographical analysis of the cold‐tolerant fir genus (Abies) in the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) and Himalayas, where it comprises 12 described species. We examined sequence variation in two maternally inherited mitochondrial (mt) DNA fragments (nad5‐4 and nad7‐1) and two paternally inherited plastid DNA fragments (trnS‐G and trnL‐F) for 733 individuals from 75 populations of the species in a monophyletic group. Only six mtDNA haplotypes were recovered, but five were shared between multiple species and one occurred at a high frequency, providing strong evidence of range expansion. Forty‐three plastid DNA haplotypes were detected, 19 of which were shared between species and three occurred at high frequency. Network, mismatch and Bayesian skyline plot analyses of all plastid DNA haplotypes from this clade clearly suggested range expansion. This expansion was dated as having occurred during the longest and most extensive glaciation in the Pleistocene. Our results therefore supported the range expansion hypothesis for this clade of Abies during the Pleistocene; expansion probably drove the morphological radiation of the clade in the QTP and Himalayas, although it remains unclear whether the different morphotypes should be acknowledged as independent, reproductively isolated species. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 179 , 444–453.     

Examples of phenological change, past and present, in UK farming

This paper examines a large number of agricultural and other phenological records kept by a farmer in Sussex, UK from 1980 to 2000. Twenty five of the 29 events were earlier in 1990‐2000 than in 1980‐1989. The average advancement of all 29 events was 5.5 days at a time when January‐March mean temperature increased by 1.4°C. In comparing the events with monthly mean temperatures, 18 of the events were significantly negatively related to temperatures of the three calendar months preceding the mean event date. Response rates to temperature varied between 4 and 12 days earlier for each °C warmer. A comparison with historical farming records reveals that many of the current farming events appear as responsive to temperature now as they were 200 years ago.     

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅴ.宁夏农业气候资源变化特征

基于1961—2009年宁夏21个气象站点的气象资料,分析了宁夏各区农业气候资源的时空变化趋势.结果表明：研究期间,宁夏各地气温逐渐升高,呈北高南低的空间分布特征,年均气温的气候倾向率为0.4 ℃·(10 a)^-1;大部分地区年降水量呈逐渐减少趋势,年降水量的气候倾向率为4.26 mm·(10 a)^-1;无霜期和作物生长季天数随着气候变暖逐渐延长;≥10 ℃积温在3200 ℃·d以上的区域向南扩展,宁夏适宜种植中晚熟水稻的区域有所扩大;2001—2009年,宁夏大部分地区适宜种植冬小麦,全区各地几乎都适宜种植春小麦;宁夏南部山区各地7月平均气温≤20 ℃的区域面积逐渐缩小,适宜种植马铃薯的地域也随之缩小.     

Climate change and Australia: Trends,projections and impacts

Abstract This review summarizes recent research in Australia on: (i) climate and geophysical trends over the last few decades; (ii) projections for climate change in the 21st century; (iii) predicted impacts from modelling studies on particular ecosystems and native species; and (iv) ecological effects that have apparently occurred as a response to recent warming. Consistent with global trends, Australia has warmed ～0.8°C over the last century with minimum temperatures warming faster than maxima. There have been significant regional trends in rainfall with the northern, eastern and southern parts of the continent receiving greater rainfall and the western region receiving less. Higher rainfall has been associated with an increase in the number of rain days and heavy rainfall events. Sea surface temperatures on the Great Barrier Reef have increased and are associated with an increase in the frequency and severity of coral bleaching and mortality. Sea level rises in Australia have been regionally variable, and considerably less than the global average. Snow cover and duration have declined significantly at some sites in the Snowy Mountains. CSIRO projections for future climatic changes indicate increases in annual average temperatures of 0.4–2.0°C by 2030 (relative to 1990) and 1.0–6.0°C by 2070. Considerable uncertainty remains as to future changes in rainfall, El Niño Southern Oscillation events and tropical cyclone activity. Overall increases in potential evaporation over much of the continent are predicted as well as continued reductions in the extent and duration of snow cover. Future changes in temperature and rainfall are predicted to have significant impacts on most vegetation types that have been modelled to date, although the interactive effect of continuing increases in atmospheric CO₂ has not been incorporated into most modelling studies. Elevated CO₂ will most likely mitigate some of the impacts of climate change by reducing water stress. Future impacts on particular ecosystems include increased forest growth, alterations in competitive regimes between C3 and C4 grasses, increasing encroachment of woody shrubs into arid and semiarid rangelands, continued incursion of mangrove communities into freshwater wetlands, increasing frequency of coral bleaching, and establishment of woody species at increasingly higher elevations in the alpine zone. Modelling of potential impacts on specific Australian taxa using bioclimatic analysis programs such as bioclim consistently predicts contraction and/or fragmentation of species' current ranges. The bioclimates of some species of plants and vertebrates are predicted to disappear entirely with as little as 0.5–1.0°C of warming. Australia lacks the long‐term datasets and tradition of phenological monitoring that have allowed the detection of climate‐change‐related trends in the Northern Hemisphere. Long‐term changes in Australian vegetation can be mostly attributed to alterations in fire regimes, clearing and grazing, but some trends, such as encroachment of rainforest into eucalypt woodlands, and establishment of trees in subalpine meadows probably have a climatic component. Shifts in species distributions toward the south (bats, birds), upward in elevation (alpine mammals) or along changing rainfall contours (birds, semiarid reptiles), have recently been documented and offer circumstantial evidence that temperature and rainfall trends are already affecting geographic ranges. Future research directions suggested include giving more emphasis to the study of climatic impacts and understanding the factors that control species distributions, incorporating the effects of elevated CO₂ into climatic modelling for vegetation and selecting suitable species as indicators of climate‐induced change.     

Long-term glacier monitoring at the LTER test sites Hintereisferner,Kesselwandferner and Jamtalferner and other glaciers in Tyrol: a source of ancillary information for biological succession studies

Background: Some 3% of the area of Tyrol is covered by glaciers. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, these glaciers have shrunk by about 50%, providing open ground for succession of biota. As the exposed bare ground becomes available for colonisation, pedogenesis, and primary succession, glaciological data provide important information for the analysis of chronosequences of biological succession.

Aims: This paper summarises long-term surveillance studies and provides information on annual glacier changes with a focus on the three Tyrolean LTER sites Hintereisferner, Kesselwandferner and Jamtalferner, together with two additional glaciers.

Methods: Annual changes in the length of 54 glaciers were recorded, with the first measurements made in 1891. In addition, the long-term mass balance data of five glaciers are presented. Two of these glaciers have been surveyed since 1953.

Results: Between 1901 and 2008, the temperature during the ablation season (May to September) increased by 1.7 °C (measured at one site in Vent). In the same period, winter (October to April) accumulation showed no significant trends. Measurements of length changes showed a general glacier retreat, with limited advances in the 1920s and 1980s. The mass balance measurements indicated mass losses since the 1980s at increasing rates, especially after 2000. The reaction of glaciers to the climate signal differed in timing and magnitude according to their topographic properties.

Conclusions: Although the Tyrolean glaciers have generally retreated since the end of the Little Ice Age, the magnitude and pace of advance or recession differs from glacier to glacier. This is important to consider in studies on succession of biological communities in glacier forelands     

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化V.宁夏农业气候资源变化特征

基于1961-2009年宁夏21个气象站点的气象资料,分析了宁夏各区农业气候资源的时空变化趋势.结果表明:研究期间,宁夏各地气温逐渐升高,呈北高南低的空间分布特征,年均气温的气候倾向率为0.4℃·(10 a)-1;大部分地区年降水量呈逐渐减少趋势,年降水量的气候倾向率为4.26 mm·(10 a)-1;无霜期和作物生长季天数随着气候变暖逐渐延长;≥10℃积温在3200℃·d以上的区域向南扩展,宁夏适宜种植中晚熟水稻的区域有所扩大;2001-2009年,宁夏大部分地区适宜种植冬小麦,全区各地几乎都适宜种植春小麦;宁夏南部山区各地7月平均气温≤20℃的区域面积逐渐缩小,适宜种植马铃薯的地域也随之缩小.     

Human land uses reduce climate connectivity across North America

Climate connectivity, the ability of a landscape to promote or hinder the movement of organisms in response to a changing climate, is contingent on multiple factors including the distance organisms need to move to track suitable climate over time (i.e. climate velocity) and the resistance they experience along such routes. An additional consideration which has received less attention is that human land uses increase resistance to movement or alter movement routes and thus influence climate connectivity. Here we evaluate the influence of human land uses on climate connectivity across North America by comparing two climate connectivity scenarios, one considering climate change in isolation and the other considering climate change and human land uses. In doing so, we introduce a novel metric of climate connectivity, ‘human exposure’, that quantifies the cumulative exposure to human activities that organisms may encounter as they shift their ranges in response to climate change. We also delineate potential movement routes and evaluate whether the protected area network supports movement corridors better than non‐protected lands. We found that when incorporating human land uses, climate connectivity decreased; climate velocity increased on average by 0.3 km/year and cumulative climatic resistance increased for ~83% of the continent. Moreover, ~96% of movement routes in North America must contend with human land uses to some degree. In the scenario that evaluated climate change in isolation, we found that protected areas do not support climate corridors at a higher rate than non‐protected lands across North America. However, variability is evident, as many ecoregions contain protected areas that exhibit both more and less representation of climate corridors compared to non‐protected lands. Overall, our study indicates that previous evaluations of climate connectivity underestimate climate change exposure because they do not account for human impacts.     

淮河流域双季稻气候适宜度及其变化趋势

选取淮河流域33个县市1961-2005年的逐日气象数据,运用模糊数学和空间插值方法,对淮河流域双季稻的温度、降水、日照和气候适宜度进行了研究.结果表明:温度和降水是淮河流域双季稻生长的关键气候因子,早、晚稻各气候因子适宜度地域差异明显;其中,早稻气候适宜度由中部平原向东部沿海和西部山区递减,晚稻气候适宜度由南向北递减;温度适宜度以0.01(10a)~(-1)的速率上升,说明温度对淮河流域水稻生长发育产生正效应;日照适宜度以>0.02(10a)~(-1)的速率下降,总的气候适宜度呈下降趋势.

Abstract：

Based on the 1961-2005 meteorological data from thirty three stations in Huaihe River basin, and by using fuzzy mathematics and spatial interpolation methods, the climate suitability of double-cropping rice in this basin were studied. Temperature and precipitation were the key climate factors affecting the growth of double-cropping rice, and the climate suitability of both early-and late rice had strong regional characters. The climate suitability of early rice decreased from central plain area to east coast and west mountain area, whereas that of late rice decreased from south area to north area. Temperature suitability increased at a rate of 0. 01 (10a)~(-1), sug-gesting that temperature had positive effects on the growth and development of double-cropping rice in Huaihe River Basin. Sunlight suitability decreased at a rate higher than 0. 02 (10a)~(-1).The overall climate suitability had a decreasing trend.     

Integrating climate change and habitat fragmentation to identify candidate seed sources for ecological restoration

Anthropogenic change (climate change and habitat fragmentation) is driving a growing view that local seed collections may need to be supplemented with nonlocal seed as a strategy to bolster genetic diversity and thus increase evolutionary potential of plantings. While this strategy is becoming widely promoted, empirical support is limited, and there is a lack of accessible research tools to assist in its experimental testing. We therefore provide the Provenancing Using Climate Analogues (PUCA) framework that integrates the principles of the climate‐adjusted provenancing strategy with concepts from population genetics (i.e. potential inbreeding in small fragmented populations) as both a research and operational‐ready tool to guide the collection of nonlocal seed. We demonstrate the application of PUCA using the Midlands of Tasmania, Australia, a region that is currently undergoing large‐scale ecological restoration. We highlight multiple nonlocal seed sources for testing by identifying actual species distribution records that currently occupy environments similar to that projected to occur at the restoration site in the future. We discuss the assumptions of PUCA and the ecological considerations that need to be tested when moving nonlocal genotypes across the landscape.     

An objective tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient index for studies of south Amazon dry-season climate variability and change

Future changes in meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Atlantic could influence Amazon dry-season precipitation by shifting the patterns of moisture convergence and vertical motion. Unlike for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, there are no standard indices for quantifying this gradient. Here we describe a method for identifying the SST gradient that is most closely associated with June–August precipitation over the south Amazon. We use an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) integrations forced by observed SST from 1949 to 2005. A large number of tropical Atlantic SST gradient indices are generated randomly and temporal correlations are examined between these indices and June–August precipitation averaged over the Amazon Basin south of the equator. The indices correlating most strongly with June–August southern Amazon precipitation form a cluster of near-meridional orientation centred near the equator. The location of the southern component of the gradient is particularly well defined in a region off the Brazilian tropical coast, consistent with known physical mechanisms. The chosen index appears to capture much of the Atlantic SST influence on simulated southern Amazon dry-season precipitation, and is significantly correlated with observed southern Amazon precipitation.We examine the index in 36 different coupled atmosphere–ocean model projections of climate change under a simple compound 1% increase in CO₂. Within the large spread of responses, we find a relationship between the projected trend in the index and the Amazon dry-season precipitation trends. Furthermore, the magnitude of the trend relationship is consistent with the inter-annual variability relationship found in the AGCM simulations. This suggests that the index would be of use in quantifying uncertainties in climate change in the region.     

Climate,environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10–15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector–pathogen systems.     

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.     

Introduction to "In Focus: Global Change and Adaptation in Local Places"

ABSTRACT   In recognition of unavoidable changes that human actions are producing in our environment, the term adaptation has become ubiquitous in the environmental and climate-change literature. Human adaptation is a field with a significant history in anthropology, yet anthropological contributions to the burgeoning field of climate change remain limited. This "In Focus" section presents studies of local adaptations to climate variation and change. Each is concerned with current environmental challenges and future environmental change, and each study is placed within a wider context that includes processes of globalization and integration into market economies, formal and informal institutions, and disasters. These studies highlight the challenges involved in understanding complex adaptations under conditions of stress. They also illustrate how anthropologists engage the larger climate-change and human-adaptation discussions and enhance our ability to respond to the challenges of a changing environment.